Solar Set to Be Dominant Power Source by… When?

Guest “What is never?” by David Middleton

Why does this remind me of the Monty Python Spanish Inquisition skit?

New Research: The World May Have Crossed a Solar “Tipping Point”

By UNIVERSITY OF EXETER OCTOBER 19, 2023

The world may have crossed a “tipping point” that will inevitably make solar power our main source of energy, new research suggests.

The study, based on a data-driven model of technology and economics, finds that solar PV (photovoltaics) is likely to become the dominant power source before 2050 – even without support from more ambitious climate policies.

However, it warns four “barriers” could hamper this…

[…]

SciTech Daily

“The Momentum of the Solar Energy Transition”

The full text of the paper is available.

Abstract

Decarbonisation plans across the globe require zero-carbon energy sources to be widely deployed by 2050 or 2060. Solar energy is the most widely available energy resource on Earth, and its economic attractiveness is improving fast in a cycle of increasing investments. Here we use data-driven conditional technology and economic forecasting modelling to establish which zero carbon power sources could become dominant worldwide. We find that, due to technological trajectories set in motion by past policy, a global irreversible solar tipping point may have passed where solar energy gradually comes to dominate global electricity markets, without any further climate policies.

[…]

Nijsse et al., 2023

Nobody Expects “the Momentum of the Solar Energy Transition”!

The authors suggest that solar power will become the dominant power source by 2050 without “more ambitious climate policies.” However, four barriers could stand in the way.

Nobody expects “the momentum of the solar energy transition”! Our chief barrier is grid resilience… grid resilience and access to finance… grid resilience and access to finance… Our two barriers are grid resilience and access to finance… and supply chains…. Our three barriers are grid resilience, and access to finance, and supply chains… and an almost fanatical devotion to silencing political opposition… Our four… no… Amongst our barriers… are such elements as grid resilience, access to finance… I’ll come in again.

Apologies to Monty Python

Overcoming the Solar Barriers

  1. “Grid Resilience”: Only use electricity only when the sun is shining.
  2. “Access to finance”: Raise taxes.
  3. “Supply chains”: Drive up the prices of almost all mineral resources.
  4. “Political opposition”: Reeducation camps.

Am I Being Flippant?

  • Grid resilience: Solar generation is variable (day/night, season, weather) so grids must be designed for this. Dr Nijsse said: “If you don’t put the processes in place to deal with that variability, you could end up having to compensate by burning fossil fuels.” She said methods of building resilience include investing in other renewables such as wind, transmission cables linking different regions, extensive electricity storage, and policy to manage demand (such as incentives to charge electric cars at non-peak times). Government subsidies and funding for R&D are important in the early stages of creating a resilient grid, she added.
  • Access to finance: Solar growth will inevitably depend on the availability of finance. At present, low-carbon finance is highly concentrated in high-income countries. Even international funding largely favors middle-income countries, leaving lower-income countries – particularly those in Africa – deficient in solar finance despite the enormous investment potential.
  • Supply chains: A solar-dominated future is likely to be metal- and mineral-intensive. Future demand for “critical minerals” will increase. Electrification and batteries require large-scale raw materials such as lithium and copper. As countries accelerate their decarbonization efforts, renewable technologies are projected to make up 40% of the total mineral demand for copper and rare earth elements, between 60 and 70% for nickel and cobalt, and almost 90% for lithium by 2040.
  • Political opposition: Resistance from declining industries may impact the transition. The pace of the transition depends not only on economic decisions by entrepreneurs but also on how desirable policymakers consider it. A rapid solar transition may put at risk the livelihood of up to 13 million people worldwide working in fossil fuel industries and dependent industries. Regional economic and industrial development policies can resolve inequity and can mitigate risks posed by resistance from declining industries
SciTech Daily

“Even without support from more ambitious climate policies”

Can someone please explain to me how they plan to overcome these barriers “without support from more ambitious climate policies” (AKA massive government intervention)?

Nijsse et al., 2023 envisions the following energy transition:

Bear in mind, this is where we are now in the USA:

EIA

Solar power is very dependent on… the Sun. The annular eclipse on October 14, 2023, did this to ERCOT’s solar power at high noon on a sunny day:

The loss of solar generation was accompanied by the usual midday doldrum. 4,904 MW of solar and wind generation tool a lunch break that day. Fortunately, it occurred on a Saturday, the high temperature was only 63 °F and natural gas-fired generation quickly ramped up to fill the gap.

