Bonnie bombs

Another Tiny Tim bites the dust.
Oh well, it’s not just Bonnie that bombed. The media did try to make it out to be more than it was. Though at least Fox News seemed to be geographically challenged when referring to the the storm as coming from the Caribbean, when it formed north of Haiti/Dominican Republic. Last I looked, the Caribbean was located south of that island.

Interesting . A couple of days ago I was watching The Weather Channel’s tropical update when their hurricane expert informed Jim Cantore ( who was on location in south Florida ) that Bonnie would peter out in the Gulf . Big Jim was obviously displeased . So far , the near record tropical season that Cantore and other commited alarmists has failed to materialize . Let’s all hope that this trend continues .

Never let a good Non-Crises go to waste.

The real center of circulation (making land fall in Huston today) [it will be back in 109 days ready to talk business] was West of the rain band that they called Bonnie, Because there are no major outer planets having a synod conjunction with the earth until mid August, the precipitation was “missing” from the center of circulation, as the global circuit is still in the ion charge mode, it increases global precipitation rates post conjunctions. (Remember the flash floods in March, April?)
The real hurricane season will kick in after the first of three synod conjunctions with Neptune on the 20th of August, then really get crazy just after the combined synod conjunctions with both Jupiter and Uranus on the 21st, and each other on the 24th of August. There might be enough power in the solar wind disruption coming on the 21st to 24th to shut down some Power grids, with the geomagnetic storms they will probably generate.
I would expect to see an increase in background seismic activity 30 days both sides of the double conjunction. Just wait till they start saying the AGW caused all of the sudden activity right on (planetary scheduled) time.

So Joe Bastardi hit it right on the nose huh, again. Don’t get too big of a head now Joe.

There is a rumor that Al Gore has ordered several billion breeze boxes and some barges (leased from Enron) to set them up on. He figures with all the breeze boxes turned on, not only will he simulate at least a tropical storm, but he will elevate the temperature due to all the power being used, once again proving his point about AGW (Al Gore Whining).

Why has the hurricane season flopped so far?
Is it the changes due to oncoming La Nina, that went where they didn’t expect La Nina to go?

Joe Crawford says:
July 24, 2010 at 9:09 am
“I am a bit curious what the increased wave motion from the storm will do to the oil from the spill, especially the oil that was mixed with emulsifiers. A lot of it just may disappear. […]”
I just read in some news article that dispersed oil is broken down quicker than undispersed; their only worry is that the underwater plumes might affect organisms more.
Source:
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/wire/sns-bp-oil-plumes,0,2578252.story
I’m not that worried though. I prefer oily fish anyway 😉

Leon Brozyna says:
July 24, 2010 at 8:30 am
Another Tiny Tim bites the dust.
Oh well, it’s not just Bonnie that bombed. The media did try to make it out to be more than it was. Though at least Fox News seemed to be geographically challenged when referring to the the storm as coming from the Caribbean, when it formed north of Haiti/Dominican Republic. Last I looked, the Caribbean was located south of that island.
————
It seemed NOAA’s tracking was bit off, too, being about 100 miles south of it’s course, and about as straight a line as it could be, not the curve they modeled and never changed. The primary reason it bombed was it got sucked into a (High pressure?) system to it’s west which quickly dragged it out, so it couldn’t develop. That system was pretty strong and it was the main reason the potential depression futher east of Bonnie never developed, however that one has never left the eastern coast of Mexico and looks like it might redevelop and maybe head north behind the High as the High moves into Texas.
I’ll be interested to see if and when NOAA might make note of the one over Mexico. It seems more likely than the new one to the west they note, but I’m not in this profession.

Following along with Mark Sudduth’s http://www.hurricanetrack.com it became clear fairly early (about Tuesday) that Bonnie was going to go out with a whimper.
Notwithstanding the named storms predictions, this year is analog with 2005….so we may yet be very active. Happily, with adroit analyses of the ENSO, the PDO and the AO etc., the fervor for AGW-boosted hurricane intensity is totally debunked.
The Hansenesque tendency to want to make every situation a critical one makes preparation and mitigation all the more difficult. Factual precision and accuracy are, as ever, the key.

