The Week That Was: 2024-02-10 (February 10, 2024)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “
Number of the Week: $4 Trillion
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: Using graphs, Roy Spencer demonstrates that his graphic techniques of presenting datasets reveal differences in data rather than hiding them. In another post, Spencer explores why different time periods fit different models better than other time periods. As discussed in two reports, the high cost of wind and solar power has become evident in Europe. Mann v. Steyn is discussed including the view of climatologist Judith Curry.
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Hide or Reveal? Richard Feynman set a high goal for scientific research when he wrote: “The first principle is that you must not fool yourself – and you are the easiest person to fool.” Many of those who are motivated by a passionate interest in a topic easily fool themselves by ignoring data that questions their desired result or adjusting the data to give their views the most favorable impact. The graphs presented by Al Gore in the movie “The inconvenient truth” are an example. He shows graphs indicating that temperatures and carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations move together based on Antarctic ice cores. He claims this “proves” that changes in carbon dioxide concentrations cause temperature changes.
Actually, it does not. The graphs just show that there may be a correlation. Certainly, based on experiments, carbon dioxide is absorbed more readily in cold water than warm water, and as water warms CO2 is released. This can be seen in ocean upwelling, which are rich primary producers of aquatic sea life. They bring to the surface cold water that is rich in carbon dioxide, nitrogen and phosphorus promoting phytoplankton which begins the energy base for a complex food chain including providing food for fish, marine mammals, seabirds, and other creatures.
Numerous studies have pointed out that Mr. Gore had the timelines wrong to claim causation. In general, temperature changes occurred before CO2 changes, by an average of about 800 years. Al Gore has no explanation for the actual timeline which he hid, probably unintentionally. Al Gore fooled himself on the timeline, thus the causation claim.
Gavin Schmidt, the director of NASA-GISS has been posting criticisms of the work of Roy Spencer and John Christy claiming the manner in which they present data is misleading. Spencer writes that:
Since the blogosphere continues to amplify Gavin Schmidt’s claim that the way John Christy and I plot temperature time series data is some form of ‘trickery’, I have come up with a way to demonstrate its superiority. Following a suggestion by Heritage Foundation chief statistician Kevin Dayaratna, I will do this using only climate model data, and not comparing the models to observations. That way, no one can claim I am displaying the data in such a way to make the models ‘look bad’.
The goal here is to plot multiple temperature time series on a single graph in such a way their different rates of long-term warming (usually measured by linear warming trends) are best reflected by their placement on the graph, without hiding those differences.
A. Raw Temperatures
Let’s start with 32 CMIP6 climate model projections of global annual average surface air temperature for the period 1979 through 2100 (Plot A) and for which we have equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) estimates (I’ve omitted 2 of the 3 Canadian model simulations, which produce the most warming and are virtually the same).
Here, I am using the raw temperatures out of the models (not anomalies). As can be seen in Plot A, there are rather large biases between models which tend to obscure which models warm the most and which warm the least.” [graph not shown here]
“B. Temperature Anomalies Relative to the Full Period (1979-2100)
Next, if we plot the departures of each model’s temperature from the full-period (1979-2100) average, we see in Plot B that the discrepancies between models warming rates are divided between the first and second half of the record, with the warmest models by 2100 having the coolest temperature anomalies in 1979, and the coolest models in 2100 having the warmest temperatures in 1979. Clearly, this isn’t much of an improvement, especially if one wants to compare the models early in the record… right?” [graph no shown here]
Spencer goes through two other methods of presentation before showing the Spencer & Christy method. Spencer writes that:
E. Temperature Departures from Linear Trends (relative to the trend Y-intercepts in 1979)
Finally, I show the method John Christy and I have been using for quite a few years now, which is to align the time series such that their linear trends all intersect in the first year, here 1979 (Plot E). I’ve previously discussed why this ‘seems’ the most logical method, but clearly not everyone is convinced.
Admittedly, Plots C, D, and E all look quite similar… so how to know which (if any) is best?
[Graph not shown here]
How the Models’ Temperature Metrics Compare to their Equilibrium Climate Sensitivities
What we want is a method of graphing where the model differences in long-term warming rates show up as early as possible in the record. For example, imagine you are looking at a specific year, say 1990… we want a way to display the model temperature differences in that year that have some relationship to the models’ long-term rates of warming.
Of course, each model already has a metric of how much warming it produces, through their diagnosed equilibrium (or effective) climate sensitivities, ECS. So, all we have to do is, in each separate year, correlate the model temperature metrics in Plots A, B, C, D, and E with the models’ ECS values (see plot, below).
When we do this ‘scoring’ we find that our method of plotting the data clearly has the highest correlations between temperature and ECS early in the record. [Graph not shown here]
I hope this is sufficient evidence of the superiority of our way of plotting different time series when the intent is to reveal differences in long-term trends, rather than hide those differences. [Boldface was italics in original]
As TWTW has frequently stated, the climate model data is near surface-air data. There are no standards regarding where the temperatures are taken, time of day, instrumentation, or frequency. Even in the US which once was the gold standard, as Anthony Watts and his team have shown, the standards for the US are overwhelmingly ignored. Further, as Tony Heller has shown, the data have been so heavily manipulated by politicized government agencies that the original data has been lost. There is no question that there is a greenhouse effect which keeps the land masses on earth warm enough to support complex life and carbon dioxide (a gas critical for green life which creates food for all complex life) is a secondary greenhouse gas, after water vapor (another gas critical for life on Earth). See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Measurement Issues – Surface & Lowering Standards for some of Heller’s recent work.
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Which Time Period? Spencer has another post which asks: What Period of Warming Best Correlates with Climate Sensitivity? He writes:
“When computing temperature trends in the context of ‘global warming’ we must choose a region (U.S.? global? etc.) and a time period (the last 10 years? 50 years? 100 years?) and a season (summer? winter? annual?). Obviously, we will obtain different temperature trends depending upon our choices. But what significance do these choices have in the context of global warming?
Obviously, if we pick the most recent 10 years, such a short period can have a trend heavily influenced by an El Nino at the beginning and a La Nina at the end (thus depressing the trend) — or vice versa.
Alternatively, if we go too far back in time (say, before the mid-20th Century), increasing CO2 in the atmosphere cannot have much of an impact on the temperatures before that time. Inclusion of data too far back will just mute the signal we are looking for.
One way to investigate this problem is to look at climate model output across many models to see how their warming trends compare to those models’ diagnosed equilibrium climate sensitivities (ECS). I realize climate models have their own problems, but at least they generate internal variability somewhat like the real world, for instance with El Ninos and La Ninas scattered throughout their time simulations.
I’ve investigated this for 34 CMIP6 models having data available at the KNMI Climate Explorer website which also has published ECS values. The following plot shows the correlation between the 34 models’ ECS and their temperature trends through 2023, but with different starting years.
[Graph not shown here:]
The peak correlation occurs around 1945, which is when CO2 emissions began to increase substantially, after World War II. But there is a reason why the correlations start to fall off after that date.” [Boldface added]
Spencer explains:
“The CMIP6 Climate Models Have Widely Differing Aerosol Forcings
The following plot (annotated by me, source publication here) shows that after WWII the various CMIP6 models have increasingly different amounts of aerosol forcings causing various amounts of cooling.
[Graph not shown here]
If those models had not differed so much in their aerosol forcing, one could presumable have picked a later starting date than 1945 for meaningful temperature trend computation. Note the differences remain large even by 2015, which is reaching the point of not being useful anyway for trend computations through 2023.