Timestamp (Hour Ending)Wind (MWh)Wind (ΔMWh)Solar (MWh)Solar (ΔMWh)Natural gas (MWh)Natural gas (ΔMWh)Coal (MWh)Coal (ΔMWh)Nuclear (MWh)Nuclear (ΔMWh)
10/14/2023 11 a.m. CDT12,665 6,100 13,271 5,045 5,045 
10/14/2023 12 p.m. CDT9,709(2,956)4,152(1,948)17,8894,6185,7637185,0461
10/14/2023 1 p.m. CDT7,120(2,589)5,9811,82918,0231346,1644015,0482
EIA Hourly Grid Monitor

There Has Never Been an Energy Transition

All of the blather about the “energy transition” omits a very pertinent fact: There has never been an energy transition. Nor will there ever be an actual energy transition unless we manage to harness nuclear fusion.

We never transitioned from traditional biomass to fossil fuels. On a per capita basis, we consume as much “traditional biomass” for energy as we did when we started burning coal. We have just piled new forms of energy on top of older ones. Now, we have changed the way we consume energy sources. In the 1800’s the biomass came from whale oil and clear-cutting forests. Whereas, today’s biomass is less harmful to whales and forests.

Life Expectancy: Our World in Data
Energy Consumption: Bjorn Lomborg, LinkedIn

From 1800 to 1900, per capita energy consumption, primarily from biomass, remained relatively flat; as did the average life expectancy. From 1900 to 1978, per capita energy consumption roughly tripled with the rapid growth in fossil fuel (coal, oil & natural gas) consumption. This was accompanied by a doubling of average life expectancy. While I can’t say that fossil fuels caused the increase in life expectancy, I can unequivocally state that everything that enabled the increase in life expectancy wouldn’t have existed or happened without fossil fuels, particularly petroleum.

It’s simply absurd to claim that solar power will ever become the dominant power source, with or “without any further climate policies.” Nobody should expect an energy transition. Wishful thinking dressed up as scientific research just encourages politicians to make bad policy decisions.

“Nobody Expects the Spanish Inquisition!”

I just had to include this:

Reference

Nijsse, F.J.M.M., Mercure, JF., Ameli, N. et al. The momentum of the solar energy transition. Nat Commun 14, 6542 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-41971-7

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Scissor
October 25, 2023 10:03 am

Never is a long way away.

John Hultquist
Reply to  Scissor
October 25, 2023 10:44 am

Like infinity, never is a concept, not a destination.

Reply to  John Hultquist
October 25, 2023 11:21 am

To infinity and beyond – the UN need Buzz Lightyear

John Hultquist
Reply to  Energywise
October 25, 2023 6:43 pm

To infinity and beyond was used to advertise a cheap telescope on the back of Popular Mechanics – or some such magazine about 60 years ago.

1saveenergy
Reply to  Scissor
October 25, 2023 10:47 am

Cant be that far because Peter Pan went there !!!
Plus it’s the source of all the fairy dust ( an essential element in most green technology ) mines.

Tom in Florida
Reply to  Scissor
October 25, 2023 12:21 pm

“Free Beer Tomorrow”

Reply to  Scissor
October 25, 2023 4:36 pm

Solar Set to Be Dominant Power Source by… When?

Dyson sphere time.

Reply to  DMacKenzie
October 26, 2023 9:40 am

It might only take a Ringworld for solar to be dominant

MarkW
Reply to  DMacKenzie
October 26, 2023 2:34 pm

I’ve always wondered how the people who live near the poles of a dyson sphere, keep from falling into the sun.

MarkW
Reply to  Scissor
October 26, 2023 2:32 pm

and oddly enough, it never gets closer

William Howard
October 25, 2023 10:08 am

now if we can only find the millions of square miles needed for the solar farms and transmission lines then all will be good

Reply to  William Howard
October 25, 2023 10:35 am

Not that I am recommending solar, but some eco-loon is bound to jump in and take a stab at your comment – so I’m going to steal their thunder….

