From the USGS here, I thought their mission was the United States, hence the US in USGS. Seems they’ve expanded the mission to Africa now. Disappointingly, there’s no mention of land use change, agricultural practices, or deforestation issues like the one contributing to the glacier melt on Kilimanjaro. Evapotranspiration is a very important issue for local moisture content and convective cloud development.
More Frequent Drought Likely in Eastern Africa
The increased frequency of drought observed in eastern Africa over the last 20 years is likely to continue as long as global temperatures continue to rise, according to new research published in Climate Dynamics.
This poses increased risk to the estimated 17.5 million people in the Greater Horn of Africa who currently face potential food shortages.
Scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of California, Santa Barbara, determined that warming of the Indian Ocean, which causes decreased rainfall in eastern Africa, is linked to global warming. These new projections of continued drought contradict previous scenarios by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicting increased rainfall in eastern Africa.
This new research supports efforts by the USGS and the U.S. Agency for International Development to identify areas of potential drought and famine in order to target food aid and help inform agricultural development, environmental conservation, and water resources planning.
“Global temperatures are predicted to continue increasing, and we anticipate that average precipitation totals in Kenya and Ethiopia will continue decreasing or remain below the historical average,” said USGS scientist Chris Funk. “The decreased rainfall in eastern Africa is most pronounced in the March to June season, when substantial rainfall usually occurs. Although drought is one reason for food shortages, it is exacerbated by stagnating agricultural development and continued population growth.”
As the globe has warmed over the last century, the Indian Ocean has warmed especially fast. The resulting warmer air and increased humidity over the Indian Ocean produce more frequent rainfall in that region. The air then rises, loses its moisture during rainfall, and then flows westward and descends over Africa, causing drought conditions in Ethiopia and Kenya.
“Forecasting precipitation variability from year to year is very difficult, and research on the links between global change and precipitation in specific regions is ongoing so that more accurate projections of future precipitation can be developed,” said University of California, Santa Barbara, scientist Park Williams. “It is also important to note that while sea-surface temperatures are expected to continue to increase in the Indian Ocean and cause an average decrease in rainfall in eastern Africa, there will still occasionally be very wet years because there are many factors that influence precipitation.”
Scientists compiled existing datasets on temperature, wind speed and precipitation to see what was driving climate variations in the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean region. Most of the Indian Ocean warming is linked to human activities, particularly greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions. The Indian Ocean has warmed especially fast because it is quickly being encroached upon by the Tropical Warm Pool, which is an area with the warmest ocean surface temperatures of anywhere on earth.
This research supports efforts by the USGS and the U.S. Agency for International Development through the Famine Early Warning Systems Network. FEWS NET is a decision support system that helps target more than two billion dollars of food aid to more than 40 countries each year. Through this system, scientists are helping with early identification of agricultural drought that might trigger food insecurity. For more information, visit http://www.fews.net.
The article, “A westward extension of the warm pool intensifies the walker circulation, drying eastern Africa,” was published in Climate Dynamics and can be found at http://www.springerlink.com/content/u0352236x6n868n2/.
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Guess they never heard of the Aral Sea either.
Typo: “Disapopointingly”
Extra “o” separating the “pp”. 😉
It should be noted that the Sahara is shrinking, far from being drought-stricken:
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/07/090731-green-sahara_2.html
The fact that eastern Africa has been the site of almost continual conflict for 50 years, leading to the disruption of irrigation, water conservation and proper farming methods has of course, nothing to do with it.
I guess I am just a dumb economist. I thought the “settled science” concluded that the arctic was warming faster than any other area of the world. This paper states that the Indian Ocean is warming the fastest. Can someone set me straight.
Also, I wondered if it occurred to them that if the drought in East Africa was the result of a warming world, then the drought could soon be over as the world cools.
I guess one could take comfort in the fact that they are positing a falsifiable prediction. We will know soon if they were correct!
