By P Gosselin
We keep hearing how we’re all supposed to believe in models – even those of highly complex, poorly understood systems like weather and climate. Yet, their outputs keep changing.
Hat-tip Snowfan here.
Back on December 22, last year, the National Weather Service (NWS) forecast a warmer than normal February 2024:
But it has since turned out that their models for Europe weren’t working out very well.
Now what follows is the latest, made 2 days ago, on January 11, 2024:
All of Europe’s earlier projected February forecast mean temperature have been cooled down. Now it looks like February will be near normal. So does that mean we’ll be holding off on those spring projects? The answer is of course is nobody knows. These seasonal forecasts change like a windshield wiper.
Why do these forecasts often turn out wrong? It’s because forecasters understand very little about the complex system of weather and so the models are improperly set, and thus still have a very long way to go before they can be deemed as useful.
What about the times when the National Weather Service is right? The truth is that they were lucky. After all, there’s a 33% chance of being right just by sheer guessing. You can only choose between warmer-than-normal, colder-than-normal, or near normal.
And what about the climate models? these are even more complex, and the climate system is still very poorly understood – despite what the gravy train scientists claim. Climate models do a very poor job at predicting what a region will be like in 30 years.
However, they do one thing pretty well: putting out doomsday scenarios and creating fear.
One of the few jobs where you are paid to be wrong three times a day.
(Apologies to Anthony!)
As I have said before, any forecast outside 3 ( well these days maybe 4 ) hours away is an educated guess.
Some people are better at guessing than others, though.
Experience helps, as does the ability to ignore what the models tell you in favour of what has happened before. Unfortunately most weather services these days are staffed by inexperienced computer experts who believe what their flawed models put out.
But when the model forecasts are consistently biased towards it being warmer than it turns out and seem never to be adjusted to be more accurate, then there is a systemic problem that leads back to the input of the programmers.
The first long range weather model to pick up on the current Arctic blast in the lower 48 was the JMA. Followed a couple weeks later by the Canadian. All the others didn’t see it coming until it was obvious it was going to happen.
And promoted with lifetime tenure
Here in the States, the Climate Prediction Center did NOT foresee the Pleistocene weather that the US is experiencing right now…
The soothsayers need a new crystal ball.
Story tip
Allam-Fetvedt cycle sCO2 power generation.
Natural gas fired electrical generation with net zero emissions at efficiency approaching existing combined cycle generation.
Uses CO2 as working fluid. Megawatt sized plant completed in Texas in commissioning phase. Smaller scale plant already proven.
“Approaching”, lots of wiggle room in that word.
Natural Gas Fired + Net Zero emissions = Bullshit
I don’t care much about the efficiency claim, what I want to know is KWH output to BTU input compared to a typical natural gas CC generating plant.
Do you have THAT information?
For example, modern gasoline engines in American cars MUST meet EPA Standards, and thus lose efficiency AND HP. How much less barrels of gasoline and diesel would be required to supply US transportation needs if the EPA and their regulations were eliminated?
I had a car that was built in an in between regulatory period where to meet “tailpipe emissions” regulations, they just pumped air into the exhaust. So a parasitic drag to MPG was, and to this day still is, the result of current “tailpipe emissions” requirements. Get the EPA off the backs of the automakers and MPG across the total range of ICE vehicles will go UP, and because of ever more efficient use of fuel, the emissions will be ever LESS because a higher % will be burned and 0% wasted to meet the regulations.
I have a diesel and when registered in LV, NV, valley I was required to do a dyno emissions test EVERY YEAR. Now registered in rural Utah, no emissions test required. Get great milage, but I have the added EPA expense of DEF, something that, even IF it helps “smog”, would only be beneficial in a couple areas of the country where inversions or wind patterns hold vehicle exhaust in somewhat confined areas. SO 95% of the miles driven by diesel vehicles would be of no consequence, BUT 100% of new vehicles are required to waste the money and MPG on DEF.
If a diesel owner does not get out and run for some distance at highway speeds, their exhaust system will require a regeneration that runs the engine at high speeds to burn out the particulate filter. While still at LVFR, the engineers of newer fire engines or trucks would need to sit their truck out once every couple of weeks to do the regeneration since they never ran at speed for long enough to clear the exhaust. Thus a waste of fuel and an added expense for the particulate filter, etc.
