The Week That Was: 2023-12-16 (December 16, 2023)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “I apologize for writing such a long letter, but I didn’t have time to write a short one.” – Mark Twain
Number of the Week: 59 degrees F
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: The major issue discussed this week is COP 28, and comments made about it. AMO physicist Howard Hayden brings up how the IPCC defines human-caused climate change. Stephen McIntyre relates his experience as an expert reviewer of a past IPCC assessment report. Further, the role of Washington’s delegation is presented. Energy analysist Roger Caiazza discusses the importance of reliable, affordable electricity to high-tech industries.
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COP 28: The 28th annual Conference of Parties for the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is over. This is also called “Conference of the Parties” serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement. TWTW reviewed a number of comments on it without citing the final agreement. UK commentator David Turver cited a portion of the final agreement, prompting TWTW to search further. Article II of the final agreement begins: [Boldface added throughout]
“Collective progress towards achieving the purpose and long-term goals of the Paris Agreement, including under Article 2, paragraph 1(a–c), in the light of equity and the best available science, and informing Parties in updating and enhancing, in a nationally determined manner, action and support.”
As former participant Richard Lindzen and others have stated, the IPCC process quickly departs from the best available science and its Summaries for Policymakers and Synthesis Reports are politically contrived reports, which may be contradicted by the best available physical evidence and best available science. In the Final Report, the paragraphs are numbered, which TWTW follows.
Section A, titled Mitigation starts:
18. Acknowledges that significant collective progress towards the Paris Agreement
temperature goal has been made, from an expected global temperature increase of 4 °C according to some projections prior to the adoption of the Agreement to an increase in the
range of 2.1–2.8 °C with the full implementation of the latest nationally determined contributions;
The increase of 4 °C is not based on physical evidence but is a number contrived by global climate modelers based on an ensemble of models, none of which stand up to basic testing using atmospheric physical evidence. Paragraph 26 states:
26. Recognizes the finding in the Synthesis Report of the Sixth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, based on global modelled pathways and assumptions, that global greenhouse gas emissions are projected to peak between 2020 and at the latest before 2025 in global modelled pathways that limit warming to 1.5 °C with no or limited overshoot and in those that limit warming to 2 °C and assume immediate action, and notes that this does not imply peaking in all countries within this time frame, and that time frames for peaking may be shaped by sustainable development, poverty eradication needs and equity and be in line with different national circumstances, and recognizes that technology development and transfer on voluntary and mutually agreed terms, as well as capacity-building and financing, can support countries in this regard;
As discussed in previous TWTWs, the Synthesis Report of the Sixth Assessment Report is a travesty and it departs significantly from the Physical Science report, including adding a totally unrealistic assumption of future carbon dioxide emissions. Paragraphs 27, 28, and the first section of 29 state:
“27. Also recognizes that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C with no or limited overshoot requires deep, rapid and sustained reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions of 43 per cent by 2030 and 60 per cent by 2035 relative to the 2019 level and reaching net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050.
28. Further recognizes the need for deep, rapid and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in line with 1.5 °C pathways and calls on Parties to contribute to the following global efforts, in a nationally determined manner, taking into account the Paris Agreement and their different national circumstances, pathways and approaches:
(a) Tripling renewable energy capacity globally and doubling the global average
annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030;
(b) Accelerating efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power;
(c) Accelerating efforts globally towards net zero emission energy systems, utilizing zero- and low-carbon fuels well before or by around mid-century.
(d) Transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science;
(e) Accelerating zero- and low-emission technologies, including, inter alia, renewables, nuclear, abatement and removal technologies such as carbon capture and utilization and storage, particularly in hard-to-abate sectors, and low-carbon hydrogen production;
(g) Accelerating the reduction of emissions from road transport on a range of pathways, including through development of infrastructure and rapid deployment of zero and low-emission vehicles;
(h) Phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that do not address energy poverty or just transitions, as soon as possible;
29. Recognizes that transitional fuels can play a role in facilitating the energy transition while ensuring energy security;”
Particularly interesting are the goals of doubling the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030 and accelerating and substantially reducing non-carbon-dioxide emissions globally, especially methane emissions. Energy efficiency has been important, particularly since the Arab oil embargo. The UN does not state how nations will accomplish this. When efficiency is very low, it is easy to find improvements to improve efficiency, but when efficiency is already high, it is very hard to improve it even incrementally. Home heating was vastly improved with the Franklin stove, but how do you double the rate of energy efficiency improvements of furnaces that are already 90% efficient?
Methane comes from the oil and gas industries and from livestock. So, the UN intends to destroy these industries. On paper, nitrous oxide from artificial fertilizer is as significant a greenhouse gas as methane, though in the real atmosphere both are insignificant. So, it appears that the UN wishes to abolish modern agriculture. Further, consumers are objecting to zero- and low-emission vehicles as the costs rise. The UN opposes the flexibility that private vehicles give citizens? [In the US, we use only about 3.5 times as much energy per capita as our colonial forebears because of literally thousands of efficiency improvements, mostly occasioned by the need to reduce costs, and not due to government regulations.]
In addition, how does the UN expect the world to provide the energy required for modern civilization? Most developed countries have no space for additional hydropower, and the US is tearing dams down. In Canada, with extensive hydropower, potential new sites are intensely opposed by the same green organizations that advocate these UN agreements to limit fossil fuels. The same applies to expanding nuclear power. As David Turver writes:
“Using the substitution method described above, [renewables including nuclear substituting coal, oil and gas] total energy consumption in 2022 was 178,899TWh, with the vast majority (77%) coming from fossil fuels. Wind and solar delivered about 5% of total energy. Despite a dip during 2020, consumption of fossil fuels has risen steadily since 2010. If we extend this total energy consumption out to 2050 using a linear trend, we might expect total energy consumption to rise to around 251,401TWh.
To understand how this might be delivered, we can use the pledge to triple nuclear power by 2050, growing from 6,702TWh in 2022 to 20,107TWh in 2050. If we take the renewables category as a whole and extend it out to 2050 using an exponential trend line, total renewables generation goes up from 34,960TWh in 2022 to 80,807TWh in 2050. In doing so, the extra renewable generation of 1,525TWh delivered in 2022 compared to 2021 goes up to 2,443TWh in 2050 compared to 2049. In other words, the annual rate of increase goes up by 60%. Given that traditional biomass consumption is steady, and hydro is very slow growing, this requires massive increases in solar and wind capacity, perhaps a five- or six-fold increase on 2022 levels. Even if the sites and minerals can be found to place and make these machines, such an increase is a very tall order to achieve. Even then, such a plan will only achieve the further enrichment of crony capitalists addicted to subsidies.
