During our discussion of the preposterous news story from Pravda, claiming this headline: “Earth begins to kill people for changing its climate” a scientist dropped in to provide us some insight into his latest paper. It was highly relevant at the time since one of the repeating themes we see in the mainstream (and not so mainstream) media is the attribution of increasing death due to severe weather events to “global warming”.
But that is not supported by the real data, it is a false premise.
In the paper, Indur Goklany examines the worldwide trends and makes some surprising discoveries base of examining data from the World Health Organization, NOAA, and other sources.
Some have claimed that, all else being equal, climate change will increase the frequency or severity of weather-related extreme events (see, e.g., IPCC 2001; Patz 2004; MacMichael and Woodruff 2004). This study examines whether losses due to such events (as measured by aggregate deaths and death rates2) have increased globally and for the United States in recent decades. It will also attempt to put these deaths and death rates into perspective by comparing them with the overall mortality burden, and briefly discuss what trends in these measures imply about human adaptive capacity.
The most telling graph is the first one in the paper:
Goklany writes:
Despite the recent spate of deadly extreme weather events – such as the 2003 European heat wave and the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons in the USA – aggregate mortality and mortality rates due to extreme weather events are generally lower today than they used to be.
Globally, mortality and mortality rates have declined by 95 percent or more since the 1920s. The largest improvements came from declines in mortality due to droughts and floods, which apparently were responsible for 93 percent of all deaths caused by extreme events during the 20th Century. For windstorms, which, at 6 percent, contributed most of the remaining fatalities, mortality rates are also lower today but there are no clear trends for mortality. Cumulatively, the declines more than compensated for increases due to the 2003 heat wave.
There is also a table of supporting data:
Click for a larger image
There are a number of things that have contributed to this trend of lowered death rates due to extreme weather events that I have identified, here is a short list:
- Better real-time monitoring due to satellite technology and surface networks
- Better forecasting due to increased skill sets and improvements in computer aided forecasting
- Better warning lead times, due to satellites for hurricanes and radar for tornadoes and flash floods
- Better and faster warning dissemination thanks to radio, TV, and Internet
But there is always this recurring complaint that “there are more natural disasters now than 50-100 years ago”. From a perspective rooted in the human experience of the western world, this is likely due to the instant communications we have now. 50 years ago, if there was a massive flood in China, we might not hear about it for days, 100 years ago, perhaps never.
The shrinking world due to instant global communications will ensure that our frequency of such experiences of severe weather will increase. As testament to this, this very blog entry will be read by a few people worldwide within minutes of its posting. Those outside of the USA, please post a comment to illustrate. This is posted at 9:10 PM Pacific time, 4:10 UTC on July 5th.
See more in the paper: Death and Death Rates Due to Extreme Weather Events, Indur Goklany
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Stop bringing up facts. Seriously. Everyone except for oil-funded deniers knows that climate change is destroying our planet.
Read at 12:21pm, Philippine time, on July 6. Not sure what that is in UTC.
I know this isn’t on topic…But I just wanted to say keep up the good work!
I do not know much of science at all, as I am a Military Historian. While I do not know really anything od science I just couldn’t really believe in global warming…Yet at the same time I thought “I am not the expert, they are.”
It is good to know that in reality this doesn’t seem to be a problem at all, but rather it seems to be just natural cycles of the Earth.
Now I guess our next largest hurdle would be Peak Oil..hopefully it all plays out well enough.
Good day to you, sir.
Anthony!
What are we going to do?
If we keep surviving at this rate we’re all doomed!
It’s even read by a few people on the East coast on EDT (GMT-0400)
“But there is always this recurring complaint that “there are more natural disasters now than 50-100 years ago”. From a perspective rooted in the human experience of the western world, this is likely due to the instant communications we have now.”
And that US media has discovered disaster coverage sells. Looks like a long wildfire season in the west this year….
Does Boulder count as “outside the USA?”
Mr. Goklany also dispatched those silly alarmist arguments pretty effectively in a Cato Institute book entitled “The Improving State of the World.” A la Julian Simon, (and contrary to the claims of the dominant mass media), he does a nice job of describing in solid quantitative terms how good we really have it.
Thanks for the blog, Anthony. Really enjoy reading it.
I do not know much of science at all, as I am a Military Historian.
Brother Raccoon!
Read at 5.14 pm in Auckland (NZ) on 6 July. We’ve just come out of one of the worst (cold and stormy) winter weekends I can remember. Even last year’s South Island cold snap didn’t reach Auckland in the same way.
Great site – I’m here constantly since i discovered it. Thanks for the intelligent debate and up to the minute information.
One wonders what caused the large jump after World War I.
Is the lower number “real” or an artifact? Could it a matter of a failure of reporting during the war? Was there a sudden concern and better reporting after the war? Or is it just “one of those things”?
