Guest essay by Larry Hamlin
NOAA has released its latest August 2023 Average Temperature Anomaly for the Contiguous U.S. using its most accurate USCRN temperature anomaly measurement system as shown below.
Listed below are NOAA’s measured top ten August average temperature anomaly measurements since the USCRN System went into operation in 2005.
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The USCRN chart is always shown here without a trendline, which shows warming (below).
Also, since it’s start in Jan 2005, USCRN has shown a much warmer trend (+0.53 F/dec) than the much maligned (here) NOAA US ClimDiv data (+0.40 F/dec).
So the “most accurate” representation of US surface temperatures is running warmer than the one that’s supposed to be more influenced by the urban heat island effect.
There seems to be a collective blindness to this fact on this site.
The monkey with a ruler hits again.
The only reason there is a slight positive trend is because the 2015/16 El Nino bulge is toward the right side of the data. It was essentially zero trend before that El Nino.
And of course, the difference is insignificant.
Gotta use those El Ninos.. they are the ONLY warming there has been.
Show us the “human” warming signature in that charge, foolish nit-wit.!
And yes, ClimDiv is being controlled by USCRN…
They would look even more stupid than you, if they kept mal-manipulating the ClimDiv data to show warming.
None of the above nonsensical excuses explain why the so-called “most accurate” US data set shows a faster warming trend than the one that’s supposed to be affected by urban heat island affect.
How can that possibly be?
And could you possibly confine yourself to answering that simple question please, rather than regurgitating another Gish-gallop of irrelevant nonsense?
Thank you.
Sure. Can you show me a picture of a thermometer registering the difference between the two datasets, please? I believe it is 0.13°F, isn’t it?
OMG, you are sooooo THICK.
They would look pretty stupid if it came out “exactly” the same as USCRN.
So they make sure it’s a bit either way.
Just pure circumstance the trend turned out slightly less.
Still waiting for you to show us the “human” caused warming trend in the US.
You have failed utterly and completely so far.
—-
And please tell us all…
why are you in a MANIC PANIC about a warming trend of 0.5ºF per decade.??
That shows just how incredibly brainless and chicken-little you lot really are !!!
You still don’t comprehend statistical significance, do you, foolish nonce.
They have to convert to °F in order to get larger number.
And , of course, Since 2015, all three of USCRN, UAH-USA48 and ClimDiv have been trending DOWN at about 0.6c/decade.
SCARED YET ?
Would you describe this as a tacit admission that you might be looking at too short a time interval to establish statistically significant trends?
What you have just admitted is that you have to use El Ninos to get a trend.
Finally you got there..
Maybe you are not a incredibly dumb as you seem.
TFN. Well if you pick April, the trend is DOWN….maybe select “all months” there TFN
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/national-temperature-index/time-series/anom-tavg/1/4
If there is temperature trend, why should it be linear?
It doesn’t have to be linear. Any order of regression analysis is possible. This site seems to favor ordinary linear regression which is probably why most of us just stick to that. When I point out that the 2nd order regression on the satellite data shows acceleration in the warming I get told that it is an unacceptable form of analysis.
Who are “us”?
Thinking the climate data is parabolic.
No-one could say anything more stupid. !!
That was s because exponential equations are nothing but curve fitting. They are only good for displaying what has happened. The end point seldom point even in the right direction in the past or future.
Multivariate cycles are what predominates on the earth. Day/night, month to month, season to season, sunspot to sunspot, on and on. Think sine and cosine combinations of multiple variables, kinda like an orchestra.
“Where is the Climate Emergency?”
Response:
“Where are the uncertainty numbers for these temperatures?”
Geoff S
Bingo. It’s hiding in the noise!
Autumn in the northeastern US.
Hurricane Lee is approaching the east coast of the US.
Before announcing that he was going to bed, Biden stated that if the global temperature exceeded 1.5C it would be worse than a global nuclear war.
