Essay by Eric Worrall
h/t Breitbart; Another nail in the coffin of the Electric Vehicle revolution.
Ford to trim workforce at plant that builds its F-150 Lightning as sales of electric vehicles slow
by: The Associated Press
Posted: Mar 28, 2024 / 07:58 AM EDT
Updated: Mar 28, 2024 / 07:58 AM EDTDETROIT (AP) — Ford will drastically cut the number of hourly workers at its factory that builds the Ford F-150 Lightning as sales of electric vehicles slow, according to a media report.
Ford began the year by cutting production of the F-150 Lightning electric pickup after weaker-than-expected electric vehicle sales growth.
While EV sales are growing in the U.S., the pace is falling well short of the industry’s ambitious timetable and many consumers are turning to hybrid vehicles instead.
…
Read more: https://www.woodtv.com/news/michigan/ford-to-trim-workforce-at-plant-that-builds-its-f-150-lightning-as-sales-of-electric-vehicles-slow/
When I first clicked on the EV article (the Breitbart copy), an advertisement popped up offering a discount cremation service. I sure hope this is not because a funeral provider has found a new use for discarded EVs.
On a serious note, my heart goes out to the workers who put their faith in Ford Management’s defective strategic vision, and retrained as EV production line workers. This is not the prosperous future they were promised.
The $32,000 that Ford loses on each Lightning truck might have something to do with the layoffs.
$32K less than cost and still nobody wants one.
This is what is going to happen with all the “plenty of green jobs” when the imminent spectacular crash of renewable grids takes place. In Europe, peak renewable power output occurred in 2017!! This peak was mentioned in 2019 when panic to secure nat gas began and Germany was bulldozing over part of a windmill farm to expand a coal mine to feed a mothballed thermal electrical generating plant being refitted.
Since, no word on this subject. Indeed, they also in 2019 reported a backlog of 47 Gwatts of spent farms to be decommissioned. And during this period investors were backing away from green investments and 8 manufacturers of green power went bankrupt. Today it’s the big guys like Siemens, Oersted, etc. facing extinction. Even though they have built some more “farms” total electrical output has been declining.
How do you explain the increased production since 2017?
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/primary-energy-wind?tab=chart&country=~OWID_EUR
Most has been electricity based not real manufacturing based. That’s why the EU is building c70GWH of new generation capacity from gas, why the UK is backing offnet zero and why countries like Australia are in a real mess with energy
The $32,000 does NOT represent the loss on each Lightning sale
That number comes from total EV spending in 2Q 2023 divided by the total number of EVs Ford sold in 2Q 2023.
You have no idea what the specifics are for each Lightning
Much of the EV spending in 2023 was for engineering and other upfront costs such as building a battery factory, for products not yet on sale.
Now you can add to that the cost of Ford’s portion of the unemployment insurance payouts.
The incremental cost of producing one more vehicle on an automobile assembly is totally irrelevant. The much more massive costs of designing, tooling and developing the design overwhelms incremental production cost. No model lasts long enough that the incremental assembly cost becomes relevant. Do you want to buy a brand new 1971 Ford Pinto?
But they’ll make it up in volume….
Hopefully this will wake the people of Michigan enough to not vote Democrat in November. Biden’s unilateral EPA rules will just hasten the new Chinese / Mexican EV alliance, and utterly kill US jobs. Their union should be ashamed for standing with Biden
Based on that, Trump anticipates an angry reaction from the Auto union members.
The voters don’t matter as much. Sufficient ballots with the “correct choices” will be fabricated to create a “win” for the Democrats.
Isn’t that one of the things Trump is in court now for trying to do?
No. Where do you get your “facts”?
Not in the slightest. Why don’t you try rejoining the real world?
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2024/03/28/brian-pritchard-georgia-illegal-voting/73135511007/
More propaganda for the weak minded.
Wake up the people of Michigan? Are you kidding? The people of Michigan (and their elected officials) have run the worlds largest manufacturing industry out of the U.S. mid-west! They’ve destroyed huge numbers of family jobs and managed to vote for gov’t to raise minimum wages of entry-level jobs to replace the jobs THEY cost. Detroit’s population has gone from 1.85M in 1950 to 640K in 2020. The state’s population has at least held steady for the past 25 years…maybe.
