Essay by Eric Worrall
“… Rising electricity demand from data centers drives both the quantity and price of geothermal installations. …”
Guosheng Securities: Rising electricity demand in data centers drives both volume and price increases for geothermal energy.
Zhitong Finance· Jan 20 16:53
Trump’s requirement for U.S. tech giants to assume responsibility for their data center electricity needs may catalyze demand for off-grid power systems in U.S. data centers.
According to Zhitong Finance APP, Guosheng Securities issued a research report stating that recently, Trump’s requirement for U.S. technology giants to self-finance the power supply of their data centers may catalyze the construction demand for off-grid power systems in U.S. data centers. In terms of geothermal installed capacity potential, the global geothermal potential is approximately 162GW, nearly 10 times the current installed capacity, with the U.S. and Asia (mainly Indonesia) having a potential geothermal scale of about 35.0GW/74.3GW. Currently, Meta (META.US) and Google (GOOGL.US) have deployed several hundred MW-level geothermal power projects, while the next-generation enhanced geothermal technology broadens the application scenarios for geothermal energy. The price of geothermal power purchase agreements for AI data centers has risen to 100 USD/MWh, representing an increase of over 45% compared to 2024.
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U.S. Geothermal: Rising electricity demand from data centers drives both the quantity and price of geothermal installations.
Quantity: Meta and Google have deployed several hundred MW-level geothermal power projects, while next-generation enhanced geothermal system (EGS) technology expands the applicable scenarios for geothermal energy. 1) Meta: In 2024, Meta signed a 150MW geothermal power purchase agreement with Sage Geosystems, with the first phase expected to come online by 2027. In June 2025, Meta signed another 150MW geothermal power purchase agreement with XGS Energy to secure power for its New Mexico data center, with completion expected by 2030.
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Read more: https://news.futunn.com/en/post/67614290/guosheng-securities-rising-electricity-demand-in-data-centers-drives-both
Paying Chinese companies to drill deep and pump water into active geological zones on the US West Coast. What could possibly go wrong?
Quite a lot potentially.
The 1700 Cascadia Megathrust Earthquake and the Future of Cascadia Margin
The 1700 tsunami that impacted the Puget sound region was triggered by a megathrust earthquake off the coast of northern California, Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia on the so-called Cascadia margin. The event happened on the evening of January 26th as documented in Japanese historic records. In Japan, the event was called an “orphan” tsunami because the earthquake was so far away it was not felt. … These trees were killed by a tsunami in 1700 when the elevation of the land fell, and they were completely inundated and then buried by sand. Large storms eroded the sand from the trees and exposed them. They remain as evidence of the huge tsunami more than 300 years ago.
Oral accounts from indigenous Native American and First Nation tribes living on the coast of Vancouver Island in Canada that have been passed down from generation to generation tell of an earthquake and tsunami on a winter’s evening. … the only survivors were those people who lived 75 feet above the waterline. So the tsunami must have been massive!
Subsidence and tsunami records suggest that the earthquake was in the range of a magnitude 8.7-9.2 on the Richter scale. So what is a megathrust earthquake? It’s a very powerful quake usually close to or greater than a magnitude 9. These quakes occur at subduction zones where one plate is thrust under the other. … In the 2004 Indian Ocean event, an area 180 km wide and 1000 km long moved up by 30 meters! In the 2011 Tohoku event, an area 200 km long by 500 km wide moved up by 20 meters!
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Such a disaster will happen along the Cascadia margin at some time in the future. …
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Read more: https://courses.ems.psu.edu/earth107/node/1614
I think you can tell I’m not a fan of poking holes in unstable geological zones and pumping in water.
To be fair some designs are “closed loop”, where the water circulates through pipes and is never supposed to come directly into contact with the hot rocks. But I remember when I used to help my uncle maintain his old concrete block condominium building. It only takes a small movement in concrete and presumably also in unstable hot geothermal stone to crush or break even the most flexible embedded water pipes.
How dangerous is geothermal? I don’t know. I doubt anyone knows. But let’s hope the new rush to Geothermal doesn’t turn into a real life version of the movie “How it ends”, that nobody finds out the hard way that the rushed installation of lots of Chinese built geothermal plants in unstable Ring of Fire geological zones on the US West Coast was a bad idea.
Before anyone suggests that regulatory oversight and engineering would prevent any unsafe geothermal installations, Chinese companies have a troubling track record of putting profits ahead of engineering integrity and safety, when it comes to big money energy projects.
I hope that at least some of the promise of AI can come to pass…but it’s not there yet. I asked a question about energy production in the UK and how it has declined since 1999. Here below are the first and last sentences a browser’s AI gave me, without any further prompting on my part:
“No, Great Britain’s energy production is not just one-third of what it was in 1999.”