Don’t panic people: pretty much everything that this poor old befuddled man says is imaginary. For example, months ago when US inflation was around 10% he stood in front of the cameras and stated that inflation was zero.
The real crisis is that he’s the president of the United States and the most powerful man in the world. Thank God for Donald Trump!
Chris
The US is less than 2% of the earth’s surface area, and 18 years is well within the bounds of regional variability. The region is also not necessarily experiencing the same weather – parts of the southwestern US were warmer than usual last month, for instance, while some parts were cooler than usual:
Looking at the long term record for the region you can see that the trend is positive:
LOL, both of these are based on FAKE, highly corrupted or non-existent data.
Why are you so incredibly dumb that you haven’t figured that out yet.
They are TOTALLY and UTTERLY MEANINGLESS. !
Where did all the ocean data come from for the 1950s, AnalJ?
Where did all the data for the 1950s for most of South America come from, AlanJ?
Where is all the data for the 1950s for Libya and Algeria come from, AnalJ?
Where did the data for the 1950s for Antarctica come from, lolJ?
Where does the data from 1950s for north of Alaska, come from, AlunJ?
You do know the 1950-1980 was the period of the “New Ice Age” scare, don’t you, child?
I generally ignore your comments because they’re just noise. If you can articulate a coherent comment summarizing your objection to the data provided I’ll entertain it. If you genuinely need data sources I can provide citations for those, but I suspect you are not asking in earnest so will refrain for the time being.
You need to explain the information you are posting. When you post a graph provide a cite for its location. If it is of your creation say so. Tell folks what day was used. Answer questions about the data, don’t just promote as true, that is propaganda.
The map is from GISS. It is, as it says, for the month of July. It is almost identical to the map I get for July
Yes, it is GISS,
Therefore we KNOW it is mostly FAKED data. !
Thanks Nick. !
It’s a model map you never admit.
LOL
Your pathetic evasion is noted. !
It is as though you KNOW the whole thing is an abject FAKE, based on non-data.
So funny !
The more you run from producing data…
… the more people can see that I am correct.
And please, don’t just say “GISS” or “HADwhatever.”
Where did they get the data from.
Where was it measured? show us.
“I generally ignore your comments because they’re just noise.”
I like your comments….
,.. they show the absolute arrogance and IGNORANCE of the below-normal-IQ, gullible, brain-washed, climate zealot.
They show just how incredibly little you actually know.
You do know that actual measured temperatures for the USA look NOTHING like that, don’t you !
Why do you unthinkingly accept all the CORRUPTED and MANIPULATED garbage that the AGW scammer put out??.
Is it that you are incapable of actually thinking ?
I’ll ask you since Nitpick Nick won’t answer:
Where do the numbers from the South Indian Ocean come from?
I believe NASA is using a combination of HadISST1 and OISST for ocean temps in their analysis.
If they (and you) were honest, the areas without data would be so indicated (like white or black).
Areas with missing data are indicated in gray, as stated in the caption on the graphic.
That is data missing for this July
I want to know about data from the 1950-1980 period
Where did it originate.
Waiting ! and waiting….
There does not seem to be substantial missing data for this period:
If you want to know where the data originated I refer you to the primary literature, which should always be your first stop:
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/references.html
So you admit to using data you must know is totally corrupted by urban warming, airports, agenda adjustments etc etc etc.. or just toatlly fabricated.
You still haven’t shown where the data actually came from.
You GISS chart above says absolutely nothing.. and is as FAKE as anything else from GISS.
You do know there is basically no real data for the southern oceans before ARGO, don’t you.
Or are you totally ignorant of that fact as well
Where did all the ocean data come from for the 1950s?
Where did all the data for the 1950s for most of South America come from?
Where is all the data for the 1950s for Libya and Algeria come from?
Where did the data for the 1950s for Antarctica come from?
Where does the data from 1950s for north of Alaska, come from?
You have FAILED to answer.. yet again…
Come on.. show us the sites. !