Don’t get me started on the corrupt criminal enterprise referred to as the union.
China built ghost cities, Biden builds ghost industries.
A lot of context data missing here/
And Lightning sales are not a proxy for the global EV industry.
In February 2024, Ford BEV sakes were up 80% over February 2023
In the United States, Ford F-150 Lightning deliveries totaled 11,905 units in Q4 2023, an increase of about 74 percent compared to 6,857 units sold in Q4 2022.
During the complete 2023 calendar year, F-150 Lightning sales increased about 55 percent to 24,165 units.
February 2024 versus February 2023:
Ford F-150 Lightning:
4,836 sold (up 34%)
Ford did not announce a cut of actual Lightening production late last year. They announced their planned 160,000 2024 production target was cut to 80,000 units.
In comments at the time, I said Fordd might have to cut the 80,000 target for 2024 in half to better match sales. Now I think it may be possible to sell 80,000 Lightnings if the price is lowered by another $5000
A big, heavy, expensive pickup truck is the worst possible use for batteries. Batteries work best in tiny, lightweight, urban cars used for short trips and never carrying heavy loads. Even then, ICE and hybrid vehicles are better
“Of the 2,100 workers who make up three work crews at the Dearborn facility, a third will remain, Enoch told the Detroit Free Press. Ford will transfer 700 workers to the Michigan Assembly Plant in Wayne to build the Bronco and Ranger. The remaining 700 workers will either take a retirement package offered during last year’s contract talks with the United Auto Workers, or will take a reassignment in southeast Michigan. Ford is adding a third crew at Michigan Assembly, the paper reported.”
Ford sold just over 24,000 Lightnings last year, up 55% from 2022. But dealers are reporting slower sales and rising inventories on the electric truck, which starts at just under $50,000.
They originally planned 160,000 Lightnings in 2024, was then lowered that to 80,000 planned. Still more than triple 2023 sales.
Sounds like Ford lowered their planned 2024 builds again. Even the basic Lightning version is too expensive. The high end versions have rip off prices.
Sold, just means that they have been delivered to the dealers. Where they still sit.
And the re-sale value of one of these after 2-3 years of “tradie” use… ?
Scrap value only would be my guess.
But I doubt very much that real “tradies” are actually buying them….
… probably just inner-city *ankers trying to make a self-aggrandizing virtue-statement.
Scrap?? I’m guessing you may have to pay for somebody to take them off your hands.
That’s exactly what sold means in the auto industry except for Tesla which has no dealers buying Teslas..
So you admit that your claims do not mean what you want them to mean.
My claims were trie facts that upset the EV haters here.
EV sales (including PHEVs) are now about 20% of global light vehicle sales. This fact makes EV haters go berserk.
I have recommended many hundreds of anti-EV articles on my blog, would never buy one and resent them being forced on the US population — that’s fascism
But reporting actual EV sales is just good journalism, not EV cheerleading.
Off you go, dickie-bot… get yourself a F-Lightning as an ego status symbol.
Enjoy the near total loss of value over only a few years.
It is what you want… and deserve.
You tried to claim that these “sales” meant that EVs were still being bought by the public. However your data did not support the position you had taken.
I love the way you ridicule everyone who points to facts you don’t want to see, as being haters. Do you sit alone at night, quietly nursing your beer, wondering why no one calls?
First “sakes”, and now “trie”. More care needed.
I have read that sales of Ford hybrids are increasing partly because they have cleverly fitted them with a number of socket outlets, both AC and DC, so that tradesmen can power or charge their tools and tail gate picnicers can run TV’s, lights etc from them.
The figure of 80K EV lightnings is close to only 10% of ICE F range sales – a drop in the ocean.
Yes. The Ford hybrid F-150 feature is called Pro Power Onboard. Means your hybrid truck becomes the construction site generator.
Note (for anyone thinking that EV’s are a viably meaningful power source): that generator is, thus, a GASOLINE (or diesel) -powered generator.