So, what period would provide the ‘best’ length of time to evaluate global warming claims? At this point, I honestly do not know.” [Boldface added in last sentence.]
The entire exercise demonstrates the absurdity of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its followers to seek an “equilibrium climate.” As Richard Lindzen has shown, Earth has dozens of climates that are constantly changing that cannot be measured by temperature. In addition, we did not have good measurements of ocean temperatures until the Argo float program which began in 1999.
What Spencer also demonstrates is the modelers game playing of adding and subtracting from aerosols (fudge factors) that may be real or imagined. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Energy Transition: Western governments are trying to force an energy transition onto their populations that the people clearly do not want for a number of reasons primarily because alternatives to traditional electrical generation do not provide affordable, reliable electricity. In short, politicians trying to enforce such measures are incredibly naive (foolish).
Last week, TWTW discussed the views of noted security specialist, Professor emeritus Gwythian Prins of the London School of Economics (and Political Science) on the “Net Zero” plan of replacing coal, oil, and natural gas with wind and solar creating a national security problem for the UK. His report, “Archimedes’ Fulcrum” was published by Net Zero Watch.
This week, Net Zero Watch published “Retreat from Net Zero is under way” by Ross Clark, a lead writer and columnist at the Spectator as well as a frequent contributor to several national newspapers including the Daily Telegraph, Daily Mail and the Express. His concepts are easy to understand, and he addresses many of the failures of “new energy.” His views may be too optimistic, for the beast may be difficult to kill.
Paul Homewood directed us to “The Struggle to Achieve Net Zero Emissions – While Balancing Security, Affordability and Sustainability” by Morten Springborg of C WorldWide Asset Management, a fund manager based in Copenhagen and registered in the US and UK. It was formerly known as Carnegie Asset Management. The report starts with a quote from a dramatically successful woman from a poor white family in Appalachia (US) which sums the problems of energy transition:
“’It costs a lot of money to look this cheap.’ – Dolly Parton”
The report begins with:
“Key Insights
Despite rapidly rising investments, the decarbonization of our energy systems continues to progress too slowly. The transition is failing because the chosen strategy is not aligned with the Energy Trilemma constraints of security, affordability, and sustainability.
• Focusing solely on solar and wind will not get us to the net zero target. Measured in primary energy terms, renewables have very low power density, and therefore, solar and wind should only be used for direct electrification where the energy losses are lowest.
• Taking intermittent electricity production above a certain threshold in the grid leads to rising electricity prices and instability and potential blackouts of the grid.
• Underinvestment in primary energy will lead to energy scarcity, and the poorest part of the global population will pay the highest price in capped human development.
• Inequality in access to energy is probably the most significant human development issue.
In this paper, we will begin describing our predicament today, and in a follow-up paper, we will focus on the solutions: Diversified energy systems, technology, and improved energy efficiency. Advanced nuclear fission, and fusion from the 2030s, as well as nature-based carbon sinks, natural gas, and energy efficiency as described in our White Paper from 2021. We should not blindly pursue short-term CO2 reduction targets, which can only be met at excessively high costs to our societies; the price is long-term decarbonization, and there will be a hockey stick development when the right technologies are available.
From Main Street media to academia and Wall Street brokerage research, an unrelenting chant has been heard for years: wind and solar are the cheapest forms of electricity. In more technical terms, solar and wind are claimed to have the lowest ‘levelized cost of energy’ (LCOE), and therefore transitioning to a renewable-based energy system is not only good for the environment but also good for the economy as it lowers the cost of energy. Politicians, NGOs, and, importantly, more and more dominant ‘green companies’ have been claiming this so loudly that arguing the opposite has become highly controversial. Canceled off-shore wind auctions, declining share prices of renewable energy companies, and the extremely volatile – and over time – higher electricity prices and degraded grid reliability almost everywhere where wind and solar have achieved meaningful market penetration have gone almost unnoticed by this green agenda.
The energy transition must be analyzed in an Energy Trilemma framework.
1. the high costs of the chosen pathway,
2. the insufficient security of supply,
3. and the questionable sustainability pathway
The report defines intermittent electricity as: “Any source of energy, for example, solar or wind, which is not continuously available for conversion into electricity.”
Very simply, as long as alternative sources remain unreliable and expensive, civilization will need traditional sources such as nuclear, hydroelectric, and fossil fuels, which the greens irrationally oppose and invent arguments against.
Ross Clark begins his report with:
“The UN meetings on climate change have become renowned for their platitudes, with national leaders falling over each other to say what disparate straits the world is in, how we must decarbonize ever faster – before returning to their home countries and putting economic development well ahead of their promises to cut emissions. But the president of COP28 in Dubai in December 2023, Sultan Al Jaber, was unusually frank. Al Jaber, who also serves as the chair of Abu Dhabi state oil corporation, ADNOC, which recently announced a $150 billion investment to increase oil production by nearly 50 percent to 5 million barrels a day by 2027, appealed to former Irish President Mary Robinson: ‘show me a road map for the phase out of fossil fuel that allows for social, sustainable development…unless you want to take the world back into caves’.
Al Jaber was eviscerated for his comments, yet they were in tune with a silent majority. An analysis by the website Zero Tracker reveals that even countries with net zero targets are heavily resisting pressure to phase out exploration for and development of fossil fuel resources. There are 93 oil-producing countries that have net zero targets, but only six of them have plans to phase out oil. Only five out of 94 gas-producing countries with a net zero target have plans to phase out gas. As for coal-producing countries, only 65 of those with net zero targets have plans to stop production.
As always with COP meetings, the event ended with a communiqué promising that the world would try to ‘transition away’ from fossil fuels – which is a long way from agreeing to phase them out by a certain date, as many activists demanded. After two weeks and several hundred thousands of tonnes [metric tons] of carbon dioxide spewed out by private jets and the like, the 98,000 delegates who had signed up for COP28 had come up with nothing more than an empty promise.
In fact, the list of countries with plans to phase out fossil fuels is showing few signs of growing. The new government in New Zealand has just reneged on the previous administrations’ pledge to do so. In Germany, Federal Economics Minister Robert Habeck recently announced that he may delay the country’s planned phase-out of coal by 2030 because of the energy crisis provoked by the invasion of Ukraine.”
Clark then goes into details such as fossil fuel use has never been greater, the costs on wind and solar are far greater than promoted, hydrogen power is losing its “puff,” small nuclear reactors are not appearing as expected, and EVs are running out of juice. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Questioning European Green.
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Mann v. Steyn: The jury trial in a Washington DC court is over, and the jury found in favor of Mr. Mann. A number of commentators have expressed their views. TWTW finds the entire show akin to the Scopes Monkey Trial in 1925 which was claimed by the winning side to prove that human evolution was a false concept. It did not.
As with the Scope’s trial, in Mann v. Stein physical evidence was never presented. The only expert testimony allowed was by Professor of Statistics and Data Science Abraham Wyner of Warton, University of Pennsylvania. No doubt he is an accomplished statistician, but does he understand the physical evidence required and the quality of that evidence?
The expert testimony prepared by climatologist Judith Curry and statistician Stephen McKitrick, both of whom understand the physical evidence required for understanding the problem was not admitted. As with the Scopes Trial, the clear loser in the trial was the scientific method and scientific integrity. The victor was institutionalized science, which may or may not contradict nature, the ultimate judge in natural sciences.
