From Fudan University and the “clustered climate science” department comes this inanity. They can’t show a trend in North Atlantic Hurricanes so they change the narrative to “clusters” of hurricanes. Of course, nobody could see such clusters before the satellite era, so what did they do? Make a “probabilistic framework” aka model of course – Anthony
Tropical cyclone cluster events over the North Atlantic. This image from NOAA’s GOES-16 satellite on September 14, 2020, shows five tropical systems spinning in the Atlantic basin at one time. From left to right: Hurricane Sally in the Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Paulette east of the Carolinas, the remnants of Tropical Storm Rene in the central Atlantic, and Tropical Storms Teddy and Vicky in the eastern Atlantic. A total of 10 named storms formed in September 2020 — the most for any month on record. (Image credit: NOAA)
Tropical cyclones, commonly known as typhoons or hurricanes, can form in clusters and impact coastal regions back-to-back. For example, Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria hit U.S. sequentially within one month in 2017. The Federal Emergency Management Agency failed to provide adequate support to hurricane victims in Puerto Rico when Maria struck because most rescue resources and specialized disaster staffers were deployed for the responses to Hurricanes Harvey and Irma.
A new study published in Nature Climate Change confirms these hurricane clusters are becoming more frequent in the North Atlantic in recent decades—a trend projected to continue in the near future.
Tropical cyclone clusters describe the event that two or more tropical cyclones present simultaneously within the same basin. This phenomenon is not rare, as historically only 40% of tropical cyclones appeared alone. Beyond the combined impacts of individual storms, tropical cyclone clusters can cause disproportionate damage as coastal communities and infrastructures need time to bounce back from the impact of the first storm. Understanding tropical cyclone clusters and their future is thus important for coastal risk management.
Analysing the historical observation of tropical cyclones, the authors found that during the past few decades, the chances for tropical cyclone cluster decreased in the Northwestern Pacific basin, while increased in North Atlantic basin. “We tried to develop a probabilistic framework to understand this trend” said Dazhi Xi, a climatologist at HKU who co-led the study and developed the methodology, “If tropical cyclone clusters are formed by chance, then only storm frequency, storm duration, and storm seasonality can impact the chance. So, as a first attempt we simulate the formation of tropical cyclone clusters by probabilistic modelling, considering only these three mechanisms, and hoped we could find why tropical cyclone clusters changed in the past decades”.
However, the probabilistic model is only partly successful. For some years, it significantly underestimates the chance of tropical cyclone cluster. It is because some storms coexist with other storms not simply by chance, rather, they have physical linkage. “The previously seemed failed statistical model now soon becomes a powerful tool that can distinguish physical-linked tropical cyclone cluster with those by pure chance” said Wen Zhou, a climatologist at Fudan University and the corresponding author of the study. For those years that the probabilistic model fails, the authors find that synoptic scale waves, a series of train-like atmospheric disturbances, enhance the chance of tropical cyclone cluster formation.
The study further discovered that the La-Nina-like global warming pattern, characterized by slower warming in the Eastern Pacific compared to the Western Pacific, is the reason behind the observed shifts in tropical cyclone cluster hotspot. “The warming pattern not only modulates the frequency of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic and Northwestern Pacific basins, but also impacts the strength of the synoptic scale waves, together causing the shift of tropical cyclone cluster hotspot from Northwestern Pacific to North Atlantic basin” said Zheng-Hang Fu, a PhD student at Fudan University who co-led the study.
The research establishes a probabilistic baseline model for investigating tropical cyclone cluster events and their underlying physical mechanisms. This framework not only explains the observed shift of tropical cyclone cluster hotspot from the Northwestern Pacific to the North Atlantic basin, but also provides a transferable methodology applicable to other ocean basins worldwide. Importantly, the authors identify the North Atlantic as an emerging hotspot for tropical cyclone clusters in recent decades. This finding calls for heightened attention from Atlantic coastal nations, urging them to develop proactive strategies against these compounding hazards.
References:
Fu, Z.H., D. Xi, S.-P. Xie, W. Zhou, N. Lin, J. Zhao, X. Wang, and J.C.L. Chan, 2025: Shifting hotspot of tropical cyclone clusters in a warming climate. Nature Climate Change, 15. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02397-9
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I never see a discussion of sensor quality, quality and sensitivity be it satellites or storm chasers. When we send 6 airplanes in when once we sent one you are far more likely to measure at peak intensity.
Not that it matters as the 1979-present satellite era is barely long enough to analyze trends. That is if we take into consideration above quality, quantity, frequency.