Heh, heh, HEH!
And is a very, very expensive alternative to a petrol or diesel generator. Just stick a genny and a couple of fuel cans in the back of an ICE pickup – far cheaper.
Well, RP, no. Not correct. I just looked it up because own a Ford hybrid Escape since many years. Ford like Toyota is very clever with its hybrids. Numbers are for MY 2023.
The F-150 3.5L V6 standard and 3.5L V6 hybrid have the SAME base price $36770. Trick is, the hybrid has significantly more total (towing) power because of the hybrid 35kw hybrid boost, and gets mpg24 versus the standard 3.5L at 20.
The towing power comparable standard F-150 has a 5L V8 with mpg17 and a base price of $38134.
So the correct comparison is hybrid gets 7mpg more yet costs $1364 less than the comparable F-150 standard. A really cheap built in generator plus fuel savings.
BTW, when we bought our MY 2007 hybrid Escape, it was about the same clever Ford pricing with a twist. The Escape I4 hybrid premium was exactly $3000 over the tow power comparable Escape V6. That got paid back on day 1 by the then federal hybrid tax credit of exactly $3000. And without doing the math, the vehicle has since saved us about $14,000 in fuel since 50% better mpg using regular not premium.
And 17 years later, the NiMH traction battery is still going strong. Last couple of years, developed a bit of starting compartment leakage current so voltage drops below 350 min (nom is 390) if sits more than a week. You have to reach down and push the semi hidden ‘starter button’ Ford provided for just this aging issue. Button turns green in about a second after voltaging up from the much bigger traction compartment, and good to go.
The additional PbA ‘SLA’ is only for LA, and lasts much longer (~8-9 years instead of ~4) because is not used for S. We replaced it once in 17 years.
What are the alternatives to a Ford Lightning ICE pickup – you’ll have noticed I used the words ‘an ICE pickup’ NOT ‘Ford ICE pickup’ there, no doubt – indicating a generic pickup of a similar type, not specifically the same type. A nit-pick I know, but quite a significant one I think.
None. Nobody else was foolish enough to try one.
Just stick a Cummins diesel or a 5.9L V8 under the hood and a 25pound fuel tank in the rear and skip the middleman
“Means your hybrid truck becomes the construction site generator.”
And can’t be driven home at the end of the day because its “empty”….. Great !!
Hybrids kick in the engine when the battery gets low. My Ford hybrid battery stays in the range 45-55% charged. 17 years and battery still going strong because of that. So no problem with the hybrid F-150. It is mainly the 3.5L V6 engine doing the generating via its 35kw hybrid electric machine. Just don’t run out of gas.
A question. (Not a trick one.)
Is the battery Ni-MH or Lithium Hydride?
Looked it up. MY 2023 F-150 hybrid is a 1.5KWh LiIon.
So you are running the 3.5L V6 as a generator.. Fossil Fuel powered.
And you have to leave the F-150 turned on all day so the FF engine can turn on when needed.
Sounds like a very silly way of doing things, especially when you could just use a transportable generator.
No. In all hybrids, the engine only turns on (automatically) when the battery voltage drops below its design spec for max lifetime. So at least part of the time, the ‘Pro Power Onboard’ is just the battery with the engine off. Engine on/off will depend on plugged in power tool usage.
There’s worse things than being empty. One site I worked on the newest labourer was given the task of keeping the 4 genny’s topped up. He didn’t drive so, after filling them up with fuel, he then proceeded to do the same with the oil – exactly the same. The entire site filled with thick black smoke and every surface for weeks after had black soot on it.
“Thanks, mate. Yeah, you did what we told you to do.” Site Manager
displacing the 5k generator you could have used.
If I were in the market for a new pickup, I would seriously consider a hybrid, and since all my trucks since 1980 have been fords, it would be the F-150 hybrid. However, my 09 (ex forest service) F-150 is still doing the job(s) that I bought it for, I suspect it will be more than a couple of years before I want another vehicle mortgage.
I wish I still had my 1992 F150. A good reliable properly sized truck that doesn’t need a staircase in the tailgate to get into the bed.
