The Conversation Admits Fuel Load Is Responsible For Severe Fires, Not Climate

From ClimateREALISM

A recent article in The Conversation, “Colonisation, not climate change, first primed these forests to burn,” claims that changing forest management practices, or lack thereof, are primarily responsible for Australian wildfires getting out of control, and climate change is only part of the equation. This is true, at least in some respects. Low-intensity controlled burns and timber harvesting can prevent more intense fires from being able to get started, and many indigenous people frequently burned landscapes to improve hunting grounds. This is true of European cultures as well, however, and the framing of this article makes the mistake of forwarding well-meaning but still racist “noble savage” tropes.

The post authors, researchers from the University of Melbourne along with an Aboriginal “Traditional Custodian,” correctly state that “weather is only part of a catastrophic fire.”

They emphasize fuel load as a major component that contributes to out of control, devastating wildfires. Their research focused on the evidence of more frequent, low-intensity fires occurring in the ancient past of Australia, which suddenly stop after British colonization of the continent. They assert that “current fuel load” in Australian forests is due to human intervention, in this case because controlled burning was discontinued after the Aboriginal people were displaced.

The authors “found that for more than 800 years, frequent, low-temperature cultural burning under GunaiKurnai care held this land as stable, open woodland,” and after colonization, “[h]ot fire becomes dominant, shrubs thicken, eucalypt cover surges to nearly four times pre-colonial levels, and open woodland becomes today’s flammable forest.”

They still make nods towards what they call “human-driven climate change,” but acknowledge that it “did not start this vulnerability – it amplifies one that colonisation began.”

There are a few angles at work here, but first I will note that they are correct that controlled burning reduces fuel load and thus makes it harder for very hot fires to get started.

A major mistake of environmentalists of the past several decades was to stop timber harvesting and deadfall clearing, and limit even low intensity natural burns. Climate Realism explains how in posts about California, Texas, and Canada, among others. Environmental goals, like saving the Spotted Owl for instance, seen in Figure 1 below, led to the building up of burnable fuel that can explode into intense wildfires when an arsonist or lightning strikes.

Incorrect in the Conversation piece, however, is the assertion that climate change is making wildfires worse at all. The data simply do not show it, satellite data show that global wildfire occurrence has been on a downward trend for decades. (See Figure 2 below)

Similarly, data show that Australian wildfires are also becoming smaller since peaking in the 1970s, there is no trend towards more or worse drought. If anything, as pointed out in “Climate Blame for Australian Wildfires Ages Poorly, as Rainfall Remains Abundant,” precipitation seems to be improving for the continent since the droughts of the mid-twentieth century.

The authors are probably right that when the previous owners of the land, Aborigines, were pushed out, the land management practices changed. It’s not clear from the article whether the researchers determined with certainty that the frequent low-intensity fires were directed by Aborigines, or just at times allowed to burn when they started naturally.

Their solution is that “Traditional Owners” – that is to say, Aborigines—must be “resourced” so they can restore “healthy Country and cultural burning.”

They do not explain how Aboriginal “cultural burning” is better than normal controlled burning that is done in other parts of the world, one suspects that it is not very different.

Ancient Europeans practiced forest and moorland management as well, thinning forests via logging and controlled burns on the moors were practiced by the British. It is nonsense to imply that white settlers were unaware that these methods helped to maintain healthy woodlands. It is a sort of “noble savage” fallacy being pushed here, that native people were living in harmony with nature, and not constantly battling it, compared to the foolish nature-hating Europeans. Controlled or cultural burning is not, definitionally, living in harmony with nature. It is aggressive management and shaping the land to your own wants and needs, and the Aborigines themselves know this, as they say in the article, “wild Country is sick Country.”

Today, you can’t blame wildfires in Australia on British colonists; a better argument can be made that progressive environmentalists are the ones currently responsible.

It is good that The Conversation allowed any article that explains something as straightforward as the fact that fuel load is more to blame for severe fires than climate change, but it is shameful that it appears the only way this can get published is by making the lede about scolding the British.

