And here’s the stagecraft coming.
Here’s how the rest of it might go down.
By William M. Briggs Source: courtesy of Pajamas Media
First, some good news.
A lefty organization sent me an indignant press release stating that the Danish police have “aggressed on protesters outside the Bella Center.” By this, they mean that the agitants, who moments before were shouting “Push the police away!,” were physically held back from entering an already crowded room.
It is true that it is depressing to see the heretofore useful word aggression turned into another mouth-numbing verb. But it’s heartening to hear that a group of professional whiners were told “No.” True to form, when turned away the perpetually petulant started screaming “Rights! [1],” by which they mean, as they always do, “My desires, not yours.”
And can it be a coincidence that we now hear from Russia — the land where the Climategate emails were first posted — accusations that the Hadley Climate Research Unit fiddled Siberian temperature data [2]? The charge is that scientists only considered stations which showed warming, and tossed those which did not fit their preconceptions.
What makes this delicious is that the stations Hadley chose had large chunks of missing data, and the stations ignored had uninterrupted records. This makes sense: it’s easier to homogenize [3] data that isn’t there. The explanations to come will no doubt provide for some light comedy.
The best news of all are the rumors that “progress has been halting [4]” in Copenhagen. The word stalemate is showing up with increasing frequency in news reports.
Government ministers can’t agree on the best way to take money from their own citizens, give it to an opaque, above-the-law organization, and yet still control it; because, of course, with all that money comes power. Negotiators are skittish about how they can ensure that the money pledged will actually be paid into the pot, and if it does, who gets to dole out the funds. Everybody wants a piece of it, but nobody trusts anybody.
However, I believe this is only a spate of temporary sanity.
The forces of darkness will realize that some deal is better than no deal. Lord Monckton, on a guest appearance on the Glenn Beck program a month ago, had it right. He predicted the early stalemate, but said it would end at the last possible minute, after an all-hours marathon session:
From which the bureaucrats would emerge, their ties over their heads, where they will announce, “We’ve done it. We’ve come to an agreement.”
My money is on Viscount Monckton. The Russian revelations about data manipulation, like the rest of the Climategate story, will be resolutely ignored by negotiators. Some kind of real-money deal will emerge. There’s too much momentum and too much vanity on the line. The One himself will even appear on the icy slopes of Denmark. You simply cannot have so many celebrities and political will in one place, and expect them to concede defeat. It is just not in their nature.
But that’s an easy prediction. What about what comes after?
First, the greeny groups will smell blood in the water. They will use the Copenhagen deal, here in the U.S., to claim that cap and trade must be passed. They will say: “The world agrees something has to be done!” Weak-minded politicians — of which there is never a shortage — will find this argument convincing. Still, the best the greens will do this year will be a publicly stated “commitment” to “tackle the issue,” right after the new year, after the left secures its health care power grab. “You’re right, it’s devilishly important” will assuage some greenies, and will quiet them enough so that the Democrats can mount some sort of campaign counterattack in 2010.
Democrats know they’re going to lose a good chunk of seats by passing health care — they don’t want to start a riot by tacking on another tax so soon afterwards. They will wait to see if they lose their filibuster-proof majority. If so, they will be able to blame the failure of cap-and-trade legislation on “uncaring, denialist” Republicans.
Meanwhile, back at the UN, it will be broad smiles and CO2-emitting champagne toasts. “To humanity!” they will cry, but as they place their glasses on the salvers, not a few of them will twist their mustaches and think to themselves: “Money!”
Of which, it will be gradually revealed, some will have gone missing.
Shock! Horror! Who could possibly have known! It will, of course, have gone to brothers-in-law in various countries. Most organizations receiving our coerced largess will turn out to be “green consultancies,” of the kind that spend a ton of money (by hiring cousins and other familia) but produce nothing.
After a decade of global temperatures stubbornly refusing to play nice, and things turning out to be not nearly as bad as predicted, the Copenhagen-created program will not die.
No government created entity ever kicks off simply because it isn’t needed.
It will morph into an ossified, entrenched behemoth whose mission will, through time, quietly morph into “environmental justice.” Climate change, the original impetus, will have been long forgotten.
Place your bets now.