Judith Curry posted her proposed expert testimony on Climate Etc. She begins with:
“I submit this report under D.C. Superior Court Civil Rule 26(a)(2)(B) & (C) as both fact and expert witness to address the subject matter on which I expect to present evidence and to summarize the facts and opinions on which I expect to testify. This report includes my observations and opinions as a lay and expert witness concerning three principal topics: (I) the nature of the scientific and public controversy concerning the Hockey Stick graph; (II) whether the Hockey Stick graph can be regarded as ‘fraudulent’; and (III) Michael Mann’s role in the downward spiral of climate science discourse. I present sections (I) and (III) mostly in my capacity as a fact/lay opinion witness and section (II) in my capacity as an expert witness.
SUMMARY
This report addresses the issue of whether it is reasonable to refer to the Hockey Stick graph as ‘fraudulent’ in the course of the public debate on climate change.
- What is the nature of the scientific and public controversy concerning the Hockey Stick?”
Curry gives a thorough review of the “downward spiral of climate science discourse” with references and extensive quotes from Mr. Mann and his colleagues. She concludes with:
“Michael Mann claims to be the victim of a Serengeti strategy by political opponents of climate change policies. Mann has arguably been singled out for attacks because he has violated the norms of science: (a) withheld data from scientists who are critical of his work; (b) stifled criticism of his work within the IPCC and by distorting the peer review process; and (c) employed what he calls the “Serengeti strategy” to attack scientists who disagree with him.
Of specific relevance to this lawsuit, Mann has been instrumental in the downward spiral of discourse surrounding climate change, the very thing that he decries in this lawsuit. His loose use of the word ‘fraudulent’ with regards to research that is critical of his own plus characterizing people that he disagrees with as ‘professional liar for hire’, ‘denier,’ ‘anti-science,’ among other things, contributes to an ‘anything goes’ environment for discourse surrounding this controversial and contentious topic.”
Steyn defended himself and this saying applies: “a man who is his own lawyer has a fool for a client.” See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy and links to other views under Oh Mann!
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Number of the Week: $4 Trillion. In his report “The Struggle to Achieve Net Zero Emissions – While Balancing Security, Affordability and Sustainability” Morten Springborg references Statista that over the past 20 years new investment in renewable energy worldwide has been over $4 Trillion. Yet, no one has a demonstration project showing how much it would cost to make renewable energy reliable. As Dolly Parton reportedly said:
“It costs a lot of money to look this cheap.”
See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and https://www.statista.com/statistics/186807/worldwide-investment-in-sustainable-energy-since-2004/
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Challenging the Orthodoxy – Radiation Transfer
The Role of Greenhouse Gases in Energy Transfer in the Earth’s Atmosphere
By W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, Mar 3, 2023
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Lack of Scientific Integrity Should Be Only Climate Alarm
By Larry Bell, Newsmax, Feb 5, 2024
“In another e-mail, [Climatologist Peter] Thorne stated, ‘I also think the science is being manipulated to put a political spin on it which for all our sakes might not be too clever in the long run.’”
JC’s expert report
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Feb 8, 2024
Proof that the Spencer & Christy Method of Plotting Temperature Time Series is Best
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Feb 9, 2024
What Period of Warming Best Correlates with Climate Sensitivity?
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Feb 6, 2024
The Struggle to Achieve Net Zero Emissions
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 6, 2024
Link to report: The Struggle to Achieve Net Zero Emissions – While Balancing Security, Affordability and Sustainability
By Morten Springborg, Global Thematic Specialist, C WorldWide Asset Management, 2024
1.5 deg Climate Threshold Breached – Temporarily.
By David Whitehouse, Net Zero Watch, Feb 8, 2024
Climate Agenda Makes Vital CO2 a Dangerous Pollutant
By Larry Bell, Newsmax, Feb 7, 2024
Richard Courtney writes: “Bell’s article begins by providing this accurate information,
‘To get some sense of powerful political agenda influences on global climate and environmental policies, it’s instructive to revisit the acid rain hysteria of the late 1960s which led quite directly to demonization of carbon dioxide (CO2) as a “climate pollutant.’ Sadly, I admit that I have personal responsibility for initiating that transition of the ‘acid rain hysteria’ into becoming the more serious ‘global warming scare’.”
#ECS in the real world: Lewis 2022
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 7, 2024
“Once again the IPCC jumped on a study that told them what they wanted to hear, without checking the math. And once again they got caught.”
Defending the Orthodoxy
Over the past year, world hit key global warming benchmark
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Feb 8, 2024
“Scientists with the European Union on Thursday announced their finding that temperatures over the past 12 months were 1.52 degrees Celsius (2.74 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than the average preindustrial temperatures between the years 1850 and 1900.”
[SEPP Comment: There is no way of calculating “average global temperature” and data for 1850 to 1900 are lacking.]
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Psychologists were sure “climate deniers” were selfish, but a study of 4,000 showed the experts were wrong
By Jo Nova, Feb 6, 2024
Study: Psychological Interventions Do Not Work on Climate Skeptics
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Feb 9, 2024
Link to paper: Addressing climate change with behavioral science: A global intervention tournament in 63 countries
By Madalina Vlasceanu (Dept of Psychology, NYU) and over 250 other authors, AAAS Science Advances, Feb 7, 2024
“Doom and gloom’ don’t change stubborn climate change denial”
Questioning the Orthodoxy
2023 Scientific Papers Cast Doubt On ‘Consensus’ In Climate Science
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Feb 5, 2024
Net Zero Not Only Inhuman, It’s Also Ecocidal
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Feb 3, 2024
“The material reviewed so far in this paper confirms that there are a large number of factors that affect the earth’s climate. Many of these are poorly understood by man, and there are some factors that probably haven’t even been discovered yet.”
Tidbits
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 7, 2024
“An alert viewer suggests a variation on the old kids’ game ‘Simon Says’ called ‘Science says’ where it’s always ‘Science says… hand over your wallet’.”
Cogent Analysis
Those advocating a case for recession in the US have an energy blind spot.
By Doomberg, Blog, Feb 7, 2024
Energy and Environmental Review: February 5, 2024
By John Droz, Jr., Master Resource, Feb 5, 2024
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
Green machine
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 7, 2024
Link to paper: The global greening continues despite increased drought stress since 2000
By Xin Chen, et al., Global Ecology and Conservation, January 2024
Wyoming and Climate Change: CO2 Should Be Celebrated, Not Captured
By Frits Byron Soepyan, Gregory Wrightstone, and William Happer, CO2 Coalition, 2024
The greening of sub-Saharan Africa
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 7, 2024
From the CO2Science Archive:
Problems in the Orthodoxy
China Was Responsible for 96% of Coal Plants Constructed in 2023
By Charles Kennedy, Oil Price.com, Feb 6, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
“China’s attitude to coal has been hard to swallow for Europe and other transition advocates but Beijing has made a point of explaining that on its list of priorities, energy security comes before energy transition.”
Collision course
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 7, 2024
Joe Oliver: If climate blowhards could power windmills, we’d all be OK
Alberta having to worry about electrical brownouts should be a wake-up call to the rest of the country
By Joe Oliver, Financial Post [Can], Jan 23, 2024
Joe Oliver was minister of natural resources and then minister of finance in the Harper government.
From article:” It can happen almost anywhere but should be unlikely in Alberta — an emergency alert asking residents to reduce electricity usage to avert rolling blackouts. After all, Alberta has the world’s fourth-largest proven oil reserves and enough proven natural gas to meet Canada’s domestic needs for hundreds of years. So, the crisis was self-inflicted, a result of excessive reliance on intermittent renewable energy. It’s a wake-up call for Alberta but it should be for the rest of Canada, too.”