You are misinformed. There are not 6 planes into hurricanes for measurement of various parameters. There is one Gulfstream business jet flown by NOAA. And the other is a C130 military turboprop. There are several of these special C130’s known as Hurricane Hunters in the squadron, but only one at a time goes into the storms. They may fly for 8 or 10 hours doing multiple passes through at varying tracks/headings, often passing through the eye. But there is only one penetrating the storm at any given time.
The kicker regards fudging the numbers is they have been lying about peak wind speeds for some time now, often taking wind speeds at 10,000 feet altitude and saying that is the storm intensity, when it is absolutely known that friction at the surface causes a substantially lower wind speed. You could actually get the sensor data transmitted from the planes and see how they were lying, but then they made if very hard to find that data lately.
But you can still call their bullchips by using the transponder data from the planes which transmits the altitude, heading, ground speed, etc every few seconds. Doing so with Ian in 2022, they reported landfall it was a CAT 4 with like 135 mph winds, but at the same time as landfall the C130 was making passes through the eyewall, and the actual wind speed (at 10,000 feet above sea level) was only 105 to 110 mph a CAT 2. (it’s a simple though tedious method to derive the wind speed from the GPS ground speed of the plane – they alternate flying with and against the storm’s winds, and the plane has a defined maneuvering airspeed above which structural damage will occur in severe turbulence some simple math and vector addition….)
Since the authors are exclusively from Fudan U, the ‘probability conclusion’ should make them happy – fewer typhoon or hurricane clusters in their part of the world, depending on the International Date Line. Maybe the researchers should consider the other many effects of ‘clusters’ of typhoons/hurricanes – raising local sea levels, enhanced Ekman transport, cooling the mixed layer, etc.? That would far more interesting than a statistically dubious result.
Fubar U ?
😉
Shortened to FU.
Modelling is the last refuge of the scientific scoundrel.
Sounds like a clusterf__k to me…
😅 My thought EXACTLY!
They did the same thing with tornadoes. Unable to produce an upward trend in frquency they tried to show there are more tornadoes per breakout.
Yeah but on Tuesdays during full moons there’s more of [fill in ‘bad thing here] because climate change.
From the article: “This phenomenon is not rare,”
Enough said.
That is what makes this discovery so special, so exciting. It is not rare, but we never looked at it before. Sheesh.
When liars slap a name on any halfassed collection of clouds over an open body of water the general public accepts it as a HURRICANE. And THIS allows the lie spewing liars to continue to spew lies and be taken seriously. None of the “named” storms this season in Atlantic Basin even achieved tropical storm status and yet they got a name slapped on them and therefore the GENERAL PUBLIC believes they were and are HURRICANES. Stop lying to people. Just. Stop. Lying.
Someday climate scare science will only be found in the fiction section.
Rather it be in the ancient history section.
The climate alarmists needed a new scare tactic since people began disregarding the previous ones long ago. So they came up with the supposed threat of hurricane clusters as though there was some sort of guarantee that these were already happening or will soon become annual occurrences. Soon when they don’t materialize or pose no greater threat than their predecessors they’ll quietly fade from publicity.
t
Just wait, you all will see what horrific weather phenom is spawned when a “hurricane cluster” meets a “polar vortex”! I can’t even calculate the “feels like” for that, the scale doesn’t go that high!
If it causes greenie weenie heads to explode, bring it on!
They will present it as a modern Day After Tomorrow, but claim it is factual.
Next year it’ll be Super Clusters, after that, Mega Clusters. What’s after Mega.
MAGA?
Giga
Have I seen a cluster of no storms like today’s Atlantic Cyclone Season? Oh and don’t forget the nine year drought of no American landfalls. That was a cluster to talk about at middle-class cocktail parties-
AI says:
Yes, that’s correct. There were no major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) that made landfall in the United States between 2006 and 2015. This nine-year period without a major hurricane landfall was unusually long, breaking the previous record for such a drought, according to NASA SVS.
Here’s why this is notable:
Unusual Length:
This nine-year period surpassed the previous record for the longest time without a major hurricane landfall, which was seven years between 1861 and 1868, according to Phys.org.”
The poor Climate Alarmists had nothing to talk about for nine years during hurricane season.
And, as we see, even long hurricane droughts are not unprecedented. They have happened before. There’s nothing new under the sun.
So the latest Climate Apocalypse creation is hurricane clusters.
Reminds me of Heartbreak Ridge…. Cluster “Flop” (you all know the real expression).
It will all change when the AMO shifts to its next cold phase.