It looks like they aren’t monkeying around. After delaying the release this week, NOAA plans to showcase the news in a more “robust” setting.
Contact: Susan Buchanan, NOAA
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
301-713-0622 May 21, 2010
NOAA to Issue 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
NOAA will release its initial seasonal outlook for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season during a press conference on May 27 in Washington, D.C. NOAA Administrator Dr. Jane Lubchenco will discuss the outlook with FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate highlighting the critical need for storm preparedness.
What: Press conference announcing NOAA’s 2010 Atlantic hurricane season outlook
When: Thursday, May 27, 10am ET
Where: National Press Club – 13th Floor; Murrow Room
529 14th St. NW
Washington, DC 20045
Media may also participate via conference call. To obtain the number and passcode please e-mail Susan.Buchanan@noaa.gov.
Who:
- Dr. Jane Lubchenco, under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator
- Craig Fugate, administrator, Federal Emergency Management Agency
# # #
Missed out the Why:
I’m sure they’ll be “unprecedented”
What??? No one from TPC (Tropical Prediction Center) will be there for the presentation???? I guess they can’t have too many people up there who know what they are talking about to steal the spotlight from dear ol’ Dr. Jane
Given the warm SSTs along the Atlantic’s equatorial zone, I expect a vigorous hurricane season. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/05/13/r-i-p-el-nino/
NOAA’s data bases needs a thorough going over. Here is an example of questionable result:
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/NFC5.htm
This is NOT how the Earth’s magnetic field behaves!
From your Dog & Pony Show post two days ago, I took your advice and downloaded the NOAA “Global Warming is Unequivocal” PowerPoint before it gets “disappeared”.
It seems to have got disappeared.
Gene Zeien says:
May 21, 2010 at 9:55 am I expect a vigorous hurricane season
It is not only about convection. See they look like the earth version of sunspots.
The oil slick in the gulf should effect storms.
Wonder by how much?
“National Press Club – 13th Floor” Uh-oh, isn’t that bad luck?
You missed one… Why?
It’s not like we would/could do anything differently based on a strong vs weak hurricaine season.
If there is a hurricaine, baton down the hatches and pray to god you ain’t poor and black – cause, help ain’t coming any time soon.
So we must expect a forecast of hurricanes. Most often we have hurricanes. We even have hurricane season so named because we have hurricanes. hen a hurrican smacks into a highly populated area, more damage is done. How is any of this new information?
Here’s how you gotta deal with ‘Robust’. Just think of Scooby Doo: “Ruh Roh, Busted”.
It makes it all better.
========
If they can keep global warming, and especially the A in “man made” out of it, I’d be impressed, and they’d earn back one point of all the points they’ve lost in the recent month’.
But I guess, as always, the funding is more important, hahaha and who said greenies didn’t want money?
2009 tropical storm forecast?
[*] posted on 7/27/2009 at 11:50 PM
Hurricane production is triggered by the Earth’s passing of the outer planets, which hasn’t happened this year since Saturn gave us that batch of tornadoes. My current hurricane forecast is:
The Earth is having a heliocentric (Synodic) conjunction with Jupiter on the 14th of August, 2009, and on the 17th of August with Neptune.
There will be an additional amount of ion flow in the solar wind, from the sun to these planets, that the Earth will be passing through.
The result will the Earth’s homopolar fields will increase, along with a detectable shortening of the LOD for a two week period centered, on the center of mass balance between the two gas planets.
There will be a change in the charge rate that MAY be strong enough to trigger,
an electric grid overload when it tries to conduct through the common ground buss.
The other effect that will be very noticeable will be a strong increase in (monsoon flow) tropical moisture, coming into the mid latitudes from the ITCZ starting about the 28th of July, 2009, carrying a net positive ionic charge, that will bring in increased hail and tornadoes, August 2nd through the 6th, and a greater batch the 13th through the 18th of August.
Globally you should see a big increase in tropical storm activity due to the increasing amount, of energy available, peaking the same period with intensification into hurricane strength, as the discharge phase of cycle starts on the 15th or 16th of August 2009, with the possible power grid outage.
Globally you should see a multiple number of tropical hurricanes ring the globe, as the discharge cycle continues well until, the mid point (about the 1st of September 2009), between this conjunction, and Earth’s Synodic conjunction with Uranus on the 17th of September,
Strong out break of hail and tornadoes from 24th of August till September 2nd, 2009. I expect a strong landfall in central Florida, (about the same track as Andrew had), about the 1st of September.
