China Threat Calls for Ideologically Free Energy Policy

By Vijay Jayaraj

Whether China’s threat to restrict export of rare earth minerals materializes or is resolved through trade negotiations, the episode underscores the fragility of U.S. supply chains and the importance of developing domestic sources.

Nowhere is this more evident than in the energy sector where climate policies have made dozens of countries more reliant on imports than ever before. Adherence to climate orthodoxy has repeatedly exposed countries to avoidable risks, each instance demonstrating the cost of subordinating real-world utility to the pseudoscience of theoretical models and the grifting of special interests.

The reshuffling of the global flow of oil and coal after 2022 exposed the foolishness of the anti-fossil fuel agenda. European nations, led by Germany and the U.K., embarked on aggressive phaseouts of fossil fuels, dismantling coal plants and shrinking domestic natural gas output in favor of wind and solar. Domestic production of hydrocarbons collapsed, and reliance on imported energy spiked, particularly for the Germans and British.

As Europe turned away from Russian coal, it rushed to buy that fuel from the U.S., Qatar and Africa, often at much higher prices. Coal that Germany once imported from Russia was replaced with fuel shipped from more distant locations, undermining supposed “carbon savings” of its climate policy. When Russia’s gas pipeline became a casualty of war, Europe found itself reliant on LNG (liquefied natural gas) shipments from the U.S. at double the cost.

Bureaucratic obstacles to restarting coal- and gas-fired power plants further magnified shortages, driving up costs for manufacturing and household heating. Energy-intensive sectors — steel, aluminum, fertilizers — either shut down or relocated to countries with more reliable and affordable electricity, among them the U.S. and India.

In the United States, federal climate-centered policies presented new bottlenecks. The Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act poured billions into “renewables” and imposed restrictions on offshore drilling and pipeline construction. Supply chain resilience was undermined by the ideological sidelining of cheap, abundant fuels.

Why does a nation willingly trade resilient domestic energy for unreliable sources that are bound to fall short of their citizens’ daily needs and fail disastrously during a crisis? How can policymakers justify burdening entire industries with inflated energy costs to satisfy “net zero” policies based on wishful thinking and vacuous rhetoric? For some, the answer is ideological purity and muddled thinking, and for others, a cynical grab for power and money.

Every megawatt of domestic energy production mothballed in pursuit of climate targets is a future vulnerability that materializes not in white papers but in tangible hardships for people.

Countries with rigid “green” energy mandates fared worst during disruptions; those with diversified, fossil-based power grids bounced back faster.

Countries that continued investing in fossil fuels — such as India and Indonesia — did far better. As Europe suffered under the high cost of electricity, India accelerated coal production, expanded refinery capacity and signed long-term LNG deals. Indonesia leveraged its coal and oil resources to stabilize domestic power and shield consumers from global volatility.

These are examples proving energy pragmatism, not ideology, safeguards national interests. The failure of the “net zero” experiment lies in its detachment from physical reality. Fossil fuels remain the foundation of modern civilization — powering transport, agriculture, defense, manufacturing, digital technology and more.

Governments must repeal the labyrinth of regulations that stifle domestic oil and gas exploration and coal mining. They must fast-track the approval of pipelines, refineries and LNG export terminals. They must end the colossal subsidies that prop up unreliable technologies and allow energy sources to compete on cost and reliability.

Investment should be directed toward developing advanced fossil fuel technologies, such as high-efficiency, low-emission coal plants, which can provide clean power without sacrificing reliability. Simultaneously, irrational regulation of nuclear power must be replaced with a clear-eyed view of that technology’s enormous benefits and manageable risks.

Ultimately, energy independence is not merely an economic issue; it is the bedrock of national sovereignty. A nation that cannot power its homes, fuel its industries, and move its military is not independent. It is a nation at the mercy of others. In an era of escalating great-power competition, outsourcing energy security is an act of unilateral disarmament.

This commentary was first published by The Daily Signal on October 22, 2025.

Vijay Jayaraj is a Science and Research Associate at the CO₂ Coalition, Fairfax, Virginia. He holds an M.S. in environmental sciences from the University of East Anglia and a postgraduate degree in energy management from Robert Gordon University, both in the U.K., and a bachelor’s in engineering from Anna University, India.

