Susan Crockford
Officially, the maximum winter sea ice extent for 2024 was 15.01 mkm2, reached on 14 March. At an unimpressive “14th lowest” on record, this is astounding news for the winter following the “hottest year on record.” Undeterred, the US government headline writers at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) today went for “Arctic sea ice reaches a below-average maximum.” Note the long-term average (1981-2010) is only 15.65 mkm2 and 15.01 is within 2 standard deviations (see below, screencapped 14 March 2024).
This is what the sea ice maximum extent of 15.01 mkm2 looked like on 14 March this year:
From NOAA’s 17 January 2024 report on the “hottest year on record” [my bold] on global temperatures:
The year 2023 was the warmest year since global records began in 1850 at 1.18°C (2.12°F) above the 20th-century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F). This value is 0.15°C (0.27°F) more than the previous record set in 2016. The 10 warmest years in the 174-year record have all occurred during the last decade (2014–2023). Of note, the year 2005, which was the first year to set a new global temperature record in the 21st century, is now the 12th-warmest year on record. The year 2010, which had surpassed 2005 at the time, now ranks as the 11th-warmest year on record.
According to today’s data from today’s NSIDC report (shown below), the lowest maximum extents were reached in 2015-2018 (14.82-14.52), with 2016 being an especially warm El Nino year. It makes sense that 2017 was the lowest, since it followed the very warm summer of 2016.
However, the max extent for winter 2023 was not far behind, which is odd considering that according to NOAA, warm La Nina conditions didn’t kick in until June 2023. March ice extent for 2023 (now the 5th lowest) was still being influenced by the cold La Nina conditions that prevailed in 2021 and 2022 (2021 now 8th lowest, 2022 now 11th lowest, at 14.88, not shown).
And now 2024 max extent is the 14th lowest, following the warmest global temperature since 1850 was reached in summer of 2023?
Rarely mentioned is that 2005-2007 (weak El Nino/El Nino years) were all below this year’s extent of 15.01 and 2006 and 2007 were both among the 10 lowest extents listed above (2005 was 14.95; 2006 was 14.68, 2007 was 14.77).
It’s almost like Arctic sea ice extent in winter has almost no relationship with global temperatures!
Air has a puny heat content so no surprise
And indeed whether the planet’s air contains more, or less, heat than it did at the outset of the widespread use of thermometers in the late 1800s is unknown. You cannot assess the heat content of air in the absence of measured water vapor. And there is no meaningful global mean water vapor average during this period. Tell this to a climatist/warmunista and stand back. The hand-waving as they explain that they know the air contains more heat gets intense.
Arctic sea ice extent yesterday was the same as for average of 2001-10. It was about equal to 2004.
How is that even possible, alarmists?
Max in 1974 was 14.4 million sq kilos, more than half million lower than today.
Thank you Dr Crockford. I always read and enjoy your posts.
By my calculations the last 8 years the sea ice extent in the Arctic has been trending up.
I got the data from
https://masie_web.apps.nsidc.org/pub/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/seaice_analysis/Sea_Ice_Index_Monthly_Data_by_Year_G02135_v3.0.xlsx
As shown on a previous post…Arctic sea ice extent has been remarkably stable now for some 20 years.
It is water temperature that has most of the effect on the floating ice condition along with winds moving them around when the AMO starts its long downward trend the Arctic Sea ice should begin to get cooler water coming in afterwards that will melt less sea ice thus a slow rebound in extent will in time creep back up.
Also the weather conditions can make a big difference to summer sea ice levels.
Storms can break up the ice. (eg 2012)
Winds can push the broken ice out of the Arctic down the Greenland Sea and also out of Baffin Bay.
But anyway you look at it…
… current levels are FAR in excess of what they have been through most of the last 10,000 years.
But what drives the AMO? I used to think the same as you stated but now have a different view. The AMO itself is driven by Arctic sea ice extent.
As the sea ice grows it means a larger pool of very cold air is produced every winter. This cold air occasionally pushes south and cools the rest of the NH. As a result, the average North Atlantic temperature is reduced.
What drives the Arctic sea ice? The temperature of the water in the Arctic ocean. As the ice increases it allows the water to warm due to the insulation effect. That eventually melts the sea ice. More open water allows the water to cool which then brings on an increase in ice. Back and forth it goes with the complete picture leaving the ~60 year cycle.
