By Steve Goddard
GISS appears to be working hard to make 2010 the hottest year ever. As you can see in the graph above, they show 2010 with much more area above the 1998 line than below. I did a numerical integration of the graph above, and found that they have 2.8 times as much area with 2010 warmer than they do with 2010 cooler.
How does this compare with other data sources? HadCrut has been adjusting their data upwards, but even using their upwards adjusted numbers, their ratio of above to below area is only 0.04. Seventy times lower than GISS.
UAH has 0.12 times as much area above as they have below. Twenty-five times lower than GISS.
RSS has 0.07 times as much area above as below. Forty times lower than GISS.
The chart below shows how much of an outlier GISS is.
GISS is the only one of the four which shows 2010 as #1. The others aren’t even close. It must be their almost non-existent better Arctic coverage.
Conclusion: Dr. Hansen thinks that warming has continued unabated since 1998, while HadCrut, RSS and UAH think it has stopped or slowed to a crawl.
GISS
Had Crut
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Steven: Isn’t 2005 the current record high year for GISTEMP?
Steve
Nice article.
I understand the claim as 2010 being the warmest ever is based on record temperatures from only 17 out of 200 countries. I wonder if in your research you were able to find out which 17 countries this covered?
tonyb
Steven, what happens to the area ratio when you apply the same Y-axis to the GISS graph that you do to the other ones? Let’s say from 0.0 to 0.9.
And what about baseline differences?
Grasping at straws. The future looks bleak for the AGW hypothesis as poor old mother earth decides not to play ball. Add to that the suns less energetic cycles and with La Nina and a changed PDO cooling looks a possibility.
What surprises me is that the proponents of global warming have consistently ignored the influence of the sun and the natural variants stating on more than one occasion that they are basically irrelevant. Now as they observe the fact that CO2 is not the driver they have to convince themselves as well as their adherents that it is still warming, even by data manipulation. The end of the hoax is nigh.
I thought GISS already claimed 2005 was hotter than 1998?
[snip]
August may turn out to still be quite warm (daily UAH temperatures are still very high), but by September I think we will see the delayed effect of the dropping SST kicking in for land and LT temperatures.
We can only laugh.
To start, try Celia Walden’s Daily Telegraph article today (Aug 20). On the web her latest published column is Aug 12, but today’s is worth waiting for.
Well, one way to make sure you break the record would be to use fewer and fewer surface stations and make sure that the ones you do use are in the tropics.
…Fred S. Singer, if you read this, or if somebody who knows you, At KTH Stockholm, September 2006, did you get my pun about the outliers being “outliars”??? And BTW,
you are 39 years older on the day than the love of my life…and there are only 2 women
having that name on this very planet if not a bunch are having secret numbers… if you generous and dot-omitting, the Texan one…Anectdotal and OT…On topic, always
adjustments upwards, after a while… Svenska Dagbladet, Sweden’s 2nd biggest morning paper, publish monthly average temps, precipitation etc for Sweden in general
and Stockholm in particular, the April “presentation” “already” May 26 or something like that,
and, regarding Stockholm Observatory [inner city] 1,0C too high…. Is Nasa
Giss behind that…?? Probably not, they [SvD] also mixed Tullinge 21 km SSE of the
observatory and the observatory up and claimed it was inner city readings…Nobody complained,
to the best of my knowledge… Tullinge can be 3,0C colder a cold winter month,
annual average 1,5C … Hmm… That’s about 2 AGWs…What number in CAGW argumental
handbooks has more
extreme weather, colder winters, hotter summers??? Tullinge is considered a “frost
hole”, located at an abandoned air force airport, I think we have still colder places
nearby…Which someday will be proven…or not!
Tonyb, here’s an overview.
It doesn’t really matter whether 1998 or 2010 was the hottest, because they’re so close.
I suspect the statistical variation will be greater than the difference. Basically at the moment you can say the climate was on plateau for the last 12 years. Let’s see where it goes next.
What if it was?
The Southern Hemisphere just had the coldest winter in 130 years.
The Northern Hemisphere just had its coldest winter since 1984.
The USA, a major land mass, just can’t top any other month this year in being the Hottest.
The bottom chart shows a flat trend with fluctuation.
We have lost critical Ozone production at ground level. It is at safe levels.
We have lost humidity at the highest atmosphere.
So what if is the hottest on record. If we have the worst winter in 130 years like the Southern Hemisphere this year, who will have to explain their numbers at Congressional Hearings?
So, they have better instruments now, too. All those numbers back before 1970 came from weather stations, not from spacemen.
Any outside political influences? Maybe! So what!
Can’t have global cooling before November elections. Maybe it can start in January.
Paul
DaveF says:
August 20, 2010 at 2:57 am
Well, one way to make sure you break the record would be to use fewer and fewer surface stations and make sure that the ones you do use are in the tropics.
No Dave F–just the opposite. Warming is strongest at high latitudes, especially the arctic. More coverage in the arctic, as seen in the GISS data leads to a greater positive temperature anomaly. That is what we have always been talking about.
Whilst we’re on the subject of absolute twaddle:-
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-11030889
Prove it!
I’m not sure which planet these chaps lived on from January 1st this year.
