Mayon – Shades of Pinatubo
Here’s a recent AP report and bulletin from local authorities. Meanwhile, fools rush in as 2400 tourists a day flock to the area.
From the Philippine institute of Volcanologyand Seismology
30 December 2009 7:00 AM
For the past 24 hours, one ash explosion occurred at Mayon Volcano (13.2576 N, 123.6856 E). The explosion produced a dirty white ash column that rose to about 100 meters above the summit and drifted to the northwest. Lava continued to flow down along the Bonga-Buyuan, Miisi and Lidong gullies. The lava front has now reached about 5.9 kilometers from the summit along the Bonga-Buyuan gully.
Mayon Volcano’s seismic network recorded 16 volcanic earthquakes. A total of 150 rock fall events related to the detachment of lava fragments at the volcano’s upper slopes was also detected by the seismic network. Yesterday’s measurement of Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) emission rate yielded an average value of 4,397 tonnes per day (t/d). The volcano edifice remains inflated as indicated by the electronic tilt meter installed at the northeast sector of the volcano.
The status of Mayon Volcano is maintained at Alert Level 4. PHIVOLCS-DOST reiterates that the Extended Danger Zone (EDZ) from the summit of 8-km on the southern sector of the volcano and 7-km on the northern sector should be free from human activity. Areas just outside of this EDZ should prepare for evacuation in the event hazardous eruptions intensify. Active river channels and those perennially identified as lahar prone in the southern sector should also be avoided especially during bad weather conditions or when there is heavy and prolonged rainfall. In addition, Civil Aviation Authorities must advise pilots to avoid flying close to the volcano’s summit as ejected ash and volcanic fragments from sudden explosions may pose hazards to aircrafts. PHIVOLCS–DOST is closely monitoring Mayon Volcano’s activity and any new significant development will be immediately posted to all concerned.
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Who considers an exploding volcano a “viewing opportunity”?
“Up close and personal” can get you dead, guys.
No doubt a result of AGW~
OMG! at the satellite picture. That volcano looks like a ripe zit on the face of the earth ready to blow. I hope the local populace take note and evacuate before the event.
Considering the bigger picture- with a quiet sun, -ve AMO and -ve AO, a big volcanic eruption could flip the earths climate into protracted cooling. The final straw that broke the AGW back.
Darwinian theory at work.Do not leave the shallow end of the Gene Pool…
My Ex-Brother in law was on the south side of St. Helens when it blew.Tried to
tell him to stay away that this wasn’t a movie production.I was flying around that thing for USGS and Army Corps. I wasn’t happy,either.Glad I was flying a Hottrod Twin Cessna.Oh the BIL-he managed to escape-barely-had his wife and kids,too…
That one will suddenly cool off this hot spot:
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif
If this blows, how big would it be? If it is big, could it have an impact on temperatures?
I don’t think I like this. If there is a major eruption and the earth cools down as a result, the AGW cultists and fraudsters will blame the volcano for the cooling that would have occured regardless. Oh well.
This is going to make it extremely difficult for The Philippines to meet their CO2 emissions targets. However, the cooling effect of the sulfate emissions might make this winter even colder.
@ur momisugly mojo (11:53:12) :
You don’t need to get close to them to be in danger from them. I was stationed at Subic Bay when Pinatubo erupted. Subic Bay was 25 miles away and deemed to be “safe” from any eruption. Wish the USGS and PhilVolics had told Mother Nature. Just When the main eruption occured a Typhon came onshore and the counter clockwise winds took the hot dry ash from the erupting volcano and dumped heavy wet ash on the base. The stuff was up to 2 ft deep in places, buildings collapsed and people killed.
http://www.subicbaypi.com/sub_desbase009.htm
Luckily Mayon doesn’t historicly erupt like Pinatubo does, ie blow up. Now what will be interesting and will put everyone in the hurt locker is the Yellowstone Super Volcano that is due for one of its historic eruptions. It goes pop usually every 600,000 years and its been 640,000 since the last eruption. In 2006 the USGS have seen two warning signs that Yellowstone might be heading towards eruption:
1. Major increase in the number and intensity of earth quakes.
2. Ground upswelling in the Crater. The ground has swelled over a foot since 2006 sowing magma rising up from the hotspot to the magma chamber beneath Yellowstone.
Well again, Al Gore says Tsunami’s are caused by anthropogenic global warming so if they are caused by earthquakes and underwater landslips then it follows that earhquakes and volcanic eruptions must also be caused by CO2.
The problem is that if this volcano does go bang that any cooling that occurs (including the last week or so of pre-emptive cooling) will all be attributed to volcanic action and not to solar activity etc.
How to observe an erupting volcano:
Step 1: Identify volcano about to erupt
Step 2: set up cameras looking toward volcano
Step 3: FLEE
Step 4: watch from a distance.
JonesII (12:04:58) :
“That one will suddenly cool off this hot spot:
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif”
You may like to occasionally take a look up this one.
http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/SatelliteLoop/world_None_anim.gif
Is there any correlation between Solar minima & volcanic activity?
I seem to recall Leif saying that the Maunder & Dalton minima were times of high volcanic activity is why I ask.
DaveE.
Will our climate alarmists be able adjust all appropriate temperature measurements to preserve the hockey stick and hide the decline?
How will they ever eliminate the contribution of mother nature so they can highlight Mann-made climate change?
How long before the predictions of acid rain and volcanic winter?
If Mayon blows, it will be a Mann-caused catastrophe. Somebody call homeland security.
