Walls of water 10ft high in a month-long mega hurricane: California told to prepare for biblical ‘ARkStorm’
By Daniel Bates
Last updated at 4:17 AM on 17th January 2011
Scientists are now warning Californians that the long-awaited ‘big one’ earthquake could be the least of their environmental concerns.
Another more deadly threat awaits the West coast of America – in the form of a biblical ‘ARkStorm’, which could bring death and destruction on a scale never before seen.
Walls of water 10ft high, rain falling in feet instead of inches, and nine million people’s homes flooded during a hurricane-like megastorm that could last more than month.
Just the beginning: A truck and a house are buried waist level in mud after the torrential rains that soaked California in December. Scientists are warning of an even greater storm, the ARkStorm, which they say is long overdue
The every-other-century event last happened in 1861 and left the central valley of California impassable.
The cost was impossible to quantify – but should a similar event happen today the damage could total more than $300billion.
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OK, take a deep breath, and prepare yourself for this:
The attached comments on YouTube says:
In 2008, the USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) brought together over 300 experts to create ShakeOut the most comprehensive earthquake scenario and the largest earthquake drill ever. Over 5 million people participated in the event.
The MHDP is now preparing for its next major public project, “ARkStorm,” a scenario to address massive West Coast storms analogous to those that severely impacted California in 1861/62. Once again, the MHDP is working with DesignMatters at the Art Center College of Design and Theo Alexopolous, Tina Chiang, and Sean Starkweather at SDF-1 to communicate the science behind the effort.
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Here’s some evidence of the magnitude of that flood in 1862:
And the research citing that graph is here
Certainly, this could happen again. Certainly, as we’ve seen with the floods in Australia and Brazil it will be blamed on “global warming”. But, the weather history will show otherwise.
I’m not sure what, if any, mitigation infrastructure or planning would help in an event of this magnitude, but trying to scare the crap out of people with Hollywood style CGI isn’t going to help in my opinion, because it looks just like another sci fi movie.
h/t to WUWT reader Rational Debate and Chris Lydon
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It is always a shame when light weights with access to public information dissemination, masquerading as knowledgeable people, take the movie 2012 as ‘science’. There has been a bit too much of this lately.
Let me guess… computer model!
But tell us this… where is all that water and energy coming from?
And I thought they could do worst scenarios than 2012 (the movie).
1861 was right after Katla blew and a number of eruptions in Russia. Indonesia was active and even Mt. Baker in Washington.
California has been hit by hurricanes in the past and will be in the future. I write about it periodically on my blog (for example: http://meteorologicalmusings.blogspot.com/2010/07/time-to-rethink-disaster-response.html ). When I was researching my book, “Warnings” I checked to see if there were any hurricane preparedness plans for California and the answer seems to be no.
If it happened before, it can happen again.
The ARkStorm would be a disaster, but not worse for California than the current financial disaster. That disaster is completely man-made. The reason there are so many disaster movies for California is because everyone knows it is a disaster.
🙂
John Kehr
The Inconvenient Skeptic
Some of the floods now hitting Victoria in SE Australia are being rated as 1 in 200 years, so there’s nothing unlikely about that.
Considering that we were supposed to be in a perpetual drought due to AGW getting a 1 in 200 year flood is quite an achievement.
45 days of rain! Even Noah only had to cope with 40. Anyone ever look at the small straits that the great valley drains through in the coast range?
Ugh…
“The atmospheric mechanisms behind the storms of 1861-62 are unknown; however, the storms were likely the result of an intense atmospheric river, or a series of atmospheric rivers, striking the U.S. West Coast.”
This type of study is a re-insurance adjusters wet dream.
I’d guess the cause to be a negative AO pushing the jets toward the equator combined with a strong El Nino pushing the jets poleward and the battleground over California.
The scale of natural variability has been greatly underestimated and we have been in a relatively benign period throughput the 20th Century.
Wait …. there are weather cycles? 11/30/100 year cycles.
And they repeat themselves?
