February has been an interesting month for weather. It was mostly cold and snow. While Al Gore in his recent NYT op ed and his followers keep warning us of increased severe weather threats, the truth is indeed stranger than fiction.
For the first time ever recorded by NOAA, there has been no tornadoes in February. This news is from the National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman, Oklahoma, the world’s leading experts in tornado research. While it doesn’t tell us anything about the rest of the 2010 season, it is consistent with the lower numbers seen in 2009, which is below the average of recent years.
click for larger image – source: http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/wcm/
For those wanting to examine a climate to tornado connection see: Tornadoes and global warming link – “just not there”
Also of interest is death rates due to severe weather: Going Down: Death Rates Due to Extreme Weather Events
=========================
By Harold Brooks from the NOAA U.S. Severe Weather Blog
There were no tornadoes reported in the United States in February 2010. Assuming that no late reports are received, it will be the first time in the National Weather Service’s database that starts in 1950 that there has been a February without a tornado. If we include Tom Grazulis’s database of F2 and stronger tornadoes, the last time it’s possible there wasn’t a February tornado was 1947. The last tornado reported in the US was on 24 January, in north-central Tennessee. The last calendar month without a tornado was January 2003.
What does this tell us about the rest of the 2010 tornado season? Somewhere between a little and nothing at all. Most years that have started out with few tornadoes have ended up average or below. However, there have been big exceptions. Most notably, in 2003, we started out with no tornadoes in the first 45 days of the year. Even as late as 29 April, it was the slowest start in the database (after adjusting for report inflation, as discussed here.) By the 11th of May, however, 2003 was well above normal following a remarkably active week. So, even though it’s been a slow start to the season, people still need to be aware of the threats that may happen later on.
What does it tell us about long-term trends? Again, essentially nothing. The large-scale atmospheric pattern that persisted over the US for the month of February was unfavorable for tornadoes. There’s nothing in the scientific literature that provides information on any changes to expect with tornadoes in the future, so the no-tornado February can’t be interpreted in that light.
Not a lot of tornados when it’s cold … unless of course you’re making hollywood movies.
“While it doesn’t tell us anything about the rest of the 2010 season, …… ”
Amen to that. If I read the graph correctly, the lowest count graphed for accumulated tornadoes at the end of Feb is the pink line for 2004. That year ended up as the highest total for the year on that graph.
Mother Nature likes to play tricks.
Well, it makes sense I suppose, that if La Nina years have more Tornadoes (which I understand tends to be the case) then an El Nino would have fewer-right?
Oh dear, Theresa Heinz will be furious! She’ll be the laughing stock of the Hollywood/Washington glitterati jet set Copenhagen party community. I pity her poor pussy whipped husband, Senator John Kerry, who did his best to appease her with the following pathetic pronouncement a couple of years back (in the middle of February no less):
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/02/07/kerry-blames-tornado-outbreak-on-global-warming/
Leave it to USA Today !
“More coffee drinking coupled with climate change have reduced supplies of beans,
producers said at an international conference over the weekend.”
It’s all that warm weather making people drink more coffee.
If it is colder there is less lift?
Tim L
OT:
Alarmist’s cause family suicide?!
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/world/1019108/baby-survives-being-shot-in-suicide-pact
Any truth CAGW proponent will just turn their severe weather coin over and say something like:
“The severe lack of severe weather is severe and dangerous, and of course it must be caused by CAGW itself.”
Neat trick, eh?
John
I swear I remember someone saying we are supposed to have MORE violent weather….
I wonder if the warmers are going to blame this on AGW?
Updated charts for deaths and death rates from extreme weather events are available in this paper: Deaths and Death Rates from Extreme Weather Events: 1900-2008, Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons 14 (4): 102-09 (2009). FWIW, it’s peer reviewed, in case any skeptic should ask!
Abstract follows:
[NOTE: I have broken up the abstract so that it’s not one run-on paragraph.
As a resident of Tornado Alley, I hope this trend continues. Of course, if every winter is as cold as this one I may change my mind.
Temperatures have been very cold in February across the south, which makes tornado formation very unlikely.
http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Big cyclone hit Portugal to France, made for wind damage all the way into Germany, shutting down airports and trains. How often does Europe get these cyclones? No doubt the alarmists will try to trumpet it as global warming proof.
