Do we think there is any signs of the climate catastrophe cult wearing thin amongst the populace? I’m seeing increasing evidence of green shoots (feed by co2 of course) of reason and reality starting to take root relating to the west’s madness of nut-zero, and all related climate voodoo..
I think the populace is generally ignorant of the seriousness of this issue and works to ignore it, as with all intense political issues. The demographics of belief may well be changing but that is a complex scientific question.
“Study: Cost of ‘fueling’ an electric vehicle is equivalent to $17.33 per gallon”
They look at all the subsidies etc, and conclude that if others weren’t paying most of their costs then this is what EV owners would be paying.
I’m not seeing many green shoots in the UK. The PM ditching some of the green goofiness is explainable as a last-ditch attempt to minimize Tory losses in the looming general election. A leader anticipating victory would be occupying to the centre ground, which teems with climate bed-wetters unfortunately.
The ones round here in the UK refuse to stop growing too much for some of the surrounding houses. The lawn is also starting to annoy me.
Yes, it is anecdotal evidence, but I would still go long on companies selling lawnmowers and chainsaws.
(That is, of course, climate advice, not financial advice.)
I see zero green shoots here in Wokeachusetts. But there are some new ideas. The greens no longer want wind turbines on land but they love them at sea. And they’re now fighting against deforestation for solar “farms”. Instead, they propose putting solar on every roof and on parking lots- thinking that will be sufficient for net zero. And, resistance is now building against installing industrial scale battery systems. I don’t see these tactical changes as green shoots since they all still believe in net zero nirvana.
Even if there were “solar on every rooftop”, that’s not enough solar. When you do the math, there’s not enough panel area on a rooftop to supply power to just the household under it, much less to the power grid. That’s even assuming there’s enough self-immolating batteries to get it through the winter. Keep in mind that it’s not just the current electric bill, but also heating and EV charging.
Exactly. In fact, the first climate czar here – several years ago- admitted that- but he got fired after going on a webinar with only climate zeolots (in VT) where he admitted that the states will have to really beat on the civilians to slash their energy- especially old folks! He was fired the next day. He also said that covering all the roofs (most aren’t south facing or sturdy enough for solar)- hundreds of thousands of acres of forest would have to be destroyed for solar “farms”. Yuh, they fired him real fast for telling the truth. I posted a comment in WUWT on that- which was then picked up by one of the editors into a full essay. I don’t have the link but probably could find it.
OK, found it. 3 years ago- seems long, thanks to the Covid nightmare.
Yes Joseph, I see your point, but as the avenues start closing for wind and solar and also hydro, to get enough power generation to do all the tech things we enjoy in life, people will demand more reliability at reasonable cost, as they are ultimately paying for it. Thus, we will just have to go back to centralized power generation at scale, which means coal, gas or nuclear, until something better comes along.
As the pain of the climate `solutions’ i.e. Net Zero increases across the Western world, it’s the people who will demand sensible solutions from their politicians, who will then look to science for answers. It is to be hoped that the science establishment will then disown climate alarmism, admit their uncertainties about any really dangerous future, and so we can back to normal life before this environmental madness claimed our leaders.
Unfortunately it doesn’t always focus their minds on the cause of their miseries.
The cause of their miseries is partly government “green” policies that wilfully force expensive, unreliable energy costs on them.
They get angry at the government for increased taxes, inflation, and a lower standard of living. But they don’t don’t understand that expensive energy affects everything, repeat everything, in their lives.
They then go out and vote for the opposition who will give them more of the same, if not worse, while concurrently promising to save the planet from global boiling.
Maybe it’s unwise to take on Einstein, but to my mind that definition of insanity is a perfect fit to learning to play a musical instrument. I’ll drink a toast to those insane ones – they enrich all our lives.
Trudeau’s handlers have realized that in many vote-rich areas (for them), the words “carbon tax” are usually uttered with along with expletives.
Ireneusz Palmowski
October 29, 2023 2:41 am
The highs in the north clearly indicate that the western circulation has stopped in the polar vortex. These highs are pushing the lows further south. If solar activity remains as low as it is now, the inhibition of circulation may continue.
Yes and no..
There’s certainly an epic High sitting on Arctica but the Lows are sat on Ireland, UK, Western France because:
It rained there recently, on warm ground, heated by the low albedo dirt farmers created doing both harvesting and planting. The lows will be reluctant to move.
The air lifted by those systems is given a perfect ‘drain’ onto either/both Europe and ‘places north of Iceland’ – further reinforcing that reluctance.
Both Metoeblue and UK Met Office right-now show an anticyclone planted very firmly on Ireland and going nowhere until Weds at least when it starts to fill and drift north-west.
For England/UK this is Bad News, it’s pulling a strong (easterly) air-stream off Scandinavia which will be very cold going into next week. But dry and sunny.
The beginning: “Like Galileo I have two new sciences, not that I am in his league. His were the statics (structure) and dynamics of physical stuff. Mine are the structure and dynamics of complex issues. This is explained briefly below.
The dynamics is about a highly nonlinear information flow that I call an issue storm, which I discovered about 40 years ago but never wrote about because I was making lots of money knowing about it. The science involves mapping and measuring issue storms over time. It also includes prediction to the extent feasible. Like physical storms, issue storms tend to be somewhat unpredictable.
To begin with, we need what I call looping. If A communicates to B and B replies to A, that is a single loop. When a major issue arises in an organization, or community, or country, or globally, there can be a tremendous amount of looping.
Most importantly, this evolving body of looping will have a specific pattern, which will vary from case to case. Imagine if you could just look down in the dark and see all the email traffic as an issue breaks, grows, and spreads, with each email as a streak of light. You could see the pattern, including how it changes over time.”
The end: “The deep problem is that while work (and life) has increasingly become issue-driven, we simply do not have the tools to manage the issue storms that buffet us. We do not even have the concepts and language to talk about these things, but I have made a small start. Different issue storms and issue trees have specific natures, consume specific resources, and evolve in specific ways. If we cannot even describe these features, then we certainly cannot manage them. This is a research project in waiting.
But at least we can understand that issue storms and issue trees are there, and we are in them. There is science here to be done and applied. Take time from engaging in an issue to study the critter itself. Above all, stay calm. Rise above the storm.”
Lots in between including stuff to measure. We are heavily into issue storms here at WUWT, right? Fighting and fanning them is what we do.
The NSA is monitoring issue storms, who is communicating with whom. They know quite a lot about each who and whom. That means patterns between various who s and whom s are predictable from issue to issue.
The next step is to somehow manage and direct the communications into desirable directions, by various hindrances, such cancelling accounts, controlling access to certain information, blacklisting
Snowdon, now on forced exile in Moscow, blew the whistle on all that, way before the general public had any idea what he was talking about.
That deep state powers took advantage of that ignorance, branded him a spy, to be “put away for life”, whereas, he was a truth revealer.
There is certainly some predictability. If there is a big EV fire we will hear about it and spread the word. How to first describe and measure this activity is the first scientific question. I doubt NSA is addressing that.
BY TYLER DURDEN Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com, Where were you on March 9, 2022, when President Biden signed the death warrant on American freedom?
On that day, in a hushed ceremony at the White House without the approval of Congress, the states or the American people, Biden signed into law Executive Order 14067.
Buried in his order are a few paragraphs, titled Section 4. The language in Section 4 makes Order 14067 the most treacherous act by a sitting president in the history of our republic.
That’s because Section 4 sets the stage for legal government surveillance of all U.S. citizens, total control over your bank accounts and purchases and the ability to silence all dissenting voices for good.
In this new war on freedom, they aren’t coming for your guns. No, they’re thinking much bigger than that. They’re coming for your money.
I’m not convinced that it has little do do with your ideas. The point is that issue storms can be started for a purpose, which may be to provide a smoke-screen or to provide backing. The whole of mainstream climate ‘science’ for example is to provide backing for the elimination of democracy. Isn’t what wilpost posted just the latest scary step in the process?
Snowden, Assange – yes, both truth revealers. In a perfect world, they wouldn’t have anything to do. In an imperfect world it gets tricky.
Thomas Sowell: “There are no solutions. There are only trade-offs.”.
It’s OK to blow the whistle in a way that uncovers untoward authority, if it benefits the people. Did Snowden and Assange do that or did they overdo it and actually harm people? (That’s a question not an answer).
It’s like Bastiat’s seen and the unseen (or like weather and climate). You see the issue storm but you don’t see the long march through the institutions.
strativarius
October 29, 2023 2:56 am
More angst in today’s Observer – aka Sunday Guardian
A public statement signed by more than 1,000 scientists in support of meat production and consumption has numerous links to the livestock industry, the Guardian can reveal. The statement has been used to target top EU officials against environmental and health policies and has been endorsed by the EU agriculture commissioner.
The “Dublin Declaration of Scientists on the Societal Role of Livestock” says livestock “are too precious to society to become the victim of simplification, reductionism or zealotry” and calls for a “balanced view of the future of animal agriculture”. One of the authors of the declaration is an economist who called veganism an “eating disorder requiring psychological treatment”. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/27/revealed-industry-figures-declaration-scientists-backing-meat-eating
Maybe we can supplement our income, currently dominated by our Big Fossil payoffs by also collecting from Big Meat? Not that it will do me any good. Apparently someone has stolen my identity and all the Big Oil payments I was promised for being a skeptical commenter on WUWT have disappeared into the internet somewhere. I haven’t seen a penny.
The “axis of evil”, Russia/China/Iran, etc.,, happily will continue to eat meat, as they have always done, while the woke West will be feasting on various insects.
This likely will not affect the lucrative business of “fine dining” in Europe, because the well off, including future well off tourists, would never give up a juicy steak, if the alternative is insects
One of my favourite foods is vegan – beef. Does that make me sort of vegan? A friend told me she bought some cricket powder for coating food. I pointed out that ground crickets look a lot like ground cockroaches. Friendships can be so fragile.
It does have it’s merits. Prior to pressing the submit button I used to routinely paste my comment into a word processor file for saving and spell check it. This also allowed me to spot other errors.
I’ll admit to having become lazy, just re-reading my comment after posting, thinking I could edit it if necessary.
Michael,
But the trap still managed to get you. Your 4th word, “it’s” should be without apostrophe. My spell checker, maybe the biggest one, inserts it wrongly.
The checker designers must know this is wrong, yet they have persisted with wrong for years.
Deliberate wrong makes me align with Dr Wojick who is researching a rather important topic.
What I find hard to understand is the reason why so many foot soldiers rush ignorantly to support reduction of their own living standards. We used to be leaders of beneficial societal change. Now, hordes of us do what they are told to do, with relish, like the spell check workers who won’t fix wrong.
Geoff S
Yes, those darn pronouns cause lots of problems. And that was before this gender identity nonsense. The three “theres” are commonly misused–not to mention the two “yours.” A common error of mine is leaving the “r” off of “your.” I’ve stopped being a grammar policeman. Usually in correcting someone’s error, I introduce several of my own–it’s very embarrassing..
Coeur de Lion
October 29, 2023 3:20 am
Would it not be possible to excite some young aggressive journalist into making his name and career by getting some science about carbon dioxide’s lack of influence on the weather into the mainstream media? There’s plenty to work with. He may need a fluency with words and a low rat-like cunning. This would collapse the scam of course and ruin a lot of undeserving people.
Yup. Currently career suicide.
It needs someone courageous who knows what they are getting into.
The most well known objectors in science have been tenured academics who can’t be fired.
Even they suffer from being excluded from funding, ending much of their research.
I think it was Judith Curry who did the honourable thing and stopped taking students before she quit, knowing that being a student of hers had now become a Sword of Damocles above her student’s later career prospects in current academia.
We may have to wait for the next generation of the able minded to reach positions where they feel brave enough to challenge the orthodoxy.
Fortunately you can at least always rely on some younger people to get a bit obstreperous.
Coeur,
My Aussie mate Tony Thomas often writes strongly about defects of Establishment climate change for Quadrant, a respected current affairs journal. He is not “some young expressive journalist”, but a senior, highly-credentialled journalist who is having difficulty getting his writing before the average reader. So what hope for a young greenhorn?
Geoff S
Ron Long
October 29, 2023 3:33 am
The Liberal Press (sorry, that’s redundant) is always finding “Scientists” to quote, regarding the various aspects of Anthropogenic Climate Change. My Graduate School courses included Philosophy of Science, taught by Professor Bill Taubeneck, who was utilized in several important trials as a person qualified to verify the Scientific Process. Then, working as a Temporary Geologist for Bear Creek Mining, the exploration subsidiary of Kennecott, I got another dose of Scientific Process. The geologists who would study (map, sample, analyze data, write a report) a prospect and recommend a drill program, defended their report in front of the assembled geologists in a several hour process. The Process often came close to an Inquisition, but the final product was truly “peer reviewed”. Where is the open meeting of qualified Scientists in such a forum? A forum where data is subject to verification, alternative interpretation, rejection or acceptance, and a consensus sought? Sort of a Scopes Monkey Trial live on TV? waiting…waiting….