John (12:00:04)
The “zit” reference was gross, but that volcano indeed looks like a teenager’s worst nightmare. If history is any judge, that dude’s gonna blow at some point. But when? And how bad will it be? Volcanos are a lot like climate: they’re fickle and complex with many factors involved, both known and unknown. Funny how volcanos can effect climate upon the earth: one complex system complicating the complexities of another highly complex system. (Sorry, I couldn’t help it. But I meant it!)
I just wonder how much more CO2 we will be told to save to compensate for the output from this volcano?
Re your heading… it’s Philippines not Phillipines.
[Thanks, fixed. ~dbs, mod]
If this puppy turns into a Pinatubo, we could be in a world of hurt food wise next year. Policies put in place since 1996 have converted the USA to “just in time” in regards to the food supply with the production of grains lower than consumption for the past eight years (2000-2007). Storing grain surplus has become out of fashion and much of the surplus was converted to bio-fuel. As of 2008 the USDA had no stores left.
“International grain supplies are the tightest in three decades, and prices of wheat, corn, rice and other food staples have doubled or tripled…
The whole world has gotten fairly sanguine about food supplies,” says Bruce Babcock, director of the Center for Agricultural and Rural Development at Iowa State University. “Advances in logistics and just-in-time production have allowed the world to get by on very low stock levels for a very long time. We kind of undershot it this year [2008]….
Total U.S. wheat stocks are down from 777 million bushels in 2001, and are the lowest since World War II. The USDA says that’s about a 35-day supply of wheat and notes that farmers in Texas are already starting to harvest a new crop. The American Bakers Association estimates the country has a 24-day supply of wheat compared with the previous three-month level on hand.” http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/food/2008-05-01-usda-food-supply_N.htm
Ag Professional discusses the changes in USDA policy that has resulted in the decrease in stock levels of grains.
http://agprofessional.com/show_story.php?id=51716
“At the risk of sounding like Johnny One Note, we would suggest that the pressure for governments to institute trade embargos, would be much less if they were willing to hold reserve stocks to even out supplies in the event of a production shortfall and/or a sudden increase in demand. Adequate supplies would reduce the likelihood of food riots that have the potential to topple governments.
When the 1996 farm bill was passed, we were told that times had changed and governments no longer needed to hold reserves of storable commodities like wheat, rice, corn and soybeans. It was argued that commercial enterprises, in their quests for profits, would provide that function if there were a need for reserves.
We now read that over seven of the past eight years (2000-2007) the production of grains has been lower than the consumption. These years include the 2000 and 2001 crop years when prices were extremely low and U.S. farmers were collecting emergency and marketing loan payments. We were told that the prices in those years were low because farmers were overproducing.
The U.S. virtually eliminated government-held stocks under the provisions of the 1996 act. With consumption exceeding production, stock levels for grains fell by more than 200 million tonnes since 2000….”
This is a problem seen this year due to delayed harvest of corn because of rain according to the Iowa State University Extension Service.
“The corn harvest is later than it has been any time in recent memory, and the prolonged moist conditions are conducive for molds to develop on grain in the field. Over the past few days we have received numerous reports of ear rots developing in the field and questions concerning mycotoxin production when conditions are cool but wet.”
http://www.extension.iastate.edu/worth/news/delayedharvest.htm
Fall is supposed to be clear, bright and sunny. Yesterday I lot a boot in the mud and today the mud/muck/water had turned to solid ice. I have never seen it this bad. (Central North Carolina USA)
If this is a big eruption the warmists will blame it for the cooling.
Where are all these mighty eco-warriors? Why aren’t they at the base of it protesting the catastrophic release of carbon emissions?
Nope, instead they are busy terrorizing the kiddies with the imminent death of everything if their parents don’t use curly light bulbs.
After we have decisively destroyed the CAGW myth, can we sue Greenpeace et al for intentional infliction of psychological trauma?
Are people really this stupid?
The Mayon volcano has a track record of generatind nuées ardentes during its rather violent eruptions. These are very bad things. They are the worst form of pyroclastic flows. They are fast moving clouds of extremely hot vapor and volcanic aerosols that travel at more than 100 mph. In 1902 a nuées ardentes destroyed the city of St. Pierre on Martinique when Mt. Pelee erupted. St. Pierre was four miles away from the volcano…
Ah, good! Now the warmers will finally have something to blame the lower temperatures on.
If it even lets off so much as a single flutter-blast or a treblo, Warmist willies will blame the next 350 years of cooling on the volcano.
John – {q} Considering the bigger picture- with a quiet sun, -ve AMO and -ve AO, a big volcanic eruption could flip the earths climate into protracted cooling. The final straw that broke the AGW back. {EQ}
The pro AGW’s do not state that natural variability cannot, for a time, overcome the relentless march of increased energy entrapment. There claim, as far as I understand, is that there will be periods of cooling or stagnant temp rise, but over a long period of time, it will average to higher then what should be natural.
Therefore the “Pudding Proof”, will be when we come out of this latest cooling trend, if the average temp jumps (and quickly relatively speaking) more then what should be expected.
mojo asks: “Who considers an exploding volcano a “viewing opportunity”?”
I can understand the appeal.
Easily the most amazing thing I’ve ever seen is lava gushing into the ocean at night on the big island (Hawaii). The ground shaking under my feet, the roar of the rock, the smell of sulphur, the nearly unbearable heat (basically we got as close as the heat would allow), the orange light bathing everything including the huge billowing clouds of steam.