By Robert Bradley Jr. — January 18, 2024
“The fix is in with Doug Lewin, whose mission is the eradication of fossil fuels in power generation via the ‘virtual power plant’… Pick your term between ‘energy transformation,’ ‘deep decarbonization,’ Net Zero, Green New Deal.”
Doug Lewin, climate alarmist and PR voice for the Texas renewables industry, posts on social media with the tag line, “Growing jobs, increasing justice, and reducing pollution in Texas.” In his Texas Energy and Power Newsletter, he blamed the state’s current freeze on Global Warming (aka climate change) as follows:
Climate Impacts: We’ve Seen This Movie Before
A few days ago, when the forecasts for Jan. 15 were still at or near freezing, I started feeling like we’ve seen this movie before: warnings of a weakening polar vortex, steadily worsening forecasts each day … This is what happened in February 2021 and December 2022. And it’s happening again.
These severe storms did not used to be so common. But this will be the third time in four winters that one has hit Texas. This underscores the growing body of data that suggests climate change is fueling Arctic warming, which weakens the polar vortex (a jet stream-like air current 10-30 miles above the Earth) allowing Arctic blasts and exceptionally low temperatures into the continental US.
Monique Sellers of the National Weather Service talked with the Dallas Morning News about the connection to climate change. “Climate change plays a role, Sellers said. The average winter temperature in Texas is rising. But conditions are also more volatile, with intense, short-term freezes increasing in likelihood each year.”
“‘One of the confounding conundrums of climate change is that winter has become warmer, but we have more deep freezes,’ Sellers said.”
We’re unfortunately getting more evidence of this with each passing year. Texas is growing. If future winter storms are going to be more extreme, we need to be ready. Peak demand on cold winter mornings is growing at a stunning rate…. We’ve got to act — quickly — to address the other side of the supply-demand equation.
Unusual cold from unusual warming? Settled science? Just the opposite. This hypothesis turns out to be bogus. I posted at the Climate Change Professionals Group (LinkedIn):
Posts from the ‘climate alarmist’ side are linking severe cold snaps such as in the U.S. presently on global warming effects: “Climate scientist blames global warming for more Arctic blasts in winter.” This hypothesis is countered by a recent article in Nature (2023):
“No detectable trend in mid-latitude cold extremes during the recent period of Arctic amplification,” Judah Cohen, Laurie Agel, Mathew Barlow & Dara Entekhabi
It is widely accepted that Arctic amplification—accelerated Arctic warming—will increasingly moderate cold air outbreaks to the mid-latitudes. Yet, an increasing number of recent studies also argue that Arctic amplification can contribute to more severe winter weather. Here we show that the … temperature of cold extremes across the United States east of the Rockies, Northeast Asia and Europe have remained nearly constant over recent decades, in clear contrast to a robust Arctic warming trend.
Analysis of trends in the frequency and magnitude of cold extremes is mixed across the US and Asia but with a clearer decreasing trend in occurrence across Europe, especially Southern Europe. This divergence between robust Arctic warming and no detectable trends in mid-latitude cold extremes highlights the need for a better understanding of the physical links between Arctic amplification and mid-latitude cold extremes.
John Christens of the alarmist side responded:
Rob Bradley – So glad to see that you’re now posting research that supports the conclusions of the UN IPCC and the US National Climate Assessment (NASA, EPA, DOE, NSF, Smithsonian Institute, etc.) and is consistent with everything we would expect from Anthropogenic Global Warming. (here)
To which I responded:
Frankly, the false narrative you and I decry (thank you) was used by Doug Lewin in his influential Texas Energy and Power Newsletter and by several folks against me on LinkedIn threads.
So yes, I am happy to report that this is a PR stunt by climate alarmists to make their point in the middle of unusually cold times.
Now, if the GHG signal is not oriented toward summer afternoons but winter nights at high latitudes, will the alarmist community also tone down the exaggeration? Can you call that out too?
Final Comment
The fix is in with Doug Lewin, whose mission is the eradication of fossil fuels in power generation via the “virtual power plant,” a mix of:
- Open-ended wind and solar subsidies to continue to idle thermal generation;
- Batteries (a third subsidy play) as needed for renewable intermittency;
- “Smart meters” in the home and business to price-ration demand to (wounded) supply.
This is a government play. Pick your term between “energy transformation,” “deep decarbonization,” Net Zero, Green New Deal. And inexcusably, it is the end goal of a faux classical liberal, electricity technocrat Lynne Kiesling, who recently endorsed Lewin as follows:
ERCOT needs reform, but not in the direction they have gone. An essential source of information about Texas is Doug Lewin’s Texas Energy and Power Newsletter. Too many of his essays have been important and insightful for me to pick one, so I’ll just recommend subscribing to his newsletter if you want to keep up with one of the most vibrant local economies in the US and the steps and missteps its political leaders are taking as they try to balance the many objectives of such a complex system.
More intervention in the name of correcting prior? “Fixing” political control rather than removing it? I will deal with Kiesling’s bizarre “free market” statism in a future post.
How long do the public have to put up with politicians and their advisors telling us to do without this or do without that?
Surely the candidates can stand on their (re)election platform and tell all the voters what they will have to go without if the candidate wins.
Be honest, not one of them would tell you that your cash is gone, your heating may be switched off in winter/cooling in summer and your car is going to be limited to 200km refills, once per day.
Honesty in candidates, I’d like to see that. BEFORE THEY GET ELECTED.
Truth in advertising doesn’t apply to politicians.
Or many “journalists”, or NOAA, or NASA GISS.
Or to religious organisations.
or to advertisers
People can’t vote for policies, because every candidate has too many confused and contradictory policies, and the public knows they are meaningless twaddle.
So people vote for personalities, because face it, when the shit hits the fan, what else is there but to hope the one in power has some semblance of rationality?
Certainly no rationality in the current administration
And not very much in congress. Speaker Johnson said he was “prepared to die on this hill” in reference to passing a budget without closing down the flood of invaders through the southern border.
Last night he surrendered and retreated from that hill, putting through a CR in the dark of the night. One that more Democrats voted for than Republicans.
“Meet the new boss, same as the old boss”
ah this…
You have your chance to vote for Trump and a landslide to wipe out the Democrat party from the House and Senate, so Trump can put an end to all of it, as quickly as possible, with mindful fuss or muss. That will reduce government expenses and leave room for less taxes, and less rules and regulations
Vote your pocket book
Should read Minimal
Ignore all the BS.
Natural forces cause variations in weather conditions, not CO2 ppm, which gradually increases. Any of its effects would be gradual.
DEEP OCEAN VOLCANOS CAUSE INCREASED GLOBAL WARMING BY PERIODIC EL NINOs
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/natural-forces-cause-periodic-global-warming
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EXCERPT
COP28: the Climate Church in Conclave
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During 2023, global warming was never out of the mainstream Media spotlight. This warming was eagerly highlighted at COP28 in Dubai.
