Munich Record December Snow Depth Shows That Weather Surprises Us Again And Again

From the NoTricksZone

By P Gosselin

X-account Kunstliche Intelligenz here reports on Germany’s recent heavy snowfalls in Munich, which surprised experts and media and sent them scrambling for an explanation. 

Snow quantities: Climate models are patient. By Kunstliche Intelligenz 

Chart shows the max. snow depth reached and date occurred each year in Munich since 1954. Source: Kunstliche Intelligenz

It’s snowing a lot in Germany and climate researchers already feel compelled to modify their explanations in an effort to maintain interpretative sovereignty. A brief summary of the contradictions that are becoming apparent.

1. Polar vortex: cooling leads to more snow
2021 already saw a lot of snow in Europe. Climate researchers argued it was snowing more because it was getting colder in northern Europe despite global warming. The behavior of the polar vortex was cited as the cause (strong/weak polar vortex and jet stream). [1]

Evidence: climate change leads to less snow
However, the amount of snow is actually decreasing in Europe due to climate change, as satellite analyses show. From 1973/74 to 2022/23, the amount of snow fell continuously by a total of 20.4%. [3]

2. Humidity: warming leads to more snow
In 2023, there will again be a lot of snow in Germany. Another explanation is making rounds: due to climate change, the temperature is rising, the atmosphere is absorbing more moisture and as a result it is also snowing more, albeit at higher temperatures. [2]

Evidence: New snow records in Germany
(See chart) The evaluation of historically measured maximum snowfall amounts shows that the snowfall in Munich on December 2 is an all-time December record with 44 cm. [4] If you analyze the data, you can see that the maximum snowfall from 1954-1974 was particularly high with an average of 25 cm. This fits in with the drop in temperatures between 1940 and 1975, which gave rise to speculation that a new ice age was imminent. [5] Since 1975, on the other hand, the maximum amount of snow has averaged 19 cm with no clear trend.

Conclusion: Depending on the evaluation and explanation, you can interpret anyything into the snow data and argue for or against global warming. But if you realize that weather and climate are chaotic systems that are fundamentally unpredictable and that the assumption of a monocausal relationship that is supposed to dominate everything (CO2 concentration and temperature) is ultimately just a model assumption and nothing more, the cognitive dissonance immediately fizzles out. Like all other weather phenomena, the amount of snow in 2024 will not take into account any extremely simplified and under-complex computer modeling, but will surprise us again and again.

[1] https://dw.com/en/cold-winter-polar-vortex/a-56534450 
[2] https://tagesschau.de/faktenfinder/schnee-100.html
[3] https://x.com/Climatologist49/status/1731052502668427647?s=20
[4] https://x.com/meteomabe/status/1730924979674370114?s=20
[5] https://welt.de/wissenschaft.html

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vuurklip
December 7, 2023 2:10 am

Humidity: warming leads to more snow

Follow this logic to its conclusion and we should expect most snow to occur in summer?

Reply to  vuurklip
December 7, 2023 4:48 am

Sumer where? If it increases humidity in Antarctica then, yes, you might expect more snow there during “summer” in Antarctica.

What most places will see in summer is more precipitation. Think greening of the Sahara Desert.

Bob Rogers
Reply to  vuurklip
December 7, 2023 6:53 am

Then again, read up on “lake effect” snow. It can only happen before the lakes freeze over.

John Hultquist
Reply to  Bob Rogers
December 7, 2023 10:00 am

Search-up: BUFKIT NWS

Reply to  vuurklip
December 7, 2023 1:03 pm

The surface climate system has significant lags. Peak solar intensity in the northern hemisphere occurs in late June (summer solstice) It takes 2 months for the ocean surface temperature to peak after that – usually late August or early September. By late September, the atmosphere reaches peak moisture in the NH. That air moves across land during October just as the land falls below 0C in late October early November; cold enough to form snow.

Any water that dropped out before the land reached 0C is available for evaporation and precipitation as snow when the land is below 0C.

Record ocean temperature in September leads to record snowfall in November and December. Glaciation requires the oceans in the NH to be warming. NH ocean warming always precedes glaciation. Cooling during glaciation is the result of the ice on land forming mountains and the lower elevation of the oceans resulting in greater difference in elevation between ocean and land surface. The ocean surface remains warm but the air temperature over land is much cooler due to the lapse rate and difficulty of getting a block of ice over 0C. More of the NH looks like Greenland..

