From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
By Paul Homewood
Thank heaven for America!
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=68125
US on Track for Record Oil Output in 2026
- Thursday, October 1, 2026
From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
By Paul Homewood
Thank heaven for America!
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=68125
Please remind me why oil is currently so expensive…
Because it’s an essential, highly in demand, coveted commodity.
Not only that, but the war on coal has required larger-scale use of natural gas. The UK and Germany have nearly ceased supplying domestic FF power. It’s all imported, driving up global prices.
Because Iran cannot be allowed to have a nuclear weapon, and resented Trump’s actions to insure that enough to foolishly attempt to go to war against the US and Israel. Even tho their leadership has now been decapitated, and their Air Force and Navy both completely destroyed, Iran retains sufficient residual drone and missiles (estimates are 15-20% of initial stocks) to still threaten Hormuz, plus a distributed C&C fanatical IRGC using them difficult to eliminate without boots on the ground—which isn’t going to happen.
A serious problem that festered for 49 years might take a bit longer than just 6 months to fully resolve. But fully resolved it will surely be on 47’s watch.
The world is already building crude oil pipeline bypass options that in just two or three years will insure Hormuz is never again a strategic choke point, rendering Iran irrelevant thereafter.
If Iran doesn’t bag it soon, I hope Trump destroys all their major bridges and power plants. He’s been going easy on them.
But you DO know why he hasn’t done that, right? He isn’t against the people of Iran, just the theocracy. He wants them to stand up and throw off their insane rulers, so the following government is legitimate and we cannot be accused of setting up a puppet government.
Yes, I know that logic. But we also weren’t truly at war with Germany and Japan’s citizens, only its horrible governments. But to win WWII we smashed those countries- and when it was over, its citizens were not unfriendly to America and the UK. If smashing Iran’s bridges and power plants- I didn’t say smash its dwellings and commercial buildings- it’ll speed up this “war”- and stop the ballistic missile attacks. Whatever it takes to end the war is worth it- especially considering the economic damage it’s doing to every other nation.
Technically yes and no. Many of the combatants in those countries were fanatically aligned with the government. The people put on uniforms and took up weapons. A nuance.
They were brainwashed like climatistas. 🙂
And there are people in Iran also wearing uniforms and carrying weapons in support of its government- AND powerful ballistic missiles. I bet the people on the receiving end would love it if we smashed Iran’s infrastructure, not so much its ordinary citizens as we did in WWII.
True, but the point is, the nuance, we fought the citizens. Nit, I admit.
The reports I see show ever increasing dissatisfaction by the people and harsher responses by the government enforcers.
The Iranian regime cannot survive and won’t- one way or the other.
Either the regime survives or the people survive. I do not see both coexisting much longer.
[“I didn’t say smash its dwellings and commercial buildings“]
That’s what the far right zionists have done in Gaza & is now doing in Lebanon & the West Bank (assisted by the US & UK ) as part of Israel’s land grab.
Assisted by the UK? Please take a look at Ed “Loonie” Miliband’s recent speech on Israel as Foreign Secretary:
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/foreign-secretary-oral-statement-on-israel-palestine
What do you expect from a nincompoop who thought he could change the climate, and also thought it was a good idea?
Miliband said …
“The sanctions regime will target illegal settlements and settlement expansion, not Israel.”
“The legislation I have announced today will be in place within 6 to 9 months”
( so they have plenty of time to kill & displace lots more Palestinians )
On 2 September 2024, the Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, announced the suspension of around 30 licences, out of about 350, to Israel.
We still supply arms, drone parts, vehicles & explosives to the IDF.
This has so much to do with oil production.
Sheesh.
Israel wants Hamas to surrender unconditionally. Just like America told Germany and Japan in WWII- so we carpet bombed, fire bombed both and nuke Japan. Numerically speaking, the Hamas attack on Israel, would be as if Mexico invaded Texas and killed 75K people. Can you image how America would react- considering that the attack on Pearl Harbor only killed 2.5K? All the death and destruction in Gaza and Lebanon and WB is due to Hamas and all the hatred of Israel since the day it started.