The UN chief, Antonio Guterres, scare-mongered about a “boiling earth”.
Such pronouncements are relentlessly magnified by the IPCC, associated entities and mainstream Media.
They are colluding to keep people misinformed.
COP28 had a gigantic CO2 footprint, with 88,000 registered in the blue zone and 40,000 in the green zone, including the world’s elite, with jet planes, yachts, staying at 5-star hotels, etc.
They spouted a pseudo-science, based on subjective air temperature models for a non-existent problem.
The image of the temperature models is a distortion of reality, as seen through the lens of biased observers
The essential shortcoming of the IPCC-sanctioned climate models is, they do not reflect the reality of objective data, such as measured by satellites since 1979.
The divergence between subjective, IPCC-sanctioned models and satellite reality is mind boggling. See image 1
Open URL to read more
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What Is Climate? by Richard Lindzen, MIT Environmental Scientist
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/what-is-climate-by-richard-lindzen-mit-environmental-scientist
Excerpt
We are told, the following defines ‘climate’…
Speaking of BS you sure piled it high and deep with your complete nonsense
“DEEP OCEAN VOLCANOS CAUSE INCREASED GLOBAL WARMING BY PERIODIC EL NINOs”
No data for global average heat releases of underseas volcanoes. Any conclusion is just a wild guess non science
So Ek Ninos cause all global warming?
Forgot about those La Nina cooling events? Never mind them — not good for your claptrap theory.
You must think EL Ninos caused all the warming from 1975 to 2023 … but from 1940 to 1975 they caused global cooling?
It seems that in your weak mind El Ninos can cause global cooling and global warming too. A mind is a terrible thing to waste.
You are an El Nino Volcano Nutter
And dickie-green is DENIER of reality.
Denies El Nino warming,
(thinks all El Ninos act the same…ie totally ignorant)
Denies volcanic warming, despite a far better correlation than CO2
Denies solar warming, (basement dwellers do that)
A true AGW cultist nutcase.!!
“A mind is a terrible thing to waste.”
Yet there you are… a complete brain-washed AGW wastrel.
And STILL doesn’t even slightly comprehend how El Ninos and LA Ninas operate.
And absolutely determined never to understand… wishes to remain gormless.
Well to this day the anchovy know before any human does.
You remain the Forrest Gump of climate science and the Don Rickles of insults.
Zero evidence an underseas volcano produces enough heat to be measured at the ocean surface
The long term ENSO cycle is temperature neutral..
The La Ninas offset the El Ninos over 30 to 50 year periods. Climate requires at least a 30 year period — 50 years is even better
As usual your climate science knowledge does not exist.
Richard,
I welcome your comments
They are so funny.
You should read the article, as there have been changes and additions.
And your junk science makes me laugh too.
In ONE Week a very hot spot of SST off the east coast of Australia showed up. In the last month multiple hot spots have shown up in the Pacific and they correlate with seismic recorded seismic activity!
Apparently what people don’t understand is that the magma chambers are larger than the volcano and heat the strata around the cones or vents.
There are an estimated 30,000 black smokers along the mid ocean Atlantic ridge alone. Geothermal heating does not occur just at the active vents but all along the slopes of the rift where the plates are separating where ever there is even low level seismic activity.
The Pacific plate is moving 3-4 inches a year! Of course there is intermittent strong and wide spread geothermal activity. And there is a lot more energy being released than just where the lava is ejected into the surface.
I’m no geologist or vulcanologist, but it sure seems obvious to me that what is happening beneath the surface of the earth which had the ability to form the oceans and continents as we know them sure as hell can have a significant effect on their temperature.
I know I’ve probably wasted my time writing this. Based on what I have read in your comments to me and others in the select, you would deny it is possible even if the equivalent of the Siberian traps was occurring in the abyss.
There are no global average statistics for the annual heat releases from underseas volcanoes
Therefore we have no idea whether the trend of heat released is rising, abiut the sane or falling.
That means we can not determine if the 30 year trend of underseas volcano heat releases are causing global warming, global cooling or not affecting the surface temperature at all over a 30 year or longer period.
Without data there is no science.
How many submarine volcanoes are there 2023?
In April 2023, a new seamount catalog was published that used data collected from radar satellites. Yet, there is still more to be done. While the catalog detected more than 43,000 submarine volcanoes in the Earth’s waters, only 16,000 have been charted in detail by sonar tools.
Nov 28, 2023
Only 119 submarine volcanoes in Earth’s oceans and seas are known to have erupted during the last 11,700 years
“known to erupt” And common sense doesn’t tell you that number does not represent the actual since oceans cover about 70% of the earths surface and there are over 1,500 known active volcanoes on earth now? You actually believe that the ring of fire is most active above sea level than below it? That only eruptions can cause significant warming?
blob:https://wattsupwiththat.com/dad254c1-714d-45b6-a40c-3f0b1bbd87f5
underwater seismic activity for the same time period:
blob:https://wattsupwiththat.com/fcc65c51-cd36-4d60-8438-77719ec7de2c
Line of known seismic activity lines up nearly perfectly with SS hot spots.
Crap! Won’t let me post the images!
blob:https://wattsupwiththat.com/ea25bb0a-bff8-4287-ada6-19b79e4b4abf
Honesty in candidates, I’d like to see that
ever.
Claiming climate change causes extreme cold has been going on for some time.
Here’s John Holdren on that old You Tube from ten years ago:
The Polar Vortex Explained in 2 Minutes
Climate alarmists claim everything is caused by climate change.
They have climate change on the brain.
It’s an obsession, based on nothing, because there is no evidence CO2 is causing any climate changes. Obsessed Climate Alarmists see what they want to see, not what is really there. And then they plagued the rest of us with their climate change delusions.
Same with racism – both have become meaningless due to the constant exaggeration
Same with racism
Does climate change cause racism or does racism cause climate change? I’ve seen both argued. Also, climate change is racist.
I can’t keep up…
If people consider a weather event bad there will always be some alarmists that will blame it on “climate change”.
Every weather event is BAD, rah.
Especially weird weather like cold winters and hot summers. But also, and especially especial, the disaster of a mild winter with a lack of debilitating ice and snow in New York City. Or as has happened in living memory, actual summer in the UK.
Only a full and definitive plunge into glaciation can save us now!
“But also, and especially, the disaster of a mild winter with a lack of debilitating ice and snow in New York City.”
I’m *so* glad it snowed in New York City. I was getting real tired of hearing meteorologists tell us it had not snowed in New York City for 700 days. They told us over and over again, as if this actually meant something significant.
But it snowed in New York City this week, so we don’t have to hear about a lack of snow for a while.
For these climate zealots this is all a sign that Gaia is not happy, and only more sacrifice (from you) will atone for our sins.
