By Ananya Bhatia and Vijay Jayaraj
From my residential perch overlooking Ho Chi Minh City, I embrace the tranquillity of daybreak.
Quickly, the idyllic morning transforms into a pulsing canvas of vitality as middle-class ambitions surge through the arteries of this burgeoning metropolis – Vietnam’s largest city known to some as Saigon. It is an inspiring scene emblematic of a nation hungry for progress, driven by an industrious spirit and the resilient energy of its people.
However, Vietnamese ambitions may not be fully realized without a supportive economy and a robust policy framework. Vietnam’s expanding energy economy is often at odds with external pressures exerted by climate policies propagated by Western nations.
But like many Asian economies, Vietnam is doubling down on the very fossil fuels many climate-obsessed leaders in the West want to abandon. The country has now announced that its coal-fired power plants will run for a record number of hours in 2025 to meet electricity demand.
Ambitious Nation Forging Economic Path
The global climate lobby, with its wish list of emission caps and targets for a green transition, completely ignores the energy needs of rapidly growing middle- and lower-income economies.
As witnessed at the recently concluded United Nations climate conference – COP29 – the voices of dissent are growing in number. An exodus from the global net zero pact – led by Asian nations – is happening at a pace that is surely unnerving for climate warriors. As one of fastest growing economies in Asia, Vietnam is leading the accelerating exit.
Fossil fuels dominate Vietnam’s energy landscape. They account for 77% of the primary energy consumed in the country. In 2023, Vietnam relied on fossil fuels for 58% of its electricity, and that reliance is expected to more than double by 2030.
The country is rapidly developing infrastructure for importing liquefied natural gas (LNG). New terminals are under construction along its coastline, and agreements with major LNG exporters are being inked.
As electricity demand more than doubled over the past decade, it was met with a doubling of coal power generation. In the first 10 months of this year, nearly half of Vietnam’s electricity generation came from coal-powered facilities, contributing to a total output of almost 257 billion kilowatt-hours.
A key driver behind this year’s surge in coal use has been an unusually steep decline in electricity generation from hydro dams. The Vietnamese government has announced that it will keep the coal-fired power plants operating at significantly higher levels in 2025 in order to support increased demand for electricity across the country and to lessen dependency on unpredictable hydroelectric power.
Moreover, recent incidents of major power blackouts serve as a stark reminder of Vietnam’s vulnerabilities. These blackouts are not mere inconveniences; they are disruptions that the country’s manufacturing sector cannot afford to suffer.
In 2023, manufacturing accounted for 24% of Vietnam’s gross domestic product (GDP), reaching a value of nearly $40 billion.
Following concerns raised by Korean, Japanese and American chambers of commerce about unstable electricity supply affecting their manufacturing operations, Vietnam Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh assured business groups that he would prevent power outages.
Operators of coal-powered facilities across Vietnam—including state-owned mining group Vinacomin and the Northeast Corporation—must finalize fuel-procurement strategies for 2025 before this year concludes, according to new government directives.
Vietnamese industry has witnessed a steady annual growth rate, further intensifying the call for reliable energy sources. The use of coal as the backbone of the country’s power production has long been seen as a practical approach. Coal is cheap, abundant and relatively accessible. For a country with limited domestic energy resources, it is an indispensable fuel.
As the middle class expands, so too does the need for dependable energy sources. The international community needs to recognize the necessity of supporting Vietnam (and other countries) in their domestic energy decisions rather than vilifying dependence on fossil fuels.
Vietnam is another reminder of a hard truth: Rapid growth demands energy-intensive resources that cannot be replaced by green alternatives.
This commentary was first published at California Globe on December 2, 2024.
Ananya Bhatia is an urban development consultant based in Ho Chi Minh City and has coauthored papers on disaster resilience in Asia. She holds a master of technology degree.
Vijay Jayaraj – a Science and Research Associate at the CO2 Coalition, Fairfax, Virginia – contributed to this article.
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There is a desire by The Green Blob to keep Third World peasants in thatched huts.
EVERYONE (except themselves) in thatched huts, but with sturdy sandals.
Sandals of thatch or wood, not plastic or rubber.
your formatting doesn’t seem to be working
But it stands out, attracts attention. Good marketing trick.
But you have to scroll side to side to read it. Good marketing trick nullified.
This is a first, I think. At least I’ve not seen it. And I don’t know how it got that way. 🤔
I used to be able to use the pre – /pre (with the greater than, less than signs) to put up a table copy/pasted from Excel. At some point in that past it stopped working correctly and displays the entire table as just one line with a scroll bar.
(When the table displayed correctly, it still had a scroll bar but it remained a table.)