The Synodic conjunction with Uranus 17th of September, 2009, will be the peak of a smaller charge cycle, giving rise to more global tropical storm production as it passes into the discharge phase, post conjunction. Most noticeable from September 17th thru the 30th, of September.
2010 season forecast;
Originally posted on April 6th 2010:
This August the Earth has a Synod conjunction with Neptune on the August 20th, Venus with Neptune on September 16th, Earth with both Jupiter and Uranus on the September 21st, then Jupiter and Uranus with each other on the 24th September, Venus with Jupiter on the 6th of October and then Earth with Venus on the 29th of October.
I expect many things to be making the news at this time, record hurricane activity globally, quakes lots of places, and new information about the interactions of these systems will be available for us to look at, from the new satellites NOAA put up.
As a result the 2010 hurricane Season starts off slow but winds up big starting with first small T.S./Hurricane Aug 14-24th,
another three (much bigger) from September 13th through 28th, and after thoughts first and last weeks of October, for a total of
8 real named and (three more fudged but really almost too weak = 11)
3 hurricanes
3 total, 1 making landfall in Florida, 2 across Georgia/ Alabama from the gulf side, mid September.
More info…
The analog years I chose are; 1992, 1991, 1974, 1973, 1957, 1956, 1955, 1954, 1937, 1936, 1935, 1920, 1919, 1918,1917, 1901, 1900, 1899, 1898, 1883, 1882, and 1881.
Yields the Averages;
8 named storms,
2.7 Hurricanes
2.5 Making land fall
Enneagram-“Gene Zeien says: May 21, 2010 at 9:55 am I expect a vigorous hurricane season It is not only about convection. See they look like the earth version of sunspots.”
I would just point out that the link that Gene was refering to, with ENSO, is not related to convection but windshear. during a La Nina event the wind shear over the Atlantic ocean tends to be diminished. This is favorable for hurricances, but it is the wind that drives the SST not so much vice versa.
“”Xi Chin says:
May 21, 2010 at 11:18 am
If there is a hurricaine, baton down the hatches and pray to god you ain’t poor and black – cause, help ain’t coming any time soon.””
I hope you’re not serious.
Mark Adams: You wrote, “From your Dog & Pony Show post two days ago, I took your advice and downloaded the NOAA ‘Global Warming is Unequivocal’ PowerPoint before it gets ‘disappeared’.” And concluded with, “It seems to have got disappeared.”
I just opened the Dog and Pony show:
ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/download/Global%20Warming%20is%20Unequivocal%20TKarl%20May%206.ppt
“NOAA Administrator Dr. Jane Lubchenco will discuss the outlook with FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate highlighting the critical need for storm preparedness.”
Thank goodness we have these experts to protect us. Who would have thought that there would be any need for “storm preparedness” in hurricane prone regions?
Xi Chin, I am getting SO tired of people spewing proganda. As everyone along the coast knows, you can’t count on FEMA help for up to three days. That means that individuals living in a hurrican target area are responsible for either 1) getting the hell out of the way or going to a shelter (except for the totally incompetent city of New Orleans, most cities and counties DO provide water and food for shelterers) or 2) hunkering down to shelter at home. Again, it is up to the individual to make sure they have the water and food to survive up to three days. It has nothing to do with color or economic status. But a lot to do with corrupt local government.
Bob: Just tried the link for the dog and pony … and got
This webpage is not found.
No webpage was found for the web address: ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/download/Global%20Warming%20is%20Unequivocal%20TKarl%20May%206.ppt
Mr Watts,
I’ve looked but I can’t find it anywhere on your site.
NOAA put out a release a while back that showed that there was no trend showing the bad placing of sensors causing any anomolies in trending.
I’ve seen the sensors in your pictures, I know for instance Marysville and Orroville California very well and know how hot they are. I saw the trends in your report on your other website with the database and I with my own eyes can see a drastic difference between the two locations, yet the weather is pretty identical generally… hot hot and more hot…
What did they do in their chart to show no or little difference in range from your tested sites and the remaining sites. If they had their way people would think there is nothing to UHIE or bad placement of temp sensors.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/about/response-v2.pdf
I am with Rhoda R.
The greatest evils of modern times have come from governments, of all types. In America, the greatest government evil is the fostering of dependency. As the climate naturally changes and the weather blows, those who wait for the government to help them are fools, regardless of race, creed, color, or national origin. Gaia is an equal opportunity destroyer.
KW
“Where: National Press Club – 13th Floor; Murrow Room”
Ha ha, there is no 13th floor.