To asmilwho and others who dismiss planetary influence:
Do not underestimate the influence of planetary mechanics. Jupiter controls the 11 year Sun spot cycle. This cycle alone creates numerous harmonics at 11.1212×2^N, where N is any number from 0 to 11. The product of 22, 45, 90, 180, 360, 720 and 1,440, 2,800, 5,600 11,500 and 23,000 years results in miriad cycles which effect the climate. Then there is the Moon with its 18 year tidal and 1,800 year declination cycles. Venus, Earth and Jupiter create a 20 year Landescheidt tidal cycle. Jupiter and Saturn combine to create a 60 year climate cycle. And when some of these cycles get together and reinforce, dramatic climate changes can be expected. Uranus a magnetic giant controls the solar 18,000 magnetic reversal cycle. And on, and on, and on.

@richard Holle
The planets are, on a large scale, electrically neutral. There are no net electromagnetic forces between them.
If this were not so, it would have been detected long before now: electromagnetism is 10-to-the-power-of-37 times stronger than gravity. (http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/forces/funfor.html)
This strength is easily demonstrable – on a dry day, rub a comb across your shirt to give it static electricity, then hold it over a piece of paper on a desk. If you were successful, the piece of paper lifts off the desk. It takes an entire planet to keep the paper on the desk, but this force is easily overcome with everyday materials employing the electromagnetic force.

I may live in Nevada, but hurricanes are my hobby. I happen to be sitting on a boat near the Eastern tip of Puerto Rico prepping it for the season, to ward off any incoming that I can. It seems to me that WUWT would do well to consider Ryan Maue’s web site on this subject. Dr. Maue has reduced the worlds tropical cyclone activity to a graph. A very revealing graph. http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/

Wade says:
July 24, 2010 at 11:38 am
It was actually a low pressure. The persistent high pressure is what is sitting over the eastern US causing it to be so hot. I know it was a low pressure because Joe Bastardi talked about that low pressure and how it would hurt Bonnie a few days ago.
===========================
Right, upper level lows are the death of tropical cyclones, because the brisk winds they produce in the upper levels, shear apart any convection that tries to get organized around the center.

The way to remember the peak hurricane season is a little mnemonic I learned in Jamaica:
“June, too soon,
July, stand by,
August, you must,
September, remember,
October, all over.”

Following high activity predictions after 2005 that flopped, they began making news stories about water spouts along the coast of Florida. I hadn’t heard of them before. Soon they will be reporting on sailing conditions for toy sailboats.

Dusty says:
July 24, 2010 at 2:48 pm
Another question, if you don’t mind. That flash animation showed that Bonnie is pretty much dissipated and about all inland by 4PM today, but the 4PM advisory says it is 100 miles ESE of the mouth of the Mississippi River. What is used to determine the “center” of a depression — via the bounds of the minimum central pressure?
========================
The flash animation I referenced is water vapor information, so it should not be used to determine the low level circulation…which may be in a different place. (or what’s left of it LOL).
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA

“Charles S. Opalek, PE says:
July 24, 2010 at 12:10 pm
To asmilwho and others who dismiss planetary influence:
Do not underestimate the influence of planetary mechanics. ..”
Hallo Charles – I didn’t say that I don’t estimate the influence of planetary mechanics.
Richard made a specific prediction that an alignment of Jupiter and Uranus and whatever else will influence the weather in the Caribean in August.
What I pointed out is that this is either undectable (if mediated by gravitation) or impossible (if mediated by the elctromagnetic force). Other long range forces don’t exist, as far as anyone can tell.
There is a clear difference between weak forces operating over four and a half thousand million years to set up the kinds of harmonics you list, and the idea that these forces will affect the weather over the next few weeks.