However, even with this ambitious assumption, we only get to 100,914TWh from nuclear and renewables by 2050. This leaves a gap of 150,487TWh to be filled, or 60% of the expected demand. This gap is bigger than last year’s fossil fuel consumption of 137,237TWh. If we have “transitioned away” from fossil fuels, where will this energy come from? Even if the commitment to tripling nuclear energy is doubled to a six-fold increase, it would barely make a dent in the energy gap. Let’s call this the COP28 Energy Credibility Gap.” [Boldface added]
The entire UNFCCC and IPCC process can be described as a collection of illusions resulting in the loss of credibility. Turver concludes:
“Alarmists make lots of vague claims about the catastrophe that faces us if global temperatures increase more than 1.5°C over pre-industrial levels. Very few of them ever acknowledge the benefits humanity has reaped from fossil fuels. Even fewer even consider the implications for us if we move to an energy scarce world. It is hardly worth contemplating a world where we are short of more than half the energy we need. An energy scarce world would have a massive negative impact on humanity. Al Jaber was right, phasing out fossil fuels would take us back to living in caves and result in starvation and death on a biblical scale. There must come a point where we realize that the supposed cure is worse than the alleged disease.
Clearly the declarations from COP28 are nothing more than elaborate performance art. It is time to end this charade of COP meetings before they do even more damage. Perhaps we should ask the delegates to make their way home on a pedalo [human-powered watercraft using pedals], so they learn first-hand what they have in mind for us.” See links under After Paris!
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UN Science: AMO physicist Howard Hayden exposes what the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change considers as the science of climate change. Under the heading of “Climate Change” the glossary of the Sixth Assessment Report, The Physical Science Basis states: [Boldface added]
“A change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/ or the variability of its properties and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings such as modulations of the solar cycles, volcanic eruptions and persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use. Note that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in its Article 1, defines climate change as: ‘a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods’. The UNFCCC thus makes a distinction between climate change attributable to human activities altering the atmospheric composition and climate variability attributable to natural causes. See also Climate variability, Detection and attribution, Global warming and Ocean acidification (OA).”
By this definition, virtually all weather and climate changes can be “attributed directly or indirectly to human activity” and called climate change. Rigorously using all physical evidence to establish causation and eliminate possible errors is no longer necessary or desired. Unscrupulous individuals can use imaginative statistics to indirectly attribute an event to human activity that altered the composition of the atmosphere or changed land use. To stop the volcanoes in Hawaii, will we soon see young women thrown in? See page 2222 of https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_AnnexVII.pdf
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Tripling What? Goal (a) of paragraph 27 of Final Report of COP 28 states: “Tripling renewable energy capacity globally” while reducing the use of fossil fuels. In his post: “Try Using Wind To Make Turbines” Paul Homewood writes:
“A 1.8megawatt onshore wind turbine weighs about 164 tons. The materials comprise concrete (foundations), steel (tower and nacelle), specialty metals (magnets), copper (generators) and composites (blades).
The raw materials need to be mined using gigantic steel diggers and dumper trucks, the mined materials need to be ground using gigantic steel grinding machines before being refined in a furnace. In the case of steel (trucks, machines and tower) the iron ore is mixed with coal in a blast furnace in order to reduce the ore to metal.”
Apparently, the UNFCCC considers the energy requirements of the earth moving involved in the extraction and the processing of materials to be insignificant – a problem to be resolved later. See link under Questioning the Orthodoxy
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Hypocrisy: With his usual flair for language, Matt Ridley had an article in the Daily Mail headlined “Hypocrisy is too feeble a word for the gulf between what world leaders preach at Cop28 and how much they still rely on fossil fuels.” He writes:
“Breakthrough! Deep into their umpteenth sleepless night of hard bargaining, the delegates at the Cop28 meeting in Dubai managed to upgrade a verb in their final deal.
Instead of saying nations ‘could’ take action, the agreement ‘calls on’ them to take action. Incredible! Cue rapturous applause and a standing ovation as representatives from 197 countries approved the historic ‘UAE Consensus’ on climate change.” See link under After Paris!
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Climategate: Statistician Stephen McIntyre was asked to be an “expert reviewer” on the Fourth IPCC Assessment Report (AR4, 2007), The Physical Science Basis. This one featured sharply rising global average surface temperature, sharply rising global sea level, and declining Northern Hemisphere snow cover. Using graphs of greenhouse gases from ice cores coupled with modern data (with no control, or standardization periods) it featured sharp rise in radiative forcing from methane and nitrous oxide. The report fails to consider that water vapor overlaps most of the frequencies in which methane and nitrous oxide are effective greenhouse gases, effectively eliminating their effectiveness on temperatures.
In a recent post in Climate Audit, McIntyre recounts his experience in attempting to get important data supporting one of the studies used by the IPCC in AR4. He provides links to contemporary entries on his experiences. He now writes:
“D’Arrigo et al 2006, then under submission, had been cited in drafts of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. I had been accepted as an IPCC reviewer and, as an IPCC reviewer, I asked IPCC to make the data available to me or to ask the lead author to make the data available. That prompted a vehement refusal that I documented in March 2007 (link). Readers unfamiliar with the severity of data obfuscation by climate science community should read that exchange. (Some further light on the campaign emerged later in the Climategate emails.)” [Boldface added]
The McIntyre link exposes the lack of scientific integrity in the IPCC process and those holding senior positions. As we see with Synthesis Report of IPCC AR6, 2023 and COP28 things have probably become worse, not better. See link under Climategate Continued and https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/06/ar4_syr.pdf
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Position of USA: Perhaps an editorial in the Wall Street Journal best summarized the position of the current Federal government. “John Kerry and CO2 Emissions Reality, He attacks Chevron while China keeps building coal plants” begins:
“Give John Kerry credit for persistence if not realism. President Biden’s climate envoy keeps demanding the end of fossil fuels while the world continues to blow through his apocalyptic warnings.
A new report in time for the COP28 climate conference in Dubai says that global CO2 emissions will hit a new peak this year. But Mr. Kerry keeps berating American fossil fuels producers though U.S. emissions are on track to fall 4% in 2023. The big problem: China’s emissions are set to rise by twice as much as the U.S. decline.
