SST UPDATE FROM AMSR-E
By Dr. Roy Spencer, PhD
The following plot shows global average sea surface temperatures from the AMSR-E instrument over the lifetime of the Aqua satellite, through Dec 31, 2010. The SSTs at the end of December suggest that the tropospheric temperatures in the previous graph (see post here) still have a ways to fall in the coming months to catch up to the ocean, which should now be approaching its coolest point if it follows the course of previous La Nina’s.
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Here’s a visual view of the global SST:
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I hope it freezes over!
It is funny that all the previous “hottest” year on record,are also lined up with El-nino years.
Looks like it’s a persistent La Nina, much like the early one in 2008.
I find the Jet Stream interesting. It looks like it’s following more of an El Nino path than La Nina.
man…we still have a ways to go yet….we could see a very late spring which means a later start to the melt season like Joe Bastardi has been predicting.
Looking at the graph, I would say it supports Phil Jones’ statement that there has been no significant warming in the past 15 (here 8) YEARS.
-Jay
Isn’t it weird? All we are arguing about are tenths of degrees Celsius. Check the y-axis.
http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/isstoi_v2_0-360E_-90-90N_na.png
Explain me now, how that tiny warming/cooling of oceans by tenth of degree causes extreme events, floods and drought, earthquakes and tsunamis.
As ever, it is the ocean heat content that is the true gauge of global warming or cooling. I wish the warmists would agree with the skeptics to stop talking about global average temperatures, as it just misleads the public.
Current cooling in global SST under AMSR-E data is less severe than the cooling in 2007-2008. Australia’s BOM data though, say for Nino region 3.4, show that current cooling is similar to 2007-08 cooling with temp anomaly of -1.5 C. I would assume that the temp decline in the Atlantic and other oceans is not as severe as the temp decline in the Pacific Ocean.
I once thought ’03-’07 might be the peak of the LIA recovery; now I think it is the ’98-’10 top.
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“More on the WUWT ENSO page here”
Anthony
Given the success of the Sea Ice Page, I was thinking that we might want to develop the WUWT “ENSO/Sea Level/Sea Surface Temperature Page” into a more encompassing WUWT Ocean Reference Page. And possibly include some more global graphics/animations such as these;
Global Tropical Sea Surface Temperature – 3 Months
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/gsstanim.shtml
Global Sea Surface Temperature – 30 Days
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_ncom/anims/glb/sst30d.gif
Global Sea Surface Temperature – 12 Months
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_ncom/anims/glb/sst12m.gif
Global Surface Currents over Temperature – 30 Days
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_ncom/anims/glb/ctemp30d.gif
Global Surface Currents over Temperature – 12 Months
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_ncom/anims/glb/ctemp12m.gif
Global Surface Currents over Height – 30 Days
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_ncom/anims/glb/cssh30d.gif
Global Surface Currents over Height – 12 Months
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_ncom/anims/glb/cssh12m.gif
Global Surface Currents over Speed – 30 Days
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_ncom/anims/glb/cspd30d.gif
Global Surface Currents over Speed – 12 Months
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_ncom/anims/glb/cspd12m.gif
Global Sea Surface Height – 30 Days
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_ncom/anims/glb/ssh30d.gif
Global Sea Surface Height – 12 Months
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_ncom/anims/glb/ssh12m.gif
Global Sea Surface Salinity – 30 Days
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_ncom/anims/glb/sss30d.gif
Global Sea Surface Salinity – 12 Months
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_ncom/anims/glb/sss12m.gif
Note that if you use data and graphics from the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) at Stennis Space Center (SSC) they state that they “would like to be continually involved with any uses of the data or graphics that we provide. Please keep us informed of any transitions or publications. Please let us know immediately if you should see anything questionable in the data or graphics so that we can make the product better. Their website can be found here:
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_ncom/
Furthermore their site states that, “NRL and NAVOCEANO are participants in the multi-national Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE) including presence on the U. S. and international steering teams. GODAE is aimed at demonstrating real-time global ocean products in a way that will promote wide utility and availability for maximum benefit to the community.”
Maybe WUWT can help GODAE to achieve some of their goals.
Hot damn!
Juraj.V it doesn’t. There is, in fact, nothing abnormal about the weather, nor the climate. Those who tell you there is are liars.
I’ve been to North Australia. The North coast, apart from the York Peninsula and The Kimberley, basically are just sloping plates gradually entering the shallow seas around. You can be travelling along the North Road, between Broome and 80 Mile Beach, and see signs warning of floods. Floods! My God, there is nothing but red deset here – except, obviously, when there are floods. Nothing abnormal about floods and dryness in Australia.
I find the following from the Aussie BoM quite interesting.