Interlude: I just wanted to say that the strapback venison stew I just made was heavenly. I rubbed all kinds of savory seasonings into the blood red tender morsels, quick sauteed in olive oil, then brought out all the pan drippings into the savory sauce with a splash of dry sherry. Then I sauteed the veggies along with onions, pickled garlic (much easier on the stomach but just as tasty) and mushrooms. Everything went back into the pan with a good splash of red wine (Gnarly Head Zinfandel), a can of Italian stewed toms, and spicy tomato juice.
Serve with hot homemade bread.
Yum Yum!
What does this tell us about the rest of the 2010 tornado season? Somewhere between a little and nothing at all.
What does it tell us about long-term trends? Again, essentially nothing.
Wow, thanks.
This is different from the news media picking up on every warm day as proof of AGW exactly how?
Given the Society’s logo features a wheat bushel, does this make it an RSS feed?
Oops, wrong thread
From Accuweather
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/25571/2010-brings-first-tornadofree.asp
comes this little tidbit:
So now we seem to have 6 months during cool weather in 60 years in which there were no tornadoes or, on average, one month every ten years which is tornado-free. Now if we had had a record number of tornadoes in February, that’d be all over the media.
Luke Skywarmer (19:31:48) :
If it is colder there is less lift?
Tim L
Less temperature differential. Warm moist air (usually from the Gulf) hitting cold air from up North. That’s why late spring and early summer have the highest numbers.
The head severe storm guy at our local NWS office (Lubbock Tx) gave a class on storm spotting last week. Very informative.
This is one stat that I’m thankful for. Being in tornado alley sucks in the spring time. Lets just hope that they stay where they are this year.
Indur M. Goklany (19:44:04) :
And they want to take our technology and hydrocarbons away from us. So we can all play Survivor Island.
That’s mighty thoughtful of them.
Ok. Let’s vote them (warmists) on the Island.
Alright Pam. To go with your heavenly stew. Try this heavenly song over at Youtube about our lovely planet. Just copy and paste this into your search. It’s good loud with ear phones on.
Prefab Sprout: Earth The Story So Far
Sorry Anthony. Back on message now.
Weather patterns have move to the extreme south this year allowing for colder air flows than would be the norm.
Colder air is more dense and usually drier and pushes toward the planet more compared to warm air that wants to rise along with evaporation and cloud cover.
Thank the extreme negative Arctic Oscillation and its little cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation [which is now mechanically forced negative for the rest of the winter “season”], for preventing tornado-producing parcels of eneregy-laden tropical air from entering the USA during February.
Is there a new border/fence over the Gulf of Mexico, too? 🙂
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Erratum: “. . . there has been no tornadoes in February.”
Should be: “. . . there HAVE been no tornadoes in February.”
/Mr L
I heard this is just climate chaos and that it’s entirely consistent with what climate models projected.
I then heard my hand slap the guy’s face who said it.
Figuratively speaking of course.
Well sort of.
This is consistent with NAO interaction with PDO to bring colder North American temperatures.
Colder air is far more buoyant (more lift) than warmer air – a fact well known to airplane and helicopter pilots – an airplane uses far less fuel in colder air than warm.
I remember the divorcee and Al Gore escorte Laurie David flying to Oklahoma in the aftermath of a tornado a couple of years ago for no other purpose than to wail in front of a camera, “Is this the world we’re now forced to live in”?
Oh my, I’ve just got to lose 20 pounds… put myself on a grape diet to do it. There’s 11 packages of backstrap venison in the freezer still. Pam’s detailed description of her succulent venison stew is going to make it hard to get any sleep tonight!
so more unfulfilled global warming predictions
”””Pamela Gray (19:51:11) : Interlude: I just wanted to say that the strapback venison stew I just made was heavenly . . . Serve with hot homemade bread.”””
Pamela Gray,
Thanks for the culinary diversion, I can smell it ~8,000 mi. away.
Sounds delicious. What kind of wine, a Petit Shiraz perhaps? Or something more zesty?
NOTE: Around the corner of my apartment building here in Taipei is a wild mountain goat restaurant that has a >24 hr simmered wild goat stew that is very good. I am not kidding [pun only slightly intended]. Of course, wild meat has a more intense flavor that domesticated, the seasons need to be much different.
No grape wine served at the wild goat place, only local beer which is excellent.
Take care.
John
Damnit Pamela!
You just made me drool all over my keyboard!
You are a wicked woman…
Enjoy!