[“All the death and destruction in Gaza and Lebanon and WB is due to Hamas and all the hatred of Israel since the day it started.”]
Agreed; now go to the history of Zionism ( founded by Theodor Herzl in 1897 ) & see what has led to the hatred of modern-day Israel & the reasons for the rise of Hamas.
Sure, Israel’s history is complex. But all that hatred for all this time hasn’t done the Middle East any good, has it. They would have been better off accepting Israel and that entire region would be much better off today. NO nation has a clean history- including the UK and America.
A lot of the problems in Palestine can be laid at the UK’s door
following the Balfour Declaration of 1917 & the British occupation known as ‘THE BRITISH MANDATE IN PALESTINE 1917-1948’.
In that time, many atrositys/war crimes were committed by the British against the indigenous population ( my grandfather was out there & resigned his commission to avoid being involved in any more bloodshed ); Read https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Bassa_massacre
An estimated 4,000 Palestinians were killed and nearly 15,000 wounded by British forces just in the three year period 1936-39.
One specific clause in the Balfour Declaration stated …
“nothing shall be done which may prejudice the civil and religious rights of existing non-Jewish communities.”
The British breached this promise to protect the rights of the Palestinian people by disenfranchising the indigenous (94%) Arab majority.
In 1948, after forcibly removing ~500,000 Palestinians from their land to give to Jewish settlers, Britain walked away, leaving the newly formed Israeli Defence Force ( IDF) to do what it liked; it went downhill from there.
Any wonder there is deep-seated resentment.
Mr. energy: You seem to know much that isn’t true.
It’s all a matter of well-documented history; you just have to read it.
There is a vast amount of archived documentation & photos at the Imperial War Museums, Hansard,
https://primarysources.brillonline.com/browse/palestine-the-british-mandate, the Central Zionist Archives Jerusalem, the Israel State Archives & the National Library of Israel, amongst others.
The real problem is humans. Every single nation has a dirty history. Every nation got built by fighting with its neighbors until boundaries became fairly stable- but periodically they become unstable. Just endless tribal warfare on a larger scale. Then there are wars in families- in companies. It’s just the way it is. We try to keep it at a slow burn, but sometimes the burn flares up. I’m not saying it’s OK- I’m saying it’s reality.
Your understanding of what is happening over there is highly biased.
Like Greta knows the science by reading headlines, you know the situation by reading headlines.
It’s because he wants them to retain their oil production and export capability for when they come back into the real world.
Sure, but it’s imperative to end the war ASAP- then they can repair whatever needs repairing. No need to damage the oil fields or refineries. They’re already rebuilding that one big bridge that was destroyed.
Three classes of weapons: Radiological, Atomic, Nuclear.
Nuclear is fusion and requires plutonium.
Atomic is fission and involves uranium.
Radiological involves a high explosive charge and anything radioactive.
Iran has 1000 lb of 60% enriched uranium.
Iran has 200 lb of 80% enriched uranium.
There are no commercial or medical uses for high grade uranium.
To think they stopped at 80% when another week gives them “weapons grade” 90% is a false hope.
Iran has an atomic bomb. It has not been tested, so we do not know if it works. My guess is better than 50-50 it will.
On the other hand, while it will not blow up a city, a radiological weapon will spread critical levels of radioactive fallout over large areas. Just stick some of that 60% into their 2500 km missile (with maneuverable warhead). Any direction they shoot it goes over land and people. Shooting it down will cause a radiological disaster.
The other question is the Houthis. Trump did not bomb them in this current conflict. They are doing what they are doin because Iran wants belt and suspenders, covering the odds that Hormuz gets reopened, but keeping the crisis alive by closing the Red Sea.
That’s if you believe Iranian sources, or Donald J. Trump. They agree.
I do not have to believe either 1. IAEA published the quantities. Prior work gives me the rest of the story.
“Three classes of weapons: Radiological, Atomic, Nuclear.”