Take a look at the chart here
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/sub_surf_mon.gif
Anthony
While we are at it, I was also thinking that we might want to develop a WUWT Atmosphere Reference Page including content such as:
Atmospheric Pressure:
Actual:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z200anim.shtml
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z500_nh_anim.shtml
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z500_sh_anim.shtml
http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.Global/.Atm_Circulation/HT_Anomaly_Loop.html
Forecast:
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=glob_250
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=natla_slp
Clouds:
Actual:
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/comp/ir/irmoll.html
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/comp/wv/wvmoll.mpg
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/globe/cldspin.html
http://amrc.ssec.wisc.edu/~amrc/GOPHER.GIF
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/display10.cgi?SIZE=full&PHOT=yes&AREA=global/stitched&PROD=day_night_bm&TYPE=ssmi&NAV=global&DISPLAY=Latest&ARCHIVE=Latest&CGI=global.cgi&CURRENT=20110102.0300.multisat.visir.bckgr.Global_Global_bm.DAYNGT.jpg&MOSAIC_SCALE=15
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/display10.cgi?SIZE=full&PHOT=yes&AREA=global/stitched&PROD=vapor&TYPE=ssmi&NAV=global&DISPLAY=Latest&ARCHIVE=Latest&CGI=global.cgi&CURRENT=20110102.0300.multisat.wv.stitched.Global.x.jpg&MOSAIC_SCALE=15
Temperature:
Sea Surface Temperature:
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps+001
Temperature 14,000 feet:
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps+002
Temperature 25,000 feet:
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps+003
Temperature 36,000 feet:
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps+004
Temperature 46,000 feet:
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps+005
Temperature 56,000 feet:
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps+006
Temperature 68,000 feet:
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps+007
Temperature 102,000 feet:
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps+009
Temperature 118,000 feet:
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps+010
Temperature Animation at 50 hPa
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp50anim.shtml
Temperature Animation at 30 hPa
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.shtml
Temperature Animation at 10 hPa ~ 30,000 km
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.shtml
Global Temperature/Cloud Animation
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/comp/cmoll/cmoll.mp4
What do you think? If you think it’s worthwhile I’ll put some more work into it. A WUWT Sun Reference Page might also be a valuable resource…
wattsupwiththat?… Why on the year axis is 2010 a different size to the others? And what’s strange about the ocean warming in spring and summer and cooling in winter? What point are you trying to make? The average temperature hasn’t dropped, it was cooler in 2007/08, and it was warmer this year than it’s been all decade. This years low is warmer than last years and right now it’s not continuing dropping, it looks like it’s levelled off.
It looks like the sea surface temperature variation may have bottomed out at – 0.1C and is not going to fall as low as 2008. It may be that Dr Spencer holds this view since when taling about ocean temperature, he sates “which should now be approaching its coolest point if it follows the course of previous La Nina’s.”
Given the heat capacity of the ocean and their relative surface area, for all intents and purposes, it is only ocean temperature (and not land tempatures) that is important when considering whether there is any real global warming. Further, ocean temperatures are not bastardised by UHI which makes their data set more accurate.
The graph suggests no significant warming during the past 8 years.
kim says:
January 3, 2011 at 3:09 pm
If the peak has occurred, it occurred in the 1930s-40s. We have likely never exceeded them.
Ed_B says:
January 3, 2011 at 2:59 pm
As ever, it is the ocean heat content that is the true gauge of global warming or cooling. I wish the warmists would agree with the skeptics to stop talking about global average temperatures, as it just misleads the public.
Except it has become perfectly clear that is their prime objective,
to mislead the public. (but keep dreamin’)
@Juraj V. – no no, the weather events are a result of AGW; the earthquakes and tsunamis are Mother Gaia’s vengeance against the pillaging patriarchal West!
…which is what makes it so odd that it’s always the world’s poorest that get slammed by these events. 😛
The preliminary Reynolds Oi.v2 SST anomaly data (used by GISS) also shows a drop in December 2010, about 0.013 deg C, which is not likely enough to keep 2010 from being a GISS LOTI record. Post on the preliminary December 2010 SST data :
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2010/12/preliminary-december-2010-sst-anomaly.html
I guess all of the melting glaciers are causing the ocean temperature to drop :-/
richard verney says:
January 3, 2011 at 4:04 pm (Edit)
It looks like the sea surface temperature variation may have bottomed out at – 0.1C and is not going to fall as low as 2008.
Unfortunately SST will continue to decline well into this year. Steeply asides from the occasional pause. It will bottom out well below 2008.
You can call that a prediction.
One thing I’ve noticed is how low the heat anomaly is for the Gulf of Mexico and the gulf stream current. If you look at past temperature plots of the gulf stream, you’ll notice that a trail of cold water is moving closer and closer to Ireland and Britain. I don’t know what it means, but it is interesting to me. Especially since I live in North Carolina where the coast was formed by the gulf stream current.
Thank the Lord for Dr. Roy Spencer!
meanwhile in cuckoo-land Robyn ‘100m’ Williams and Tim ‘Alarmist’ Flannery had a chat last weekend.
The comments are interesting 🙂
http://www.abc.net.au/rn/scienceshow/stories/2011/3101365.htm