The Global Carbon Project estimates that worldwide CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels will increase 1.1% this year. That represents a slowdown from the last two decades. Yet emissions would have to drop by 9% annually to achieve the Paris climate agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. [Note that the WSJ is blithely assuming that IPCC’s musings about CO2-caused warming are correct.]
Mr. Kerry rapped U.S. oil and gas producers at this week’s United Nations climate confab for not doing enough. “We have no real evidence that [Chevron] and a lot of others are doing what every company needs to do,” he said. Well, actually, there is evidence that oil and gas producers are helping reduce emissions.
U.S. and European emissions this year are projected to fall by a combined 0.4 gigatons of CO2…”
The editorial credits much of this reduction to replacing coal-fired power plants with natural gas-fired power plants, not wind, solar, or hydropower. Increases in US exports of natural gas to Europe are helping those countries. The editorial then continues:
“…Not that the West’s emissions reductions will matter much as long as China and India continue to build more coal plants.
China’s emissions this year are set to climb by 0.5 gigatons while India’s will increase by 0.3 gigatons. Last year China approved 106 gigawatts of new coal power, four times as much as in 2021 and about as much as the peak electricity demand in France and Britain combined. Western leaders can keep tilting at windmills while China burns more coal.
Irony alert: China’s National Development and Reform Commission says that at least 200 gigawatts of coal capacity will be needed to support its solar and wind energy build-out. Beijing has figured out what President Biden and the climate left haven’t: Solar and wind energy can provide cheap power at the margin but must be backed up by fossil fuels or nuclear power. Batteries are getting better, but they are still expensive and can’t scale.
In other words, in the name of reducing CO2 emissions, China is increasing CO2 emissions. That more or less sums up the failure of the climate lobby.”
It also sums up the failure of critical thinking in US and EU leaders before making commitments they cannot hope to fill as they did at COP 26 in Glasgow in 2021. See Article 1.
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Realist Assessment? There has been a great deal written about the successes and failures of COP 28. Perhaps the most realistic assessment comes from a personal comment by Richard Courtney following an article regretting the failure of COP 28 to “save the world” as if humanity can save Earth. Courtney attended COP 7 (2000, the Hague) to participate in a “fringe meeting” arranged by Fred Singer with Gerd Rainer Weber. The meeting room was packed but silent after the presentations,. Perhaps those attending were shocked by the “blasphemy.” After a bit, a good discussion ensued which continued into the corridor after the meeting room had to be vacated.
In commenting on the article “COP28 Headed for ‘Complete Failure’ as Fossil Fuel Debate Rages” Courtney wrote:
“I fail to understand why CoP28 is being said to be a ‘failure’ when it seems to have been a complete success.
Throughout CoP28 thousands of people obtained stays in luxury hotels mostly at others’ expense, and they will have the possibility of a similar jaunt next year because the ‘CoP process’ was not finished for the 28th time.
What part of CoP28 (a) was ‘failure’ or (b) was not complete success?”
With apologies to Shakespeare, perhaps one could say:
The hurley-burley is done,
The battle was neither lost nor won,
It was so much fun,
Next year we will have a re-run.
See link under After Paris!
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Power Hungry: Energy analysist Roger Caiazza has pointed out that New York state officials have no idea of the importance of reliable power for high tech industries including semiconductor (computer chip) fabrication facilities and data centers. In WUWT, he writes the following regarding a proposed new chip fabrication facility in Clay, New York, by Micron Technology:
“I am following developments at Micron because the facility is going to be built within five miles of my home. I also follow the Climate Leadership & Community Protection Act (Climate Act) because of its impacts on New York.”
“’To put the Micron facility’s usage into perspective, in its last full year of operation the 2 Gigawatt Indian Point nuclear plant generated 16.3 Tera-watt hours so the Micron facility will need to be supported by a 2 Gigawatt fossil fuel or nuclear plant on site or 2.1 Gigawatts of generation off site, 5% more.’”
“Energy density is the reason that on-site wind and solar generation would only be virtue signaling. The area simply cannot generate enough electricity to be meaningful. I have no doubt that environmental activists will be upset that I recommend energy dense natural gas or nuclear cogeneration that could be installed on the footprint. However, if Micron is going to be a part of our community, it is time for everyone to be forward thinking and pragmatic about how best to make them competitive.”
Many politicians have no idea of the importance of reliable, affordable electricity to modern civilization which wind and solar cannot deliver. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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NO TWTW NEXT WEEK: It will resume on the last day of 2023 with the most significant climate science covered in 2023. The science, papers or videos, that may have been presented elsewhere before 2023, but it was not covered in TWTW until 2023 are included. Suggestions from readers are welcome.
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Number of the Week: 59 degrees F. Homo sapiens evolved in the tropics of Africa without fur, clothes, or animal skins to keep them warm. In reviewing Winter Games by Daniel Church Neal Asher writes:
“At 59 degrees Fahrenheit ambient temperature, without warm clothing or movement, your body temperature will drop, keep dropping and you’ll die in less than a day. 59 degrees Fahrenheit is also what climate scientists claim to be the average temperature of our planet which, they also claim, is burning up.”
Homo sapiens survives from the polar regions to the tropics, it will survive a warming from greenhouse gases. See link under Questioning European Green.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
D’arrigo et al 2006: NWNA Alaska
By Stephen McIntyre, Climate Audit, Dec 14, 2023
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Challenging the Orthodoxy – Radiation Transfer
The Role of Greenhouse Gases in Energy Transfer in the Earth’s Atmosphere
By W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, Mar 3, 2023
Energy Density and Micron
By Roger Caiazza, WUWT, Dec 10, 2023
More evidence for the global extent of the Little Ice Age
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 13, 2023
From the CO2Science Archive:
“What it means: The results of this study clearly indicate that the well-developed Little Ice Age of the Northern Hemisphere was strong enough to influence even the normally-warm Southern Hemispheric tropics.”
Challenging the Orthodoxy – RIP
Alan Longhurst 1925-2023: oceanographer and climate skeptic
By Javier Vinós, Climate Etc., Dec 14, 2023
“’Why, for instance, in southwest France for about two years now has the lower atmosphere suddenly become smog-particle free and the upper atmosphere devoid of water vapour? Why for more than a year now have the Sun and Moon risen and set in milk white brilliance every cloudless day or night? Why, in the same period, have I observed no towering cumulus clouds? And although air traffic overhead is near normal, where are the habitual N-S and E-W contrail grids of yesteryear?’”
