How Many Billions of People Would Die Under Net Zero?

From THE DAILY SCEPTIC

by Chris Morrison

BBC oddball Chris Packham has hit back at claims reported on Neil Oliver‘s GB News show that half the world’s population could die if Net Zero was implemented in full. “So Ofcom can you please explain how you allow this utter BS to be broadcast,” he wails. Running to Ofcom would appear to be a trade protection measure – millions will die has been the tried and trusted modus operandi of climate catastrophist Chris for decades.

This would appear to be the same Chris Packham who told the Telegraph in October 2010 that there were too many humans on the planet, and “we need to do something about it”. In 2020, he informed the Daily Mail  that “quite frankly” smallpox, measles, mumps and malaria were there “to regulate our population”. Over his broadcast career, untroubled by Ofcom interest, Packham has claimed mass extinctions of all life on Earth unless humans stop burning hydrocarbons. Of course there are those who point out that these popular mass extinctions only seem to exist in computer models. Hydrocarbons, meanwhile, have led to unprecedented prosperity and health, unimaginable to previous generations, across many parts of a planet that now supports a sustainable population of humans numbering eight billion.

Of course Net Zero is not going to kill four billion people because Net Zero is never going to happen. Day-by-day, support is crumbling around the world as the political collectivisation project, supported by increasingly discredited computer-modelled opinions, is starting to fall apart as it bumps into the hard rock of reality. History teaches us that tribes that grow weak and decadent are easy prey for their stronger neighbours. But the suggestion that four billion will die if Net Zero should ever be inflicted on global populations is worth examining. After all, it is likely to be true.

The four billion dead noted on GB News came from a remark made by Dr. Patrick Moore, one of the original founders of Greenpeace. Interviewed on Fox News, he said: “If we ban fossil fuels, agricultural production would collapse. People will begin to starve, and half the population will die in a very short period of time”. Four billion dead if artificial fertiliser is banned is not ‘BS’, it is an almost guaranteed outcome. In a recent science paper, Emeritus Professors William Happer and Richard Lindzen of Princeton and MIT respectively noted that “eliminating fossil fuel-derived nitrogen fertiliser and pesticides will create worldwide starvation”. With the use of nitrogen fertiliser, crop yields around the world have soared in recent decades and natural famines, as opposed to those local outbreaks caused by humans, have largely disappeared.

Much of the luxury middle class Net Zero obsession is based on a seeming hatred of human progress. It is a campaign to push back the benefit of mass industrialisation, although it is doubtful that many of the ardent promoters think the drastic reductions in standards of living will apply to them. It is narcissism on stilts and based on an almost complete ignorance of how the food in their faddy diets arrives on their plates. It shows a complete disregard for the central role that hydrocarbons play in their lives. It is based on a profound distaste for almost any modern manufacturing process. These days, they do not know people who actually make things, and when they meet them they often dislike them. Nutty Guardianista George Monbiot recently tweeted that ending animal farming is as important as leaving fossil fuels in the ground. “Eating meat, milk and eggs is an indulgence the planet cannot afford,” he added.

Leaving fossil fuels in the ground will mean the following products will largely disappear.

Life Without Oil.jpeg

Circulated on social media and recently published by Paul Homewood, the illustration is a wake-up call to the importance of hydrocarbons. Without it, humans would struggle to make many medicines and plastics. Similar difficulties would be found in the manufacture of common products such as clothing, food preservatives, cleaning products and soft contact lens.

Alec Epstein, the author of the best-selling book Fossil Future, agrees that Net Zero policies by 2050 would be “apocalyptically destructive”, and have in fact already been catastrophically destructive when barely implemented. A reference here, perhaps, to the wicked policies conducted by Western banks and elites in refusing to loan money to build hydrocarbon-fuelled water treatment plants in the poorer parts of the developing world. Billions still lack the cost-effective energy they need to live lives of abundance and safety, notes Epstein. Many people in developing countries still use wood and dung for cooking. Like Happer and Lindzen, he believes that if Net Zero is followed, “virtually all the world’s eight billion people will plunge into poverty and premature death”.

Much of what is planned is hiding in plain sight. The C40 group, funded by wealthy billionaires and chaired by London mayor Sadiq Khan, has investigated World War 2 style rationing with a daily meat allowance of 44g. Reduced private transport and massive restrictions on air travel have all been considered. Labour party member Khan has already made a cracking start on his elite paymasters’ concerns having recently driven many of the cars of the less affluent off London roads with specialist charging penalties.