“defended their report in front of the assembled geologists in a several hour process”
Makes perfect sense. Lots of money involved. This process makes all responsible.
“Where is the open meeting of qualified Scientists in such a forum?”
They’re too cowardly for such a system.
As I noted in another post in this thread- the state of Wokeachusetts now has a plan to save the planet. In that plan they make absurd statements- like the sea will rise 2.5′ by 2050 and the temperature will rise 5.9 to 7.9 F by 2050. Here, in the state with MIT and other technically advanced colleges! A one party state- 95% of state reps are Dems. Most top state leadership jobs are now held by feminists and climate alarmists. There no longer is a civil service system so getting and keeping state jobs is pure politics: nepotism, cronyism, affirmative action on steroids. It’s a loony bin (my appolgies to people with mental health problems). The media is 100% onboard with the climate emergency zealotry. I suspect if anyone speaks up publicly against that zealotry they’ll be burned at the stake.
Martha’s Vineyard is not easy to get to. And it’s a very wealthy island. No “commoners” living there. The plumbers, electricians, roofers, carpenters have to fly in or take the ferry for day jobs there. Certainly no illegal immigrants there. And it’s close to Bah-stin with its ultra liberal “intelligentsia” that will always be friendly to them. They don’t want any green energy on the island- other than rooftop solar. Not sure but I don’t think the Obama mansion has rooftop solar. Mansions look less elegant with solar on the roof. I googled “electricity on Martha’s Vineyard” and got:
Martha’s Vineyard’s primary source electrical power comes through four 23-kV subsea cables that connect the island to the mainland. The island is also is served by five 2.5 MW diesel generators owned and operated by NRG Canal, although Eversource is responsible for their maintenance.
The people (persons unknown) who allegedly blew up the Nordstream pipeline could find gainful employment cutting power cables for entitled enclaves like that.
Well, if that happened, those elites will have the pleasure of getting some power from those diesel generators- though they’ll feel very, very guilty. 🙂
The 97% of scientists are the woke part, looking for the job security of tenure, or working for a government entity, or a government-sponsored NGO, not adhering to the scientific method.
The other 3% are the movers and shakers scientists, who get all the Nobel prices and other such awards, because they do adhere to the scientific method
Many are, regretfully, just better than me.
I like to think that more are worse. But many of them are better than me when it came to making a career out of it.
Then, there are the people who make the real leaps. We learn their ideas and thinking in the textbooks and papers that get referenced and re-printed for many decades.
It is probably the same in all other fields of human endeavour.
Except it’s not really “97%”.
That’s just a flawed and deceitful STATISTICAL construct.
Along the lines of Mann’s Hockey stick.
And along the lines that a few “protesters” represent the majority.
The MSM have just given the few a megaphone.
Same in the oil business where I spent my entire career. We had to withstand a technical and economic grilling to justify a management sign-off on the project whether an oil field development, a lease application, or a decision to open exploration in a particular play or basin. And rightly so. Like you I see a marked absence of such process in the Net Zero field or in gubmint generally.
Yes, we geologists and engineers live in the `school of hard knocks’ where if we are not right, our bosses lose money and we are sacked- simple as that. So, we have to do our homework properly, find a solution and action it. Thus, we in general do not see any climate problem with the global data presented, except for the fudged homogenized temperature data used by entities like NOAA and BoM to claim global warming hysteria.
From the executive summary- I extracted the following lunacy and underlined some in yellow. Nobody and I mean NOBODY in this state challenges it. I probably will but I’ve been challenging the state for 50 years and I’m always ignored. I was canceled 50 years ago.
Unfortunately, the climate emergency disease has already metastasized across much of America. If I was wealthy I’d move to Tuscany. That’s my idea of retirement. Have my rocking chair under my olive and fig trees- close to the vineyard and big table where I’d eat spagehtti and pizza with local wine every day (like you see in every Italian movie) – we’d invite the neighors over and sing and dance. Well, I can dream. Meanwhile, after a weak of nicer than typical weather due to the “emergency”, we’re now going to slide into several months of typical shitty New England weather- cold and damp. Maybe the rest of the world is boiling, but not here! Good thing I recently installed a new oil furnace and I have a fairly new Toyota Rav4 so I won’t have to worry about being forced to buy a heat pump or EV. Not at 74, I won’t.
If I could retire there I wouldn’t even want a car. I’ve been a serious bicyclist all my life. I’d bring over my mountain bike. Biking has always been my second favorite activity. 🙂
The Equitable and Just National Climate Platform advances the goals of economic, racial, climate, and environmental justice to improve the public health and well-being of all communities, while tackling the climate crisis. Environmental justice advocates and national environmental organizations have committed to advocate this historic, bold platform that lays out our shared vision and goals, including:
A healthy climate and air quality for all
Access to reliable, affordable, and sustainable electricity, water, and transportation for every community
An inclusive, just, and pollution-free energy economy with high- quality jobs
Safe, healthy communities and infrastructure
They’re not only gonna save the planet but they’ll perfect all of society! And cheap energy too! No pollution! High quality jobs! Paradise on Earth! You just gotta have the faith!
That’s not all.
Take a look at the following article to the one referenced above. Quote:
” Along with Yeo Valley Organic [that says it all], Wong spoke to GB News about the health benefits of a new trend sweeping social media called “grounding” in which exposure to soil and the earth around us can provide health benefits.
Explaining the details of “grounding”, something that’s been endorsed by A-listers such as Gwyneth Paltrow and Emma Watson, Wong explained: “There’s this idea that, for example, walking around barefoot connects you directly to the earth and as a result, there are a surprising amount of mental and physical health benefits.
“People will talk about improved immune systems, for example, they may even talk about reduced inflammation.””
Maybe it’s just the walking that benefits you?
But near where I live it just might, bizarrely, benefit even more. Not only does slow, careful, conscious, placement of the feet strengthen the mind-limb neural connections, it also helps avoid the broken glass that would cut your bare feet. The shift from evil plastics seems to have made this problem worse.
I expect Gwyneth Paltrow doesn’t have that problem on her estate.
It’s the BBC’s idea of impartiality. They decide the issues, they decide what is news and they decide how it’s discussed. Arrogant and entitled prat’s who think they are above such petty ideas as truth and impartiality. Time to defund them and let them survive as fully commercial corporation.
One way to expose the core error of the global warming movement is through the scientific basis of numerical weather prediction, and how atmospheric modeling addresses the forms of energy long understood to be involved.
“Of the various form of energy present in the atmosphere, kinetic energy has often received the most attention. Often the total kinetic energy of a weather system is regarded as a measure of its intensity. The only other forms of atmospheric energy which appear to play a major role in the kinetic energy budget of the troposphere and lower stratosphere are potential energy, internal energy, and the latent energy of water vapor. Potential and internal energy may be transformed directly into kinetic energy, while latent energy may be transformed directly into internal energy, which is then transformed into kinetic energy. It is easily shown by means of the hydrostatic approximation that the changes of the potential energy P and the internal energy l of the whole atmosphere are approximately proportional, so that it is convenient to regard potential and internal energy as constituting a single form of energy.”
So what? The two-way conversion between kinetic energy and internal+potential energy is computed as one of the hourly parameters in the ERA5 reanalysis product of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts).
So what? The conversion of energy between kinetic and internal+potential experienced in the atmosphere is hundreds to thousands of times greater than the ~4 W/m^2 incremental static “warming” effect of a doubling of CO2. In both directions.
So what? This means:
The effect of increasing the IR absorbing effectiveness of the clear atmosphere is not just “warming” per se but also expansion (altitude/potential energy) and motion (kinetic energy.)
The effect of incremental GHGs such as CO2 cannot be isolated for reliable attribution of a reported warming trend on land and in the oceans.
As an illustration, here is a plot of the minimum, median, and maximum ERA5 “vertical integral of energy conversion” for just one day for all longitudes at 45N latitude.
I aim to develop a more comprehensive post about all this, with a more effective graphic demonstration.
The irony is that it can be from atmospheric models that the core error of CAGW is more clearly understood. That error is to have assumed that heat energy (internal) MUST accumulate in the atmosphere, and then on land and in the oceans from what incremental GHGs do.
The accounting of energy through these reservoirs is a direct consequence of the temperature minimum (or entropy maximum) principles of nature. One must not truly “believe” in the fundamental thermodynamic laws of nature to suppose that the atmosphere can warm more than an initial IR Force would prescribe. It can only warm less.
The unavoidable conclusion is that, supposing temperature really is rising more than it should, something else must be going on. Shining the light exclusively on IR gas perturbation is unlikely to reveal what is really happening.
Here is the end of a commercial that has been running on television for the last few months:
“Congress needs to protect our Democratic values. Call Congress and tell them to Stengthen American Technology.”
Paid for by American Edge Project
I would say this advertisement is a waste of money.
What do they mean by “Strengthen American Technology”?
You call up your congresscritter and tell him to strengthen American technology, and the first thing he’s going to ask you is: What, exactly, are you talking about? And you won’t know because the advertisement gives no clue as to what that means. So nobody is going to make this call.
Check out the ‘American Edge Project’ first and you might not want to make that call. I think the advert is meant to sucker you in to their website to see what they’re about, then through misinformation and dishonest statements, get donations. I doubt if Zuckerberg and Facebook are fully funding them any more.
Political campaigns calling for “change”, without specifics are to be ignored as well. And “support your local police”. How would one “unsupport them”?
‘It has already begun’: Senate sounds off on climate disruption to supply chains
With droughts and heat waves affecting crops and shipping routes this year, the budget committee looked at the rising costs extreme weather will have on supply lines.
“Climate change is already disrupting supply chains and will only get worse, which will ultimately lead to higher costs to consumers, businesses and governments
.
The looming crisis was the subject of a U.S. Senate committee hearing on Wednesday titled “Bottlenecks and Backlogs: How Climate Change Threatens Supply Chains” held by the budget committee.
Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, a Democrat from Rhode Island and the committee’s chairman, pointed to how the COVID-19 pandemic “laid bare fragilities” in the global supply chain system.
“Just as the pandemic wreaked havoc throughout our supply chains, climate change is poised to do the same, only likely much more frequently,” Whitehouse said. “In fact, it has already begun.”
The lawmaker cited estimates from the climate disclosure nonprofit CDP that disruptions from global warming on supply chains would cost companies $120 billion by 2026.
Whitehouse also brought up droughts, heat waves and other climate-related events that have recently affected olive oil production in Spain and cocoa harvests. Such events could impact mining infrastructure for minerals like gold, iron ore and zinc, which could see production affected by water shortages. He also invoked droughts that have slowed shipping on the Panama Canal and Mississippi River this year.”
end excerpt
More lying about the climate from Senator Whitehouse. He thinks weather is climate. He apparently doesn’t know that the weather today is no worse than it was in the past because he keeps claiming it is worse today. The Evidence, and there *is* historical evidence, says weather is not worse today than in the past.
Looks interesting; at least these people used actual observations rather than computer models. Chances are that the reduction will be of very short term duration and ozone will be at completely normal levels in a few months – we wouldn’t have an ozone layer if it kept losing O3 and not replacing it.
Most ozone production occurs in the tropics and moves polewards in the Brewer-Dobson Circulation cells. After the Circumpolar Vortex forms in the Winter, it blocks the ozone from entering the Antarctic Stratosphere. Shortly after the vortex breaks up in the Austral Spring, ozone levels are usually back to normal.
The latest map that I saw showed the Antarctic ‘hole’ to be typical, with anomalous high concentrations outside the Circumpolar Vortex. The only real difference was that the ‘hole’ started to form about a month early this year and ended up being among the greatest extent in area and low concentrations of ozone. It appears to be localized.
“The interviews revealed that language describing climate change as a crisis and an urgent threat was met with suspicion by many participants. The disconnect between crisis rhetoric and the participants’ own beliefs and experiences drove doubt about the motivations of the people making these claims, sowing suspicion and deeper mistrust.
Interviewees widely rejected the national news media as a credible source for climate information. They see these outlets as presenting information that suits their own agendas. Interviewees generally expressed greater openness toward hearing from scientists on climate change because of their subject matter expertise. Still, participants stressed the importance of hearing factual statements from scientists rather than beliefs that may be shaped by their own political leanings or their research funders. . .
