Essay by Eric Worrall
The Australian Labor Party has decisively won Saturday’s Federal Election – but support for climate skeptics rose a little.
The Greens;
Greens on track to lose several MPs as independents hold off challenges and gain votes in federal election
Greens suffer setbacks as teal independents Allegra Spender, Zoe Daniel, Monique Ryan and Zali Steggall see off intense campaigns from Liberals, while Nicolette Boele leads in Bradfield
Voters have dealt a significant blow to the Greens, with the minor party on track to lose several MPs – including potentially its party leader, Adam Bandt – and fall short in other electorates that it had hoped to win from Labor, while several teal independents retained their seats with improved margins and others are on track to win seats previously held by the Coalition.
At the Greens’ election night function in Melbourne, the party faithful had largely tuned out of the election results broadcast, as early results predicted Max Chandler-Mather and Stephen Bates would lose their respective seats of Griffith and Brisbane to Labor.
And in the Brisbane seat of Ryan, the future of Elizabeth Watson-Brown – who, with Chandler-Mather and Bates, won their seats for the Greens for the first time at the 2022 election – was unclear, with early results on a knife-edge.
…
Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/may/03/greens-independents-australian-federal-election-results
The lukewarmers had a really bad night – Peter Dutton, the leader of the mainstream opposition, lost his own seat. There is a firm tradition in Australian politics you cannot be party leader if you don’t have a seat in parliament.
Dutton booted from his own seat on night of misery for Liberal Party
Maddison Leach 10:03pm May 3, 2025
Peter Dutton has lost his own seat of Dickson, which he had held since 2001, in a night of misery for the Liberal Party.
Speaking in Brisbane, Dutton publicly conceded the election and his own seat, saying “tonight’s not the night that we wanted for the Liberal Party or for our Coalition or indeed for our country”.
“We didn’t do well enough during this campaign. That much is obvious tonight and I accept full responsibility for that,” he said.
…
Read more: https://www.9news.com.au/national/federal-election-2025-dickson-election-results-what-will-happen-peter-dutton-loses-his-seat-explained/12b52a39-345a-4588-81be-9ea99bc5e4cb
Climate skeptic One Nation had a good night for a minority party, but despite the electoral setback for the greens, the greens still received twice as many votes as One Nation (see above). There is a sliver of a chance One Nation’s gains in the senate could give them a veto vote on some bills, but the senate vote count likely won’t be finalised for weeks.
It could be weeks before Pauline Hanson’s One Nation’s biggest question is answered
By Maddison Leach 11:47pm May 3, 2025
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party has scored more than 600,000 votes in the 2025 federal election as it hopes to increase its Senate representation.
With more than 50 per cent of votes counted, the party appears to have a positive 1.25 per cent swing.
Hanson has yet to comment on One Nation’s results and the biggest question – how her daughter will fare in the election – won’t be answered tonight.
…
Read more: https://www.9news.com.au/national/federal-election-2025-results-pauline-hanson-one-nation/9330c797-c311-47e1-b212-0f64741c5f9d
So why did Labor do so well? Despite Labor’s hardline renewable energy stance, the Aussie federal election on 3 May 2025 was a long way from being a climate change election. Even greens didn’t talk much about climate change, they focussed more on world events, housing affordability and their economic plans.
The socialist Labor party won because they gave ordinary Australians a reason to vote for them. They presented a vision of more job security and government funded assistance with cost of living pressures and housing affordability.
Just as Trump’s economic plan to bring down inflation, cost of living and energy costs connected with ordinary Americans, so the socialist Australian Labor Party vision of flinging subsidies and government funded housing at people in need connected with ordinary Australians.
Opposition leader Peter Dutton failed to articulate a coherent competing vision which addressed issues which mattered to undecided voters, and failed to explain why his vision would deliver better outcomes. Dutton’s out of touch campaign missteps, such as his attempt to outflank the incumbents with an emissions reduction plan based on government funded nuclear power plants fell flat because it was badly explained and because the electorate has moved on – cost of living pressure and job uncertainty has driven green issues way down the list of most people’s priorities.
