Guest post by Steven Goddard
Global warming has predictably struck again.
White said climate change caused by global warming likely is changing ice conditions and adding to the unpredictability.
Kate White is a civil engineer at the Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory in Hanover, N.H., and one of the nation’s leading experts on ice jams.
“I actually think the science around climate change is real. It is potentially devastating. … If you look at the flooding that’s going on right now in North Dakota, and you say to yourself, ‘If you see an increase of 2 degrees, what does that do, in terms of the situation there,’ that indicates the degree to which we have to take this seriously.”
From the Scientific American Blog
River ice generated by global warming in North Dakota
The Red River in Fargo, North Dakota had been expected to crest as high as 43 feet on Saturday, but instead it peaked at less than 41 feet due to freezing springtime temperatures.
The river crested in Fargo at 40.82 feet (12.44 meters) shortly after midnight yesterday, never reaching the 42-foot forecast the weather service expected, which would have put it at the top of some city dikes. The crest broke the record of 40.1 feet set in April 1897.
The river was at 40.27 feet as of 4:15 a.m. local time this morning and was forecast to recede to 38.1 feet as of 1 a.m. on April 5, according to the National Weather Service.
Freezing Temperatures
Temperatures as cold as 7 degrees Fahrenheit froze water running into the river and are responsible for turning back the flood, said David Kellenbenz, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Grand Forks, North Dakota, about 80 miles north of Fargo.
The weather service had said earlier that the Red River could crest as high as 43 feet.
In fact, temperatures in North Dakota have been running about 5-10 degrees below normal for the entire winter and spring.
http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/hprcc/nd/Last3mTDeptHPRCC-ND.png
http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/hprcc/nd/MonthTDeptHPRCC-ND.png
NOAA’s Center for Climate Prediction had incorrectly forecast a warm winter for the region last autumn.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/archives/long_lead/gifs/2008/200810temp.gif
Using AGW logic, it all makes perfect sense. The models forecast a warm winter. The models were wrong, and instead it was extremely cold and snowy. All that late melting snow caused a flood, so the flood must be blamed on the global warming predicted by the models. AGW Commandment #1 : Reality must never take precedence over computer models.
Author’s Note : Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) is now known as “climate change” because the scientists were just kidding when they gave it the original name.
Apparently the party line/’current truth’ has spread pretty quickly.
Pity there’ll be no follow-up question on that statement: …’on the basis of what data do you make pronouncement?’
That’s odd. The predictions of worst-case-scenario of extremely severe flooding were averted by unusually cold temperatures that re-froze upstream water.
The L.A. Times photo caption says it: “River ice generated by global warming in North Dakota”
Help me here . . . ice generated by global warming? Did global warming selectively choose North Dakota to assert its influence? Are abnormal freezing temperatures a good measure of global warming?
Just ridiculous. Models cause warming, especially when scantily clad, but its only a local effect, so it must be weather.
People are crazy
How does a Civil Engineer with an expertise in ice jams know anything about meteorology, climatology, or oceanography???
Last I checked ice accumulation was based on freezing degree days???
I did get to blow up ice jams in the arctic back in the 70’s, didn’t work to well as I recall.
Great work keep it up!!!!
I live in neighboring Montana, and the flooding over in North Dakota is the predictable end of a very nasty winter there. The temperatures in that area, especially the Fargo/Grand Forks region, have been amazingly cold all winter long. They have also received much more snow than normal, I have heard. Rather than “evidence of global climate change”, this winter has been seen around here as more of a return to the tougher winters of the 60’s and 70’s. I have heard a lot of ridicule of Al Gore, too. Oh yeah, it is snowing again, and more is predicted.
I was watching a debate on BBC about Afghanistan, the new US commitment and plan and NATO roles …. and the words “Climate Change” came up several times in addressing the european NATO memebers combat roles.
The assertion was that because Obama was aligned on climate change with the EU that NATO members would commit more resources to Afghanistan to act in combat roles.
Some much for that “Peace Prize” there Al.
Sorry…make that pronouncement…
Newsflash! I just heard on the news that a new storm center is approaching North Dakota, likely to dump even more snow on the already beleaguered residents. That snow and ice, is also predicted to eventually melt, adding yet another catastrophy at the feet of AGW Deniers. But wait, there’s more, Scientist believe that Detroit will suffer a devastating drought this summer culminating in a return of wild fires in the city as Holloween approaches.
I was kidding about one of these;-}
It was true when I was in university 4 decades ago, and its still true today: engineers should never be allowed to speak in public. :)~
“The crest broke the record of 40.1 feet set in April 1897.”
Excuse me but what was the climate like the last time the record was set in 1897? Were we “in the grip of global warming”?
Actually, what has happened this year is related to snow pack and not temperature. That region had been in drought for several years. This winter’s snowfall has eliminated that drought.
So drought is blamed on global warming, and lack of drought is blames on global warming.