Meanwhile the UK’s freeze continues and in my estimation this is the coldest it has been in January for quite a while. What intrigued me, but wasn’t reported by any MSM, is that of the five warmest places in the British Isles on Wednesday not one was on mainland UK. Two Scilly Islands, two Channel Islands, and Malin Head (Ireland), were the places listed and I wondered how often this has happened before given all the superlatives we get thrown at us by meteorological outlets when reporting ‘record heat’ [sic].
Balances reporting is a fine thing and was once evidence of professionals who care. Where have all the professionals gone and just who are these weak replacements?
Don’t worry: it’s forecast to go from -5°C to +11°C by the weekend
Britain is switching between polar and equatorial airflows.
https://twitter.com/JunkScience/status/1747985452886360200
The longer we observe weather, the more likely we are to observe an extreme event.
What is changing is not the climate. It is the length of the observation coupled with faulty statistics.
Examine the height of every person on earth randomly. Every now and then you will come across a person that is taller than everyone previous
This is proof of height change. That people are getting taller.
Also you will come across people that are shorter than all the rest. Proof that extremes are increasing as well
Height science 101.
The increase in very cold NH winters this century surprised scientists because it was contrary to expectations and opposite to what models predict.
It is due to the weakening of the polar vortex, which is responsible for both Arctic warming and very cold winters.
In my last book, “Solving the Climate Puzzle,” I defend that it is due to the decrease in solar activity since solar cycle 23 resulting in an inversion of the previous trend. I offer several pieces of evidence, one of which is the inverted relationship between decadal solar activity (Gaussian filter) and the percentage of NH land undergoing unusually cold conditions (Figure 70 in the book).
Although vortex strength is affected by more than one factor, a mid-line between both thick curves in the figure will divide the space between them into two symmetrical areas.
It is clear from the figure that global warming cannot cause first a decrease in cold winters and then an increase. There is more evidence in the book showing that when solar activity becomes low the Arctic warms, as it happened in the 1920s. This is known by a few scientists, who have published on the issue.
Kobashi, T., Box, J.E., Vinther, B.M., Goto‐Azuma, K., Blunier, T., White, J.W.C., Nakaegawa, T. and Andresen, C.S., 2015. Modern solar maximum forced late twentieth century Greenland cooling. Geophysical Research Letters, 42(14), pp.5992-5999.
“The increase in very cold NH winters this century surprised scientists“
This false claim certainly confused you, with your claptrap sun theories, BECAUSE IT DID NOT HAPPEN.
IN SE MICHIGAN WHERE I LIVE
Warmer winters with far less snow since the 1970s
FOR THE US
The winter period from December to February is now the fastest-warming of the three-month seasons for nearly 75% of the US, according to an analysis of NOAA temperature data by Climate Central, a nonprofit climate research group. Dec 21, 2023
GLOBAL WINTERS
Cold extremes are becoming less frequent,” she said. Not only that, but the temperatures during cold snaps are becoming warmer.
On average, winters are getting warmer and shorter, with fewer places experiencing extremely cold temperatures. However, because the warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, blizzards are more likely to occur and be more severe in places where temperatures are still cold enough for snow.
Most cold weather records for nations were set before the year 2000
List of weather records – Wikipedia
I bet not in the 200K years of human existence, anyone ever complained about a mild winter- until the recent hysteria. (not counting skiers of course- actually, they prefer mild temperatures and deep snow)
CO2 ppm is the lowest it has been for 600 million years, very close to flora starvation. That is why we have so many areas with deserts.
We have to plant trees, billions of them each year
it’s not the only reason for deserts- it’s mostly due to being on the wrong side of a mountain range or in any area with mostly high atm. pressure
but planting trees is a great idea- but we also need to cut trees- it’s called forestry!
Dickie-boy still “believes” in atmospheric warming by CO2, despite NEVER being able to produce scientific evidence
He DENIES the effect of El Ninos as the only atmospheric warming in the satellite data.
He DENIES the existence of urban warming .. or thinks it doesn’t heavily affect urban thermometers.
Hi level of deliberate ignorance is on par with the simpleton or fungal.
He is way passed being a lukewarmer….. but is a rabid AGW NUTTER.
I also believe you are a fool
Winter of 82-83. Annual ski and winter warfare training, 3rd Bn, 10th SFG, Stowe, VT. Temperature-30, windchill – 90 at the exposed peak of the mountain.
After the ski training came the field exercise. My first winter warfare training experience 15 days no result moving through the Green mountains of Vermont with other SF teams chasing us in Feb.
When I got into the sleeping bag all IVs and other temperature sensitive meds and my canteens went in with me. My leather Hathaway mountaineering boots were my pillow to keep them from freezing so solid that I wouldn’t be able to get them on.
I lost 15 lb in those 15 days. One of the toughest tests I ever endured.
Never got above 0 F in those 15 days. Proud that no team member suffered a cold weather injury.
When I was in the army (’66-68) I was assigned to the Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory in Hanover, New Hampshire; my wife and I lived in Woodstock, Vermont. I saw many days that started off with temperatures in the -20 to -10 deg F range. A few days before mustering out at Fort Devens (MA) in early-January, I had to leave early in the morning. There was a yellow aurora visible in the north sky, as well as an ice fog high over the Connecticut River valley; ice fogs typically form at temperatures below -40. It had been below zero night and day for 10 days in Vermont, and and even Massachusetts. After being discharged at Fort Devens, I had to drive back to Woodstock to pick up my wife to start the drive back to California. The closer I got to Woodstock, the worse my 4-year old Chevy V8 ran. I had never in the two years there experienced my pickup acting like that, even on the drive down to Fort Devens. Being a California boy, I didn’t have the wherewithal to to partially block the radiator with some cardboard. I told my wife that we would just keep driving that night until my pickup started running normally, so that I could expect to be able to start it in the morning. We were in Rochester (NY) before we started looking for a motel. My guess is that it was well below -30 that night on the 13th of January in Vermont.
Ft. Devens was where I was stationed during that time. Was there for 5 1/2 years until I had a PCS to Flint Kassern. Bad Tolz.
We worked with Natic labs field testing the new extreme cold weather package that the Army still uses to this day.
Early May one year, I and a couple of my teammates walked up Mt. Washington during our time off. Nice and warm and we were in shorts and T-shirts. We were at the weather station observation deck when it started to snow. We ran back down the road.
From what I have read, you were very lucky. Many people have died taking a day-hike to the top of Mt. Washington, dressed exactly as you were, and never made it back to their cars before hypothermia set in. Part of the problem, besides being unprepared for the abrupt change in weather, is that one can experience white-out conditions and lose the trail or fall down and get injured.