Just wondering where the most common weapons in the world (those energized by chemicals such as RDX, TNT, PETN, HMX and gunpowder) fit is one of the categories that you defined?
Also, please define the difference between “atomic” and “nuclear”. 🙂
Related to that issue, I assuming you differentiate “radiological” from the other two by implying something like a “dirty bomb” that does not involve nuclear reaction “criticality”, but please correct me if I’m wrong. You know . . . the fact being that both nuclear fission bombs and thermonuclear fusion bombs require “high explosive charges” to initiate their detonation.
Fusion bombs typically require deuterium/tritium. The tritium decays over time, making the bomb useless. It has to be replaced, periodically.
Yes. Thermonuclear requires hydrogen, hence called H-bombs.
Yeah, tritium has a half-life of 12 years so you are correct. Fusion bombs need to be refreshed regularly or they will not work as expected.
The topic was “Because Iran cannot be allowed to have a nuclear weapon, ”
which defines the context of my post.
Radiological was often called dirty bomb, yes.
I did define atomic and nuclear in my prior post.
Yes, the explosive charges are present in nuclear and atomic weapons, but the blast is aimed inward to create the necessary pressure and heat. A radiological weapon explodes outward to disperse the radioactive debris.
Atomic was replaced with nuclear in the social fluidity of language because nuclear is much more fear inspiring. US dropped an atomic bomb on Hiroshima.
Technically, in today’s language, an atomic bomb is a nuclear weapon even though fission is atom splitting..
Whether it’s plutonium or uranium, both use fission. It is hydrogen (1H3) that is used for fusion. But the hydrogen bombs use fission from plutonium to provide the necessary temperature/pressure to initiate the fusion.
Thank you for the clarification.
I went back and double checked.
One of the early air strikes (US in Iran) was the Arak heavy water production facility.
The report alludes to heavy water production involvement in producing plutonium.
The points above about deuterium and tritium are correct.
The point of this update is Iran, in addition to highly processed uranium likely has plutonium as well and may also have the heavy water needed for a thermo-nuclear device.
So, I am will to acknowledge that the policy of not letting Iran have a nuclear weapon may indeed be the correct phraseology.
Relating facts to a committed or paid troll is unproductive, even in the face of nuclear war by an avowed user of such weapons with intent to attack. But a reminder of what’s at stake is critical when facing a missile-worshipping theocracy and slumbering masses and advocates.
I found the questions asked fair and reasonably stated.
Had it been made in the form of flame warrior, I would have responded differently.
Any reasonable question, reasonably asked, warrants an equally reasonable answer.
The price is not set by free market supply and demand.
An international price is set.
Stock futures are a big influence.
Try learning something about international economics and you might get a clue.
Nah. Just blame it on Trump as you so fondly do…. constantly.
Yes, Sparta, and I suspect too much influence by the “robot” economic trading aspects of what market there remains.
And do not forget the U.S. could cut off all petro chemical trade and do fairly well using what is able to produce within its borders and to hell with the rest of the world.
But our system is still retaining most of its basic free market, capitalist aspects. Unlike what we saw in Venezuela after they nationalized the oil industry 39 years ago.
Gums sends…
You are not producing enough, there would still be rationing
There would be no need to ration if you stopped posting.
The US economy is overheated. The Federal Reserve is forced to raise interest rates by 0.25% to cool the US economy.
I am aware of the Fed interest rate, but that has nothing to do with the cause of higher oil prices. Nor is it fundamentally are response to higher oil prices.
Please remind me why you ever use it for any reason….
You tell us why you use oil every day and why you continue to use it
Because socialists have done everything in their power to restrict production for the last 30 years.
Ask your friend Zelenskyy why he feels compelled to destroy so many refineries.
Then ask your friends in the IRGC why are they blowing up refineries, or while their proxies are destroying pipelines or attacking oil carriers.
Better yet, ask your political party why they felt it necessary to shut down oil fields, cancel approved pipelines and tax and regulate existing refineries out of production.
Or inflated the dollar so much that the dollar would buy less of anything.