December 7, 2023 2:26 am

Scientists say the snow is a thing of the past, so, either the picture have been photoshopped or it’s a true picture of a cotton Christmas décoration …

Reply to  Petit-Barde
December 7, 2023 1:14 pm

Climate modellers now claim they predicted more snow:
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/17/4691/2023/

Following the projected increase in extreme precipitation, an increase in extreme snowfall may be expected in cold regions, e.g., for high latitudes or at high elevations. By contrast, in low- to medium-elevation areas, the probability of experiencing rainfall instead of snowfall is generally projected to increase due to warming conditions. Yet, in mountainous areas, despite the likely existence of these contrasted trends according to elevation, changes in extreme snowfall with warming remain poorly quantified. 

They claim they predicted more precipitation but need to tweak how much comes down as snow and how much comes down as rain.

What they do not do is take this to its logical conclusion with high elevations and high latitudes actually gaining permanent ice and that ice moving down hill and expanding southward as it did 120,000 years ago.

Richard Page
December 7, 2023 2:40 am

It’s weather. Temperatures will either go up, stay more or less the same or go down; the climate enthusiasts have always had a hard time remembering that last one though.

strativarius
December 7, 2023 3:05 am

Once they told us weather is not climate; climate is >= a trend over a minimum period of thirty years. And then over time it then suited them to claim weather was in fact climate (driven, related etc) – a hurricane, a heat wave, a flood etc (attributes by Friederike Otto, models and chums). In other words, they upped the ante. 

A simple analogy ‘could’ be (geddit!) attempting to predict which card will be picked from the deck next. Temperatures are not the only variable, their arrogance and hubris are now off the charts.

After the conclusion of hostilities in Europe in 1945 the Norwegian government sent Britain a Christmas tree – erected in Trafalgar Square – as a token for hosting the Norwegian government in exile. This over the decades since has become tradition. And now…

“felling a decades-old 20-metre (66ft) spruce in the woodlands near Oslo and transporting it by road and sea to Britain to light up Trafalgar Square, only for it to be turned into woodchip a month later, could hardly be described as environmentally friendly.

Now Anne Lindboe, the Norwegian capital’s recently elected Conservative mayor, says she is looking at ways of reducing the tree’s carbon footprint. As she touched down in London on Thursday….”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/06/trafalgar-square-christmas-tree-carbon-footprint-oslo-norway-uk

I dare say a lot of ‘Carbon footprint’ goes into her flight…

Rich Davis
Reply to  strativarius
December 7, 2023 3:50 am

The most depressing word of what you wrote there strativarius is ‘Conservative’. If conservative politicians are still bending the knee to Climastrology, what hope is there for climate realism or for actual conservatism?

strativarius
Reply to  Rich Davis
December 7, 2023 4:05 am

Well, Rich, it wasn’t my choice of terminology, I haven’t seen a true conservative since the early 1980s. They more or less died out when Major took over

In my patch at least, the centre ground seismically shifted way to the left so that anyone who is/was a centrist is now well to the right. Far right even.

Reply to  strativarius
December 7, 2023 5:09 am

That’s the problem with modern ‘conservatism’ – it has no fundamental belief system, e.g., limited government. As a result, it just gets dragged along to wherever the Left wants to go, albeit with a delay.

Gregory Woods
Reply to  Frank from NoVA
December 7, 2023 6:52 am

That’s why we have libertarians.

Richard Page
Reply to  Rich Davis
December 7, 2023 4:07 am

The Norwegian Conservative party is supposed to be a centre-right party but, like the UK Conservatives, have drifted more to the left as the opposition went far-left.

strativarius
Reply to  Richard Page
December 7, 2023 4:25 am

The EU – west of the Oder–Neisse line – is as woke, or whatever else you want to call it, as it gets.

You can find conservative type politicians to the east of that line. They are still rebounding from decades of communist rule.

sturmudgeon
Reply to  strativarius
December 7, 2023 4:28 pm

Thought-stimulating final sentence in your post.

