From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
By Paul Homewood
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-66304220
You may recall the BBC’s recent attempt to blame the currently cold and wet summer on global warming!
Well the Met Office’s figures for July show that rainfall for the month was hardly unprecedented:
In reality, there is no such thins as “normal July weather”. It can veer from one extreme to another from one year to the next.
You don’t need to invoke the climate bogeyman to explain English weather.
“But June was the warmest on record! Cherry picking!!!!”
No it probably wasn’t. Stop referencing the bad surface data lol.
Perhaps their records start on the first of June, 2023.
It very likely wasn’t the warmest June, when the Central England Temperature has 4 more warmer.
For the CET it was only the 5th warmest June.
It’s interesting that they are forced to average the temperatures with the warmest places on earth to get even close to a record! Comparing UK climate alone, or other regions with their past temperatures won’t get them the headlines and the ‘rockstar lifestyle’!
What is this?
Perhaps an insider joke?
The article above does not mention June or “warmest on record”. Their graph does not depict reaching 2023, let alone June 2023.
Whatever you may say about the MET Office (and who doesn’t), they are very good about updating their data files on the first of each month.
Their “UK and regional series” webpage (direct link) provides access to text files with a 5-line header of “metadata”, which by the time I downloaded them early last Tuesday afternoon (CEST) included :
“Last updated 01-Aug-2023 10:44” (or “… 10:45”)
Setting “Region = UK” let me download the “Rank ordered” files for (mean) temperatures, rainfall and sunshine, from which the data for June and July could easily be extracted.
“Compressing” the resulting spreadsheet vertically (to fit on my laptop screen) gave the attached image file to peruse …
NB : The “Sunshine” data (up to July) has only been recorded for 114 years.
If they only used temperature stations with records going back 100 years, the data becomes much less scary. What’s the rationale for using a chart restricted to 50 plus years records?
“You don’t need to invoke the climate bogeyman to explain English weather.”
Or Scottish, Welsh and Irish weather.
That’s just more irrefutable evidence of climate messiness-
High-Arctic Spring and Climate Change: A Tale of Shifting Claims • Watts Up With That?
We’re doomed.
“You don’t need to invoke the climate bogeyman to explain English weather.”
You do if your income depends on it !
It’s autumnal. No summer for you…. And yes it’s definitely global warming
“”Ulez just the start and similar scheme needed for buildings, experts warn
People assume that burning hydrogen is a clean process that produces only water vapour, but that is not the case””
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/aug/06/ulez-just-the-start-and-similar-scheme-needed-for-buildings-experts-warn
They’re on a roll
Never click on a Guardian link. It only encourages them and provides them with click ad revenue. Don’t do it.
I see what you’re saying, deprive yourself of a good laugh
Ha Ha! quite, but we have our own comedian here to fall back on, when we need a good laugh. Nick keeps us all amused including himself I think.
Nick seems to be a ‘weekly’ edition!
Nah: that should be ‘weakly’.
They’re on a troll! There, fixed.
They always forget, H2O is a stronger climate gaz than CO2, and using as much H2 for several causes should cause more warming, in climate “scientists” view, than using gaz and oil.
“The Jet Stream became ‘stuck'”
Have you ever heard such childish nonsense – It’s straight from the mouth of The Chocolate Covered Cherub..
‘Oh Mummy, my hand got stuck in the cookie jar so I had to eat them all so as to get back out again’
What is entirely obvious (and I’m showing you my Tonga picture again to illustrate) is that they are confusing The Jet Stream with ordinary events within the Troposphere
The Jet Stream being the lowest latitude and lowest altitude manifestation of the Polar Vortex – where said vortex, existent in the Stratosphere, ‘meets’ or contacts the Troposphere.
It was completely unknown about until aircraft started flying high enough (in the 1930’s) and ‘odd things’ started happening with their (dead reckoning) navigation.
They found themselves arriving very early at their destination, or very late, or as in the famous case in the Andes, not arriving at all.
(Having descended into where the airport should have been but a 12,000ft mountain actually was. Dead reckoning told them they’d flown over the mountain and were safe to descend. The Jet Stream reckoned otherwise)
What these muppets are calling ‘The Jet Stream’ is what happening between the two red arrows I’ve drawn on this image of the synoptic chart for the Pacific so as to explain why Tonga got cold.
The wind speeds between my arrows will be nudging 3 figures, probably even near the surface and be greater at altitude.
To my mind and listening to them raving about The Jet Stream it’s entirely obvious they’re confusing (don’t know the difference) between what’s in my Tonga picture and what the Polar Vortex is about.