Honesty rules the day at the U.K. Government-funded UK FIRES operation where Ivory Tower academics produce gruesomely frank reports showing that Net Zero would cut available energy by around three quarters. They assume, rightly, that there is no realistic technology currently available, or likely in the foreseeable future, to back up power sourced from the intermittent breezes and sun beams. No flying, no shipping, drastic cuts in meat consumption and no home heating are all discussed. A ruthless purge of modern building material is also proposed with traditional building supplies replaced by new materials such as “rammed earth”

A move back to primitivism is also foreshadowed by a recent United Nations report which suggested building using mud bricks, bamboo and forest ‘detritus’. It might be thought that mud and grass huts will hardly be enough to deter unfriendly foreign hordes that hove into future view on the horizon. And no point in asking the last person to turn out the lights, because there won’t be electricity anyway.

Chris Morrison is the Daily Sceptic’s Environment Editor.

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heme212
April 22, 2024 6:01 am

not everyone can be lucky enough to have a super large land owner nearby who happens to need their crops picked.

Reply to  heme212
April 22, 2024 6:12 am

Chris Packham Net Worth $4 Million

April 22, 2024 6:18 am

Alex Epstein not Alec

Reply to  John Aqua
April 22, 2024 7:34 am

one of my heroes!

Tusten02
April 22, 2024 6:35 am

That is the whole purpose as one of WEF’s secret goals is to radically reduce the population of the Earth

Reply to  Tusten02
April 22, 2024 8:29 am

The elites feel that too much of civilizations wealth, which they consider to be theirs, is being spent on the populace, and secondly that societal control is easier when the populace is in poverty…

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  DMacKenzie
April 22, 2024 9:27 am

Proven time and again throughout history.

iflyjetzzz
Reply to  Sparta Nova 4
April 22, 2024 11:23 am

Proven time and again throughout history until the proletariat violently rebel, usually resulting a thinning of the bourgoisie.

As far as mass starvation due to net zero, that’s a feature, not a bug. Any pushback from greenies on this fact is simply gaslighting.

AWG
Reply to  DMacKenzie
April 22, 2024 4:54 pm

The elites feel that too much of civilizations wealth, which they consider to be theirs, is being spent on the populace, and secondly that societal control is easier when the populace is in poverty…

That doesn’t explain the hundreds of billions of dollars and euros pumped regularly into Ukraine. That is money that is literally converted into mansions or set on fire.

“we spent ten billion on missiles and ammo”
“Oh, so you just blew up ten billion dollars plus whatever used to stand where the ammo was deployed.”

2hotel9
April 22, 2024 7:04 am

As many billions as leftist leaders want killed, that has always been their goal, massive reduction of human population. They want it done to what “they” can control.

Rick C
Reply to  2hotel9
April 22, 2024 9:12 am

Sure, but look at the bright side. That’s billions of future people who will not have to suffer the catastrophe of a slightly warmer world. We must suffer now to avert the suffering of future non-existent generations.

April 22, 2024 7:05 am

They view that as a feature, not a bug.

captainjtiberius
April 22, 2024 7:11 am

It’s all part of the plan. Ironically, people will freeze to death in the name of global warming when they can’t afford their heating bill or the grid fails. Win-Win for the leftists.

April 22, 2024 7:12 am

Packham undoes all the good he does for the environment by obsessing about “Climate Change”. I’m somewhat older than he is and I’ve not witnessed anything at all alarming happening to the climate in my lifetime and if anything it’s got better. I think the guy has lost his marbles.

antigtiff
April 22, 2024 7:20 am

Maybe the use of ground up discarded plastic items mixed in concrete and cast like huge Leggo blocks could be used in construction?

Reply to  antigtiff
April 22, 2024 7:34 am

Mixed into mud maybe remember concrete manufacturing requires fossil fuels. Net zero would cause the collapse of food production, transportation, medical acre and home heating. First winter we burn all the trees second winter we freeze.
Four billion deaths is conservative.

Reply to  antigtiff
April 22, 2024 7:36 am

Hopefully the intellectual giants of the WEF will step bare-footed onto your Lego construction blocks.

cimdave
Reply to  antigtiff
April 23, 2024 8:56 am

Maybe ground-up climate alarmists could also be mixed with the concrete.