At my Wisconsin dairy farm I have an old MY1993 (still fairly low milage) F-250 HD with 2wd/4wd selector with annoying hub backup lock in. If ever replace it, it will be with an F-150 hybrid AWD with Pro Power Onboard. Man how many times that would have been useful doing chores in the fields and forests.
One perspective is they saturated a market that was not nearly as vast as assumed.
Analysis of alternatives. Rarely presented in the new media.
“not nearly as vast” — TRANSLATION: tiny.
Another translation – HALF-VAST
The Ford EV sales projections were what top management wanted to hear, which is always a problem in a large corporation
Did you hear Boeing’s new slogan?
“One door closes, another opens.”
“One door closes, another opens.”
Certain not what I would want for a passenger aircraft !!
Looking at the picture above of the burning Lightning reminded me of Richard’s explanation that the truck was equipped with the tailgate barbecue option, but that the burgers were all seriously overdone.
Slow down there hoss – Ford, at full output levels, can produce 150,000 Ford Lightning EV’s from it’s Rouge Electric Vehicle Centre. Now the problem is that, unless a factory achieves 75-80% of it’s maximum production, it is making a loss. The figures you’re quoting are around 50% of the production (80,000) and sales figures seems to indicate less than that are being sold. They are already selling at a loss, suggesting a $5,000 drop in price would be a ‘going out of business’ fire sale – it might yet happen but it would be the end of the Ford Lightning EV and, possibly, Ford EV’s. Now let’s see the figures for the Ford Mustang Mach-E after they announced a potential doubling of production to 210,000 Mach-E’s in 2023 (Ford were aiming for a total EV annual production run of 360,000 in 2023).
Maximum capacity at the Lightening plant with three shifts was 150,000. If they are going down to one shift next month the maximum capacity would be 50,000 units year
The Lightening started 2022 at $40,000 and now starts at $55,000 for the 2024 model, up +37.5% in two years. There is no mystery of why sales are slow.
Learn how to spell lightning.
So you just repeated what I said. They are operating at a loss producing 33% of production below the breakeven point of 75-80% of production. There’s no mystery why they were forced to increase the price of the Lightning, just a mystery as to how Ford thought they could keep sales volume up at those prices.
So Ford should cut the price by $5k and sell half as many. Let’s see: $32,000 x 160,000 = $5.12B – $37,000 x 80,000 = $2.16B. Brilliant -that will cut their losses by almost $3 billion.
Companies cut prices to sell more products, not fewer. Fixed costs per vehicle decline as sales rise. A price cut can result in smaller losses per vehicle sold. Ford will decide if a price cut would be beneficial for the company. That will depend on both financial data and any public relations side effects
Companies also cut prices to get rid of excess inventory, as well as make room for a new product.
I don’t think Ford is making room for a new product.
Ford sales for F series trucks in 2023 750,000. 24,000 were the Lightning. Roughly 3%?
If you are a die hard believer in the future being owned by EV, then this means the future looks unbelievable for growth, ironically same viewpoint we realists have,but for different reasons
That makes 24,000 suckers.
But it was their money to spend
That’s true, however, just one of the externalities of these sucker’s decision to spend on EV’s manifests as higher taxes and/or borrowing in order for the rest of us to subsidize these suckers.
More than 59,000 customers took delivery of a Mustang in 2023, contributing to the nearly 1 million pony cars Ford has delivered in the past decade.
In 2023, F-Series grew 15% to 750,789 customers Do the simple math 800,000 ICE vehicles vs
4,836 sold evs. Yeah, those electric vehicles are really catching on, in 5-10 years they might be up to 1% of total sales
EV sales are still growing
Your 1% estimate for 5 or 10 years ahead is ignorant claptrap
Globally, around 1-in-7 new cars sold was electric in 2022 (the preliminary estimate for 2023 is around 1-in-5).
Richard might be right about this one. The Federal Government might outlaw ICE vehicles in the next 5-10 years. Bribem’s dumb enough to do that. In that case, even if only 4,836 EVs are sold, they will be 100% of the market.
Now tell me how many of those EV’s are actually in service rather than just using misleading sales figures.