Who knew?
I thought CO2 drove everything.
I think it prudent to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. I have spent the better part of my working life planning large mines. I men real big ones. One needs to be aware of all possibilities one also needs to consider the probabilities. A rational balance then needs to be drawn. Things like ARKStorm could be well done, rational and instructive. It could be nothing more then a poorly done “B” movie too. I think everyone needs to also keep in mind those who fail to plan or allow the plan to be corrupted by greed or neglect, think Australia, Pakistan and Brazil, if something like this gets people asking the right questions can that be all that bad?
Arkstorm, NOAA……anybody else see the arrogance of this?
It is particularly troubling to see they are trying to assess the impact to “ecosystems”.
Aren’t the existing “ecosystems” the result of natural patterns of weather?
Why would man be blowing a Trillion to circumvent this…. unless the “impact” affected us?
Just wondering…
On the other hand, think of all the jobs that will be created.
I recently did some research on major floods in California – inspired by the December AR event – and was suprised at just how massive the 1862 flood really was and how flood planning in California hasn’t taken into account a flood of that magnitude.
To put it into perspective, 300,000 cfs is just about half the flow of the Mississippi River at New Orleans! That equates to almost 2.5 millions gallons per second!
The evidence of massive floods in California’s history is unequivocal. Just like with The Big One, it’s only a matter of time before another massive flood strikes.
Surf’s up!
The new film by Al Gore, starring Al Gore and Annette Funicello.
Hang ten, Al baby! /sarc
isn’t this the same garbage they cooked up a few years ago? i remember they had some conference of big-wig “scientists” who were going to study what would happen if California had something like 40 straight days of heavy rain….(why not study what would happen if a meteor hits the San Andreas fault at just the right angle – maybe California falls into the sea?)
what crock….trying to scare up more funding for their fellow crooks….and why in the hell is USGS involved in this garbage? we already have NOAA and NASA involved in weather and climate….they all trying to get on the gravy train…let me guess, DMV or the post office is next…
4TimesAYear says: January 16, 2011 at 11:15 pm
“Arkstorm, NOAA……anybody else see the arrogance of this?”
Sorry, I can’t resist……..
THREE HA’PENCE A FOOT
by Marriott Edgar
http://monologues.co.uk/3Hapence.htm
I’ll tell you an old-fashioned story
That Grandfather used to relate,
Of a joiner and building contractor;
‘Is name, it were Sam Oglethwaite.
In a shop on the banks of the Irwell,
Old Sam used to follow ‘is trade,
In a place you’ll have ‘eard of, called Bury;
You know, where black puddings is made.
One day, Sam were filling a knot ‘ole
Wi’ putty, when in thro’ the door
Came an old feller fair wreathed wi’ whiskers;
T’ould chap said ‘Good morning, I’m Noah.’
Sam asked Noah what was ‘is business,
And t’ould chap went on to remark,
That not liking the look of the weather,
‘E were thinking of building an Ark.
‘E’d gotten the wood for the bulwarks,
And all t’other shipbuilding junk,
And wanted some nice Bird’s Eye Maple
To panel the side of ‘is bunk.
Now Maple were Sam’s Monopoly;
That means it were all ‘is to cut,
And nobody else ‘adn’t got none;
So ‘e asked Noah three ha’pence a foot.
‘A ha’penny too much,’ replied Noah
‘A Penny a foot’s more the mark;
A penny a foot, and when t’rain comes,
I’ll give you a ride in me Ark.’
But neither would budge in the bargain;
The whole daft thing were kind of a jam,
So Sam put ‘is tongue out at Noah,
And Noah made Long Bacon* at Sam
In wrath and ill-feeling they parted,
Not knowing when they’d meet again,
And Sam had forgot all about it,
‘Til one day it started to rain.
It rained and it rained for a fortni’t,
And flooded the ‘ole countryside.
It rained and it kept’ on raining,
‘Til the Irwell were fifty mile wide.
The ‘ouses were soon under water,
And folks to the roof ‘ad to climb.
