From the Cliff Mass Weather Blog
Cliff Mass
The media and social media are abuzz with talk about the upcoming “Super” El Niño, with forecasts of low snowpack, drought conditions, and massive wildfires (see sample below).
My local newspaper and some amateur social media are making similar claims.
Few of these scary claims are supported by the facts: in reality, the outlook is quite favorable for our region if a “Super El Niño” continues to develop.
Let me prove this to you.
Surprisingly, there is nothing called a “Super El Nino” in the scientific world.
If the temperature anomaly (difference from normal) of the ocean surface in the tropical Pacific is 1.5 to 2 C above normal, it is called a strong El Niño. More than 2C, a very strong El Niño. The media calls this a “super”; the scientific community does not.
Below is the latest forecast by NOAA. They are predicting a very strong El Niño this autumn (peaking around 2.2 C above normal).
There is little doubt we will get a very strong El Nino, but this is not unprecedented, with others occurring in 1982-1983, 1997-1998, 2015-2016, and 2023-2024 (others have occurred before as well).
A KEY point is that very strong El Niños are very different animals than their more moderate cousins. With different impacts.
Moderate to strong El Niños are typically associated with less snowpack and drier-than-normal conditions.
Very strong El Niños bring near-normal snowpack and plenty of moisture.
Thus, our water resources are generally fine with very strong El Niños like the upcoming winter.
Want the proof?
Below is a plot of precipitation from October to April (our wet season) since 1980. The red arrows indicate very strong (“super”) El Nino years, and the yellow line is the average of the period (1980 to today).
Very strong El Niño years are NOT particularly dry… their average is a bit ABOVE NORMAL.
Let’s check out a few sites, looking at April 1 snowpack (which is generally the date used for evaluations).
Crystal Mountain Ski area (around 6000 ft)? Snowpack during very strong El Niños is nearly normal (horizontal line) during such years.
The much lower Stampede Pass (4000 ft)? Same story.
Even LOWER at Snoqualmie Pass (below). Same story…nearly normal snowpack during very strong El Niño years!
Very strong El Niño years have near-normal snowpack in our mountains. I could show you a dozen other locations: same story.
What about temperature? Over Washington State at the surface, very strong El Niño years are about 1°F above normal, although one was below normal (2024).
With normal rain and mountain snow during a very strong El Nino year, the expectation is that there will be plenty of water next year for our region’s needs.
So those predicting drought, drastically reduced snowpack, and enhanced wildfires over the region will have a lot of the proverbial egg on their face next summer.
So what exactly does a very strong El Niño do to the larger-scale atmospheric circulation around here? I am a weather scientist and am curious!
Below is the average of the upper-level heights at 500 hPa (think pressure at 18,000 ft), showing the difference from normal for October through March of a very strong El Niño year. Purple is much lower than normal heights/pressure (a strong trough).
Mama mia! A HUGE intense low-pressure area over the north Pacific!
Let’s look at the local implications of this intense pattern by examining the difference from normal in the winds around 5000 ft for such a very strong El Nino year (below).
There are greatly enhanced winds from the southwest offshore, bringing in lots of moisture into the West Coast. That means more precipitation. NO DROUGHT.
To demonstrate this, below is the difference in precipitation from normal for such very strong El Niño years. A lot more precipitation over the West Coast, with the greatest increase over northern CA and southern Oregon.
Our region will be a bit warmer than normal, but the additional moisture should result in near-normal snowpack in the mountains above 3500 ft. Lots of water to fill reservoirs and moisten the soils.
No problem.
The unscientific sensationalism is strong with these catastrophists…they have far too much bad influence…
Mainly because there are shadowy people who keep throwing money their way…
[maca]rONI R.I.P., we hardly knew ye, then poof — in a li’l steam-puff — & ye were a-goner!
Credits: J. Bastardi & his crew at WeatherBell-Analytics
Off topic: we’re now gonna have a Climate Youth Council in Wokeachusetts- the little red guards of the climate hoax. https://www.mass.gov/forms/apply-for-the-youth-climate-council
Dare I go there? Just a few years ago, this coming name would be Jumping the Shark. But: DSA is firmly here in America; so: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hitler_Youth
so we now have the Woke Youth, trained to save the planet for green energy companies, illegal aliens, and DEI.
These people are delusional – Office of Climate Innovation and Resilience | Mass.gov
Exactly. They’re bonkers. The entire state government, every part of it, must toe the party line. All top positions are DEI- especially all energy and enviro agencies. Actually, it’s now one agency, the EEA- energy and environment. They put on webinars where they preach the green mission. And, they have it translated into something like 30 languages! You know, in case there’s anyone from the Congo, or Bulgaria or Afghanistan who wants to know the latest green policies of the state.