Mike Bentley
The lack of tornadoes shows definite climate change evidence and it is a travesty that it is worse than we thought.
/sarcasm off
Couldn’t resist
Yum, Pamela! So when are you inviting us all up to your place for this strapback venison stew? Lol!
I’ve been too busy ducking snowflakes and staying warm to notice that we had no tornadoes in February. Interesting.
Re: MofM (19:35:44) :
Thanks for the link, MofM, but this is actually not funny at all. If AGW hysteria is driving people to suicide, then alarmists have a lot to answer for.
Of course, there were probably other issues,
the link again is
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/world/1019108/baby-survives-being-shot-in-suicide-pact
It is noteworthy that “global warming” related catastrophes have become so remote that Laurie David has turned her attention – against “plastics.”
[Now THERE’S something to ponder – Laurie David as “anti-plastic”.]
“the truth is indeed stranger than fiction”
cracked me up Anthony – thanks for the laugh!
It’s clear from that graph that Doc Gore is stuck in 2008 and can’t get out. Someone call Marty McFly.
Pamela, have been on a slow cooker binge lately. Pork roast last night, chicken tomorrow night. hopefully one day, venison!
This innocent child – the victim of psychotic cultism –
Does anyone believe there is all that much difference between some of these global warming and enviro cultists like Paul Ehrlich and Jim Jones?
Do ‘Snownado’s count? I think I saw one in February.
http://www.upwardsoulstice.com/pics/0051.jpg
Nobody knows exactly what triggers and drives a tornado.
The quick answer is that warm fronts and cold fronts collide, but close scrutiny & analysis has led many scientists to admit it’s more complex than that and they don’t have all the answers.
Magnetic flux from the Sun is still at a low ebb, but slightly climbing.
There is scientific evidence that tornadoes have an electrical component.
Possibly, the occurance of tornadoes are dampened by this decrease in magnetic flux from the Sun.
Or maybe it’s just more cold from the North or less warmth upwelling from the South — either way you look at it — another blow against AGW.
Well, to be sure, this ought to make up for the lack of a tornado in the USA:
“Marine life tumbled out of the sky on two occasions last week, raining down on the Northern Territory town of Lajamanu, . . .”
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=10629376
A local meteorologist said tonight on his forecast that the US is locked into an Omega pattern. Low on the West Coast, High in the Plains and Low on the East Coast. Said it was very stable and won’t want to move.
Forms an Omega with the jet stream arching over the plains.
March comes in like a Lion if he’s correct.
Funny you should post this story now, I just got done plotting Tornado production by lunar declination form the data found for the 1950 through current listing on NOAA’s storm prediction center web pages.
It still shows the patterns I found when I plotted the data from 1950 to 1989, back in 1992. There is a clear signal in the production of large tornado outbreaks around the times, of Maximum North and Maximum South lunar declinational culmination.
With the additional reporting from the improved coverage from Doppler radar, the patterns is a lot fuller now then it was then. Since it is hard to synchronize a 18.6 year signal to full years, I tried using the 19 year period Metonic cycle where the lunar declination and phase occur again on the same date. All though it results in a .4 year slewing of the declinational angle, it still clumps the tornado production together well in short runs of only three or four cycles.
Next I plotted the same data by lunar declination, but in sets of the Saros cycle of the return of the declination and phase every 18 years +~17 days, in sync with the inner planets, so the solar and lunar eclipses repeats, fall on the same days of the pattern. The resultant pattern of tornado production is a much clearer signal with that method of sorting. Indicating that there may be a common influence in the periodicities that include the inner planets.
The Saros cycle repeating pattern seems to have predictive effects highlighting the subject of this entry, a slow period of tornado production this year till the end of March is a probably.
My daughter has finally gotten to the point in her work load, that she will be able to help me add pages to upload this series of data plotting onto my web site this week or next. When I got finished writing the text content to go with the graphs, and saved the file for further editing and thought tweaking, for clarity. I came in here and found this entry, I will let you know when it is posted to site, and ready for viewing.
Anthony I try not to deluge your blog with endless off topic comments on what I am working on, but this seemed to an ok place to add this.
Richard Holle
Apparently there has been a disruption of power over at CCC – Climate Catastrophes Central. Or are they under general orders to make weather conform to the expectations of the cutting edge global warming skeptic?