While the vast desert reaches of the Sahara, Arabian, and other similar barren regions are available, and they have great plans in place to develop, for example, the solar resource – mostly for desalination (easy to store water) – those cases have no bearing on most of the countries represented here on WUWT.

Further, any wide development of any North American desert or plain for solar, and the corresponding regions suitable for wind, would be drowned in lawsuits and regulations (if eco-loons and regulators are consistent).

Bill Kotcher
Reply to  PCman999
October 25, 2023 12:17 pm

What one sees as desolate and useless does serve a purpose.

It is the rare desert that contains no life at all or lacks nature’s beauty.

Using anything as inefficient as solar can only be a last resort.

KevinM
Reply to  PCman999
October 25, 2023 1:12 pm

Extremely harsh environment.

John XB
Reply to  PCman999
October 26, 2023 5:24 am

Desert solar… have those who propose these ever seen a sandstorm?

Reply to  William Howard
October 25, 2023 11:22 am

What about the seabed, no obstacles there……..oh wait a minute!

Richard Page
Reply to  Energywise
October 26, 2023 9:32 am

No, no, float it on top – it’s not like anyone really uses that bit, right?

Reply to  Energywise
October 26, 2023 9:45 am

Just cover the oceans with floating solar panels. Add some floating high-speed rail tunnels powered by the panels and there is no more need for inefficient fossil-fuel based cargo ships.

(why do i think there are actually people who would think that’s a good idea?)

John XB
Reply to  William Howard
October 26, 2023 5:23 am

… and the copper ore to make the copper to make the millions of miles of copper wire for lines, transformers and all the other equipment.

Ron Long
October 25, 2023 10:16 am

So when the air conditioners come on it’s coal and natural gas that save the day, says figure EIA. What is going to happen when the Sun God (Helios, Apollo, or Huitzilopochtli) starts charging a user fee? Huh? Wait for it. Or don’t.

Reply to  Ron Long
October 25, 2023 11:23 am

Do solar panels work in an ice age?

JamesB_684
Reply to  Energywise
October 25, 2023 1:08 pm

Under a great deal of dirty ice?

Richard Page
Reply to  JamesB_684
October 26, 2023 9:35 am

I was thinking of low temperatures and solar. Silly me for not thinking of the mile of ice covering it.

Rick C
Reply to  Ron Long
October 26, 2023 10:01 am

Good point. Also when we replace 200 million + ICE cars with plugin EVs when exactly will be off-peak time for charging? I know it won’t be over night when our primary source is solar. Peak production will be about 4 hours from 10:00a to 2:00p Let’s see 200 million times 30 kWh / 4 hours = 1500 GW. That’s new capacity in addition to the 46,000 GW average we already use in the US.

A transition to wind/solar by never is optimistic.

Reply to  Rick C
October 26, 2023 1:25 pm

Rick C –

There is no intention of allowing the 200M+ ICEVs to be replaced. Most folk will get sandals – they don’t need charging.

Reply to  Ron Long
October 26, 2023 1:24 pm

Air conditioning will not be permitted in the glorious future.

barryjo
Reply to  Retired_Engineer_Jim
October 26, 2023 3:36 pm

Invest in Right Guard immediately.

Tom Halla
October 25, 2023 10:19 am

The continental US is some four hours wide, and the US is the third largest country by area. So one issue is storage, as well as the diffuseness of solar.
Economic models are apparently even worse than climate models if they think solar is viable.

Reply to  Tom Halla
October 25, 2023 11:24 am

The AGW mob say humans are pushing the planet to global boiling point – do they know solar PV efficiency drops off above 30degC? Someone should include it in a model

Bryan A
October 25, 2023 10:20 am

Solar really can’t work without Massive Costly Battery Storage.

Solar only produces power when the sun is shining
People use power 24/7
Solar only produces something close to nameplate from 10am til 2pm local time.
People use power 24/7
To provide the power people need 24/7 solar has to produce it all from 10am til 2pm local time.
What isn’t used between 10 and 2 needs to be stored until it is needed.
Massive and Costly Battery Storage is required to keep the energy gathered between 10 and 2 until it’s needed (the battery will need to go from depleted to full in 4 hours when solar is somewhat effective).
To fill this battery storage from solar will require almost 6 times the capacity over what is used from 10am til 2pm

bobpjones
Reply to  Bryan A
October 25, 2023 11:12 am

When they specify nameplate, do they also state the latitude?