I have a suggestion … if you don’t want repeated disasters year after year, move the town away from the river, move the levees back a half mile on each side, allow the river to spread out and slow down. Trying to maintain a city that is for all practical purposes built in the middle of a river bed is dumb and you deserve to get wiped out year after year. We should stop paying to rebuild from “flood disasters”. Move the city out of the flood plain.
Sorry last comment was Off-Topic.
This post is just another in a long line of “Climate Changes causes…” We all knew this was coming, I am waiting for the Volcanic Activity in Alaska Triggered by Climate Change piece that is due out any time now.
There is a down side and that is we will get a double top when the spring melt happens. So this is not over for the year. The next peak may break this new record.
So be ready for those headlines…
There is another aspect of this story that is worth highlighting:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20090328.FLOOD28/TPStory/?query=fargo%20river%20government
[quote]Downriver in Manitoba, authorities have taken some of the guesswork out of the Red equation. Starting with the construction of the Red River Floodway in 1962 – informally named Duff’s Ditch for Premier Duff Roblin – provincial governments have consistently taken a longsighted approach to flood protection. The floodway diverts overflow from the Red around Winnipeg. In 37 years, the floodway has been opened 20 times, saving $10-billion in flood damages, according to government estimates.[/quote]
IOW – even if floods are a result of GW it would be a lot cheaper to build structures like the floodway instead of investing in dubious alternative energy projects that may do nothing to stop the inevitable.
I’ve been following this story a couple of days now. We all knew this statement was coming. LOL
So, let me get this straight. NOAA climate predicts temps above normal. Temps are actually 6-10 below normal and therefore the flooding is due to “global warming”. Ms. White is obviously drinking too much of the free Kool-Aid they’re giving out in New Hampshire. Her “on-the-ground” research is impeccable.
Perhaps Kate White needs to read up on Lake Agassiz.
Ever notice that when a climate critic–I refuse to call them skeptics–points to a cold weather event as contrary evidence of GW, the greens always dismiss it claiming weather is not climate. But when any warm weather event happens like heat waves or melting, the same greens insist it’s proof of GW climate change. Their hypocrisy is astounding.
The title of this post is “North Dakota Floods Aggravated By “Global Warming”” yet the article you quote has 18 paragraphs only ONE of which even mentions global warming, and does not pin the blamer on global warming.
And that merits a post and a series of oh so predictable comments?
Run that by me again will you?
The Leader is good
The Leader is great
We surrender our will
as of this date
White said climate change caused by global warming likely is changing ice conditions and adding to the unpredictability.
Kate White is a civil engineer at the Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory in Hanover, N.H., and one of the nation’s leading experts on ice jams.
I like her solution to problems caused by AGW…..Dynamite!
Steven Goddard
“climate change” Is sooo yesterday. It’s now “climate chaos” dontcha know?
March 29, 2009, non-climatologist Gary in Arkansas has waded into the Global Warming debate with a radical new hypothesis. Gary is a non-scientist and non-meteorologist who has brought some very interesting scientific observations into the fray.
“It’s like this,” says Gary, “everyone is familiar with a compass. There is a needle that spins around and around. We seem to be experiencing a sort of “weather compass” effect, where man-made Global Warming has gotten so bad that the dial has spun all the way around into the colder ranges.” Gary goes on to say that many things in life are similar, like the famous board game Monopoly. If you roll the dice too high – you go past “Go.”
“I have submitted my data to Mr. Al Gore and he found the results quite scientific,” says Gary. “I really just want to get this out to other scientific-minded fellows. I just want to make a name for myself, I mean, I think this global warming thing has gotten way out of hand.
Gary’s hypothesis has scary implications. “Yeah, think about it. It’s obvious to me, by using my models, that the warming has gone on for so long that we’ve moved way beyond simple heating. We’re now into cooling. So even if were to cool the earth using the brave tactics being put forth, we’d actually cool down back into the warming area. I feel the measures being looked at haven’t taken this into account. We need even more stringent measures to reverse what mankind has done.”
[Shoot, y’all, see how easy this science stuff is? Any yahoo can get into it!][WINK]
So now we have the U.S. Army against us? Bring in the Marines!
The actual quote for the LA Times photo is as follows:
“The North Dakota National Guard hauls volunteers by truck through floodwaters in Oxbow. In one Fargo neighborhood, mandatory evacuations were ordered after cracks were found in an earthen levee.”
Anyone curious can follow the link that was included in the caption.
Raven writes “IOW – even if floods are a result of GW it would be a lot cheaper to build structures like the floodway instead of investing in dubious alternative energy projects that may do nothing to stop the inevitable.”
You need to be very careful with this idea. Any sort of floodway increases the flooding downstream. Winnipeg is lucky in that Lake Winnipeg is very close to the outlet of the floodway, so there is not much left of the Red River to flood. If you put a floodway just around, for example, Fargo, heaven help the people immediately downstream.