Furthermore:
http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2007/08/storm-frequency.html
Everything possible physical phenomenon is at least “consistent with” or “evidence of” AGW except an infinite string of events that are identical to the past mean of all recorded events.
Which would be damn unnatural in its own right. Like an infinite series of coin flips that alternated between heads and tails with out fail.
If every day for the next ten years exactly matched the average temperature for that date and the average precipitation for that date the warmists would claim that “anomalous weather” would return soon …
…with a “vengeance”.
Global Warming Will Bring Violent Storms And Tornadoes, NASA Predicts
ScienceDaily (Aug. 31, 2007) — NASA scientists have developed a new climate model that indicates that the most violent severe storms and tornadoes may become more common as Earth’s climate warms.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/08/070830105911.htm
Just like global mean temperatures, tornado counts are simply displaying natural variability. How anyone can show man-made CO2 has any measurable impact on these events is beyond anyone who has at least some ability to think. Of course AGW alarmists think we do so they must know soemthing the rest of us don’t but are not willing to show us the evidence, or they are committing fraud. Take your pick.
”””John F. Hultquist (22:21:28) : Well, to be sure, this ought to make up for the lack of a tornado in the USA:
“Marine life tumbled out of the sky on two occasions last week, raining down on the Northern Territory town of Lajamanu, . . ””””
John,
In my teens [~50 yrs ago] I stumbled on a book in my school library called “The Book of the Damned” by Charles Henry Fort. The theme was facts that established science “damned”. It goes into many instances of raining down things both living and inorganic. Also, it goes into things seen passing in front of the full moon or the sun, etc, etc. There is some info about online. Just Bing/Google it.
John
Indur M. Goklany (19:44:04) :
That’s great news, Indur!
(Not because i love it when AGW’s promises crumble but because every life saved is great news.)
“rbateman (19:47:53) :
Big cyclone hit Portugal to France, made for wind damage all the way into Germany, shutting down airports and trains. How often does Europe get these cyclones?”
In Germany we have storms like this regularly, mostly in spring and in autumn. Looks like the french had bad luck with a couple of broken dykes and severe flooding and 50 or so dead at La Rochelle, thousands had to climb on the roofs of their houses.
So, it was a pretty bad storm but nothing unprecedented.
..but be careful not to repeat the Al-armist’s misstake to interpret every least sign in their favour. Sensible people await a clear trend before drawing conclusions, don’t they?
John Whitman (21:04:12) :
I’ve always said that the best food in the world is in Taipei. There used to be a “dumpling” restaurant up on Chung Shan North Road, Section 3 – too much to hope it would still be there…. and just around the corner Uncle Tony Grueneger ran a Swiss restaurant…. every kind of schitznel you could imagine. The Cottinghams had the Ploughman Pub two blocks over from the President Hotel… and the Taiwan Users Group met upstairs at the American Legion in Shih-lin…. We created the computer revolution, right there….
Count your blessings.
According to Joe Bastardi, 2010 will be a hefty Tornado season.
In this video he tells you why!
http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-demand.asp?video=68159005001&channel=VBLOG_BASTARDI&title=Nasty%20Hurricane%20Season%20Lurking&ctr=2
Sorry, that was Hurricane Season!
Re. Pamela gray 7. 51
I think a recipe of the day slot, whilst a useful addition to these pages, may be a sign of overconfidence and complacency. Anyway I am a left wing, veggie and I live in the fens(uk). I am a flatearther though. I would be interested in your pickled garlic recipe though:-)
But.. but… storms are supposed to be getting stronger and more frequent because of global warming… BRAD PITT SAID SO!!!!!!!
As I recall, there were a number of fairly short-lived tornado warnings issued across the southern states east of Texas in February. If so, this would indicate that conditions were close to, if not actually productive of, tornados. The absence of tornados may be more a matter of degree than anything, and not really the “big event” that its being hyped up to be.
In my neck of the frozen north, we had a September a few years ago with absolutely no rain – not a drop, unheard of – one of the nicest months I can ever recall. Oddly, the sun still came up Oct. 1.
“What does it tell us about long-term trends? Again, essentially nothing.”
________________________
So true!
There is one ‘long term trend’ that I have a problem getting my mind off of. Not that I’m ‘worried’ you understand; I firmly believe I’ll be nothing but dust before it ever arrives. But all this talk of ‘weather’ and ‘climate’ keeps this ‘trend’ in the front of my head – for some strange reason. I guess that’s why I keep poking my nose in at WUWT – to see if I can see this special ‘trend’ or here more about it (by some miracle).