“Overall, Great Britain’s energy production is indeed about one-third of what it was in 1999, reflecting a broader trend towards sustainability and reduced reliance on fossil fuels.”
It’s not just “garbage in, garbage out” – it’s completely untrustworthy.
It’s always important to note which “AI” you asked.
There’s a bunch of geologists on this forum, should be interesting comments.
Lots of nasty chemicals produced by these wells.
See the California Geysers experience.
And New Zealand subsidence.
For what it’s worth, many of the heat transfer fluids used are petroleum or natural gas derived.
Nope. More of the same climate scam hustle. It’s not the earthquakes; it’s the poison fumes. Drilling into Hades has consequences. And the water used. Nat gas and nuclear boilers control the water usage. Holes into the mantle do not and cannot.
Only suckers will invest in this fake Chinese loser. Of course, one is born every minute. Add to that our problem today is that our money is invested by lunatic government flunkies on the take who couldn’t care less what happens to it.
So you are against fracking too?
Sophistry.
“ drill deep and pump water into active geological zones on the US West Coast. What could possibly go wrong?” Exactly the same things that could go wrong with fracking. Only instead of pumping in a mix of toxic chemicals people are only pumping in water. I know which I would prefer.
Fracking for petroleum involves drilling into petroleum deposits, not active volcanoes.
It has been a long time ago, but I did an internship with the Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries and helped a little bit with a study on the geothermal potential of the Newberry Caldera in Central Oregon (noted as the 1981 USGS Study below). At the time it was told to me that the Sierra Club opposed the development of a geothermal generating plant because it was located in a wilderness area. They preferred the natural gas plants in the Willamette Valley in more developed area.
Here is a brief summary of the ongoing interest in the area because there is lots of heat close to the surface and there are other natural hot springs in the area. High mineral content is one of the concerns for developing the area as well, but “hot rocks” or fracking style of geothermal production might be possible. The caldera is more the 100 miles from the coast so subduction zone earthquakes and tsunamis would not be a concern.
Mining and geothermal energy
Because Newberry has had recent eruptive activity, has remained active for a long time, and has a shallow heat source feeding hot springs, it represents a source of geothermal energy. An investigation conducted by the United States Geological Survey in 1981 drilled a well 3,057 feet (932 m) in depth at a location to the east of the Big Obsidian flow, finding temperatures of 509 °F (265 °C) under the surface there. An energy company drilled two holes with a depth of 10,000 feet (3,000 m) in 1995 and 1996, but they were unable to find fluids, so they lacked a mechanism to drive turbines and opted to end the project at Newberry. According to many scientists, Newberry Volcano represents the best geothermal energy candidate in the Pacific Northwest;[54] in 2012, a deep well was built to determine whether water directed into the hole might be heated and returned to the surface in order to yield energy.[100].
here is an update on geothermal development in Oregon from Oregon Public Broadcasting: Focus is still on the Newberry volcano area.
https://www.opb.org/article/2025/10/06/super-hot-rocks-geothermal-technology-renewable-energy-three-rivers-mazama/
Born and raised Oregonian, visited Newberry Crater and it’s a lovely area, Geothermal though? They keep pouring money into and not getting very far into making it commercially viable. I’m not going to hold my breath while waiting.
I do have to say those of us living in the PNW do need to keep a skeptical eye out on anything that might impact the Cascadia subduction zone. Reports on what likely will happen does not paint a pretty picture. Everything west of the I5 corridor basically wiped clean, all the big dams are east of I5 and if those dam goes goodbye most of Oregon’s population in one giant flood (can’t say as I would miss Portland). Coastal region not wiped out by a tsunami will be unreachable by car/truck possible for up to a year. Not many roads through the coast range and those that are frequently get blocked by landslides (Coast range isn’t stable) so they’ll be wiped out.
I would have to look at the exact numbers but roughly 80% of Oregon’s population lives between Eugene and Portland (about half live int he greater Portland area) along the I5 corridor and that area is fairly flat. Just the Willamette River alone busting it’s damn will wipe out a lot of the population. If the dams on the Columbia River break Portland is gone. Columbia potentially can back up the Willamette enough to flood it out as per what happened during the Missoula Floods.
As an aside I highly recommend reading or watching documentaries on the Missoula Floods if you have any interest in ancient history or geology. It’s fascinating what mother nature can do to reshape the land.
Even though at 10km depth, temperatures may reach 250 C – 900 C or so, there is a physical constraint to how much energy can be withdrawn.
Removing energy from hot rock results in the rock cooling – remove it from the rock faster than it gets replaced, and the rock can reach and maintain temperature of 3 C or so.