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Tonyx
October 23, 2025 6:35 pm

As China is/was dependent on foreign sources for much of their energy, how are they coping. By installing about 80% of new growth as wind and solar. Why would you do anything else as they are the cheapest forms of energy?. No new nuclear sites for a while, and coal is mostly replacing exiting old plants. Most of the world is also relying on wind and solar to grow, or replace existing fossil fuel plants. Need I point out that renewable heavy China is the worlds workshop. No new fossil fuel sources needed. Some gas will be needed for a while, maybe 5%, but that’s really all. China has plenty of coal.
https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/09/China-Energy-Transition-Review-2025.pdf
https://climateenergyfinance.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Monthly-China-Energy-Update-22-April-2025-.pdf

Michael Flynn
Reply to  Tonyx
October 23, 2025 7:01 pm

coal is mostly replacing exiting old plants

Maybe wishful thinking?

The country began building 94.5 gigawatts (GW) of new coal-power capacity and resumed 3.3GW of suspended projects in 2024, the highest level of construction in the past 10 years, according to the two thinktanks. 

As to nuclear –

In the past 10 years, more than 34 gigawatts (GW) of nuclear power capacity were added in China, bringing the country’s number of operating nuclear reactors to 55 with a total net capacity of 53.2 GW as of April 2024. An additional 23 reactors are under construction in China. – US Gov.

Not that it makes any difference, really. Maybe they are, maybe they aren’t. History will tell.

Tonyx
Reply to  Michael Flynn
October 23, 2025 8:15 pm

I don’t know where you get your figures from, the first quarter figures are these: Also, China is now 56% renewable (Wind, Hydro, Solar)
Jan – March additions of Power- Thermal power 9.6GW, Solar 60GW. Hydro 2.1GW, Nuclear 0, WInd 14.6GW. New additions are, as mentioned, about 80% Wind and Solar. China installed more solar over the last year than the rest of the world combined

https://climateenergyfinance.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Monthly-China-Energy-Update-22-April-2025-.pdf

Scarecrow Repair
Reply to  Tonyx
October 23, 2025 8:48 pm

China has four times the US population. Quote that installed solar capacity as per capita and it might mean something. Obfuscations like yours usually indicate something to hide.

leefor
Reply to  Tonyx
October 23, 2025 8:53 pm

Perhaps you should look at Figure 2 of your reference,

You should also be aware of nameplate capacity v generation.

And see this –

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/primary-sub-energy-source?tab=chart&country=~CHN

Reply to  Tonyx
October 23, 2025 9:23 pm

Installed capacity of wind and solar is meaningless.

Nuclear and coal can operate at 100% design capacity for months at a time.

Wind and solar, especially in winter, are lucky to get 20%

According to energy produced, wind and solar is … not very much. !

China-Energy-consumption
Reply to  Tonyx
October 23, 2025 9:54 pm

grabbed 2022 graph accidentally.

Here is energy consumption for China TO END OF 2024.

Wind and solar still… not very much

China-energy
JTraynor
Reply to  bnice2000
October 24, 2025 3:57 pm

I don’t think solar gets to 20% in winter north of Tennessee. Much less. Not a good choice if you live in the northern hemisphere and not in a desert.

Michael Flynn
Reply to  Tonyx
October 23, 2025 10:21 pm

I don’t know where you get your figures from . . .

And you aren’t prepared to challenge them, either, are you?

JTraynor
Reply to  Tonyx
October 24, 2025 12:04 am

Interesting how so much wind and solar is being installed all over the world yet CO2 concentrations continue to rise at the same rate they always have. Check your sources, and your math. China gets 60-70% of their energy from FF. And the curve is not bending down in a noticeable way. Add diesel for heavy equipment and that figure goes up.

Also understand that any renewables in the mix are required not for CO2 reductions. They don’t have the natural resources in oil and gas that others do. This is why they import quite a bit from others. Coal from Australia. Oil and gas from Middle East and Russia.

Their GDP is less than the U.S. yet they have 4x the population. If they hope to continue to improve their standard of living they will need huge quantities of energy and wind and solar ain’t it.

Reply to  JTraynor
October 24, 2025 3:44 pm

CO2 concentrations continue to rise at the same rate they always have.”

Actually, the rate of CO2 increase is accelerating slightly. 🙂

JTraynor
Reply to  bnice2000
October 24, 2025 4:03 pm

I didn’t see that stat. Makes a stronger case that the net zero rigmarole has achieved absolutely nothing other than redistributing wealth from the have nots to the haves, and entrenching government bureaucrats and the institutions they protect.