J Boles
April 22, 2024 7:31 am

The billionaires want to make everything so expensive and scarce that only THEY can afford to live and the rest, well…

J Boles
Reply to  J Boles
April 22, 2024 8:16 am

Chris Packham should not throw stones from a glass house.

April 22, 2024 7:32 am

“they do not know people who actually make things, and when they meet them they often dislike them.”

dam deplorables! 🙂

if only Hillary could understand- that alone probably cost her the election- in a democracy, even a faulty one, you can’t insult ordinary people

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
April 22, 2024 9:29 am

Oh, but you can insult ordinary people. The trouble is recognizing that the ordinary people will not stand for the insults.

Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
April 22, 2024 1:09 pm

they do not know people who actually make things”

Of course not… most them are in China.

DD More
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
April 24, 2024 8:08 pm

“they do not know people who actually make things, and they often dislike them.”

And the Richie Rich’s don’t realize they themselves cannot farm or manufacture the things needed to survive. How long to they think They will last under those conditions?

April 22, 2024 7:43 am

In addition to energy net zero and food production drastically reduced- they also want no more tree harvesting. I suppose the thinking is that once you’re starving and living in a hut, you won’t need any wood products.

April 22, 2024 7:48 am

Four billion dead if artificial fertiliser is banned is not ‘BS’ “eliminating fossil fuel derived nitrogen fertiliser and pesticides will create worldwide starvation”. With the use of nitrogen fertiliser, crop yields around the world have soared.

_______________________________________________________________

The left wants to ban fertilizer because N2O is a greenhouse gas with a Global Warming Potential (GWP) of 273 times as powerful at trapping heat than CO2.

The GWP numbers have nothing to do with absorption spectrums and everything to do with the concentration of a greenhouse gas. The relationship is inverse:

CH4 1932 ppb GWP 86
N20 337 ppb GWP 273
CFC 4 ppb GWP ~8000

By 2100 or in 100 years, or if their concentrations double, CH4, N2O & CFCs will have no measurable effect on the Earth’s “Average” temperature. If anyone thinks that’s not true, and given that those gases are increasing every year, they should pipe-up and say how much the temperature rise would be.

Reply to  Steve Case
April 22, 2024 8:29 am

German, UK net-ZERO folks, and all other CO2-reduction/fossil-phobia fanatics have wasted many $trillions on hare-brained wind/solar/battery/EV/Heat Pump, etc., schemes
.
They have impoverished tens of millions of people in the process, because they are using THE TRUE FAITH, based on the “we own the science” proclamation, to tilt at windmills, i.e., “save the world”, but, in fact, serving their moneyed elites; a hoax to implement a scam
.
Their elites have made oodles of $billions in the process, FOR DECADES.
You will NEVER hear of a halt for building private planes and yachts!!
.
Excerpts from:
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/natural-forces-cause-periodic-global-warming
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/hunga-tonga-volcanic-eruption
.
Retained Energy in Atmosphere
.
Dry Air and Water Vapor
ha = Cpa x T = 1006 kJ/kg.C x T, where Cpa is specific heat of dry air
hg = (2501 kJ/kg, specific enthalpy of WV at 0 C) + (Cpwv x T = 1.84 kJ/kg x T), where Cpwv is specific heat of WV at constant pressure
.
1) Worldwide, determine enthalpy of moist air: T = 16 C and H = 0.0025 kg WV/kg dry air (4028 ppm)
h = ha + H.hg = (1.006T) + H(2501 + 1.84T) = 1.006 (16) + 0.0025 {2501 + 1.84 (16)} = 22.4 kJ/kg dry air
About 16.1 kJ/kg of dry air is retained by air and 6.3 kJ/kg by WV
.
2) Tropics, determine enthalpy of moist air: T = 27 C and H = 0.017 kg WV/kg dry air (27389 ppm)
h = 1.006 (27) + 0.017 {2501 + 1.84 (16)} = 70.5 kJ/kg dry air 
About 27.2 kJ/kg of dry air is retained by air and 43.3 kJ/kg by WV
https://www.wikihow.com/Calculate-the-Enthalpy-of-Moist-Air#:~:text=The%20equation%20for%20enthalpy%20is,specific%20enthalpy%20of%20water%20vapor.
.
CO2
h CO2 = Cp CO2 x K = 0.834 x (16 + 273) = 241 kJ/kg CO2, where Cp CO2 is specific heat 
.
Worldwide, determine enthalpy of CO2 = {(423 x 44)/(1000000 x 29 = 0.000642 kg CO2/kg dry air} x
241 kJ/kg CO2) 289 K = 0.155 kJ/kg dry air.
.
Retained energy, world: (16.1 + 6.3 + 0.155) kJ/kg dry air) x 1000j/kJ x 5.148 x 10^18 kg, atmosphere/10^18 = 1.161 x 10^5 EJ
.
Retained energy, Tropics: (27.2 + 43.3 + 0.155) kJ/kg dry air x 1000J/kJ x 2.049 x 10^18 kg, atmosphere/10^18 = 1,448 x 10^5 EJ. 
.
The Tropics is a giant energy storage area, almost all of it by evaporating water.
CO2 plays a 100 x (0.155/70.655) = 0.219% role.  
At least 35% of the Tropics energy is transferred, and replenished by the sun, 24/7/365, to areas north and south of the 37 parallels with energy deficits
Humans consumed 604/365 = 1.65 EJ/d, in 2022 