Why not use a screen capture of the table as shown in Excel – then upload it as an image.
Good thought. But I think the image of this table would end up to small to read.
I’ll spend more time on the “Test” page.
(Maybe something with the “pre” things has changed?)
Any image you make- will look here as large as you make it. Best to make it as large as you can- especially for a spreadsheet. It the spreadsheet is full screen on your computer and you do a screen capture- it should look good here when you upload that image- preferably a .jpg file.
Natural resources without energy won’t do much for useful development. Of course, the powers-that-be can benefit greatly from selling the resources to foreign devils on the cheap. Not much of that income gets spread around and most of the country and population remain in sh**h*le status.
In the mid-80s, for mostly personal reasons, my partner and I had an opportunity to supply a huge supply of tin (meeting exact specs) to the PRC. I’ll skip the long mini-series-worthy tale that goes with this.
The first surprise in our effort take advantage of this opportunity was learning that China had enormous tin resources at home. Hmmmmm….
Didn’t take long to figure out that China didn’t have the energy resources to process what they had into what they needed. Obviously, the PRC and other rapidly developing economies in Asia realized they needed to generate lots more energy and took steps to get it. Africa seems to lag in this regard.
In a country like Viet Nam, with so much rain forest- what would the greens do, clear the jungle for solar “farms”? How long would they last in a rain forest environment? The jungle will grow over everything in short order.
In a country like Vietnam greens do not determine the agenda. We need more countries like that.
The correct spelling is Viet Nam. And the first word is one syllable. A Viet Namese fellow I worked with a long time ago told me all Viet Namese words are one syllable.
How many syllables is “Namese”?
In Vietnamese all words may be one syllable, but the word Vietnam is an English word. Today, both Vietnam and Viet Nam and are considered correct, but I think there is some political correctness in the second.
Of course, languages are always changing, but there is some wokeness in rushing obligingly to “correct” your own language to please every nation’s petty whim.
Germans call themselves Deutsch, Finnish Suomi, etc. How they call themselves is their language.
English or any other language do not have to change to make them feel better.
So what are their options? Wait for ‘free’ money to buy solar panels and windmills that provide intermittent energy and be on the hook for the IMF “loan” or ……. follow China’s lead and build coal powered energy plants that can pay for themselves and lead the country to prosperity. These people are neither stupid nor green obsessed. The Marxists will have a hard time convincing them that their poverty will save the rest of the world.
middle-class ambitions surge through the arteries of this burgeoning metropolis
Luckily, they have not contracted the mind virus – yet.
The mind viruses spread from upper class institutions of indoctrination, er, I mean education! There and the schools of “education” where the useless and lazy children of the wealthy go to assuage their guilt for being born with privilege!
I googled viet nam power sources and it looks like coal is #1 with hydro close
behind. Also appears that they have some rooftop solar and are venturing into offshore
wind and are getting setup for LNG. With a manufacturing based economy reliable
electricity has to be #1, coal and steel go hand in hand….
https://www.sipet.org/power-sector-snapshot-vietnam.aspx
https://www.evwind.es/2024/12/02/vietnam-prepares-for-first-offshore-wind-power-project/103028
From our world data
Gee what a novel idea.
“Following concerns raised by Korean, Japanese and American chambers of commerce about unstable electricity supply affecting their manufacturing operations, Vietnam Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh assured business groups that he would prevent power outages.”
“In 2023, Vietnam relied on fossil fuels for 58% of its electricity, and that reliance is expected to more than double by 2030.”
>116%?
Not every well stated , is it.
I suspect they mean that the actual amount of electricity from fossil fuels will double by 2030.
Coal usage as certainly climbing rapidly before Covid, and looks like continuing to increase.
Vietnam’s coal use and emissions set new records | Reuters
I lived at various locations along Highway 19 in Vietnam, between Qui Hhon and An Khe in 1968. It was a two-lane paved road that traveled through mostly unoccupied territory, with an occasional village along the way.
My daughter visited Vietnam last year and took some videos of Highway 19 and after looking at those and looking at Google Earth, I was amazed to see how much the area had been built up. There were houses and building up and down the road on both sides. It was an unbelievable transformation. I was still expecting to see unpopulated countryside.
There was a small bridge on that road that I spent some time at. The current pictures of that bridge show a huge tree growing at the edge of the creek, almost touching the bridge and it was at least 50 feet tall.
There was no tree at the bridge when I was there. That thing grew to that size in the time I have been gone. I guess it just emphasizes for me just how long it’s been.
Vietnamese people are good people. I’m glad that they have some measure of freedom, but if you are not on the communist side, then you better be careful. Injustices abound.