Nature does this all the time. The ocean at a depth of 10 k is around 3 C. The surrounding rock is 250 C, but is held at the same temperature as the water, which absorbs energy from the hot rock faster than it can be replaced. The water warms and ascends, being replaced by cooler denser water. The cooled rock is warmed by more distant or deeper rock, warms water and cools itself in the process – and on it goes!
Drilling a deep hole into 250 C hot rock, then pumping cold water in and getting hot water out (in the form of steam, say) works wonderfully well – for a while. Your cold water cools the rock, being heated by radiation from the rock, the rock’s temperature falling as a result.
Given very particular geological circumstances, geothermal energy extraction works well. New Zealand and Iceland utilise geothermal energy production to a large degree to satisfy a large proportion of their total energy use. Unfortunately, earthquakes and volcanoes are associated with conditions which favour geothermal energy.
No free lunches.
The US government believes its PR fantasy, and proclaims –
which is true, but completely misleading, for the reasons given above.
As Feynman said “For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled.”
For sure, but advocates are claiming recent breakthroughs have made geothermal economically viable. Not sure whether to believe them.
There seems to be serious interest in building a Yellowstone data center, perhaps they will drill big holes in the Yellowstone supervolcano caldera to power their data center.
https://montanafreepress.org/2025/07/31/northwestern-energy-inks-power-agreement-with-an-ai-data-center-planned-for-yellowstone-county/
Eric, until demonstrated otherwise, widespread geothermal energy is about as likely as widespread tidal power. Colour me unconvinced.
Tapping Yellowstone seems reasonable, except there are substantial legal impediments at present. To be honest, I wouldn’t be totally surprised if large scale AI turned out to be a bit of a dead end.
At least one AI company is trying to make money by selling advertising. Probably aiming at the same target audience as the advertisers on WUWT. Probably going to be difficult to recoup hundreds of billions of dollars, if that’s the case.
The future will be very interesting.
You mean like that advertisement showing a 90+ year old woman taking a product that’ll make here look 40? And here I was going to recommend it to some elders. 🙂
I never understood the point of the ‘targeted’ advertising that I usually see. I research and buy a chainsaw. In the following weeks, I see ad after ad about chainsaws. Idjits – I already bought one!
Besides, I’m of an age that remembers that 99% of ads go to a casino site, or porn site, or site that will hack your computer. I still never click on any ads.
Unanticipated, unintended consequences.
Yellowstone is classified as a super volcano.
We cannot know in advance if drilling for geothermal energy production will weaken the caldera and precipitate a massive eruption or other volcanism.
A capitalist might ask: If geothermal is a good solution to the problem, then why are existing utilities not doing it?
I guess the targets of investment scams don’t know flip about sulfur dioxide, arsenic, hard water deposits, and water scarcity.
I see two red flags, China and geothermal. I see no reason to believe China and if geothermal had true potential our own people would already be on it.
Unless you assume the Chinese are less intelligent than “our own people”, the fact that the Chinese population is several times larger, might indicate that they have several times as many exceptional individuals.
Do you agree?
Let me clarify. When I referred to China I was referring to the government of China. I have no doubt that there are many very smart people in China, that has nothing to do with what the government of China says. Government is necessary it would be chaos without it. But governments are too powerful and many times destructive to be given a pass by the rest of us. We know that the communist Chinese government has committed unspeakable atrocities on their own people not just outsiders so yes they are at the top of the heap for people not to believe.
That doesn’t really make much sense, either. Do you think that the Chinese government doesn’t support its “best and brightest”? Assuming that the US form of government is superior to all others is a bit naive.
Or are you thinking that the Chinese people are idiots for choosing their form of government? The Chinese have a few thousand years of experience with governments of all sorts. The Chinese civil war of 1934-35 wound up with the Communists recovering from almost total military obliteration (only about 8000 survived the “long march”, from an initial 100,000). They won over the rest of the population – obviously from a position of military weakness.
If you want to discuss the US government murdering its own citizens without benefit of trial, slaughtering survivors of military strikes on boats in international waters, massacring unarmed men, women, and children without mercy, be my guest.<g>
Good fences make good neighbours, I don’t support everything my government does, but I wouldn’t blame them for objecting to other governments offering unsolicited advice.
So let me clarify – I support everything and nothing, and I am opposed to everything and nothing – depending on circumstances.
If facts change, I change my views. You probably do, as well.
“If you want to discuss the US government murdering its own citizens without benefit of trial, slaughtering survivors of military strikes on boats in international waters, massacring unarmed men, women, and children without mercy, be my guest.<g>”
I guess you didn’t have enough facts for all these assertions.
It’s not a bad setup for a scam operation if they think a Dem administration will arrive to splash money in all directions at fake projects. Call it fraud prospecting. It’s the energy equivalent of Minnesota fraud services.
I think we should entertain the possibility that the piece in Zhitong Finance was written by Grok.