Are those figures you are using in the above post, figures for the FORD vehicles?
The 32 downvotes so far prove many readers here are allergic to facts they are not capable of refuting because the data are accurate.
Nappy change time for dickie !
Facts have sometime to do with it, but the buttons are more reflective of whether one generally likes the comment or not, unless of course one is a masochist.
I just love the way you describe your interpretation of facts, to be facts themselves.
I also love the way that you actually believe that only the facts you present are facts.
Ford should cut their losses and get out of EVs
But….
It is not just that BEVs aren’t selling well. The Lightning was ill conceived from the beginning. Pickup trucks are by and large work trucks. The Lightning cannot do the work. The consequences were inevitable.
I had a funny feeling a few years ago when I heard FORD was putting so much money in to a factory to build EVs, but I figured that the Gooberment was giving money to FORD and promising to mandate EV purchases by the public. No surprise to hear it is all grinding to a stop. Schadenfreude. For such a vehicle to be anywhere near useful the entire bed of the pick up would have to carry a HUGE heavy battery.
The Biden maladministration has just announced revamped EPA rules for truck emissions.
Mandating BEV class 8 trucks that do not exist will not end well.
A few years back the EPA tried to fine refineries for failing to use a gasoline additive that didn’t exist.
The courts ruled in favor of the refineries that time, give the Democrats a few more years to finish packing the courts, and they will start ruling that if the EPA mandates an additive that doesn’t exist, it is the legal responsibility of the refineries to make the additive exist.
Physical impossibility is no excuse.
Heck, you mean one won’t be able to plow snow non stop all night in a blizzard? 🙂
Just wait until all that salt in the EV plow trucks bed gets to the wiring.😱😱
Then it will melt the snow!
(And the asphalt.)
And could keep you warm possibly for weeks👍😁
Or for the rest of your life. 😱
“Pickup trucks are by and large work trucks.”
That claim is false.
It’s true that there are a fraction of pick up trucks driven by underendowed rhinestone cowboys. However, the sentiment that trucks have a work/utility component to their value as a vehicle is undeniably true.
Personally, when I had my small Nissan hardbody PU with a manual transmission, and living in Texas, I used it mainly as a commuter, but when I needed to haul some gravel, tree limbs, an appliance, etc., that capability was of great value.
I would love to purchase something similar today, smallish 4WD or AWD with a manual transmission, seating for four and a bed with a cover, that could be used for utility and recreation, such as hauling, off roading, and traveling to ski areas. Such a vehicle could be popular in mountain states like Colorado. I’m hopeful that perhaps Subaru will introduce something like that. Their discontinued Baja was close but was too car like.
Oversized emotional support vehicles
Perhaps that’s your problem.
“emotional support vehicles”
Which is why inner-city *ankers like you would buy an EV one.
Desperately seeking virtue. !!
I live in a small town that is in a mostly rural area.
A lot of pickup trucks that I see around here look as if they have never seen a speck of mud on the exterior. While there are also quite a few others that show more mud than paint.
On the other hand, every time we put together a moving party, there are quite a few clean as a whistle pick up trucks showing up to help haul the furniture. Just because they have never been off-road is not proof that they aren’t work trucks.
Guy three doors down from me is a chippy.
His pick-up/ute is either full of timber and tools.. or empty and immaculately clean.
Yup. My Wisconsin dairy farm old F-250 HD got washed exactly once a year. The day after we stopped hauling hunted deer to the processor, to get the blood out of the cargo bed. Looked good muddy. Now we did have to occasionally clean the windshield and wipers.
I’m essentially repeating a comment I saw last week, because it so accurately summed up what I was already thinking… Where’s the automotive industry CEO, or maybe even just wannabe CEO, with the cajones to tell his board: To make a profit we must satisfy our customers. We will build all the ICE rear wheel drive muscle cars, in ALL configurations (sports car, family sedan, mini-van, luxury vehicle, SUV, pickup truck, etc.) that our customers will buy, and if the guvahmint finds we haven’t met their arbitrary “fleet standards”, well that’s just part of the cost of doing business, we’ll have the money to pay them and continue running a successful business. Wanna bet that company is the only one that can show a profit next year?