0105 EDT or 0505 UTC
Don’t forget the ubiquitous media interviews of disaster victims, experiencing the worst ______fill in the blank______ in memory. There’s no media conspiracy here, they’re just finding the hype that sells. If it’s a bad flood, they’ll show the victim that says it’s the worst he ever saw and ignore the old coot that remembers another flood even worse. Just human nature. Also, relying on subjective human memory is a tricky thing; people that experience disasters tend, over time, to let the image of the disaster blur and soften in their minds while others can recall such events with vivid clarity. Solid, objective facts are what counts but usually bore readers and won’t hype viewership.
Just look at the new hurricane season. TV meteorologists are building with breathless anticipation the newest tropical storm of the season. You just know that this one’ll be great copy with a name like Bertha! Here we go again.
Although the number of floods has been increasing, severe floods have been decreasing over the last 30 years and deaths have decreased dramatically. Sorry I can’t find the link.
You can argue this is due to better flood control, but if you do, you also have to accept human management is more important than climate.
BTW, Google shows dozens of studies that link ‘climate change’ to increases in severe floods, despite the fact severe floods are decreasing in frequency. More of the junk climate science I railed against earlier.
Perth, Western Australia
Acknowledged here in Perth, Western Australia. Well said; every article like this helps to counter the disinformation we’re constantly besieged with.
“Despite the recent spate of deadly extreme weather events – such as the 2003 European heat wave…”
I always consider this event to be a tragic example of the lack of energy usage that alarmists are trying to foist on the rest of the world. In this heat wave, temperatures in France, for example, reached into the low 100’s. If more energy was used by having air conditioning, most of these deaths would have been avoided. The US Southwest is a case in point where temperatures routinely exceed those of the European heat wave, and yet somehow we don’t hear about a horrible death toll each summer. It’s really rather simple. All things being equal, higher energy usage = higher standard of living.
Read at 6.45am sunday 6th July england
Forget the facts. You need a graph of media coverage of extreme weather events. Now that would be a hockey stick.
Read a bit later at 7.26am in England.
Anthony
Read at 4.25 pm Central Standard Time in Adelaide, Australia.
Keep up the good work with your fantastic blog, I’m addicted to it and visit a number of times a day. Just thought I’d say hi so you can see your reach.
cheers Neil
Read at 7:07 UT in Belgium.
I’m also wondering about the low in the 1910-1919 decade. Did protection against the war result in better protection against natural disasters (but why don’t we see such a decrease in the 1940-1949)?
Great article!
Read and appreciated as all your articles are – Sweden, 10:27 GMT+1 (summertime)
Hi Anthony
I have just read today’s entry and the time is now 10:36 am (local time = GMT 0836?) Le Touquet, France.
During the weather forecast on French TV we are frequently shown global maps highlighting any typhoons, hurricanes and other extreme weather events. Frightening place this planet. It’s a miracle how we survive.
Read at 10:45am (8:45 am UTC) 6th July in The Netherlands. Hey, it is Sunday and I had a party last night.
The last series of posts was approved at 2:02 am Pacific Daylight Time.
Read at around 10:10 am in sunny(!) UK.
I think that the global comms we have now will highlight more and more weather events. Couple that with the “Hot Topic” of climate change and we get the current hysteria on the subject…
“I always consider this event to be a tragic example of the lack of energy usage that alarmists are trying to foist on the rest of the world. In this heat wave, temperatures in France, for example, reached into the low 100’s. If more energy was used by having air conditioning, most of these deaths would have been avoided. The US Southwest is a case in point where temperatures routinely exceed those of the European heat wave, and yet somehow we don’t hear about a horrible death toll each summer. It’s really rather simple. All things being equal, higher energy usage = higher standard of living.”
I think the main reason for the decline in fatalaties has been missed. As the world as a whole has got richer, both internally and internationally nations are able to react quickly to ameliorate disasters. This is especially true for floods and droughts that mainly cause death by famine.
The extra food has been grown with nitrogen from fossil fuels, the food can be shipped quickly round the globe with fossil fuels.
The wealth has come from fossil fuels, giving people and governments the extra capacity to deal with emergencies.
Even if AGW was a reality, restricting fossil fuel use would certainly increase deaths due to disasters.
Read @ur momisugly 10:33 am, Northern Portugal
(Lisbon: Current time zone offset: UTC/GMT +1 hour )
If i remember correctly, in the beginning of this year, the portuguese IM (institute of meteorology) predicted a +0.5°C above (the last 25 years) average summer. The mainstream media around said it was going to be the hottest summer in 25 years! Of course IM told it was wrong, but the “harm” was done.
So far, we’ve had only about a week of temperatures above 25°C since early june.