Rod Evans
April 22, 2024 8:01 am

The WEF target is to get to below one billion people living on planet Earth.
As they are calling all the shots in Western economies and controlling the finance available to developing economies, the figure of four billion lost due to Net Zero policies is a very low underestimation of what is to come in the second half of the century.
The reduction in new born residents plus the early deaths of the over fifties will bring populations down rapidly. It would be a catastrophic collapse, but by then it will seem normal policy so nothing to see here.
The good news is, those of us with $billions of dollars to fall back on will be among the survivors, providing the starving hoards have not found us and refused to provide us with our essential needs like food water and a head….

Sparta Nova 4
Reply to  Rod Evans
April 22, 2024 9:32 am

Add in the sterilization of kids in the name of trans inclusion and birth rate drops below replacement rate even at only 1 B population.

Reply to  Rod Evans
April 22, 2024 1:14 pm

I would have thought that a large population reduction would have exactly the same effect on their fortunes….

Their money comes from the general population, without it, they would have nothing.

Editor
Reply to  bnice2000
April 22, 2024 4:00 pm

You misunderstand them.The objective is for others to have less than they have – a lot less. So it’s not about increasing their wealth, it’s about increasing others’ poverty.

Reply to  Rod Evans
April 22, 2024 4:59 pm

1 billion is about right.

5,000 of us, with a police/military of 15,000 each, & served by about 150,000 serfs, with another 35,000 service workers for the military.

… won’t ever need to be directly exposed to anyone like Richard Greene or Alan J. Well worth it.

My early apologies to the rest of you that don’t make it.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Rod Evans
April 23, 2024 5:34 am

yeah funny how after so many years they managed to blow up the Georgia guidestones during covid, one of the events that would(someone hoped?) start a big pop redux

observa
April 22, 2024 8:11 am

How Many Billions of People Would Die Under Net Zero?
None because we’ll all be dead from the dooming long before that. Is this a trick question?

Someone
Reply to  observa
April 22, 2024 11:16 am

All people will die regardless of Net Zero.

strativarius
April 22, 2024 8:26 am

Packham never grew up

Around 400 Red Rebels, with BBC TV presenter Chris Packham will march through the centre of Bath in a ‘funeral for nature’
https://www.somersetlive.co.uk/news/somerset-news/live-extinction-rebellion-protest-march-9236632

There’s no point bleating about the future of pandas, polar bears and tigers when we’re not addressing the one single factor that’s putting more pressure on the ecosystem than any other — namely the ever-increasing size of the world’s population. Chris Packham
https://populationmatters.org/our-patrons/

April 22, 2024 9:16 am

I wonder if the billionaires realize their wealth is totally dependent on the amount of people in the world. As population drops there are less people to buy products, land (homes), Netflix, etc. There are less people to repair what they might keep, less to grow crops they might eat, less to hire to maintain their income.

it is stunning how short sighted some of these folks are.

iflyjetzzz
Reply to  mkelly
April 22, 2024 11:39 am

The billionaire class will simply say, ‘let them eat cake.’

I have fantasies of John Kerry and others’ heads mounted on pikes being paraded through the streets.

Bob
April 22, 2024 9:32 am

The CAGW crowd has nothing but lies and cheating. They need to be stopped now.