They say a pic is worth a thousand words. Here’s what I talking about, doesn’t it look like a ‘long term trend’ to you?
http://img527.imageshack.us/img527/8615/allpaleotemp.png
Hmm. . . Strike-through of ‘has’ didn’t work. Not ‘s’ in angled brackets?
One of Gore’s early propaganda efforts was a book by AGW promoter Bob Reiss, called ‘The Coming Storm’. Gore wrote the forward to the book, calling it a great example of what is coming towards us if we do not regulate CO2.
The book opens with a vignette of a tornado that kills a promising college student, in a city that gets occasional tornadoes, but Reiss asserts that the killer tornado is actually AGW caused, and we will see even more…..soon. The book was published in 2001.
Reiss promises us that we are already experiencing ‘extreme weather’ and it will only get worse.
And who is it who confuses weather with climate?
Our AGW believer friends.
And who calls every weather event as *proof* of their point of view?
Our AGW friends.
Kerry you are not educated very well.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/02/07/kerry-blames-tornado-outbreak-on-global-warming/
We only have a few decades of satellite data and they even miss tornadoes. We have 1 half century of teevee reporters and before then they have nothing. It doesn’t mean anything other than we haven’t had one reported.
On the otherhand, it takes heat and lift to create one.
Mind if you keep things more private?
Some of us lost our crops last summer due to frost caused by warming.
Kinda like the potatoe famine.
The libs really also have issues with placing Bambi on the dining table.
Here’s the link on amazon to his collected works; used copies start at $2. It’s better to start with his 3rd and 4th books, e.g., “Lo!”:
http://www.amazon.com/Book-Damned-Collected-Works-Charles/dp/1585426415/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1267538827&sr=1-1
B H Obama referred to the Tornado from Greensburg Kansas as having killed 10,000 people. The population was under 2,000 and the actual deaths were 11 or 12.
“In case you missed it, this week, there was a tragedy in Kansas. Ten thousand people died — an entire town destroyed,” the Democratic presidential candidate said Tuesday in a speech to 500 people packed into a sweltering Richmond art studio for a fundraiser.
Weather can be lied about for political purposes.
Does this put the lefty lying about a political agenda tied to global warming into pwerspective?
Brian G Valentine (20:40:21) :
This is consistent with NAO interaction with PDO to bring colder North American temperatures.
Except that the PDO is practically neutral right now. Now maybe that’s enough, along with a strongly negative AO, to create a loopy jet stream bringing masses of cold continental polar air into the deep south. Then, couple that with El Nino and above average precipitation and you get … record snows. And while I know you can get tornadoes in winter — from personal experience, I live in Arkansas — that only happens in a mild winter. This has been a hard winter in the south, and midwest, i.e. all throughout “tornado alley” and it has lingered on.
I agree with you, that the lack of tornadoes is consistent with the weather patterns we’re seeing, but just question what role the PDO is having seeing as it has gone neutral coincident with current El Nino. If we’re still in a “negative” phase of the PDO, I suppose that means that the PDO didn’t go strongly positive.
Recent values of the PDO:
2009** -1.40 -1.55 -1.59 -1.65 -0.88 -0.31 -0.53 0.09 0.52 0.27 -0.40 0.08
2010** 0.83
If that last value doesn’t retreat in the next few months, we’re going to hear a lot about it, i.e. what happened to the 30 year phases of the PDO?
Sorry. My bad. It’s just that every time I read a post about “..tornado…”, my brain read “…tomato…”. So off I went to the kitchen. And yes, a somewhat zesty, less fruity red wine would work very well. Now back to tom…tornadoes.
Quote: “ABSTRACT
Proponents of drastic greenhouse gas controls claim that human greenhouse gas emissions cause global warming, which then exacerbates the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, including extreme heat, droughts, floods, and storms such as hurricanes and cyclones. In fact, even though reporting of such events is more complete than in the past, morbidity and mortality attributed to them has declined globally by 93%–98% since the 1920s.”