Reply to  Rich Davis
December 7, 2023 7:00 pm

They’re conserving socialism and government power, obviously.

sciguy54
Reply to  strativarius
December 7, 2023 7:06 am

The ghosts of millions of trees cut down in the US, ground into pellets, and shipped to the UK for incineration within the bowels of DRAX have entered the conversation

wh
Reply to  strativarius
December 7, 2023 7:14 am

I agree. It only works in their favor. Barring exceptionally extreme cold, I never see reporting on colder than average temperatures anywhere. It’s always warmer than average conditions. Summer is always the peak of climate alarmism; despite it supposedly being the slowest warming season. Every year for the last 3 years since I started actually paying attention to climate change, there’s always the incessant reporting on how extremely hot and unprecented the modern day climate is. When you go and explore these, they are, more often than not and I dare say almost all the time, artifacts of poor station placement and/or maintenance. When you ask people from that area, they may say that while it was warmer than typical, it’s not unusual (big difference). They follow up citing years in the past that were much hotter than the present. Literally nobody I talk to says they see the climate emergency in their backyards.

gezza1298
Reply to  strativarius
December 7, 2023 7:29 am

Remember – only weather when it is cold, climate change when it is hot. Simple. At all times they are liars.

Duane
December 7, 2023 4:38 am

Heads I win, tails you lose.

strativarius
Reply to  Duane
December 7, 2023 5:00 am

Heads I win, tails you lose.

Which, funnily enough, translates to:

A Weasel Shiny Soul Idiot

December 7, 2023 4:40 am

I was stationed with the US Army in Munich from oct 56 to apr 59
I remember the snow falls in 58 and 59
Everything came to a halt.
We had to do a lot of shoveling by hand
No one thought about global warming
That mind-controlling craziness did not start until decades later

strativarius
Reply to  wilpost
December 7, 2023 4:55 am

One of my recollections of West Germany in the 1980s was the truly excellent US forces radio. They played great stuff and didn’t talk over it.

Reply to  strativarius
December 7, 2023 6:07 am

I remember those Pirate radio stations in Europe during the late 1960’s. Some of the stations were ships in international waters.

I remember hearing the Beatles’s “Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds” for the first time on my portable radio from a Pirate radio station, while I was pulling guard in Germany, in the middle of the night.

Reply to  strativarius
December 7, 2023 8:05 am

AFN was great, I often listened to in Berlin. I liked Wolfman Jack a lot.

Reply to  Krishna Gans
December 8, 2023 3:28 am

I remember Wolfman Jack. I used to listen to him late at night.

strativarius
December 7, 2023 5:35 am

Newsflash for Brits

BBC licence fee will rise from £159 to £169.50 next year

Greytide
Reply to  strativarius
December 7, 2023 5:50 am

A bit expensive for indoctrination….

Reply to  strativarius
December 7, 2023 10:39 am

Not mine, mate, I don’t have a license because I refuse to watch any of the so-called entertainment on live TV, especially the drivel from the BBC

Richard Page
Reply to  Redge
December 7, 2023 1:42 pm

Nor me.

sturmudgeon
Reply to  Redge
December 7, 2023 4:34 pm

We removed TV from our lives in 2003. Read a couple of hundred books back then… still more, now. I also spend a LOT of ‘larnin’ time at WUWT, The Treehouse, and some others. Love the ‘printed word’. Thanks.

December 7, 2023 5:47 am

I was in Germany in 1968, serving in the U.S. Army, and was sent out into the wilderness (Wildflicken) on a training mission where we pitched a tent to sleep in, and I woke up the next morning and there was about two feet of snow on the ground where there was none the day before.

We were camped out in the middle of nowhere at the time, and some German Special Forces troops took advantage of the situation to sneak up on our tent and surround it without us being aware of it. We were staying inside trying to keep warm and were not paying attention to anything going on outside.

The next morning, I was the first one out of the tent, and I walked outside and looked around at all the snow, and didn’t notice anything unusual, and then all of a sudden, I heard someone blow a whistle, and about a dozen men dressed so they blended in with the snow, stood up all around me and the tent and revealed themselves, which was certainly unexpected by me, so you can imagine my surprise.

And then commands were issued in German, and the men formed up into formation and marched off into the distance and disappeared! We found out later that they were German Special Forces troops on their own training mission.