Science, Policy, and Evidence
Do-Nothing Attitude in the Face of China’s Abhorrent Policy on Minerals Is Unacceptable
By Jaak Daemen, Real Clear Energy, Feb 04, 2024
Models v. Observations
New tool predicts flood risk from hurricanes in a warming climate
By Jennifer Chu, MIT News, Boston MA (SPX) Feb 05, 2024
Link to paper: Climate change contributions to increasing compound flooding risk in New York City
By Ali Sarhadi, et al., (including Kerry Emanuel), Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Jan 24, 2024
From the abstract: “Here, for the first time, physics-based hydrodynamic flood models driven by rainfall and storm surge simultaneously are used to estimate the magnitude and frequency of compound flooding events. We apply this to the particular case of New York City. We find that sea level rise (SLR) alone will increase the TC and ETC compound flooding hazard more significantly than changes in storm climatology as the climate warms. We also project that the return period of destructive Sandy-like compound flooding will increase by up to five times by the end of the century. Our results have strong implications for climate change adaptation in coastal communities.”
[SEPP Comment: How well do the models track tidal gages in the area or even change in east coast storms?]
Model Issues
The Future of Weather Forecasts: Nearing the Natural Limit of Predictability
By Robert Schreiber, Mainz, Germany (SPX) Feb 06, 2024
Link to paper: The Transition from Practical to Intrinsic Predictability of Midlatitude Weather
By Selz, Riemer, and Craig, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Aug 1, 2022
Sorry, the Little Ice Age Does Exist
By Andy May, WUWT, Feb 9, 2024
“By comparing minimum and maximum proxy temperatures over the Little Ice Age (~1300 to ~1850) and comparing them to minimum and maximum modern daily instrumental measurements since 1900, Neukom, et al. would have us believe that the modern warm period is unique. We have thousands of weather stations, ocean buoys, and ARGO floats around the world today. It is well known that daily temperature extremes often exceed 30°C, which is more than 70 times the differences being estimated by Neukom, et al. as shown in figure 5, which is from their paper. These daily extremes are captured in instrumental data, but only seen occasionally, by pure chance, inaccurately, and in a very naturally smoothed way in the proxies. The proxies under sample both the high and low temperatures. Further, accuracy decreases backward in time.”
[SEPP Comment: The Argo float program began in 1999 and the data for calculation of atmospheric temperature trends started in 1979. Without establishing control periods or calibration periods, we have no basis for comparing current temperature trends with historic temperature trends from various proxies.]
Adjusting Salta, Argentina
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Feb 8, 2024
Heating Laboulaye, Argentina
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Feb 8, 2024
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
UAH January 2024: Ocean Warm, Land Cooling
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Feb 6, 2024
Changing Weather
Climate Change Is Not Behind Lake Mead’s Decline, Overuse and Poor Management Are
By H. Sterling Burnett, Climate Realism, Feb 9, 2024
[SEPP Comment: By the 1970s it was clear for those who studied the participation history of the area that the 1922 Colorado River Compact, dividing up the water between the upper basin and the lower basin (totaling seven states), was based on an unusually wet period.]
January’s Unremarkable Weather
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 8, 2024
“The climate crisis seems to have bypassed us!”
A Dominating El Nino
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Feb 7, 2024
Changing Climate
What turned Earth into a giant snowball 700m years ago? Scientists now have an answer
All-time low volcanic carbon emissions triggered a 57-million-year-long global ice age
Press Release, University of Sydney, Feb 7, 2024
Link to paper: Duration of Sturtian “Snowball Earth” glaciation linked to exceptionally low mid-ocean ridge outgassing
By Adriana Dutkiewicz; Geology, Feb 7, 2024
From article: “They soon realised that the start of the Sturtian ice age precisely correlates with an all-time low in volcanic CO2 emissions.
In addition, the CO2 outflux remained relatively low for the entire duration of the ice age.”
[SEPP Comment: The model we select has spoken: Therefore, CO2 must be the cause?]
Changing Seas
The Effect Of CO2 Increases On Ocean Temperatures Is Too Small To Measurably Detect
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Feb 8, 2024
Link to latest paper: Satellite-based time-series of sea-surface temperature since 1981 for climate applications
By Christopher J. Merchant, et al., Nature, Scientific Data, Oct 2019
Rapidly Rising Sea Level
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Feb 7, 2024
Video: https://realclimatescience.com/2024/02/rapidly-rising-sea-level-2/#gsc.tab=0
Text: https://realclimatescience.com/2024/02/rapidly-rising-sea-level/#gsc.tab=0
Changing Earth
A volcanic eruption sent enough water vapor into the stratosphere to cause a rapid change in chemistry
By Staff, NOAA, Dec 20, 2023 [H/t WUWT}
Link to paper: Rapid ozone depletion after humidification of the stratosphere by the Hunga Tonga Eruption
By Stephanie Evan, et al., AAAS Science, Oct 20, 2023
Link to another paper: Unexpectedly rapid aerosol formation in the Hunga Tonga plume
By Elizabeth Ashe, et al., PNAS, Oct 30, 2023
[SEPP Comment: This ozone is the same as the ozone that CFC were claimed to deplete. No discussion on how quickly solar radiation replaced the lost ozone.]
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Leftists Disconnected From How Things Work Are Destroying Everything
By Vince Coyner, American Thinker, Feb 6, 2024
“Back then [before Cyrus McCormick invented the mechanical reaper], farming’s efficiency hadn’t changed much since the time of the pyramids. A man, using a scythe, could harvest approximately one acre of grain a day. [and approximately 80% of American population was involved in agriculture]. With today’s machines, a farmer can harvest up to 100 acres in a day. Small wonder that only 3% of the US population today farms.”
NSF leads a $35M federal investment in future agricultural technologies and solutions
Seven teams from the NSF Convergence Accelerator program advance to Phase 2 to tackle food and nutrition insecurity challenges
Press Release, NSF, Feb 6, 2024
“The U.S. National Science Foundation is investing in new technologies that address the complex challenges in tackling food and nutrition insecurity from population growth, rising diet-related diseases and disparities and climate resilience.”
[SEPP Comment: Does NSF recognize that food production has gone up with increasing atmospheric CO2? Is NSF peddling the imaginary “climate crisis”?]
Un-Science or Non-Science?
Climate Deniers Pocketing $20 Undermines the Motivated Reasoning Hypothesis?
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Feb 5, 2024
Lowering Standards
Climate Data Corruption Business (Part 2)
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Feb 8, 2024
Video: https://realclimatescience.com/2024/02/climate-data-corruption-business-part-2/#gsc.tab=0
“Time of observation bias
Adjusting the data to correspond with increasing CO2
More than 2 degrees of adjustments”
The Govt’s Version Of EV Facts
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 7, 2024
“If a business had provided such misleading advertising, the Advertising Standards Agency would have come down on them like a ton of bricks!”
Hurricane Category 6?
By Rud Istvan, WUWT, Feb 7, 2024
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
Climate Cultists at The Guardian: This Time, It’s Evil Propane
By Tilak Doshi, Real Clear Energy, Feb 8, 2024
Is Northwest Snow History? Scientific Errors in A Major Seattle Times Climate Story
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Feb 5, 2024
“I am getting tired of writing blogs on this issue.”
“This Seattle Times article was financed by a collection of activist foundations and the University of Washington. It shows the dangers of advocacy journalism.”
The BBC’s latest climate coverage makes XR look moderate
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 9, 2024
[SEPP Comment: XR is the abbreviation for the Extinction Rebellion.]