Defending the Orthodoxy
Tidbits
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 13, 2023
“As Robinson Meyer writes in Heatmap Daily, ‘If you count delegates, staff, other attendees, and day visitors, more than 100,000 people will go to the climate conference this year, the UN climate director Simon Stiell announced yesterday.’ CDN regrets the error, the waste, the whole thing.
If your reaction to the previous item was “Simon Who?” we’d like you to know that “United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres appointed Mr. Simon Stiell of Grenada as Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) on 15 August 2022.”
“As if to prove that an amateur economist is nearly as dangerous as an amateur doctor, though how an amateur got this job is hard to understand, we give you Kristalina Georgieva, who ‘holds a PhD in Economics and an MA in Political Economy and Sociology from the Karl Marx Higher Institute of Economics’ who is now, by some sinister turn of events, the head of the International Monetary Fund.
[SEPP Comment: The Karl Marx Higher Institute of Economics, Sofia Bulgaria, is now known as the University of National and World Economy. Does she still believe in the superiority of the Soviet economy.?]
COP28: 5 big takeaways on a historic climate agreement
By Saulo Elbein and Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Dec 13, 2023
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
A quarter of freshwater fish at risk of extinction, assessment reveals
By Lauren Sforza, The Hill, Dec 12, 2023
Link to press release: Freshwater fish highlight escalating climate impacts on species – IUCN Red List
By Staff, International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), Dec 11, 2023
“Now, the threat level of the Atlantic salmon has been moved from ‘Least Concern’ to ‘Near Threatened.’ It pointed to climate change, dams and invasive species as the reasons for the declining population.
From Now To 2100 Emission Reduction Policy Costs Greatly Exceed Any Net Benefit From Averted Warming
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Dec 14, 2023
Link to paper: Costs and Benefits of the Paris Targets
By Richard Tol, Climate Change Economics, June 30, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Tol estimates that the costs of CO2 reduction and removal of CO2 from the atmosphere may be 4 to 6% of total gross domestic product.]
How Far Will The Climate Cult Go?
By I & I Editorial Board, Dec 15, 2023
With friends like these…
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 13, 2023
“’No sooner had Al Jaber’s remarks become public than the scientific community descended on him, with top experts citing the overwhelming mass of hard evidence establishing the vital need to quit coal, gas and oil.’
Not just experts. Top experts. As in that scene at the end of Raiders of the Lost Ark, they do not get identified. But top men.”
[SEPP Comment: Forklift drivers in a dead storage warehouse?]
Keep Your Head, Others are Losing Theirs Over Climate
By Ron Clutz, Science Matter, Dec 15, 2023
Comments on Video of Bjorn Lomborg interview by John Stossel
Climate and COVID – Making It Up As They Go Along
By Brian C. Joondeph, M.D., American Thinker, Dec 11, 2023
Try Using Wind To Make Turbines
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 15, 2023
Former Federal German Minister Under Merkel Warns: Germany Heading To A Climate Tyranny
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Dec 12, 2023
Former German Minister warns government is using CO2 “like the virus” to create a tyranny
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Dec 13, 2023
“The Pandemic woke up a lot of people”
COP28 Wish-Wash: What is a Climate Alarmist to Do? (Part I)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Dec 15, 2023
Outcome of the first global stocktake
Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement
Revised Advance Version, First global stocktake
By Staff, UNFCCC, Dec 13, 2023
COP28: Not Much Cop
COP28 is yet another triumph of ignorance and hubris over experience.
By David Turver, Eigen Values, Dec 17, 2023 [H/t Paul DeWitt]
African Energy Chamber to COP28: We Want Fossil Fuels!
By Robert Bradley Jr., WUWT, Dec 13, 2023
Link to: We will not Sell-Out by Phasing Out: African Negotiations Urged to Fight for Africa
Press Release, African Energy Chamber, Dec 12, 2023
“Oil and gas will play an instrumental role in Africa’s economy for decades to come, and as such, African producers will not agree to any phase-out of these resources.”
By Matt Ridley, Daily Mail, Dec 13, 2023
FLOP28 & the annual COP pantomime
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, Dec 15, 2023
COP28 Headed for ‘Complete Failure’ as Fossil Fuel Debate Rages
By Tsvetana Paraskova, Oil Price.com, Dec 12, 2023
COP28 Optics: Deal to “Transition Away” not “Phase Out” Fossil Fuels
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Dec 13, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Includes chart of how successful past COPs have been in reducing use of fossil fuels.]
COP28 — one big global Psy-op to screw more money out of a few patsies
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Dec 14, 2023
“The UNFCCC hopes everyone will turn up with better plans next year:”
“COP28’s Fossil Fuel Phaseout: A Comedy of Errors”
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Dec 12, 2023
“Climate Summit’s U-Turn – From Heroic Vows to Muffled Whispers”
Nations strike unprecedented agreement to transition away from fossil fuels at COP28
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Dec 13, 2023
“The language in the COP28 climate summit agreement appears to be stronger than past years’ calls to ‘phase down’ or reduce the use of coal.”
COP28 deal is fossil fuel ‘phase out’ in all but name, MEPs insist
More than 100 countries lobbied to have the words “phase-out” explicitly included within the agreement made on December 13 but the suggestion was shot down by a coalition of OPEC nations led by Saudi Arabia
By Peter Caddle, Brussels Signal, Dec 14, 2023
“’The adopted text does not mention the word ‘phase-out’ but it is a ‘phase-out’ of fossil fuels,’ the chairman of the European Parliament delegation at COP28 said.”
[SEPP Comment: Congratulating oneself is not self-flattery? How many will deliver on the promise to triple nuclear capacity by 2050?]
Saudi Oil Minister Praises UN Climate Agreement, Says It Won’t Slow Their Oil Sales
By Nick Pope, Daily Caller, Dec 13, 2023
COP28 Achieves Nothing
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 13, 2023
Reflections on COP28 – Energy Realism eclipses Climate Alarmism – Dr Benny Peiser
By Benny Peiser, GWPF, Via C=ICSF & CLINTEL, Dec 13, 2023
Video
“Verge of complete failure” but otherwise a bonanza Olympic fashion parade for billionaires
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Dec 12, 2023
COP 28: The radicals lose again
By David Wojick, CFACT, Dec 14, 2023
“As I pointed out several years ago, the climate alarmists have a civil war going on, between radicals and moderates. Radical leader Greta Thunberg’s famous ‘How dare you’ was addressed to moderate COP negotiators, not to skeptics.”
