From the “weather is not c..c..cl..climate” department, cold and snow hits hard. Meanwhile, Hot Weather Convinces Media of Climate Change; Cold Weather Ignored.
And it heads far south too. A hard freeze warning has been issued for the Miami and Fort Lauderdale area:
And lest somebody say that this cold event isn’t significant, I’ll let the NWS do the talking here:
Longest Stretch of Cold Weather in 15 to 25 Years Possible This Week
…Longest Stretch of Much Below Normal Temperatures in 15 to 25 Years Possible…
Temperatures are expected to remain much below normal over all of south Florida this week, with the possibility of even colder temperatures this upcoming weekend. For detailed information on expected temperatures, please follow the indicated links for our textual and graphical forecasts. For freeze/wind chill watches and warnings, please check our hazards page.
It is not unheard of to have freezing or near-freezing temperatures in south Florida each winter. In fact, inland areas south and west of Lake Okeechobee experience freezing temperatures at least once a year on average. Over the metro and coastal areas of south Florida, freezing temperatures are less frequent, but even in these areas freezing temperatures have occurred about every 5 to 10 years on average. Temperatures drop to at least 35 about every 1 to 2 years in the Naples area, and about every 2 years in the outlying areas of southeast Florida. For the urban areas of Miami/Fort Lauderdale, temperatures drop to at least 35 degrees about 2 to 3 times a decade, At West Palm Beach, the average is about every 1 to 2 years.
What is more noteworthy about the current cold snap is the duration of the event. Typical south Florida cold snaps last about 2-3 days before winds switch to an easterly direction and blow warmer Atlantic air across the region. However, our current weather pattern is what is referred to as a “blocking pattern”. This means that weather systems that typically move from west to east at fairly regular intervals are instead remaining in place for several days. A strong low pressure system over northern New England and eastern Canada is being “blocked” by a large high pressure system near Greenland. This in turn is creating a stationary high pressure system over the western U.S. and Canada. The result of this blocked flow is an uninterrupted and prolonged flow of air from the Arctic region of Canada southward over the eastern two-thirds of the country, including Florida.
Temperatures have dropped to below 50 degrees for three consecutive mornings over almost all of south Florida, with temperatures dropping to 45 or lower from Collier County east to Palm Beach County and points north. The latest forecast calls for lows to drop below 45 degrees over all of south Florida through Thursday morning. This would give 6 consecutive days of sub-50 and/or 45 degree-or-lower temperatures.
Following are the dates of the last time we had at least 6 consecutive days of low temperatures below 50 degrees in southeast Florida:
Miami and Fort Lauderdale: January 2001
Record is 13 days in Miami (January – February 1940) and 12 days in Fort Lauderdale in January 1956
West Palm Beach: January 2003
Record for West Palm Beach is 12 days set in December 2000-January 2001 and January 1956.
Following are the dates of the last time we had 6 consecutive days of low temperatures of 45 degrees or lower in Naples;
Naples: December 1989
Record for Naples is 8 days in January 1977.
Following are the dates of the last time we had 5 consecutive days of low temperatures of 40 degrees or lower in Moore Haven;
Moore Haven: January 24-28, 2001.
Record for Moore Haven is 9 days from December 31, 2000 to January 8, 2001.
Therefore, it’s been at least 7 years since we’ve had a prolonged stretch of temperatures in the 40s and 30s, with some areas going back as far as 21 years! Taking into account the daily average temperature, it’s possible that we’ll have up to 5 consecutive days of temperatures averaging at least 10-15 degrees below normal. For most of south Florida, the last time we had a stretch that cold was in 1995, with some areas going back to the mid to late 1980s.
Here’s a sampling of headlines around the world:
Temps Plunge to Record as Cold Snap Freezes North, East States
Seoul buried in heaviest snowfall in 70 years
Vermont sets ‘all-time record for one snowstorm’
Iowa temps ‘a solid 30 degrees below normal’
Power goes out at Reagan National outside DC
Seoul buried in heaviest snowfall in 70 years
Peru’s mountain people ‘face extinction because of cold conditions’…
World copes with Arctic weatherWinter Could Be Worst in 25 Years for USA
Britain braced for heaviest snowfall in 50-years
GAS SUPPLIES RUNNING OUT IN UK
Miami shivers from coldest weather in decade
Northern Sweden on the way to 50 degrees below zero
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You are not alone folks… China’s cold weather has led to energy rationing to keep energy going (so they can keep Wallmart’s shelves filled 😉
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/world/6649629/cold-snap-spurs-power-rationing-in-china/
Meanwhile countries in Europe are short of grit for the roads after the harsh wintery conditions of the last week or so.
But this is all weather of course… not to be confused with climate.
I am amazed that nearly the entire state of Virginia is snow covered according to this. I can’t recall that happening this early in the winter for quite some time.