When I was on TDY to Greenland, I was staying in barracks in Camp Tuto, about 10 or 20 miles east of Thule Air base. There were survival huts along the road, I think I remember it being about every mile. That was because blowing snow created white-out conditions that reduced visibility so badly that one might drive off the road and wreck the vehicle. Without the engine running, there would be no heat and people might freeze to death in the vehicle before being found. I got off the plane from the states in early-July and the air temperature was 32 deg F with gusty wind.
We were all quite fit. Able to Ron 6 min miles for 6 or 7 miles.
That an impressive story. My old climbing buddy’s dad was 1st Special
Forces WW2 “Devils Brigade”. His son never knew he was even in
the military until he was drafted during the Vietnam era, he never
spoke of it. He did share some stories one night later in life and I was privileged to be there and hear them, they were about the battle of Anzio
his time in Italy. He started talking around 8pm and went on till after
3am. He passed on a short while later.
I have been a backcounty skier here in the Northern Rockies
for years and was a climber in my younger days. I have practiced
overnight survival skills a few times but thankfully never had to put them to serious use. I appreciate your experience and time in service..
It’s amazing what a person can endure when they have the proper attitude, training l, and experience. After that first experience I never again had a tough time during winter warfare training. Not even when I attended the Norwegian winter warfare school inn Dumbas above the Arctic circle.
The first special service force. In the SF linage. The elite of the elite. The crossed arrows, shape of the patch, and other SF symbols come from them, as did the presidential unit citation I wore.
I went to high school with the children of the men from that unit. It
was a joint Canadian-American unit. In Helena at Memorial Park
there is a monument with the names of the fallen from that unit.
Very sobering place. Special Forces still train here, a couple of my hunting buddies helped train them in the use of horses, saddle and pack back at the start of the Afghanistan war.
Back in the ’90 they were training
in the area and came into town from the Fort for a night out before leaving. As it happened to be I was working as a mechanic and was on a loading dock next to a rough biker bar and saw a duece and a half pull
up in that parking lot at the end of the day, the canvas flap opened up and a dozen or so clean cut guys jumped out and went into the bar and the truck left.
I finished up, went home and I got a phone call from an old friend
from the highline who was in town for the weekend to party. I
always was the sober chauffeur for these guys, and told him I would
meet him at the Corner Pocket in a half and hour. He exclaimed
the Corner Pocket? I said yea. It’s a long story and everytime
I see him he always brings it up….it was memorable. There were
Delta Force, Green Berets, Navy Seals a very mixed group, I almost
got my buddy killed but was able to step in and sort things out before
it got going. We ended up drinking with them till closing time…I had
my usual seven-up. They had spent a couple weeks living in Helena’s sewer system on a infiltration type exercise. It was never in the local news of course. I know some other guys from Delta that
I can’t talk about here.
The movie The Devils Brigade is a true representation of how the men were selected though it is at least a reasonable representation of the training, drama of command, and actions. Here is a 42 minute documentary that tells the true story but leaves out some details.
https://youtu.be/2P_8XJa2XO8
2P_8XJa2XO8
This unit is in the US Army Special Forces direct linage and I and all SF qualified soldiers wear the Presidential Unit Citation from the 1st SSF on our uniforms.
Other SF symbology that to this day immortalizes the legacy those wonderful heros left to us:
This is the SF crest today.
blob:https://wattsupwiththat.com/a71cbebe-168a-4b4a-b1b6-48d1a7f80df1
The crossed arrows:
First used as the symbol of the Indian scouts that served the US Army in the west starting in the 1860s to identify them as friendly. It became the branch insignia worn on the collars of the First Special Service Force. And now is the branch insignia of the US Army Special Forces.
The knife/dagger shown is a representation of the V-42 fighting knife:
The V-42 is an adaption of the Fairbairn Sykes fighting knife first developed by those two men for the Singapore police force before WWII. The Fairbairn Sykes was issued to British Commandos and other elite units and any soldier in England could have bought one for their personal use.
An Englishman that had been a trainer and member of the Singapore police before the war trained the 1st FSSF men in knife fighting and silent kill techniques.
“Knife, Fighting, Commando Type, V-42.” The Original Special Forces Knife – The Army Historical Foundation (armyhistory.org)
The movie is NOT a true representation of how the men were selected. They were not misfits and trouble makers.
If random, records set ought to be somewhat proportional to the length of periods compared. So, what is the length of time of recording events before year 2000 compared to the length after 2000?
Cold temperature records should become less common after 1975 with global waring and they have.
Number of cold records 1926 – 1974??
Number of cold records 1975 – 2023??
global waring will always be with us
Surprise… not!… dickie-boy uses the AGW chosen period that was the coldest since the 1940’s as his reference.
A true AGW stall-wart, aren’t you dickie.
Following the AGW memes to the letter.. as you have been brain-washed to do.
An overdose of stupid pills today?
You forget that USHCN maximum temperatures are also decreasing – due to decreasing solar activity.
And yet this year new all time cold records were set in Montana.
The following from Joe De’Aleo at Weatherbell.
“West Yellowstone is easily among the coldest cities in Montana and may just be the coldest of them all. It is a small town located on the edge of Yellowstone National Park and it is known for its extremely cold temperatures. The town has a high elevation of 6,000 feet, which primarily contributes to its cold climate.
West Yellowstone is the coldest city in the contiguous United States. It holds the record for the all-time lowest recorded temperature in any residential community, at −66 degrees Fahrenheit.”
Other temps in Montana:
Some of the coldest morning temperatures hit Butte and Belgrade, both falling to -45° below zero. Dillon, Helena, Ennis also note new record lows.
The all-time coldest temperature for Belgrade (Bozeman Yellowstone Airport) is -46° set in December of 1983 and January of 1957. The -45° record low today is the 2nd coldest temperature on record for Belgrade.
Dillon today is truly a historic cold temperature day. The low of -42° below zero is a new daily record low, a new January record low, and a new all-time record cold temperature. The old all-time record cold temperature was -37° December 24th, 1983, at the Dillon airport.“
This was a notable cold blast for sure. The state record was set back on
Jan. 20, 1954 -70F up on Rogers Pass. The worst winter I’ve endured
here in Mt was the winter of 1978-1979. It came in over Thanksgiving
weekend with a couple of feet of snow and went below zero and stayed
there for over 100 consecutive days, then in late February it went above
zero for a day then fell back below again. Lots of stories of frozen
water lines buried 6+ft deep that didn’t thaw till early July. I can remember
how warm it felt at -10F. Weeks of high temps being -30F ish. I made some
good side cash selling firewood that winter.
My dad was a Korean War veteran and trained and was stationed in Alaska,
before being deployed. Very tough cold and conditions, he seldom spoke of it.