“Note that a transition is importantly different from a phase out. A transition implies that the needed energy is still there, just from a different source. Phase out says nothing about meeting energy needs.”
[SEPP Comment: When the UN uses a child as a spokesperson for a complex issue, it loses any rational authority and relies on emotional appeal.]
What the World Can Learn From COP28 for COP29
By Sascha Sheehan, Real Clear Energy, Dec 14, 2023
“Despite the best intentions of COP28 member states and climate champions, the summit was regrettably tainted by the words and deeds of an authoritarian host, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and a conference president, Dr. Sultan al Jaber, most notable for serving as Minister of Industry and Technology and heading the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), which provides about 3 percent of the world’s oil.”
Problems in the Orthodoxy
100-Year-Old Union-Backed Law Among Snags Derailing Biden’s Green Energy Agenda
By Robert Schmad, The Daily Caller, Dec 14, 2023
Net Zero’s dirty secret: Britain’s green transition is powered by Chinese coal
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 9, 2023
Seeking a Common Ground
Surge in number of ‘extremely productive’ authors concerns scientists
Some researchers publish a new paper every five days, on average. Data trackers suspect not all their manuscripts were produced through honest labour.
By Gemma Conroy, Nature, Dec 11, 2023 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Comment by Richard Courtney: “When you pay people to shovel manure then some people will shovel it.”
Changing Weather
Russia Reels From -60°C Cold Blast… And Munich Breaks December Snow Record
By P Gosselin, From EIKE, Not Tricks Zone, Dec 10, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Why didn’t traditional news services discuss this weather (climate change) during the COP 28?]
El Nino Weather Ahead
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Dec 14, 2023
Is Northwest Precipitation Getting Heavier or Lighter?
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Dec 12, 2023
“In any case, instead of speculating about precipitation trends, let’s check out what the real world is telling us.”
Let it snow!
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Dec 12, 2023
Changing Climate
Lake Chala, and what was under it
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 13, 2023
“The purple line shows roughly the same pattern except there wasn’t much of a Younger Dryas event at Lake Chala (the leftmost gray shaded band). But you can clearly see the run up in temperatures to about 5,000 years ago followed by a drop, then a partial recovery up to the present.”
Changing Seas
November 2023 Ocean Warmth Persists Due to Tropics
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Dec 14, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Speculates that ocean warming may be from increased solar activity reducing cloudiness.]
SE Asian Sea Levels Were 3-4 Meters Higher Than Today 7-4 Thousand Years Ago
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Dec 12, 2023
Link to paper: Glacial Isostatic Adjustment modelling of the mid-Holocene sea-level highstand of Singapore and Southeast Asia
By Tanghua Li, et al., Quaternary Science Reviews, Nov 1, 2023
Skeptics visit the poster-child of severely bleached reefs, and it’s just fine 18 months later…
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Dec 9, 2023
[SEPP Comment: A different take on Jennifer Marohasy’s post last week. The greenhouse for coral is amusing.]
Drowned New York Beaches
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Dec 14, 2023
“In 1995, the New York Times predicted most East Coast beaches would be gone by 2020.”
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Churchill end-of-season problem polar bear reports finally published
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Dec 12, 2023
Despite hand-wringing about Churchill polar bears this year, 2023 wasn’t their worst summer
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Dec 9, 2023
Unprecedented mass gain over the Antarctic ice sheet between 2021 and 2022 caused by large precipitation anomalies
By Wei Wang, et al., Environmental Research Letters, Nov 9, 2023
Authors from Tongji University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
We are all going to have died
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 13, 2023
“That ‘WHO Europe’ includes Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan suggests that someone flunked geography as well.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
Sky’s Dengue Fever Lies
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 11, 2023
Wrong, CNN, Climate Change Isn’t the Cause of Rising Bear Attacks in Japan
Linnea Lueken
By Linnea Lueken, Climate Realism, Dec 12, 2023
Who To Believe? AEP Or Your Lying Eyes!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 13, 2023
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Lazard’s LCOE
By Andy May, WUWT, Dec 11, 2023
“Lazard’s levelized cost of energy (LCOE) is cited on the internet all the time as the source for ‘solar and wind are cheaper than fossil fuels.’ They don’t really mean ‘energy,’ they mean ‘electricity.’ The world consumed only 18% of its energy in 2021 as electricity, so LCOE is just the cost of 18% of our total consumption, a fact often lost in these discussions.”
No, Media, ‘Catastrophic Climate Tipping Points’ are Nothing to Worry About
By Anthony Watts, Climate Realism, Dec 8, 2023
[SEPP Comment: A thorough analysis of the ridiculous claim.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Climate change mitigation: tackling the commercial determinants of planetary health inequity
By Sharon Friel, The Lancet, Nov 14, 2023
“The 2023 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change confirms climate change as the biggest global health threat of the 21st century. Although the findings of the 2023 report are not surprising, they are incredibly worrying for the survival of humanity. We are currently experiencing a mean heating of 1·14°C above pre-industrial levels, and policies to date put the world on track to almost 3°C of heating. Every health dimension tracked by the Lancet Countdown is worsening as the climate changes. Extensive social and health inequities will occur as a result.”
[SEPP Comment: Did not bother with the full report. What about a future glaciation?]
Renewables’ growing price advantage over fossil fuels paves way for industry dominance
By Saul Elbein, The Hill, Dec 10, 2023
Link to: Renewable Energy Market Update – June 2023
By Staff, IEA, June 2023
Link to Soar Futures Study
By Staff, Solar Energy Technologies Office, Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy (EERE) and National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Sep 8, 2021
From the EERE & NREL study: “With continued technological advances, electricity prices do not increase through 2035. Ninety-five percent decarbonization of the electric grid is achieved in 2035 without increasing electricity prices because decarbonization and electrification costs are fully offset by savings from technological improvements and enhanced demand flexibility.”
[SEPP Comment; If they are so cost-effective, why do they need subsidies?]
Earth on verge of five catastrophic climate tipping points, scientists warn
Humanity faces ‘devastating domino effects’ including mass displacement and financial ruin as planet warms
By Ajit Niranjan, The Guardian Dec 5, 2023 [H/t William Readdy]
Climate Advocacy: Incompetence Or Intentional Fraud?