When it comes to measures aimed at transitioning the country toward renewable energy, interviewees stressed the importance of respecting individual freedoms – and individual choice – in any energy transition. This theme was underscored by criticism of policies like ending the production of new gas-powered vehicles.”
end excerpts
It sounds like some of those interviewed have been reading WUWT.
Sometimes I think the climate change truth is making progress.
interviewees stressed the importance of respecting individual freedoms – and individual choice – in any energy transition.
That’s the whole point of the climate mania and other closely related “transition” plans. Individuals can’t be allowed to make choices that might create externalities affecting not just their immediate neighbors but the entire planet. Since ICE technological improvements have greatly reduced the 1970s dome of smog over the Los Angeles basin, some of the Yankee faithful believe that technology has the same capacity for other problems everywhere if only individuals will subordinate their own needs to those of the community. However, the community doesn’t delineate its needs in scientific terms or numerology. The scientific community does, through academia. They identify the problems and posit the solutions. But they don’t arrange financing or generally even suggest it because its scope is simply too breathtaking to contemplate. Even now, before the real “work” has begun, the bill is in the trillions of dollars, a sum that is so unimaginable in human experience that no one can actually visualize it.
Every dollar exchanged by anyone on anything is eventually transferred to another human. In the case of the CO2 insanity huge amounts of filthy lucre that are meant to stabilize the climate will end up in the endowments of research universities, the bank accounts of academics, with media shareholders and the management of new industries in the photo-voltaic and wind turbine business. The recipients of these funds are individuals, not by definition “community” members.
The idea of an oasis rising in the middle of a desert to quench the thirst of a stranded soul might sound like something out of a survival movie, but it has become the reality in one of the driest places on Earth.
In Death Valley National Park, the aftermath of Hurricane Hilary has created a rare lake in the middle of the park. The storm dropped 5.6 centimeters of rain (2.2 inches) in a 24-hour period, after it struck late on August 19. This is equivalent to an entire year’s worth of rain for the area.
Death Valley is one of the hottest places on Earth, with record temperatures recorded here of 54.4°C (130°F) in June. It may have also had the hottest midnight ever recorded.
“This is a really special time,” said Superintendent Mike Reynolds in a news release. “It’s pretty rare to see a lake in Death Valley! Badwater Basin has a temporary lake that is several miles long. The lake is only a few inches deep and may dry up within a few weeks.”
end excerpt
This kind of goes along with the article the other day showing the drought in California is gone for the most part, at least temporarily.
The Wash DC judicial process that Mark Steyn is being dragged thru is often absurd and infantile. Mark does an excellent job of taunting and baiting one of Mann’s lawyers. 3 videos are available so far.
WUWT should be covering the sham trial that begins – again – tomorrow.
The videos posted are recorded 2020 interrogations of Mark Steyn by Michael Mann’s attorney.
Mark as always give a great entertaining and seriously strong accounting of the facts behind the writing that he did to expose the fraud of MM’s Hockey Schtick.
Mark Steyn is representing himself and needs all the financial help he can get! Go to his website to help.
We’ve just had a ‘drought rebuttal’ thread and very lovely too.
So that is why, as it’ll be fresh on folks’ minds, I’ll drop this one in here
When it comes to dry/arid places…
and when it rains at such places so as to relieve a drought….
and someone someone at that place records the amount of rain that fell
what exactly are they recording?
Are they actually measuring real/new water (e.g. as might be piped in via an irrigation system)
or, this is the crazy bit, are they counting the same water multiple times?
i.e. Is the rain they record actually relieving the drought?
Two things got me going: 1/ That when watching a rainfall radar on the interweb, sometimes and wherever I might be obviously, the radar says it is raining but stepping/looking outside it is patently not raining.
IOW, Rain is falling from aloft but is evaporating before it gets to the ground
Simple enough
2/ Thunderclouds and the process of charge separation = where ‘stuff’ is moving upwards (ice crystals) but the same sort of stuff (liquid rainwater) is falling downwards, at the same time and through the ‘rising stuff’. They ‘pass each other on the stairs‘ so-to-speak.
Picture this:
We are at a Dry Place suffering drought
A thundercloud arrives and rain starts falling
By definition, air pressure has fallen where we are and there is vigorous uplift
The rain that makes it to the ground (as counted by the rain gauge) will, by definition, be falling on very hot dry ground.
It will evaporate, water vapour is very buoyant so that water vapour will rise and join in (reinforce) the existing uplift.
It will make it into the cloud, condense and fall as rain.
Where the rain gauge will count it as more rain.
But it isn’t, it is rain that fell maybe an hour ago, evaporated, went back aloft, condensed and fell back down again inside that hour.
You counted the same water twice and made no allowance for it by ‘counting’ the water vapour as it was created by the hot dirt and went back aloft.
In the case of the Atmospheric River, where a ‘rain system’ gets stuck and dumps immense amounts of rain (as seen by the rain gauge) on one particular place – are you really sure the water is coming from the ‘river’ or is it just the same water enjoying free multiple trips in an elevator?
An elevator where you’ve only counted it coming down but not going up.
i.e. You might count 6 inches of rain but there was maybe only one inch of real actual water involved because you didn’t count the 5 return trips the water vapour made when it went aloft and turned back into rain
Especially as the vigorous updraught will be creating a surface wind/breeze that will enhance the evaporation. More: Let’s say your next-door neighbour had some ‘spare water’ –
Those surface breezes would ‘steal’ his water, uplift it into your thundercloud and drop it as rain on you – upshot being to make your rainfall look better but actually make his drought even worse.
Houston: We really do have a problem….
What does Climate Science say about this we wonder – tell me why I’m talking nonsense
Dry lands have a higher runoff coefficient when the rains finally do arrive. Excess overland flows generated from the impenetrable surface.
Rainfall “recycling” is highest in the wet lands, where the runoff coefficient is least.
Water availability (budgets) tend to be maximum where recycling is at maximum. go figure.
This is accomplished through infiltration and subsequent transpiration; water sourced from the root zone and exiting via green growth. A self reinforcing bio-precipitation mechanism, with the updrafts carrying also bacterial & fungal condensation catalysts.
Evaporation is a dry-ing process. Transpiration is a wettening process.
Dry-land evaporation is coupled to precipitation inhibition (anti-catalyst), in the form of hydrostatically charged fine mineral dusts. Dust particles statically charged from bouncing around in the dry breeze. Evaporatively sourced moisture only has available the charged micro dust on which to condense . These agents repel one another like the matching ends of a magnet, unable to accumulate into a falling drop.
Peta,
We see maps from our Aussie BOM showing cyclone tracks that bring rain over the deserts up to 1,500 km or 6 days of travel. That would seem to require recycling rain, since it is rather too much to carry at the start of the journey at the coast and there are few if any roadside diners to top up the rain as it moves along.
Geoff S
The ISO-NE, New England grid operator uses battery losses at 10% in its reports, but the EIA states: Losses of various storage technologies range from about 35% to less than 20%, for an average of 20.85%; that average has decreased, due to the increased use of li-ion batteries.
The 20.85% excludes electricity consumption of: 1) thermal management of batteries and enclosures, 2) control and monitoring, 3) step-up and step-down transformers, 4) site lighting, O&M, surveillance.
That electricity often is not reported. It may be measured by separate meters.
NOTE: Li-ion battery systems, because of mass production by Tesla and others, have lesser costs per kWh delivered as AC, and lesser percent losses relative to other technologies.
Since about 2017, li-ion systems have become a major part of the US storage system inventory. See Part 4of URL
Turnkey Capital Cost of Tesla-Megapack Battery Systems
Tesla is the world’s largest provider of lithium-ion battery systems, that include front-end power electronics, batteries, back-end power electronics, heating and cooling systems for batteries and enclosures
Megapack ratings, MW/MWh, increased from 2021, to 2022, to 2023
Megapack pricing varies due to market conditions
2021 pricing for a 10 Megapack system, 4-h delivery, with installation, about $10 million, or $328/kWh
2022 pricing for a 10 Megapack system, 4-h delivery, with installation, about $16 million, or $412/kWh
2023 pricing for a 10 Megapack system, 4-h delivery, with installation, about $19 million, or $487/kWh
Tesla Megapacks had a 487/328 = 48.5% price increase from 2021 to 2023
Connecting the Megapacks into a system incurs losses, which are represented by the “Tesla design factor”
After applying the factor, the above $/kWh is increased! See URLs and below examples.
1) Example of Turnkey Cost of Large-Scale, Megapack Battery System, 2022 pricing
PG&E, a California utility, placed a battery system in operation at Moss Landing in April 2022
The system consists of 256 Megapacks, rated 182.5 MW/730 MWh, 4-h energy delivery.
Power = 256 Megapacks x 0.770 MW x 0.926, Tesla design factor = 182.5 MW
Energy = 256 Megapacks x 3.070 MWh x 0.929, Tesla design factor = 730 MWh
We assume $1.1 million/Megapack, because of large number of units
Estimated supply by Tesla, 256 Megapacks x $1.1 million = $282 million, or $386/kWh
Estimated supply by Ohers, $62/kWh All-in, turnkey cost about $448/kWh; 2022 pricing
The primary purpose of this battery system is to absorb midday solar output bulges, and deliver about 80% of it during the peak demand hours of late afternoon/early evening.
2) Example of Turnkey Cost of Large-Scale, Megapack Battery System, 2023 pricing
The system consists of 50 Megapack 2, rated 45.3 MW/181.9 MWh, 4-h energy delivery
Power = 50 Megapacks x 0.979 MW x 0.926, Tesla design factor = 45.3 MW
Energy = 50 Megapacks x 3.916 MWh x 0.929, Tesla design factor = 181.9 MWh
Estimate of supply by Tesla, $90 million, or $495/kWh. See URL
Estimate of supply by Others, $14.5 million, or $80/kWh All-in, turnkey cost about $575/kWh; 2023 pricing
Fixed Annual Cost of Megapack Battery Systems; 2023 pricing
Assume a system rated 45.3 MW/181.9 MWh, and an all-in turnkey cost of $104.5 million, per Example 2
Amortize bank loan for 50% of $104.5 million at 6.0%/y for 15 years, $5.291 million/y
Pay Owner return of 50% of $104.5 million at 9%/y for 15 years, $6.359 million/y (9% due to high inflation)
Lifetime (Bank + Owner) payments 15 x (5.291 + 6.359) = $174.75 million
Assume battery daily usage for 15 years at 10%, and losses at 19%
Battery output = 15 y x 365 d/y x 181.9 MWh x 0.1, usage x 1000 kWh/MWh = 99,590,250 kWh delivered to HV grid
(Bank + Owner) payments, $174.75 million / 99,590,250 kWh = 175.5 c/kWh
Less 50% subsidies (ITC, depreciation in 5 years, deduction of interest on borrowed funds) is 87.7c/kWh At 10% usage, publicized cost, 87.7 c/kWh At 40% usage, publicized cost, 21.9 c/kWh
Excluded costs/kWh: 1) O&M; 2) system aging, 3) system losses from HV grid to HV grid, 3) any grid extension/augmentation to connect the battery systems, 5) downtime of some parts of the system, 6) decommissioning in year 15, i.e., disassembly, reprocessing and storing at hazardous waste sites. NOTE 1: The 40% usage is close to Tesla’s recommendation of 60% usage, i.e., not charging above 80% and not discharging below 20%. Tesla’s recommendation was not heeded be Hornsdale Power Reserve owners.
They added Megapacks to offset rapid aging of the original system and to increase the rating of the expanded system. http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/the-hornsdale-power-reserve-largest-battery-system-in-australia NOTE 2: Aerial photos of large-scale battery systems with many Megapacks, show many items of equipment, other than the Tesla supply, such as step-down/step-up transformers, switchgear, connections to the grid, land, access roads, fencing, security, site lighting, i.e., the cost of the Tesla supply is only one part of the battery system cost at a site. NOTE 3: Battery system turnkey capital costs and electricity storage costs likely will be much higher in 2023 and future years, than in 2021 and earlier years, due to: 1) increased inflation rates, 2) increased interest rates, 3) supply chain disruptions, which delay projects and increase costs, 4) increased energy prices, such as of oil, gas, coal, electricity, etc., 5) increased materials prices, such as of tungsten, cobalt, lithium, copper, manganese, etc., 6) increased labor rates. NOTE 4: World cobalt production was 142,000 and 170,000 metric ton, in 2020 and 2021, respectively, of which the Democratic Republic of the Congo was 120,000 metric ton in 2021.
Losses of various storage technologies range from about 35% to less than 20%, for an average of 20.85%; …
Why state an average to 4-significant figures when the extremes are less than 2-significant figures? It implies a precision that is not warranted or useful.