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Leaked UN report shows cuts offered at Copenhagen would lead to 3C rise.
The emissions cuts offered so far at the Copenhagen climate change summit would still lead to global temperatures rising by an average of 3C, according to a confidential UN analysis obtained by the Guardian.
See
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/dec/17/un-leaked-report-copenhagen-3c
First of all, the money doesn’t start flowing immediately. Second, I’m not so sure much will come out of Copenhagen. Third, you are too optimistic that cap-and-trade will pass Congress. I think you are not entirely convinced of the body of information that you have been covering and that your outlook shows a sign of unnecesssary pessimistic resignation. A successful fight is just beginning…buck it up, my man.
“No government created entity ever kicks off simply because it isn’t needed.” That summarizes my thoughts.
Sorry I don’t bet against a certainty
You missed one thing, the smug little papers writen by historian 20-30 years from now wondering how the world got that stupid?
‘It will morph into an ossified, entrenched behemoth whose mission will, through time, quietly morph into “environmental justice.” Climate change, the original impetus, will have been long forgotten’
Totally agree with this statement just as, no matter how much we complain, the science no longer matters. It’s gone beyond facts and figures and evolved into a movement. Was it Tony Blair who recently said that it doesn’t matter if the science is right or wrong anymore.
I am still in total disbelief that in a modern society that democracy can be so massively abused. Then again even though the new world elite may think that they are all powerfull I still think that nature has a few tricks left. With the suns influence at a modern minimum and a couple of volcanoes clearing their throats I am more than happy to receive a few pairs of thick socks this christmas.
The words “Redistribution of Wealth” is meaningless to me. It’s a divisive issue used and implanted within your minds weather it happens or not, in order to keep you divided from others by having you simply thinking about those words, so they repeat them over and over again.
A natural redistribution of wealth would occur if everyone simply had to play by the same rules and those rules were enforced.
The best rule book I have ever come across in my lifetime is called “The US Constitution”.
Those rules are no longer enforced and different rules are made up for different people or groups of people as we go along. Sort of like Calvinball.
im with mauibrad on this they can pledge all the money in the world, but just like kyoto it will be a meaningless gesture. the regressive wing of the democrat party has made the rest of the party walk the plank too many times on unpopular legislation. 2010 elections are gonna be a bloodbath. im feeling better about our chances of defeating these people all the time.
I will not debate as to what level of Tyrant I am willing to accept!
Typo fix,
I will not debate as to what level of Tyranny I am willing to accept!
My first move away from the left came in the late sixties, when I was about nineteen at Sydney Uni. The crippled Governor of NSW, Roden Cutler, was inspecting a small troop of cadets on the main lawn of campus. The rad students approached and began to jostle both cadets and governor. The governor continued to hobble down the line of cadets, who remained at attention.
Finally, a small number of engineering students formed a cordon and protected Sir Roden. Didn’t take many engineers to hold back that mob. I’m ashamed to say I stood back and merely observed. But it got me thinking.
Needless to say, like the Copenhagen agitators, the radical students saw themselves as victims in this exchange.
(Incidentally, Sir Roden Cutler lost his leg in the process of winning the Victoria Cross. The story of his daring in Syria is worth a movie.)
At some point China will get sick of lending money to the US to squander. It will be interesting to see how much of the madness survives when there’s no money left.
It’s a total reality disconnect. No melting ice-caps, no sea level rise, no warming for ten years, minus 4 in Copenhagen. Hey, perhaps their beloved ‘Mother Nature’ is trying to send a message to the greens.
An interesting piece and the predictions are pretty accurate I’m afraid. Still I hate the political dividing in it. If we are to fight the climate alarmism we have to keep on pumping reason and logic in the debate. It is too late for Copenhagen but if we are right, time is on our site. I see everywhere around me that people begin to question the unhealthy alliance between science and politics on both sides of the political line. The raw data that Nature provides will do the rest, so we can keep the debate clean of the health care system or the saving of the capitalistic system by means of taxpayers money
Yep, sounds like a fairly good estimation of what will happen!
I think I wrote somewhere on this blog before…..It’s like a soap opera…..you can tell what the plot line is going to be for the next however long just by watching ten minutes of one episode…
I wish so much that the script writers would put a “twist” or two in the script, but i think we all know that politicians could never be creative enough for that!
