I knew the moment I pressed the publish button yesterday, that Bob Tisdale would have something useful to add to this discussion on El Niño and influenza. He didn’t disappoint us. – Anthony
Guest post by Bob Tisdale
The Texas A&M press release in the WattsUpWithThat post “Possible Linkage between the 1918 El Niño and the 1918 flu pandemic ?” stated that “some researchers” continued to believe that global warming was causing stronger El Niño events. Link to press release:
http://dmc-news.tamu.edu/templates/?a=8028&z=15
Quote from it: “Giese adds, ‘The most commonly used indicator of El Niño is the ocean temperature anomaly in the central Pacific Ocean. By that standard, the 1918-19 El Niño is as strong as the events in 1982-83 and 1997-98, considered to be two of the strongest events on record, causing some researchers to conclude that El Niño has been getting stronger because of global warming. Since the 1918-19 El Niño occurred before significant warming from greenhouse gasses, it makes it difficult to argue that El Niños have been getting stronger.”
HOWEVER
Not to discount the work by Giese et al: a quick look at a graph of NINO3.4 SST anomalies that includes the 30 years before 1900, Figure 1, reveals that there were two comparably sized “Super” El Nino events in 1877/78 and 1888/89.
http://i25.tinypic.com/259v9si.png
Figure 1
Link to the preprint version of Giese et al (2009) “The 1918/1919 El Niño”:
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/gilbert.p.compo/Gieseetal2009.pdf
SOURCE
HADISST Anomaly data is available through the KNMI Climate Explorer:
http://climexp.knmi.nl/selectfield_obs.cgi?someone@somewhere
The attempt to link flu with El Nino seems rather silly.
The explanations that have been used so far- high mobility, poor nutrition, virulent flu, seem very adequate.
There were big el ninos in:
1578, 1721, 1828, 1877 – 1878, 1891, 1925 – 1926, 1982 – 1983, 1997 – 1998
http://www.naylamp.dhn.mil.pe/nino/mainFrame.htm
Instead of NOAA graph above it is easier to see anomalies in:
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
And much bigger ninos in the past (around 600 AD), which caused the destruction of the Mochica culture.
Just look at this Mochica fresco representing the sun:
http://www.giurfa.com/theangrysun.jpg
Does the 1918 El Nino show up in SOI?
NO:
http://i23.photobucket.com/albums/b370/gatemaster99/1918soi.png
Oh, forgot, data here:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soihtm1.shtml
Another question: Where is the 3.4 region? I mean, what coordinates did you use? I want to check a few things.
Never mind, figured it out.
And for those who enjoy trends, the linear trend for the HADISST NINO3.4 SST anomalies from Jan 1870 to July 2009 is a whopping 0.17 deg C/Century.
http://i28.tinypic.com/whk4g3.png
But there might be a bias with that lump of erroneous-looking La Nina data from 1870 to 1875.
How do we know sea surface anomalies from the 1800’s? Buckets over a ship’s side?
If so, are those considered accurate?
Naper Boy- someone can correct me, but the Royal Navy has been doing
SST’s-accurately from ships since the 1700’s…
even if the thermometer in the bucket..
On a slightly different bent in the same part of the world. According to Tim Curtin ‘the whole theory of radiative forcing allegedly arising from increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide over time has no validity at pristine locations like Mauna Loa.’
http://jennifermarohasy.com/blog/2009/09/warming-hawaii-part-2-a-note-from-tim-curtin/#more-6377
If he is right, then the games up for alarmist hotheads.
Looking at the graph of ocean temperature, I can’t find any trend up in temperature. It looks mostly like noise.
This is a good link for the SOI
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/indicator_enso.jsp?c=soi&p=weekly
Bob T.,
I interpret Giese’s comment as meaning the data show that El Niños have not gotten stronger. Your graph seems to disagree with the size of the event he references (1918/1919) while still strengthening his comment. I’m somewhat confused by your use of “however” and “Not to discount.”
Do I need to state the obvious?
“Nino = Christ Child,” because these sea temperature events occure around Chistmass time each year.
Until December 25th, there is no such thing as a El Ninos event!
The super El Nino of 1877-78 resulted in the warmest winter on record in the north-central United States:
http://books.google.com/books?id=1vioLQGvvz8C&pg=PA130&lpg=PA130&dq=1877-78+The+Warmest+Winter&source=bl&ots=UlGSAn3Xx9&sig=eYbrCxjDdKWxnLxOZGOv_tYYSrE&hl=en&ei=cGmwSoPRIOC3tweS_umeCA&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=9#v=onepage&q=1877-78%20The%20Warmest%20Winter&f=false
Steve Huntwork (21:30:32) :
Recognizing the historical relationship of these events to the people of coastal Peru is good and folks should read about this if they have not done so. Now that we know more about such events should we change the name or be inclusive of the scale and timeline?
Further, if you make a big deal of this the PC police will insist that the term El Niño be banned. You have already said too much. Chill.
And don’t mention December 25th and J.C. ever again in the same paragraph. “They” may be monitoring you now.
Giggle, and my point was well noted.
I was starting to get rather unconfortable when people were talking about an El Nino event in August and September.
Come December, I will start to pay attention to the sea surface temparatures off the coast of Peru.
For interested parties, the daily SOI just racked up its highest value in nearly 2 months: 17.29
Both 30-day and 90-day avg. SOI values are now above zero as well.
TAO also shows a rather expansive cold pool developing just below the thermocline and heading east.
Looks like this El Nino will end before it ever begins.
hunter (18:24:45) : The attempt to link flu with El Nino seems rather silly.
The explanations that have been used so far- high mobility, poor nutrition, virulent flu, seem very adequate.
Not silly at all. Most flu variations get “brewed up” in Asia where pigs are raised over water that birds (i.e. farmed ducks) live in; all in close proximity to humans. The multiple strains of flu get to swap bits around with each other until something virulent gets put together. Then it hops onto visiting wild birds and migrates with them to the rest of the world.
It is an easy “surmise” that the migration patterns and timing of birds might be modified by El Nino and that might change their tendency to either pick up the new strains nor deliver it to vulnerable populations in sync with the environmental factors that would make them susceptible.
It is also worth noting that malnutrition (ie your stated “nutritional status”) would tend to depend on weather cycles (crop yields) in pre-modern times that also depend on ocean current cycles. It would not take much to have a synchrony between poor crop yields, migration bringing a lot of sick birds to the local pond, and flu outbreaks.
I don’t know if those things do have synergy, but that they might and it ought to be determined; is not at all far fetched.
I mentioned that most seem to forget the second crucial factor in “evolution” besides mutation and that is selection. ‘flus can mutate all they like, it is when a deadly variant is selected by peculiar circumstances, like the Western Front in WW1. No-one seems to have noticed :-). As there are no cirumstances like that presently there is very little chance of a deadly influenza outbreak.
Gentry,
with the IOD neutral, NAO cool, PDO cool and SOI neutral, this El Nino is struggling to get out of bed.
BOM of course is confident, but perhaps just a little concerned.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
John F. Hultquist: You asked, “I’m somewhat confused by your use of ‘however’ and ‘Not to discount.'”
You’re right. Trying to keep the post a short as possible, I failed to include the paragraph in the press release that referenced that they studied the first half of the 20th century.
Thanks Bob – another theory bites the dust. Correlation, cause & effect can soon lead people up the garden path.
“The Christ Child”
There is a nine month gestation period.