Bryan A
Reply to  bobpjones
October 25, 2023 7:19 pm

And time of year…
Winter sun delivers far less energy than Summer sun

cgh
Reply to  Bryan A
October 25, 2023 8:49 pm

And latitude matters deeply in the production of solar.The greater the latitude or distance from the equator the less solar power production.

Reply to  Bryan A
October 25, 2023 11:25 am

Your first 4 words sum up the situation perfectly

MarkW
Reply to  Bryan A
October 25, 2023 11:29 am

And that assumes that clouds, or a partial solar eclipse don’t block the sun during that time.

JamesB_684
Reply to  Bryan A
October 25, 2023 1:11 pm

Solar and wind cannot really work without a massive build up of clean, reliable, nuclear energy production.

Rud Istvan
Reply to  JamesB_684
October 25, 2023 2:13 pm

Actually, the big commercial nuclear plants are baseload. They do not cycle easily—too much thermal mass. So they won’t help with intermittency. That job is best done by CCGT, which can cycle rapidly anywhere from 100% to 40%. They cannot operate below 40% load—not enough steam.

Beta Blocker
Reply to  Rud Istvan
October 25, 2023 4:49 pm

The oncoming SMR’s will do a better job of load-following than the current generation of large reactors can do.

The problem is that when a reactor isn’t generating power, or is operating at reduced power, it isn’t generating as much income. SMR-type reactors which are technically good at load following must be given a rate structure which allows the owners to recover their capital and operating costs.

What is known but not acknowledged in the nuclear industry is that rising prices for electricity driven by wind & solar mandates create a more friendly economic environment for nuclear power — at least in those power markets where regulators allow access to the new money.

cgh
Reply to  Rud Istvan
October 25, 2023 8:52 pm

Wrong. All nuclear power plants can be operated on load following. EdF has a number of its reactors set to follow load on a daily basis. And you should know that.

cgh
Reply to  JamesB_684
October 25, 2023 8:51 pm

And if you have nuclear, who needs solar and wind for anything? They are of no actual use compared to nuclear.

mleskovarsocalrrcom
October 25, 2023 10:21 am

The propaganda is strong with this one.

J Boles
October 25, 2023 10:26 am

Anybody else follow this RV nomad? He just built a solar panel array in Arizona, has some big lithium batts to store it. Solar is okay on a small scale for special apps if the limitations are acceptable, but not for everyone all the time.
Off-Grid Power in CHEAP Lithium Batteries from Redodo ~ 800ah LiFeE04 – YouTube

barryjo
Reply to  J Boles
October 26, 2023 3:39 pm

The same applies to wind.

October 25, 2023 10:27 am

Even if I was an eco-loon (instead of a common-sense-Canuck) I would be upset that governments are forcing a build out of wind, solar and battery storage that is practically obsolete when finally installed and being built at inflated prices, which also have inflated the prices of energy and everything else – definitely hurting marginalized and racialized groups disproportionately!

Since the tech needs to improve a lot, I can understand funding research.

I can understand building out nuclear power, which can be built at an affordable price if the regulators regulate instead of just drowning projects in red tape just to justify their existence and possibly serve hidden masters in the anti-nuke cult.

I can even understand phasing out coal in favour of CCGTs, if the scrubbers aren’t good enough.

But I can’t understand governments subsidizing and fanatics insisting on alpha version tech that is destined for the landfill before it’s time – the tech say 10 years from now will be better enough that the developer will replace the existing units with new ones to maximize profits.

michael hart
Reply to  PCman999
October 25, 2023 11:08 am

My best explanation (in the UK) is that governments were simply duped. They were convinced that what was needed was subsidies to ‘prime the pump’ then the free market would do the rest. Once the market was properly established, costs would come down over time and everything in the garden would be rosy.

The treasury is gradually trying to make it harder by withdrawal of subsidies as reality begins to bite.