That’s why they’re sooooooo predictable
heh….
Um, the word “aggress” has been a verb for a very long time, I’m sorry to have to say.
Looks like sea ice extent is back to 2004 levels. bet that does not get a mention at COP or in the negotiations!
‘Leaked UN report shows cuts offered at Copenhagen would lead to 3C rise.’
Ha!!
That’s funny……’leaked’ uh huh!
Ten to twenty years from now, when the papers are “discussing” the upcoming ice age (as they did 40 and 100 years ago) the same gov entities will be pumping out two things: 1) proofing that the next ice age is coming, and 2) denials that they even said global warming was really happening. Just like they did regarding the last “impending ice-age.”
The media will uncritically accept their assertions, as will the greenies. We skeptics will still be, well, you know the drill.
Unless, of course, we keep our energy going and keep some light of reality shining through.
O/T BBC schyzophrenia:
News report:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/8416010.stm
Weather forecast:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/8?&search=london&itemsPerPage=10®ion=uk
O/T. I live about four miles from UEA-CRU. This morning we all awoke to a heavy fall of snow and no electricity. Much of South-East England is in the same state. It is not uncommon to get the odd flurry at this time of year but this amount of snow, pre- Christmas is beyond my recall. Oh, I forgot, 2009 is one of the hottest years ever, I must be imagining it. How I explain to my miserable hens that they are too I can’t quite fathom at the moment.
the job for the beauracrats is to right something the politicians can hold up to justify the waste of resources time and egos that have gone into the process.
To admit the whole thing is a waste of time and money would be unacceptable in the electorate, given the bias of the MSM.
So Monkton is probably right a document with high sounding principals will be agreed to, but as usual the the fine print will have all sorts of weasle words which will later allow the politicians to sidestep from any undertakings made.
I’m hopeful that like all enormo gestures – Copenhagen will go precisely nowhere.
Hot air, some more green millionaires and then the bubble will burst a la dotcom mirage.
I wonder how much of the recently agreed one trillion plus dollar stimulus money will be frittered away by the new socialist regime headed by obama?
All that borrowed money, money that was supposed to stimulate the US economy will be utterly wasted on third world greedy despots and their love of the good life, it will be a running joke from now on that when it rains in some third world cesspit the despots will demand more cash and when it doesnt rain they will demand more cash, they will be able to allow the ruination of their nations and blame it all on global warming and the best part is the Copenhagen freak show will actively encourage and handsomely reward bad third world governance.
Third world despots will be encouraged to starve their own people which they then blame on global warming and hey presto the money for new private jets,Swiss bank accounts,new mercs and beemers wil rain on them.
This is the new deal that is supposed to save the world? Trillions of borrowed dollars that should be spent on the very people who will have to pay off the debt is being used to drag the world into a new dark age of corruption. The very poor uneducated third world poor that the freak show cultists promise to ‘help’ are the ones that are going to suffer the most and all the while the rich get richer.
The wealth redistribution is going to make the rich richer and the powerful even more powerful and the ordinary masses are going to pay for it all.
In the UK, all our main political parties have bought into the EU superstate and the climate change scam.
We have in effect got a ‘Quisling’ parliament and Government running the UK on behalf of the EU.
On the back of a massive economic downturn and the collapse in trust of our politicians,the coming general election could see great gains for the more extreme political parties.
50% of our people don’t believe in AGW,and that is before the pain of carbon cuts and taxes kick in.
You Americans are lucky that gun ownership is a right.
Trust me.
“If so, they will be able to blame the failure of cap-and-trade legislation on “uncaring, denialist” Republicans.”
Shouldn’t that read…
“…will be able to _continue_ blaming “uncaring, denialist” Republicans”?
Peaking into the sausage factory all these years, that’s pretty much been the story. It’s always those “damn, dirty republican apes!” (because they’re in bed with big oil, you know) even though, at least in my state, republicans are of the mind that we should “do something” just as much democrats are. Both sides voted down cap and trade, but they clung to the perception of thier super-human powers (which is, of course, that super-heroic ability to instantaneously suck away massive amounts of purchasing power…)