Leon de Boer
Reply to  Tonyx
October 24, 2025 5:19 am

Always love stupid stories like that crap you linked 🙂

Hydro is 50% of the renewables and now we are suddenly calling Hydro renewable and wait we pretend it’s going to continue growing.

Oh wait perhaps they can by destroying yet another eco system
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jul/21/china-starts-building-world-biggest-hydropower-dam-yarlung-tsangpo-river-tibet

China doesn’t really have an EPA or care about that sort of thing and it’s amazing what you can do without red tape. The fact you think China is doing great is actually funny.

One has to destroy the world to save it 🙂

We don’t have many big rivers in Australia but screw it lets dam the Murray as our commitment to renewable energy … what could go wrong.

I love comedy gold and watching slow moving train crashes .. got popcorn?

MarkW
Reply to  Tonyx
October 24, 2025 8:08 am

Looks like you are comparing faceplate power to faceplate power. Not power generated.

Reply to  Tonyx
October 23, 2025 9:21 pm

China is only now getting into the low 20% for power from WDGs. Still 60% coming from essential generation – coal and gas plus a bit more from nuclear. .

They are now getting into the hard bit where the WDGs hit their wall. That happened in South Australia in 2016. They now get 72% from WDGs but rooftop and batteries are taking over as the population seeks respite from the ever increasing cost – probably only possible in Australia due to the size of houses and suburban blocks.
https://explore.openelectricity.org.au/energy/sa1/?range=1d&interval=30m&view=discrete-time&group=Detailed

Grid solar is now a stranded asset in South Australia and it is heading the same way for both solar and wind across the country as rooftops take over. South Australia often gets 100% of its internal demand from rooftops through the middle of the day. As people take their demand away, the wholesale demand is falling and grid prices skyrocketing.

China will get stuck at less than 30% wind and solar until batteries become viable,

And capacity has little relationship to energy produced as Australian grid proponents are finding out. Now matter how much capacity they build they cannot stuff more power into the grid because homeowners are removing their demand.

Australia’s grid is stuffed. China will stop adding WDGs before they harm their grid. They might end up with battery technology that makes solar competitive with coal but some distance to go yet.

Tonyx
Reply to  RickWill
October 24, 2025 12:06 am

“Grid solar is now a stranded asset in South Australia and it is heading the same way for both solar and wind across the country as rooftops take over. South Australia often gets 100% of its internal demand from rooftops through the middle of the day. As people take their demand away, the wholesale demand is falling and grid prices skyrocketing.”

Which is why S.A. is constructing gigawatt hours of battery storage. You perhaps forget that SA is connected to other states, who are happy to use the excess solar power. A red light comes on just outside my door when solar is being curtailed. (Ie, not used on the grid) its a few hours per summer. There are no “stranded assets” In any case, there is little grid solar in S.A. its mostly rooftop, and consumed in situ.

Reply to  Tonyx
October 24, 2025 12:02 pm

It is the connection to other states that regularly saves them from blackouts.

The amount they export is a pittance compared to the demand in the other states.

SA is more like a parasite on the NEM

And no, it is not roof-top solar that gets curtailed when nobody wants the excess power generated, it is grid wind and solar.

You obviously haven’t understood what Rick is telling you at all. !

Petey Bird
Reply to  Tonyx
October 25, 2025 9:20 am

Ah, yes, the mythical battery salvation is on the way. How much redundancy is required to cover seasonal variations and longer weather events? A dead battery cannot supply demand.

Reply to  Tonyx
October 23, 2025 9:25 pm

 No new nuclear sites for a while ????

Wow.. so far WRONG its ridiculous.

China now has an operation peddle bed reactor hooked up to the commercial grid.

And they are using the same modular design to build one 3 times the size.

Once the have “proven” that one.. many more will follow.

What the REALLY don’t need is wind and solar.