I recall several months ago reading about Ford CEO Jim Farley taking a cross country trip in a 150 Lightning and discovering, to his shock, that the thing wasn’t fit for purpose. His comments at the time went something like, “it was a really good reality check of the challenges our customers go through”.
So, Ford’s been making the Lightning since what, 2021, and that was the FIRST TIME the CEO had driven it. WTF! And this guy is still employed. I’m afraid Ford is in for a rough time.
No but it’s the future many of us expected. Not ready for prime time I’m afraid!
The United States Ford website has the following banner at the top of its front page.
Enjoy up to $15,000 on a 2023 F-150 Lightning XLT Extended Range with $7,500 in Retail Bonus Cash,* plus $7,500 in potential federal tax credit for eligible buyers (not all customers qualify)
Obviously doing everything they can to get the F150 Lightning off their dealer lots.
And…. if THAT is “everything they can” do….. they might as well call one of those charities that advertise that they will come and “take your car, running or not!”
At least, the dealer could get a charitable deduction …… er…… uh, oh. Nope, probably not. They would only get to deduct the $ amount of the sale proceeds….
I wonder what the depreciation rate on an F-150 Lightning is, if used in the way I’ve seen many tradies use their big utes and work vans.
My guess is they would be absolutely un-sellable.
An almost complete loss of the initial investment.
That’s all right, bnice, it’ll never reach that stage, never you worry. At the very first bang or bump that Ford Lightning will be written off and sent to be stripped out. It’s a win-win, they’ll never get to the point of being resold!
STORY TIP:
https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/bidens-greenhouse-gas-emissions-rule-for-vehicles-struck-down-by-texas-judge-5617804?ea_src=frontpage&ea_med=lead-special-courts-medium-0
God, bless Texas.
Unfortunately, it is neither of the new EPA emission rules meant to force EVs.
It was a crazy new DoT reg requiring states to report estimated federal highway emissions monthly. Meaning they would literally have to count 24/7 the cars and trucks on them. DoT does not have any emissions mandate from Congress.
Here’s another reminder of what happens when manufacturers and governments listen too much to academics and alarmists without assessing consumer demand properly. If the EV proponents had tested their products extensively enough and had come clean from the outset about their excessive pricing, unproven reliability, low resale value, limited cruising range and various other shortcomings, they wouldn’t have been left having to scale back production as we’re increasingly seeing. Mind you, governments are just as culpable because proper estimates predicted from the outset that unless EVs sold very quickly and in huge numbers, they’d have a negligible effect on carbon emissions in the first place. But when taxpayers’ dollars are available to subsidize questionable clean energy initiatives, why would politicians worry?
Before antibiotics such as penicillin were developed, sulfa drugs or other treatments were used on open wounds or to treat infections.
Once penicillin was discovered and shown to work, no one called for those other treatments to be banned.
The Greens have heard of wind and solar and are calling for the ban of Fossil-Fuel and Nuclear before Green stuff has proven it actually works.
Keep Government (and it’s cash and subsidies) out of it and let the market decide.
OH! and PS: CO2 is NOT a pollutant.
you may not be able to show up at your job 3 bitter cold days per year, but the taxes will still be due.
story tip: https://the-pipeline.org/hertz-no-longer-no-1-for-a-good-reason/
Another EV gamble that failed.by an obviously delusional/status seeking/grifting CEO. I am beginning to see a trend here.
Everyone here should also checkout; the Ace of Spades HQ blog, it a very good read.
https://ace.mu.nu/
After that last time, I thought that the coffin nail metaphor was forbidden!
I don’t think that February has ever been a great month for vehicle sales, but this move was inevitable after the last quarter. Remembering that in these figures “sales” are shipments to dealers, and not contracts for purchase by customers, that last bunch that was pushed out are sitting at dealerships, and much too costly to mark down. Ford has done similarly in the past, although more quietly and on a smaller scale, with other truck offerings such as the panel-delivery electric Transit. The difference being that the lightning F-150 comes off a dedicated final assembly line, whereas the E-Transit comes off lines that can also produce gasoline, diesel, and hybrid vehicles, and the shift in production quotas can be absorbed without cutting work hours.