April 22, 2024 9:54 am

Scaremongering

Reply to  MyUsername
April 22, 2024 11:50 am

Brilliant rebuttal, as usual.

Reply to  MyUsername
April 22, 2024 1:22 pm

“Scaremongering”

yep… that is what has led to all the Net-Zero nonsense, scaremongering about tiny beneficial changes in climate

It is what holds everything in your evil, degenerate AGW-cult religion together.

Guess what, Luser…

There is no climate crisis.

There is absolutely zero necessity to reduce CO2 emissions.

There is absolutely no need to destroy western civilisation with idiotic “climate” policies.

Your whole putrid religious cult is based on LIES, MALINFORMATION…

… and above all….

SCAREMONGERING !

Reply to  MyUsername
April 22, 2024 2:06 pm

Wow! That makes us just like you.

Hypocrite!

Reply to  MyUsername
April 22, 2024 3:57 pm

So no-one will die under “Net-Zero”?
Farms will still produce tons of food without fertilizer or reliable means to plant, maintain, harvest and process the crop? How many miles a day do those heavy machines rack per day as they run back and forth and back and forth over those, sometimes VERY, large fields?

And heat in winter. A blizzard hits at night. No solar power. No wind power in blizzard conditions. How long would the green dream of batteries last at grid scale? 4, 5 hours at best? How many nights are only that long? (Winters at night, when heat is needed, are usually longer than summer winters.)

April 22, 2024 10:33 am

Packham, Attenborough are members of “Population Matters” AKA the Optimum Trust who mistakenly published a spreadsheet showing the optimum population for each country. The spreadsheet can be found here.

Interestingly, the biggest cull of humans is in all those black, brown and yellow-skinned countries, isn’t it?

NotBob43
April 22, 2024 10:55 am

The Image “Life Without Oil” is not quite accurate either; 46% of the crude oil is not made into gasoline, it is made into gasoline, jet fuel, diesel fuel, and other distillates.

April 22, 2024 11:50 am

I have been advocating for some group to count the casualties that are already occurring. The ‘elite’ perpetrators of the WEF, world institutions taken over by groomed ideologues, the shock troops heading our repurposed K to PhD education conspiracy, etc., easily cover up theircrimes with the collusion of the mass media and the re-witers of history as we go along.

An example of this instant cover up revisionism is the case of Sri Lanka. At the climate bunfest in Glasgow, Sri Lanka’s head of state volunteered in a speech his country as a crash test dummy for banning fertilizers and insecticides. In one year their large tea cash crop failed entirely and vegetables for the country’s food and animal feed did poorly.

The country went from a prosperous one to a bankrupt failed state in a year. The head of state had to be rescued by helicopter to an offshore ship from from his palace which was set ablaze by swarms of angry citizens. Millions(?) died.

The experiment? It was a success! What followed was EU banning manufacturered N-fertilizer. Canada restricting its use! Revised fake news then layered over old news reports to blame deep Sri Lankan government corruption for the collapse and rioting. The perps couldn’t leave this piece of forensic evidence uncompromised!

We should have been counting years ago. What devastation has the perpetrators’ artificially created fossil fuel inflation, blocked access to oil and gas resources, market interference, evil-purposed regulations on the industry wrought on the billions of the poorest who were at the margin before the crippling engineered global inflation was perpetrated? It must be many hundreds of millions of casualties already!

RMoore
April 22, 2024 1:28 pm

Check out the group ‘Job One for Humanity’
Tenets:
number one problem the world has is too many people. Carrying Capacity is 1 billion.

Tony Tea
April 22, 2024 2:45 pm

#TeamHydrocarbon here.

rhs
April 22, 2024 2:57 pm

Thank goodness the elites would be among the first to go.
Either by their ignorance of farming or the near instantaneous peasant uprising.

Editor
Reply to  rhs
April 22, 2024 4:04 pm

Maybe. But surely the most notable feature is that the elites never volunteer to be the first to go.

rhs
Reply to  Mike Jonas
April 22, 2024 8:03 pm

They won’t volunteer to go first so much as being volun-told.

April 22, 2024 4:17 pm

Global warming?

The Earth is still in a 2.5 million-year ice age with around 10 times as many people dying from the cold as the heat and 90% of the fresh water locked up in glaciers and polar ice caps.