Essay by Eric Worrall
h/t Gregory Woods; Are you or have you ever been affected by a climate disaster?
The strange and persistent psychological distance between us and climate disaster
An analysis of dozens of previously published studies reveals people systematically underestimate their own vulnerability to climate threats.
By Sarah DeWeerdt
March 10, 2026Most people think climate change will primarily affect other people, a new analysis of previously published research reveals.
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“Many people may ask themselves: how likely is it that I will suffer the consequences of extreme weather events compared to others?” says study team member Magnus Bergquist, a psychologist at Gothenburg University in Sweden. “What we found was that the vast majority of people, worldwide, expect that others are more likely to suffer from such consequences than themselves.”
Bergquist and his collaborators conducted a meta-analysis of 83 studies involving a total of more than 70,000 people from 17 countries who were surveyed about their perceptions of climate-related risks faced by themselves and other people.
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Still, the framing of these questions matters. People are more likely to say their climate risk is lower than that of others when the context is a broad comparison with fellow citizens of their country or with humanity as a whole. The tendency towards overoptimism less pronounced when people compare their own risk to that of specific others, such as neighbors or people in their city.
Read more: https://www.anthropocenemagazine.org/2026/03/the-strange-and-persistent-psychological-distance-between-us-and-climate-disaster/
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The abstract of the study;
- Article
- Open access
- Published: 08 January 2026
Meta-analytical evidence of a self–other discrepancy in climate change-related risk perceptions
Nature Sustainability (2026)Cite this article
Abstract
In mitigating and adapting to climate change-related risks, unbiased risk assessments are essential. Yet individuals systematically rate their personal risks as lower than those of others, believing themselves to be less at risk than others (that is, a self–other discrepancy). In a preregistered multi-level meta-analysis, we estimate the overall effect and boundary conditions for a self–other discrepancy in climate change-related risk perceptions. The synthesis incorporated 60 datasets, comprising 83 effect sizes from 70,337 participants across 17 countries. Results revealed that in 81 of 83 datasets, participants perceived their personal climate change-related risks as lower than others (d = −0.54, 95% CI [−0.68, −0.39]). This skewness was robust across specific extreme weather-related hazards and general climate change-related risks. Notably, the self–other discrepancy was less pronounced when comparisons involved specific others (for example, neighbours) or high-risk regions (for example, Asia), and more pronounced when the referents were compatriots or humanity as a whole or when the context was low-risk regions (for example, Europe). These results highlight a critical implication for the general public and a challenge for risk communicators: a widespread misperception, where people perceive personal climate change-related risks as lower than others, may hinder public engagement in mitigation and adaptation efforts.
Read more: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-025-01717-3
The study authors offered three hypothesis to explain this cognitive bias, and concluded the data supported all three hypothesis;
From the main study;
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Hypothesis 1
Personal climate change-related risks will be perceived as less likely and/or severe than others’ risks.
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Hypothesis 2
Climate change-related risk perceptions will be less skewed when individuals compare themselves with specific referents rather than with general referents.
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Hypothesis 3
Samples from world regions with a relatively higher level of objective climate change-related risk will exhibit a smaller self–other discrepancy than samples from regions with a relatively lower level of objective climate change-related risk.
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Read more: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-025-01717-3
There is a fairly obvious fourth hypothesis which the study authors overlooked.
Hypothesis 4
Claims we are in the midst of a climate crisis are overblown hype. People quite reasonably conclude their personal climate risk is negligible, based on a lack of bad things happening in their neighbourhood, but because of 24×7 sensationalised news coverage of weather disasters elsewhere in the world, conclude that other people are suffering the ravages of climate change.
Of course including this hypothesis might have made the study a little difficult to publish in “Nature Sustainability”, and it may not be a possibility the authors themselves considered. You’re welcome study authors.
Are you or have you ever been affected by a climate disaster?
i once trod in a puddle.
“On this doll, can you show us where climate disaster touched you?”
Theyt could have just looked at this graph and be done with it.