Prime Minister Albanese also successfully played the patriotism card, just as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney did in Canada’s recent election. Australia’s Albanese made a big show of standing up to Trump on tariffs. Albanese’s appointment of a US ambassador who said lots of hateful things about Trump may have played into this narrative of standing up to Trump.
Dutton by contrast, instead of meeting this school yard posturing head on, made a weak last minute effort to distance himself from President Trump, which likely did more harm than good by alienating right wing voters whose support he desperately needed.
The leader with the plan to solve high priority problems won the election. It doesn’t matter if the plan is flawed, if those flaws go unchallenged. Nobody else presented a better plan.
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This mirrors the results in Canada’s federal election last week when the Greens were reduced to a single seat out of a possible 344, and the NDP, another climate alarmist party, fell to 7. In addition, when Canadians were polled beforehand about where their priorities stood, climate and the environment could rank no higher than eighth at best while the fact that both Liberals and Conservatives got rid of the highly unpopular and equally ineffectual carbon tax. showed it was regarded as one of the key factors in driving up living costs. The reality is that globally people have recognized the whole climate issue as a scam and a money grab by governments and green product producers and fail to see in rising populations, increasing life expectancies and tripling of agricultural output any climate crisis whatsoever.
The were 2 issues in the Australian election
1.) The Libs only had half baked policies that were incomplete, stupid or mirrored labor. In that situation it’s safer top stay with what you know.
2.) Gen Z and women hate Peter Dutton.
The ABC actually hit it right on before the election
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-02/young-voters-influence-key-seats-federal-election-2025/105221508
Look at the percentage of GenZ voters in the key seats and Peter Dutton had 34% in his own electorate of Dickson and he got smashed.
There is a warning to all this going into next election where GenZ will make up even more of the voters. I can tell you I was one of many who couldn’t find a party I actually wanted to vote for and so it came down to which leader did you like less.
I don’t think climate change played any real part in the election and the fact the Greens went backwards sort of says that.
“Climate skeptic One Nation had a good night for a minority party”
Not really. Their one senator up for reelection, Malcolm Roberts in Queensland, went backwards, and is struggling, with only about half a quota:
With 6 senate spots to be allocated in this election, where do you think they’ll end up?
I’d be surprised if the LNP didn’t get one more.
If the LCP is eliminated, then their ballots will flow down ticket to the remaining teams, any guesses to where? Similar for GRPF/KAP.
The first thing to happen will be the redistribution of the ALP surplus, 0.13 quotas. That won’t help Malcolm. Conversely, the LNP will be a sink for preferences until it reaches 2 quotas. It isn’t easy.
“The first thing to happen will be the redistribution of the ALP surplus,”
NO.. smallest quotas get redistributed first.
That’s not exactly correct.
If Team A has 2 quotas, Team B has 1 Quota and Team, C through F have partial quota amounts only, then it is fair to say that Team A will have 2 elected, Team B will have 1 elected, the remaining 3 positions will be filled by allocation of the second preference of the LOWEST vote winning candidate.
You keep eliminating the LOWEST candidates until their distributed votes takes the total of elected persons to 6, (the number of available spaces at this election).
So, the 0.13 surplus for the ALP will NOT be distributed down, but actually will be added to from those eliminated, if the portion rises to 1, then they get another person from their team elected.
To assess who will be elected, you should be looking at the party of the lowest vote winner and thinking where THEIR preferences may fall.
They are distributed, but the majority goes to the third candidate (ALP this time). As you say, they then get eliminated lowest first. So that third candidate with about 0.13 quotas (plus what may come in) will distribute those preferences when his turn comes.
Last time in Qld the LNP started with 2.43 quotas, which enabled the third candidate, Amanda Stoker, to last right through to the last round, so her preferences were never distributed.