Chemmy Alcott Should Learn What Glaciers Are Really Like!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 6, 2024
“Did you know that in the 17thC glaciers relentlessly pushed downslope ruining thousands of acres of farmland and leaving many villages uninhabitable such as La Bois where a government official noted ‘where there are still six houses. all uninhabited save two, in which live some wretched women and children…Above and adjoining the village there is a great and horrible glacier of great and incalculable volume which can promise nothing but the destruction of the houses and lands which still remain’”?
Irish death gas
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 7, 2024
Snow Is A Thing Of The Past–Except In Britain!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 7, 2024
No, Los Angeles Times, Climate Change Is Not ‘Supercharging’ the Latest Winter Storm
By Anthony Watts, Climate Realism, Feb 6, 2024
[SEPP Comment: LA Times ignoring California’s climate history?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
The next big climate scare: Counting climate change deaths
By Steve Goreham, Washington Examiner, (H/t Icecap.us)
“With deaths from natural disasters and famine declining, and because fewer people die in warmer temperatures, the case for counting deaths from global warming is poor at best. But don’t underestimate the ability of climate alarmists to create fear by exaggerating the data.”
[SEPP Comment: Will the deaths associated with global warming for a species that evolved in tropical Africa exceed the imaginary deaths from PM 2.5? Will we have more human deaths associated with these “causes” than humans?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Claim: Allowing Users to Assume ChatGPT is Neutral Could Combat Climate Denial
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Feb 6, 2024
Fact check: Tim Spector’s frightening climate claims
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 8, 2024
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
The Weaponization of “Scientific Consensus”
Only science offers a path to truth, not surveys of expert opinion
By Roger Pielke Jr. The Honest Broker, Feb 5, 2024
[Medical] “’Misinformation’ means false information that is contradicted by contemporary scientific consensus contrary to the standard of care.”
The rich eat you
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 7, 2024
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
The climate nervous breakdown continues
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 7, 2024
“Dezeen moans that ‘Our biggest climate challenge is no longer denial, but despair’. And a piece in Nature Mental Health (yes, there really is such a publication) says ‘The mental health effects of weather-related disasters are well characterized, yet less is known about the effect of chronic, slow-onset climate change.’ Untrue.”
Activists just can’t stop using emotional blackmail to sell the climate change narrative
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Feb 8, 2024
Climate Change Killing Football, Says Silly Katie Rood
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 3, 2024
Communicating Better to the Public – Protest
Thanks, Associated Press, For Reporting on E.U. Farmers’ Victory over Harmful Climate Regulations
By Linnea Lueken, Climate Realism, Feb 7, 2024
Farmers win: Major EU backdown on farming emissions and regulations
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Feb 7, 2024
Rowan Dean On European Farmer Protests
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 4, 2024
“Well worth watching this video by Rowan Dean, which give the low down on the European protests largely being ignored by our media.”
12-minute video
“EU plan to eliminate modern farming in the EU.
Expanding the Orthodoxy
10 states say Biden should issue ‘emergency’ worker protections from extreme heat
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Feb 9, 2024
[SEPP Comment: No one from the Southeast where it is both hot and humid in the summer, but it includes cold weather states such as Colorado and the Northeast.]
Retreat from Net Zero is under way
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, Feb 8, 2024
Link to report: Retreat from Net Zero is under way
By Ross, Clark, Net Zero Watch, 2024
Green Energies Shattering German Economy…Industrial Production Falls 7th Consecutive Month
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Feb 7, 2024
Green backdowns — Chaos and division strikes UK Labour and German Greens over climate targets
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Feb 3, 2024
Is Sir Keir about to slay the Green Blob?
Press release, Net Zero Watch, Feb 9, 2024
Labour Cuts Green Budget By 80%
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 9, 2024
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Time to retire the term ‘renewable energy’ from serious discussion and energy policy directives
By Russell Schussler (Planning Engineer), Climate Etc. Feb 5, 2024
BP lost $1b in wind power and just flipped from cutting oil by 40% to increasing it
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Feb 9, 2024
Face It: The Energy Transition Ain’t Happening
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Feb 4, 2024
“’Empier Wind 2’s canceled contract sent shocks further down the supply chain. The day after Equinox and BP announced the cancellation, Sangapore-based Seatrium said its $250 million deal to build a substation for Empire Wind 2 was dead. So too was a contract with Dutch manufacturer Sir for turbine foundations. A contract for rock installation, which stabilizes the sea-floor around marine structures, with Texas-based Great Lakes Dredge & Dock corporation was also terminated. . ..
At the moment, New York’s climate gurus are out there scrambling to try to put something back together. Ultimately, it will never work; but it will be a good while before they admit that.’”
The True Costs of Net Zero Are Becoming Impossible to Hide
By Mike Shedlock, Mish Talk, Feb 6, 2024
Green Jobs
Green Jobs Bonanza?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 9, 2024
Link to report: Experimental estimates of green jobs, UK: 2023
Exploring estimates of green jobs using the industry, occupation and firm approaches.
By Staff, Office of National Statistics, Sep 27, 2023
“According to the ONS, the number of green jobs in the UK rose from 507,000 in 2015 to 526,000 in 2020.
Most of these are jobs that have traditionally existed, such as waste collection, forestry management, water and wider environmental activities. There are also 53500 non-jobs such as consultancy, charities and management.
When we strip these out, the jobs total rises from 168,000 to 179,000. Hardly earth shattering”
“Either way the number of manufacturing jobs already lost added to the ones which will be in future thanks to Net Zero will dwarf this handful of new green jobs.”
Funding Issues
The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034
By Staff, Congressional Budget Office, Feb 7, 2024
Litigation Issues
“Electrify Everything” Slammed Again By Ninth Circuit
Court’s latest ruling has national implications and affirms that bans on direct use of natural gas violate federal law.
By Robert Bryce, His Blog, Feb 5, 2024
Federal court finalizes $1.2B ‘forever chemicals’ settlement involving major firms
By Sharon Udansin, The Hill, Feb 8, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Where is the physical evidence of harm?]
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
Net Zero Watch says Sunak has snubbed climate advisers
Press release, Net Zero watch, Feb 5, 2024
Most North Sea oil and gas projects risk being ‘unviable’ under Labour plans
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 4, 2024
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
EU mulls emergency aid for collapsing solar producers
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 4, 2024
Energy Issues – Non-US
Another Net Zero retreat? Tories ditch ‘boiler tax’
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 4, 2024
“’ Manufacturers would have been fined if they missed heat pump targets — passing the costs on to consumers’”
Will EV Sales Hit 22% Target This Year?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 3, 2024
Link to: Zero emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate consultation: summary of responses and joint government response
By Staff, Department for Transport, Gov.UK, Oct 25, 2023
Energy Issues – Australia
Greens in Shock at Australia’s “Rally Against Reckless Renewables”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Feb 8, 2024
Energy Issues — US
On Energy Transition
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Feb 7, 2024
On Climate: “The Elites Have Flipped Worldviews” | Scott Tinker | EP 419
Video By Jordan B. Peterson, Via WUWT, Feb 6, 2024
In January Cold, the Texas Electricity Grid Held – Barely
By Bill King, Real Clear Energy, Feb 7, 2024
Are Activist Utility Regulators Putting Personal Agendas Over Doing Their Job?
By Paul Alexander, Real Clear Energy, Febr 02, 2024
Microsoft Russian Hack: A Dire Warning for Electric Grid Security
By Paul Steidler, Real Clear Energy, Feb 7, 2024
Democratic-led states join forces to boost heat pump use
By Zack Buddryk, The Hill, Feb 7, 2024
Washington’s Control of Energy
Germany’s Energy Sources Are Running Out As Biden Stops LNG Projects
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Feb 5, 2024
Biden tightens air pollution limits for deadly soot
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Feb 7, 2024
[SEPP Comment Where is the physical evidence justifying the regulations?]