How can a 0.2091% (at most) global temperature increase on the Kelvin temperature scale within the past century “exacerbate the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events”, at least to the extent that it can be documented as a causation? The math says it’s a statistically insignificant temperature increase and a statistically insignificant thermal energy increase, thus these claims are rubbish. While a decline in morbidity and mortality attributed to extreme weather events is a minor (and loosely correlated) contraindication to this claim by AGW proponents, the majority of the reduction is most likely due to improvements in weather forecasts, watches, warnings, advance evacuations, states of emergency, more stringent building codes, localized geoengineering, technological advancements, faster and more intense emergency response, etc. Why did the Abstract even mention global warming? Certainly not to argue that the reduction in deaths and injuries due to extreme weather means less extreme weather since the 1920’s, but rather to point out the degree of alarmism practiced by the AGW proponents.
Just to reiterate:
“There were no tornadoes reported in the United States in February 2010. ”
[Emphasis Mine].
While this isn’t a slander against the tornado reporting mechanisms, it’s important to realize, as with other natural events, and particularly with comparing these events to historical data, that there are fewer and less accurate events than there are today.
Likewise, future events will be more numerous than that of today simply through better observation.
Although hurricane Katrina was tragic, it was not really spectacular or more severe than any other hurricane, except in the perfect formation. The evidence of hurricane and tornado effects are extremely short lived – except when people have some investment where they fall.
@Henry chance (06:28:52) :
“B H Obama referred to the Tornado from Greensburg Kansas as having killed 10,000 people. The population was under 2,000 and the actual deaths were 11 or 12.”
Yes Henry, the AGW “big lie” has to be repeated often and in many flavors.
BHO making things up? Who would have guessed!
Is this consistent with a Dalton/Maunder like minimum, where decreased electromagnetic atmosphere activity is expected?
I don’t think we can say this enough, “Anthropogenic Global Warming” is man made global warming. Some might say Mannmade, or Goremade, but the bottom line is that it really is man made. It’s time to STOP denying the obvious! It is, was, (will be?) the biggest, civilization crushing, money grabbing trick of all time. And it was just a man made hoax.
PS: Have you noticed: there’s so much more in a name these days. Linda ‘Tripp’, Al ‘Gore’. I’m not sure what the Indian meaning is for Rajendra ‘Pachauri’ is, but I have a feeling it’s real bad.
According to “scientists” there will be alergyc storms instead:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/hsn/20100301/hl_hsn/globalwarmingkicksupallergystorm
When people stoop to such arguments as “more snow is consistent with what Climate Science tells us about AGW, then they have really shot themselves in the head.
They could equally have said, “well, AGW theory probably isn’t PERFECT” or something – instead, they have to act like Junior High kids caught in a lie – make up a preposterous story to cover their own lies, and be stupid enough to think that people will believe them.
But, what you didn’t know is, Global Warming causes low tornado output. Well, when there is more moisture in the atmosphere(caused by Global Warming), there are bigger storms spread out over a larger area. Less moisture allows smaller storms in smaller areas to concentrate enough to produce a tornado. I base this robust scientific conclusion on NOTHING! But most scientists agree.
This is MSN news, have a good night and see you tomorrow sheeple.
JonesII (07:23:56) wrote: “Is this consistent with a Dalton/Maunder like minimum, where decreased electromagnetic atmosphere activity is expected?”
I don’t know if it is, but the idea would be interesting to investigate because there is scientific evidence that tornadoes are an “electromagnetic atmosphere activity”.
If true, it would mean with a solar minimum, and, particularly a prolonged solar minimum, there would possibly be a trend toward less “electromagnetic atmosphere activity”, including less tornadoes.
O/T but not too..
Scientists worldwide since the dawn of the Age of Reason, and even some ‘scientists’ of low morals and integrity, have wondered about the Earth’s Tilt and the change of location of the Earth’s magnetic poles and Ice Ages and weather changes, etc., etc.. Today, thanks to NASA, they have an answer to many of their questions. Major Earthquakes do it.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aLAUn4Gy92ss
The Earth is 4.6 billion years old and we have actual records for only 0.00000003% of it, the rest being proxies and speculation. When we use the word “ever” for a weather event, we don’t sound serious.
Pascvaks,
(SOUND FX)
Swish! ZZZZZZZ! Splash! bubble, bubble, twang, splashy-splash, scoop, thud flapity-flap.
Put me in the ice chest, you had me hook line and sinker for a moment there. Hadn’t tumbled to that definition of AGW. I like it.
PS Don’t give me to Pamela, she’ll cook me, and serve me probably with a Columbia Valley white wine.