ELIMINATE THE EPA, new Republican congress and POTUS, prove the Democrats right, they have been claiming that is what you want to do, so do it. Then when everyone sees the monetary savings in the cost of fuel and the lower cost of a car after disallowing California or any other state to control tailpipe emissions.
Big tide + cold weather proof the gods are angry and a bigger sacrifice is required.
No joke, this pattern of human behavior has been with us for thousands of years, until the high priests are thrown down.
Woke folks are volunteering by the thousands?
100% guaranteed.
Seen those in a lot of places now – it’s really caught on.
Taking, predicting or giving meaning to the average of a ball in a pinball machine and comparing it to history is pointless – only Pointless People would see any value in doing so.
>>The weather is going to be cold – much colder that it should be because there is no moisture there. The water was all sucked out of the place during last summer, and the summer before, and the one before that and on and on and on.
(Right back to King Henry 8thbeing instrumental via his (less than) heroic campaign of deforestation.
Take note: Anyone with anything to do with Drax or Biomass)
Any rain that fell raced off the land so fast it barely touched the ground. Yes it registered in rain gauges and made an average, but it was useless rain for the things that count.
The place is a desert and deserts have the weather of pinball machines.
Pinball is a ‘high pressure’ game
Attached is the data for February ’23 for a place near Clermont Ferrand in central France
45° north and 180metres AMSL
Barometric (lower black curve) above 1015mb for 3 weeks out of 4
Little spikes of ‘rain’ that were probably snow and an average monthly temp of 5.7°C – colder than I was in Norfolk (6.2°C) at the same time, 500miles north – and – under a similar cyclonic regime.
See the wind = ‘all over the place‘
It should be prevailing from the west, importing warm (not hot) air and water-vapour off the Atlantic to make (liquid) water precipitation, thus adding heat into the ground.
While lowering the barometer to less than 1010mb on average.
But no, random winds, a lot of the time from the north and east (both cold & dry directions) carrying heat (and moisture) away into the Med (Mistral wind) and the Atlantic.
>>Properly analyse what you’ve got *now* – realise what is causing it and *then* you may be able to guess which bumper the pinball will bounce off next….
Endlessly telling people that they are wrong wrong wrong and wrong again, while they dither and bluster, will only make their self-inflicted paranoia worse and not get anyone anywhere. It will harden their position while normalising the advancing desert.
and ffs, forget about CO₂ while you’re about it
Weather and climate are intrinsically unpredictable. The math is clear on this.
https://www.cfact.org/2023/02/10/the-math-of-chaos-why-weather-and-climate-are-unpredictable/
The weather systems are unstable so small changes can result in big changes.
True enough but chaos is a mathematical property so what the system does is sensitive to infinitesimal differences. It is not small changes rather undetectible differences in initial conditions.
The geological climates are fairly predictable since they depend on things like distance from the equator, mountain ranges, prevailing winds, water sources, and so forth that don’t change easily.
The new 30-year “climate” can vary a great deal since it is basically just 30 years of weather.
Most models have nothing to do with reality especially does with legs that make you think You are outside the normal.
It’s far worse than that. It’s not only because the models have insufficient data both in accuracy and in quantity, but that climate is a fully chaotic dynamic system, which means that even if they had all the data 100 times more accurate and geographically detailed, one burning electric bus could perturb the system into an entirely different trajectory from what it would otherwise have been.
Even if the model was based on entirely understood meteorology.
I think this is a point that many people here fail to recognise: its not that the models are currently crap, its that they cannot actually be made usefully effective at all, ever.
I.e. weather, like climate, is practically impossible [completely impossible for practical reasons, not ‘almost impossible’] to predict for any length of time beyond a few days. At least with digital computers.
All we know is the gross energy balances that dominate the negative feedback loops of climate.
That if the planet got too hot the fourth power non linearity of radiation would massively limit the rise, and likewise the latent heat of freezing means that the oceans will always keep things reasonably warm.
This however establishes quite high bounds of potential weather and climate and does not e.g. prevent Moscow from freezing whilst Manchester is moderately tepid (+4°C) (39°F?) for the time of year.
Despite being on similar latitudes
Now we have a Grand Solar Minimum starting. The last one was about 400 years ago in the Little Ice Age and that led to famines and millions of deaths in a much smaller population.
Even NOAA is forecasting the Sunspot Number, which reflects solar output, to start dropping and continue dropping until at least 2040 when their forecast ends. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/predicted-sunspot-number-and-radio-flux
What is the scientific definition of a “Grand Solar Minimum”?