Tesla recommends to charge to no more than 80%, and to discharge to no less than 20%, to achieve 15 year life, i.e., a maximum of 60% of rated value is available, which gets smaller by 1.5% each year for 15 years, due to aging
According to the EIA, almost all battery systems operate at less than 10% of rating, which yields a battery cost addition of at least 87.7 c/kWh delivered as AC to the HV grid; the cost added to the cost of electricity taken from the HV grid to charge the battery.
Now, researchers from Oregon State University have an answer.
The die-offs, according to a study published this week in the journal Science, follow changing conditions in the Arctic Ocean – namely, declines in sea ice cover that lead to a dearth of the crustaceans that gray whales love to eat.
And when the ice periodically returns, it restricts the animals’ access to feeding grounds, so the whales have even less to eat, the researchers found.
While Arctic conditions vary naturally year to year, climate change has magnified the changes in recent years, said the study’s lead author, Joshua Stewart, an ecologist and assistant professor with Oregon State’s Marine Mammal Institute.
“When the whales have both little food available and not much access to their feeding areas in the same year, that’s when we get these big impacts and die-offs,” he said. “And the reason this mortality event is lingering and is more severe than before is likely to be climate-related.”
I commented in the thread about Siemens, seeking information about wind turbine failures, specifically the ones traceable to bearings. I explained my interest in full there, and won’t repeat it here.
I have a second area that I am looking at. I was recently told that chemical storage of energy has reached its peak, meaning to me that the gravimetric energy density of batteries cannot be improved. If that’s true, then we won’t see the sort of battery chemistry breakthrough(s) required to make electric cars truly functional beyond their urban commuter niche. Thus, for example, the much-discussed solid state batteries won’t matter very much.
This was presented to me as a matter of physics. Given that both chemistry and physics were my worst subjects, I am looking for input, but it must be backed by authoritative sources that are understandable to an intelligent, reasonably diligent non-specialist, as opposed to statements not backed by actual evidence. In practice, that means: LINKS.
Have we topped out on EV batteries? That’s the question. If so, why?
Chemical batteries, ie the types of batteries that rely on a chemical change to store electricity, probably are at peak efficiency now – any changes will be minor. Breakthrough’s in battery technology will, if they happen at all, need to use completely different technology; an emergent technology that isn’t on the horizon as yet.
“Have we topped out on EV batteries? That’s the question.”
Toyota claims to be making breakthroughs with a solid-state battery, which they say has greater range than lithium-ion batteries, charges faster, and does not spontaneously combust.
They think these batteries will be ready for the 2025 models.
From what I have read, these will still be lithium-ion batteries but with a solid electrolyte. But, unlike so many people online, I will admit to not knowing enough about the chemistry. If these perform as hyped (big “if”), at an acceptable cost and longevity, it would be a game-changer.
The only drawbacks to EVs are range, charging time, and fire safety. In every other respect, EVs are superior to ICE vehicles. I say this as an owner of a one-ton diesel truck, a mid-size SUV, and a dinky EV that I bought 11 years ago out of the bankruptcy of Think, purely as an experiment.
The promotional articles tout 700-mile ranges (which I would expect to be less in cold weather and uphill), much faster charging, and much greater safety. I think a 400- to 500-mile all-conditions, reliable range, safer EV battery, with the same level of degradation and longevity of what’s out there now, would quickly transform the light passenger vehicle (cars, SUVs, pickup trucks, vans) sector.
I look at all of the so-called “energy alternatives” in purely engineering terms. I think the entire human-caused climate change issue as a type of secular religion, and regard EVs not as causes by ENTIRELY as vehicles with a different fuel and propulsion system. Which is to say: no loyalties to ICE, no membership in the EV cult.
I am skeptical of the solid state battery claims, yet that’s outweighed by this: “I am in favor of whatever works,” with “works” defined as checking the boxes for cost, reliability, range, charging, and safety relative to ICE. If the engineering really is what Toyota claims it to be (and they have a lot of credibility with me), then cost might be the remaining hurdle. Nothing yet on that front, so we shall see.
EV’s are not evil, they are just not suited for our mass transportation needs right now. At some point in the future, they might be.
Forcing EV’s on the public right now is not the way to go. The way to go is to let the market decide. Of course, our current leaders have an unwarranted fear of CO2, so they think it is crucial to get rid of anything that produces CO2, even if it bankrupts all of us.
Fortunately, this reign of Green Terror may have only a little more time to go.
The IPCC says the GWP number for methane is the forcing from the release of 1 kg of methane relative to 1 kg of carbon dioxide. Currently that number is 86. Hence the media head lines that methane is 86 times more powerful than CO2.
By 2100 methane will have increased in the atmosphere by about 0.5 ppm. Since the comparison is by mass, a similar increase in CO2 would be about 0.18 ppm. So the question is: If CO2 increases from 400.00 ppm to 400.18 ppm, how much will that run up global temperature? Obviously it won’t, it’s essentially nothing, and 86 times nothing is nothing.
Well there are some trailing numbers that come out to a few hundredths of a degree but they’re meaningless. And western governments want to regulate dairy farms, cattle ranching and rice patties over this.
Walk-in Open Border Idiocies
Many countries are saving money by cleaning out their slums, populated with unskilled, uneducated, inexperienced, socially challenged, crime-inclined people
With help of 1) privately financed NGOs (Soros, Hollywood actors, etc.,) and 2) the parasitic, criminal-infested, human trafficking infrastructure, to provide those folks with food, clothing, shelter, transport, etc., as they travel north for weeks, until they finally arrive at our southern border, which is welded open by Biden’s handlers, to enable those folks to walk in unhindered, unvetted, and be distributed far and wide.
The total US cost is at least $100 billion for the first year, $150 billion the second year, $200 billion the third year, on an A-to-Z basis.
We could have finished the wall for one tenth the money, and have none of these society-dividing, unvetted, undocumented illegal aliens
The Statue of Liberty mentions “welcoming the poor, the homeless” made perfect sense in the 19th century with a rapidly expanding industrial economy desperate for uneducated, unskilled workers.
It is long overdue to remove those words and replace them with “we welcome the highly educated and experienced, and those with business ownership experience
Sweden, Germany, France, etc., after much travail, finally are moving to the highly skilled, experienced standard.
They found the present standard has caused major adverse effects, on their societies and cultures
Europe was sucking on Russia’s low-cost energy tits, life was easy, economies were growing, workers were needed.
With high-cost energy and high costs of climate idiocies, unskilled, inexperienced, cultural-clashing folks are just too costly.
Many of them, especially those with criminal records, will be send back to their original countries.
CO2 Emissions The annual CO2 reductions by the EU/US, etc., are much less than the annual CO2 increases by China/India, etc. That trend will not change for decades, because China/India, etc., are building hundreds of new, efficient coal plants, that last at least 50 years, and have at least 3 times more CO2/kWh than gas-fired, combined-cycle, gas-turbine power plants, CCGTs, which, in base-loaded mode, have efficiencies of 60+% Russian Gas Russia has the 56-inch diameter, 2466-mile, Power of Siberia 1 gas pipeline, capacity 61 bcm, of which up to 38 bcm to China. Russia will have the 1616-mile Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline from Yamal Peninsula to China, designed to deliver, via Mongolia, up to 50 bcm to China. That means gas, previously sent to the EU, will go to China. The EU will be in near-zero, real-growth mode, by importing LNG, mostly from the US, at about 2 to 3 times the price.
China CO2
China has the particulate and CO2 emissions from the factories that were once in the West.
The US climate idiots get to virtue signal, as they consume China’s products
Wokachusetts
Wokeachusetts climate idiots are proudly bragging how energy efficient/clean Wokachusetts is, after having closed almost all of its blue-collar industries.
Wokachusetts has a “clean” economy, based on higher education, hospitals, high tech firms, and tourism.
Mass wokies are so virtuous, because they have a low carbon footprint!
Mass wokies do not mention the carbon footprint of what we import from China, Europe, Mexico, etc.
Complain to enviro-groups and politicians about this absurdity, and you get ignored/blacklisted/cancelled/become unemployable.
Actually, I do not care about any carbon footprint, because CO2 is a very minor actor in the overall CO2 picture https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/co2-is-a-life-gas-no-co2-no-life
Mass wokies get federal money to “welcome” illegal aliens
Mass wokies use federal money to house illegals in up-scale hotels, and feed, clothe, transport, educate, etc., them at huge expense.
The subsidized, lapdog media has been told not to call them undocumented, illegal aliens, but “migrants”.
Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets
The remaining carbon budget (RCB), the net amount of CO2 humans can still emit without exceeding a chosen global warming limit, is often used to evaluate political action against the goals of the Paris Agreement. RCB estimates for 1.5C are small, and minor changes in their calculation can therefore result in large relative adjustments. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01848-5
Do we think there is any signs of the climate catastrophe cult wearing thin amongst the populace? I’m seeing increasing evidence of green shoots (feed by co2 of course) of reason and reality starting to take root relating to the west’s madness of nut-zero, and all related climate voodoo..
Any consensus at WUWT relating to this?
I think the populace is generally ignorant of the seriousness of this issue and works to ignore it, as with all intense political issues. The demographics of belief may well be changing but that is a complex scientific question.
Green shoots.
https://www.the-sun.com/news/9198363/explosion-ev-batteries-airport-uzbekistan/
The LIBs are now the greens’ worst enemy. (LIB = Li-Ion Battery).
More green shoots and story tip:
https://www.thecentersquare.com/national/article_a609f8aa-7443-11ee-83d3-df5b22909078.html
Could you paraphrase for those of us that can’t access it for, apparently, legal reasons?
“Study: Cost of ‘fueling’ an electric vehicle is equivalent to $17.33 per gallon”
They look at all the subsidies etc, and conclude that if others weren’t paying most of their costs then this is what EV owners would be paying.
I’m not seeing many green shoots in the UK. The PM ditching some of the green goofiness is explainable as a last-ditch attempt to minimize Tory losses in the looming general election. A leader anticipating victory would be occupying to the centre ground, which teems with climate bed-wetters unfortunately.
I was looking at photographs from my neigbourhoud of forty years ago, it struck me how few trees were standing there.
Do you have trees now?
The ones round here in the UK refuse to stop growing too much for some of the surrounding houses. The lawn is also starting to annoy me.
Yes, it is anecdotal evidence, but I would still go long on companies selling lawnmowers and chainsaws.
(That is, of course, climate advice, not financial advice.)
I see zero green shoots here in Wokeachusetts. But there are some new ideas. The greens no longer want wind turbines on land but they love them at sea. And they’re now fighting against deforestation for solar “farms”. Instead, they propose putting solar on every roof and on parking lots- thinking that will be sufficient for net zero. And, resistance is now building against installing industrial scale battery systems. I don’t see these tactical changes as green shoots since they all still believe in net zero nirvana.
It’s hard to get momentum. As soon as some folks get some semblances of reason and reality then…. summer arrives and we are back to square one. sigh…
That’s at least somewhat consistent with Mackay. He said that people go mad in herds but only recover their senses slowly and one by one.
We have seasonal hyperbole.
Even if there were “solar on every rooftop”, that’s not enough solar. When you do the math, there’s not enough panel area on a rooftop to supply power to just the household under it, much less to the power grid. That’s even assuming there’s enough self-immolating batteries to get it through the winter. Keep in mind that it’s not just the current electric bill, but also heating and EV charging.
Exactly. In fact, the first climate czar here – several years ago- admitted that- but he got fired after going on a webinar with only climate zeolots (in VT) where he admitted that the states will have to really beat on the civilians to slash their energy- especially old folks! He was fired the next day. He also said that covering all the roofs (most aren’t south facing or sturdy enough for solar)- hundreds of thousands of acres of forest would have to be destroyed for solar “farms”. Yuh, they fired him real fast for telling the truth. I posted a comment in WUWT on that- which was then picked up by one of the editors into a full essay. I don’t have the link but probably could find it.
OK, found it. 3 years ago- seems long, thanks to the Covid nightmare.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/02/12/video-massachusetts-climate-official-people-on-fixed-income-we-have-to-break-their-will/
Yes Joseph, I see your point, but as the avenues start closing for wind and solar and also hydro, to get enough power generation to do all the tech things we enjoy in life, people will demand more reliability at reasonable cost, as they are ultimately paying for it. Thus, we will just have to go back to centralized power generation at scale, which means coal, gas or nuclear, until something better comes along.
As the pain of the climate `solutions’ i.e. Net Zero increases across the Western world, it’s the people who will demand sensible solutions from their politicians, who will then look to science for answers. It is to be hoped that the science establishment will then disown climate alarmism, admit their uncertainties about any really dangerous future, and so we can back to normal life before this environmental madness claimed our leaders.
The realities of power cuts and ever increasing prices will focus minds
Unfortunately it doesn’t always focus their minds on the cause of their miseries.