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Dec 14, 2023
Link to article: Powered by wind and water: The Canary Island proving it is possible to run on renewables
By Lauren Crosby Medlicott, Euronews.green, Dec 8, 2023
[SEPP Comment: The 28 days of wind power and storage in the Canary Islands is based on 2018 data, which used diesel 40% of the time. Then the numbers declined, and the utility no longer reports them.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
“We are rapidly crashing”: Global Warming Extinction Claim
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Dec 12, 2023
Link to Press Release: Climate change: if warming approaches 2°C, a trickle of extinctions will become a flood
By Alex Pigot, The Conservation, Dec 11, 2023
Link to paper: Abrupt expansion of climate change risks for species globally
By Alex Pigot, et al., Nature, Ecology & Evolution, May 18, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Worrall exposes the paper for what it is: academic false alarms.]
Isle of Wight Blame Rain On Climate Change
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 12, 2023
Communicating Better to the Public – Protest
Climate activists struggle to be heard at this year’s U.N. climate talks
By Aya Batrawy & Rebecca Hersher, NPR, Dec 12, 2023
“Activists say restrictions and size of venue are ‘killing the movement’”
Destructive Ignorant Students Undermine the University of Washington
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Dec 11, 2023
“A few days before this, the same students defaced many locations around campus with antisemitic and anti-Israel messages, including Nazi swastikas (see below).
Strangely, most of the local major media did not cover any of it.”
Expanding the Orthodoxy
CNN: ‘It’s time to limit how often we can travel abroad – ‘Carbon Passports’ may be the answer’ – ‘Drastic changes to our travel habits are inevitable’ – Suggests restrictions will be ‘forced’ upon public
By Marc Marno, Climate Depot, Dec 9, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Better yet, stop all international feel-good conferences such as COP, WEF, etc.]
Seizing Private Land Is Next Step in Fight Against Climate Change
Eminent domain is becoming the weapon of choice against opposition to large wind and solar projects being planned and constructed around the United States.
By Kevin Stocklin, The Epoch Times, Dec 2, 2023 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Book review: Winter Games
By Neal Asher, Net Zero Watch, Dec 9, 2023
Litigation Issues
Young Californians allege intentional discrimination in greenhouse gas emissions in lawsuit
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Dec 12, 2023
“The plaintiffs allege that the EPA has known about greenhouse gas emissions’ impacts on children for years.”
[SEPP Comment: Doubt EPA will mount a rigorous defense. Seems to be another “sue and settle” favoring expanding governmental powers.]
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
Homeowners hit with ‘boiler tax’ to pay for heat pump drive
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 15, 2023
Energy Issues — US
X-Raying the Reality and Origin of a Hollow Phrase: ‘Energy Transition’
By Mark Mills, Real Clear Markets, Dec 4, 2023
“The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act will spend some $2 trillion to try and reduce CO2 emissions by about 1 gigaton a year (assuming fully deployed, and various elastic assumptions are true). A lot of that spending will end up directly and indirectly purchasing China’s products. Meanwhile, just the additional coal plants being built in China will lead to an additional 2 gigatons of CO2 emitted per year. Seems like a bad trade.”
[SEPP Comment: From President Carter’s “moral equivalent of war” (MEOW) speech on the need to transition to coal because the world was running out of oil and gas to a MEOW belief that the world has too much oil and gas.]
Growing U.S. Oil Exports Put Lasting Pressure on Prices
By Irina Slav, Oil Price.com, Dec 7, 2023
Cargo-tracking data from Kpler and Vortexa has suggested U.S. crude oil exports hit a record of nearly 6 million barrels daily last week.
Despite the substantial discrepancy between export estimates, the fact remains that the U.S. is now a major exporter.
Bloomberg: Producers are looking to get rid of as many barrels as they can as the end of the year and tax season approaches.
Washington’s Control of Energy
The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve only has a 20-day supply for the country
By Ronald Stein, CFACT, Dec 13, 2023
“In the meantime, under the watch of the Department of Energy that was established in 1977 to lessen our dependence on foreign oil, with a $48 billion dollar budget in 2023, 14,000 federal employees and over 95,000 management and operating contractors, they have ‘allowed’ California, the 4th largest economy in the world, to increase its dependency on foreign crude oil from 5 to almost 60 percent!”
Biden administration issues final five-year offshore drilling plan
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Dec 15, 2023
“The Interior Department announced its final drilling plan for offshore oil and gas leasing over the next five years on Friday, setting three further lease sales between 2024 and 2029.
The federal government is required to lease at least 60 million acres for oil and gas exploration as a condition of issuing offshore wind power leases under the provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act.”
White House orders studies of Snake River dam removal to restore salmon populations
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Dec 14, 2023
[SEPP Comment: The most reliable source of “renewable” electricity generation.]
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Bitumen beyond combustion: how to triple oil sands value, reduce emissions, and create an advanced material industry for 2% of a battery plant’s subsidies
By Terry Etam, BOE Report, Dec 13, 2023
Link to paper: Bitumen beyond combustion: How Oil Sands can Help the World reach Net-Zero Emissions and Create Economic Opportunities for Alberta and Canada
By John Zhou, et al., Alberta Innovates, November 2023
[SEPP Comment: Interesting idea on the use of bitumen (oil sands) for carbon fiber to make lighter weight vehicles and other products.]
Return of King Coal?
What Do China and India Know About Coal That Biden and Democrats Don’t?
By Frank Lasee, Real Clear Energy, Dec 11, 2023
“They [Washington] care more about climate ideology than people.”
Nuclear Energy and Fears
More SMR Woes: Oklo/Air-Force Cancellation
By Kennedy Maize, Master Resource, Dec 12, 2023
‘Huge Milestone’: Biden Admin Green Lights Nuke Reactor Using Tech Not Utilized In Decades
By Nick Pope, Daily Caller, Dec 12, 2023 [H/t WUWT]
“The reactor, known as Hermes, is notable because it uses molten salts as a coolant for nuclear energy production rather than water, which traditionally serves that function, according to the World Nuclear Association. The Hermes facility will serve as a demonstration reactor, meaning that the company will use it to prove that it can generate safe and affordable energy in the future with the technology it uses, according to Kairos [Power].”