Of course, the green-spending departments and associated enviro-leeches start to squeal like stuck pigs. But the Treasury is the most powerful department which gets it’s way unless the Cabinet (=Prime Minister) says otherwise.

gezza1298
Reply to  michael hart
October 25, 2023 1:00 pm

Well, in the last capacity auction the government set a low price, possibly in response to the wind industry crowing about how cheap they are, and nobody signed up to provide any wind generation.

michael hart
Reply to  gezza1298
October 25, 2023 2:43 pm

Exactly.

cgh
Reply to  michael hart
October 25, 2023 8:56 pm

It’s a little more complicated than that. Energy is a complex discussion, and governments don’t do complex discussions with voters. They are incapable of it.

And they really don’t care. The principle object of any politician is to get reelected. So an easy political choice is wind/solar. And then the political problem of public energy policy goes away until the next term in office.

Reply to  cgh
October 26, 2023 1:31 pm

“… governments don’t do complex …” is all one needs to say. Given a complex topic, the government just kicks that can down the road.

MarkW
Reply to  PCman999
October 25, 2023 11:34 am

the tech say 10 years from now will be better

There is no science to support such a belief.

KevinM
Reply to  MarkW
October 25, 2023 1:24 pm

I wonder what they want to optimize? With some tech it was yield or size or density – mostly to improve cost. For example improved production yield and product reliability dropped flat screen TVs from us $10k to a $500 in two decades, and now everybody has several. It seems like solar cells can be made pretty well in high volume and useful form factors as of years ago. What improvement would make solar more worthwhile for broader use?

MarkW
Reply to  KevinM
October 25, 2023 5:51 pm

Flat screens have lots of parts. a 1080p screen has 1,920 columns multiplied by 1,080 rows for a total of 2,073,600 pixels. The newer 4K screens have 3,840 columns and 2,160 rows of pixels. 8,294,400 pixels.
That’s for a black and white monitor. If you want color you have to multiply by 3.

And all those pixels have to work. A single dead pixel can ruin a display. And a bad pixel can’t be replaced.

Before an integrated circuit or a solar cell can be made, you first need to create an ingot of pure silicon. Early ingots were only an inch or two in diameter. Last time I read up on the process, the ingots had gotten up to about 6 inches. I wasn’t able to find anything indicating how big the current largest ingots are.
Why does this matter?
Because thin slices of these ingots is what solar cells are made of. The ingots are sliced into thin slices, then are doped with various chemicals to create the solar cell.
The cells are then tested to verify that they meet standards, then a large number of them are mounted on a board of some kind, wired together and then sealed to protect them from the weather.
This system is already automated. The vast majority of cells that are generated pass these tests. I don’t know what the actual current pass rate is, but if it’s 98%, increasing it to 99% won’t provide much of a cost savings.
The process is similar for solar cells that are being made from things other than silicon.
Individual wafers can be made bigger by making the ingots bigger. The industry is already working on that, because the more individual ICs that you can squeeze onto a single wafer, the cheaper you can make those ICs.

There simply aren’t any places where major cost savings can be found.

Dennis Gerald Sandberg
October 25, 2023 10:34 am

Author: …renewable technologies are projected to make up 40% of the total mineral demand for copper and rare earth elements, between 60 and 70% for nickel and cobalt, and almost 90% for lithium by 2040.
Comment: plus the minerals for a few 100 million BEV’S? Any chance that quantitatively the author has missed some issues? Incredible.

Bryan A
Reply to  Dennis Gerald Sandberg
October 25, 2023 10:46 am

I read someplace that it will take more than 4 times the current available Copper mining capacity just to replace all current ICE vehicles in the UK. And more than 5 times THAT to replace those in the USA

A !ere 40% must be S L O W G R O W T H and not replacement by 2040

Bryan A
Reply to  Bryan A
October 25, 2023 10:47 am

Missed the word GLOBAL
that copper is current Global Mining Capacity

KevinM
Reply to  Bryan A
October 25, 2023 1:26 pm

“Not enough resources” arguments don’t usually look good in 10 years.