Biden official defends gas permitting pause amid bipartisan scrutiny
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Feb 8, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Trying to justify the current ban on new increases in exports with the growth of exports as the US became a net exporter of natural gas for the first time ever.]
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Will U.S. Oil Boom Keep Booming?
By Irina Slav, Oil Price.com, Feb 04, 2024
[SEPP Comment: The constraints are largely political, not economic or physical.]
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Is Nuclear “Safe’? Let Price-Anderson Expire in 2025
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Feb 6, 2024
“’Nothing is so permanent as a temporary government program.’– Milton Friedman”
Nuclear News …. Little Good
By Kennedy Maize, Master Resource, Feb 9, 2024
The Future of American Energy Production Must Include Nuclear
By Tommy Tuberville, Real Clear Energy, Feb 05, 2024
lternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Amazon’s Deal With Moray West Wind Farm Baffles Silly Telegraph Reporter
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 5, 2024
“’When Amazon announced it was buying up half the output from one of Britain’s newest and biggest wind farms last week, it appeared like good news for Britain’s net zero ambitions.’”
Homewood: “For starters, Amazon won’t be running their operation on wind power, and consequently won’t be drawing renewable resources away from homes and businesses. If they really wanted to go green, they would cut themselves off from the grid, and obtain their electricity direct from wind and solar farms.”
Wind Speeds At Bingley
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 8, 2024
Update: https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2024/02/09/daily-average-wind-speeds-at-bingley/
“Most of the public probably believes that storms are getting more powerful, despite the Met Office stating the opposite to be the case.
This is inevitable given of the media coverage nowadays, amplified by giving every bit of windy weather a silly name.”
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
The U.S. Military Looks to Geothermal for Secure, Firm Power
By John Karakoulakis, Real Clear Energy, Feb 05, 2024
“There are different variations of this technology, but in general, cold water is pumped down the well and circulated back to the surface hundreds of degrees hotter. With the help of a heat exchanger, the hot water is used to drive a turbine that generates electricity without any emissions.”
[SEPP Comment: What is the temperature decrease in the geothermal area due to extraction of heat in the process?]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Ford Lost $4.7B On EVs Last Year, Or About $64,731 For Every EV It Sold
Electrifyingly bad news in Dearborn
By Robert Bryce, His Blog, Feb 7, 2024
Ford EV Crisis: “Our Gen 2 vehicles won’t launch unless we can … profit”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Feb 8, 2024
[SEPP Comment: “Ford’s official parts catalog for the F-150 Lightning shows that the standard range battery costs $28,556 while the extended pack will set you back $35,960. This excludes any labor costs.” According to the post, labor costs will more than double the battery cost.]
Just pause for a moment to appreciate how fast the EV transition is coming undone
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Feb 8, 2024
The West’s humiliating electric car climbdown has begun
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 5, 2024
“’ Billions of taxpayer’s money will have been wasted. We should draw the lesson from that, as bitter as it might prove. The Government never knows what the industries of the future will be – and should leave it to entrepreneurs and customers to work that out.’”
Ross Clark: The electric vehicles farce has reached a shambolic new low
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 7, 2024
EV Demand Tumbles In January
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 7, 2024
Electric cars: Lords urge action on ‘misinformation’ in press
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 7, 2024
“It probably won’t come as any great surprise to learn the Baroness Parminter has zero experience in transport, industrial or economic matters. The Deputy Leader of the Liberal Democrats in the Lords has spent most of her useful life campaigning for animal rights and conservation charities.”
Carbon Schemes
Study warns of overreliance on carbon dioxide removal in climate strategies
By y Simon Mansfield, Melbourne, Australia (SPX), Feb 02, 2024
Link to paper: Sustainability limits needed for CO2 removal
The true climate mitigation challenge is revealed by considering sustainability impacts
By Alexadra Deprez, AAAS Science, Feb 1, 2024
From the abstract: Not only does this risk locking us into a high overshoot above 1.5°C (3), but it will also increase biodiversity loss, imperiling the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (KMGBF) goals.
Link to post: Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework
By Staff: Convention on Biological Diversity, Dec 18, 2023
Link to goals: 2050 Goals
By Staff: Convention on Biological Diversity, Dec 18, 2023
California Dreaming
California Mega-Drought Update
By Caleb Shaw, Sunrise’s Swansong, Via WUWT, Feb 6, 2024
“This is not to say California doesn’t need to think hard about how it uses water. Roughly a billion gallons of water each day is slurped from the Colorado River to feed the thirst of San Diego and Los Angeles. If the population of California is roughly 40 million, that means each person guzzles 25 gallons each day. Something to think about. How much goes to stupid lawns which people never even use? How much goes to growing food that feeds 49 other states?”
[SEPP Comment: Both San Diego and Los Angeles are suitable for desalination plants that are now affordable thanks to advances in technology.]
Health, Energy, and Climate
Are We On The Cusp Of Historic Medical Technologies? (Part 1)
By Henry I. Miller, MS, MD, ACSH, Feb 6, 2024
A Bitterly Disappointing Verdict
By John Hinderaker, PowerLine, Feb 8, 2024
JC’s ethics complaint against Michael Mann
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Feb 8, 2024
Trial Of Mann v. Steyn, Part V: Jury Instructions And Closing Argument
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Feb 8, 2024
“On the other hand, Mann’s lawyer seemed to think that his best proof of ‘actual malice’ lay in the NSF report finding no research misconduct by Mann. Making ‘actual malice’ provable this way essentially means that members of the public are required to accept an official government party line to avoid exposing themselves to ruinous defamation suits. Maybe, just maybe, that argument could draw interest from the Supreme Court.
In a small note of optimism, I suspect that Steyn can get help if he wants it from pro bono lawyers to proceed with appeals. Alternatively, he may decide that his best approach is to leave the United States and not pay the judgment. That is the approach that Mann has taken with the judgment issued against him in Canada for his failed defamation suit against Tim Ball.”
Nothing Can Save ‘Climate Science’, Not Now
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, Feb 9, 2024
“Judith Curry tweeted ‘a huge blow for freedom of speech’. No. This was always a trial about ‘climate science’. It is also a huge blow for the integrity of historical temperature reconstructions.”
Climate scientist wins defamation case against right-wing writers
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Feb 9, 2024
Other Scientific News
Modern Scientific Controversies 2024: The Monarch Wars — Part 1
By Kip Hansen, Feb 6, 2024
Part 2: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/02/08/modern-scientific-controversies-2024-the-monarch-wars-part-2/
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Interesting News Items
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Feb 3, 2024
“The Great Salt Lake: Personhood ?”
Inequality is a climate problem
By Jessica McKenzie, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Feb 5, 2024
Link to Social Dimensions of Climate Change
As the climate continues to change, millions of poor people face increasing challenges in terms of extreme events, health effects, food, water, and livelihood security, migration and forced displacement, loss of cultural identity, and other related risks.
By Staff, The World Bank, Accessed Feb 7, 2024
[SEPP Comment: In the history humans, when has inequity not existed?]
Met Office Says Wear Warm Clothes When It’s Cold!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 5, 2024
The micro-gardens of climate death
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 7, 2024
“Speaking of the dreaded carbon footprint of farming, no sooner are we told to plant micro-gardens to calm our climate anxiety than a story blares ‘Carbon footprint of homegrown food five times greater than those grown conventionally’. Yaaaaaah!”