I have a bag of his winter gear. He later bought a winter coveralls made in
Canada back in the 60’s which was the middle layer of a 3 layer suit, I broke
it out over during the last cold snap and wore it around the ranch and later down in
the valley, 100% prime goose down with a wolf fur trim on the collar, still like
new. I walked around with the zipper down for a while after moving hay…
There used to be a couple that raced sled dogs from Yellow Knife NW Territories that used to train in the valley I now live. They got tired of the long distance races and came down south to run the staged races so they didn’t have to overnite on the
trail. Danny Perino and his wife Ursula, they were friends with a caretaker on
a property below us, . They would bring down
3 teams, one to race and 2 to sell. I used to see his foot prints up the mountain
trail where he would run early in the morning up to the top with a couple of his dogs and see where he would stand on a big rock and watch the sun come up. The stride on his tracks in knee deep snow was impressive. They have since moved to British Columbia and I’ve lost track of them. No such thing as bad weather here, just bad
clothing.
Maybe we should only measure Montana and skip the global average temperature statistics?
Not only that, but the temperatures during cold snaps are becoming warmer.
You couldn’t prove that by this winter in my part of NC. Coldest we’ve had in a while (and I don’t mean 700 days)
He couldn’t prove it period! Coldest Arctic intrusion into the US since 1984 and likely to end up resulting in the highest NG draw in U.S. history.
Lots of scientific articles present data supporting it. The data in Figure 70 above is from:
Cohen, J., Screen, J.A., Furtado, J.C., Barlow, M., Whittleston, D., Coumou, D., Francis, J., Dethloff, K., Entekhabi, D., Overland, J. and Jones, J., 2014. Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather. Nature geoscience, 7(9), pp.627-637.
We all know Nature journals make lots of false claims on climate, but this one appears to be true, as it is supported by lots of evidence.
Kretschmer, M., Coumou, D., Agel, L., Barlow, M., Tziperman, E. and Cohen, J., 2018. More-persistent weak stratospheric polar vortex states linked to cold extremes. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 99(1), pp.49-60.
As I have stated previously, your problem is that you talk about things you don’t know.
And you pile on the BS
Your claim is science fraud and you can never be taken seriously on any climate issue again.
You are a science denier.
No single weather event can prove or disprove global warming. Many studies have shown that the number of extreme cold events is clearly decreasing with global warming, as predicted and understood from physical reasoning.
Winters in general are not colder, they are significantly warmer than in the 1970s. Here in SE Michigan. For the US and for the entire world, on average Antarctica may be an exception,
This is especially true for the Arctic and the northern half of the Northern Hemisphere
Throw your claptrap studies in the garbage can and just read the global temperature data.
According to Climate Central, there has been a trend in less extreme cold temperatures since 1970. In fact, since 1970, the lowest temperature each year has warmed nearly +12F since then. Sure, it can still get cold in winter, but the cold tends to be less intense and it tends not to be as prolonged as it was.
On average, winters are getting warmer and shorter, with fewer places experiencing extremely cold temperatures. However, because the warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, blizzards are more likely to occur and be more severe in places where temperatures are still cold enough for snow.
The coldest temperature in the U.S. was set in Alaska: The mercury plummeted to 80 degrees below zero on Jan. 23, 1971, in Prospect Creek in central Alaska, north of Fairbanks. The coldest temperature recorded in the contiguous U.S. is minus 70: That was measured at Rogers Pass, Montana, on Jan. 20, 1954
Apparently, that’s the only thing you read. You know very little of climate science and your opinion is worthless.
Anone who claims the past 48 years of global warming have caused “The increase in very cold NH winters this century” is delusional
And that would be you
Do you also think 48 years of global cooling would cause an increase of very warm NH winters?
That did not happen during the global cooling from 1940 to 1975.
You are living in climate delusion la la land
Richard,
Please stop trolling.
Do you prefer people lying about winters getting colder during the 48 years of global warming when they were actually getting warmer?
Short-term variability is important, Richard. The period from 1975 to 2024 is relatively brief in geological terms. As Javier points out, the data is inconsistent with persistent greenhouse forcing. Javier’s references show cooling from 1997 in North America and significant portions of Eurasia. Javier specifically focuses on studying natural climate change; he did not assert that the data showed cooling from 1975. It appears you become sensitive whenever someone mentions winter trends that deviate from the AGW narrative.
Richard … you have opinions and Javier has data – which shows global warming is slowing down. Even the USHCN observed maximum temperatures show a decreasing trend. Do not sell your snow shovel.
Binos has no reliable data to prove winters are fetting colder in the flobal warming era since 1975.
Numbers do not become data simply because you like them ,,, and opinions when you don’t like them
You don’t even read the information I present to you. Winters were getting warmer between 1976 and 1997, but since 1997 they have been getting colder in Eastern North America and Central and Eastern Eurasia.
People have noticed it, and scientists have noticed it. Only zealots with a closed mind refuse to accept the evidence because it contradicts their beliefs. But that is what science does all the time, it contradicts everybody’s beliefs.
What you have demonstrated here to everybody is not only your ignorance on this issue but that you only accept science when it supports your beliefs, so you are the farthest one can be from a scientist. The evidence, when properly collected, cannot be rejected. We can only discuss its interpretation.
Fortunately, the data shows that global warming and more CO2 are good for earth.
“Climate Central” has made some of the most ludicrous and unrealistic projections around.
They are heavily into the fakery of the 1.5C temperature rise disaster idiocy
They are also heavily into the utter fakery of climate attribution.
They are RABID CAGW NUTTERS.
Just the sort of scammers and zealots a non-scientist like dickie-boy would believe !!
I have referred to him as a lukewarmer before… I was wrong…
…. he is far more brain-washed in the AGW cult that that.
The fact that dick-boy cites them tells us exactly how much of a RABID AGW ANTI-SCIENCE CULTIST dickie-boy really is.
I refuted the false claim
“The increase in very cold NH winters this century surprised scientists”
The truth is the opposite — fewer very cold NH winters.
You bloviated about one data source, acting like a leftist denying a conservative source, but did absolutely nothing to refute my comment, as usual,
You are the Forrest Gump of WUWT
It surprised scientists because it started in the mid-1990s and is not reproduced by the models, so they did not know it was going to happen and they were predicting the opposite. They don’t even agree on the cause.
Cohen, J., Zhang, X., Francis, J., Jung, T., Kwok, R., Overland, J., Ballinger, T.J., Bhatt, U.S., Chen, H.W., Coumou, D. and Feldstein, S., 2020. Divergent consensuses on Arctic amplification influence on midlatitude severe winter weather. Nature Climate Change, 10(1), pp.20-29.
Yet the same happened in the 1920s-1930s period, so it is not CO2.
Chen, L., Francis, J. and Hanna, E., 2018. The “Warm‐Arctic/Cold‐continents” pattern during 1901–2010. International Journal of Climatology, 38(14), pp.5245-5254.
You sound like a science denier: “the truth is what I say, not what the science shows.” Lots of affirmationists are science deniers.
