Taking the well-established Community Atmosphere-Biosphere Land Exchange model (CABLE), the team accounted for three physiological factors: How efficiently CO2 moves within a leaf, how plants adjust to changes in environmental temperature, and how they distribute nutrients most economically. Using recent data and studies to build the model, the researchers then threw in the mix the variable of a strong climate-change scenario, to see how much CO2 plants would be taking out of the atmosphere through to the end of the century.
After repeating this experiment with eight versions of the model, the team found that the most complex version, which accounted for all three factors, predicted the most CO2 uptake, around 20% more than the simplest formula.
My thought is, that sense the HT H2O has stratified throughout the entire Stratosphere in both Hemispheres, if we see High Temp Summer records in the Southern Hemisphere, the North will see the same next summer. Eventually (2 more years) it will get broken down by UV and global temps will crash down to pre HT levels. But yes, it could cause a significant breach in the Polar Vortex, or it could stabilize it.
A beautiful science experiment nature has provided about the upper atmospheric radiative properties of rapid and un-precedented changes in water vapor content.
murrayv
December 4, 2023 12:17 pm
Re: Hunga Tonga
This is just a thought process, not an analysis.
Let’s start with the eruption in Jan 2022 throwing an unprecedented 150 million tons of water as water vapor (WV) into the stratosphere, and increasing levels to 13% above normal. Given that atmospheric/stratospheric water vapor is by far the strongest greenhouse gas and accounts for about 98% of the total worlds greenhouse effect, and given that the Jan injection had been distributed world-wide by March, one would have expected to see significant warming in eg the UAH temp record in Q2 2022, but that didn’t happen. One can surmise that, with the sun in a very low activity state, heat that was blocked by the stratospheric WV was dissipated by evaporation at the sea surface, and cloud formation blocked incoming heat due to elevated levels of cosmic rays. It seems that that atmospheric WV may have continued to accumulate until late 2022, resulting in far above normal rainfall in Southern Australia and southwestern USA (mainly California) through Q1 2023.
Then in Q1 2023 the sun went back into an active state, spiking in May 2023. The Oulu monitor showed a sharp drop in cosmic rays in Dec. 2022, followed by a larger drop in late March/early April 2023. This could have resulted in a major decline in cloud cover, a major increase in sunlight reaching the surface and a resulting rapid rise in surface temperature, as illustrated by Ryan Maue. Both sea and land temperatures rose to levels unprecedented in the modern period. Elevated temperatures persisted through summer and into fall 2023.
Now, recently, solar activity is dropping rapidly, implying a rise in cosmic rays and widespread increase in cloud cover. Over the last 3 months we have seen major and sometimes prolonged precipitation events leading to local, frequently unprecedented, flooding world-wide eg Libya, New England, NE France, the Philippines, Brazil, Afghanistan, most of Africa, etc. It seems that the excess atmospheric WV will have largely dissipated very soon and temperatures may rapidly return to normal. In fact we are seeing incidents of at least brief, unprecedented cold in many places, early snowfall in the Alps and the Rockies, and Russia 80% covered by snow, and unusual cold throughout Scandinavia in late Nov.
I have left El Nino out of all of this. Curiously there is some evidence that major volcanic events in the tropics trigger El Ninos about a year after the eruption, usually ascribed to atmospheric cooling from the volcanic aerosols. Hunga Tonga does not fit that description, but was very major, and has been followed by an El Nino. Strange. El Ninos transport heat from low to high latitudes, and result in further cooling, so 2024 could see significant cooling.
Whither next? – Also, solar cycles usually show spikes of activity 30 – 40 months after commencement, and that spike may or may not be followed by a higher one. This cycle 25 spike peaked 37 months after start. Given that the solar system barycenter (SSB) has switched from moving away from the solar center to moving nearer the solar center during 2022 (mass effect going from pull to push?) this spike might be the only one in cycle 25, and we are likely to be into a prolonged cooling period during the next 3 cycles. At least one scientist has forecast another “little ice age”, but that seems very unlikely given that the current Eddy cycle is nearing its warm peak, and the Bray cycle (see Andy May’s recent posting) is well off the bottom. Both were near bottom for the recent little ice age.
