Consider Manhattan Contrarian as your go-to source for the latest on New York’s progress toward green energy utopia.
Can you remember all the way back to December 19, 2022? That’s the day that New York’s Climate Action Council officially adopted its “Scoping Plan,” telling us all how we are going to achieve, among other goals, 70% of statewide electricity from renewable energy sources by 2030 and a zero-emissions electricity system by 2040. The biggest part of the grand plan consists of some 9,000 MW (nameplate capacity) of offshore wind turbines to be built by 2035. As of the time of the Scoping Plan, the state claimed that some 4,300 MW out of the 9,000 MW of upcoming offshore wind projects were under “active development.”
On the very day that the Scoping Plan got finalized, I had a post titled “On To The Great Future Of Offshore Wind Power.” That post noted that even of the 4.300 MW of offshore wind supposedly under “active development,” not one turbine was operating, or even under construction. Several developers had made bids that had been accepted by the state, and some of those developers were getting kind of close to applying for permits. My prediction was: “Expect long delays and demands for lots more money before anything gets built.” Boy, can I call these things.
Shall we check back in for the latest information?
Just ten days ago, on October 5, I had an update on offshore wind developments throughout the Mid-Atlantic and New England. For New York, the news was that in September essentially all the developers of the New York projects in “active development” had demanded massive price increases, ranging from about 30% at the low end to almost 65% at the high end. The new prices being demanded by the developers would now be between $140-190 per MWh, which would be at least double to more than triple the prices charged by new natural gas plants.
So how did that go over? To its credit, the state Public Service Commission wasted no time in rejecting the price hike demands of the developers. On October 12 the Commission issued its decision on the Petitions of the developers for price relief. Excerpt from the press release:
The New York State Public Service Commission (Commission) today denied petitions filed by a group of offshore wind developers and a state renewable energy trade association seeking billions of dollars in additional funding from consumers for four proposed offshore wind projects and 86 land-based renewable projects. In denying financial relief, the Commission opted to preserve the robust competitive bidding process that provides critically needed renewable energy resources to New York in the fairest and most cost-effective manner that protects consumers.
OK then, what happens next? The New York Times has a write-up here on October 12. The Times quotes the Chair of the PSC, one Rory Christian, as standing up for the sanctity of the public bidding process:
Rory Christian, the chairman of the Public Service Commission, the state’s utility regulator, said that providing relief to the winning bidders would set an untenable precedent. “Taking exception today almost guarantees that we will be asked to do this again in the future,” he said. Mr. Christian added that the state’s ratepayers, who would have borne the cost, could not serve as an “unlimited piggy bank” for companies to tap. “We have a deal,” he said to the developers, calling on them to stand by the terms they agreed to.
Well, Rory, I’ve got news for you: the developers aren’t going to honor the deal. You’re going to have to hold a new auction. And the prices that will be bid will be as high or higher than those just demanded by these developers.
Oh, and then don’t expect any new round of accepted bids to stick either. The developers will come back again and again for new rounds of price increases. What’s to stop them? After all, they have you over a barrel. You have a “Climate Act” and a “Scoping Plan” that basically require you to build out a grid powered by “renewables,” whether that is feasible or not, and then limit your options to mostly offshore wind.
And meanwhile, until the next round of bids is held, we’re back to square one. We have a statutory requirement of 70% of our electricity from “renewables” by 2030, and a “Scoping Plan” that sees that goal being achieved largely through offshore wind turbines. And we have not one single operating offshore wind turbine, nor any under construction, nor, after the recent contract repudiations, any actively moving through the permitting process. At least for now, the whole thing is dead in the water.
The Times quotes a guy named Fred Zalcman, director of the New York Offshore Wind Alliance:
[T]he commission’s decision “puts these projects in serious jeopardy and deals a potentially fatal blow to the progress these projects have made. . . .”
By the way, the prices recently demanded by the offshore wind developers, in the range of $140-190/MWh, do not include anything for the transmission upgrades needed to deliver this power into the grid, nor anything for the storage or back-up needed to transform intermittent wind power into a useful 24/7 resource. The sooner we pull the plug on this whole endeavor, the better. But we are now only in the first phases of the collapse.
UPDATE, October 16, 2023: Meanwhile, I should have mentioned that New York City apartment buildings remain under a mandate from “Local Law 97” to convert to electric heat by 2030 or face large fines. The electricity is supposed to come from the offshore wind farms that, for the time being, are completely suspended. Go to the link in the sidebar to listen to Jane’s podcast on this subject.
For those who enjoy an acronymonius discussion, I suggest to Francis Menton that the Manhattan Contrarian blog formally establish a Net Zero Crash Test Dummy Watch List, the NZCTDWL.
The NZCTDWL will track those specific energy projects or energy policy decisions which will have the most immediate and acute adverse consequences if these continue forward on schedule.
