Surfboards and Science: Why a 17-Year-Old’s Ocean ‘Thermometer’ Won’t Save the Planet

Oh, look, The Guardian is at it again, serving up a piping hot plate of climate hysteria with a side of precocious child activism. This time, they’ve hauled out a 17-year-old surfer from Brazil to lecture us all at COP29 about how the ocean is allegedly “getting warmer.” Because, obviously, who needs thermometers, satellite data, or rigorous reconstructions of ocean temperatures when you’ve got a paddling around on a foam board?

As a surfer, I’m constantly on the ocean, and I actually felt the oceans warming,” says Catarina Lorenzo, 17, a professional surfer from Salvador, in Bahia state in Brazil.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/live/2024/nov/19/cop29-climate-summit-live-updates-world-leaders-in-baku-azerbaijan?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-673c55e78f0866cddf1b7a15#block-673c55e78f0866cddf1b7a15

Here’s the deal: The Guardian breathlessly reports that this kid has “noticed the ocean getting warmer.” Wow, stop the presses! Cornwall’s pint-sized Jacques Cousteau has declared it so! I’m sure every scientist laboring over ARGO floats and analyzing centuries of proxy data is ready to throw in the towel, because we’ve discovered the ultimate climate measuring device: the “17-year-old personal feeling-o-meter.”

But it gets better. The kid was apparently speaking on behalf of “Surfers Against Sewage.” Yes, you read that right. The name alone sounds like something straight out of a Monty Python sketch. Their shtick? Conflating ocean pollution, sewage overflow, and global climate trends into one big glob of environmental alarmism.

Here’s the kicker, though. Despite the breathless claims and emotional appeals, ocean temperature measurements themselves are riddled with uncertainty. You see, when it comes to understanding ocean warming, scientists have been collecting data for decades using methods like ship-based thermometers, satellites, ARGO buoys, and reconstructions from coral and sediment cores. And guess what? These methods often disagree.

ARGO floats, for example, give relatively recent snapshots, while historical reconstructions rely on proxies that are, to put it generously, open to interpretation. Measurement coverage is patchy at best—deep ocean data remains elusive, and even surface readings show considerable variability depending on location and season. When you’re trying to average this chaotic mess into a single “global ocean temperature anomaly,” the error bars are about as wide as the English Channel itself.

And those models everyone loves to parade around? They’re based on assumptions piled on assumptions. Sure, we have rough trends, but the confidence levels plummet as soon as you start asking detailed questions like “How much of the variability is natural?” or “What role does deep ocean circulation play?” And yet, despite these known limitations, we’re supposed to take a 17-year-old surfer’s anecdote as the clincher for the case.

Let’s be blunt: The ocean is vast, covering over 70% of the planet’s surface, with depths averaging over two miles. Measuring its temperature with precision is a Herculean challenge that makes building a Swiss watch look like child’s play. Yet here comes The Guardian, peddling the notion that a kid with a wetsuit can feel changes too subtle for many instruments to consistently detect.

And let’s not ignore the larger absurdity here. Will Xi Jinping read about Cornwall’s Surfer Oracle and suddenly decide to shutter his coal plants? Will India halt its drive to electrify rural villages because a 17-year-old thinks her ocean swims are a little toastier? Of course not. This is pure theater, designed to elicit emotion, not address reality.

The real kicker is that even if the oceans are warming, what are the odds we’re getting it precisely right? If the best science comes with massive uncertainties, then turning to anecdotal feelings is like throwing darts blindfolded and hoping to hit a bullseye. It’s unserious on its face.

So, to The Guardian: Next time, try citing evidence that doesn’t dissolve under the first wave of scrutiny—or logic. And to the young surfer: Keep riding those waves and having fun. But when it comes to ocean temperatures, let’s leave the analysis to professionals—preferably ones who acknowledge the massive uncertainty in the data they’re working with. Or, at the very least, someone who doesn’t think their wetsuit doubles as a thermometer.