In 2025 there are 5 candidates who will certainly be elected, and the rest must rely on a pool of preferences. In effect the ALP surplus goes into that pool, and the LNP and Greens take from it to make up their quota. That makes the pool available to the rest less conservative.
There is a detailed account of the 2025 Qld count here.
One Nation Senator is in a good position with 0.50 quota. In 2022 , the last election ONP had 0.51 quotas primary and ended up taking the 6th seat.
The Greens were 0.86 then and are 0.89 now so will also get one seat like before
not all the primary votes have been counted so the fractions may change a bit
https://antonygreen.com.au/2022-queensland-senate-election/
Apparently the voting paper is the size of a small tablecloth. They need a computer based selection which prints a ballot with the voters choice and this goes in the as a paper ballot which when polls close is then scanned for counting and distributing the preferences.
The manual then data entry current method takes many weeks
Yes, but the difference is that in 2022, the LNP had 2.47 quotas, with a 0.47 surplus going to other candidates like PHON. Labor had 1.73, with a deficit. This time those placings are reversed. The preference pool is much less conservative.
That drop in LNP quota went mostly to Rennick, One Nation, Trumpet etc
Still plenty of conservative votes left to get ON past the post.. Time will tell.
Nick, that 0.47 only goes to other candidates IF the LNP team, (after electing two), are eliminated, (implying that all who are left in the running at that stage have greater than 0.47).
There is a lot deadwood to eliminate before you get up to the 0.47 portion and above.
Yes, and in fact it wasn’t. See above.
Basically all of Rennick’s vote will go to One Nation and the LNP (who knows what split !).
ToP votes (only just below LCP, no idea how those will split) will also probably flow to One Nation.
Family First will also flow mostly to One Nation
Combined that could put ON well over 1 quota.
Not over yet.
I don’t think many voted on climate change most of Pauline’s vote were from people who didn’t want to vote for the two majors.
The real interesting part of the election result is labor/independents have all the city seats. Lib/Nat have all the country seats excluding NT. Going forward how do the Libs ever form a credible opposition without any city base. My prediction is in years to come what is now the teals will become a party and the opposition and the libs will dissolve back into the nationals.
“what is now the teals will become a party”
They are mostly already funded from the same source……. independent.. nope !!
A party in all but name.
Call them the AWFUL party.. Affluent White Female Urban Lefties.
Both major parties are hell bent on achieving the globalist NetZero. One party was offering subsidised household batteries in six weeks while the other was offering nuclear power in maybe 15 years. Take your pick. The majority clearly favoured the battery gift from July this year over the nuclear proposal that might never be achieved.
Rooftop solar is the fastest growing generating source in Australia with installed capacity now over 20GW. Around 40% of households have rooftop solar and many small and medium businesses have them. So Labor pampered to this large and growing group of the population.
The grid has to collapse before the strategy changes. Household batteries may delay that outcome.
One Nation is the only party of some relevance that is not pushing NetZero.
I’m not sure that the average punter could manage the solar batteries. That means that a simple fault will require an electrician to attend. That costs money and will not be covered by any government grants. The fault’s development may take a month, (teething problem), or may take a year or two, (QA problem). But they will happen.
As soon as one fault trips out the system the batteries will stop charging, they’ll lose charge through elf discharge, eventually becoming fully discharged and incapable of being resurrected. Their next destination will be an expensive disconnect, (call the Sparkie), and onward path, via a skip bin, to the tip. Recycling would be an added cost that would have to be incurred by the homeowner as they source and arrange transport of the batteries, (probably back to china).
This plan sounds great, (on a beer coaster, refer NBN), for cost saving and peak load diversion, but the only outcome I see is a lot of get/got rich electricians and just like the pink batts debacle from Rudd several years ago, a huge amount of waste and rorting. Hopefully no deaths this time.
And for those that aren’t in Oz, you may need to look up some of the topics I covered above. Sorry in advance, it’ll hurt your sense of reason when you learn of the previous government plans all designed to help the plebs.
“Hi, I’m from the government, and I’m here to help!”