It really is not all that simple. There are many global factors involved.
“What drives the Arctic sea ice? The temperature of the water in the Arctic ocean. As the ice increases it allows the water to warm due to the insulation effect. That eventually melts the sea ice. More open water allows the water to cool which then brings on an increase in ice.”
You missed out part of the process: More open water allows the water to absorb more solar irradiation.
1) The record the NSIDC is using started in November of 1978, so the total record they are using is only a little over 45 years. So barely in the bottom 1/3 of a very short record.
2) Because I have been calling NSIDC frauds for a couple of months for using the 1981 to 2010 period for comparison, I thought I should actually contact them to ask why. I sent an email Sunday evening, 3-24, to the director of the NSIDC, Mark Serreze. It was answered Monday by another scientist since the director was out of the office.
Walter Meier provided a very nice and thorough explanation for the use of 1981 to 2010 and a link to an FAQ which pretty much provides the same explanation as his email.
https://nsidc.org/learn/ask-scientist/why-use-1981-2010-average-sea-ice
He also provided a link to a tool to set your own timeline which provides a linear slope:
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-analysis-tool/
If you use that tool for the last 20 years (some recent discussions were had here regarding that time frame), February 2005 to 2024, it provides a Trend Slope of -.07 +- 1.3% per decade. So basically within the margin of error.
He also explained that different organizations and scientists used different 30 year periods, and gave as an example NASA GISS, yep, that clown show, using 1951 to 1980.
To quote his email:
I responded to that email Monday and asked a couple other questions and Walter responded today. He was very helpful and I appreciate his time and told him that and thanked him.
So NOT frauds, just a very short period of satellite data being used and all previous recorded data, of which there is much, going back HUNDREDS of years, is not in play.
This reminds me of the use of only recent satellite WILDFIRE data for the US that completely disregards past non-satellite data.
I still disagree about NOT using the most recent 3 decade period. Of course I don’t think that ANY 30-year period is suitable duration for ANY “climate” comparison. It should be 100, or better yet 1000, or actually, considering the length of the periods of glaciation,100,000 years.
However, the 30 year baseline may well bite them in the @ss if and when the coverage begins to increase from this current level.
We just need to remember their reasoning and make sure they do not change the baseline in the future.
Drake
It’s like the drunk who was looking for his keys under the lamp post when his car was “way over there…”. He answered, “because this is where the light is.”
The best satellite weather data began in 1979, so that’s where the “light is” on global weather.
That 1978 followed three decades of modest cooling (causing the “Ice Age is Coming” hysteria) is convenient to the global warming argument. “It was colder then; it’s warmer now…..so CO2 driven global warming must be true.”
It’s amazing more people don’t see this sophistry for what it is.
“Global Warming” didn’t warm, enough for people to worry about so they changed the name to “Climate Change” and the WMO redefined “climate” to be only around 30 years, so like the weather, which it really is, it is always changing.
i still don’t get it. if global warming is a sun driven, co2 exacerbated phenomenon, why are arctic temps (per the danes) always average in the summer and above average in the winter, when there’s no sun at all.
weird.
This page?
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
Which hasn’t updated since 18th March, Not for the first time I’m the last 12 months.
Not at all weird when you understand what drives the temperature. The Arctic temperature is driven by the amount of sea ice in the winter. More sea ice = colder, less sea ice = warmer. In the summer, it’s driven by the availability of solar energy.
I think it is important to remember that the Antarctic sea ice extent still has a slightly positive trend over the whole of the satellite record.
When talking about the Antarctic it is all about how one of the ice shelves is about to break away. They never mention Antarctic sea ice extent.
I seem to recall that years ago- Saudi Arabia talked about grabbing a big chunk of ice from Antarctica and dragging it to their nation. They might need it since they have a ski resort. 🙂
I remember magazine articles from 30 or more years ago talking about bringing ice burgs from glaciers to California for the water.
Still a good idea. If you use a Russian Nuclear powered icebreaker as the tug boat.
Just need a suitable cove to park the ice while it melts. Maybe beside Diablo Canyon Nuclear power plant. You can use the waste heat from the plant to melt the ice.