Why do you say “claptrap”? Speculation or based on facts?
Conclusions should be based on facts and data and can still be wrong
Speculation is just an opinion based on no data or questionable data.
Answer the question. Why did you say “claptrap” Is that a conclusion based on facts and if so what facts. Or is it speculation which is just your opinion.
You will have to specify where I said claptrap by cutting and pasting the relevant paragraph and I will then defend my statement
You can’t blame the polar vortex for going south.
The arctic is dark and cold during the winter
The polar bears can have their vortex back now.
The polar bears say screw this, so they hibernate
Your Winter Gatekeeper theory is working very well to explain what we are seeing. Many had problems with understanding how gravity can bend light (as many still do), but climate change is a long-term process and it will take many years for some realize the short and long-term effects of the sun.
Well, today the global warming is overwhelming with a temperature of -5C
Pity the poor EV driver….
Well, yes (part one) and no (part two)!
I had the aircon on 11….
Funny how these alarmists never provide any hard data to back up their fairy tales!
Well here’s some for Texas which destroys everything he claims:
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2024/01/19/texas-cold-weather-caused-by-global-warming-says-renewables-lobbyist/
Doug Lewis…
Stoic Energy LLC
https://stoicenergy.co.uk/
No conflict of interest…
Lewin
“Plainly there was nothing unprecedented about the 2021 (Texas) extreme cold”
Plainly, that statement is a lie.
The 2021 Texas winter storm caused a record low temperature at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport of −2 °F (−19 °C) on February 16, 2021, the coldest in North Texas in 72 years.
On his website the author was equally confused about the Texas 2021 blackout. It was caused by a natural gas supply shortage, not windmills, as he falsely claimed, along with many other conservatives.
The Dallas temperature charts he shows at his website now (at link) are also misleading
Dallas is not the whole state of Texas/
One maximum temperature chart truncates data to show only under 30 degrees F. That would cause a 5 degree F. high temperature day to be binned in the same “cold” category as a 29 degree F. high temperature day. Potentially very misleading/
Also:
The population of Dallas grew from 295,000 in 1940 to 6,574,000 in 2023, along with likely changes of weather station locations and equipment.
“natural gas supply shortage”
And why was there a shortage? No more NG is Texas?
Because gas production was temporarily stopped at some facilities due to wellhead freezing. It only takes a few days of halted production at some locations to disrupt the just in time delivery of gas in unusually cold Texas weather when gas demand peaks. Gas power production fell 25% when it was most needed.
This happened in Feb. 2022 and Feb. 2021
Gas production companies are not spending money to weatherize for such rare weather events. And Texas utilities refuse to build power plant on site gas tank storage so the problem is never fixed.
The lack of wind happens for an hour or more practically every week for a decade. No blackouts. Because low wind does not cause blackouts. Some natural gas backup power plants not at 100% of nameplate capacity due to a natural gas shortage causes Texas blackouts
If NG companies were encouraged instead of discourage by the feds, some states and the enviros- they’d invest to weatherize for such events.
Not in Texas
ERCOT cut power to some of the gas pipeline electric powered compressors and made the problem worse.
The gas power plants needed on site gas storage tanks
So ERCPT subsidized building windmills instead.
It was sent to Europe by idiot Biden, who has trouble tying his shoes
The electric pumps quit pumping the natural gas because the electricity was cut off to them.
But natural gas did work in most instances and is what pulled Texas back from the brink of a huge grid shutdown. Natural gas picked up the slack in electricity generation. Windmills produced almost nothing during the time, and there’s no way to ramp up windmills if the wind isn’t blowing or they are frozen, so they are completely useless in this situation.
Oklahoma, my State, at the time had about 220 windmills in operation. After the arctic cold front in 2021 came through, only 20 windmills were functioning. Some parts of Oklahoma were having brownouts. Not me, though, as there is a coal-fired power plant located about 20 miles from here and it was chugging right along despite the cold weather.
So, Greene is full of it. 🙂
Greenie-dick.. is following all the lies and misinformation of the AGW scammers.
He is one of them.
And you are just a chronic insulter with no science or engineering in any of your comments because of a lack of such knowledge
You have reached the ultimate leftist goal of knowing nothing about everything,
“Stop whining” — Christopher Monckton
David Middleton gave a good summation of events in an article at WUWT during the February 2021 arctic cold front aftermath.
Lots of charts showing what was producing electricity and what was not.
Windmills were not producing much electricity. And these windmill deficits were reported from Canada to Texas.
The arctic cold front pretty much shut down the windmills over a huge area.
Natural gas backs up windmills and solar power all the time EXCEPT twice in Texas in 2011 and 2021 when there was not enough just in time gas to meet temporary high demand.
You need to go read some history books and newspapers about the cold and blizzards that have raged through the plains before temperatures were recorded. Frozen cattle and frozen cowboys from North Dakota to mid-Texas. Are they occasional, perhaps, but far from unheard of.
To be honest, prairie fires are the same. They have happened since news was collected by settlers. They are not unusual.
Blaming climate change for natural occurrences is apathetic.
I don’t get average temperture data from history books
The world has been warming since the Little Ice Age centuries, so I assume winters are less harsh than they were in the 1690s.
Richard, why do you think the world has warmed since the end of the Little Ice Age? You seem to dismiss solar influences.
Almost 100% natural warming since the 1690s and probably mainly manmade influences after 1940.
Top of the atmosphere solar energy has not increased since the 1970s so can not be blamed for the post 1975 warming
Sunspot counts are not accurate measurements of TOA solar energy
More sunlight reaches the ground due to fewer SO2 emissions since 1980
The change in cloudiness is the big unknown factor
More clouds in the day = global cooling
More clouds at night
= global warming
You know what is said about the word ass•u•me? I didn’t say that winters weren’t getting less harsh, although I am old enough to know that some weather is cyclic and making predictions is perilous.
It still holds that blizzards and fires have occurred in North America long before GHG’s became the boogey man. They are not the proof of anything.
Ignorance of history is your only fall-back for supporting the AGW scam, isn’t it dickie-boy.
Ignorance is your middle name
Speaking of fires, last Summer the news was reporting on all the fires in Canada, blaming them on Global Warming. It was recently announced that the police arrested a guy and charged him for starting 14 of the fires.
They also arrested a ring of arsonists in Greece for setting the fires they had last year.
““Plainly there was nothing unprecedented about the 2021 (Texas) extreme cold”
Plainly, that statement is a lie.
The 2021 Texas winter storm caused a record low temperature at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport of −2 °F (−19 °C) on February 16, 2021, the coldest in North Texas in 72 years.”
So you say it was as cold or colder 72 or more, years ago. So Paul Homewood is correct, the 2021 cold was not unprecedented, as it was as cold or colder in the past. According to your own statement.
