Not only does the Met Office/Hadley Climate Center have trouble with pesky “moles” this week, they are now finding a staunch ally, the BBC, is questioning their forecasting ability. One wonders if they will improve using “deep black”, the 1.2 megawatt supercomputer they just purchased.
Met Office cools summer forecast
BBC environment analyst
excerpts:
You will need a brolly on holiday in the UK in August – the Met Office is issuing a revised forecast for more unsettled weather well into the month.
It is a far cry from the “barbecue summer” it predicted back in April.
The news will raise questions about the Met Office’s ability to make reliable seasonal forecasts.
…
It did indeed stress at the time of the summer forecast in April that the odds of a scorching summer were 65%. It explains that it coined the phrase “barbecue summer” to help journalists’ headlines.
But this has come back to bite the organisation because many people do not feel like they have been enjoying a “good” summer, especially compared with previous searing years.
Jet stream
Some now ask if the Met Office risks its reputation by attempting to popularise its work this way.
…
The real problem for the Met Office is that this is the third summer in a row where its forecast has failed. In 2007, the Met Office chirped: “The summer is yet again likely to be warmer than normal. There are no indications of a particularly wet summer.”
We got downpours and floods in the wettest summer for England and Wales since 1912. Temperatures were below average.
In April 2008, the Met Office forecast: “Summer temperatures are likely to be warmer than average and rainfall near or above average.”
That did not prepare people for one of the wettest summers on record with high winds and low sunshine.
In both instances, the Met Office failed to predict the movements of the jet stream – the high-level wind that races round the world 10km above the surface.
…
read the entire article at the BBC here
h/t to WUWT reader Kristinn
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If they keep on making the same prediction they must get it right eventually but it may take a while.
Better get a cache before they pull it down. Or was the the Telegraph in the Gore/Nazi incident? Anyhow, I would cache before you post from now on, just to keep yourself from getting burned again. That was horsestuff.
Even a stopped clock is right twice a day
Maybe the mole is feeding them bad forecasts?
Hey – isn’t Watts a weather forcaster? – anyway yeah – long term forcasts are pretty pointless. The weather channel has these 14 day forcasts up here – totally meaningless – even 5 days is really pushing it.
From the article, & private forecaster, Piers Corbyn :
“He claims his solar-based forecasting method is consistently more accurate for medium-term predictions than the Met Office, and he urges them to give up medium-term forecasting.”
Imagine that, a solar-based forecasting method…..who would of thunk it ???
/sarc off
It does illustrate those with a closed mind on forcing mechanisms (ie – it’s all CO2) will ultimately do nothing to advance the science of forecasting.
Superstition forecasts.
Let’s rename the the portentious entrails reading augurs. Who needs data?
The BBC’s Radio 4 programme, ‘PM’ is also apparently running an item on this too – this week. It airs 17.00 – 18.00 daily.
That’s what they get for public prognostication!
This is the crux of the problem with any institution that ties itself/sells out to a political narrative.
The political narrative comes first, any deviation from the narrative becomes impossible, the narrative must be served and if that means lying and/or manipulating the data then so be it.
A political narrative in the form of global warming becomes a hard wired code in the ‘machine’, the data is put through a computer program devised to churn out ‘evidence’ of global warming(AGW/MMCC) and when the lying begins its almost impossible to stop without a root and branch reform, lying becomes the norm because you have to lie to cover up the original lie and so on.
The met office accepts fully the theory of AGW/MMCC so any evidence of that theory being wrong must lead to a covering up of that evidence, a cycle of self deception perpetuates itself, this was very common in the USSR where the political narrative was supreme regardless of the actual facts and truth, upto the fall of the USSR the party line was followed doggedly, they could not admit the truth and reality.
When will we learn that the actual real world and natural events cannot and never will be made to fit a political narrative, science cannot be made to serve a political master and still remain science, it becomes little better than alchemy or astrology.
What we are seeing is the result of a quasi religious/political doctrine taking precedence over reality, when will we learn that it doesnt work, it didnt work in Maos China and the USSR and it wont work now, yet still the political classes try it.
Lady calls to get a weather prediction from the Met Office
MET Office: Super Duper Climate Center. Can I help you?
Lady: Yes, I’m planning a party and need to know about the weather.
MET: When?
Lady: When? Well, right now.
MET: Well, just looking out the window – now it’s sunny.
Lady: Not now. Later. . .
MET: You said now
Lady: I didn’t mean now
MET: Well then, call back when you need it. ‘click’
Good for the BBC. These forecasts need to be assessed more often whether it’s in the UK, US, or anywhere else. I feel they have little, if any, predictive value, but I haven’t been able to analyze that myself. May have to take a closer look at that this year. Can’t wait for NOAA’s annual winter outlook. Of course, maybe these outlooks are done purely for public consumption, but it would be nice if they were based on something and contained a hint of value.
What’s on the barbecue menu? Spit roasted mole?
I’ll note that Harrabin was one of the worst offenders in peddling alarmist claptrap as science journalism.
A couple of years ago, he jetted around the world writing pieces on rising sea-levels drowning Thai emples, Bangladeshi villages, Pacific islands, etc, with never the suggestion that tectonic processes may have been the cause.
If he is losing faith then the Warming religion is in worse shape than I thought.