From the press release:
“NOAA Administrator Dr. Jane Lubchenco”
Move on, nothing here.
My money is on the monkey.
Humanity has never been in Harmony with nature because humanity has always been at war with nature. Our hope is to continue surviving the battles and the best to do that is personal preparedness. Know what natural disasters are likely for your region and be prepared. The forecasting of hurricanes is just a public relations stunt.
Agree totally, KW, that our planet decides via mechanisms beyond our understanding, that Gaia does what Gaia does!
As if Post Normal Science wasn’t bad enough to politicize Natural Philosophy into X-factor territory we are now suffering from a Canutian Consensualist Certainty that pretends that we have our finger over the GaiaStat!
Apologies to Ex-Majesty, Canute.
Just had a look at the link for the presentation & as of 05-21-2010 9:30 pm, there is no file or link to:
ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/download/Global%20Warming%20is%20Unequivocal%20TKarl%20May%206.ppt
or
ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/download/Global_Warming_is_Unequivocal_TKarl_May_6.ppt
or
ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/download/Global Warming is Unequivocal TKarl May 6.ppt
or any variation thereof
Jeff
Bringing up the directory…
ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/download/
I don’t see the .ppt in question.
Screenshot : http://www.leekington.com/images/NOAAd1.jpg
I would say they will say an A.V.G year for hurricanes.If not above A.V.G.
Richard Holle, is this a joke, or do you really believe this astrology-like stuff?
According to the NOAA, April was the warmest on record:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703315404575250733414681958.html
duly reported by the BBC Harridon, sorry Harrabin, in a sarky piece on Heartland:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8694544.stm
What’s to be made of this?
Sounds like there’s more Chicago Politics involved in NOAA odds making and guesstimation than science. Below Average, Average, and Above Average Weather in any and all global regions is still “Weather”. Climate is such a slow moving phenom that you need about a Century to give you a real trend line.
Yesterday night, in the O´Reilly show, he presented Dr.Hansimian video and his famous super-computarized “models”.
Lee, have your eyes fully acclimated to the blue-text-on-black-background?
Minutes later now, mine are still in pain …
.
.
Sorry, Bob, not now; here’s what results clicking your link (just moments ago):
How SOON they forget; willfully or simple fading memory? Do you not recall the plethora of helicoptor rescues from rooftops in N.O.? It’s been less than 5 years at this point, do you not have more formidable memory faculties than that?
.
.
Xi Chin,
If you think through it, of course, you understand that it takes time to come to grips with a problem of that magnitude. The domestic mobilization for humanitarian assistance/disaster relief in the wake of Katrina was unlike anything I’ve experienced in my life and 20 years in the military. Literally tens of thousands of people worked their hearts out as part of the disaster relief effort for Katrina — many unpaid volunteers and many, many more were mobilized from almost every department in the government.
I was part of the USN response to Katrina. My command provided helicopters, divers, sonars, ships, boats and security personnel. As Katrina was approaching land, I was at sea, off the coast of South Korea, for an exercise where we had been been working 20 hour days for two weeks. We flew out of Seoul just after Katrina made landfall, and on landing in Texas, our jet-lagged team went to work immediately on disaster relief in New Orleans. We also dispatched mine-hunting ships to conduct GoM surveys looking for missing oil rigs – some had drifted over 100 miles in the storm – and we helped restore operations to the LOOP within 72 hours. We didn’t have a day off for weeks, and as soon as we were ready to stand down from Katrina, our command and our families had to evacuate south Texas because of Hurricane Rita. We then conducted operations for that effort as well.
My point? Even if you were just making an off-hand joke, I would just respectfully ask you to reconsider repeating that remark. It’s not accurate and it only pours fuel on the fire of hate politics.
Richard Holle says:
May 21, 2010 at 12:34 pm
Richard, was that serious, or just an attempt to be funny?
@ Xi Chin
Y’all are wasting time. As with the AGW crowd, facts don’t matter when talking with true believers from other crowds. The distortion by the media of the facts regarding the unprecedented massive government response to Katrina was part of the vast left-wing conspiracy that culminated with the disaster the country now faces (the current executive and legislative branches of our government).
Of course, a lot of people who lived through it believed everything they were told, having found no one standing over them with a government check the second the wind stopped blowing.
David Stockwell says:
May 21, 2010 at 2:51 pm
“Where: National Press Club – 13th Floor; Murrow Room”
Ha ha, there is no 13th floor.
—————–
HA HA – Yes there is! Man do people just say stuff?
http://www.press.org/facilities/floor-plan-02.html