So Paul Homewood did not lie. You should apologize.
Stopping at 72 years is cherry picking. The coldest in Texas was -23F in 1933 per NOAA. So there is “nothing unprecedented about 2021(Texas) extreme cold”.
I did not say Texas .
I said the Dallas airport
The current airport opened in January 1974. I do not know the earlier locations of a Dallas weather stations. But I know 72 years before 2021 was 1949
Dallas was just as cold in1949
After 46 years of global warming (1975 to 2021) I’d say that 2021 cold weather even i Texas was at least unexpected and at most unprecedented.
The record low in Dallas was
-8 degrees F. February 12, 1899
Population 43,000
-2 degrees F. February 16, 2021
Population 1.3 million
Looking at the entire state is much more meaningful than a specific location.
Homewood presented Dallas charts in his article. I criticized the use of Dallas to represent the whole state of Texas.
It was caused by a natural gas supply shortage, “
UTTER BS !!!!!
Gas ramped up by some 65% to cover for all the missing wind and solar.
Then the greenie idiocy of using electric powered pumps cause a drop in supply.
Why are you repeating all the MANIC LIES of the AGW cult.
Is it because you are actually one of them ????
Natural gas supplies did not reach all the power plants that needed natural gas
That happened in 201 with very few windmills and natural gas compressors used for gas pipelines
It happened again in 2-21 with lpts of windmills and electric compressors on the gas pipelines.
There is simply not enough just in time natural gas for all the power plants and all the home. offices, business furnaces and stoves
That’s what happened in 2011
In 2021 the cold weather was colder and it lasted longer than in
2011
There was not enough gas to meet 100% of demand .The electric compressors om gas lines made the problems worse
During the February 2021 winter storm, transmission companies inadvertently cut power to parts of the natural gas supply chain when ERCOT ordered the utilities to reduce power demand or risk further damage to the grid. That decision aggravated the problem as natural gas producers were unable to deliver what fuel they had ro all power plants. At the same time, many wells were unable to produce as much natural gas due to the freezing conditions.
Texas population in 2021
29.5 million
4.5 million affected by blackout
I do not believe Texas utilities have a way to cut electricity demand without affecting some of the gas infrastructure
Estimate of how much worse the electric compressor problem made the 2021 Texas blackout
More than 9,000 megawatts of power outages were caused by power plants not getting enough gas, enough to power 1.8 million Texas homes and accounting for at least 20% of the total outages during the week of the storm, according to ERCOT’s estimate.
bNasty2000
I tried to explain this in simple language that a 12 year old child could understand. Go out and find a 12 year old child to explain it to you.
CORRECTION
6,574,000 was the whole Dallas Fort Worth region population
Dallas itself was 1.3 million people in 2021
Give Mr. Bradley credit for trying to debate leftists on climate and energy. He has written many columns on the subject. They keep me informed on leftist thinking (aka BS), assuming leftist and thinking are words that should be used in the same sentence.
Cold weather is an indicator of global warming effects on SE Michigan where I live. The past week was very cold. Slightly below 0 degrees F, on some nights. But not as cold as the coldest winter weeks in the 1970s and 1980s.And we have had a lot less snow in the current and past two winters, compared with those decades. And no summer warming trend. Warmer winters with no obvious summer warming would be a symptom of an increased greenhouse effect.
DEBATING A LEFYIST Exhibit A
Wealthy couple. Thet travel the world for fun. Own a very profitable medium sized business
Wife runs the business and husband is an MIT engineering graduate.
The subject of Covid comes up at dinner in our home. I announce its too bad masks don’t work. She objects. Claims she wears masks to protect others, not to protect herself. I am puzzled — never heard that before.
I ask if she means masks filter Covid germs when she breathes out but not when she breathed in
That is exactly what she meant.
I joke that when she is in an airplane, she should wear her mask inside out to protect herself, because who cares about a plane load of strangers. She didn’t get the joke.
I told her I read five scientific studies of N95 masks in 2020 and she dismissed my conclusions as “confirmation bias”. Even though I had no prior opinion on masks, and selected the studies online at random. The conversation was ended with me being accused of confirmation bias. That is the longest “debate” possible with leftists.
If you were a leftist who believed leftist claptrap, would you debate a conservative?
Was one of those studies the CDC’s RESPECT study? That one took place across several years in the 2010’s, in several locations in the USA, with around 3,000 participants.
Conducted prior to the advent of SARS CoV-2, its intent was to study the efficacy of common surgical masks and N95 masks VS influenza. From what I read, the result was at best a 7% reduction in influenza with N95 masks. There was a page, which I have not been able to re-find (no surprise!), that detailed everything detected in the nasal swabs collected from the outpatient healthcare workers who participated in the study.
Not only was influenza virus found but also a plethora of other viruses, bacteria, dust, pollens and other stuff.
When I was in the local ER a couple of years ago with a strep throat infection (my first time with that, at age 50!) I remarked to the ER doc that these surgical masks were as good at keeping out viruses as a chain link fence is at keeping out mosquitos. He just looked at me and gave me a very firm affirmative nod. He couldn’t verbally agree because it likely would have cost him his job.
“Warmer winters with no obvious summer warming would be a symptom of an increased greenhouse effect.”
Is that how science decides? Look for symptoms? No logic needed?
I stated an observed fact.
It is an expected symptom of greenhouse warming
It does not prove anything
I have a theory that it is impossible to prove anything … But I can’t prove it
Your observed fact is the warming- you don’t have an observed fact that it’s due to the supposed greenhouse effect.
It may be “an observation” but saying “fact” is not warranted because you don’t know it’s a fact.
First true statement you have made.
That’s why we have ‘science’ . Science assumes – but cannot prove – that some things ’cause’ other things in predictable ways. The sun comes up. The day gets warmer. It always has in the past…so we assume it always will…This is called ‘inductive logic’.
We can’t prove it though.
But, as the great philosopher of science Karl Popper pointed out, if its an accurate enough prediction, we can test it and potentially disprove it. What is left out of all the disprovable theories than haven’t been disproved, is called science.
A theory that says ‘CO2 might make things warmer, or might make things colder’ is not science. It’s utter bunk.
There is actually no evidence that increased atmospheric CO2 has any affect whatsoever.
To science deniers like you and village idiots. I repeat myself.
There is no greenhouse warming so no symptom. CO2 has no measureable effect on climate change.
Greenhouse denier
You have no evidence that CO2 affects climate change which makes your assertion, in your words, “claptrap”.
prove it then.
Prove it is the response of a child who will reject all evidence no matter how much is presented.
prove it Richard. Stop blabbering.
Ollie said “measurable effect” which doesn’t contradict the fact that CO2 is a greenhouse gas.
Ollie doesn’t appear to be denying anything, he is saying the greenhouse effect of CO2 on the atmosphere is so small that it cannot be measured.