The cause of their miseries is partly government “green” policies that wilfully force expensive, unreliable energy costs on them.
They get angry at the government for increased taxes, inflation, and a lower standard of living. But they don’t don’t understand that expensive energy affects everything, repeat everything, in their lives.
They then go out and vote for the opposition who will give them more of the same, if not worse, while concurrently promising to save the planet from global boiling.
The definition of insanity = Doing the same thing and expecting different result. A lot of insane people out there.
Maybe it’s unwise to take on Einstein, but to my mind that definition of insanity is a perfect fit to learning to play a musical instrument. I’ll drink a toast to those insane ones – they enrich all our lives.
like Canada ?
News tip
https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/cop/canada-pause-carbon-tax-home-heating-oil-three-years-2023-10-26/
Trudeau’s handlers have realized that in many vote-rich areas (for them), the words “carbon tax” are usually uttered with along with expletives.
The highs in the north clearly indicate that the western circulation has stopped in the polar vortex. These highs are pushing the lows further south. If solar activity remains as low as it is now, the inhibition of circulation may continue.
Yes and no..
There’s certainly an epic High sitting on Arctica but the Lows are sat on Ireland, UK, Western France because:
It rained there recently, on warm ground, heated by the low albedo dirt farmers created doing both harvesting and planting. The lows will be reluctant to move.
The air lifted by those systems is given a perfect ‘drain’ onto either/both Europe and ‘places north of Iceland’ – further reinforcing that reluctance.
Both Metoeblue and UK Met Office right-now show an anticyclone planted very firmly on Ireland and going nowhere until Weds at least when it starts to fill and drift north-west.
For England/UK this is Bad News, it’s pulling a strong (easterly) air-stream off Scandinavia which will be very cold going into next week. But dry and sunny.
How to think about what we do.
Introduction to “issue storms” and “issue trees”
By David Wojick, Ph.D.
https://www.cfact.org/2023/10/18/introduction-to-issue-storms-2/
The beginning: “Like Galileo I have two new sciences, not that I am in his league. His were the statics (structure) and dynamics of physical stuff. Mine are the structure and dynamics of complex issues. This is explained briefly below.
The dynamics is about a highly nonlinear information flow that I call an issue storm, which I discovered about 40 years ago but never wrote about because I was making lots of money knowing about it. The science involves mapping and measuring issue storms over time. It also includes prediction to the extent feasible. Like physical storms, issue storms tend to be somewhat unpredictable.
To begin with, we need what I call looping. If A communicates to B and B replies to A, that is a single loop. When a major issue arises in an organization, or community, or country, or globally, there can be a tremendous amount of looping.
Most importantly, this evolving body of looping will have a specific pattern, which will vary from case to case. Imagine if you could just look down in the dark and see all the email traffic as an issue breaks, grows, and spreads, with each email as a streak of light. You could see the pattern, including how it changes over time.”
The end: “The deep problem is that while work (and life) has increasingly become issue-driven, we simply do not have the tools to manage the issue storms that buffet us. We do not even have the concepts and language to talk about these things, but I have made a small start. Different issue storms and issue trees have specific natures, consume specific resources, and evolve in specific ways. If we cannot even describe these features, then we certainly cannot manage them. This is a research project in waiting.
But at least we can understand that issue storms and issue trees are there, and we are in them. There is science here to be done and applied. Take time from engaging in an issue to study the critter itself. Above all, stay calm. Rise above the storm.”
Lots in between including stuff to measure. We are heavily into issue storms here at WUWT, right? Fighting and fanning them is what we do.
a science of the rise and fall of a zeitgeist?
That would be a really big, slow one but sure.
For that matter issue storms can include wars if they are ideological.
The NSA is monitoring issue storms, who is communicating with whom. They know quite a lot about each who and whom. That means patterns between various who s and whom s are predictable from issue to issue.
The next step is to somehow manage and direct the communications into desirable directions, by various hindrances, such cancelling accounts, controlling access to certain information, blacklisting
Snowdon, now on forced exile in Moscow, blew the whistle on all that, way before the general public had any idea what he was talking about.
That deep state powers took advantage of that ignorance, branded him a spy, to be “put away for life”, whereas, he was a truth revealer.
There is certainly some predictability. If there is a big EV fire we will hear about it and spread the word. How to first describe and measure this activity is the first scientific question. I doubt NSA is addressing that.
With time, money and talent, the NSA will cover the spectrum, a useful tool for political control.
March 9, 2022, when President Biden signed the death warrant on American freedom?
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/march-9-2022-when-president-biden-signed-the-death-warrant-on
BY TYLER DURDEN
Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,
Where were you on March 9, 2022, when President Biden signed the death warrant on American freedom?
On that day, in a hushed ceremony at the White House without the approval of Congress, the states or the American people, Biden signed into law Executive Order 14067.
Buried in his order are a few paragraphs, titled Section 4. The language in Section 4 makes Order 14067 the most treacherous act by a sitting president in the history of our republic.
That’s because Section 4 sets the stage for legal government surveillance of all U.S. citizens, total control over your bank accounts and purchases and the ability to silence all dissenting voices for good.
In this new war on freedom, they aren’t coming for your guns. No, they’re thinking much bigger than that.
They’re coming for your money.
Scary but it has little to do with my two new sciences. I think it is important for us to understand the structure and dynamics of complex issues.
I’m not convinced that it has little do do with your ideas. The point is that issue storms can be started for a purpose, which may be to provide a smoke-screen or to provide backing. The whole of mainstream climate ‘science’ for example is to provide backing for the elimination of democracy. Isn’t what wilpost posted just the latest scary step in the process?
Snowden, Assange – yes, both truth revealers. In a perfect world, they wouldn’t have anything to do. In an imperfect world it gets tricky.
Thomas Sowell: “There are no solutions. There are only trade-offs.”.
It’s OK to blow the whistle in a way that uncovers untoward authority, if it benefits the people. Did Snowden and Assange do that or did they overdo it and actually harm people? (That’s a question not an answer).
You unclothe to deep state, and you get ignored/blacklisted/cancelled/become unemployable/will be hunted down.
Eventually, the bursting of debt bubbles will be the overwhelming issues for what they will bring.
It’s like Bastiat’s seen and the unseen (or like weather and climate). You see the issue storm but you don’t see the long march through the institutions.
More angst in today’s Observer – aka Sunday Guardian
A public statement signed by more than 1,000 scientists in support of meat production and consumption has numerous links to the livestock industry, the Guardian can reveal. The statement has been used to target top EU officials against environmental and health policies and has been endorsed by the EU agriculture commissioner.
The “Dublin Declaration of Scientists on the Societal Role of Livestock” says livestock “are too precious to society to become the victim of simplification, reductionism or zealotry” and calls for a “balanced view of the future of animal agriculture”. One of the authors of the declaration is an economist who called veganism an “eating disorder requiring psychological treatment”.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/27/revealed-industry-figures-declaration-scientists-backing-meat-eating
A vegan probably could use some help….
uh oh- they’re all shills for the livestock industry! /sarc
Maybe we can supplement our income, currently dominated by our Big Fossil payoffs by also collecting from Big Meat? Not that it will do me any good. Apparently someone has stolen my identity and all the Big Oil payments I was promised for being a skeptical commenter on WUWT have disappeared into the internet somewhere. I haven’t seen a penny.
The “axis of evil”, Russia/China/Iran, etc.,, happily will continue to eat meat, as they have always done, while the woke West will be feasting on various insects.
This likely will not affect the lucrative business of “fine dining” in Europe, because the well off, including future well off tourists, would never give up a juicy steak, if the alternative is insects
For clarity, no one will stop me eating meat
One of my favourite foods is vegan – beef. Does that make me sort of vegan? A friend told me she bought some cricket powder for coating food. I pointed out that ground crickets look a lot like ground cockroaches. Friendships can be so fragile.
Is this what you mean?
Did we abuse comment editing? I hate clicking Post Comment and seeing stupid typing errors reveal themselves. Can we edit again, please?
It’s just broken and they haven’t had time to figure out how to fix it.
Relax, slow down, proof reed.
Hahahaha, very good! +1
Thanks. Took me a minute or two to get that one.
It does have it’s merits. Prior to pressing the submit button I used to routinely paste my comment into a word processor file for saving and spell check it. This also allowed me to spot other errors.
I’ll admit to having become lazy, just re-reading my comment after posting, thinking I could edit it if necessary.
Michael,
But the trap still managed to get you. Your 4th word, “it’s” should be without apostrophe. My spell checker, maybe the biggest one, inserts it wrongly.
The checker designers must know this is wrong, yet they have persisted with wrong for years.
Deliberate wrong makes me align with Dr Wojick who is researching a rather important topic.
What I find hard to understand is the reason why so many foot soldiers rush ignorantly to support reduction of their own living standards. We used to be leaders of beneficial societal change. Now, hordes of us do what they are told to do, with relish, like the spell check workers who won’t fix wrong.
Geoff S
But the foot soldiers want to reduce others’ living standards not their own.
Yes, those darn pronouns cause lots of problems. And that was before this gender identity nonsense. The three “theres” are commonly misused–not to mention the two “yours.” A common error of mine is leaving the “r” off of “your.” I’ve stopped being a grammar policeman. Usually in correcting someone’s error, I introduce several of my own–it’s very embarrassing..
Would it not be possible to excite some young aggressive journalist into making his name and career by getting some science about carbon dioxide’s lack of influence on the weather into the mainstream media? There’s plenty to work with. He may need a fluency with words and a low rat-like cunning. This would collapse the scam of course and ruin a lot of undeserving people.
Sadly, if there was, he/she probably wouldn’t get a job
Yup. Currently career suicide.
It needs someone courageous who knows what they are getting into.
The most well known objectors in science have been tenured academics who can’t be fired.
Even they suffer from being excluded from funding, ending much of their research.
I think it was Judith Curry who did the honourable thing and stopped taking students before she quit, knowing that being a student of hers had now become a Sword of Damocles above her student’s later career prospects in current academia.
We may have to wait for the next generation of the able minded to reach positions where they feel brave enough to challenge the orthodoxy.
Fortunately you can at least always rely on some younger people to get a bit obstreperous.
There’s no money in it – the billions sloshing around are for alarmism only
Coeur,
My Aussie mate Tony Thomas often writes strongly about defects of Establishment climate change for Quadrant, a respected current affairs journal. He is not “some young expressive journalist”, but a senior, highly-credentialled journalist who is having difficulty getting his writing before the average reader. So what hope for a young greenhorn?
Geoff S
The Liberal Press (sorry, that’s redundant) is always finding “Scientists” to quote, regarding the various aspects of Anthropogenic Climate Change. My Graduate School courses included Philosophy of Science, taught by Professor Bill Taubeneck, who was utilized in several important trials as a person qualified to verify the Scientific Process. Then, working as a Temporary Geologist for Bear Creek Mining, the exploration subsidiary of Kennecott, I got another dose of Scientific Process. The geologists who would study (map, sample, analyze data, write a report) a prospect and recommend a drill program, defended their report in front of the assembled geologists in a several hour process. The Process often came close to an Inquisition, but the final product was truly “peer reviewed”. Where is the open meeting of qualified Scientists in such a forum? A forum where data is subject to verification, alternative interpretation, rejection or acceptance, and a consensus sought? Sort of a Scopes Monkey Trial live on TV? waiting…waiting….
They no longer encourage rational enquiry, they don’t do [real] science…
“”Who Were the Worst of the Worst Climate Polluters in 2022?
Emissions from large industrial sources decreased by approximately 1 percent to 2.7 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2022””
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/29102023/who-were-the-worst-of-the-worst-climate-polluters-in-2022/
“defended their report in front of the assembled geologists in a several hour process”
Makes perfect sense. Lots of money involved. This process makes all responsible.
“Where is the open meeting of qualified Scientists in such a forum?”
They’re too cowardly for such a system.
As I noted in another post in this thread- the state of Wokeachusetts now has a plan to save the planet. In that plan they make absurd statements- like the sea will rise 2.5′ by 2050 and the temperature will rise 5.9 to 7.9 F by 2050. Here, in the state with MIT and other technically advanced colleges! A one party state- 95% of state reps are Dems. Most top state leadership jobs are now held by feminists and climate alarmists. There no longer is a civil service system so getting and keeping state jobs is pure politics: nepotism, cronyism, affirmative action on steroids. It’s a loony bin (my appolgies to people with mental health problems). The media is 100% onboard with the climate emergency zealotry. I suspect if anyone speaks up publicly against that zealotry they’ll be burned at the stake.
“It’s a loony bin…”, I wondered why Barry and Michelle bought a house there. Good luck to the rest of you.