Mike
“If true, it would mean with a solar minimum, and, particularly a prolonged solar minimum, there would possibly be a trend toward less “electromagnetic atmosphere activity”, including less tornadoes.”
Possibly, but I would guess that the EM activity associated with tornadoes is local and not global, as is the EM activity associated with lightning.
OceanTwo (07:02:56) :
Just to reiterate:
“There were no tornadoes reported in the United States in February 2010. ”
[Emphasis Mine].
While this isn’t a slander against the tornado reporting mechanisms, it’s important to realize, as with other natural events, and particularly with comparing these events to historical data, that there are fewer and less accurate events than there are today.
Likewise, future events will be more numerous than that of today simply through better observation.
My reply;
case in point where it really shows up is in the number of reported earthquakes as the continuous adding of more stations, and more sensitive upgrades to older systems, allows for much more sensitivity, and better coverage of previously “Seismically Quiet areas” due to complete lack of coverage 60 to100 years ago.
In the case with tornado reporting in the beginning from 1950 to 1955, they pulled records of reports of property damage, deaths or injury, that resulted in the generation of either a newspaper story, or insurance claim from which they pulled the first 5 years of records, before they started a network of reporting services, using police and highway patrol officers as valid reporters.
County ag extension agents and sheriff deputies were added in some states, before they got a full fledged reporting system rolling by 1957. With the storm spotter program more real people viewers were added continually as they were recruited and trained, then when the Nexrad Doppler radar systems, came on line they were able to detect “potential circulation” patterns to be investigated from the ground, and many short term funnels were seen dropping from clouds for very short periods of time, greatly increasing numbers reported.
So yes it is judicious to sort the reported total numbers, for production of f2+ storms, to be comparable to the past reported storm levels.
There is a lot of data in the research that shows electrical activity is involved in most tornadoes, that were well studied, but it is hard to be in the right place at the right time to see something that lasts for less than a hour most of the time.
For the details of the ground floor action check this link;
http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/vortex2/
””Robert E. Phelan on March 2, 2010 at 1:21 am: I’ve always said that the best food in the world is in Taipei. There used to be a “dumpling” restaurant up on Chung Shan North Road, Section 3 – too much to hope it would still be there…. and just around the corner Uncle Tony Grueneger ran a Swiss restaurant….””
Pamela, see what you started ..
Robert,
I am guessing, sounds like you were in Taipei sometime between the late ’70s to the mid ’80s or so. That was the period of one of my stays in Taipei. So if you were there when I was then I probably saw you at Ploughmans, or America Legion or the Tien Mou Mongolian Barbeque or at Mary’s Hamburger or in sugardaddy alley somewhere (wife hates the alley so my times there were extremely brief). For Swiss/German food I used to go the Zum Fass, is that the place you were talking about? Did you spend any quality time in snake alley? I can update you on the status of all those old places. NOTE: I had dinner last week in the restaurant that now is where Ploughmans used to be.
John
Odd, I remember some waterspouts being spotted off the California coast this winter. Maybe I’m thinking of a different month.
Pascvaks (05:01:46) :
“What does it tell us about long-term trends? Again, essentially nothing.”
Correct. Because hurricanes are produced by non-linear process, trends have no significance. They are the result of processes driven by deterministic chaos and their turbulent progression tends to reduce the amount of energy in our climate system. These major weather features can produce significant longer-term effects. An explanation for the electrical effects often observed in hurricanes would help our understanding of these high energy systems.
Just wait for it: From Algore “FACT: Global Warming causes less tornadoes”
Re: Andy Scrase (21:19:30) :
It was not intended to be “funny”. Apologies if the “?!” punctuation gave the wrong impression.
My winter forecast as of 14 December 2009, let me know how it came out?
Note towards the bottom my forecast for the first outbreak in 2010 to be in March around the 22nd.
#
My 2009 – 2010 Winter out look
One of the problems with the current models is the reference time frame is very narrow for initial conditions, and changes with in the past three days, a lot of times, will introduce presistance of inertia, to the medial flows, for several days, consistent with the actual flows, as the Lunar declinational atmospheric tides, make their runs across the equator from one poleward culmination to another.
Then as the tide turns and we have the severe weather bursts at declinational culmination, they get confused, or surprised, as the initial inertial effects reverse for about four days before the sweep to the other pole, that brings back the smooth flows, the models understand.
