Another climate-related “crisis” narrative is sapped by observational evidence.
A new study published in a Nature journal finds no acceleration (even a slightly negative acceleration, -0.0003 to -0.00005 yr⁻²) in global-scale drought trends in the modern era of “global warming”.
The zero-acceleration (or slightly declining) trend in global drought appears in Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) observations across 125-year (1900-2024), 75-year (1950-2024), and even the most recent 43-year (1981-2024) records.
Scientists who prefer to advance the narrative that human activity is driving warming, and climate warming accelerates global drought, have historically used negligent statistical methods to “artificially inflate” drying trends six-fold.
Image Source: Wu et al., 2026
A 2022 study that analyzed global annual precipitation trends from 1900 to 2020 also found “no evidence…to show that there has been any increase in precipitation deficits in recent decades that might be attributable to global warming.”
“Another climate-related “crisis” narrative is sapped by observational evidence.”
Whose narrative? This is a straw man. There is no expectation of global drought. There can’t be, because evaporation from the sea will increase.
There is an expectation that the rain may fall in different places, but looking at global totals won’t illuminate that.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/failed-climate-prediction-timeline/droughts-are-increasing-due-to-climate-change/
That says nothing about a global drought. It says rain may move in such a way that some areas miss out.
Missed this? “the majority of scientists have started to link more intense droughts to climate change”
“And it’s not surprising – droughts have been drier and lasting longer in recent years thanks in part to climate change”
https://www.climaterealityproject.org/blog/facts-about-climate-change-and-drought
The underlying paper.
Nothing there about global drought. It talks about some regions being affected.
Australia is an example here. The SW is drying, and it’s bad. It’s due to the expansion of the Hadley cell driving W winds further south. But rain in the North is increasing, because the monsoons are coming further south.
So some places gain, some lose. That won’t show up in a global average.
The South West, where I live, has been drying since before Climate Change.AGW became a thing. but you must tell us how CO2 causes it.
“Bony, S., et al. (2013). “Robust direct effect of carbon dioxide on tropical circulation and regional precipitation.” Nature Geoscience, 6, 447–451.”
In 2013 the concentration of CO2 in dry air was ca.395 ppmv. One cubic meter of this air has a mass of 1,290 g and contained a mere 0.78 g of CO2 at STP. This small amount of CO2 can have no effect on weather and climatE.
“So some places gain, some lose.”
That’s nature for you. Always changing.
Global climate, global drought. If there is no global drought then there is no global climate. If there is no global climate, there is no global climate change.
Oh, so there IS more than one “climate” on this planet?
(Truth be known, there are hundreds, if not thousands of the buggers all around this globe, all doing their own things according to their separate influences, in their own cycles.)
So now that you’re realizing this reality Nick, maybe you can start appreciating each climate’s unique characteristics, and leave off all the “global average” nonsense?
ps- please also share your revelation with your mates in the “climate conniptions club”.
Sounds a little like climate variation and as regards the Hadley cells yes they will widen or contract depending on the climate but will they be able to defeat the climatic impact of land to sea shifts caused by sea to land for want of a better word shapes.
It’s very clear to any multi decadal observer that we move through climate phases Australia has had long periods of draught and wets most observers have not as yet understood causal link.
Suddenly we have many fixing change to CAGW far to convenient even if it’s partially true, does it increase our understanding of the systems I think not.
The last 3 decades have been gifted with the best instrument and computational power ever and it’s been weaponized for political greed.
“So some places gain, some lose. That won’t show up in a global average.”
Pretty much the same for any of the climate change nonsense.
He’s being disingenuous and arguing that “global drought” is some unique state unforseen by the models, rather than simply drought aggregated on a global scale. The fact that drought is decreasing globally contradicts the claim that droughts will intensify under climate change, so he has to change the meaning and argue semantics to oppose it.
Then he will turn around and argue that global temperature is real.
You nailed it.
The idea of a global drought is so absurd only Nick Stokes could entertain it. Where would all the water go, for one question?
And Stokes has the temerity to call himself a scientist!
Nah! More likely just channelling Young Sheldon while missing the irony.
Not dissing Nick but he is not a scientist. He’s a mathematician.
BOM… ”Drought is more likely””As the climate warms, the hazards Australia faces will change. Climate change means it is likely southern Australia will spend more time in drought. Increasing temperatures can mean a drought has more impact, by worsening dry conditions.”
Centre for climate change and energy solutions….
”Some climate models find that warming increases precipitation variability, meaning there will be more periods of both extreme precipitation and drought. ”
Drought | AdaptNSW – NSW Government…..
”AdaptNSW
Climate change is increasing temperatures and affecting rainfall in NSW. Climate projections show that droughts in NSW will be more severe and last longer.”
Climate Council…..
”21 June 2018 — Accelerating climate change is exacerbating drought conditions across parts of southern Australia,”
World Bank Group….
”11 Sept 2023 — Climate change is expected to lead to greater drought severity in most regions,”
World Bank Group…..
”11 Sept 2023 — Climate change is expected to lead to greater drought severity in most regions,”
Union of Concerned Scientists…..
”18 May 2021 — Changes in precipitation, rising temperatures, groundwater depletion, and human decisions are exacerbating drought conditions in many regions of the world”
Banton and various other nuff nuffs on here.
Thank you Nick for disproving the false concept of a “global climate.”
There is a drought in the west of the US. Lake Meade and Lake Powell are at their lowest levels since their formation. For Lake Meade there is a “snow” drought. I have read there is drought around Tehran and the city is about to run out fresh water.
Water usage requires management and people the ruling class hate saying no to voters, so it’s not them its CAGW.
Ayatollah made crisis! They built a huge dam over a salt dome despite the advice of infidel heretic scientists and engineers.
More good news, it’s time to shelf CAGW.
Typo? “Image Source: Wu et al., 2026” looks like it should be Xu et al….
(I just saw today’s post about the older retracted paper and the reference to Xu et al.)