The Truth Comes Back To Haunt Bob Ward!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 8, 2024
ARTICLES
1. Biden’s Worst Energy Decision
His LNG export permit ban looks worse the more you examine it.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, Feb. 4, 2024
TWTW Summary: The editorial begins with:
“Congress this week will hold hearings on the permit freeze for new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export projects that President Biden announced two weeks ago. The closer one looks, the more harm this raw political payoff to the climate left will do to U.S. national security and economic interests.
The White House has been whispering to its European allies not to worry about its moratorium’s impact on LNG supply even as it crows to the climate lobby. Progressives are celebrating because they know the putative pause will shrink investment in LNG. Merely read the plaudits from climate potentates on the White House website.
‘The Biden administration is listening to the calls to break America’s reliance on dirty fossil fuels,’ Sierra Club executive director Ben Jealous proclaimed. ‘It’s undeniable that LNG export projects are simply not in the public interest and we are confident that if this review is done right, that would end the rubber-stamping of these projects.’ Got that, Mr. President?
The Energy Department is required by law to approve permits to export LNG to countries with which the U.S. doesn’t have free-trade agreements if they are in the ‘public interest.’ The department has never rejected a permit. But now the Administration plans to do so by redefining ‘public interest’ to include the potential impact on the climate.
The White House says the pause will only affect a handful of projects that are currently seeking Energy Department permits, but this is dishonest. It will also freeze about a half a dozen projects seeking Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approvals and could halt another dozen or so that have been permitted by previous Presidents.
That’s because the Energy Department in December announced that projects not yet operating will have to reapply for permits if it’s been seven years since they were authorized. So projects in the works could get deep-sixed—even if they have billions of dollars in committed capital and contractual agreements with customers.”
The editorial discusses how the uncertainty created by the ban on new export permits is aiding other countries in expanding their exports. It then concludes with:
“While the Administration downplays the national-security risks of its self-embargo, U.S. allies worry it will make them more vulnerable to geopolitical disruptions. About 20% of the global LNG supply travels through the Strait of Hormuz. LNG cargoes to Europe are now being diverted from the Red Sea because of Houthi missile attacks.
Russian and Iranian proxies could cause LNG prices to spike by attacking one or two large Qatar export facilities. Some countries in Asia might then burn more coal as they did in 2022 when LNG prices shot up. But Europeans are planning to retire coal and nuclear plants in the coming years on the expectation that they will have ample LNG from the U.S.
As for America’s economic interests, a single LNG export project will produce about $600 billion in revenue over its lifespan and create thousands of jobs, including in steel manufacturing and fracking—no government subsidies required.
Venture Global’s Gulf Coast CP2 could supply about 5% of the world’s LNG by 2026 and would have a bigger impact on the U.S. economy than any green energy project. It would also reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by 140 million tons a year—about as much as all container ships in the world produce. But it still needs an Energy Department permit.
We look forward to hearing Administration officials explain to Congress how this remarkably destructive ban is in the public interest.”
****************************
A Progressive California Epiphany Over Soaring Electricity Rates
Democrats want to repeal the graduated income tax on electricity they passed two years ago.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, Feb. 6, 2024
TWTW Summary: The editorial begins with:
Remember Nancy Pelosi’s famous line that Democrats had to pass ObamaCare to learn what was in it? Democrats in Sacramento are now having second thoughts about a law they passed two years ago that would effectively establish a second progressive income tax in California.
Democrats last week introduced legislation to repeal a 2022 budget bill that authorized the Public Utilities Commission (PUC) to restructure electricity rates by imposing a fixed charge on an income-graduated basis. The budget bill’s purpose was to reduce the state’s skyrocketing rates for lower-income people and shift utility costs to higher earners.
Average residential rates for investor-owned utility customers have surged by 72% to 127% over the past 10 years. About 2.5 million households are behind on their bills, averaging $733 in arrears.
One culprit is the state’s aggressive green-energy buildout, which has required batteries to back up intermittent solar and wind. Another is the state’s net-metering program, which generously compensates households with solar panels for excess power they send to the grid. This has shifted costs for maintaining the grid to homes without solar panels.
Lawmakers have also shifted state government costs for wildfire mitigation and climate subsidies to utilities so the politicians can devote more spending to their public-union friends. At the same time the state has mandated that utilities provide discounts to lower-income customers. These discounts get baked into higher rates for all customers.
The climate lobby frets that soaring electricity rates will discourage low- and middle-income Californians from buying electric vehicles (though they are also an inducement to install solar panels). Thus, Gov. Gavin Newsom two years ago pressured the Legislature to pass the budget bill to establish the nation’s first income-based electricity rates.
The editorial described that although some members of the Assembly objected the bill was passed, then concludes with:
“The PUC hasn’t finalized the new electric rate structures. But Pacific Gas & Electric Company has floated charging customers fixed fees ranging from $15 a month for those earning less than $28,000 annually and up to $92 a month for those making $180,000 or more. Income-based charges on higher earners will rise as utility costs do.
Ten state Senators recently sent a letter urging the PUC to reject utilities’ proposed income charges. ‘Californians already pay some of the highest electric bills in the nation and should not be forced to arbitrarily pay more to cover for a private utility’s poor business decisions,’ San Francisco progressive Sen. Scott Wiener declared.
No—they will be forced to pay more to compensate for Sacramento’s bad policy decisions. The progressive epiphany in Sacramento is welcome, belated as it may be. Maybe California isn’t completely lost.”
“”Western governments are trying to force an energy transition onto their populations that the people clearly do not want.””
What people ‘want’ – if it runs counter to the political direction mapped out by the elected dictatorship – is often described crudely as populism – something that is popular with the majority of voting people. As The Guardian’s Timothy Garton Ash put it:
“”What we see in all these nationalist populisms is an ideology that claims that the directly expressed will of “the people” trumps all other sources of authority. “”
Populists are out to divide us. They must be stopped
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/11/populists-us
Ash is clearly a traditional feudalist who believes that the oiks should shut up and do as they are told by their educated betters. The BBC handily gives the game away….
“”Populism is on the rise – especially among Europe’s right””
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-43301423
What people want it turns out is by default right-wing, if not far-right.
“”When I see the term ‘populism’ used, I know the author is referring to a movement the author he or she doesn’t like. That is what it does. It signals to the listener that the thing they are deprecating is to be deprecated.””
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38443035
I believe Hillary called them a basket of deplorables… and that went well.
I had one troll tell me that anything done by government is by definition, “the will of the people”, so it can’t be questioned.
Back n the 80s an organization attempting to get a constitutional proposition onto the Californai ballet to force a change in income tax basis and regulations led whit the declaration that no economic activity is of any value save by virtue of being controlled by government, therefore government has an intrinsic right to part of every transaction.
BTW, if you list out the policies of most of the politicians who are labeled, or label themselves as populists, most of them are decidedly left wing.
For the most part, these policies boil down to more free stuff, paid for by more taxes on rich people.
Don’t miss the subsidy window….. (closes on April 5th)
Taxi drivers issue urgent warning of ‘absolutely disastrous’ future if electric car grants are scrapped
https://www.gbnews.com/lifestyle/cars/taxi-driver-urgent-warning-disastrous-electric-car-grants
They’re not keen on a level playing field.
Financial Times:
‘Enshittification’ is coming for absolutely everything
The term describes the slow decay of online platforms such as Facebook. But what if we’ve entered the ‘enshittocene’?
Get a decent toilet roll….
Thanks Ken. Your summaries and analysis are very helpful.