So that when the Lunar declination went to Maximum North on December 3rd, turbulence and shear introduced into the atmosphere, from the turning tide, (the models do not know about), surprised them with the usual couple of tornadoes. Now (12-13-09) that we are ~20 degrees South Lunar declination, the models have a full buffer, of five days of linear inertial movement, from the Moon’s trip South across the equator (12-09-09) and is slowing it’s movement.
Coming up on the Southern extent culmination, producing a secondary tidal bulge in the Northern Hemisphere, bringing us to the mid point of a 27.32 day declinational cycle (one of the four routine patterns that cycle on an 109.3 day period). This particular one (#1) that started back on Dec 3rd, has incursions of polar air masses that come down from Western Canada, through Montana and the Dakotas, to make up the Northern part of the atmospheric tidal bulge.
So I would expect to see a large invasion of cold dry air sweep almost all the way to the Gulf coast again, then the produced frontal boundary with the interesting weather, that includes change state intense precipitation. Freezing rain, where the warm over runs cold, and snow where the cold undercuts the more sluggish warm air, still moving North East by inertia alone, severe weather to form in that trailing edge of the warm moist mass, that gets over taken from behind by the polar air mass that tries to follow the tidal bulge back to the equator, which for the next 4 of 5 days powers up the cyclonic patterns generated by carolis forces, and finishes out as the Moon approaches the equator again.
Expect the same type of interaction again for a primary bulge production by the passage back North, culminating on 12-30-09, pumping in a solid polar air mass very consistent with the pattern we had on 12-03-09, (the North “lunar declination culmination”)[LDC], then (#2) the next Rossby wave / jet stream regime pattern, comes back into play with much more zonal flow, and air masses invading from the Pacific, (of the two sub types of) phase with lesser amounts of Gulf moisture entrainment in this one, more in the other #4.
The (#3) third 27.32 day pattern with polar air masses invading in from the Minnesota / Great Lakes area and sweeping out through the Eastern sea board, and mostly zonal flow out west, from 01-27-10 till 02-23-10, comes next.
The fourth 27.32 day cycle, that looks very similar to #2 but with much more moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, usually has more hail and tornadoes associated with it than Pattern #4, and typically flows up Eastern side of tornado alley. Will be in effect from 02-23-10 through 03-22-10, and should produce the first big surge of severe tornado production, from about March 20th 2010, until about March 26 or later as the Next polar air mass cycle is coming out of western Canada, and should make for steep temperature gradients, and ion content differences.
Richard Holle
Link to site with the daily maps for the next 4 years.
http://www.aerology.com/national.aspx
Third attempt, I think I tried to post too long a responce, clipped most of it.
Back on the 14th of December 2009, I posted a spring winter forecast below is an excerpt about the forecast for the spring out break of tornadoes I was expecting then.
Expect the same type of interaction again for a primary bulge production by the passage back North, culminating on 12-30-09, pumping in a solid polar air mass very consistent with the pattern we had on 12-03-09, (the North “lunar declination culmination”)[LDC], then (#2) the next Rossby wave / jet stream regime pattern, comes back into play with much more zonal flow, and air masses invading from the Pacific, (of the two sub types of) phase with lesser amounts of Gulf moisture entrainment in this one, more in the other #4.
The (#3) third 27.32 day pattern with polar air masses invading in from the Minnesota / Great Lakes area and sweeping out through the Eastern sea board, and mostly zonal flow out west, from 01-27-10 till 02-23-10, comes next.
The fourth 27.32 day cycle, that looks very similar to #2 but with much more moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, usually has more hail and tornadoes associated with it than Pattern #4, and typically flows up Eastern side of tornado alley.
Will be in effect from 02-23-10 through 03-22-10, and should produce the first big surge of severe tornado production, from about March 20th 2010, until about March 26
or later as the Next polar air mass cycle is coming out of western Canada, and should make for steep temperature gradients, and ion content differences.
Richard Holle
Link to site with the daily maps for the next 4 years.
http://www.aerology.com/national.aspx
Can’t those pesky tornados understand that their absence doesn’t fare well for global monetary re-distribution? The very nerve of their air currents…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/globalwarming/7367555/Hurricane-Katrina-victims-to-sue-oil-companies-over-global-warming.html
this law suit could well be the the ‘black swan’ that Gore & Co do not want.
now that their ‘science’ has failed the test, all they have is $$$ powered momentum.
regards