The climate data they don't want you to find — free, to your inbox.
Join readers who get 5–8 new articles daily — no algorithms, no shadow bans.
5 10 votes
Article Rating
Subscribe
Notify of
32 Comments
October 13, 2026 10:15 am

“It’s not clear from the article whether the researchers determined with certainty that the frequent low-intensity fires were directed by Aborigines, or just at times allowed to burn when they started naturally.”

Of course, even if they wanted to stop the fire, they wouldn’t have had any way to do it.

sherro01
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
October 13, 2026 3:36 pm

JZ,
Their ability to extinguish tiny fires before they grew was also less than later people had, because the Australian aborigines did not have shoes to get closer small fires to beat them out with green branches.
I have yet to see convincing evidence that aborigines knew anything much about fire management apart from doing what seemed a good idea at the time. Thus, there is no useful “traditional knowledge” available to be passed on to others. The invention and worship by whiteys of the noble savage dreamtime theme is a big problem that hinders correct progress by being included as a part of modern policies about fire management.
If I can be shown links to useful research that show me wrong, I will apologise.
Geoff S

Reply to  sherro01
October 13, 2026 4:20 pm

Makes sense to me.

October 13, 2026 10:17 am

So I wonder what the fire situation was before the aborigines arrived several tens of thousands of years ago? From what I’ve read and seen on YouTube, Australia had megafauna like North America. Maybe all that megafauna did a good job of keeping the vegetation under control?

aussiecol
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
October 13, 2026 3:15 pm

Eucalyptus trees began expanding from rainforests around 20 million years ago and became firmly established around 20 million years ago… as they rely on fire to regenerate, I would say wildfires in Australia were the norm long before aborigine’s arrived. They just learnt to adapt, just like we should with climate change…

aussiecol
Reply to  aussiecol
October 13, 2026 3:46 pm

Sorry… make that around 40 million years ago when they began expanding.

October 13, 2026 10:19 am

“A major mistake of environmentalists of the past several decades was to stop timber harvesting….”

Such idiots are now a worldwide plague. They of course already have nice wood homes, nice wood furniture, tons of paper products but now they want to end timber harvesting to save the planet.

Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
October 13, 2026 11:40 am

A conservative wants a nice log cabin in the woods. A liberal already has one and wants to stop everyone else.

October 13, 2026 11:40 am

Who would have thought that a properly maintained and cleared forest, with firebreaks, would burn less and less intensely, even at 40 degrees Celsius in the shade during a drought, than an impenetrable forest full of undergrowth and deadwood at -40 degrees, with comparable hydrological conditions?

These people really are something else. I’m glad journalists like these exist to make us all smarter.

Mr.
October 13, 2026 11:56 am

The “checker-board” patterns periodic burning that Aborigines did to flush out game for food sources is what limited the conflagration-level bushfires that have occurred since settlement by the Brits, and in more recent times, mismanagement by “environmentalist” government Parks & Forestry Depts.

Mr.
Reply to  Mr.
October 13, 2026 2:04 pm

There’s also an interesting book called
“The Biggest Estate On Earth or How Aborigines Made Australia”
by Bill Gammage.

Intro –
Fire, grass, kangaroos, and human inhabitants, seem all dependent on each other for existence in Australia; for any one of these being wanting, the others could no longer continue. Fire is necessary to burn the grass, and form those open forests . . . But for this simple process, the Australian woods had probably continued as thick a jungle as those of New Zealand or America . . .

DarrinB
October 13, 2026 11:59 am

One thing people keep forgetting to bring up in fuel load is how many trees per acre are being planted after logging. There are planting hundreds of trees per acre when a healthy mature forest might have 20-30 trees per acre. That kind of density makes for fire getting up into the crowns a lot more likely instead of staying a low ground fire.