1 comment – “Spencer and Christy of UAH looked into the effects of the Hunga Tonga eruption on lower troposphere temperatures and concluded that its effects were likely to be minor – in the region of 1/100ths of a degree C. They published this in one of their monthly updates and haven’t commented on it since”.
My reply – By itself the event seems to have had a minor effect on temp as they concluded – but it set the stage through a prolonged increase in atmospheric WV to amplify the impact of a change in solar activity. It is the unlikely chain of events that matters. Spencer and Christy may not have yet connected the dots.
The recent record setting UAH global temp anomaly is absolutely because of HT, No way this El-Nino could have caused that, what else could it be? Why is Antarctica setting a record the 2nd year in a row, its not El-Nino, this one is nothing compared to recent ones. Blobs of water Vapor running 20 – 200% higher than average around the Stratosphere is not something one can get data for, so this is not a back of the napkin calculation, so anyone who makes a claim that the HT H2O could not have caused much warming, without any evidence, may as well be whistling dixie.
Story tip – The Times today reports ‘Scientists highlight risk to planet from 26 tipping points’.
The tipping point is one of the most prevalent themes of climate change dogmatism – OK, things don’t appear too bad now but a small change in THIS will lead to VERY BAD THINGS INDEED.
A question about one of them – you know when someone asks you about something and you give the same answer you always give and then you think ‘is that right?’ So is the following right?
Re melting the Antarctic ice sheet (one of the 26 tipping points) – I have always said – this ice sheet has 10 times the thermal mass of the atmosphere (5 times the mass, twice the specific heat capacity). So, if we found a way of taking all the heat in the atmosphere that has warmed it by a bit over a degree in the last 170 years and put it into the Antarctic ice sheet, it would warm it by about 0.1 degC, so from about -53degC to maybe -52.9degC. So, unlikely to melt. A simplistic argument but is this about right?
Taking the well-established Community Atmosphere-Biosphere Land Exchange model (CABLE), the team accounted for three physiological factors: How efficiently CO2 moves within a leaf, how plants adjust to changes in environmental temperature, and how they distribute nutrients most economically. Using recent data and studies to build the model, the researchers then threw in the mix the variable of a strong climate-change scenario, to see how much CO2 plants would be taking out of the atmosphere through to the end of the century.
After repeating this experiment with eight versions of the model, the team found that the most complex version, which accounted for all three factors, predicted the most CO2 uptake, around 20% more than the simplest formula.
https://newatlas.com/biology/plants-absorb-more-co2/
I was told that “The Science Is Settled”
High pressure over Iceland guarantees frost and snow in Europe.
Weather in Oymyakon, Russia
Now parts of the Southern Hemisphere will get to experience a real Hunga Tonga summer.
-30 Stratospheric Water Vapor Aura MLS
mls_h2o_qbo_profile_30S.png (1926×1394) (nasa.gov)
The Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) (nasa.gov)
This means a high probability of a sudden warming of the stratosphere in the north, I suppose it could happen in late December.
My thought is, that sense the HT H2O has stratified throughout the entire Stratosphere in both Hemispheres, if we see High Temp Summer records in the Southern Hemisphere, the North will see the same next summer. Eventually (2 more years) it will get broken down by UV and global temps will crash down to pre HT levels. But yes, it could cause a significant breach in the Polar Vortex, or it could stabilize it.
A beautiful science experiment nature has provided about the upper atmospheric radiative properties of rapid and un-precedented changes in water vapor content.
Re: Hunga Tonga
This is just a thought process, not an analysis.
Let’s start with the eruption in Jan 2022 throwing an unprecedented 150 million tons of water as water vapor (WV) into the stratosphere, and increasing levels to 13% above normal. Given that atmospheric/stratospheric water vapor is by far the strongest greenhouse gas and accounts for about 98% of the total worlds greenhouse effect, and given that the Jan injection had been distributed world-wide by March, one would have expected to see significant warming in eg the UAH temp record in Q2 2022, but that didn’t happen. One can surmise that, with the sun in a very low activity state, heat that was blocked by the stratospheric WV was dissipated by evaporation at the sea surface, and cloud formation blocked incoming heat due to elevated levels of cosmic rays. It seems that that atmospheric WV may have continued to accumulate until late 2022, resulting in far above normal rainfall in Southern Australia and southwestern USA (mainly California) through Q1 2023.