I’m OK accepting that weather is not climate, if climate change activists will accept that human society changes, across generations.
Our children’s children may face climate change, but they will have already faced social and technical change.
As social change has been speeding up over the centuries and millennia, the social change experienced by those future generations will likely be much greater than anything climate change can throw at them.
There seems to be this image that our children’s children will be driving cars, commuting to work, consuming pizzas and buying large flat screen TVs.
We’re talking about 50 to 100 years (for climate) when society will be largely unrecognizable.
They say the future is already here, it just isn’t evenly distributed yet. Well in 100 years, maybe 10% per cent of teenagers may be reaching levels of cognition that are seen in only a tiny tiny percentage of people today. They will see themselves in different ways. They will have different desires and needs. Their motivations will be different. And this will change society and the economy. Combine that with new technological possibilities, and the world is, quite simply, entirely unpredictable.
But no, in 100 years we’ll be munching pizzas in our SUVs. Really.
Here is an article published in 2003 that was more or less ignored by the MSM.
It suggests the gulf stream has little effect on UK weather.
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/forget-about-the-gulf-stream-britain-is-really-kept-warm-in-winter-by-the-rocky-mountains-597214.html
I think its findings should be on the WUWT site.
Sorry if someone has posted this, but I guess we are all officially “wacko’s” now on Wiki:
Wacko alert?
Recently posted off in Wottsup [25]:
I would invite all readers to help improving the climategate article on wikipedia, which has been hijacked by alarmists that have a troop of sleepless zealots that work in conjunction with the aim to keep the page as useless as possible. Please bear in mind the use of reliable sources and read and add your views in the discussion page before changing the main article. We need more people to counter W. Connolley and his troop of alarmists:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climatic_Research_Unit_e-mail_hacking_incident
talk page: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Climatic_Research_Unit_e-mail_hacking_incident
William M. Connolley (talk) 16:17, 5 January 2010 (UTC)
Probably worth mention at the Climate change probation page. Semi-protection is always an option. Guettarda (talk) 16:38, 5 January 2010 (UTC)
At the moment, SPAs don’t seem to be a huge problem. If it becomes one, I’m considering some sort of enhanced semi-protection (e.g. 100 edits, registered 3 months ago) I have no idea what the numbers would be at the moment. But right now there doesn’t seem to be a huge problem. Prodego talk 17:27, 5 January 2010 (UTC)
The person who posted that comment to Wottsup is obviously a regular contributor to this Wikipedia topic, so it might not be a good idea to refer to them as a “wacko”. This is a clear case of meat puppetry though, and that should probably be addressed in some manner. — Scjessey (talk) 17:57, 5 January 2010 (UTC)
I’ve tried to AGF and made a comment on William M. Connolley (talk • contribs) talk page, but what happens? I get attacked, ridiculed, and minimalized. My point was don’t use such words describing other people contributing to other web pages like wacko, Wottsup etc. Thanks! Nsaa (talk) 07:24, 6 January 2010 (UTC)
Sorry that you’re offended by a little levity about potential meatpuppets. As for Watts Up With That? (or wottsup? in common English as spoke in the sarf) this post from the Big Yin may inform you a bit more about the issue that was so sneakily hidden away here.
Please accept that going on about it is not a way of improving this particular article, and hence is inappropriate for this talk page which is governed by talk page guidelines. Hope that sets things to rest, do feel free to discuss it further on my talk page rather than cluttering up this article talk page. Thanks, dave souza, talk 08:02, 6 January 2010 (UTC)
Yes, it is indeed a very good sign that local weather is not global weather, not to say it has not much to do with climate. the global temperatures are much higher than last year and january started quite strong: might be going to set a new record (see channel 5 for tropospheric temps)
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/
And our governments are throwing billions at …….. global warming!
And our governments are making it a lot harder ……. to keep warm
Next hit will be food availability and prices
OT: interesting you can see the SO2 plume from Nyamulagira volcano in Africa:
http://satepsanone.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/OMI/OMISO2/blowup_drag_ME.html
Wait for the java applet to load and scroll the screen to the right to see Africa.
this cold event isn’t insignificant…
I was in ninth grade Catholic high school when it snowed, in Miami, at about 9:00am, 1977. It dissipated when it hit the ground, but it was still snow. Good times…
Regarding China, in a Times article reprinted in the Dominion-Post here in .N.Z. and titled “Icy Blast Wreaks Havoc Across Nations,” this bit astounded me,
“Guo Hu, the head of ths Beijing Meteorological Bureau, linked this week’s weather to unusual atmospheric patterns caused by global warming.”
As we say down here in the antipodes, “Yeah right!”