D. J. Hawkins
Reply to  KevinM
October 25, 2023 6:44 pm

It takes about that long to get a mine into production. How many are currently under development? Not enough to get you where you want to be by 2045. Which used to be 2035. Which used to be 2025. I can’t help but sense a pattern here…

Bryan A
Reply to  D. J. Hawkins
October 25, 2023 7:23 pm

Goal Posts…Goal Posts…keep on moving Goal Posts

Reply to  D. J. Hawkins
October 26, 2023 1:35 pm

Sort of like fusion power is just around the corner?

Reply to  Bryan A
October 25, 2023 1:28 pm

Looks like a great time to invest in mining machinery! A good example of a fine capitalist industry happy to see the climate emergency.

Reply to  Bryan A
October 26, 2023 12:34 am

The ecolooons don’t want to replace every ICE vehicle, they want most of us to go by bus.

Reply to  Dennis Gerald Sandberg
October 26, 2023 1:33 pm

Math is hard (and, of course, racist).

October 25, 2023 10:42 am

Governments of the world should start convincing people of the potential of solar energy in a simple way. Manufacture an outdoor garden light that is solar powered and can be given away free to each home. Make one that puts out the light equivalent of a 25 watt incandescent bulb. Make it put out that much light all night until dawn. Make it do this every day for 10 years without losing brightness or duration. If something as simple as that can’t be done first, then there’s no use in trying to go any further.

Reply to  Hoyt Clagwell
October 25, 2023 11:30 am

I have solar lights in the garden – they work for an hour in autumn/winter – is this where our grids heading?!

Tom in Florida
Reply to  Energywise
October 25, 2023 12:23 pm

Mine last until about 2 AM. But nothing good ever happens after Midnight so I guess that would be OK.

Reply to  Energywise
October 25, 2023 1:03 pm

The house I moved to in the spring of 2022 has a solar powered light over the south facing side door. The PV on its upper surface is about 6.5″ x 2.75″. The down facing side has 29 square LEDs, 3mm on a side, spaced over its surface, a motion detector taking the place of what could be the 30’th LED in the LED array. It is switched on and off by the presence/absence of sunlight.

Situated right below the rain gutter, it constantly produces enough light to see the landing area immediately below it. When the door is opened from the inside, or approached on the outside, the motion detector switches it from idle light mode to full brightness, making using a door key easy and assuring safe footing. Maybe not equal to a “25 watt” incandescent bulb but quite bright in the nighttime.

In the summer I have often been up when the rising sun gets bright enough to turn it off. From beginning of night until then, it remains on at all times. This is in spite of what I suspect is a fault: with no nearby motion, quite a few times each night, it flares to full brightness at random intervals and stays lit for 10 seconds or so (as observable from the kitchen window). That means significantly more battery drain than if it stayed at minimum brightness until motion triggered, but it still produces light as long as it is dark outside.

I have no idea where it came from as there are no identification markings on it and I have no idea how long it has been there.

MarkW
Reply to  Hoyt Clagwell
October 25, 2023 11:37 am

Make sure it works in winter, when days are short, nights are long and it is cold all of the time.

KevinM
Reply to  Hoyt Clagwell
October 25, 2023 1:28 pm

Make it do this every day for 10 years without losing brightness or duration. If something as simple as that …

Simple? Nothing has ever worked that well.

John Hultquist
October 25, 2023 10:43 am

 The Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) has a category in its power sector called “Fossil/Biomass” that means burning stuff. Mostly this involves burning waste from paper and wood products and landfill gas. About once per month I take “my stuff” to a transfer station (dump) and see others dumping burnable materials. It goes to a landfill about 70 miles away. I predict that more of this will be used to produce electricity when the climate-scam dies.
The first chart of this post shows nuclear decreasing. That, I think, is wrong.

JamesB_684
Reply to  John Hultquist
October 25, 2023 1:31 pm

If that was true, why would the Uranium Nuclear Energy ETF (NLR) be rising over the past 7 months? URNM and URA etfs are up big this month.

Companies like X-Energy and NuScale Power are signing contracts to build reactors (pending NRC certification or recertification, respectively).

KevinM
Reply to  John Hultquist
October 25, 2023 1:36 pm

I think a lot of readers looked at the Nuclear category of the charts questioningly. One can only assume the authors didn’t know what to do with it, so they assumed it would keep goig on the same way it seems to have gone for about 30 years. Rabid resistance may have given way ti willful ignorance, leaving people who care, both for and against, as historical footnotes.