About 4 or 5 years ago National geographic had an article claiming that archeological evidence showed that the Sahara was formerly a savannah when temperatures were 1-2 degrees C warmer than now, and that it started to dry as temperatures declined some 5000 years ago, with the populetion moving to the Nile valley and starting what became the Egyptian civilisation. Cooler -dryer then, warmer-dryer now. Who knows?
“Scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of California, Santa Barbara, determined that warming of the Indian Ocean, which causes decreased rainfall in eastern Africa, is linked to global warming. These new projections of continued drought contradict previous scenarios by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicting increased rainfall in eastern Africa.”
So, again, whatever happens it’s due to CO2, AGW. It’s not raining like the IPCC said it should so the USGS says it’s still AGW causing the problem of no rain. Go figure.
Droughts in Eastern Africa
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&tbs=tl%3A1&q=Droughts+in+Eastern+Africa&btnG=Search&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&oq=
As a student of cycles I like google for the timelines . . .
I’ll wait to see what everyone else thinks . . . as I know droughts are more common than this timeline.
I do know that if you feed starving people. . . they will be a friend and ally for life. . .
“they saved my life” . . . they say . . .
We all know that famous quote . . . . . . . . . . “Knowledge is Power . . .
but, not many know the rest of it which is . . . . & Ignorance is Control”
it’s my understanding that the . . . . is a Rothchild quote.
“It is also important to note that while sea-surface temperatures are expected to continue to increase in the Indian Ocean and cause an average decrease in rainfall in eastern Africa, there will still occasionally be very wet years because there are many factors that influence precipitation.”
In other words, whatever happens will be consistent with our theory. Less rain: we told you so; more rain: we told you so.
Nice!
“This research supports efforts by the USGS and the U.S. Agency for International Development through the Famine Early Warning Systems Network. FEWS NET is a decision support system that helps target more than two billion dollars of food aid to more than 40 countries each year. Through this system, scientists are helping with early identification of agricultural drought that might trigger food insecurity.”
=================
What, no mention that many/most of the governments recieving the “early warning”
couldn’t afford to act upon it, or may even use it as a weapon to control their populations.
It wouldn’t be the first time.
Produce a reliable forecast, then talk about releasing it to Governments.
Another thought on this, the only thing that will change this continuous drum beat is if and/or when the “researchers”, and I use that term with great trepidation, can obtain money for proving that AGW is the farce that it is. One can always follow the money to the answer as to why folks do what they do.
ermm… air rises and loses moisture as it cools – ok
air descends, compresses warms and no rain – ok
Didn’t we learn this in high school? The areas of East Africa they are talking about are in a rain shadow, therefore will experience drought or simply be desert. This is basic. We have this in the desert SW of the USA, the “Great basin” that covers eastern Washington and Oregon.
Yep, the USGS is your premiere source for climatology and inexpensive maps!
I want my tax money back.
Mohatdebos says:
“I guess one could take comfort in the fact that they are positing a falsifiable prediction. We will know soon if they were correct!”
But if they’re incorrect, it will only mean that its worse than they thought. Oh, and they need more money to make better predictions.
“”””” Murray Duffin says:
January 28, 2011 at 1:22 pm
About 4 or 5 years ago National geographic had an article claiming that archeological evidence showed that the Sahara was formerly a savannah when temperatures were 1-2 degrees C warmer than now, and that it started to dry as temperatures declined some 5000 years ago, with the populetion moving to the Nile valley and starting what became the Egyptian civilisation. Cooler -dryer then, warmer-dryer now. Who knows? “””””
What’s with this 4 or 5 years ago. Howa bout 7-Jan 2011, which I think is more recent.
I quote ” The data suggest that the Sahara desert was a land of lakes and rivers about 130,000 years ago. when moderns first left Africa for sites in what is today Israel. ” The paper is about the first exodus of man from Africa; previously it was thought they hopped a cruise ship in Kenya (East Africa) but now they thing they left Africa by going North into Israel.