Martha’s Vineyard is not easy to get to. And it’s a very wealthy island. No “commoners” living there. The plumbers, electricians, roofers, carpenters have to fly in or take the ferry for day jobs there. Certainly no illegal immigrants there. And it’s close to Bah-stin with its ultra liberal “intelligentsia” that will always be friendly to them. They don’t want any green energy on the island- other than rooftop solar. Not sure but I don’t think the Obama mansion has rooftop solar. Mansions look less elegant with solar on the roof. I googled “electricity on Martha’s Vineyard” and got:
My ancestors unfortunately sold their Martha’s Vineyard land.
The people (persons unknown) who allegedly blew up the Nordstream pipeline could find gainful employment cutting power cables for entitled enclaves like that.
Well, if that happened, those elites will have the pleasure of getting some power from those diesel generators- though they’ll feel very, very guilty. 🙂
Outside of the tropics, it is still too cold to live outdoors all year without lots of technology.
The 97% of scientists are the woke part, looking for the job security of tenure, or working for a government entity, or a government-sponsored NGO, not adhering to the scientific method.
The other 3% are the movers and shakers scientists, who get all the Nobel prices and other such awards, because they do adhere to the scientific method
That chimes with my experience of science.
Many are, regretfully, just better than me.
I like to think that more are worse. But many of them are better than me when it came to making a career out of it.
Then, there are the people who make the real leaps. We learn their ideas and thinking in the textbooks and papers that get referenced and re-printed for many decades.
It is probably the same in all other fields of human endeavour.
Except it’s not really “97%”.
That’s just a flawed and deceitful STATISTICAL construct.
Along the lines of Mann’s Hockey stick.
And along the lines that a few “protesters” represent the majority.
The MSM have just given the few a megaphone.
Yes, the “97 percent consensus” on the validity of human-caused climate change is a hoax.
It’s another climate change Big Lie.
Same in the oil business where I spent my entire career. We had to withstand a technical and economic grilling to justify a management sign-off on the project whether an oil field development, a lease application, or a decision to open exploration in a particular play or basin. And rightly so. Like you I see a marked absence of such process in the Net Zero field or in gubmint generally.
Yes, we geologists and engineers live in the `school of hard knocks’ where if we are not right, our bosses lose money and we are sacked- simple as that. So, we have to do our homework properly, find a solution and action it. Thus, we in general do not see any climate problem with the global data presented, except for the fudged homogenized temperature data used by entities like NOAA and BoM to claim global warming hysteria.
I mentioned the following in a recent thread. This is for anyone who missed it.
The plan for Wokeachusetts to save the planet. 363 pages!
https://www.mass.gov/info-details/2023-resilientmass-plan
From the executive summary- I extracted the following lunacy and underlined some in yellow. Nobody and I mean NOBODY in this state challenges it. I probably will but I’ve been challenging the state for 50 years and I’m always ignored. I was canceled 50 years ago.
graphic attached
“”…plan for Wokeachusetts to save the planet.””
How can that be when 97% of English councils are doing the very same?
Looks like we’re in a competition as to which is the most woke!
A race to the bottom.
I don’t know what those guys are smokin’, but if things are going to be that bad in Massachusetts, the only safe thing to do is move out.
Unfortunately, the climate emergency disease has already metastasized across much of America. If I was wealthy I’d move to Tuscany. That’s my idea of retirement. Have my rocking chair under my olive and fig trees- close to the vineyard and big table where I’d eat spagehtti and pizza with local wine every day (like you see in every Italian movie) – we’d invite the neighors over and sing and dance. Well, I can dream. Meanwhile, after a weak of nicer than typical weather due to the “emergency”, we’re now going to slide into several months of typical shitty New England weather- cold and damp. Maybe the rest of the world is boiling, but not here! Good thing I recently installed a new oil furnace and I have a fairly new Toyota Rav4 so I won’t have to worry about being forced to buy a heat pump or EV. Not at 74, I won’t.
I love the sound of forced air coming through the vents from my gas furnace while enjoying a hot cup of coffee.
Winter is here. It’s 25F and I just finished shoveling my walk. I’ll do my driveway (and walk again) when the snow stops.
Someone gave me a snow blower after they moved into a condo.
Thanks for the reminder to check it out before I need it!
“where I’d eat spagehetti and pizza with local wine every day (like you see in every Italian movie)”
Just be careful when starting your car.
If I could retire there I wouldn’t even want a car. I’ve been a serious bicyclist all my life. I’d bring over my mountain bike. Biking has always been my second favorite activity. 🙂
🙂
Oh c’mon!!! There should have been a trigger warning all over that!
The coffee went straight out my nose. I’m going to be cleaning this up for the next ten minutes.
It’s a crime against the English language to boot. Not happy.
trigger warning!
A VISION FOR AN EQUITABLE AND JUST CLIMATE FUTURE
https://ajustclimate.org/
They’re not only gonna save the planet but they’ll perfect all of society! And cheap energy too! No pollution! High quality jobs! Paradise on Earth! You just gotta have the faith!
I’m especially thrilled that the climate will be “healthy”. Ain’t that wonderful!
Story Tip
There’s something wong, with James Wong’s idea of climate impartiality.
https://www.gbnews.com/celebrity/bbc-impartiality-defended-countryfile-james-wong
James Wrong….
That’s not all.
Take a look at the following article to the one referenced above. Quote:
” Along with Yeo Valley Organic [that says it all], Wong spoke to GB News about the health benefits of a new trend sweeping social media called “grounding” in which exposure to soil and the earth around us can provide health benefits.
Explaining the details of “grounding”, something that’s been endorsed by A-listers such as Gwyneth Paltrow and Emma Watson, Wong explained: “There’s this idea that, for example, walking around barefoot connects you directly to the earth and as a result, there are a surprising amount of mental and physical health benefits.
“People will talk about improved immune systems, for example, they may even talk about reduced inflammation.””
Maybe it’s just the walking that benefits you?
But near where I live it just might, bizarrely, benefit even more. Not only does slow, careful, conscious, placement of the feet strengthen the mind-limb neural connections, it also helps avoid the broken glass that would cut your bare feet. The shift from evil plastics seems to have made this problem worse.
I expect Gwyneth Paltrow doesn’t have that problem on her estate.
Wong is a Botanist – just ask him what happens to his beloved plants at less than 200ppm CO2
And then ask him why plants have already evolved to use 4X the amount of CO2 for photosynthesis than exists in the atmosphere today.
It’s the BBC’s idea of impartiality. They decide the issues, they decide what is news and they decide how it’s discussed. Arrogant and entitled prat’s who think they are above such petty ideas as truth and impartiality. Time to defund them and let them survive as fully commercial corporation.
One way to expose the core error of the global warming movement is through the scientific basis of numerical weather prediction, and how atmospheric modeling addresses the forms of energy long understood to be involved.
Edward Lorenz wrote about this in 1960, in “Energy and Numerical Weather Prediction”, linked here.
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10.3402/tellusa.v12i4.9420?needAccess=true
“Of the various form of energy present in the atmosphere, kinetic energy has often received the most attention. Often the total kinetic energy of a weather system is regarded as a measure of its intensity. The only other forms of atmospheric energy which appear to play a major role in the kinetic energy budget of the troposphere and lower stratosphere are potential energy, internal energy, and the latent energy of water vapor. Potential and internal energy may be transformed directly into kinetic energy, while latent energy may be transformed directly into internal energy, which is then transformed into kinetic energy. It is easily shown by means of the hydrostatic approximation that the changes of the potential energy P and the internal energy l of the whole atmosphere are approximately proportional, so that it is convenient to regard potential and internal energy as constituting a single form of energy.”
So what? The two-way conversion between kinetic energy and internal+potential energy is computed as one of the hourly parameters in the ERA5 reanalysis product of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts).
The parameter “vertical integral of potential + energy” is defined here. Note the importance of altitude in respect to potential energy.
https://codes.ecmwf.int/grib/param-db/?id=162061
The parameter “vertical integral of energy conversion” is defined here. Units are W/m^2.
https://codes.ecmwf.int/grib/param-db/?id=162064
So what? The conversion of energy between kinetic and internal+potential experienced in the atmosphere is hundreds to thousands of times greater than the ~4 W/m^2 incremental static “warming” effect of a doubling of CO2. In both directions.
So what? This means:
As an illustration, here is a plot of the minimum, median, and maximum ERA5 “vertical integral of energy conversion” for just one day for all longitudes at 45N latitude.
I aim to develop a more comprehensive post about all this, with a more effective graphic demonstration.
The irony is that it can be from atmospheric models that the core error of CAGW is more clearly understood. That error is to have assumed that heat energy (internal) MUST accumulate in the atmosphere, and then on land and in the oceans from what incremental GHGs do.
The accounting of energy through these reservoirs is a direct consequence of the temperature minimum (or entropy maximum) principles of nature. One must not truly “believe” in the fundamental thermodynamic laws of nature to suppose that the atmosphere can warm more than an initial IR Force would prescribe. It can only warm less.
The unavoidable conclusion is that, supposing temperature really is rising more than it should, something else must be going on. Shining the light exclusively on IR gas perturbation is unlikely to reveal what is really happening.
Correction: “The parameter “vertical integral of potential + internal energy” is defined here.”
Here is the end of a commercial that has been running on television for the last few months:
“Congress needs to protect our Democratic values. Call Congress and tell them to Stengthen American Technology.”
Paid for by American Edge Project
I would say this advertisement is a waste of money.
What do they mean by “Strengthen American Technology”?
You call up your congresscritter and tell him to strengthen American technology, and the first thing he’s going to ask you is: What, exactly, are you talking about? And you won’t know because the advertisement gives no clue as to what that means. So nobody is going to make this call.
Check out the ‘American Edge Project’ first and you might not want to make that call. I think the advert is meant to sucker you in to their website to see what they’re about, then through misinformation and dishonest statements, get donations. I doubt if Zuckerberg and Facebook are fully funding them any more.
Political campaigns calling for “change”, without specifics are to be ignored as well. And “support your local police”. How would one “unsupport them”?
https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/Senate-hearing-spotlights-climate-disruption-on-supply-chains/697936/
‘It has already begun’: Senate sounds off on climate disruption to supply chains
With droughts and heat waves affecting crops and shipping routes this year, the budget committee looked at the rising costs extreme weather will have on supply lines.
Published Oct. 26, 2023
Ben Unglesbee Senior Reporter
“Climate change is already disrupting supply chains and will only get worse, which will ultimately lead to higher costs to consumers, businesses and governments
.
The looming crisis was the subject of a U.S. Senate committee hearing on Wednesday titled “Bottlenecks and Backlogs: How Climate Change Threatens Supply Chains” held by the budget committee.
Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, a Democrat from Rhode Island and the committee’s chairman, pointed to how the COVID-19 pandemic “laid bare fragilities” in the global supply chain system.
“Just as the pandemic wreaked havoc throughout our supply chains, climate change is poised to do the same, only likely much more frequently,” Whitehouse said. “In fact, it has already begun.”
The lawmaker cited estimates from the climate disclosure nonprofit CDP that disruptions from global warming on supply chains would cost companies $120 billion by 2026.
Whitehouse also brought up droughts, heat waves and other climate-related events that have recently affected olive oil production in Spain and cocoa harvests. Such events could impact mining infrastructure for minerals like gold, iron ore and zinc, which could see production affected by water shortages. He also invoked droughts that have slowed shipping on the Panama Canal and Mississippi River this year.”
end excerpt
More lying about the climate from Senator Whitehouse. He thinks weather is climate. He apparently doesn’t know that the weather today is no worse than it was in the past because he keeps claiming it is worse today. The Evidence, and there *is* historical evidence, says weather is not worse today than in the past.
Kook and fossils rule the US Senate.
https://phys.org/news/2023-10-hunga-tonga-hunga-haapai-eruption-depleted-ozone.html
New study shows Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha’apai eruption depleted ozone layer
I’m looking for Ozone Layer experts to weigh in on this.
Looks interesting; at least these people used actual observations rather than computer models. Chances are that the reduction will be of very short term duration and ozone will be at completely normal levels in a few months – we wouldn’t have an ozone layer if it kept losing O3 and not replacing it.
Most ozone production occurs in the tropics and moves polewards in the Brewer-Dobson Circulation cells. After the Circumpolar Vortex forms in the Winter, it blocks the ozone from entering the Antarctic Stratosphere. Shortly after the vortex breaks up in the Austral Spring, ozone levels are usually back to normal.