The batteries combined with solar represent good value and do not even need the subsidy to make them economic. People will notice if they are not working. And the vast majority of homeowners are not as dumb as you might think. They will call the service tech because they will notice the hit on their bill..
Even if the batteries are not being charged, they all have automatic protection that isolates the battery when the battery gets to a preset low voltage. Batteries have active cell balancing now so they will sit idle for years without self-discharge.
Export feed-in tariffs are very low and heading toward negative. That is incentivising batteries. So load shifting lunchtime production to night time demand can make households energy independent most days. They then leech off the grid when the sun does not shine through the day.
The household batteries will flatten the duck curve and that lowers the risk of grid collapse.
Rick, Let’s say that your battery is comprised of a stack of 6 of 5kWHr batteries, all in a lovely shiny rack with the words on the front. No unauthorised access and dangerous voltages inside. If one of those 6 units goes tits up, the owner will not know until it is useless.
A smarter system will include an internet connection from the household back to the Sparkie, reporting on battery issues, eg one has tripped out, preventing further charge/discharge. At this stage the Sparkie would know that something needs to be done and the home owner will soon get a phone call and a house call out costing several hundred dollars. I think that the batteries will be sent back to china a lot sooner than you may think.
Like yourself, (I think I read it once before), I’m off grid, batteries and solar for me and can confirm that maintenance and unplanned outages have to be managed before the damage is concreted into the bank.
With regard to the duck curve, have you noticed how many supermarkets and similar are claiming to be 100% ruinable powered yet strangely I never see a battery bank nearby? I think that in reality all they are doing is making the duck curve steeper. They should be paying a premium for this, not saving money.
The conservatives missed a big selling point of difference imo by not highlighting that residential renters & condo strata residents were being short-changed in their share of government largesse by the significant $$$s being offered for installations of solar panels & batteries for house owners by the Labor party.
No, they had an answer for that. Renters can participate in community solar projects.
I was just reading a list of all the costly vote-harvesting promises made by Labor.
Remembering that many of the $billions of handouts promises were made in the leadup to the election kickoff when Labor were seriously behind in the polling, I’m guessing there will currently be lots of meetings going on in Labor’s Treasury Ministry, with main the question being –
“where the fvck are we gonna get all this dough from?”
where the fvck are we gonna get all this dough from?
I suspect the answer is, look in the mirror.
Put it on the credit card and let the kids pay for it … both sides had same plan 🙂
“where the fvck are we gonna get all this dough from?”
By putting an unreaised capital gains tax on assets in super and then the family home.
The Liberals basically gave conservatives nothing coherent to vote for.
Dutton having the charisma of a potato, didn’t help either.
One good thing to come out of this is that the Greens have lost seats.
The icing on that small cake would be if the weaselly Adam Bandt also lost his seat.
I hear that he’ll be running in Palestine soon.
I’m not sure why he’ll be running but I’m fairly sure of who he’ll be running from. Especially in his gays for islam t-shirt.
The opprobia of decades of energy policy by ignoramuses, voted in by propagandized proles, has nearly arrived for Australians, Canadians, Iberian residents, and many others (Americans?).
Welcome to NOVA-1984 – 21st Century style Feudal Civilization.
Thanks Eric. Australian politics is really hard for me to understand. Did our side make any progress?
No, for now we’re stuck with timid, green appeasing mainstream conservative leaders and a fractured right wing, like the US Republicans had before Trump. There has been a tiny amount of movement, but there is still strong bipartisan support for woke causes.
Bob, my take on this election was that the leftist strategy emulated that of Obama’s 2008 campaign –
basically just a huge give-away of taxpayer $$$s to every cohort that could possibly have their hands out for “free stuff”.
It’s a political tactic that rational governance can’t possibly compete with.
But it always ends in tears.
It can be challenged – by pointing out debt fuelled subsidies are unsustainable and providing a better alternative vision.
Yep. Round here nothing changes. Not in a hurry anyway.