I agree with Ollie. CO2 is a greenhouse gas, and its effect on the Earth’s atmosphere is so small as to be unmeasurable, so should not be of concern to humans.
Assuming CO2 is causing any of the warmth since the 1970’s is pure speculation, unsupported by any facts. Similar periods in the past have warmed with the same magnitude of the current warming, after the Little Ice Age ended in 1850, and temperatures climbed at the same magnitude as today into the 1880’s, and then the temperatures increased at the same magnitude as today from the 1910’s to the 1930’s. Mother Nature was in charge in the 1880’s and 1930’s, before CO2 became an issue, and after it became an issue, the current warming still has not exceeded the magnitude of the warmings cause by Mother Nature in the past, so it is logical to assume, until proven otherwise, that the current warming is also due to Mother Nature. That’s my position.
There is way too much assuming going on when it comes to Human-caused Climate Change. In fact, alarmist climate science is made up entirely of speculation and unsubstantiated assumptions.
Climate alarmists are just guessing about CO2 and its affects on the Earth’s atmosphere,and none of their predictions pan out. Don’t mistake unsubstantiated assumptions for facts.
FALSE attribution.. based on scientific ignorance.
Very much a AGW cultist thing.
10F on my porch in Woodstock, Vermont, this morning
Far cry from what I experienced in Woodstock in 1968.
I don’t agree with your science but every Woodstock I’ve visited was a great town .. in New York and Vermont
“ a leftist who believed leftist claptrap”
Look in the mirror, dickie-boy… I’m sure you do it all the time.
to admire yourself…. not to “see” yourself.
The conservative articles I recommend every day are listed on my blog, with over 695,000 lifetime page views.
Calling me a leftist just shows you are wrong about EVERYTHING
The Honest Climate Science and Energy Blog
Doug’s brain is progressively addling. Winter storms appear to be increasingly common. There must be a connection.
Note that he is citing a NWS “expert”. This is the real problem.
Monique Sellers of the National Weather Service talked with the Dallas Morning News about the connection to climate change. “Climate change plays a role, Sellers said. The average winter temperature in Texas is rising. But conditions are also more volatile, with intense, short-term freezes increasing in likelihood each year.”
“‘One of the confounding conundrums of climate change is that winter has become warmer, but we have more deep freezes,’ Sellers said.”
““Climate change plays a role, Sellers said.”
Sellers couldn’t prove that if Seller’s life depended on doing so. There is no established connection between CO2 and any weather or climate event. None. So how does Sellers speak with such confidence?
From the article: “A few days ago, when the forecasts for Jan. 15 were still at or near freezing, I started feeling like we’ve seen this movie before: warnings of a weakening polar vortex, steadily worsening forecasts each day … This is what happened in February 2021 and December 2022. And it’s happening again.
These severe storms did not used to be so common. But this will be the third time in four winters that one has hit Texas. This underscores the growing body of data that suggests climate change is fueling Arctic warming, which weakens the polar vortex (a jet stream-like air current 10-30 miles above the Earth) allowing Arctic blasts and exceptionally low temperatures into the continental US.”
It happens every year. You obviosly haven’t been paying attention. And if the Polar Vortex has anything to do with it, it has been happening for longer than CO2 has been an issue, so there is no connection between CO2 amounts in the atmosphere and what the Polar Vortex does.
There is nothing unusual about arctic air sinking down towards the equator. It happens all the time during the cold parts of the year. The arctic air gets cold and heavier and sinks to the south (in the northern hemisphere).
January 15 is the coldest part of the year in the northern hemisphere, so it should be no surprise that there is cold arctic air circulating around.
Climate alarmists try to make something out of nothing all the time. This is another case of that.
Here’s how Nullschool sees it:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2024/01/19/1200Z/wind/isobaric/500hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-103.65,30.94,264
The United States is getting arctic air in the central and northeast portions, but to the west, Pacific air is coming in behind the arctic front and is going to warm us up in the coming days.
And don’t be surprised if sometime in the near future we don’t see another excursion of cold arctic air coming into the United States. That happens all the time, too.
The writer is writing about Texas, so maybe I’m being too hard on him, as many of these arctic fronts don’t always reach very deep into Texas, but those north of Texas get hit with this kind of weather every year, so should be familiar with it. It’s business as usual. Nothing out of the ordinary to see here.
If Joe Bastardi has it right, we’re going to get a major replay of this Arctic blast sometime after the 10th of Feb. It will come in further east this time and keep things colder than normal in the east right into March.
The timing sounds about right to me. I hope Joe is right about the arctic air coming into the U.S. farther east than the current one. Maybe I’ll miss the brunt of it. 🙂
A former head of the UNIPCC a stated in a speech that the real goal of the environmental movement is the destruction of capitalism- as Rush said – all just a bunch of watermelons- green on the outside but red inside
Wasn’t the “climate change disrupts the polar vortex” hypothesis discredited years ago by the very same Scandinavian team that initiated the study to begin with???
In winter there is a large drop in the height of the tropopause, over the Arctic Circle on average about 6 km. Therefore, stratospheric intrusions and extreme cold can occur each winter. North America is particularly at risk because in recent years there has been a strong excess of ozone over eastern Siberia, and the ozone patch moves over Canada during the winter. Ozone falling into the troposphere creates waves that displace water vapor from the troposphere, and this dry air is transparent to solar radiation.
Typically some place or places in the mid latitudes of the northern temperate zone will see an incursion of a polar air mass in 30-45 days after a stratospheric warming event over the Arctic.
However, the SSW begins with the accumulation of ozone over eastern Siberia, which causes a blockage of circulation in the polar vortex and the consequent breakdown of the polar vortex.
so you think that the high pressure that occurs in the troposphere due to the strat warming has nothing to do with disrupting the vortex
Of course it affects the pressure over the Arctic Circle. Ozone is a heavy gas with a high molecular weight.
The gift that keeps on giving to climate realists!
https://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/business/joseph-vazquez/2024/01/19/contradiction-ap-cries-climate-change-over-us-deep-freeze
No one has determined what affects the circulation in the stratosphere, where the amount of water vapor is negligible. So far it has been established that the QBO affects the polar vortex. In my opinion, the strength of the solar wind also plays a role. I believe that both the strength of the solar wind magnetic field and the geomagnetic field in the north are important.
https://www.geomag.nrcan.gc.ca/mag_fld/arctics-en.php
Yet all the circulation models predict milder winters and fewer mid latitude cold extremes with rising CO2 forcing, through increasingly positive Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillation conditions. And moreover, increasingly positive AO/NAO conditions can only drive a colder AMO and a colder Arctic.
https://archive.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch10s10-3-5-6.html
Currently, the polar vortex in the lower stratosphere will strengthen over the Atlantic, allowing a low to form over Iceland and bring rainfall to Europe.
