From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
By Paul Homewood
Thank heaven for America!
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=68125
US on Track for Record Oil Output in 2026
46 Comments
Because Iran cannot be allowed to have a nuclear weapon, and resented Trump’s actions to insure that enough to foolishly attempt to go to war against the US and Israel. Even tho their leadership has now been decapitated, and their Air Force and Navy both completely destroyed, Iran retains sufficient residual drone and missiles (estimates are 15-20% of initial stocks) to still threaten Hormuz, plus a distributed C&C fanatical IRGC using them difficult to eliminate without boots on the ground—which isn’t going to happen.
A serious problem that festered for 49 years might take a bit longer than just 6 months to fully resolve. But fully resolved it will surely be on 47’s watch.
The world is already building crude oil pipeline bypass options that in just two or three years will insure Hormuz is never again a strategic choke point, rendering Iran irrelevant thereafter.
Yes, I know that logic. But we also weren’t truly at war with Germany and Japan’s citizens, only its horrible governments. But to win WWII we smashed those countries- and when it was over, its citizens were not unfriendly to America and the UK. If smashing Iran’s bridges and power plants- I didn’t say smash its dwellings and commercial buildings- it’ll speed up this “war”- and stop the ballistic missile attacks. Whatever it takes to end the war is worth it- especially considering the economic damage it’s doing to every other nation.
They were brainwashed like climatistas. 🙂
And there are people in Iran also wearing uniforms and carrying weapons in support of its government- AND powerful ballistic missiles. I bet the people on the receiving end would love it if we smashed Iran’s infrastructure, not so much its ordinary citizens as we did in WWII.
Three classes of weapons: Radiological, Atomic, Nuclear.
Nuclear is fusion and requires plutonium.
Atomic is fission and involves uranium.
Radiological involves a high explosive charge and anything radioactive.
Iran has 1000 lb of 60% enriched uranium.
Iran has 200 lb of 80% enriched uranium.
There are no commercial or medical uses for high grade uranium.
To think they stopped at 80% when another week gives them “weapons grade” 90% is a false hope.
Iran has an atomic bomb. It has not been tested, so we do not know if it works. My guess is better than 50-50 it will.
On the other hand, while it will not blow up a city, a radiological weapon will spread critical levels of radioactive fallout over large areas. Just stick some of that 60% into their 2500 km missile (with maneuverable warhead). Any direction they shoot it goes over land and people. Shooting it down will cause a radiological disaster.
The other question is the Houthis. Trump did not bomb them in this current conflict. They are doing what they are doin because Iran wants belt and suspenders, covering the odds that Hormuz gets reopened, but keeping the crisis alive by closing the Red Sea.
“Three classes of weapons: Radiological, Atomic, Nuclear.”
Just wondering where the most common weapons in the world (those energized by chemicals such as RDX, TNT, PETN, HMX and gunpowder) fit is one of the categories that you defined?
Also, please define the difference between “atomic” and “nuclear”. 🙂
Related to that issue, I assuming you differentiate “radiological” from the other two by implying something like a “dirty bomb” that does not involve nuclear reaction “criticality”, but please correct me if I’m wrong. You know . . . the fact being that both nuclear fission bombs and thermonuclear fusion bombs require “high explosive charges” to initiate their detonation.
The topic was “Because Iran cannot be allowed to have a nuclear weapon, ”
which defines the context of my post.
Radiological was often called dirty bomb, yes.
I did define atomic and nuclear in my prior post.
Yes, the explosive charges are present in nuclear and atomic weapons, but the blast is aimed inward to create the necessary pressure and heat. A radiological weapon explodes outward to disperse the radioactive debris.
Atomic was replaced with nuclear in the social fluidity of language because nuclear is much more fear inspiring. US dropped an atomic bomb on Hiroshima.
Technically, in today’s language, an atomic bomb is a nuclear weapon even though fission is atom splitting..
Yes, Sparta, and I suspect too much influence by the “robot” economic trading aspects of what market there remains.
And do not forget the U.S. could cut off all petro chemical trade and do fairly well using what is able to produce within its borders and to hell with the rest of the world.
But our system is still retaining most of its basic free market, capitalist aspects. Unlike what we saw in Venezuela after they nationalized the oil industry 39 years ago.
Gums sends…
The US economy is overheated. The Federal Reserve is forced to raise interest rates by 0.25% to cool the US economy.
The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 – 0 vote:
The Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.
September 16, 2026 6:49 am
Pre Iran war, Hormuz transited about 18 mbpd. It was about 4 mbpd last week. No way the increases in US crude production make up an about 14 mbpd global shortfall. Hopefully the US two front Iran actions—hitting IRGC, blockade plus sanctions—will have Hormuz more or less fully reopened soon.
The good news is that the US itself is energy secure even tho impacted at present by global price increases owing to the global transshipment shortfall.
September 16, 2026 6:51 am
The US is the world’s largest crude oil producer and can sell its excess crude oil production to other countries.
The U.S. remained the world’s largest producer, averaging 13.6 million barrels per day of crude plus condensate in 2025. That represented 15.8% of global production, a 2.7% gain from the previous year, and yet another record high.
The U.S. remained the world’s largest consumer at 19.4 million barrels per day, equal to 18.8% of global oil demand. However, that remains below the record highs of 20 years ago, which were above 20 million barrels per day.
September 16, 2026 8:07 am
Production has actually plateau’d. The best fit line for the last few years of production is a parabola. More to the point, YOY proved reserves – even counting the proved, developed, non producing category that has been coming up short lately – has actually DROPPED. Worse, the combo of sugar high production, dropping reserves, yields a diminished and diminishing ratio of reserves/present production. All with high oil price, a move towards M&A and rational drilling/completion CapEx and OpEx, Ben Dover environmental, safety, health, non regulation, and 13 $ figures of shirked and to be shirked asset retirement obligations.
Search for Hubbert’s curve, school up, write back.
From what I observed: Last years oil price outlook looked bleak for shale producers. The war and the elevated prices should be really great for them. This is probably their last chance to really cash out. After the war(s) I expect the price to drop even further because of the additional demand destruction and far more mature and more widespread alternatives.
Yet no drilling boom and all you hear is that they somehow developed “capital discipline”. All while trump is trying to grab all the oil he can from other countries. Somethings not adding up there.
CapEx and OpEx plans can’t change that fast. The shale drillers are new adherents to capital discipline, and are good at it. So, drilling is down, completions are down, accretive M&A, WAY up. All with us petroleum engineers out of tricks to reduce frac hits, competitive drainage, continued candidate quality declne.
Those very few who went bare on hedges might have a couple of good quarters, but those $’s will get sidelined to exec boni, stock buybacks, maybe some more accretive M&A, with extra value mainly from run offs.
Nope. Find where I did so, “years” ago. I merely told you how it was getting harder and harder to keep up. and that it was largely the MacGyvers of me and other petroleum engineers that allowed us to trade $’s for this long. But now that we’re out of tricks, true, from now on. You can bookmark this, unlike the nonextant past posts from me that you reference.