The latest map that I saw showed the Antarctic ‘hole’ to be typical, with anomalous high concentrations outside the Circumpolar Vortex. The only real difference was that the ‘hole’ started to form about a month early this year and ended up being among the greatest extent in area and low concentrations of ozone. It appears to be localized.
https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2023/08/09/why-some-americans-do-not-see-urgency-on-climate-change/
August 9, 2023
Why Some Americans Do Not See Urgency on Climate Change
In-depth interviews find some Americans consider crisis language overblown, leading to added skepticism of claims
As the Earth’s temperature continues to rise, fueling more intense storms and extreme weather [no evidence any of this is true], scientists are calling for immediate action to address climate change. However, climate change remains a lower priority for some Americans, and a subset of the public rejects that it’s happening at all. . .
“The interviews revealed that language describing climate change as a crisis and an urgent threat was met with suspicion by many participants. The disconnect between crisis rhetoric and the participants’ own beliefs and experiences drove doubt about the motivations of the people making these claims, sowing suspicion and deeper mistrust.
Interviewees widely rejected the national news media as a credible source for climate information. They see these outlets as presenting information that suits their own agendas. Interviewees generally expressed greater openness toward hearing from scientists on climate change because of their subject matter expertise. Still, participants stressed the importance of hearing factual statements from scientists rather than beliefs that may be shaped by their own political leanings or their research funders. . .
When it comes to measures aimed at transitioning the country toward renewable energy, interviewees stressed the importance of respecting individual freedoms – and individual choice – in any energy transition. This theme was underscored by criticism of policies like ending the production of new gas-powered vehicles.”
end excerpts
It sounds like some of those interviewed have been reading WUWT.
Sometimes I think the climate change truth is making progress.
interviewees stressed the importance of respecting individual freedoms – and individual choice – in any energy transition.
That’s the whole point of the climate mania and other closely related “transition” plans. Individuals can’t be allowed to make choices that might create externalities affecting not just their immediate neighbors but the entire planet. Since ICE technological improvements have greatly reduced the 1970s dome of smog over the Los Angeles basin, some of the Yankee faithful believe that technology has the same capacity for other problems everywhere if only individuals will subordinate their own needs to those of the community. However, the community doesn’t delineate its needs in scientific terms or numerology. The scientific community does, through academia. They identify the problems and posit the solutions. But they don’t arrange financing or generally even suggest it because its scope is simply too breathtaking to contemplate. Even now, before the real “work” has begun, the bill is in the trillions of dollars, a sum that is so unimaginable in human experience that no one can actually visualize it.
Every dollar exchanged by anyone on anything is eventually transferred to another human. In the case of the CO2 insanity huge amounts of filthy lucre that are meant to stabilize the climate will end up in the endowments of research universities, the bank accounts of academics, with media shareholders and the management of new industries in the photo-voltaic and wind turbine business. The recipients of these funds are individuals, not by definition “community” members.
https://www.iflscience.com/years-worth-of-rain-in-single-day-leaves-death-valley-with-incredible-ephemeral-lake-71334
The idea of an oasis rising in the middle of a desert to quench the thirst of a stranded soul might sound like something out of a survival movie, but it has become the reality in one of the driest places on Earth.
In Death Valley National Park, the aftermath of Hurricane Hilary has created a rare lake in the middle of the park. The storm dropped 5.6 centimeters of rain (2.2 inches) in a 24-hour period, after it struck late on August 19. This is equivalent to an entire year’s worth of rain for the area.
Death Valley is one of the hottest places on Earth, with record temperatures recorded here of 54.4°C (130°F) in June. It may have also had the hottest midnight ever recorded.
“This is a really special time,” said Superintendent Mike Reynolds in a news release. “It’s pretty rare to see a lake in Death Valley! Badwater Basin has a temporary lake that is several miles long. The lake is only a few inches deep and may dry up within a few weeks.”
end excerpt
This kind of goes along with the article the other day showing the drought in California is gone for the most part, at least temporarily.
https://dailysceptic.org/2023/10/29/2023-is-a-year-of-record-cold-temperatures-but-the-media-are-silent/
Cold kills
The Wash DC judicial process that Mark Steyn is being dragged thru is often absurd and infantile. Mark does an excellent job of taunting and baiting one of Mann’s lawyers. 3 videos are available so far.
http://www.steynonline.com
WUWT should be covering the sham trial that begins – again – tomorrow.
The videos posted are recorded 2020 interrogations of Mark Steyn by Michael Mann’s attorney.
Mark as always give a great entertaining and seriously strong accounting of the facts behind the writing that he did to expose the fraud of MM’s Hockey Schtick.
Mark Steyn is representing himself and needs all the financial help he can get!
Go to his website to help.
We’ve just had a ‘drought rebuttal’ thread and very lovely too.
So that is why, as it’ll be fresh on folks’ minds, I’ll drop this one in here
Two things got me going:
1/ That when watching a rainfall radar on the interweb, sometimes and wherever I might be obviously, the radar says it is raining but stepping/looking outside it is patently not raining.
IOW, Rain is falling from aloft but is evaporating before it gets to the ground
Simple enough
2/ Thunderclouds and the process of charge separation = where ‘stuff’ is moving upwards (ice crystals) but the same sort of stuff (liquid rainwater) is falling downwards, at the same time and through the ‘rising stuff’. They ‘pass each other on the stairs‘ so-to-speak.
Picture this:
We are at a Dry Place suffering drought
A thundercloud arrives and rain starts falling
By definition, air pressure has fallen where we are and there is vigorous uplift
The rain that makes it to the ground (as counted by the rain gauge) will, by definition, be falling on very hot dry ground.
It will evaporate, water vapour is very buoyant so that water vapour will rise and join in (reinforce) the existing uplift.
It will make it into the cloud, condense and fall as rain.
Where the rain gauge will count it as more rain.
But it isn’t, it is rain that fell maybe an hour ago, evaporated, went back aloft, condensed and fell back down again inside that hour.
You counted the same water twice and made no allowance for it by ‘counting’ the water vapour as it was created by the hot dirt and went back aloft.
In the case of the Atmospheric River, where a ‘rain system’ gets stuck and dumps immense amounts of rain (as seen by the rain gauge) on one particular place – are you really sure the water is coming from the ‘river’ or is it just the same water enjoying free multiple trips in an elevator?
An elevator where you’ve only counted it coming down but not going up.
i.e. You might count 6 inches of rain but there was maybe only one inch of real actual water involved because you didn’t count the 5 return trips the water vapour made when it went aloft and turned back into rain
Especially as the vigorous updraught will be creating a surface wind/breeze that will enhance the evaporation.
More: Let’s say your next-door neighbour had some ‘spare water’ –
Those surface breezes would ‘steal’ his water, uplift it into your thundercloud and drop it as rain on you – upshot being to make your rainfall look better but actually make his drought even worse.
Houston: We really do have a problem….
What does Climate Science say about this we wonder – tell me why I’m talking nonsense
Dry lands have a higher runoff coefficient when the rains finally do arrive. Excess overland flows generated from the impenetrable surface.
Rainfall “recycling” is highest in the wet lands, where the runoff coefficient is least.
Water availability (budgets) tend to be maximum where recycling is at maximum. go figure.
This is accomplished through infiltration and subsequent transpiration; water sourced from the root zone and exiting via green growth. A self reinforcing bio-precipitation mechanism, with the updrafts carrying also bacterial & fungal condensation catalysts.
Evaporation is a dry-ing process. Transpiration is a wettening process.
Dry-land evaporation is coupled to precipitation inhibition (anti-catalyst), in the form of hydrostatically charged fine mineral dusts. Dust particles statically charged from bouncing around in the dry breeze. Evaporatively sourced moisture only has available the charged micro dust on which to condense . These agents repel one another like the matching ends of a magnet, unable to accumulate into a falling drop.
Peta,
We see maps from our Aussie BOM showing cyclone tracks that bring rain over the deserts up to 1,500 km or 6 days of travel. That would seem to require recycling rain, since it is rather too much to carry at the start of the journey at the coast and there are few if any roadside diners to top up the rain as it moves along.
Geoff S
Would you pay over $120K for one of these?
https://www.motortrend.com/reviews/2022-lucid-air-grand-touring-performance-yearlong-review-update-8-tow-truck/
Nice ride.
The tow-truck looks ok but not too keen on the immobile modern art sculpture it’s carrying.
If I were to buy an EV for real, it’d be from an existing car manufacturer.
The ISO-NE, New England grid operator uses battery losses at 10% in its reports, but the EIA states: Losses of various storage technologies range from about 35% to less than 20%, for an average of 20.85%; that average has decreased, due to the increased use of li-ion batteries.
The 20.85% excludes electricity consumption of: 1) thermal management of batteries and enclosures, 2) control and monitoring, 3) step-up and step-down transformers, 4) site lighting, O&M, surveillance.
That electricity often is not reported. It may be measured by separate meters.
NOTE: Li-ion battery systems, because of mass production by Tesla and others, have lesser costs per kWh delivered as AC, and lesser percent losses relative to other technologies.
Since about 2017, li-ion systems have become a major part of the US storage system inventory. See Part 4 of URL
BATTERY SYSTEM CAPITAL COSTS, OPERATING COSTS, ENERGY LOSSES, AND AGING
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/battery-system-capital-costs-losses-and-aging
EXCERPT:
Turnkey Capital Cost of Tesla-Megapack Battery Systems
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Tesla is the world’s largest provider of lithium-ion battery systems, that include front-end power electronics, batteries, back-end power electronics, heating and cooling systems for batteries and enclosures
Megapack ratings, MW/MWh, increased from 2021, to 2022, to 2023
Megapack pricing varies due to market conditions
2021 pricing for a 10 Megapack system, 4-h delivery, with installation, about $10 million, or $328/kWh
2022 pricing for a 10 Megapack system, 4-h delivery, with installation, about $16 million, or $412/kWh
2023 pricing for a 10 Megapack system, 4-h delivery, with installation, about $19 million, or $487/kWh
Tesla Megapacks had a 487/328 = 48.5% price increase from 2021 to 2023
Connecting the Megapacks into a system incurs losses, which are represented by the “Tesla design factor”
After applying the factor, the above $/kWh is increased! See URLs and below examples.
https://electrek.co/2022/03/21/tesla-hikes-megapack-prices-backlog-extends/
https://www.tesla.com/megapack/design
1) Example of Turnkey Cost of Large-Scale, Megapack Battery System, 2022 pricing
PG&E, a California utility, placed a battery system in operation at Moss Landing in April 2022
The system consists of 256 Megapacks, rated 182.5 MW/730 MWh, 4-h energy delivery.
Power = 256 Megapacks x 0.770 MW x 0.926, Tesla design factor = 182.5 MW
Energy = 256 Megapacks x 3.070 MWh x 0.929, Tesla design factor = 730 MWh
We assume $1.1 million/Megapack, because of large number of units
Estimated supply by Tesla, 256 Megapacks x $1.1 million = $282 million, or $386/kWh
Estimated supply by Ohers, $62/kWh
All-in, turnkey cost about $448/kWh; 2022 pricing
The primary purpose of this battery system is to absorb midday solar output bulges, and deliver about 80% of it during the peak demand hours of late afternoon/early evening.
Any costs associated with battery systems are charged to ratepayers, taxpayers and added to government debt, i.e., not charged to Owners of solar systems, the grid disturbers.
https://www.10news.com/news/national/pg-es-tesla-megapack-battery-in-san-francisco-now-operational
2) Example of Turnkey Cost of Large-Scale, Megapack Battery System, 2023 pricing
The system consists of 50 Megapack 2, rated 45.3 MW/181.9 MWh, 4-h energy delivery
Power = 50 Megapacks x 0.979 MW x 0.926, Tesla design factor = 45.3 MW
Energy = 50 Megapacks x 3.916 MWh x 0.929, Tesla design factor = 181.9 MWh
Estimate of supply by Tesla, $90 million, or $495/kWh. See URL
Estimate of supply by Others, $14.5 million, or $80/kWh
All-in, turnkey cost about $575/kWh; 2023 pricing
https://www.tesla.com/megapack/design
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/tesla-hikes-megapack-prices-commodity-inflation-soars
Fixed Annual Cost of Megapack Battery Systems; 2023 pricing
Assume a system rated 45.3 MW/181.9 MWh, and an all-in turnkey cost of $104.5 million, per Example 2
Amortize bank loan for 50% of $104.5 million at 6.0%/y for 15 years, $5.291 million/y
Pay Owner return of 50% of $104.5 million at 9%/y for 15 years, $6.359 million/y (9% due to high inflation)
Lifetime (Bank + Owner) payments 15 x (5.291 + 6.359) = $174.75 million
Assume battery daily usage for 15 years at 10%, and losses at 19%
Battery output = 15 y x 365 d/y x 181.9 MWh x 0.1, usage x 1000 kWh/MWh = 99,590,250 kWh delivered to HV grid
(Bank + Owner) payments, $174.75 million / 99,590,250 kWh = 175.5 c/kWh
Less 50% subsidies (ITC, depreciation in 5 years, deduction of interest on borrowed funds) is 87.7c/kWh
At 10% usage, publicized cost, 87.7 c/kWh
At 40% usage, publicized cost, 21.9 c/kWh
Excluded costs/kWh: 1) O&M; 2) system aging, 3) system losses from HV grid to HV grid, 3) any grid extension/augmentation to connect the battery systems, 5) downtime of some parts of the system, 6) decommissioning in year 15, i.e., disassembly, reprocessing and storing at hazardous waste sites.