>>You are not alone folks… China’s cold weather has
>>led to energy rationing to keep energy going (so they
>>can keep Wallmart’s shelves filled 😉
Yes, two hundred years after we in the UK abolished slavery, it has been reinvented in the form of Chinese slavery. Slaves are still slaves, even if they don’t have chains – zero pay, never ending work, no freedom to leave.
Meanwhile our adult population have no work to do, and sit at home consuming cheap products from – Wallmart.
Don’t you love modern politics.
.
Anthony,
This is most interesting, the prestigious Norwegian Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, which develops one of the most serious climate models being used by IPCC, now claims “several cold winters” in the pipeline, but the climate crisis is not cancelled. Article is here, it is indeed worth reading for WUWT audience because this may be the new “explanations” they typically come up in the future…
Best Regards,
Invariant
http://translate.google.co.uk/translate?prev=no&hl=en&u=http://www.aftenbladet.no/energi/klima/1138158/Avlyser_ikke_klimakrisen_men_det_er_flere_kalde_vintre_i_vente.html
Climate crisis is not cancelled. But now it may be a period of several cold winters than we have had in 1980 – and 90-century.
Published 04.01.2010 23:44
There is nothing in the way for more snow and colder winters in the next 10 to 20 years. This coincides with the global temperature increase, and is completely natural weather stations, according to climate scientist Erik W. Kolstad, Bjerknes Center in Bergen.
Natural
– The weather we are experiencing now is a result of natural variability, “says Kolstad.
But he does not cancel the climate crisis:
– When you look at the thermometer now indicates it may be five degrees below zero. But a hundred years ago, it would have been minus six degrees, “says Kolstad.
In average temperature on earth has risen by almost one degree since measurements began in 1870. But the parallel’s also the natural variations, and there are those who have given us the cold winter days in December and early January.
Stratosphere
The meteorological explanation for the cold we are experiencing now, is called “the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Since December we have had a negative NAO, which occurs when the strong winds that are common in the higher air layers, called the stratosphere, or braked sharply to a halt.
– We do not know why the NAO is changing, “says Kolstad. But we know that when we get a negative NAO, it leads, statistically, with a period of two months where the likelihood of cold periods increases. Kolstad We therefore believe that the winter will remain cool for one to two weeks, and it may well be that we get more cold periods in the near future.
Continued warming
– This has nothing to do with global warming to do. These are normal variations, “says Kolstad and refers to the story:
In 1950 -, 1960 – and to some extent the 1970s, it was common practice with even more prolonged periods of negative NAO, which provides cold on the ground. Then came the -80 and-90s where it was almost exclusively weather pattern with positive NAO.
– The main reason that we have had less snow in recent decades, compared with 50 – and 60-years, is that we have had fewer periods of negative NAO. But snowy winters will come back, “said Kolstad.
May be colder
– For all we know, we can now go into a 20-year period with more negative NAO in weather patterns. When we get more snow and winter, “says climate researcher.
Kolstad has done research on the relationship found between the currents in the North Atlantic Oscillation and cold periods. Now a researcher, he continued on to find the previsions of the stratospheric warming, so we can sign them before and understand them better.
At this time, not the researchers at the Bjerknes Center provide a clear answer on why they occur or when they occur.
– But we believe there are signs of this, we are looking only for relationships, “says climate researcher Erik W. Kolstad.
Parallel Climate Crisis
The global temperature increase, which takes place in parallel with the natural weather stations, have in the winter the greatest impact on those days where the temperature is around zero degrees, and they are quite a lot of here in the west. Then the one degree temperature increase in the average will be decisive for whether the precipitation falls as snow or rain and the snow that remains.
– The climate impact is greater in other parts of the world, where there also live many more people than in the northern hemisphere. There is one degree increase in temperature difference between dry or not dry, “says Kolstad.
Worse elsewhere
In Norway and Northern Europe will not be one-degree increase in temperature to destroy food production. Rather the opposite: earlier spring and later autumn gives farmers no longer growing season and larger crops.
-The consequences of global warming are no less important even if they happen in other parts of the world than our own, “says Kolstad.
mkurbo:
Don’t spend your time and energy on wickedpedia; it is a failed experiment, and all people seriously involved in it are as out of touch with reality as videogamers competing for stats.
Mr. Vermeulen,
None of the data presented on the site you linked supports your statement.
twawki (00:54:44) :
Exactly.
And then theyll link that to “climate change” and try to scare the people some more by proclaiming; ” Expect MUCH worse than this due to global warming!”
This flow of “cold record” postings is now going on for a month of more. Also the whole of Europe is freezing cold since more than a month. And yet the global temperature is still 0,3°C higher than the average in the reference period. So what is the use of the contineous “cold record” news ? Trying to persuade people that global warming is not as bad as the “official warmist talk” try to make us believe ? Why is that bloody temperature then not dropping below the reference zero-anomaly ?