Some initial candidates for the list would include:
— New York offshore wind
— Virginia offshore wind
— Closure of NYC load pocket peaker plants
— The NYC electric heating mandate
— Energy supply for Micron’s New York chip plant
— Closure of the Eraring power station in Australia in 2025
— Rescue of Diablo Canyon by 2025
— Upcoming retirements of PacificCorp’s Wyoming coal plants
— Progressive retirements of California’s gas-fired power plants
Add as many more Net Zero projects to this initial list as you like, the criteria for inclusion being that: 1) the scope of each project or policy decision is more narrowly defined relative to the larger class of Net Zero implemenation issues; and 2) that the adverse consequences are both quickly felt and highly visible.
Story tip.
https://amp-9news-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.9news.com.au/article/72f363b7-376c-415e-8bc5-860415e119b1?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQIUAKwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16975227917952&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.9news.com.au%2Fnational%2Feastern-golf-course-clubhouse-destroyed-in-ferocious-blaze-northeast-of-melbourne-in-yering%2F72f363b7-376c-415e-8bc5-860415e119b1
‘Where Were You When the Lights Went Out’ was a comedy movie in the ’60s about a power failure in New York.
New York City during a blackout nowadays would be no laughing matter.
Decarbonising a run…:
The organisers of the London Marathon are to begin paying to remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere while aiming to become net zero by 2030.
Using a “climate levy” of £26 on all international participants, London Marathon Events (LME) will pay carbon removal company CUR8 to pull 280 tonnes of CO2 from the air, increasing this amount each year.
Why not follow Zola Budd’s example; go barefoot?
Story Tip https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-67126815 continuing the myth that wind turbines are emission free.
Clearly a mandate driven seller’s market. How high will the prices go?
New York is also the state that won’t allow development of gas in the Marcelles shale region nor will they allow any new gas pipelines in the state and just shut down a large nuclear power plan supplying carbon free electricity for NYC. Perhaps they will be able to tap into the additional nuclear power that Canada will bring on line in the next few years.
Another great essay from The Contrarian!
UK is doing the same thing. Lets convert everyone to EVs and heat pumps. But there isn’t enough electricity, and what there is, it isn’t renewable.
So lets go out to tender for huge amounts of wind. But people are not bidding at any acceptable price and are cancelling their existing contracts and walking, so we are not going to be able to get it installed.
And even if they would bid, and even if we could get it installed, it would not be enough because of intermittency, and we have no plans to install the parallel network that would be required to make the wind at all usable.
And after we had done all those impossible things we come up against the really major, why didn’t we think of that, one. And that is that like New York State, Britain only does a tiny fraction of the worlds emissions. Around 1.5% – don’t know what the NY number is.
So even if you could do the three impossible things before 2030, 2035 or 2050 or whenever, you would have had no effect on what you claim to be the reason for embarking on it all.
Meanwhile, China, in the first six months of this year, approved more additional coal fired generation than the UK has total generation.
Innumerate idiocy.
NY doesn’t have much of a coastline. Where do they think they’ll put all the wind factories?
“…70% of statewide electricity from renewable energy sources by 2030 and a zero-emissions electricity system by 2040…”
If I were 20 years younger I’d set up a betting pool that they won’t accomplish that objective. I think I’d give 10 to 1 odds that they’d fail. My big chance to become a billionaire. Unfortunately, I’m now 74 and probably won’t be around in ’40.
Those turbines are a bit small. 315 ft to the top of the Statue of Liberty
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/20/national-geographics-junk-science-how-long-will-it-take-for-sea-level-rise-to-reach-midway-up-the-statue-of-liberty/
These days hub heights are over 150m and rotor diameters up to 260m. Starting to rival some of the taller Manhattan buildings.
Utopia is not going so well over here either.
Electric truck maker Volta to collapse with 600 UK jobs at risk
Oh, why’s that?
“The recent news that our battery supplier (Proterra) has filed for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy, has had a significant impact on our manufacturing plans, reducing the volume of vehicles that we had forecast to produce.”
Oh, bad luck.
“The uncertainty with our battery supplier also negatively affected our ability to raise sufficient capital in an already challenging capital-raising environment for electric vehicle players.”
Who would have thought there would be a reluctance to fund Utopia.
Electric truck maker Volta to collapse with 600 UK jobs at risk (msn.com)
You forgot to replace the Liberty Statue’s torch with a pinwheel.
They did it, they replaced the torch! G*d da*m you all to h*ll!
h/t Charlton Heston
From the article: “You have a “Climate Act” and a “Scoping Plan” that basically require you to build out a grid powered by “renewables,” whether that is feasible or not”
That sums this approach up in a nutshell.
The New York legislature passes these laws with no idea of the consequences, or requirements, and now New York bureaucrats are locked into an untenable position, and they will continue in that untenable position until the whole thing fails.
I’m sure glad I don’t live in New York State. It’s Democrat leaders are a bunch of fools, heading the State to destruction. New York City Mayor Adams goes to South America to fix the immigrant problem for his city rather than going to the White House where the problem originates. Clueless.