The N in NOAA stands for national
So why are they doing European weather forecasts?
And why do they do monthly weather forecasts which are as accurate as flipping a coin?
Why do they do any weather forecasts? Weather is local and there are plenty of local weather forecasts that are accurate for at least a few days.
You wany a forecast for the next month?
Here it is, for free:
February is part of winter
Winter is cold
It may be colder than usual,
or less cold than usual
Now get on with your life,
Humans lived on this planet for two million years with a constantly changing climate. They managed to survive without local weather forecasts most of the time. Unti the 1970s no one cared about the climate in 100 years. Which will be warmer than today, unless it is colder.
NOAA is comprised of six distinct divisions known as “line offices.” These are the National Weather Service, National Ocean Service, NOAA Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA Marine and Aviation Operations, Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, and National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service.
By the way, Michael Mann has a new chart that will be released to teh public in a few weeks
This one is shaped like a cricket bat
Historical temperatures for the past 64,000 years
Derived from the best climate proxies ever discovered — better than the hockey stick proxies: Paintings on cave walls
Mann’s chart is coming soon
He has already revealed this new fact:
“Those Neanderthals were smarter than they looked”. Mann is anticipating another Nobel Prize.
I wonder if the Neanderthals used fahrenheiht or centigrade?
Both
The N in NOAA stands for national
So why are they doing European weather forecasts?
Several reasons:
Nope. Military has their own weather people. My brother was one. NOAA not needed.
Nope. Future contracts already predict that.
Yep.
Yep.
Yep.
Yep.
BTW, as to the NS pipeline. TRUMP! tried to stop the NS 2 through “diplomatic” means.
Are you saying that the Democrats, who were all for the project, are the ones who blew it up??
If you have any actual information about who actually did the deed, I would love to see it. It is amazing that no one has claimed credit of been shown to be responsible.
No idea. The German investigators are still chasing the yacht evidence, seem to have ruled out the Russian ship theory and the published story about the US having done it has been ripped to shreds – the details are all very wrong. The ‘Ukrainian sabotage team’ idea might have a bit more traction, given the bombings of Darya Dugina and the Kerch bridge attacks, as well as the evidence left on the ‘Andromeda’ yacht. Aside from that the investigation is ‘still ongoing’ and likely to be for some time yet.
The models forecast the whole world at once since it is all interconnected anyway.
“Now it looks like February will be near normal.”
The word “normal” should never be used by weathermen or climate “scientists”.
Who cares. They have already reaped the benefit of a hot forecast plastered all over the media. No-one will notice the normal February once the hot March forecast is on the front page. This thing goes for ever, and it only ever goes one way.
During the Obama presidency Rush would cover the economic GROWTH numbers that were provided by the government, but he would especially cover the revisions of the % growth which, every month, for YEARS were revised down, but the MSM never covered the revisions, just the original great GDP growth press release.
Same same, propaganda always to the benefit of the left, propagated by the MSM.
Yes they mean average weather which is rare not normal. Weather is normally far from average because it is chaotic.
Unless you consider another Arctic Blast “normal”, then they’re wrong. Were most likely in for a period of warm up in a week or so. But as I write this there is another episode of stratospheric warming occurring. In about 35 days it is likely many will see temps in the East even colder than they’re going to have this time around because there will be more snow on the ground and colder temperatures to begin with!
At least that is what Joe Bastardi is saying and he correctly called the current blast we’re experiencing back in late November.
The good news is that they are now forecasting that just about the whole of Scotland will have a warmer than normal February. But will it turn out to be correct?
There is a big blob of cold arctic air over most of Europe, but it looks like Scotland and the UK are right on the western edge of the cold air. There is also a big blob of cold arctic air over the United States right now.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2024/01/14/1400Z/wind/isobaric/500hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-0.81,58.93,264
And it looks like Japan and the Koreas are in for more cold arctic air.
It is the middle of January in the northern hemisphere, which is right in the middle of winter and it is supposed to be cold like this at around this time of year. The penetration of the cold arctic air is not as deep into the United States this year as it was in the February 2021 arctic cold front that penetrated all the way into the Gulf of Mexico and caused such havoc in Texas and other States.
In 2019 we were coming back from the east coast via I 80. We stopped in Elkhart Indiana to travel north to a breeder in Michigan to pick up our Airedale puppy on October 28th.
