By Steve Goddard
GISS appears to be working hard to make 2010 the hottest year ever. As you can see in the graph above, they show 2010 with much more area above the 1998 line than below. I did a numerical integration of the graph above, and found that they have 2.8 times as much area with 2010 warmer than they do with 2010 cooler.
How does this compare with other data sources? HadCrut has been adjusting their data upwards, but even using their upwards adjusted numbers, their ratio of above to below area is only 0.04. Seventy times lower than GISS.
UAH has 0.12 times as much area above as they have below. Twenty-five times lower than GISS.
RSS has 0.07 times as much area above as below. Forty times lower than GISS.
The chart below shows how much of an outlier GISS is.
GISS is the only one of the four which shows 2010 as #1. The others aren’t even close. It must be their almost non-existent better Arctic coverage.
Conclusion: Dr. Hansen thinks that warming has continued unabated since 1998, while HadCrut, RSS and UAH think it has stopped or slowed to a crawl.
GISS
Had Crut
Thanks again Steve. This has to be the shortest Colorado summer I’ve seen since I came here in 1972. The copper-colored hummingbirds that migrate through mid-summer came and left 2-3 weeks early, with much smaller population than normal. The rest of the hummingbird population had their peak feeding a week ago, and appear on the decline. Summer started late, with a lot of past winter damage to the oaks and service berry bushes. We have no apples, but some pears. We had zero ticks where 2-4 a week are normal. I have seen 2 grasshoppers in the past week, zero until then, and normal is a few per sq. yard all summer. Mosquitoes appeared in April, but have been very few all summer due to the deep freeze, 22°F the last week of May. I suspect this freeze did in the apples, and insects. For the past week or two, the ‘dog days of summer’, it has cooled 10-15°F. We hit 41°F the other morning, and many below 45°F since. The leaves are starting to change. I believe in this empirical evidence far more than the fantasy of GISS, or any ground surface data since the 1970’s. One could say it was a ‘weather’ event, that cold in May that postponed summer, but it does not explain the early end to summer. Time to put up more firewood.
frflyer says: August 22, 2010 at 9:56 pm
“These nations comprise 19 percent of the total land area of Earth. This is the largest area of Earth’s surface to experience all-time record high temperatures in any single year in the historical record. “
So you’re talking about 19% of 30%, about 6% of the earth.
stevengoddard says:
August 22, 2010 at 9:05 pm
Phil.
GISS has lowered the 1998 temperature anomalies by nearly 10% over the last decade. Thanks for highlighting their bad practices.
1999 – 0.63
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/hansen_07/fig1x.gif
Current – 0.56
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A2.lrg.gif
1998 would still be #1 at GISS if they hadn’t of “adjusted” it downwards.
No, had there not been a change in the USHCN datafiles which led to an error in the 1998 numbers the 1998 value would have always been what it is now!
Interesting that you consider correcting a previous error “bad practices”, that would explain why you so rarely do so.
Steve Keohane says:
August 23, 2010 at 7:21 am
Thanks again Steve. This has to be the shortest Colorado summer I’ve seen since I came here in 1972. The copper-colored hummingbirds that migrate through mid-summer came and left 2-3 weeks early, with much smaller population than normal. The rest of the hummingbird population had their peak feeding a week ago, and appear on the decline. Summer started late, with a lot of past winter damage to the oaks and service berry bushes. We have no apples, but some pears.
Well Steve we’ve made up for that in the Northeast where it has been a hot summer, on an agricultural note the Vermont apple growers report that their apple harvest will be 10 days earlier than normal.
Steve Keohane
Since mid-July we have actually been having a summer along the Front Range, for the first time in a couple of years. I dread the cool down which is knocking at the door. Last year was bitter cold by early October.
“July’s numbers. Direct quote from the US Government.”
I’m not altogether certain how to take this qualifier-as guaranteed Truth or total bunk.