Super El Nino video
The comments I have heard about the effect on
south Texas near us, are that the winter will be wetter and cooler. Wetter would be great since we’re in the midst of several years of less than normal rainfall.
That would be nice–last measurable rainfall around this part of Texas was July 17. Dirt tanks are in need of a recharge.
Each time the article uses the word ‘normal’ is an error. The word should be ‘average’ instead. There IS no normal in weather, there are only averages. Some weathercasters actually use average, but many use normal.
The charts make it obvious that there is no normal. Each line is different.
Living in the PNW for the last 50 years tells me that our ‘WEATHER’ is different every year, El Nino or not. Weather is generally delivered by the jet streams, which vary widely over years and are likely not influenced by El Nino. What IS true of El Nino, if you live near the east Pacific, is that the ocean influence is a little warmer on average, when the prevailing winds are from the coast. But all bets are off regarding snow and cold, as those are delivered by the jet stream.
Only normal I know of was a little cat in the old Garfield strip
There is the infamous Abbey Normal brain.
Climate is what we’re led to expect.
Weather is what we get.
Now THAT‘s normal.
Normal is one of those words that uses a common/social language context derived definition.
Generally means: what an individual anticipates, usually with a significant emotional content.
Normal definitely is not used as the statistical tool many of us understand.
Normal is a town in Illinois.
The recent HBO movie “Normal” was intertaining [think Pulp Fiction].
Or you could consider “normal” to be a very wide band of weather conditions..
.. the average being somewhere near the middle of that band.
Agreed. There is no “normal.”
While we’re on the subject of the gross misuse of words, departures from an arbitrary 30 year period are NOT “anomalies” either, since that suggests the meaningless 30 year period is, once again, a “normal” any departure from which is “unusual.”
There are no “problems” with the weather. One might say it’s like a box of chocolates – you never know what you’re gonna get. (Now where have I heard that before?)
I’m happy the starting Strong El Nino will not be too dynamic in the northern hemisphere. I first came to Mendoza, Argentina, in 1997 and the Strong El Nino of 1997-1998 was incredible. Strong thunderstorms every day, destructive hail storms, and rapid, but localized, flooding. I watched three young guys defy a line of vehicles and cross a flooding river, over a cement “baden”, and turn over and disappear in the raging water. I commonly got a beer and some chips and dip and sat outside on the patio watching the thunderstorms. South America is preparing for an unusually active summer, December through February. Wait for it.
A whole lot of people simply have no common sense and do the same kinds of things whenever something happens. The military needs that kind of thinking as otherwise nobody would charge the enemy under fire.
Severely wounded, facing the grim prospect of having his leg amputated by army medics, Dunbar [ later ‘Dances with Wolves’ ] chooses death in combat over losing his limb.
https://youtu.be/oK_wtjlQcns?si=T-jcCyAWhE4GQ_Lj
It depends on the culture. Indigenous Americans had the concept of “Its a good day to die.”
Is Cliff Mass deliberately spreading misinformation or what?
James Hansen coined that term and if he doesn’t represent the climate science world who does?
https://jimehansen.substack.com/p/super-duper-el-nino
Stop misinforming us by blaming the media for what squarely falls on Dr. James Hansen.
Hansen is not the leftist media. The media sells news and disinformation to make a buck and live the good life. They simply ran with it as it sounds more doom and gloom which is what sells.
Hansen directs the media by telling them what to say and how to say it.
Is there a reason you might think he isn’t a leftist like the media?
Who’s taken it upon himself to coach journalists about climate issues and the ‘Super’ El Niño?
AI Summary
columbia school of journalism media conference climate james hansen
The Columbia School of Journalism hosted a media conference featuring climate scientist James Hansen, focusing on the urgent need for climate action and the role of media in communicating these issues effectively. https://s.yimg.com/pv/static/img/default-favicon-202510291427.svgClimate Science, Awareness and Solutions
Conference HighlightsThe conference addressed critical climate communication strategies.
James Hansen’s Role — Hansen emphasized the importance of accurate climate reporting to raise public awareness about climate change.Media’s Responsibility — The conference highlighted how journalists can influence public perception and policy regarding climate issues.Urgency of Action — Hansen discussed the immediate threats posed by climate change, particularly sea level rise and extreme weather events.Collaborative Efforts — The event encouraged collaboration between scientists and journalists to improve climate communication.Dr. Hansen’s Communications
August 21: Super-Duper El Nino and the Bigger ProblemJuly 23: Beware Media Hype. Its Not The El Nino!June 12: Yes, 2026 is on Track to be the Hottest YearMay 22: PomeranceMay 7: ExxonApril 30: 2026 On Track For Warmest YearApril 15: Super-Duper El NinoMarch 30: Super El Nino? Super Warming is the Main Issue.March 6: Sophie’s Planet – Chapter 10: “Runaway Climate: The Point of No Return”
Obviously the media is taking their cues and talking points from James Hansen.