Intriguingly, the NZ December average, per NIWA was 0.3C below the long term December average: see http://www.niwa.co.nz/our-science/climate/publications/all/cs/monthly/climate-summary-for-december-2009/?a=100092. There has been some mention on MSM that this is due to el Nino but who really knows?
And the Daily Express , well is expresses doubts in AGW
http://www.dailyexpress.co.uk/posts/view/149966
Independant is still on message and will no doubt be winning the Mann award for BS
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/global-warming-is-happening-even-if-it-doesnt-feel-like-it-1858998.html
and
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/no-conflict-between-big-freeze-and-climate-change-1858530.html
Rob Vermeulen (00:54:33) :
“Yes, it is indeed a very good sign that local weather is not global weather, not to say it has not much to do with climate. the global temperatures are much higher than last year and january started quite strong: might be going to set a new record (see channel 5 for tropospheric temps)
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/“
Reply: Sorry Roy, no cigar for you.
Our climate is driven by deterministic chaos and it’s outputs are non-linear. This means that it is easy to “cherry pick” to find the trend you want to see. Here’s a quote from Dr. Roy Spencer which shows a differing view:-
“The global-average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly fell back to the October level of +0.28 deg. C in December.
The tropics continue warm from El Nino conditions there, while the NH and SH extratropics anomalies cooled from last month. While the large amount of year-to-year variability in global temperatures seen in the above plot makes it difficult to provide meaningful statements about long-term temperature trends in the context of global warming, the running 25-month average suggests there has been no net warming in the last 11 years or so.”
>>It suggests the gulf stream has little effect on UK weather.
>> http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/forget-about-the-gulf-stream-britain-is-really-kept-warm-in-winter-by-the-rocky-mountains-597214.html
Whatever normally causes the high-latitude upper jetstreams to ‘wave’ or ‘meander’ (N-S sinusoidal oscillation), they are not doing it over Europe this winter. They are all running W-E along the Med, so there are no low pressure systems dragging warm air from the south west up over the UK.
Which is why we are all ffreezing.
.
.
You provided the link to the Guardian’s story about the tough go that Peruvian mountain people are having this winter, but you may have failed to notice that the article points the finger at global warming as the primary suspect possibly causing the “increasingly cold conditions in their own microclimate, which may have been altered by the rapid melting of the glaciers.”
I think that needs to be directed to your “weather is not climate” department for a pending WUWT post. There are other points in the article to elaborate upon: lack of citation; putting “changing weather” ahead of other problems like “lack of basic health services”; failure of Copenhagen cited as “death warrant for hundreds of thousands” (might be good to point out that anti-development treaties such as the draft text of Copenhagen would have IMO certainly helped to prolong and propagate poverty).
To put it in perspective, today something like 1.6 billion people have no electricity, 1 billion have inadequate water access, 2.6 billion lack basic sanitation, 2.5 billion use biomass to cook, etc. These are the things associated with the deaths of millions of people each year RIGHT NOW, most of them children. Could their eyes be further off the ball?
In case you do run with this story, I have some headline options for you:
“Peruvian Hypothermia Explained by Thermal Hype”
“Deadly Cold Peru Winter in Peru Linked to Global Warming”
“Bitter Andes-truction Caused by AGW”
Ireland, which normally has a very temperate climate (cold and damp in winter, warmer and slightly less damp in summer, but rarely snow or heatwaves), has been suffering from it’s longest cold spell in at least thirty years.
Investment tip. Long cereals and rice, short carbon futures.
>>And our governments are making it a lot harder ……. to keep warm
Especially if they want us to keep warm with Wind Power (is that an oxymoron??)
These are the wind speeds over the Irish Sea last week, where many of the UKs windelecs are sited.
http://coastobs.pol.ac.uk/cobs/met/hilbre/getimage.php?code=5&span=2
Anything less than 5kts is not producing power. In other words, the UK would have been in the dark and in the cold all last week, had we relied on Don Quixote’s windelecs.
.
OK, weather is not climate (WINC), but many a mickle makes a muckle (MAMMAM).
When will we see a tipping point in the state controlled media? Some might bet that reality will eventually penetrate to the alphabet networks, while others expect only the sound of silence.
Skeptics should try to recapture scientific societies such as the ACS or the APS. The Petition Project has collected more than 31K signatures, which means that there are troops waiting for a call to arms.
I live and work in Hampshire, England. Snow has fallen more or less continuously since last evening, and it lies on the ground more or less 40cm high. My boss, who’s lived in this area for over 30 years, said he’s never seen anything like it around here before.
Yes, “weather is not climate” etc, but it would be nice if The Independent and others would remember that the next time they attribute any heat wave, flood, etc to climate change (I know they’ll go on doing it).
It’s all those huge fans on the hill tops that are causing the problems. Turn ’em off, quick!