In my neck of the woods (57, 9 deg N, 2, 9 deg W) we had lying snow on the ground until mid April and several very low temps inland that broke low records. We have had little summer weather and absolutely no record highs.
I have been in this location for ten years and I have never seen it colder/snowier in the winter months or for such a duration and as cool/wet during the summer months.
Still there’s a chance that September to December could bring a prolonged Indian summer but I’m not betting my barbeque on it.
Hope it’s cold in Cancun this November.
Gunter
Thanks for the above. So we have heat records from some 8% of all the countries in the world which then supposedly makes 2010 the ‘hottest ever.’
Of those mentioned Niger doesn’t even seem to have a reliable record. Saudi has a highly disjointed record going back to 1965. We have been reading of record cold in such places as Argentina and Brazil so how come they now appear to be record highs?
Is the heat record actually skewed towards Russia due to its large land mass and its presumed weighting therefore in the global record, combined with its very substantial increased anomaly due to the bocking high? Even then not everywhere in Russia has been warm.
Hmm Steve, if you have the time, a closer examination of the record seems in order. Also posted this to Chiefio in the hope he might investigate this further.
tonyb
About the GISS graph above titled “Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index”: in which statistical universe does it make sense to compare any two single year values picked from a 10-year running average?
Meanwhile, back on planet sanity, the sun yawns, rolls over, and goes back to sleep.
http://spaceweather.com/
I wonder if anyone will notice?
” BillD says:
August 20, 2010 at 3:37 am
Warming is strongest at high latitudes, especially the arctic. More coverage in the arctic, as seen in the GISS data leads to a greater positive temperature anomaly.”
The arctic is only warming in the imaginary world of GISS. In the real world of the meteorologists (see DMI) it is not warming.
” Bob from the UK says:
August 20, 2010 at 3:28 am
It doesn’t really matter whether 1998 or 2010 was the hottest, because they’re so close.”
According to IPCC 2010 should be at least 0.2°C warmer than 1998.
Lawrie Ayres says:
August 20, 2010 at 2:43 am
Grasping at straws. The future looks bleak for the AGW hypothesis as poor old mother earth decides not to play ball. Add to that the suns less energetic cycles and with La Nina and a changed PDO cooling looks a possibility.
What surprises me is that the proponents of global warming have consistently ignored the influence of the sun and the natural variants stating on more than one occasion that they are basically irrelevant. Now as they observe the fact that CO2 is not the driver they have to convince themselves as well as their adherents that it is still warming, even by data manipulation. The end of the hoax is nigh.
________________________________________________________________
The name of the game is to keep the hoax going long enough to get those big tax and de-development laws passed. Once the laws are in place it will be the devil to get rid of them and the hoaxsters will have plenty of time to steal more wealth from the poor and middle class.
It is always about money and power.
The urge to save humanity is almost always only a false face for the urge to rule it. – Henry Louis Mencken (1880-1956)
They’re too late – and I think even they know it.
The name of the game was to try and get the US Congress to pass a bill which would massively regulate the energy industry and divide the loot between the eager claimants. This was to serve as both justification for Europe’s energy scheme and as an inducement (very unrealistic, btw) to China and India to also join the party.
The Energy Bill is dead, and those who supported it are about to be dumped in a wave election in 75 days. The next Congress will not even consider this bill, no matter what kind of fancy temperature records they gin up. Therefore there’s no point to the exercise anymore – they can fake all the data they want, it doesn’t matter.
The US has opted out of the carbon regulation game. Therefore China and India are out, too. Australia looks like it will opt out tomorrow – meaning Europe’s scheme can only hurt them while accomplishing nothing, so they will be under pressure to drop their efforts as well, and I predict that by next summer, they will.
Like I said, it’s too late – the game is over. They’ve run out of time.
tonyb says:
August 20, 2010 at 3:51 am
Gunter
Thanks for the above. So we have heat records from some 8% of all the countries in the world which then supposedly makes 2010 the ‘hottest ever.’
Of those mentioned Niger doesn’t even seem to have a reliable record. Saudi has a highly disjointed record going back to 1965. We have been reading of record cold in such places as Argentina and Brazil so how come they now appear to be record highs?
Is the heat record actually skewed towards Russia due to its large land mass and its presumed weighting therefore in the global record, combined with its very substantial increased anomaly due to the bocking high? Even then not everywhere in Russia has been warm.
Hmm Steve, if you have the time, a closer examination of the record seems in order. Also posted this to Chiefio in the hope he might investigate this further.
While doing so remember that the satellite data is also showing very warm conditions for the year, as I recall UAH and RSS show a close race between 2010 and 1998. The daily data that Roy Spencer shows was at record levels all year until it was adjusted downwards recently (although it’s again testing record territory now).
Also when doing comparisons Goddard should try to compare like with like rather than the nonsensical comparison between the 12 month running average of GISS to 2010 and the annual HadCRUT data to 2009 (note that Goddard rather disingenuously implies that HadCRUT does include 2010).
Günther Kirschbaum
The scales are identical in all graphs. The Y-axis is degrees C, and the X-axis is years. The baseline makes no difference, because each measurement is comparing only one anomaly vs itself.
(T2010 – baseline) – (T1998 – baseline) = T2010 – T1998
Hansen claims that 2010 is the “hottest year ever.” HadCrut, UAH and RSS disagree.