Richard North from the EU Referendum writes of a curious juxtaposition of forecasts, then and now. I thought it worth sharing here since it highlights the chutzpah with which CRU botched their forecast in March of 2000. At least they didn’t claim that UK snowfall was in a “death spiral”.
From The Independent on 20 March 2000 we got the headline: “Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past”. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.
Then, from the Telegraph online today we get: “Snow and ice to hit Britain at New Year.”
The mercury is set to drop to 28°F (-3°C) in most of England and Wales on Thursday night, New Year’s Eve, and 17°F (-8°C) in Scotland, with widespread snow showers also predicted. New Year’s Day will also be chilly, with the northern half of Britain’s struggling to get above freezing during the day, while London will do well to reach 39°F (4°C)
The forecast follows a spell of snow, sleet and ice which has gripped Britain for more than a week but relented in most parts over recent days.
It is so good to see in The Independent that the CRU is living up to its justly acquired reputation for accuracy.
I’ll also point out that this “very rare and exciting event” happened in London last year also.
Snow blankets London for Global Warming debate – first October Snow in over 70 years
Above: London 10/29/2008
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They should have forecast a decline in cold deaths, but the little that are known are significant: http://ecotretas.blogspot.com/2009/12/december-2009-cold-death-toll.html
And if one talks about excess winter mortality in the UK, it even gets worse: last year was the one with the biggest excess winter mortality in the last 9 years. Let’s see what will happen this year: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=574
Ecotretas
Yep, Winter ice to be replaced by Summer ice 😉
DaveE.
In keeping with the logic on display in the CRU files, the obvious conclusion is that there is something wrong with your measured snow data. When measured data and climate model projections disagree, the most likely suspect is the data. In fact, the ONLY suspect is the measured data because the science of the model is “settled”. Your snow data clearly needs to be “adjusted” and the boys and girls at the CRU are just the folks trained to do it.
CH
Even though it has only been ten years since the Independent article was written we see some of the same lines being used again today. “Eight of the 10 hottest years on record occurred in the Nineties.” Sound familiar? Except now they talk about the Noughties!
Those people are nothing if they aren’t consistent. They just keep repeating the same old line only changing the dates to make it seem more relevant.
I think I’ll see if I can find out whether or not the Fenland Indoor Speed Skating Club have had any outdoor meets lately. Somehow I figure that they may be some of the people who are really enjoying this latest blast of global warming!
Met Office Press Release 25 February 2009
Coldest winter for a decade
Mild weather is expected to see out what remains of winter. Despite this, it is expected to be the coldest UK winter since 1995/96, according to provisional Met Office figures.
……………….
Peter Stott, Climate Scientist at the Met Office, said: “Despite the cold winter this year, the trend to milder and wetter winters is expected to continue, with snow and frost becoming less of a feature in the future.
One of the IPCC 2001 reports told under ‘Global Climate Projections’:
“Cold episodes are projected to decrease significantly in a future warmer climate. ”
and also:
“It is very likely that heat waves will be more intense, more frequent and longer lasting in a future warmer climate.”
Next weekend, another special heat wave will hit the East Coast.
Ecotretas (00:12:09) :
That is not a controlled study. There will probably be more cold related deaths this winter just based on the economy, not the weather.
Man, we have to refocus our energy.
Snow or no snow for today is weather. Snow or no snow over a period of years is weather pattern variability. The fact that London is not known as the Aspen of Britain is called climate. Whether it is two degrees warmer or colder in London’s climate, will not turn it into the Sahara Desert or Aspen.
Such knicker twisting!
Met Office
Helping you meet climate change head on
18 June 2009
UK Climate Projections New climate projections underline the need to prepare the UK for a warmer future and to take action now to limit the severity of change, Environment Secretary Hilary Benn announced today.
The UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) confirm that the UK is likely to see hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters coupled with more frequent extreme weather such as flooding, heatwaves and droughts.