NOTE 1: The 40% usage is close to Tesla’s recommendation of 60% usage, i.e., not charging above 80% and not discharging below 20%. Tesla’s recommendation was not heeded be Hornsdale Power Reserve owners.
They added Megapacks to offset rapid aging of the original system and to increase the rating of the expanded system.
http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/the-hornsdale-power-reserve-largest-battery-system-in-australia
NOTE 2: Aerial photos of large-scale battery systems with many Megapacks, show many items of equipment, other than the Tesla supply, such as step-down/step-up transformers, switchgear, connections to the grid, land, access roads, fencing, security, site lighting, i.e., the cost of the Tesla supply is only one part of the battery system cost at a site.
NOTE 3: Battery system turnkey capital costs and electricity storage costs likely will be much higher in 2023 and future years, than in 2021 and earlier years, due to: 1) increased inflation rates, 2) increased interest rates, 3) supply chain disruptions, which delay projects and increase costs, 4) increased energy prices, such as of oil, gas, coal, electricity, etc., 5) increased materials prices, such as of tungsten, cobalt, lithium, copper, manganese, etc., 6) increased labor rates.
NOTE 4: World cobalt production was 142,000 and 170,000 metric ton, in 2020 and 2021, respectively, of which the Democratic Republic of the Congo was 120,000 metric ton in 2021.
https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-02-02/Global-cobalt-production-hits-record-in-2021-as-mined-cobalt-output-in-DR-Congo-jumps-22-4.html
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/drc-mining-industry-child-labor-and-formalization-small-scale-mining
Losses of various storage technologies range from about 35% to less than 20%, for an average of 20.85%; …
Why state an average to 4-significant figures when the extremes are less than 2-significant figures? It implies a precision that is not warranted or useful.
Have you included the cost of the electricity to charge it and keep it at full charge in the first place?
Richard,
Tesla recommends to charge to no more than 80%, and to discharge to no less than 20%, to achieve 15 year life, i.e., a maximum of 60% of rated value is available, which gets smaller by 1.5% each year for 15 years, due to aging
According to the EIA, almost all battery systems operate at less than 10% of rating, which yields a battery cost addition of at least 87.7 c/kWh delivered as AC to the HV grid; the cost added to the cost of electricity taken from the HV grid to charge the battery.
Not very economic, in my opinion!
Jim Steele did a fine job of debunking the latest academia fraud regarding the recent grey whale die off. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/10/25/why-the-spike-in-pacific-gray-whales-deaths-is-all-natural/
But he should have made it clear that fake science was from climate fraud central Oregon State University. Where the AGW Ocean Dead Zones fraud was born.
https://www.oregonlive.com/environment/2023/10/likely-culprit-found-for-recent-gray-whale-die-off.html
Now, researchers from Oregon State University have an answer.
The die-offs, according to a study published this week in the journal Science, follow changing conditions in the Arctic Ocean – namely, declines in sea ice cover that lead to a dearth of the crustaceans that gray whales love to eat.
And when the ice periodically returns, it restricts the animals’ access to feeding grounds, so the whales have even less to eat, the researchers found.
While Arctic conditions vary naturally year to year, climate change has magnified the changes in recent years, said the study’s lead author, Joshua Stewart, an ecologist and assistant professor with Oregon State’s Marine Mammal Institute.
“When the whales have both little food available and not much access to their feeding areas in the same year, that’s when we get these big impacts and die-offs,” he said. “And the reason this mortality event is lingering and is more severe than before is likely to be climate-related.”
Strong polar vortex blockage in the lower stratosphere over the North Pacific, and winter in North America.
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=33.8;-90.4;3&l=temperature-anomaly-2m&t=20231030/0000
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=33.8;-90.4;3&l=temperature-anomaly-2m&t=20231101/0000
I commented in the thread about Siemens, seeking information about wind turbine failures, specifically the ones traceable to bearings. I explained my interest in full there, and won’t repeat it here.
I have a second area that I am looking at. I was recently told that chemical storage of energy has reached its peak, meaning to me that the gravimetric energy density of batteries cannot be improved. If that’s true, then we won’t see the sort of battery chemistry breakthrough(s) required to make electric cars truly functional beyond their urban commuter niche. Thus, for example, the much-discussed solid state batteries won’t matter very much.
This was presented to me as a matter of physics. Given that both chemistry and physics were my worst subjects, I am looking for input, but it must be backed by authoritative sources that are understandable to an intelligent, reasonably diligent non-specialist, as opposed to statements not backed by actual evidence. In practice, that means: LINKS.
Have we topped out on EV batteries? That’s the question. If so, why?
Chemical batteries, ie the types of batteries that rely on a chemical change to store electricity, probably are at peak efficiency now – any changes will be minor. Breakthrough’s in battery technology will, if they happen at all, need to use completely different technology; an emergent technology that isn’t on the horizon as yet.
Do you have any links to authoritative sources?
“Have we topped out on EV batteries? That’s the question.”
Toyota claims to be making breakthroughs with a solid-state battery, which they say has greater range than lithium-ion batteries, charges faster, and does not spontaneously combust.
They think these batteries will be ready for the 2025 models.
From what I have read, these will still be lithium-ion batteries but with a solid electrolyte. But, unlike so many people online, I will admit to not knowing enough about the chemistry. If these perform as hyped (big “if”), at an acceptable cost and longevity, it would be a game-changer.
The only drawbacks to EVs are range, charging time, and fire safety. In every other respect, EVs are superior to ICE vehicles. I say this as an owner of a one-ton diesel truck, a mid-size SUV, and a dinky EV that I bought 11 years ago out of the bankruptcy of Think, purely as an experiment.
The promotional articles tout 700-mile ranges (which I would expect to be less in cold weather and uphill), much faster charging, and much greater safety. I think a 400- to 500-mile all-conditions, reliable range, safer EV battery, with the same level of degradation and longevity of what’s out there now, would quickly transform the light passenger vehicle (cars, SUVs, pickup trucks, vans) sector.
I look at all of the so-called “energy alternatives” in purely engineering terms. I think the entire human-caused climate change issue as a type of secular religion, and regard EVs not as causes by ENTIRELY as vehicles with a different fuel and propulsion system. Which is to say: no loyalties to ICE, no membership in the EV cult.
I am skeptical of the solid state battery claims, yet that’s outweighed by this: “I am in favor of whatever works,” with “works” defined as checking the boxes for cost, reliability, range, charging, and safety relative to ICE. If the engineering really is what Toyota claims it to be (and they have a lot of credibility with me), then cost might be the remaining hurdle. Nothing yet on that front, so we shall see.
Time will tell.
EV’s are not evil, they are just not suited for our mass transportation needs right now. At some point in the future, they might be.
Forcing EV’s on the public right now is not the way to go. The way to go is to let the market decide. Of course, our current leaders have an unwarranted fear of CO2, so they think it is crucial to get rid of anything that produces CO2, even if it bankrupts all of us.
Fortunately, this reign of Green Terror may have only a little more time to go.
I think the current generation of EVs are viable urban commuter vehicles. I agree on your second paragraph, but think your third is overdone.
Blocking the polar vortex in the North Pacific is a bad forecast for winter in the US. A lot of energy will be needed.
One of the highest temperature anomalies in the US this year is currently observable in Texas.
See our temperature anomaly map
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=35.0;-99.7;5&l=temperature-anomaly-2m
The IPCC says the GWP number for methane is the forcing from the release of 1 kg of methane relative to 1 kg of carbon dioxide. Currently that number is 86. Hence the media head lines that methane is 86 times more powerful than CO2.
By 2100 methane will have increased in the atmosphere by about 0.5 ppm. Since the comparison is by mass, a similar increase in CO2 would be about 0.18 ppm. So the question is: If CO2 increases from 400.00 ppm to 400.18 ppm, how much will that run up global temperature? Obviously it won’t, it’s essentially nothing, and 86 times nothing is nothing.
Well there are some trailing numbers that come out to a few hundredths of a degree but they’re meaningless. And western governments want to regulate dairy farms, cattle ranching and rice patties over this.
Walk-in Open Border Idiocies
Many countries are saving money by cleaning out their slums, populated with unskilled, uneducated, inexperienced, socially challenged, crime-inclined people
With help of 1) privately financed NGOs (Soros, Hollywood actors, etc.,) and 2) the parasitic, criminal-infested, human trafficking infrastructure, to provide those folks with food, clothing, shelter, transport, etc., as they travel north for weeks, until they finally arrive at our southern border, which is welded open by Biden’s handlers, to enable those folks to walk in unhindered, unvetted, and be distributed far and wide.
The total US cost is at least $100 billion for the first year, $150 billion the second year, $200 billion the third year, on an A-to-Z basis.
We could have finished the wall for one tenth the money, and have none of these society-dividing, unvetted, undocumented illegal aliens
The Statue of Liberty mentions “welcoming the poor, the homeless” made perfect sense in the 19th century with a rapidly expanding industrial economy desperate for uneducated, unskilled workers.
It is long overdue to remove those words and replace them with “we welcome the highly educated and experienced, and those with business ownership experience
Sweden, Germany, France, etc., after much travail, finally are moving to the highly skilled, experienced standard.
They found the present standard has caused major adverse effects, on their societies and cultures
Europe was sucking on Russia’s low-cost energy tits, life was easy, economies were growing, workers were needed.
With high-cost energy and high costs of climate idiocies, unskilled, inexperienced, cultural-clashing folks are just too costly.
Many of them, especially those with criminal records, will be send back to their original countries.
CO2 Emissions
The annual CO2 reductions by the EU/US, etc., are much less than the annual CO2 increases by China/India, etc.
That trend will not change for decades, because China/India, etc., are building hundreds of new, efficient coal plants, that last at least 50 years, and have at least 3 times more CO2/kWh than gas-fired, combined-cycle, gas-turbine power plants, CCGTs, which, in base-loaded mode, have efficiencies of 60+%
Russian Gas
Russia has the 56-inch diameter, 2466-mile, Power of Siberia 1 gas pipeline, capacity 61 bcm, of which up to 38 bcm to China.
Russia will have the 1616-mile Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline from Yamal Peninsula to China, designed to deliver, via Mongolia, up to 50 bcm to China.
That means gas, previously sent to the EU, will go to China.
The EU will be in near-zero, real-growth mode, by importing LNG, mostly from the US, at about 2 to 3 times the price.
China CO2
China has the particulate and CO2 emissions from the factories that were once in the West.
The US climate idiots get to virtue signal, as they consume China’s products
Wokachusetts
Wokeachusetts climate idiots are proudly bragging how energy efficient/clean Wokachusetts is, after having closed almost all of its blue-collar industries.
Wokachusetts has a “clean” economy, based on higher education, hospitals, high tech firms, and tourism.
Mass wokies are so virtuous, because they have a low carbon footprint!
Mass wokies do not mention the carbon footprint of what we import from China, Europe, Mexico, etc.
Complain to enviro-groups and politicians about this absurdity, and you get ignored/blacklisted/cancelled/become unemployable.
Actually, I do not care about any carbon footprint, because CO2 is a very minor actor in the overall CO2 picture
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/co2-is-a-life-gas-no-co2-no-life
Mass wokies get federal money to “welcome” illegal aliens
Mass wokies use federal money to house illegals in up-scale hotels, and feed, clothe, transport, educate, etc., them at huge expense.
The subsidized, lapdog media has been told not to call them undocumented, illegal aliens, but “migrants”.
Another study, just in time for COP28…
Carbon budgets, climate change doom and gloom, and SSP models.
– – – – – – – – –
Climate crisis: carbon emissions budget is now tiny, scientists say
Having good chance of limiting global heating to 1.5C is gone, sending ‘dire’ message about the adequacy of climate action
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/30/climate-crisis-carbon-emissions-budget
Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets
The remaining carbon budget (RCB), the net amount of CO2 humans can still emit without exceeding a chosen global warming limit, is often used to evaluate political action against the goals of the Paris Agreement. RCB estimates for 1.5C are small, and minor changes in their calculation can therefore result in large relative adjustments.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01848-5
Here’s a cartoon for Halloween!