More to the point on Piers Corbyn:
“The Met Office complains in response that Mr Corbyn will not publish his “unique” methods of forecasting.”
We can all sympathise with how upset they must be feeling about that.
Hmmmm….this whole Mole thing has to do with the Met not wanting to release their TOP SECRET data……to quote from the end of the BBC article.
“The Met Office complains in response that Mr Corbyn will not publish his “unique” methods of forecasting. ”
Hey Kettle, it’s me the Pot….you’re looking pretty black!
Piers Corbyn is not publicly funded and his predictions are not being used to guide international policies.
It is interesting to note that the alarmist BBC actually includes a mention of Piers Corbyn without piling abuse on him. However, one quote is a classic:
“The Met Office complains in response [to Corbyn’s criticism of their forecasts] that Mr Corbyn will not publish his “unique” methods of forecasting. ”
Gosh, you mean he is refusing to release his algorithms and/or data? Well it’s good to know the Met Office has no problems in that area…
I don’t know how the Met think there’s a chance of them getting the long-range forecast right when they can’t even do a good job with the next day forecast in my area. This is a good example of what happens when you try to predict the behavour of a very dynamic chaotic system using inadequet computer models.
jeez (22:34:51) :
Piers Corbyn is not publicly funded and his predictions are not being used to guide international policies.
I am not sure if you were making a point or simply stating some facts. I would argue that your comments further highlights the hypocrisy of the Met. I trust that was your intent.
Well I got it right for last winter on the basis, primarily, of an assessment based on the obvious fact that the jets were more towards the equator than during the 1975/2000 warming spell.
However one cuts it the fact is that for any specific region by far the greatest influence on weather and climate is the position of that location in relation to the position of the main air circulation systems.
Compared to that factor the observed general average change in global temperatures is not discernible.
Here’s my effort for the coming UK winter:
“I hate trying to predict because everything could change tomorrow but on the basis of the current climate setup here goes:
The jets are still well south of us and if that persists into autumn and winter then of course there will be greater influence from cold high pressure over Europe and Greenland.
The matter of precipitation amounts depends on where the main battleground is between cold and warm air. No two years are the same and last winter was unusual. The cold spells were very immobile. Large chunks of cold air were dumped on us for weeks at a time with little movement and relatively little snow despite a couple of notable falls.
For the coming winter I think that, instead, we will get more occasions when the battleground is over southern UK or northern France and Germany with more snow over wider areas than we have had for many years. However so much depends on day to day variability of the precise positions of all the weather systems that I realise I am a bit out on a limb there. Nevertheless I think it a higher likelihood than for many years past.
I’m also unsure what the balance will be between northerly and easterly flows which give very different weather types. The chance of a return to prolonged south westerlies is low but it could happen depending on the synoptic situation over USA.
Last winter also showed a change from the previous two winters when cold plunges over the USA distorted the jets and gave us persistent warm wet south westerlies so we did not then share in the general slow cooling trend.
I think that the overall global trend is still moving towards a colder regime but only slowly. The position of the jets in both hemispheres still indicates overall cooling. We seem to be getting increasing cold weather reports in winter in both hemispheres despite the current absence of a strong La Nina so the effect of the previous one seems to be persisting.
Meanwhile ENSO is less negative than it was but the anticipated EL Nino seems to be stuttering. I would say that overall the rate of cooling in the air will slow down a bit thanks to the extra energy flow into the air from the less negative ENSO but remember that if the sun is weak it will not fully replace the energy lost from ocean to air via the warmer SSTs so there remains a general background loss of energy for the system as a whole.
So, (gulp!) UK coming winter cooler than recently and likely to further reduce the warming trend of the 1975 to 2000 period. Not necessarily back down to the longer term average but well on the way with an outside chance of a memorable winter.
More snow than we have been used to in the UK but generally drier than average in the north and wetter than average in the south.
A lot could happen to change my opinion but that’s where it stands at the moment
From the BBC article..”the four day forecast is now as good as the one day forecast was 30 years ago”. Any supporting data for that claim?
What would be reasonable expectations when it comes to forecasts (of any length) ?
So they were wrong last winter. Now they are wrong again this summer: perhaps they need a trillion pounds hyper computer to get it wrong again?
I once heard -I don’t know if it is true- that someone did a study about the accuracy of the UK Met Office forecasts by comparing the outcome of the actual forecasts for the previous years with this simpler one: “Tomorrow will be just like today”. It was discovered that the second was much more acurate. I guess we are still in this same situation.
Tomorrow will be just like today will be more accurate elsewhere in the world than the UK, I think that is just hearsay.
On the other hand both the UK medium range forecasting by the Met Office in the UK and also their hurricane forecasting for the Atlantic is, in my opinion poor and as the article states these journalistic phrases they come out with do not help matters.
Their 3-5 day forecasts are not bad at all now though.
Regards
Andy
I forecast before the start of summer that we in the UK would be plagued by high levels of rainfall, gloominess, northern blocking and hence a southerly jet. In direct contrast to the Met Office and there’s only one correct forecast at the moment.
Though I’m starting to worry that my forecast will be correct for August now that the Met Office have agreed with it.
Bizarre irony in the comment from the Met Office about Piers Corbyn not releasing his data. Aren’t we glad they don’t have to worry about their data being secret any more!