Yes, it’s been cold in the UK for a few weeks, but here in my part at least we’ve seen very little snow. We have had a freezing rain event of some note (for us) but this winter is far from some white Armageddon.
I think Dr Viner and the article is (like all the science) broadly right. Over time snow will be seen as being more and more exceptional – for weather enthusiasts in the UK this spell of weather this is indeed an exciting and unusual event, pointing out that reality. Of course it wil still snow in the mountains, and Scotland but in lowland England much less so.
Piers Corbyn is the only one to get it right. No model on a super computer, just physics and common-sense.
Save millions: scrap the Met Office, Hadley Centre and CRU.
Almost Certainly – What does that mean?
Met Office
5 March 2008
A significant drop in global average temperature in January 2008 has led to speculation that the Earth is experiencing a period of sustained cooling.
A brief look at the graph depicting January global average temperatures reveals large variability in our climate year-on-year, but with an underlying rise over the longer term almost certainly caused by man-made emissions of greenhouse gases.
The fact is we can’t explain the amount of snow that we’re reciveing. And it’s a travasty that we can’t…
Pamela Gray (00:42:55) :
Thumbs up for you Pamela.
I predict that the CRU will loose more and more of its credibility.
It will become a very rare and exciting event when the CRU’s predictions will actually come true.
There is something odd about Met Office-CRU files (recently released); most of UK records for the most of locations are truncated. I looked through many of them, only one with continuous record from pre 1900 to date is Lerwick in Shetland Islands. Places like Oxford, Cambridge, Royal Obs. Edinburgh, York, Plymouth etc have incomplete records.
In some files complete records 2000-2009 have been obliterated by -99.
Oh, come on! Dr. Viner also said “Heavy snow will return occasionally”.
So, literally, – at the end – he said something about the frequency of snowfall in GB. I guess we have to wait for next year or somme more years to falsify him.
@ur momisugly Ecotretas:
“… but when it does we will be unprepared.” is the continuation of the above cited sentence. So – what does the death toll tell us?
I don’t recall where I saw the cartoon, but I’m sure UK residents will identify with the illustration of those stuck in traffic due to heavy snow. The caption a simple pep rally cheer of: What do we want? – Global warming – when do we want it? – NOW!!!
Peter Hearnden (00:45:04) :
In a word. Codswallop!
I’m not old enough to remember personally but I know enough older folk that do remember the ’30s & ’40s to know that a similar pattern was followed then.
These older folk remark on the similarity of the last 15 or so years to those times & that the current weather seems to mark the cooling of the late ’40s.
I believe their anecdotal evidence more than the mannipulated data from CRU.
Changed my nick to find if it’s that or my email that’s flagged by the spam-filter.
DaveE
We have a number of joke organisations and businesses over here in England, and the Independent newspaper is one of them – complete rubbish.
somebody please dig up Monbiot crying the end of Winters when he spotted some flowers in February in 2005 or so
Why do you think that Anthony keeps posting G. P. Bear goes to Washington? Can he not tell by the lack of comments that nobody is interested? That and the river thing post kind of tells me that some people may get posted if their donations are sufficient enough. Just saying.
Reply: That is one of the silliest suggestions I have ever heard and you should be embarrassed for having made it. ~ charles the moderator.
Oldgifford, except that since 1979 we HAVEN’T seen hotter, drier summers and wetter winters! We’ve seen the REVERSE! http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/science/monitoring/CR_data/Monthly/EWP_seasonal1.gif It doesn’t matter how many times Stott says it, his own data shows he’s wrong.
“this “very rare and exciting event” happened in London last year also.”
As well as earlier this year in February
“South-east England has the worst snow it has seen for 18 years…”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7864395.stm
Pics:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_pictures/7864521.stm
oldgifford (00:48:12) :
“Almost Certainly – What does that mean?”
Means absolutely nothing. Just weasel words like could, possible, perhaps…etc.
The sort of thing one tends to say when one doesn’t have a clue – probably.