Your asking the question indicates that you have neither the intellectual capacity nor honesty to recognize that your favored policies are oriented towards, as your messiah Obama famously boasted “With my policies, energy prices will necessarily skyrocket”, lower or constant energy prices.
Its because you wanted to destroy the energy economy. Look in the mirror, hypocrite.
‘Ask your friend Zelenskyy why he feels compelled to destroy so many refineries.’
As you surmise, the big issue today is lack of refining capacity. If the US Left is able to hide its overtly unpopular positions behind high gas & diesel prices in the upcoming mid-terms, it will mark the second time Zelenskyy has sabotaged a Trump presidency.
You omitted Russia destroying Ukrainian refineries and energy infrastructure.
All bad, agreed.
Because the US economy is in growth mode as seen in high job openings data, good net job growth, low UI claims, and an investment supercycle that is being deployed here and not elsewhere. Markets are volatile, especially when Dems work consistently against refineries, pipelines, drilling on vast government lands, and vast offshore potential. Other that that it takes time for Guyana and freed populations in Venezuela to get rich with oil field development.
I don’t think the 47 Dems who signed the congressional letter to block BYD cars from America were concerned about high gas prices.
Thank Heaven for Republicans/Conservatives!
This Good News would not be happening if the Democrats/Socialists/Communists were in control in the United States.
Yuh, they’re only in control of NYC, Chicago, LA, Seattle and a few other declining cities. Oh, and of course Boston.
Pre Iran war, Hormuz transited about 18 mbpd. It was about 4 mbpd last week. No way the increases in US crude production make up an about 14 mbpd global shortfall. Hopefully the US two front Iran actions—hitting IRGC, blockade plus sanctions—will have Hormuz more or less fully reopened soon.
The good news is that the US itself is energy secure even tho impacted at present by global price increases owing to the global transshipment shortfall.
And let us not forget that Venezuela is now coming back online, and the crude is controlled by US, not the Chinese.
Of course, the US has to steal all the Chinese assets in Venezuela first. The Chinese government has indicated such action would be unhelpful in maintaining good relationships with the US.
No problem, the US has Israeli permission to act in self defence in any way it wishes. Kidnap heads of state, blow up fishing boats and come back to murder any survivors, slaughter 168 pupils and staff at a girls’ school, engage in wanton acts of torture and assassination, support genocidal state terrorism, and generally stomp around acting fierce, threatening to wipe out anybody who objects.
You support the US government, don’t you?
Down the rabbit hole he goes…. again.
Saw a report this AM that Hormuz traffic was back up to 18 mbpd, not sure if it is real. Can’t find it now.
The US is the world’s largest crude oil producer and can sell its excess crude oil production to other countries.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2026/07/12/the-us-is-both-the-worlds-top-oil-producer-and-top-consumer/
[“The US is the world’s largest crude oil producer and can sell its excess crude oil production to other countries.“]
What excess ???
According to the figs you quote …
“USA uses 19.4 million barrels per day
“produces 13.6 million barrels per day
Deficit = 5.8 million barrels per day
Crude versus refined.
How much of the refined is exported?
Production has actually plateau’d. The best fit line for the last few years of production is a parabola. More to the point, YOY proved reserves – even counting the proved, developed, non producing category that has been coming up short lately – has actually DROPPED. Worse, the combo of sugar high production, dropping reserves, yields a diminished and diminishing ratio of reserves/present production. All with high oil price, a move towards M&A and rational drilling/completion CapEx and OpEx, Ben Dover environmental, safety, health, non regulation, and 13 $ figures of shirked and to be shirked asset retirement obligations.
Search for Hubbert’s curve, school up, write back.
YOY = Year Over Year
Thx. Guilty as charged of insider speak.
Hearing voices, Bob?
Must be that “sugar high” 🙂
From what I observed: Last years oil price outlook looked bleak for shale producers. The war and the elevated prices should be really great for them. This is probably their last chance to really cash out. After the war(s) I expect the price to drop even further because of the additional demand destruction and far more mature and more widespread alternatives.