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Deluded Over Wind and Solar Security–Euan Mearns
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 12, 2023
“On Saturday 2 December I made a couple of spot checks on UK electricity supply and demand at 13:30 and 16:50. At 13:30 demand was 40 GW. The UK has 29 GW of installed wind capacity and 15 GW of installed solar PV giving a total for variable renewable energy of 44 GW, enough to cover all demand when it is windy and sunny. At 13:30 on Saturday, combined wind and solar were providing only 9.4% of demand and by 16:50 that had dropped to 3.8% of demand.”
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Billions To Be Wasted On Inefficient Hydrogen Factories
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 15, 2023
“So we are going to spend billions building these hydrogen factories, and in the process will need twice as much gas as we would have needed if we burnt the stuff in the first place!”
Inside the Hydrogen Fuel Project Bubbles
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Dec 10, 2023
America Needs Biofuels to Help the Global Energy Transition
By Lindsay Fitzgerald, Real Clear Energy, Dec 11, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Biofuels without the use of fossil fuels for farming, artificial fertilizer (with nitrous oxide emissions) or livestock fertilizer (from methane producing cattle)?]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage
Sky Thinks Battery Storage Can Replace CCGTs
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 9, 2023
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
EVs Have Lost Spark with Public
By Larry Bell, Newsmax, Dec 15, 2023
Oslo’s E-Bus Fleet Could Use Some Warming…City Paralyzed as Buses “Break Down” Due To Cold
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Dec 13, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Did the city politicians believe global warming would give Oslo tropical winters?]
Congress Spent $7.5 Billion on E.V. Chargers. After 2 Years, None Are Built.
More than $2 billion has been distributed, but only two states have even broken ground and most states haven’t even submitted proposals.
By Joe Lancaster, Reason, Dec 8, 2023
Carbon Schemes
The old bury gas in dirt trick
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 13, 2023
“’Carbon-dioxide removal is not the most pressing problem facing the world. But it is the foundation on which the stable climate of the future will be based. And if the world waits until it is urgent as well, it will have waited too long.’” – The Economist
[SEPP Comment: Extinction of complex life on Earth will stabilize its climate?]
California Dreaming
“The erratic reality of climate change”
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Dec 15, 2023
“The same weather California has always had is now ‘The erratic reality of climate change’”
The California Sun is Setting on Exorbitant Rooftop Solar Subsidies
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Dec 13, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Politicized bankruptcy of critical thinking leads to financial bankruptcy?]
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Climate Darwin award
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 13, 2023
“The CBC, Canada’s state broadcaster ran a glowing self-profile by a guy who ‘got a vasectomy due to climate grief’. A failing media company with a collapsing audience share going through Christmas layoffs of hundreds of staff, despite its $1.4 billion subsidy, probably shouldn’t be celebrating the further shrinkage of its remaining woke audience.”
It’s a fair cop
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 13, 2023
“’So far, the United Nations Women launched its ‘Feminist Climate Justice: A Framework for Action’ report, which showed how climate change will push up to 158 million more women and girls into poverty and will plunge 236 million more women into hunger by 2050.’
Note the spurious precision. Not roughly 150 million, or a sixth of a billion, or some made-up number. No indeed; 158 million into poverty and 236 million into hunger. Though how you’d get 76 million pushed into hunger but not poverty is a bit hard to fathom since just about the first thing you do with money if you have any is buy food.’
Misogyny, authoritarianism, and climate change
By Nitasha Kaul, Tom Buchanan, Analyses of Social Issues and Public Policy, May 18, 2023 [H/t WUWT]
“And so, it is 100% clear that there is this toxic package or bundle of right-wing ideology, nationalism, exceptionalism, racism, sexism, anti-immigrantism, and anti-climate-change that goes with it. That is what drives many of them.”
[Katharine Hayhoe, interviewed by Bjork-James & Barla, 2021, p. 389]
[SEPP Comment: No wonder Hayhoe has tenure in the Department of Political Science.]
Fifteen Years Of Toasted Earth
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Dec 15, 2023
“’ “We’re toast if we don’t get on a very different path,’ Hansen, director of the Goddard Institute of Space Sciences.
“Hansen, echoing work by other scientists, said that in five to 10 years, the Arctic will be free of sea ice in the summer.
“Rep. Ed Markey, D-Mass., committee chairman, said, ‘Dr. Hansen was right. Twenty years later, we recognize him as a climate prophet.’”
Al Gore’s Tiresome Crusade: So Long, So Wrong
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Dec 11, 2023
Sand Dune Erodes? –Blame It On Climate Change!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 14, 2023
“Expect more sob stories like this one in coming weeks, as the climate establishment attempts to make us all feel guilty about using fossil fuels.”
“unprecedented melting of the arctic ice fields.”
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Dec 14, 2023
UK’s Orbex secures funding for carbon-neutral spaceport development
By Staff Writers, Forres, UK (SPX), Dec 13, 2023
“A key innovation of Orbex Prime is its propulsion using bio-propane, a renewable fuel source that drastically reduces the carbon footprint by up to 96% compared to traditional satellite launch vehicles reliant on fossil fuels. Moreover, it is engineered to leave no debris in orbit, addressing the critical issue of space pollution.”
ARTICLES
1. John Kerry and CO2 Emissions Reality
He attacks Chevron while China keeps building coal plants.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, Dec. 7, 2023
TWTW Summary: Key parts discussed in the “This Week” section above.
***************
Storms have been occurring in Australia for days.
and see why here.. –
Basically the storms that hit N Queensland last week have triggered a monsoon.
They were a vanguard of warm moist air off the ocean that has worked to burst the ‘resistant ridge’ which sits atop Australia nearly year-round constantly
See now how barometric pressure has plummeted (about 1008 over Alice Springs where less than 1013 is your ‘tipping point’) and that has triggered a tsunami of warm moist air off the ocean from nearly all around Australia.
See the onshore winds, see where they go and where they do go: It rains
But also see the temps at the surface = 90°F++
That leads to an immensely steep lapse rate and hence; The very vigorous thunderstorms
If, if Australia was covered in perennial greenery and had some organic material in its soils, that picture (although much less vigorous) would be happening all year round and a would then have a *true* Mediterranean Climate
The storms then would be much less ‘stormy’ because the moisture in the soils and plants would lower the average surface temps and hence the lapse rate.
It would still rain a lot but not as thunderstorms
And wave bye-bye to ENSO = THE primary cause of Global Warming these days not least. Nowhere else is warming.