That was my experience with snow in Germany. That and watching a M60 battle tank slide down the side of a Wildflicken mountain because the road was too icy for it to maintain traction.

Wildflicken was a NATO nuclear base, and an armor training area. The mission of the facility was to stop a Russian tank attack coming through the Fulda Gap.

wh
Reply to  Tom Abbott
December 7, 2023 6:04 am

Cool story, Mr. Gorman.

wh
Reply to  wh
December 7, 2023 7:05 am

Mr. Abbott*

altipueri
Reply to  Tom Abbott
December 7, 2023 8:17 am

On the off chance you like history games there is one called Flashpoint Campaigns that covers the Fulda Gap.

https://www.matrixgames.com/game/flashpoint-campaigns-red-storm-players-edition

I was in Rheindahlen HQ BAOR 1970-72 – half an inch of snow and the British Army was immobilised.

michael hart
Reply to  altipueri
December 7, 2023 9:00 am

“I was in Rheindahlen HQ BAOR 1970-72 – half an inch of snow and the British Army was immobilised.”

But of course they were.
The then British Rail is still famous for complaining that it was the wrong sort of snow that caused transport chaos some years ago.
Before that it used to be “leaves on the line”.

TBH, when I lived in Seattle the occasional arrival of snow caused the same degree of chaos in a place that is simply not accustomed to dealing with a real winter.

Reply to  altipueri
December 8, 2023 3:34 am

I’ll check that out. Thanks.

J Boles
December 7, 2023 8:08 am
Steve Oregon
December 7, 2023 8:57 am

Just like it’s 5 o’clock somewhere…..There’s always impressive weather somewhere.
The climate crusaders will never stop cherry picking something somewhere to feign deep climate concern. I bet it’s warmer than usual somewhere right now.

sturmudgeon
Reply to  Steve Oregon
December 7, 2023 4:41 pm

It has been, this past several days, in NE Washington State… soon to “change” again, beginning tomorrow.

Reply to  Steve Oregon
December 8, 2023 3:43 am

The whole central U.S. is “warmer than usual” according to the Fox News meteorologists.

I guess meteorologists have to emphasize warmer or colder than usual as talking points, although, so far, they have not connected any weather events to CO2. But the implication is there when they talk about “warmer than usual”.

The current “warmer than usual” for the central U.S. is caused by a high pressure system hovering over the central U.S. As long as it sits there, the temperatures will be warmer. But, as usual, it won’t sit there long.

We’ll get our cold snaps in the near future just like it happens every year.

Nothing to see here, folks. The weather is behaving the way it always does. CO2 has nothing to do with it.

Doug S
December 7, 2023 9:43 am

Is this the snow that children don’t know about?

taxed
December 7, 2023 9:57 am

We had are first snow of the winter here in North Lincolnshire England on November 30th.
Still no sign that global warming is delaying the timing of the first snow over the last 47 winter seasons.

sturmudgeon
Reply to  taxed
December 7, 2023 4:42 pm

Surely the climate alarmists will be able to pick one of those 47 to advance their cause.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  sturmudgeon
December 7, 2023 6:13 pm

They could also adjust the calendar and attack you for calling them out or just cancel you.

taxed
Reply to  sturmudgeon
December 8, 2023 5:44 am

Well they may liked to have claimed that the 2019-20 season was the shape of things to come. When we had the latest first snow on record since l have started keeping the data in 1977.
But sadly for them the winter season before that one had the second earlist first snow record.
Also the following 4 seasons after the 2019-20 season have all had there first snow dates around the 47 season average or slightly earlier.

December 7, 2023 10:25 am

“Germany’s recent heavy snowfalls in Munich, which surprised experts and media and sent them scrambling for an explanation”

Such is the nature of “experts” and their propagandists who seem oblivious to the laws of nature and a wealth of historical data, to always be surprised by things they predicted would never happen, but have happened repeatedly in the past, and to be ever searching for explanations of things that were well understood in the “pre-progressive” times of yore,

The Dark Lord
December 7, 2023 12:04 pm

millions and millions if not billions wasted on efforts to “model” (and forecast) the un-modelable … climate science is one big intellectual circle-j*rk … if nobody got paid to do it few would bother …

Mr.
December 7, 2023 12:23 pm

Climate researchers argued it was snowing more because it was getting colder in northern Europe despite global warming

Right up there with –

“These Are Not the Droids You Are Looking For” 

December 7, 2023 12:49 pm

Shows That Weather Surprises Us Again And Again

This did not surprise me. I forecast that snow records would follow the record September ocean surface temperature in the NH.