Colorado’s Governor is trying to give NY a run for the unachievable award:
https://denvergazette.com/news/colorad-3-billion-energy-upgrade-mandate-takes-effect-october-15/article_639dc12c-6a0c-11ee-93a6-bb5d7043fbaf.amp.html
Some interesting real world data on renewable grid generation vs. capacity vs. curtailment.
Texas generates about 28% of its electricity via renewables, and has about 2.5% of its overall generation curtailed (12.2 million MWh curtailment vs. 481.84 million MWh generated overall). This is via roughly 60GW of renewables vs. 80 GW of everything else.
Spain today is roughly 50% renewable output with 75 GW of renewable vs. 40 GW of non renewables. Spain is curtailing around 3.8% of its overall generation, but Spain is also targeting 75% to 80% renewable output by 2030 at which point curtailment is estimated to be over 5% even with massive transmission upgrades (i.e. connectors to France to dump excess power). The generation mix will have to basically double – 75GW to 80GW additional renewable capacity with presumably existing non-renewable to halve.
Both Spain and Texas are notable for natural gas access: Texas because of the Permian and Spain because of LNG plus Algerian gas.
For New York to go all or even mostly renewable – the Spain experience says roughly overall capacity, if wind and/or solar, must significantly increase. New York presently is about 48% nuclear and hydro with 3% wind and negligible solar. I think it is safe to say the prospect for more hydro and nuclear is zero, meaning a whole lot of wind and solar will have to be built, which in turn means lots of curtailment. New York generation now is roughly 150 GW – so at least another 75 GW of wind/solar will need to be built after which curtailment is likely to be 5% or more meaning 500,000 MWh of curtailment a year? 1 million MWh of curtailment a year? We will see.
Story Tip:
https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2023/10/17/now_dominant_the_green_movement_is_gobbling_its_pinach_with_few_blutos_left_to_clobber_985563.html
The article linked above is by James Varney of Real Clear Investigations, where he documents efforts by a group “Protect Our Coast NJ” in southern New Jersey to fight the installation of huge offshore wind turbines, which they claim has been causing whales to beach themselves on the Jersey shore.
The article also lists corporations and government agencies that are putting up billions of dollars to fund campaigns to favor development of offshore wind farms, while the opposition group has relatively little funding.
“Protect Our Coast NJ” also put out a brochure comparing the size of the proposed wind turbines (with a blade diameter of 722 feet) with that of the Statue of Liberty (305 ft tall, including the pedestal), meaning that the diameter of the turbine would be 2.37 times the height of the Statue of Liberty.
The picture accompanying this article (in WUWT) does not actually capture the true scale of these proposed offshore wind turbines, which are much taller than Lady Liberty.
Out in the Midwest, there are many wind turbines mounted on farmland, and there are many trucks on the Interstates carrying turbine blades (generally about 80 to 120 feet long) from where they were manufactured to where they will be installed.
For an offshore wind turbine 722 ft in diameter, what are the logistics for transporting a turbine blade 360 feet long (the length of a football field, including the end zones) from its point of manufacture to a deep-water port which can handle a large enough ship to float it out to its pedestal? How is such a long blade maneuvered around curves in the road, or street intersections in a port city?
Once it is out to sea, how is such a huge blade lifted into place? Does the lifting crane have to be anchored to the sea floor to prevent it from being tossed around by waves?
If the purpose of the turbine blade is to catch the wind, what needs to be done to prevent it from swaying in the wind while it is attached to the motor at the center, at least 400 feet above the surface of the sea? For the second or third blade to be attached, what is done to keep the previously-installed blade(s) from turning while another blade is attached?
Has anyone really thought this out, and estimated the cost?
and no mention of killing all the whales
So many useful idiots, so little time.
Slightly OT but it is about NY energy resources and you did mention natural gas plants. I was just curious about the current state of the Marcellus shale and drilling in NY. Is that now forever dead in the water or is there any potential future for drilling in NY?
The idiot voters of NYC and NY voted to do this to themselves.
No doubt the usual suspects will blame the failure to enact energy nirvana on evil corporations and will decide that the only solution will be for government to take over the electric companies and build these bird choppers themselves.
Only then will society be perfected and the climate completely protected.
Got to buy pop corn futures.
My understanding is that a nuclear power plant has a name plate of 1000 MW. Start building four of them right now, they will come closer to fulfilling the 9000 MW desired with wind. Not only that but no whales will be harmed or killed in the process. Not to mention the money saved on transmission requirements.
Oh well time for their NY Scooping Plan Mark2.0.
Same deal in Oz as there’s plenty of proposals on the drawing board just waiting for the taxeaters to get all the transmissioning up and running. Another case of you deal with all the transmission line NIMBYs and call us when it’s up and running ready for us to proceed with the wind and solar farms so we can hitch up and dump on the grid. Oh and we’ll competitively tender then with our costs plus profit margin.