Also wave bye-bye to 9ppm of atmospheric CO₂ every year thereafter
This is not the end of the storms. The forest will green up, and the eucalyptus trees will get rid of the competition with the help of fire (to which the trunks of eucalyptus trees are resistant). All this is a testament to the remarkable stability of Australia’s climate, because eucalyptus trees have adapted so well to it.
https://www.blitzortung.org/en/historical_maps.php
Thunderstorms.
https://www.blitzortung.org/en/live_lightning_maps.php
Another one bites the dust
“”Scottish battery maker Amte Power is going down and plans to enter administration as it has insufficient funds to continue trading.””
https://www.bestmag.co.uk/scottish-battery-maker-amte-power-plans-administration/
While another tries its luck.
(I lost the link but it’s very recent)
Some ‘ex Tesla’ boys are looking to start a Sodium Ion battery plant ## (in Wales I think)
They raved about this new technology and showed a graph comparing Li-Ion with LiFePO4 compared Sodium Ion and how sodium was cheaper. Just.
But, Li-Ion has nearly twice the energy density of Sodium and about 20% more than LiFePO4
What I didn’t ‘get’ was why anyone would want these new batteries when they patently don’t even want LiFe batteries in their cars. Even if they wanted the cars anyway.
## i.e. A subsidy mining operation – expect to read a new Fail Story soon
Heavy rainfall throughout California.
CopOut 28: A period of mourning is required.
“”a “tragedy for the planet and our future””
“The lack of an agreement to phase out fossil fuels was devastating,” said Prof Michael Mann, a climatologist
Dr Magdalena Skipper, the editor in chief of the science journal Nature, said: “The science is clear – fossil fuels must go. World leaders will fail their people and the planet unless they accept this reality.”
An editorial in Nature said the failure over the phase-out was “more than a missed opportunity”, it was “dangerous”
“The climate doesn’t care who emits greenhouse gases,” the editorial continued.
Sir David King, the chair of the Climate Crisis Advisory Group and a former UK chief scientific adviser, said: “The wording of the deal is feeble.
Attribution spoiler…
Dr Friederike Otto, a climatologist at Imperial College London, said: “Until fossil fuels are phased out, the world will continue to become a more dangerous, more expensive and more uncertain place to live.
Prof Martin Siegert, a polar scientist and deputy vice-chancellor at the University of Exeter, said: “The science is perfectly clear.
Dr Elena Cantarello, a senior lecturer in sustainability science at Bournemouth University, UK, said: “It is hugely disappointing to see how a very small number of countries have been able to put short-term national interests ahead of the future of people and nature.”
Dr James Dyke, an associate professor in earth system dynamics at the University of Exeter, said: “Cop28 needed to deliver an unambiguous statement.
Dr Lisa Schipper, a professor of development geography at the University of Bonn in Germany, said: “The early statement by the Cop president about the lack of science behind phasing out fossil fuels sent shockwaves to scientists
“Mend it, don’t end it,” Mann said. “Cops are our only multilateral framework for negotiating global climate policies. But the failure of Cop28 to achieve any meaningful progress at a time when our window of opportunity to limit warming below catastrophic levels is closing, is a source of great concern.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/14/failure-cop28-fossil-fuel-phase-out-devastating-say-scientists
“Mend it, don’t end it,” Mann said. We need that hockey schtick.
https://www.nature.com/articles/142196a0
The Piltdown Man Discovery: Unveiling of a Monolith Memorial Nature volume 142, pages 196–197 (1938)
What to expect from Nature – Piltdown Mann. No mending it.
Some GW in Kyrgyzstan:
A curious form of diHydrogen monoxide in crystalline form – more commonly known as Viner crystals. They are quite rare and schoolchildren have no idea what they are….
“a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science.“
This includes a serious breach of protocol on the part of COP28. ‘The Science’ should always be capitalized in respect of a deity.
COP is backwards, too. It should be POC – Party of Clowns.
The long letter missed this short epilogue :
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Norwegian-Energy-Giant-Signs-50-Billion-Euro-Natural-Gas-Deal-With-Germany.html
Norwegian Energy Giant Signs 50 Billion Euro Natural Gas Deal With GermanyObviously Polish spokesman, now back in Gov’t, Sikorski , was happy writing “Thank you USA” the day NordStream was bombed, and the Norwegian gas pipeline to Poland opened up.
Yet this Oilprice article ends with :
“As is known, Germany’s current energy supply situation is rather dire, due to the loss of Russian natural gas supplies and higher energy prices overall. Reports are showing that Germany’s industrial and manufacturing base, the main cornerstone of the country’s economy, is confronted by severe threats.”
With a positive headline a complete and utter incompetent mess is actually reported.
Story tip.
Australia’s AGL Energy Ltd to close Liddell coal fired plant and replace with a $700 million battery storage array that will provide – wait for it –
2 HOURS of “keeping the lights on”.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/dec/20/agl-building-battery-grid-liddell-coal-plant
So, that’s $5,833,333.33 per minute…..
A 500MW battery, two hour duration all for the sum of $700M.
If it can handle a life of 10 years, and is cycled once per day, then in simple terms that would be: –
$70M per year.
$192k per day.
$192 per MWHr.
That does seem very cost effective when compared to the coal fired power station that it is replacing. A coal plant that would operate in the order of tens of dollars per MWHr.
Someone at AGL has worked out how to make more money from the punters.
Should be “doesn’t”…… Or I need to add a “/s” after the second last paragraph, your choice.
You had me going there for a minute, Eng_Ian 🙂
When human CO2 emissions dropped by 6% in 2020, according to the IEA, the measured increases in CO2 didn’t change enough to be noticeable to the eye on a graph of CO2 versus the year.
https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2020/global-energy-and-co2-emissions-in-2020
https://www.co2.earth/monthly-co2
About the El Hierro Canary island:
The actual data is available at the following link and worth to see: https://demanda.ree.es/visiona/canarias/el_hierro5m/total/2023-12-19 (click the small “windmill icon” marked “Ver renovables”)
https://quoteinvestigator.com/2012/04/28/shorter-letter/?amp=1
Your “quote” seems to have many origins very much predating Mark Twain. The first in English was a translation of Pascal’s saying from 1657, but there are references back to Pliny (The Younger?). It is a wonderful quote that I can see would be ripe for the stealing. I had thought it was originally Napoleon’s, myself.
Thunderstorms in Australia.
This year the polar vortex will move over Siberia and Europe.
“General Motors Co.’s Buick brand said that nearly half of its U.S. dealers have opted to take a buyout instead of moving forward with its electric-vehicle future.”