In fact my long term prediction is for new snow records to be a feature of weather reporting for the next 9,000 years.

Follow the sun – summers solstice sunlight at 44N:
http://vo.imcce.fr/webservices/miriade/proxy.php?file=http://145.238.217.34//tmp/insola/insolaoutKGVfzE&format=text

Warming of the NH oceans is only 500 years into a 10,000 year warming period.

Reply to  RickWill
December 7, 2023 1:45 pm

What does these numbers tell us ?

Reply to  Krishna Gans
December 7, 2023 4:30 pm

The link is the average solar intensity for the summer solstice at 44N measured in W/m^2 at 100 year intervals. The 000.0 corresponds with J2000.

This is an extract of the table from 1300AD to 2800AD:

-0.700  483.765085
   -0.600   483.749080
   -0.500   483.747110
   -0.400   483.758815
   -0.300   483.783833
   -0.200   483.821805
   -0.100   483.872381
    0.000   483.935226
    0.100   484.009261
    0.200   484.095137
    0.300   484.192610
    0.400   484.301428
    0.500   484.421334
    0.600   484.552061
    0.700   484.693340
    0.800   484.844902

Over those 1500 years, the intensity has/will lift 1.1W/m^2. In 9,000 years, it will top out at 505.29W/m^2. So it will increase 22W/m^2 over the 9,500 years bottom to top. 44N is the mid latitude with the highest daily solar intensity. It is higher than any lower Northern latitude with only the very high northern latitudes getting higher daily sunlight.

The only northern latitudes with higher peak daily intensity are much further north. North Pole gets 524.5W/m^2 on the summer solstice at the present time.

The change so far is quite small but the faster warming of the northern land mass accelerates the warming of the northern oceans because ocean to land advection in summer is slowing down. And no one has much idea of the thermal lags in the deep oceans although the water that went down into the abyss near Antarctica when Jesus was wearing short pants is only emerging now after its travels to the Arctic..

Climate models work on energy not solar intensity. So the precession cycle gets averaged out. The SH gets the same amount of energy as the northern hemisphere but iit gets that energy in 4 days leas than the NH. So the peak intensity is considerably higher in the SH. South Pole currently gets 559.2W/m^2 on the summer solstice. So 35W/m^2 up on what the NP gets now.

Reply to  RickWill
December 8, 2023 1:33 am

Thanks, I wasn’t aware of the numbers unity !
😀

Chris Hanley
December 7, 2023 1:49 pm

weather and climate are chaotic systems that are fundamentally unpredictable

Quite so notwithstanding that the NH annual snow cover data shows no overall trend since 1972.

Reply to  Chris Hanley
December 7, 2023 2:00 pm

There are other visualisations:

NH Winter
comment image

NH Fall
comment image

Bob
December 7, 2023 4:32 pm

Nice report. The CAGW crowd is desperate, they have nothing but anecdotal evidence and computer models and when we skeptics are rewarded sometimes when the anecdotal evidence squashes them.

Eamon Butler
December 7, 2023 4:39 pm

Who would have thought that one day, Summers would be warm and winters would be cold? Do I hear an ”unprecedented”

rah
December 7, 2023 6:09 pm

Like all other weather phenomena, the amount of snow in 2024 will not take into account any extremely simplified and under-complex computer modeling, but will surprise us again and again.

This layman has noticed a pattern over the years. The supposed know it all egg heads that claim to know what the weather will be years from now are frequently “surprised” by current weather events.

December 7, 2023 7:09 pm

“2. Humidity: warming leads to more snow”

This explains why our heaviest snowfalls here (Colorado) tend to be in autumn and spring. Plus, we’re pretty darn landlocked, in a rain shadow, and not downwind of a giant lake. But the point is valid: if the atmosphere warms up in the mid-latitudes so that there’s “more moisture”, at what point should it just all be plain old rain?

Ireneusz Palmowski
December 8, 2023 1:03 am

There will be no shortage of rain in Australia, both north and south.
comment image

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