So we finally drop the pretense that geothermal is fine. It’s useful when it can be played against wind and solar, but as soon as it cuts into fossil fuel interests…
I guess the fairy tale of the nuclear renaissance XXII will go next.
They will be best friends with US Shale.
The Cleanup Bill for the Fracking Boom is Already Here
Filling the Hole: A Federal Solution to Cleaning Up America’s Orphaned and Abandoned Oil and Gas Wells
If you are as opposed to hydrocarbons as your posts lead us to believe, then stop using your computer.
Better yet, stop breathing.
Live the lividity that sprouts instantly when extractors are aksed to do so the way they said they would. The predictable retreat into How Dare You. You Use Hydrocarbons So Let’s Give The Extractors Unlimited Ben Dovers.
Sorry SN, MUR would just rather have them live up to their – freely assumed – asset retirement obligations. If they did, it would decidedly tip the scales on any proper fossil fuel v renewable cradle to grave incremental LCOE/IRR contest. Yes, even if the relatively tiny green start up helps were jetted.
Good find, MUR. I lasted all of a month as EQT Completions Manager. I’ve seen oilfield trash cans from the FSU to Yemen, but was never complicit. However, at EQT I would have been contributing to the blight they visited upon whole counties in West Virginia. I quit in time to be able to leave it off of my PDR…
In common with many things, I wonder how good some of the enthusiasts of geothermal are at proportion. The energy is there but to extract large amounts of energy requires large flow. To drill and install, relative to flow, means high cost and are there not more economical ways to reliably generate the required electricity?
Fundamental questions.
The earth holds vast amounts of geothermal energy.
The question is, what happens to the planet when we start extracting a measurable percentage of that energy?
What happens to the planetary balance if the massive extraction accomplished in one part of the planet is not balanced by massive extraction on the opposite side of the planet.
We know the massive hydroelectric project in China altered the planetary rotation speed. Not much, but measurable. Other dams have also had an impact; minor, but measurable.
It’s not a question of what we know we don’t know.
The risk comes from what we do not know we don’t know.
The point is, as we conduct these geothermal experiments, we must measure any global effects.
It may turn out that there is no cause for alarm, but we should probably determine that before we embark on potentially planetary altering projects.
Sparta, it’s worse than you thought!
There is no minimum disturbance to a chaotic system which may result in completely unforeseen outcomes. What happens? God knows, seriously. Einstein believed that “God does not play at dice”, others disagreed (like Heisenberg), and I also think Einstein was wrong.
Life is interesting.
No, my friend. It is not worse than I thought.
It is worse than my moderated post would lead one to conclude.
Why moderated? I did not with to trigger a flame war.
One potential that occurred to me is altering the earth’s magnetic field. The would be harmful if not leading to the extinction of all life on the planet.
Another potential that occurred to me is radical shifts in plate tectonics leading to massive volcanism, tsunamis, and radical changes to weather and, yes, climate.
It could have results on a global scale akin to what Net Zero is inflicting on UK.
Frankly I think the scale would make any real bad effects unmeasurable/unnoticeable. How much water would you have to suck out of the oceans for it to be measurable?
It’s possible that there has been some improvements to geothermal energy production lately, but my M.Sc. degree work in the Mid 1970s was all about simulating heat transfer through permeable rock and fault controlled hydraulics in hopes of making power plants. It only made sense to promote it back when people thought we were running out of energy, period.
Much of geothermal energy is simply mining heat from rock. Rock is generally a poor conductor of heat, so one quickly exhausts the useful heat flow rate in the system which is unable to replenish its original heat (and temperature) at a rate consistent with power production.
For those impressed by the statement that this heat comes from radioactive decay within the Earth, please consider that average heat flow in this case is about 60-100 mW (yes milliwatts) per square meter — low density wind energy looks like Spindletop at its prime in comparison.
Most hot springs on the planet are the result of slightly deeper than normal subsurface flow on range bounding faults or tectonic province boundaries. These systems mine heat over a large region, and the flow to the surface hot spring expression is nearly isothermal. So, the reservoir temperature is not greatly hotter than what one measures at the surface. An exception may occur with surface expressions like geysers or fumeroles, but these are unusual.
Low temperature heat, which is what geothermal generally produces, provides very little work-producing availability.
Now there are places where geothermal does provide some useful power. The Geysers is an example, Iceland, New Zealand, various island arcs etc. And a few odd heat transfer systems, like Beowawe, Nevada appear here and there; but the power plant at Beowawe is a whopping 17MW plant. Even the sprawling Geysers faculty produces only about 700MW over an area of 45 square miles.
In the current hysteria over CO2 I see many of the schemes of the mid 1970s repeated again. If they’d been viable we’d have seen many of them perfected over the past half-century.