NOAA will issue its outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season during a news conference on Thursday, May 22 at the Jefferson Parish Emergency Operations Center in Gretna, Louisiana, and virtually. Speakers will announce the anticipated activity for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, factors that may influence hurricane development and give advice for how the public can prepare for the season, which officially begins on June 1 and ends November 30.
Event Speakers
Laura Grimm, Acting NOAA Administrator
Ken Graham, Director, NOAA’s National Weather Service, and Assistant Administrator for Weather Services at NOAA
Cynthia Lee-Sheng, Jefferson Parish President
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I prefer tea leaves over goat entrails but wonder why stout in a mug is not used.
Maybe it is…
I should have considered that.
“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” – Yogi Berra
2023 Predictions
12 to 17 total named storms
5 to 9 hurricanes
1 to 4 major hurricanes
70% confidence
Actual
20 total named storms
7 hurricanes
3 major hurricanes
2024 Predictions
17 to 25 total named storms
8 to 13 hurricanes
4 to 7 major hurricanes
70% confidence
Actual
18 names storms
11 hurricanes
5 major hurricanes
2025 Predictions
13 to 19 total named storms
6 to 10 hurricanes
3 to 5 major hurricanes
70% confidence
Grab a beer and a tub of popcorn and watch how it plays out.
A simple observation. If a precise, accurate predictions for one season in one part of the world is not achievable, how credible is a 50 projection of climate accuracy?
When did named storms become a thing?
I asked Google’s AI agent who I refer to as Igor but which probably has some niftier name.
“The official practice of naming tropical cyclones started in the Western Pacific in 1945, and in the Atlantic in 1950. The Atlantic naming system initially used names from the phonetic alphabet (e.g., Able, Baker, Charlie) before transitioning to female names in 1953. In 1979, the system switched to using both male and female names, which is still in use today. …
Seems plausible. All I know for sure is that storms in the 1930s did not have names. And those in the 1960s did.
The prediction is that the season will be slightly above average: 60-40. In the “treacherous dangerous globally warming world in which we putatively live” that is a cop-out, but also, a completely safe prediction, based merely on a finger in the breeze.
Where is Doge when we need it?.
Same as they usually give….”more than usual”….if they said “less than usual” and actually had more, it would reveal too much of the smoke and mirrors involved.
Serious question, have they ever predicted a below average season? Their numbers seem to end up in the ballpark, but this common characterization seems tendentious.
The real question is how many will get into the Gulf and get super charged. That’s what seems to do the most damage on average