Then in Q1 2023 the sun went back into an active state, spiking in May 2023. The Oulu monitor showed a sharp drop in cosmic rays in Dec. 2022, followed by a larger drop in late March/early April 2023. This could have resulted in a major decline in cloud cover, a major increase in sunlight reaching the surface and a resulting rapid rise in surface temperature, as illustrated by Ryan Maue. Both sea and land temperatures rose to levels unprecedented in the modern period. Elevated temperatures persisted through summer and into fall 2023.
Now, recently, solar activity is dropping rapidly, implying a rise in cosmic rays and widespread increase in cloud cover. Over the last 3 months we have seen major and sometimes prolonged precipitation events leading to local, frequently unprecedented, flooding world-wide eg Libya, New England, NE France, the Philippines, Brazil, Afghanistan, most of Africa, etc. It seems that the excess atmospheric WV will have largely dissipated very soon and temperatures may rapidly return to normal. In fact we are seeing incidents of at least brief, unprecedented cold in many places, early snowfall in the Alps and the Rockies, and Russia 80% covered by snow, and unusual cold throughout Scandinavia in late Nov.
I have left El Nino out of all of this. Curiously there is some evidence that major volcanic events in the tropics trigger El Ninos about a year after the eruption, usually ascribed to atmospheric cooling from the volcanic aerosols. Hunga Tonga does not fit that description, but was very major, and has been followed by an El Nino. Strange. El Ninos transport heat from low to high latitudes, and result in further cooling, so 2024 could see significant cooling.
Whither next? – Also, solar cycles usually show spikes of activity 30 – 40 months after commencement, and that spike may or may not be followed by a higher one. This cycle 25 spike peaked 37 months after start. Given that the solar system barycenter (SSB) has switched from moving away from the solar center to moving nearer the solar center during 2022 (mass effect going from pull to push?) this spike might be the only one in cycle 25, and we are likely to be into a prolonged cooling period during the next 3 cycles. At least one scientist has forecast another “little ice age”, but that seems very unlikely given that the current Eddy cycle is nearing its warm peak, and the Bray cycle (see Andy May’s recent posting) is well off the bottom. Both were near bottom for the recent little ice age.
1 comment – “Spencer and Christy of UAH looked into the effects of the Hunga Tonga eruption on lower troposphere temperatures and concluded that its effects were likely to be minor – in the region of 1/100ths of a degree C. They published this in one of their monthly updates and haven’t commented on it since”.
My reply – By itself the event seems to have had a minor effect on temp as they concluded – but it set the stage through a prolonged increase in atmospheric WV to amplify the impact of a change in solar activity. It is the unlikely chain of events that matters. Spencer and Christy may not have yet connected the dots.
The recent record setting UAH global temp anomaly is absolutely because of HT, No way this El-Nino could have caused that, what else could it be? Why is Antarctica setting a record the 2nd year in a row, its not El-Nino, this one is nothing compared to recent ones. Blobs of water Vapor running 20 – 200% higher than average around the Stratosphere is not something one can get data for, so this is not a back of the napkin calculation, so anyone who makes a claim that the HT H2O could not have caused much warming, without any evidence, may as well be whistling dixie.
A strong stratospheric blockage over the Bering Sea (here at 500 hPa in the troposphere) will draw a cold front to the west coast of North America, with heavy rain on the coast and snow in the mountains.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2023/12/06/2000Z/wind/isobaric/500hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-128.14,57.66,888
Story tip – The Times today reports ‘Scientists highlight risk to planet from 26 tipping points’.
The tipping point is one of the most prevalent themes of climate change dogmatism – OK, things don’t appear too bad now but a small change in THIS will lead to VERY BAD THINGS INDEED.
A question about one of them – you know when someone asks you about something and you give the same answer you always give and then you think ‘is that right?’ So is the following right?
Re melting the Antarctic ice sheet (one of the 26 tipping points) – I have always said – this ice sheet has 10 times the thermal mass of the atmosphere (5 times the mass, twice the specific heat capacity). So, if we found a way of taking all the heat in the atmosphere that has warmed it by a bit over a degree in the last 170 years and put it into the Antarctic ice sheet, it would warm it by about 0.1 degC, so from about -53degC to maybe -52.9degC. So, unlikely to melt. A simplistic argument but is this about right?