COULD it even increase the efficiency of the plant? I think so, after reading the Diablo Canyon Wiki. The fresh water for cooling would definitely be better than the current salt water for maintenance. AND you would not need to throttle the plant for fear of kelp getting in the cooling water from the ocean, or from exceeding the maximum ALLOWED temperature differential between the outflow and ambient ocean temps. Hilarious when you read that part of the Wiki. Next Cali will be regulating the temperature differential of deep ocean vents, LOLOL.
I was going to reply that there are no deep ocean vents in any waters controlled by Cali, but then I remembered that Cali believes they have the authority to dictate how pigs are raised, no matter what part of the country they are being grown in.
There have been several studies of the concept
https://erdc-library.erdc.dren.mil/jspui/bitstream/11681/5796/1/CRREL-Research-Report-200.pdf
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-glaciology/article/icebergs-as-a-freshwater-source-an-appraisal/9A8294234261CD40EAA70502664ADBA7
Are you sure about that, I recall quite a lot of discussion of the record low sea ice in the austral summer 22-23, it didn’t quite reach that low level this year but was still second in the satellite record. So the three lowest sea ice minima have been the last three years.
Antarctic sea ice is driven by the amount of cold air flowing down the slope of the continent combined with the ocean temperature.
I suspect the recent reduction over the past decade has been due to more solar energy warming the ocean.
Hi Phil.
I just downloaded the data from NSIDC and plotted the graph. I had to transpose the data from being horizontal to vertical but other than that, I did nothing. No cherry picking. The data show a small increase of 3000 square kms per year.
The query I made was about this remark you made:
” They never mention Antarctic sea ice extent.”
Since i saw lots of discussion over the record low minimums over the last year or so.
Sorry, I understand now. Yes there’s plenty about it on skeptical sites like WUWT but I was meaning in the MSM.
I saw articles in the NY Times, the Guardian, the Economist, Reuters, the Washington Post etc.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/09/25/antarctica-record-low-ice-arctic-climate/
Hi Phil.
Yes. You are right. I should have said “They never mention the Antarctic sea ice extent while they were going up, but recently they have gone up a little bit, although they are not as high as they were for most of the last 40 years.”
That makes no sense, the Antarctic sea ice extent
minima for the last three years are the lowest in the record since 1979.
The Economist has just published an article “Antarctica, Earth’s largest refrigerator, is defrosting | The Economist“. It seems to contradict the ice extent positive trend in your chart. Which is correct?
Hi Herrnwingert
I don’t have a subscription to the Economist so I can’t look at your reference, but I stand by my claim. To be fair, it is not my claim. It is what the official NASA data says is happening.
A whole lot of snow and ice data is here.
https://masie_web.apps.nsidc.org/pub/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/seaice_analysis/
The monthly data is here. I had to transpose it from horizontal to vertical to produce the graph but it is still their data.
https://masie_web.apps.nsidc.org/pub/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/seaice_analysis/Sea_Ice_Index_Monthly_Data_by_Year_G02135_v3.0.xlsx
There has been a small downward trend in the last few years but not enough to overcome the upward trend since 1979.
When the Arctic ice extent was trending downwards the news was all about that. Now that the Arctic Sea Ice is trending up a little bit they ignore that and focus on the small up tick in the Antarctic ice extent.
They are taking advantage of the fact that most people are not looking at the data.
Once you see they are misrepresenting the data, you cannot unsee it.
Oops, that should have been “down tick in the Antarctic sea ice extent.”
Here is the NASA data up to 2017.
https://earth.gsfc.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/neptune/files/SH_IceArea_Monthly_1978-2017.txt
Oops. That is”area” not “Extent”. I am making too many errors. Too late at night for me. Don’t worry about what I say.. The data is at
https://masie_web.apps.nsidc.org/pub/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/seaice_analysis/
Hi John,
Here is a link (I hope it works) to a PDF of the Economist article:
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/9tcgqixkgubp6dw9a44i5/ECONOMIST-March-2024-Antarctica-Earth-s-largest-refrigerator-is-defrosting.pdf?rlkey=tyonup0l8r80hzpse8wcajids&dl=0
Charctic is actually a 3-day average.
Single day numbers are…..
According to NSIDC, Arctic topped at 15.094 Wadhams on March 11th.