It may be that the isolated production line for the F-150 is a good risk management move. Demand can’t be forced, and Ford had to know that the market was near saturated at the off. Keeping these cuts to one site might protect the rest of the production machine.
Ford’s ICE vehicles are keeping it afloat as EVs are a huge drag on the bottom line.
The UK as canary…
We can assume the Labour Party gets in to power in about November, and reinstates the total ban on ICE cars from 2030. Hybrids permitted until 2035, They also keep the progressive fines of £15,000 per car on any ICE car sold over quota, where the quotas for EVs are:
2024: 22% (so no more than 78% ICE)
2028: 50%
2030: 80%
Vans are worse. £9,000 penalty per vehicle in the first year, with this figure rising to £18,000 in 2030.
What will happen?
We can judge from current sales that there will be a private buyer strike. Or at least slowdown. Fleet sales are holding up at the moment and will probably continue to. From the search engine perplexity.ai, drawing on various sources:
The Labour Party has also continued to claim it will deliver net zero in power generation by 2030, something which is pure fantasy, at least if they are also trying to keep a reliable electricity supply.
There are not that many alternatives. They could blink, either on the car and van quotas or on the net zero plan. If they keep on with the net zero plan, the only way to achieve it will be turning off the remaining reliable generation, so the country will end up with repeated blackouts and power rationing to try to minimize them. The power rationing will not exactly encourage people to buy electric cars!
If they keep on with the car policy private buyers will probably continue to refuse to buy them new. And will resist buying them used. So used EV prices will fall. What this will do to the leasing companies?
I suspect the way this will get fudged is easing of restrictions on mild hybrids coupled with build out of gas generation with the claim that its for backup and is an interim step only. Continued failure of the wind farm tenders. Rise in electricity prices. But the thing is, this is getting very close to the edge We are getting to a situation where one wrong step can lead to a disastrous recession, driven by a combination of unreliable electricity supply and falling mobility.
The key policy insanity which the UK is committed to is that it proposes to at least double demand while at the same time moving to wind and solar, which will lower supply and make it unreliable. Its not just the UK, the problem is the same for any country seriously trying to do what the UK is doing, get to Net Zero overall. What the UK is doing is perfectly logical given its end goal, its just that it cannot be done while preserving anything like present lifestyles. This last is the variable no-one ever talks about, but given they will not budge on supply or technology, this is the one that will give way.
On cars and vans, I can imagine buyer resistance reaching the point where the used EVs coming on the market from the fleet buyers fall well below that of a comparable used ICE car or van. Which will accurately reflect their value to buyers, but there is a niche of older driver, low mileage pottering around in rural areas, maybe some cities, where they make sense.
Going to be an interesting, cold and isolated few years. The wild card in the UK is political resistance, through the only party to explicitly repudiate the Net Zero program: Reform. Watch Reform’s performance in November. It will be a good indicator of how this is all going to turn out.
Labour is going for closer ties with Europe so if the EU backs down on some of their Net Zero policies then Labour may do the same. Time will tell, even if the next few years get painful.
thats funny! buy an EV and you save on the cost of cremation..what a selling point!!
Are the BBC waking up?
Essex Fire Brigade/Department
“The crews bracing themselves for a rise in electric car fires”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-66866327
Fifteen years from now every electric car you see will be worthless.
I would say, a lot less than 15 years.
Already signs that EV’s only 3-4 years old are just not wanted by the second-hand market.
The problem area is not the residuals at 15 years but at 5 years.
If the performance of the batteries is such that range and risk of failure start to rise then the less well healed will be in a quandary.
I pick that the value of 15 year old petrol cars will be robust and any Govt. who tries to take cars of the workers will literally be eaten.
People eat each other at the survival threshold.
Regarding the new center party it may be a factor but under a first past the post system any vote aggregate under 30% is worthless.
The UK has a serious problem and the Tories are the idiots who should have held out against the CAGW fools.
Take the government out of the transportation business and all of this madness goes away.