How to improve climate modeling and prediction
Increasingly detailed, physics-based models are improving steadily, but an in-depth understanding of the persisting uncertainties is still lacking.
Does the Climate System Have a Preferred Average State? Chaos and the Forcing-Feedback Paradigm
Reposted from Dr. Roy Spencer’s website October 25th, 2019 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. NOTE: I have written on this subject before, but it is important enough that we need to keep thinking about it. It is also related to the forcing-feedback paradigm of climate change, which I usually defend — but which I…
Additional Comments on the Frank (2019) “Propagation of Error” Paper
From Dr Roy Spencer’s Blog September 12th, 2019 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. NOTE: This post has undergone a few revisions as I try to be more precise in my wording. The latest revision was at 0900 CDT Sept. 12, 2019. If this post is re-posted elsewhere, I ask that the above time stamp…
Is The Climate Chaotic?
Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach After I’d published my previous post on the Hurst Exponent entitled A Way To Calculate Effective N, I got an email from Dan Hughes which contained a most interesting idea. He thought that it would be productive to compare the Hurst analysis of the records of weather phenomena such as…