Cliff Mass could have been a lot more informed.
And we know how well Hansen’s predictions of sea level in New York City turned out. West Side Highway is still well above sea level.
His ‘prediction’ was based on 40 years of increase and a doubling of the CO2 (the premise of the question he was asked), since neither of those events have yet happened your statement is moot. Also the West Side Highway of 1988 no longer exists due to structural damage and repairs. In any case the West Side Highway as it exists today is regularly flooded as predicted, the most recent I recall was last october, check out the videos on Fox News!
This isn’t about Hansen’s failed predictions.
It’s about who is responsible and who isn’t for the “super” El Niño moniker.
It’s also obvious some people here can’t handle the truth.
“James Hansen coined that term and if he doesn’t represent the climate science world who does?”
James Hansen is the godfather of climate alarm. Cliff Mass is a real scientist following what the empirical data shows. Alarmists controlling the narratives is blatant propaganda.
If Cliff Mass is a ‘real’ scientist then so is James Hansen.
Note I am not defending him either.
Hansen represents the alarmist faction of climate science. What kind of objective scientist would arrive early at a Congressional meeting for testimony and open all the windows and turn the AC thermostat off on the typically hottest day of the year?
That’s history alright, but not the topic of my posts.
Evidently you didn’t disagree with my point that Hansen represents climate science.
The chart shows reduced rain and show in the north east and normal in the midwest so the news was right, drought and fires.
But…but…I thought it was gonna be a Godzilla El Nino.
Godzilla is too cute and not scary enough.
I remember ’82-83 very well. 70 Fahrenheit on Christmas day, and I canoed every day that year.
In That Windy City.
End of February was a bit much- caught me on my motorcycle when temps dropped below freezing.
Very nice Cliff.
“Surprisingly, there is nothing called a “Super El Nino” in the scientific world.”
Well… there are still bum cyclones. Especially in Los Angeles.
We should remember that, in their desperation, alarmists will use any sort of exaggeration, distortion, and outright falsehood to promote their agenda. So when we hear of the supposedly dire effects of El Ninos in general, we have examine the facts regarding what results these have had in earlier years before falling for any propaganda.
Whatever hyperbole they want to call the current drought is o.k. with me. Colorado hasn’t seen such a bone dry spring and summer since 1981, with farmers reducing crop acreage and ranchers selling off up to a third of their herds. Lawns across the Denver metro area browned under restricted schedules and snowpack was at record low for 40-some years.
On a personal level, we had no plums, pears, apricots or grapes this year in our yard – and only got a “normal” number of peaches (though smaller) because of a vigorous deep-watering regimen.
It’s not hard to conceive of a multi-year drought of this severity causing an entire civilization of natives to abandon their traditional homes and lite out for lands with more clement weather conditions. Such was Colorado’s SW corner in the Medieval Warm Period. Flights to Continental Europe were limited.
verroa mite?
I’m seeing a pickup in rain as we head toward fall. I even had to come inside to get away from mosquitos this evening. I’m outside Boulder. 2012 was worse where I’m at in my opinion. Also, no water restrictions here.
Fingers crossed for abundant snow this winter.
Looks to me like there are good years and bad years. Who would have guessed?
Then there are exceptionally low years. Who would have guessed?
It’s raining here in Wheat Ridge also – and we’re loving it. But the late monsoons will not save a lot of crops that needed the moisture in spring. It was mid-July before the monsoon rains got serious – apparently too late for tens of thousands of acres of wheat farms and ranches east of us where harvests of < 50% of average are predicted. Grassland for cattle was stunted by late spring. And early on, the water police who govern distribution of the South Platte, Saint Vrain, Left Hand, and Cache le Poudre Rivers honored senior “calls” on plains water by shutting the head gates to the junior shareholders. Branches of the aquifer are governed by the same seniority systems that apply to the streams and ditches and rivers above them. Low soil moisture content imparts a negative inertia to plants that lasts into the next growing season. Soils take time to recuperate. NOAA drought maps indicate 90% of the state is in some form of distress. The drought in 80% of Colorado is considered severe, extreme or exceptional.
I understand the promise of La Nina for this winter – and like you, hope that he delivers.
1977 was the year the Steamboat Springs ski resort had to resort to the local residents shoveling snow out of the trees and onto the ski runs in order to operate in a minimal way (way before snow making).