OSI has it at 15.053 Wadhams on March 12th
MASIE has it at 15.18 Wadhams on March 12th
Recent values at OSI are interesting. We nearly had a new record a couple fo days ago. The value two days after the maximum to date for 2024 shows a data glitch value. Values beyond the 15th are subject to revision as the DM1v3 values are replaced by ISCDv3 ones.
2024.1831 2024 03 08 14956250 OSIICDRv3
2024.1858 2024 03 09 14994375 OSIICDRv3
2024.1885 2024 03 10 15003750 OSIICDRv3
2024.1913 2024 03 11 15065000 OSIICDRv3
2024.1940 2024 03 12 15008125 OSIICDRv3
2024.1967 2024 03 13 8548125 OSIICDRv3
2024.1995 2024 03 14 14949375 OSIICDRv3
2024.2022 2024 03 15 14971875 OSIDM1v3
2024.2049 2024 03 16 14965625 OSIDM1v3
2024.2077 2024 03 17 14970625 OSIDM1v3
2024.2104 2024 03 18 14903750 OSIDM1v3
2024.2131 2024 03 19 14864375 OSIDM1v3
2024.2158 2024 03 20 14830000 OSIDM1v3
2024.2186 2024 03 21 14848750 OSIDM1v3
2024.2213 2024 03 22 14854375 OSIDM1v3
2024.2240 2024 03 23 14806875 OSIDM1v3
2024.2268 2024 03 24 14870000 OSIDM1v3
2024.2295 2024 03 25 14870625 OSIDM1v3
2024.2322 2024 03 26 14986250 OSIDM1v3
2024.2350 2024 03 27 14998750 OSIDM1v3
2024.2377 2024 03 28 15031875 OSIDM1v3
2024.2404 2024 03 29 14950000 OSIDM1v3
“warm
La NinaEl Niño conditions didn’t kick in until June 2023″Actually, it was the 2015 El Nino that had a big effect on Arctic temperatures..
There was actually no Arctic warming this century until that El Nino.
There were heading down, but the 2023 El Nino has caused another smaller spike.
According to the DMI site, Summer temperatures have been at or below average for the last several years.
Yes, there have been some spikes in winter temperatures….. but water still freezes at -20ºC !!
When people worry about how much ice is at the poles- they don’t have enough problems in their lives.
What can we say about summer temperatures above the 80th parallel?
Golly so nice to see someone advertising the Danish eighty north. How is the Arctic ‘warming’ when it’s the same plus say 2 degs in Jul/Aug EVERY YEAR from 1958 to now? Otherwise minus. Explain.
Melting ice keeps the surface temperature pinned just above 0C. If there is more energy, the ice melts faster, rather than the air warming up.
Ice extent in the Bering Sea is increasing again after the fall.
The data on this page always reaches its maximum around the end of April start of May. Quite low this year.
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php
Taking bets as usual that autumnal equinox will be four Wadhams plus. £100? Any takers?
“ 2023 was the warmest year since global records began in 1850 “
There were NO global records in 1850 to compare, just occasional sporadic readings 1,000s of miles apart.
In the 1850s there were more temperature recording stations in England than in Africa & South America combined; & nothing that would read to 2 places of decimal.
True global temperature records didn’t begin until 1980 – with full satellite cover.
Satellites orbit in specific orbits. They collect radiation from the entire column of the atmosphere. Is it possible to determine the global temperature at an altitude of 2 meters? For example, the surface temperature of the open ocean in the tropics is always below 31 C. What is the temperature 2 meters above the surface?
Almost all of the stations that did exist were in Central Europe and the British Isles, and the east coast of the US and Canada.
There were so few stations outside those regions that they might as well been uncovered altogether.
It is exhilarating to see a real scientist use proper analysis and reporting of an average.
Using something like 14th lowest or 5th highest simply doesn’t inform one of what is happening. With an overage of 15.0, a value of 14.95 could be within one standard deviation or 10 standard deviations. There is no way to understand the spread of measurements that go into the average.
I know I harp on measurement uncertainty a lot, but this is a perfect example of why it is important.
Congratulations to Susan for having the knowledge and willingness to quantify the variation.
In this Wood for Tree figure the averaged differentials of temperature, AMO and Arctic sea ice area are shown (HadCRUT4, ESRL-AMO and NSIDC data).
The maximum of sea ice decrease lags ~10 years the maximum of temperature increase.