Yes some areas are thinned as the stand grows but all to many are not. In my time of prowling woodlands for fun coming across a stand so thick with trees and dead limbs it’s physically impossible to get through without a chainsaw. Even worse you are most likely to come across this on public lands and not private forestry lands. State/Federal lands tend not to be taken care of at all where privately owned forest lands are much better tended since this is how they make their living.

October 13, 2026 12:22 pm

It’s about time this obvious and apparent factor in wild fires has been acknowledged. Upon selling our mountain home a few years back, the new owners called us and said “thank you” for mitigating the property. Their homeowners insurance company apparently did a fly over of some sort and knew the property had been mitigated. Essentially, we removed all downfall, the duff (accumulated pine needles and debris) and trimmed trees up 6’. It looked like a park setting. Hence, their insurance cost was not as much as they were expecting. Forest management and mitigation cannot be understated.

MarkW
Reply to  George T
October 13, 2026 2:17 pm

The problem comes when government regulations outlaw proper mitigation.

Randle Dewees
Reply to  George T
October 13, 2026 6:01 pm

Where was that?

October 13, 2026 12:43 pm

Read the various accounts of Cook’s first interaction with the natives.
Compare the actual diary entries with current interpretations of the events.
Very interesting.

https://www.sl.nsw.gov.au/stories/eight-days-in-kamay/introduction/1

Mr.
Reply to  Yirgach
October 13, 2026 2:23 pm

“Re-imagining history . . .”

There’s a lot of that going around 🙂

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Yirgach
October 14, 2026 7:44 am

“Cultural warning

This digital story explores the topic of first contact and features the names, images and voices of people who are now deceased. It refers to historical events and violence that Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander visitors may find distressing, and includes historical documents that contain words and descriptions which are now considered offensive. 

The State Library of NSW respectfully acknowledges the trauma of this history and its ongoing impact on Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people and communities. 

“

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Yirgach
October 14, 2026 7:46 am

One wonders why the Aborigines, and American Indians, just don’t go back to their stone-age lifestyles. Is anything stopping them?

Fran
October 13, 2026 1:02 pm

Bet another reason that the “natives” burned forest floors was to reduce the number of poisonous snakes and spiders that Oz is famous for. If so, that would be the proximal reason for burning, while the long term effects of reducing fuel load on forest growth patterns and risk of large conflagrations would probably not be recognized.

The lack of awareness of effects even in the near term is typical of preliterate societies. It is also present in literate societies unless it is directly studied — eg, movement of solar system because of its religious significance. Take the persistence of bleeding people for both illness and injury in European culture as an example of a deleterious practice that persisted until the circulatory system was studied scientifically.

I am skeptical of traditional knowledge. There is no evidence for any specific treatment for any disease or deficiency, except insofar as there were immediate physiological effects, examples being opium and digitalis. Even there, for example, opium was used for the pain of a broken leg, babies that cried because they were hungry and for general unhappiness. Digitalis appeared in all sorts of tonics, and my grandmother smeared mercury ointment on her psoriasis.

Izaak Walton
Reply to  Fran
October 13, 2026 5:00 pm

“The lack of awareness of effects even in the near term is typical of preliterate societies.”

That is just complete nonsense. Even in preliterate societies people knew that if you fell off a cliff you would die, that stones fell to the ground, that fire was hot and burnt etc. Preliterate societys also knew enough about cause and effect to domesticate animals, grow crops, use metal tools, build Stonehenge, sail across the Pacific etc. If anything they were far more aware of the effects of their actions since their life depended on it.

Editor
October 13, 2026 2:33 pm

In Australia during glacial periods, which were drier, the Eucalypt trees discovered that collectively they recovered from fire more effectively than other trees, so they developed a policy of encouraging fires. The end result is that Eucalypts have spread like weeds across Australia, eliminating other trees or limiting them to pockets.

When rural fire brigades use “cool” burns, the urban greens very quickly complain (about just about everything, but mainly about the smoke). Australia’s only real hope of getting cool burns going routinely is to protect them as aboriginal “cultural” burns. A policy doomed to failure, I think. The Greens are addicted to destruction of everything that works for the people.