Or continue to run around like a headless chook in manic evasion.
Sparse data tends to not matter much when you are looking at very long time periods. If you look at an individual month, say, June of 1950, you can see much larger gaps in coverage for the southern ocean:
But as we see above, those gaps close up when you’re looking at many months of data in annual means.
My answer now is the same as before: please refer to the primary literature to obtain information about the data used in these analyses.
NASA also has a tool to show individual surface station records. Here is the location of stations reporting in 1950 for Antarctica:
Alaska:
South America:
Africa:
The surface of the planet is only 29% and the waters are the other 71% WHICH Had zero direct water temperature data before 2005 which even now is still sparse in coverage thus an incomplete temperature profile is all we have.
No on the spot water temperature data before year 2005 thus nothing for the previous 1 BILLION years……
Don’t be this weak and foolish Alan.
That is patently false. World Ocean Database.
Yeah right. Made up data from ship measurements in the trade routes.
From NOAA about Argo.
“Deployments of Argo floats began in 1999, and the 3,000-float goal was reached in November 2007.”
So, ARGO wasn’t even done until 2007. And, it doesn’t really cover the ocean well enough to establish a clear view of ocean heat throughout all of the oceans.
Even Phil Jones admitted that data from the southern oceans was “mostly made up”
But that is what the whole FAKE mess hangs on, isn’t it.
I asked where the data for the 1950s came from for several areas.
You have FAILED to produce.
Show the sites it was measured at..
Show it wasn’t just “mostly made up”
Remember these values are averages. Assuming a normal distribution (not likely) they probably have a standard deviation of ±2° C.
So in 1998, 68% of the stations should be in an interval of -1° to 3° C. Remember, these are annual means. That means 34% of stations for every month had to be in the interval of +1.11°C to +3°C to have a mean of ~1° C. Likewise, 34% of stations had to be in the interval of +1.11° C to -1° C.
Where are the stations that had a +3° C or better anomaly? There should be ~16% > 3°C.
Where are the stations that have an anomaly of a -1°C or less? There should be ~16% < -1° C.
You aren't doing science if you can't answer these questions. You are only doing magic math psuedoscience.
Just checked today’s reported morning low temps for the area west of Spokane, WA. Spokane Intl Airport (GEG), with the sensor surrounded by acres of pavement shows a low of 51F. Seventeen miles south, the USCRN site near Cheney, WA, reports a low of 31F. A difference of 20 degrees is not uncommon; largest difference I have seen is 23 degrees. Interestingly, the high temps do not vary much. For example, high temp yesterday (9/13/23) was 77F at both locations.
That is why the increase in Tmin is hidden underneath the Tavg temperature. Tmax doesn’t grow, Tmin does but no one will see it
I follow the official temp at SeaTac airport and compare that to the downtown Seattle temp at KIRO TV. Both temp stations use a standard Stevenson Screen set up. The high temp for each day is consistently 1 degree F to 3 degrees F higher at the airport, compared to downtown. After midnight, the low temps are almost always equal or 1 degree F warmer at SeaTac. I assumed that SeaTac cooled off fast because of the openess. Seeing that huge low temp difference at Spokane Airport and Cheney, I think I will have to come up with a new theory!
Since the UN IPCC AR6 scientific data shows no increase in extreme weather in over 120 years, where is the emergency?
For the progressive wing-nuts the climate emergency is that there is no climate emergency.
Off Topic – Possibly USA Temp Relevant in Near Future
Re: ENSO/SST Global Ocean Temp Map – scroll to it on the right hand margin of this page
For the last three months, the warmest ocean water in the world [+5 C] has been concentrated around northern Japan, Korea, and Sakhalin Island.
The surface area of that warm water has increased significantly in the last month, and west-to-east surface currents appear to be moving it straight at Washington state.
Among other thoughts – does anyone think this water should be tested for radioactivity from the nuclear power plant meltdown in northern Japan, or from North Korea nuclear weapons?