So it seems that Arctic sea ice responds with delay to temperature.
It is tempting to suggest that sea ice and temperature are related to each other.
To establish a quasi-cyclic behavior in this relation negative feedbacks are needed.
There are some candidates: less sea ice area means more heat loss, a sea surface of 0 degrees radiates ~60% more IR than an ice surface at -30 degrees. To some extent this effect is counteracted by lower albedo of open water but irradiation is less at higher latitudes.
The last decades the area of sea ice is diminishing but that is especially in summer. The annual amplitude of forming sea ice area (and volume) is increasing. This implies that the forming of cold bottom water also increases.
OMG, below average- we must now panic! 🙂
According to NOAA:
According to ChatGPT:
Station Counts 1861-1890.. How can the possibly have a “global” temperature from that. !
It is all FAKE.
You have to trust on faith the Mann hockey stick.
With that faith you will KNOW all about 1850.
Funny they do not go back to the early 1700. Research found that CO2 level in the early 1700s are a high as today.
Do you have a link or paper for that, please?
“It’s almost like Arctic sea ice extent in winter has almost no relationship with global temperatures!”
Nor the following year’s minimum extent, the winter maximum in 2012 is 20th on that list.
WEATHER patterns strongly effect the summer minimum.
Sure especially given the thinner more mobile sea ice we have now.
Calling Al Gore: we have an inconvenient truth to share with you.
Story Tip
https://www.foxweather.com/earth-space/what-time-is-it-clock-adjustment
(The story tries to blame “leap seconds” on … guess what?)
I wonder how they adjusted their clocks during the Holocene Optimum, when there was FAR LESS Arctic sea ice, and globally, sea levels were a couple of metres higher. 😉
Clocks are Man made.
First we had Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming. (Now known as “Climate Change”.)
Now we have Catastrophic Anthropogenic Clock Changes.
Couldn’t possibly due to the Japan Earthquake, or the Tonga eruption, or the massive Chinese hydro project.
Couldn’t possibly be due to the solar magnetic fields shifting and the effects on the Earth’s core.
Once you silence all the obvious, you are left with….
“Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth.” – Sherlock Holmes
But in CliSy,
“‘Once the consensus had declared the truth, we eliminate the probable and, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be what we declared to be the truth.” – Shylock
When I first started paying attention to the AGW BS, one of the first posts I read, and I cannot remember where, mentioned 2 things.
1) If all the glaciers are melting, and since almost all the glaciers are in the northern regions, then the Earth’s rotation would be SLOWING. No need to measure all the different glaciers, rotation alone will tell you the truth.
2) If CO2 is such a big deal, rerun with the original methods the experiment that scientists used to determine absolute 0 by viewing deep space and the temperature derived would be higher NOW then determined THEN.
#1 appears to be happening?
Of course a warming climate may, OR MAY NOT, have anything to do with CO2.
So to prove the cause IS CO2, I challenge climate scientists to perform experiment #2.
Of course, they, in general, not being REAL scientists, could probably never pull it off.
So how do they explain the need to shorten time by a second? More icing up at the poles?
Latency rules.
W/m^2. The is EM field strength (and other applications). The equivalent energy is J/m^2
1 J = 1 W for 1 second.
Never see any time constraints on any of the energy imbalance graphics.
The solar irradiance has been the highest over the last 100 years of any 100-year period in the past 400 years. That and the Urban Heat Island effect is probably what is warming the temperature readings.
“The year 2023 was the warmest year since global records began in 1850 at 1.18°C (2.12°F) above the 20th-century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F).”
Can someone telll me WHERE the global air and ocean temperature sensors where placed in 1850?
The United States established its national weather service in 1870, Canada in 1871. Great areas of the North American west were then very thinly settled, if at all.
The UK says they began their national service in 1910:
https://inews.co.uk/news/environment/weather-records-when-begin-data-climate-change-1910-temperature-325504
ChatGPT tells me France had no systematic weather data collection until 1958. Germany established its national weather service in 1952. Brazil began collecting data in 1908, but it did not cover vast areas of the Amazon.
Russia? China?
Bottom line: it’s more Horse Hockey from our government.
Here is the NOAA map of stations from 1861-1890.
There is no possible way they can calculate a “global” value from them.
Even now, the surface stations, by a very large proportion, are totally unfit for calculation global anything !!