I don’t see a solution any time soon, but it could help to get some simple ideas into people’s heads, like:
Eucalypts are weeds.
No fuel, no fire.
Greens are …….

October 13, 2026 2:37 pm

They emphasize fuel load as a major component that contributes to out of control, devastating wildfires. 

Plus lets not forget that CO2 fertilisation has increased plant growth so in that sense anthropogenic CO2 has indeed made fires worse. But good luck arguing that increased plant growth leading to bigger fires is a bad thing.

SwedeTex
Reply to  TimTheToolMan
October 13, 2026 3:01 pm

So let’s eliminate CO2 from the atmosphere, plants will die off, abracadabra – no more fuel or fire. No life either….Shouldn’t have said this as the watermelons will adopt this as a solution..

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  TimTheToolMan
October 14, 2026 12:07 pm

But more CO2 in the atmosphere means less O2, so fires will burn less. 🙂

October 13, 2026 3:02 pm

“They do not explain how Aboriginal “cultural burning” is better than normal controlled burning that is done in other parts of the world, one suspects that it is not very different.”

I would guess that “cultural burning” will be more expensive, a LOT more expensive. In the range of tens to hundreds of thousands of dollars being paid to some aboriginal NGO for “cultural” reasons. Yet another layer of grift in the aboriginal industrial complex where their only product is the placated guilt of liberal white upper middle class urban dwellers at the great expense of tax payers.

observa
Reply to  MarkH
October 13, 2026 11:44 pm

Cultural burning was set fire to anything and spear and club every critter fleeing the flames and obviously you had to be mindful that wasn’t you or your gunyah or wurly. Pretty simple before the advent of more expensive abodes crops and infrastructure with developed firefighting practice fire trails and fire breaks etc
Humans killed the megafauna: new evidence — ABC Science Archive
That was accepted science but naturally that doesn’t gel with the idyllic picture of warm fuzzy hippies at one with Gaia so send more grants and we’ll see if we can reinterpret things.

ethical voter
October 13, 2026 3:02 pm

When Europe was largely forest and communities were mostly villages dotted within the forest smaller trees would have been building material and the smaller wood and branches from the forest floor would be gathered for fuel. This would mitigate the fire risk to the villages.

When the green blob achieves its utopian dream and the few left are scrabbling in the forest for acorns and wood to cook them the problem of wildfires will be solved.

Graeme4
October 13, 2026 4:03 pm

To keep eucalypt forests under control, you need to cool burn at least 10%, preferably 15%, of them every year. Unfortunately, most Australian states cool burn less than 2%. Only Western Australia cool burns close to 10%.
Eucalypt trees drop litter at the rate of 8 tonnes per hectare every year, and only 29% decomposes every year. So it doesn’t take long for the forest floor litter to build up to levels exceeding 20 tonnes per hectare, a level where, if a fire starts, it’s virtually impossible to stop.

1saveenergy
Reply to  Graeme4
October 14, 2026 1:29 am

Sounds like a perfect source for Drax-style biomass.

October 13, 2026 10:07 pm

I have always held that putting out wild fires started by natural means and not threatening lives or infrastructure, does more damage to the environment by allowing the fuel load to increase to the point that the final inevitable blaze is uncontrollable and completely destroys all in it’s path.

I had always believed that the only means Aborigines had to protect themselves from wildfires and ensure survival if they were downwind was to set another fire so well in advance of any potential fire threat coming their way so that they had some burnt area to move onto before the wild fire front reached them. Of course if they left it too late they would be caught in between as the back draught drew the fires together.
What other protection would they have when living in one of the most fire prone areas on earth when the whole landscape is covered by highly inflammable natural vegetation where at times even those with modern means of escape are incapable of escape?

October 14, 2026 3:26 am

The aborigines killed off the mega fauna and probably the Mungo Men too. Whether they invented the barbecue is still uncertain.
You aren’t allowed to investigate the Mungo Men sites in case inconvenient truths emerge.