We also picked up a second puppy to deliver to another lady. We were going to meet her at the Salt Lake airport for the handoff, after visiting out son in Casper WY.
Well, weather had a different idea. A massive cold front came barreling out of Canada with projected temperatures in the teens and lower, and our new 5th wheel is not really meant for that cold a temperature, so we rerouted SOUTH.
The lady was in Santa Fe NM and we planned to met her in Albuquerque. The drive from Elkhart to there was TERRIBLE. It rained (I mean POURED for miles and miles) from there to Miami, Oklahoma, where we parked at a Walmart overnight. The the next morning we headed to Santa Rose NM where we stopped overnight. On the way we passed through miles of glittering Texas desert on icy interstate, all due to the freeing rain. Overnight in Santa Rosa, it got down to single digit F temperatures. This was the 1st of November.
When we got to Albuquerque to do the handoff the lady wanted to see inside the 5th wheel, but I could not unlock the door. The lock was frozen. Went into the Home Depot and got some solvent that I now keep in the trailer, to clear the lock.
SO even in the fall, COLD weather happens.
Yes, those excursions of arctic air can occur as early as that. I ran into two different blizzards in the Oklahoma panhandle in November in the past, while traveling Interstate 40 to California. Even late into the late winter/early spring there can be arctic air coming in. When it comes in the early spring, we can get lots of snow.
This particular current arctic air excursion into the U.S. won’t be the last this year.
It’s pretty darn cold in my little piece of Texas, and what is most unusual is that the temp went below freezing about 10:00 PM last night (Sat), and the forecast is for it to remain below freezing until sometime weds. Don’t know what is happening along the gulf or in the valley, and too cold to care. but I live here because the cold doesn’t usually last more than a day before warm up. 4 days is just extreme as far as this old man is concerned. I’ve already broken the ice up on the water trough in the goat pen 3 times, and it is just 10:00 AM and will need to take an ax down to the pond in a little while to make sure the cattle can access a drink. I hate winter.
“I hate winter.”
I’m with you. 🙂
Climate scientists will always tell you that climate is not chaotic. However, of course, weather is; and they can’t argue with that. They attempt to get around this problem with weather using all sorts of jiggery pokery, but as the evidence always reveals, with relatively little success.
Einstein famously said that “God does not play dice” when, of course, we now know that God does (let’s not get into any tangential discussions about whether God exists or not. I don’t but respect those who do).
Ultimately, this means it it’s highly unlikely that weather forecasting will EVER be accurate beyond one or two weeks at the very best, regardless of the computer power available.
Wouldn’t the Younger Dryas show that CLIMATE IS CHAOTIC?
Of course that would require climate pseudo-scientists to look farther back than the Industrial Revolution and man’s influence of CO2 levels, wouldn’t it?
Chaos theory came out of studies into climate.
Climate enthuaiasts can only think in straight lines, I thought we’d already established that. They are just uppity computer programmers and computer programs are organised into neat, straightforward logic chains – that’s all they know how to do.
The climate models are just being tested over the next 30-year climate period.
The IPCC said they did hindcasting but forecasting the past is always easier than forecasting the future.
The climate forecasting system may or may not work, they are untested as of now.
Considering that the models didn’t include the Sun’s variability, the clouds that reflect a large amount of energy into space, or the oceans that move large quantities of heat around the Earth, they probably don’t work.
I wish there was something we could do for meteorologists and weathermen that haven’t drank the CAGW koolaid but must repeat the dogma required of them.
I’m happy to say that none of my local meterologists, from the four local channels I watch, ever refer to human-caused climate change.
It is such a blessing not to have to put up with climate change propaganda. Just the weather forecast, please. And that’s what we get.
We love our common-sense meteorologists! They stick to the facts and don’t go off on flights of fancy about CO2.
That is not a National Weather Service forecast. NWS does not even forecast Canada or Mexico. Someone used the NWS GFS model to forecast in Europe. The only climate forecasts NWS shares are here. No, I’m not a NOAA, or NWS employee, but I have worked with them to build weather satellites and forecasting systems. NWS forecasters use GFS, and many other models, along with their own grey matter, to forecast.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/OUTLOOKS_index.php
Uh, NWS CMF weather models are known for inaccuracy and reviled throughout the globe.
Especially, their long range models and forecasts that NWS revises until the hour the weather arrives.
Sometimes, NWS comes close on tomorrow’s weather. Sometimes.