Beta Blocker
Reply to  John Hultquist
October 25, 2023 4:29 pm

“The first chart of this post shows nuclear decreasing. That, I think, is wrong.”

Nuclear gigawatt hours produced worldwide will grow substantially in the next forty years. What the chart shows is that nuclear’s percentage of the world’s total energy production will decline as solar PV takes on the bulk of the world’s energy production. Or so the authors claim. It’s all horse puckey of course, but lots of people believe it.

MarkW
Reply to  Beta Blocker
October 25, 2023 5:58 pm

A lot of nuclear power plants are older. As units are being retired due to age, they aren’t being replaced by newer nuclear units.

Rud Istvan
October 25, 2023 10:51 am

‘Research’ has taken on a new meaning. Models of pixie dust.

Curious George
Reply to  Rud Istvan
October 25, 2023 2:27 pm

“based on a data-driven model of technology and economics”
So they know when the next Great Depression comes?

strativarius
October 25, 2023 10:51 am

I think they’ll have more luck in banishing the night than of being energy source #1

michael hart
October 25, 2023 10:52 am

“Solar energy is the most widely available energy resource on Earth.”

Last time I checked, there is no place on Earth where the wind never blows.
But there is still not much solar at night and in polar winters for months on end.

There is another place where the sun don’t shine, which is probably the best place for that person’s opinions.

D. J. Hawkins
Reply to  michael hart
October 25, 2023 6:49 pm

Actually, for topological reasons, there is always at least one place on earth where the wind doesn’t blow.

James Snook
October 25, 2023 10:56 am

This pathetic ‘research’ was funded in part by the U.K. Department of Energy. Little wonder that the U.K. is in such a mess. Exeter is vying to be the Potsdam Institute of the U.K.

Incredibly (from the link): “During COP28, a research team led by the University of Exeter will publish the first Global Tipping Points Report, the most comprehensive ever assessment of climate tipping points and positive tipping points that could help tackle the climate crisis.”

The hubris is mind boggling!

Reply to  James Snook
October 25, 2023 11:37 am

Can they also predict when the Yellowstone volcano will blow, when the asteroid Apophis will hit and if aliens will eventually make contact (maybe they have a way to control the climate?)

Tom in Florida
Reply to  Energywise
October 25, 2023 12:19 pm

Well, Apophis is scheduled to hit Earth in 2036, Aliens have already made contact, so as Meatloaf sang, Two out of Three Ain’t Bad.

MarkW
Reply to  Tom in Florida
October 25, 2023 6:01 pm

Apophis is scheduled for a close pass only. Do you have evidence that is somewhat better than unidentified lights?

Tom in Florida
Reply to  MarkW
October 26, 2023 6:10 pm

Apophis will supposedly do a close pass in 2029 and then return in 2036. Now, the government will not let on that it has a very good chance of hitting Earth. That would cause all kinds of panic and disrupt future investing. As for aliens, “A Truth Revealed” by Timothy Brown and his follow up “Another Truth Revealed” are supposed to be based on true events. Both are on Kindle. If actually only mostly true, it is good evidence of alien presence.

MarkW
Reply to  Tom in Florida
October 27, 2023 2:19 pm

They’ve refined the orbit of Apophis sufficiently to determine that it will not pass through the keyhole in its 2029 pass so it won’t be hitting the Earth in its 2036 pass.

Haven’t read that book, but all the other ones that I have read, their “evidence” has always been on the lines of, here’s something strange, it must be space aliens. Or there’s no way our ancestors could have done this without help, must have been space aliens.

As to writing a book, when you only present the evidence that supports your case and don’t let anyone challenge your interpretation of the evidence you do present, anyone can prove anything.

Dave Andrews
Reply to  James Snook
October 26, 2023 6:55 am

Exeter is actually bent on outdoing the Potsdam Institute. It has a number of wackos including James Dyke author of ‘Fire, Storm and Flood: The violence of of climate change’

October 25, 2023 11:13 am

leaving lower-income countries – particularly those in Africa – deficient in solar finance despite the enormous investment potential.

Can’t seem to wrap my mind around that statement. How is there enormous investment potential in a lower income country?