asmilwho says:
July 24, 2010 at 10:53 pm
“Charles S. Opalek, PE says:
July 24, 2010 at 12:10 pm
Reply; Each of the planets that contain magnetically susceptible materials in their make up will exhibit homopolar generator properties proportional to three main vectors;
1) the total amount of magnetically susceptible materials contained.
2)The angular momentum of the body,
3)The total amount of magnetic lines of force cutting through the body.
There are standing magnetic fields surrounding the Galaxy, the solar system is passing through, there are also fields that extend from the sun out to the limits of the heliopause, that concentrate in the direction of the center of the galaxy, which the planets circulate around in, the continual variation of these almost DC standing fields felt by each of the planets is an inductive electromotive dance by which the total magnetic flux of the whole system remains balanced.
As the solar magnetic poles rotate on a 27.32 day period the Moon responds with a North / South declinational dance to counter balance the South to North movement of the COM of the Earth +/- 1,200 Km on the smooth ellipse the barycenter of the two scribe as “The Earth’s Orbit”. The hopolar generated fields are Negative at the poles and Positive at the equator, so yes the planet have no static fields between them, only on each of them from pole to equator.
In the case of the Earth this resultant standing voltage runs between over 200 volts per meter to around 80 volts per meter, (measured either from the ground up or from the equator toward the poles) varying in both space and time due to these interactions with the background magnetic flux value.
To get an idea of the total power involved, multiply the average 100 volts by the distance from Equator to pole in meters. This is the voltage that could be derived by doing the work of stopping the Earth’s rotation, or on the other hand this is the average power that is expended / stored in keeping the rotational momentum of the Earth steady, in the face of the current level of background magnetic flux.
To get the total power storage involved in amps, multiply the voltage found above by the velocity in Meters per second of the angular momentum of the earth’s total mass.
Yes electromagnetic forces are 10^27 times the force of gravity, as you mention.

http://iopscience.iop.org/0004-637X/493/1/460/36193.text.html
It would appear that the production of a CME would be the start of the process of the expansion of the solar fields to cause the suspected power surge alluded to.

savethesharks says:
July 24, 2010 at 7:50 pm
savethesharks says:
July 24, 2010 at 7:53 pm
———–
Thanks, Chris for the explanation and tips. Since then NOAA identified another Low near New Orleans which I looked at using IR AVN imaging flv and I could see it faintly and it was much more clear with their Atlantic Floater 1 IR AVN imaging. There can be a big difference in the location of a center between a system at the lower level than at the higher which one can see using water vapor.

@richard holle
‘There are standing magnetic fields surrounding the Galaxy, the solar system is passing through, there are also fields that extend from the sun out to the limits of the heliopause, that concentrate in the direction of the center of the galaxy, which the planets circulate around in, the continual variation of these almost DC standing fields felt by each of the planets is an inductive electromotive dance by which the total magnetic flux of the whole system remains balanced’
Does this paragraph come with an English translation? I am just a ‘Hard Science’ graduate from Oxford University and I can’t make head or tail of it. This is not because I am too stupid to understand.
Or is it just complete BS as per ‘synod conjunctions’.

@richard Holle
Presumably one has to define a little more precisely the “electromagnetic interactions” between planets that allow synods with distant planets to have tangible effects on climate. Just referring generally to “electromagnetic interactions” risks falling into the trap alluded to by the following quotation from Richard Dawkins:
“… Imagine a fictional conversation between the lazy alter egos of two scientists working on a hard problem, say A L Hodgkin and A F Huxley who in real life won the Nobel Prize for their brilliant elucidation of the biophysics underlying the nerve impulse.
“I say Huxley, this is a terribly difficult problem. I can’t see how the nerve impulse works, can you?”
“No Hodgkin, I can’t, and these differential equations are fiendishly hard to solve. Why don’t we just give up and say that the nerve impulse propagates by Nervous Energy?”
“Excellent idea Huxley, let’s write the Letter to Nature now, it’ll only take one line, then we can turn to something easier.” “