I’m 69, retired from a fairly demanding technical career. My preference would be to (as the Indians charmingly say “go F off now”). But it seems I have to learn about this vast subject. It’s not simple or easy. I don’t enter the fray, as I’m not competent enough to make useful comments. I’ve my gut feel (which has been pretty reliable IME) about the whole climate thing – it’s a monstrous fraud. In the end, it’s driven by human weaknesses – egotism and greed.
How China Calculated Its Way to a Baby Bust
A missile scientist used mathematical models to push the nation’s one-child policy. Its legacy is proving hard to shake.
https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-population-births-economy-one-child-c5b95901?st=50ojjyicbykjmd6&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
With his computer-assisted mathematical models and political connections, Song caught the attention of top leaders. He argued that rapid population growth would prevent China from becoming a rich, modern country,
(WSJ)
Now they’re worried about population shrinkage.
Does that sound like “computer-assisted mathematical models and political connections” that are predicting Global Warming?
The problem with many models, but especially climate and in this case population models, is that they take a single factor and to the exclusion of everything else, assume that this single factor is the only one that matters. Not just for now, but far into the future.
For population models, they assume that exponential growth in population would continue forever and that wealth could at best, only grow linearly.
Even back in the 60’s there was ample evidence that neither assumption was true.
Wherever the people are not being burdened by excessive government (taxes and regulations), wealth creation could easily exceed population growth.
Wherever wealth was being created, population growth slowed.
There is no need for freedom of thought. Don’t you know, the science is already settled.
For the terminally clueless, that’s sarcasm.
About that $4 Trillion and “ how much it would cost to make renewable energy reliable“
It would not be in the interest of the ClimateCult™ to do that.
The serious questions would be – – Has the $4 T changed the slope of the ppm CO2, or has it changed any natural process. (It has destroyed many square miles of habitats for wild things.)
In developed countries, the introduction of “renewable energy” has made the supply of
electricity less reliable.
In a mass act of civil disobedience, activists blocked “every single” camera in the borough of Sutton used to enforce Sadiq Khan’s climate car tax.
This just came across my feed. This is what’s happening in the north Mojave Desert. If this sticks, I’d say Mojave Pistachio (a billion dollar operation) will pull out as $30 million per year fee for pumping 15,000 acre-feet isn’t going to make a profit (sarc). I’ve no sympathy for MP, at all. You had to be here to understand the ruthless tactics this company used to exploit CA water law and try to crush this community – they really do intend to suck all of the water out without any consideration of the 30,000 people who live here.
I’ve plenty of misgivings about all of this, I don’t like some of the language in this court ruling – it smacks of ever-increasing government power. On the other hand, I’m one of the small and weak that was being crushed by this heartless corporation. I doubt these fees will ever be used to bring more water into the basin, but I’m hoping this is a stake through the heart of this water vampire, And the enviable coming water crisis is at least delayed.
Obviously, there are parallels here to “renewable” power developments.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE CONTACT: Carol Thomas-Keefer 650-587-7300 X17 cthomaskeefer@rgs.ca.gov COURT OF APPEALS RULES IN FAVOR OF INDIAN WELLS VALLEY GROUNDWATER AUTHORITY IN FEE CHALLENGE BROUGHT BY DESERT PISTACHIO GROWER
February 8, 2024 — Ridgecrest, CA – In a groundbreaking published opinion described as having “great public importance” that could “impact thousands of water users throughout the state for years to come,” the California Court of Appeals denied a request to avoid paying a fee needed to preserve groundwater resources brought by a farmer that used the water to grow pistachio trees in an arid desert. The court also barred any claims for damages associated with the imposition of the fee and questioned the farmer’s right to use water in such a seemingly frivolous manner.
The dispute arose based on a replenishment fee adopted by the Indian Wells Valley Groundwater Authority (IWVGA). The Authority was formed by Kern County, Inyo County, San Bernardino County, the Indian Wells Valley Water District, and the City of Ridgecrest to address the critical overdraft of the Indian Wells Valley Groundwater Basin, which spans approximately 600 square miles across parts of Kern, Inyo, and San Bernardino Counties. With no significant surface water or importation infrastructure, the basin is the region’s sole source of water. The Department of Water Resources has identified the basin as critically overdrafted, with groundwater levels declining since 1945. The IWVGA estimates a loss of groundwater storage of about 25,000 acre-feet per year.
Naval Air Weapons Station China Lake, the largest landholding by the U.S. Navy globally, is situated within the basin, accounting for a portion of groundwater extraction. The remaining area supports residential and agricultural activities, including the party that brought the lawsuit, Mojave Pistachios, which cultivates pistachios in this arid region. Mojave Pistachio claimed the legal right to use nearly all of the available water to support its nut cultivation.
The Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) mandates the creation of groundwater sustainability plans. IWVGA’s plan explained that the Basin is solely dependent on groundwater; current outflows are about four times the estimated inflows; groundwater levels are dropping by up to 2.5 feet annually; the Basin does not currently have access to imported water; and up to 50 miles of infrastructure must be built to import water. To finance this critical infrastructure, IWVGA determined the need for a fee from those benefiting from the projects. Ordinance No. 03-20, effective January 2021, instituted a Basin replenishment fee of $2,130 per acre-foot. From 2021 to the present, Mojave has continued to pump water from the basin at an alarming rate while failing to pay the fee — claiming instead that payment was unnecessary because the fee was an “illegal infringement on their water rights.”
In a sharply written, published legal opinion, the California Court of Appeals disagreed. The court confirmed the trial court’s prior decision to throw out Mojave’s legal claims against the fee. In doing so, the court applied the “pay first, litigate later” rule, which is a principle that requires taxpayers to pay a disputed tax before they can challenge it in court. The “pay first” rule is important because it allows for the continuation of revenue collection during litigation, ensuring that government operations reliant on such funds are not interrupted.
Before today, no court had determined whether the “pay first” rule applied in cases challenging fees imposed by a groundwater sustainability agency under SGMA. In a first of its kind decision, the court applied the “pay first” rule to the replenishment fee, stating that any legal challenge to the fee, which is aimed at managing the critically overdrafted groundwater basin, must be preceded by the payment of the fee, even if the fee is contested as violating SGMA or California water law.
As the court noted: “If groundwater extractors like Mojave can challenge a fee without first paying it, that could defeat SGMA’s goal of managing overdrafted groundwater basins.” The court also found that Mojave Pistachios could not pursue any damages claims against the Authority based on the fee as these claims had also been waived.
In a stunning rebuke of Mojave Pistachio’s claims about the size of the fee the court noted Benjamin Franklin’s famous quote: “When the well’s dry, we know the worth of water.” The court reminded them that the fee was not even very high given the costs it intended to pay. “The Replenishment Fee . . . is not grossly out of line with the fees charged by other agencies.”
In the most striking part of the decision the court also questioned whether Mojave Pistachios even had any right to water in the first place. The court noted that “groundwater belongs to the state, not any person or entity” and that “water rights holders have the right to “take and use water,” but they do not own the water and cannot waste it .” The court asked: “Is using the Basin’s limited groundwater to irrigate a water-intensive crop like pistachios in the middle of the high desert a “reasonable and beneficial” use of water protected under the California Constitution, particularly considering most of those trees were planted less than 10 years ago?”
The court then asked more pointedly: “does a vested overlying right to groundwater mean a vested overlying right to free groundwater?”
With this issue now settled, the Authority will renew its legal motion to require Mojave Pistachios to pay fees for the water that it has improperly used. The Authority will seek to have this matter resolved in the next few months. ### Note: This press release is for informational purposes only and does not reflect any legal advice or opinion on the ongoing legal proceedings
This is scary …
Climate activists just ruined the display of the Constitution in the Rotunda of the National Archives in DC
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