Tom in Florida
Reply to  David Middleton
October 25, 2023 12:20 pm

Yeah, that stops working when most people lose the ability to do anything.

October 25, 2023 11:20 am

I hate to be pee on the parade, but has anyone analysed the risk to solar of volcanic activity and resultant ash? I know, it will never happen……………..

John Hultquist
Reply to  Energywise
October 25, 2023 2:01 pm

 I lived 250 miles east of Mt. Saint Helens. My house got ½ inch of very fine ash. A nice mess, it was. No solar panels to worry about.

MarkW
Reply to  Energywise
October 25, 2023 6:03 pm

Volcanoes are fortunately, quite rare. Your panels will be covered by dust long before they need to worry about ash.

Bob
October 25, 2023 11:25 am

How do these people keep their jobs. This is nonsense, is there no one checking their work. I would fire all of them.

Editor
October 25, 2023 11:34 am

Thanks for the post, David…educational and entertaining once again. I believe the one of the crossbeams on the common-sense treadle used by Nijsse et al., 2023 was askew.

Regards,
Bob

Greg61
October 25, 2023 12:10 pm

You’re making this too complicated. We simply need to return to a lifestyle and technology that pre dates the discovery of fire. Simple.

Greg61
Reply to  Greg61
October 25, 2023 12:17 pm

Ooops sorry, I just modelled that suggestion, and the methane released by 7.5 billion dead humans that would result from this would actually increase the worlds temperature, at least for a little while.

Reply to  Greg61
October 25, 2023 1:08 pm

Pre dating agriculture will do it. Then forest for firewood will grow faster than people — and there will be no government grant money.

October 25, 2023 12:35 pm

The study, based on a data-driven model of technology and economics

I suppose it depends how you define “data”.

It also depends on how you define “study”, “based”, “driven”, “model”, “technology” and “economics”.

Making fun of this toxic sludge is the best alternative to weeping in dismay at the demise of the 18th century Enlightenment. It had a good run of 250 years. Age of Reason, RIP. We miss you.

Mr Ed
October 25, 2023 12:39 pm

I read a book back in ’04.. Seeing What’s Next: Using Theories of Innovation to Predict Industries
Change. I found it quite interesting, especially a few years later during the big crash in 08-09
in energy. The theory of disruptive innovation has many examples, the one that rose up during
that time was fracking. Another one that failed that I really liked was Green Crude. Using a
genetically modified algae that mimicked crude oil. But solar electrical power seems to miss
all the buttons of disruptive innovation..I’ve made a few dollars in the stock market using the
parameters of disruptive innovation, starting with a purchase of Microsoft stock at under $5/sh
back in the early 90’s.

October 25, 2023 1:09 pm

“Decarbonisation plans across the globe require zero-carbon energy sources to be widely deployed by 2050 or 2060”.

Across the globe? What planet might that be?

Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
October 25, 2023 1:10 pm

“a global irreversible solar tipping point”

WTF?

Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
October 25, 2023 1:15 pm

“Political opposition”: Reeducation camps.

Jordon Peterson is being sent to one by his professional licensing board in Canada. He doesn’t really need the license so could just ignore it but he’s going to do it just to play rough with them. He’s had on his YouTube channels many climate skeptics. I don’t agree with all his views but I do respect his opinions and I do enjoy most of his videos.

Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
October 26, 2023 1:42 pm

When did it slip to 2060?

Reply to  Retired_Engineer_Jim
October 26, 2023 2:01 pm

Not here in Wokeachusetts. It’s 362 pages of climate emergency totalitarianism. Every state agency must participate. All hands on deck! I’m planning on studying it- then ranting about it- and maybe making a video about the insanity. Check it out, everyone.

Statewide Hazard Mitigation and Climate Adaptation Plan

Philip in New Zealand
October 25, 2023 2:30 pm

Not only do they require new builds but every existing solar plant will have or be approaching the end of it’s life by 2050.

October 25, 2023 2:38 pm

The sad/frightening thing is there is a significant percent of the populace who will swallow this nonsense hook, line and sinker.

1saveenergy
Reply to  Barnes Moore
October 25, 2023 5:47 pm

& we give them the vote !!!