Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) is claimed to intensify hydrological processes. Data analysis indicates it does not.
A paradigm has emerged in recent decades that says there has been and/or will be a worsening of hydrological extremes as a consequence of global warming.
Simplified, the paradigm says that wet gets wetter (flooding) and dry gets drier (drought).
But new global data analyses suggest (a) no trends in drought in the last 120 years (Shi et al., 2022), and (b) declining flood magnitudes as the climate warms (He et al., 2022).
With regard to drought, the global trends indicate there has actually been a de-intensification of meteorological (climate-related) drought from 1959-2014 relative to to 1902-1959.
“The results revealed that: 1) meteorological drought in most climate regions intensified during 1902–1958 but showed a wetting trend during 1959–2014.”
Image Source: Shi et al., 2022
And, likewise, flood magnitudes have not just been flat, but they have been declining as the climate has warmed.
“We find most of the world shows decreases in flood volumes with increasing temperature.”
“[O]bservational records often present more evidence for a decrease in annual flood maxima.”
Whoops!
A beautiful theory, destroyed by an ugly little fact.
Fact! Fact! We don’t need no stinken fact!
Clap louder, or Tinkerbell will die!
In response to He et al., 2022 and Shi et al., 2022, I suspect the IPCC will say a long drawn-out “Shi et,” and ignore them for the next report.
Regards,
Bob
Good one!
The WG-II (adaptation) and WG-III (mitigation) teams can be relied on to completely ignore these papers.
The WG-I (The Scientific Basis) team … maybe not.
AR6, section 4.4.1.3, “Precipitation” (4.4 = “Near-term Global Climate Changes” …), on page 584 :
Section 4.5.1.4, “Precipitation” (4.5 = “Mid- to Long-term Global Climate Change” …), on page 601 :
It is entirely possible that the AR7 (WG-I) assessment report will include a reference to He et al (2022), and may even expand the geographical area of where the “wet get wetter, dry get drier paradigm” breaks down from just “the tropics” to “globally” instead.
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What’s that you ask ?
“How likely is it that the IPCC will include that particular conclusion in the SPM of AR7 (WG-I) ?”
Bwa-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha …
Data, not models … not hysteria. Facts in the end will win out, but for at least another couple of decades the warmunists and their handmaidens in the mainstream media will rely on models and hysteria.
A couple of decades more?
No! I don’t think so.
Always good to see a paper referencing Koutsoyiannis right up front. The man has oodles of credibility in my eyes.
Story tip – Montana Judge Rules in Favor of Climate Activists in First-of-its-Kind Trial › American Greatness (amgreatness.com)
The Montana Department of Justice said in a statement they disagreed strongly with the ruling and will appeal.
“This ruling is absurd, but not surprising from a judge who let the plaintiffs’ attorneys put on a weeklong taxpayer-funded publicity stunt that was supposed to be a trial. Montanans can’t be blamed for changing the climate — even the plaintiffs’ expert witnesses agreed that our state has no impact on the global climate. Their same legal theory has been thrown out of federal court and courts in more than a dozen states…” stated Emily Flower, spokeswoman for Attorney General Austin Knudsen.
Comment: Judge Kathy Seely was in a tough spot. She serves as an elected judge in Helana, MT, the State Capitol. State capitol cities are hugely democrat in my experience.
What would her reelection chances look like if she ruled against the five-year old that was allowed to testify? Like the State AG office responded, “a publicity stunt” (but in my words: Nothing but what dems are famous for: Political theater).
The untold story here is the intent of the legislation the supposed Youths challenged (innocent victims of unscrupulous political manipulation). Ithe State of MT does not want to be required to do a full-blown EIS for small energy projects, it’s not complicated.
From the article: “But new global data analyses suggest (a) no trends in drought in the last 120 years (Shi et al., 2022), and (b) declining flood magnitudes as the climate warms”
With the exception of the United States which has been cooling since the 1930’s, so any declining flood magnitudes in the U.S. would be happening under a cooling climate.
Hansen 1999 + UAH
“(AGW) is claimed to intensify”
Not just hydrological processes, but absolutely everything.
However, they might want to change that acronym. I was searching for ‘AGW intensifies‘ and the second result (DDG) was… “How to manage children with anogenital warts”
https://sti.bmj.com/content/93/4/267
Thankfully, I don’t have to. But the weather is the problem of the age, like it or not.
“Unless greenhouse gas emissions are slashed — and fast the report’s authors say it’s going to get worse. With significant advances in computing power, scientists are more confident than ever in attributing extreme weather to climate change.”
https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2021/08/world/extreme-weather-climate-change/
Priests of yore had scripture. Priests today have more computing power – and little real understanding.
“the last 120 years”
Pick a number. When it comes to so-called climate records that’s essentially what it comes down to.
Record shattering: Earth had its hottest July in 174 years – Phys.org
July 2023 ranked hottest month on record in past 170 years – New Atlas
July 4 Was Earth’s Hottest Day In Over 100,000 years – Forbes
July may be the hottest month in 120,000 years – Fortune
It’s official: July 2023 was the warmest month ever recorded – UN
England proves them all wrong. Now, that is cool.
‘He said…Shi said…’
Sorry, couldn’t help it.
We are fortunate to live in one of the most climatically stable and favorable times in human history. Some folks need to complain no matter how good they have it.
People aren’t programmed for good times. Our hard-wiring makes us look for trouble. Humans are built for a dangerous world and the genes that help us survive before modern civilization just can’t be turned off. In other words, people look for threats to our existence and invent them when none exist.
Absolutely, we are programmed to see the latest extreme event as unprecedented and an indicator of future threats, whilst viewing the past in rosy retrospection. We are programmed to forget past extreme events so that we may concentrate on current threats.
it’s in the genes passed to us our early ancestors who survived in the African Savannah.
When it comes to things social justice etc there can be no end to it, no resolution. What would these self-appointed leaders do then?
This is why Martin Luther King is now a racist. He was colourblind and that’s a no-no in today’s anti-racist world.
Very nice.
1902 – 2014 and not 1900 – 2020?
Less drought lines up exactly with my personal observations using empirical data/measurements of the real atmosphere as an operational meteorologist the past 4+ decades.
Global climate models with great uncertainties get trumped by real world data which is always a certainty.
Well, that and the photos from the 1800’s and just this year should put to rest the idea of massive sea level rise. It won’t, but it should.