Yet no drilling boom and all you hear is that they somehow developed “capital discipline”. All while trump is trying to grab all the oil he can from other countries. Somethings not adding up there.
CapEx and OpEx plans can’t change that fast. The shale drillers are new adherents to capital discipline, and are good at it. So, drilling is down, completions are down, accretive M&A, WAY up. All with us petroleum engineers out of tricks to reduce frac hits, competitive drainage, continued candidate quality declne.
Those very few who went bare on hedges might have a couple of good quarters, but those $’s will get sidelined to exec boni, stock buybacks, maybe some more accretive M&A, with extra value mainly from run offs.
Cash out? The bankers i know are adding to their shale well count because have had enough time to realize these wells for oil or gas in shales have longer production lives. And the lack of any surge into marginal well status proves it. But I guess none of that fits your narrative.
Bob’s been telling us about how we have hit peak oil years ago for years.
Nope. Find where I did so, “years” ago. I merely told you how it was getting harder and harder to keep up. and that it was largely the MacGyvers of me and other petroleum engineers that allowed us to trade $’s for this long. But now that we’re out of tricks, true, from now on. You can bookmark this, unlike the nonextant past posts from me that you reference.
US on Track for Record Oil Output in 2026
UK on Track for Record Energy Costs in 2026, 2027, 2028 etc
US has also record energy costs and without renewables the UK would be far worse off.
On the other hand, had they invested in fossil fuels instead of renewables, they would be in much better shape.
….. and the infrastructure was already there in the North Sea. What you get for electing idiots.
Oil was $140/bbl in mid-2008 with a much milder supply/demand imbalance.
Opinion stated as fact.
Sophistry.
Yes, thank heaven for the US! . . . trying to keep the world free . . . that is, of course, excluding the price of gasoline, diesel and all other petroleum products. 😉
to bend the knee to the US, of course. The 5% dictating what the 95% have to do.
Can anybody see any potential problems?
Do you wear a cute skirt and shake pompoms when leading this cheer leading program?
So much for peak oil during the Biden admin.
It is my understanding that the majority of oil being produced domestically is light weight fracked shale oil–good for some things, but no so good when it comes to the middle distillate that are necessary to refine such as diesel and jet fuels. I suspect that’s why we decided to take Venezuela’s fields again since a couple of gulf coast refineries were built to handle the heavy stuff from Venezuela. However, since it has been years since those refineries have been on line for the heavy crude, lots of maintenance before production. The price per gallon is going to stay elevated for a while if the mid east stays messed up.
‘It is my understanding that the majority of oil being produced domestically is light weight fracked shale oil–good for some things, but no so good when it comes to the middle distillate that are necessary to refine such as diesel and jet fuels.’
Hence the importance of importing heavy ‘crude’ from Canada.
A fair assessment with a good chance of being accurate.
It’s the old story of having to dance with whomever you brought to the party. Renewables have had their chance, but they’ve proved inadequate on the basis of reliability, so the world has returned to what works best.
But when the dance is over, can you leave with someone else? 😉
More good news, let’s use it responsibly.
Oh, dear, Mr Homewood, too scared to discuss the role of the USA in the Middle East wars right now?
How many millions of barrels of oil have they destroyed from global distribution, eh?
The USA is the worst actor on the planet in the global oil industry right now.
All the problems in the world economy come directly from Trump’s criminality the past 22 months. The war in Iran, the spread into Saudi Arabia, it’s all down to Trump’s messianic complex, allied to his control by Jewish racists in Israel.
Who is your handler?
Is that really the best you can do? If you can’t come up with something sensible, cast your opponent as Communist, anti-Semitic, Holocaust denier, anti-science, or something equally pointless.
Would you like some advice on how to present a rational argument, if you disagree with the commenter’s opinion?
That is the best you can do?
Your ad hominem is noted.
Your Anti-Trump hatred is noted as well.
Post a link to any of my comments that fit your narrative that I am casting an “opponent” in anything like you suggest.
Would I like advice from you?
About anything?
Hell no.
I prefer to think rationally.
This is good.