They said ’twas the rottenest summer
That Bury ‘ad ‘ad for some time.
The rain showed no sign of abating,
And water rose hour by hour,
‘Til the only dry land were at Blackpool,
And that were on top of the Tower.
So Sam started swimming to Blackpool;
It took ‘im best part of a week.
‘Is clothes were wet through when ‘e got there,
And ‘is boots were beginning to leak.
‘E stood to ‘is watch-chain in water,
On Tower top, just before dark,
When who should come sailing towards ‘im
But old Noah, steering ‘is Ark.
They stared at each other in silence,
‘Til Ark were alongside, all but,
Then Noah said: ‘What price yer Maple?’
Sam answered ‘Three ha’pence a foot.’
Noah said ‘Nay; I’ll make thee an offer,
The same as I did t’other day.
A penny a foot and a free ride.
Now, come on, lad, what does tha say?’
‘Three ha’pence a foot,’ came the answer.
So Noah ‘is sail ‘ad to hoist,
And sailed off again in a dudgeon,
While Sam stood determined, but moist.
Noah cruised around, flying ‘is pigeons,
‘Til fortieth day of the wet,
And on ‘is way back, passing Blackpool,
‘E saw old Sam standing there yet.
‘Is chin just stuck out of the water;
A comical figure ‘e cut,
Noah said: ‘Now what’s the price of yer Maple?’
Sam answered: ‘Three ha’pence a foot.’
Said Noah: ‘Ye’d best take my offer;
It’s last time I’ll be hereabout;
And if water comes half an inch higher,
I’ll happen get Maple for nowt.’
‘Three ha’pence a foot it’ll cost yer,
And as fer me,’ Sam said, ‘don’t fret.
The sky’s took a turn since this morning;
I think it’ll brighten up yet.’
California only costs money. Get all the people out of there. Maybe it´s cheaper.
Interesting graph.
Looks like the occurrence of big floods has been diminishing as the U.S. warmed after 1862. How well does that square with positive water vapour feedback?
Or are other natural forces much larger than the claimed co2 effect swamping the alleged signal, as usual?
Big floods happen somewhere in the world on a pretty frequent basis. Building expensive infrastructure under the brow of large unstable masses of moraine or on flood plains is a risk. But we knew that already.
Tip to people who live on flood plains. Keep a large boat on your garage roof stocked with fresh water and emergency supplies.
But suppose this hurricane and flood hits just as a giant meteor lands and at exactly the same time as the Yellowstone super volcano explodes and just after the ‘big one’ earthquake that has long been promised. And suppose this is exactly when swine flu, dog flu, rabbit flu, ant flu etc has started killing millions and millions and when the rogue states have started exploding their nuclear bombs?
I mean it might happen?
And suppose England won the wold cup again….. Nah, there we are in the realm of fantasy.
Another disaster forecast, Meh. Are there zombies or vampires in it? What does the female star look like? WE are definitely in the ‘water off a duck’s back’ stage for public perception of yet more disaster predictions.
“Walls of water 10ft high, rain falling in feet instead of inches, and nine million people’s homes flooded during a hurricane-like megastorm that could last more than month.”
This is great! Reminds me of Bill Murray in Ghostbusters, with the pending apocalypse. “Dos and Cats living together- end of the world”. The alarmists are going beyond the pale, or jumping the shark as you say in the US. More fodder for Josh methinks.
We seem to have far too many so called scientists who get paid for churning out science fiction – speculation about what might happen, spiced up to attract MSM coverage and public concern, both calculated to aid future funding.
They actually contribute nothing of value and degrade the reputation of genuine scientists.
Obviously these guys are financed by Big Business Boat Builders capital.
I bet there’s an outfit “ARK builders” already somewhere on the West coast and maybe you can even buy “build your own Ark” self assembly packets at your local DIY (includes two pigeons and instructions about how to find the pot of gold at the end of
the rainbow)
And yet America continues to be the world’s life boat.