Imagine that, way back then, our ancestors were smart enough to know to go north to get to the promised land.
Actually from the article it is clear that they actually went East from west Africa, instead of going North from East africa, for the exodus sites are mostly in Morocco on the west coast, so they had to cross the whole of the sahara, and ford all those rivers, and swim across all those lakes.
So who actually believes they were actually going anywhere; other than chasing that zebra for dinner. Most of them had never heard of Israel, let alone wanted to immigrate there.
They can come up to Boston and export all the snow they want on their own dime.
I start to appreciate a very simple view about the connection between temperature and precipiation and this appears to work better than climate models.
1. Warming temperatures lead to more evaporation, and therefore more precipitation.
2. Exceptions from 1 are periods of fast transitions from cold to warm, or warm to cold temperatures:
fast cold to warm: the atmosphere can quickly accomodate more water vapor, less precipitation is released.
fast warm to cold: the atmosphere cools fast, heavy precipitation is released quickly.
1 would be what we expect from increasing temperatures (due to natural climate change or whatever) and would be generally beneficial to mankind (as history has proven).
2 would be what we expect from WEATHER events, such as a start of an El Nino, or currently a La Nina following an El Nino (as we currently observe).
Sounds sufficiently scary to ‘deserve’ some big grants, but of course the authors already knew that.
Again you start with a conclusion then work back to the staring conditions.
” From the USGS, I thought their mission was the United States, hence the US in USGS. Seems they’ve expanded the mission to Africa now. Disapopointingly, there’s no mention of land use change, agricultural practices, or deforestation issues like the one contributing to the glacier melt on Kilimanjaro. Evapotranspiration is a very important issue for local moisture content and convective cloud development.”
While the glacial change on Kilimanjaro is not as well understood as we would like, I believe Dr. Lonnie Thompson found ice core evidence that showed the glacier survived a 300 year drought in the region some several thousand years ago. It seems strange that this particular “drought” today that is caused by deforestation and land use would on its own cause such a seemingly sudden and profound decline in a glacier that is over 11,000 years old. Plus, he found evidence that there has been melting in recent years in some of the ice core samples, indicating a period of higher temperature at the mountaintop. Plus, a vast majority of other glaciers around the world are retreating, seeming to indicate a global warming trend. Mt. Kilimanjaro may be immune to what is affecting the other glaciers, but the evidence I have seen from Dr. Thompson doesn’t seem to rule out the global warming possibility. The glacier loss on Kilimanjaro may be a contribution of both effects.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/03/world/africa/03melt.html
So, bottom line, I like the wording that deforestation is contributing to the glacier loss in this article, but the title of the WUWT article that is linked is too forceful.
“Kilimanjaro’s snow – it’s about land use change, tree cutting”
That seems too forceful, since folks like those contributing to the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences reached no concensus on the Kilimanjaro glacier retreat either way (at least in the article I saw a year ago).
Interesting article, though. It is good to see climate knowledge put to use to help folks that may be affected by food security issues.
Scott Covert says:
January 28, 2011 at 1:53 pm
I want my tax money back.
I say: Sorry Scott . . . they stole it “fair and square”.
Perhaps they should have read this little piece written some time ago now but puts things into some sort of perspective on the subject of African droughts.
http://ccb.colorado.edu/ijas/ijasno2/georgis.html
Keep up the good work.
Quit worrying about Ethiopia-most of them have moved to minneapolis Minnesota.
And the “G” is for geology.
Makes ya wonder why they are dabbling in Climatology . . . . maybe because that is where all the money is ?
“More Frequent Drought Likely in Eastern Africa”
Oh No! Now that they are claiming it, we will surely soon see huge rain falls in that area of the globe. Why can’t they just shut up?
“I thought their mission was the United States, hence the US in USGS. Seems they’ve expanded the mission…”
I guess the US Navy should confine itself to US waters and NASA will need to restrict itself to satellites over just the good old U.S. of A. What were they thinking by sending probes to OTHER PLANETS?