Colin Belshaw
Reply to  Tonyx
October 24, 2025 4:33 am

Nothing quite like complete and utter nonsense . . . IS THERE!!
In 2023, China produced 4.6 BILLION tonnes of coal from its domestic mining operations and imported an additional 475 million tonnes.
And in 2024, it produced 4.8 BILLION tonnes of coal and imported 543 million tonnes.
Furthermore, China’s coal-fired generation capacity is now 1,150GW, and they have a further 370GW under construction and permitted for construction (bearing in mind the UK’s total generation capacity from all sources is 100GW).
What this means – if you’re a CO2 catastrophist – is that it doesn’t matter a damn what China is doing with renewables when their use of coal continues to expand, not least in producing the refined metals and minerals required for ALL so-called renewable equipment – they totally dominate global production of these – and in producing 85% of global polysilicon and battery cells, as well as over 80% of global wind turbines and solar panels.
So, may I suggest that . . . WISHFULL THINKING IS A COMPLETE AND UTTER WASTE OF TIME, as is relying upon information provided by wishful thinking people.

MiloCrabtree
Reply to  Tonyx
October 24, 2025 8:35 am

I always hesitate to use the word retard. But in this case, it is clearly warranted.

Petey Bird
Reply to  Tonyx
October 25, 2025 8:51 am

I keep reading these type of reports. Has China developed a technology that makes wind and solar able to supply load demand?? Or are they just building plant to produce useless energy for political reasons?

mleskovarsocalrrcom
October 23, 2025 7:29 pm

Yes, and that’s part of the ‘plan’ leading us to One World Government as the world savior.

October 23, 2025 8:59 pm

I was taking a look at the U9 today:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TZsK1yhUy8Q

The extreme variant comes with 3000HP and gets very close to 500kph. Not a steal at USD280k but a lot of capability for the money.

It made me think that the CO2 obsessed world is giving China a free pass on technological development.

Australian engineers and scientists are buried in green and red tape, China is getting on and building stuff.

I doubt Australia will ever recover the capacity to manufacture motor vehicles. Maybe Australia will buy an AI controlled factory from China that is able to design and build motor vehicles.

Michael Flynn
Reply to  RickWill
October 23, 2025 10:50 pm

I doubt Australia will ever recover the capacity to manufacture motor vehicles.

Australia has the capacity to manufacture motor vehicles – or toasters, or teacups, or any number of things, I suppose.

Generally, it just can’t compete with foreign manufacturers, in terms of consumer appeal – including value for money. Although, I believe, Australian company Ansell manufacture rubber gloves in Australia – and also in China and Japan. Main factories are in Sri Lanka, Malaysia, and Thailand. Go figure.

International trade and manufacturing is often not straight-forward and logical. During the First World War, Vickers produced fuses under license from Krupp (a German company), used by Britain to kill German soldiers. Vickers paid royalties to Germany, to produce munitions to kill Germans more cost-effectively than British designs. After the end of the war, Krupp sued Vickers for non-payment of royalties which Vickers had charged the British government for, but had pocketed – no doubt figuring that Krupp couldn’t do much about it, while Britain and Germany were at war.

Krupp eventually settled with Vickers for less than Krupp initially claimed, in 1926.

All part of international trade.

Reply to  RickWill
October 23, 2025 11:59 pm

an AI controlled factory from China that is able to design and build motor vehicles.

I think you mean, a China-controlled AI factory…

Bob
October 24, 2025 12:47 pm

Very nice Vijay I have nothing to add.

Bernd Felsche
October 25, 2025 8:10 pm

A story tip

Nero-tic German government demolished two serviceable cooling towers at the Gundremmigen nuclear power plant yesterday.

Emblematic of the suicidal downfall of Germany as an industrial and prosperous nation.

German gas storage is lower than what it has ever been. And the likely demand has increased because there are more gas-fired power stations that will have to take up the slack at the inevitable Dunkelflaute. Storage may be exhausted by the end of January if the winter is not exceptionally mild.

LNG imports in place of the pipeline gas cannot come quickly enough. Literally. Russian LNG allegedly trans-shipped via China will be a drop in the bucket of normal peak demand. LNG facilities are a bottleneck as are shipping lanes and available fleets of tankers.

Substantial rationing of all energy use is quite likely in Germany if its neighbours share the same winter and have no electrical power to share. Not even at mind-numbing, instantaneous costs in the hundreds or even thousands of Euros per megawatt-hour.

If those prices don’t reflect in the utility bills, then they will in the tax bill in countries like Germany that hides such costs by subsidies to pay for the difference between planned and actual.

P.S.: Germany has known domestic, fraccable gas resources to supply the country for 30 years. But that’s VERBOTEN.

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