We’re all familiar with those sorts of short lived bursts of ‘jet’
They’re what makes everything from Dust Devils to tornados to anticyclones (Northern hemisphere) to hurricanes.
Or even when a forecaster appears on TV to tell us that ‘The wind will ‘gust’ to x mph’
Those ‘gusts’ are miniature jets
But just like children, they’ll say anything at any time in order to get their own way.
Meanwhile, The English Summer Joke….
England only has two seasons: Winter and July
Explain that please, Met Office
We do know what really got stuck don’t we = the heat dome over Europe.
And it got stuck there because and despite the high temeperures, there was/is No Serious Amount of Water in The Landscape of Europe any more.
The high temps would have evaoprated that water had it been there and because water vapour is sooooo bouyant relative to dry air it would have risen and ‘burst the heat dome’
But because there was no water (vapour) coming off Europe, cold air from aloft could descend and heat via the LapseRate FoehnEffect.
Building and reinforcing the dome.
That cold air is, what was, warm wet air coming from, surprise surprise, the UK. (and Netherlands, Denmark, Northern Poland etc – originally North Atlantic)
So it was cloudy cool and wet in those places and the two schemes reinforced each other – THAT is what ‘got stuck’
Yes there were jets in there and up there – from the ground we saw them as = thunderstorms
“”muppets””
My clients are outraged at being linked with a fictional crisis….
Did you kidnap Miss Piggy and Kermit?
You mean Michael Mann ISN’T Miss Piggy in drag?!
Here’s your jet stream:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-2.19,32.76,397
The UK is on the cool side of it at the present time, but the jet stream won’t be “stuck” there for long. It will move on and the UK will be on the warm side of it, and the climate alarmists will declare a climate emergency.
Cool, low-pressure, counterclockwise-rotating system over the UK:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-2.19,32.76,397/loc=10.592,52.118
Next to it, is a warm high-pressure, clockwise-rotating system bringing warm air to the areas underneath it.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-2.19,32.76,397/loc=42.361,54.483
A cool system rotating next to a warm system. Mother Nature.
The problem for the BBC isn’t that it’s cold and miserable here this summer. It’s that it was memorably hot last year.
Weather means that the temperature can vary by 20°C in any place on any particular day of the year, year-to-year.
This is very clear right now as July has varied by the full range from 2022 to 2023.
So if society, the economy, people and wildlife can cope with a 20°C change in a single year, why worry about 2°C in a hundred years?
The weather impact is 10 times larger and 100 x faster!
It’s not that weather means AGW isn’t happening but it proves that AGW is of no importance compared to what happens anyway.
This is very embarrassing to the BBC.
It pretends to be a news service but has been reporting on things that are not newsworthy as though they are the biggest story around.
Such jet stream behaviour is more generally associated with a cooling globe because it involves more clouds due to longer lines of air mass mixing which reduces solar energy into the oceans.
Takes a long time for a trend to reverse though because of oceanic thermal inertia and the fact that ocean cycles in each ocean sometimes supplement and sometimes offset each other.
The development of this years summer high pressure cells in the northern hemisphere with associated high temperature (exaggerated by UHI though) means that the warm air stagnated and failed to get carried to the poles so it was radiated to space in situ.
The polar regions now contain more cold air than usual in store for the next winter.
During the full sequence of the ~65-year natural climate cycle the jet stream operates in two distinct phases.
The climate moved into the meridional weather phase in 2005 and is not going to exit until circa 2035.
This is all natural. Get used to it and plan accordingly.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/aug/06/world-cycling-championships-road-race-interrupted-by-protesters-in-scotland
“It’s not about cycling.” How very true – it’s all about publicity and getting their names in a paper or online. How empty and meaningless are their lives where this actually begins to make some sort of sense?
Next they’ll reach the stage where they begin posting on meaningless websites.
I do sometimes wonder if the butterfly effect (strange attractors etc) is blocking some changes to air flow patterns. Whether true or not, the implicit irony of climate change being caused by all the wind turbines appeals gretaly (sic) to me at least!
That’s climate “science”, it’s cool because of warming, we read that since years, and nobody really wonders about that BS.
The jet stream getting “stuck” is not a recent phenomena. I give you the 1930’s and 40’s as proof.
Why does history for so many CAGW advocates begin when they were born – i.e. the 80’s onward?
There were definitely persistent high-pressure systems over the U.S. during the 1930’s.
Because all that history is really inconvenient.
Funny how the headline is about a cold summer when we haven’t had a particularly cold summer, and the article only mentions rain.
Where do live? Coldest July and August I can remember. 14C in my part of Shropshire yesterday. Caught a cold walking the hills in the Lake District early July. It’s been cold.
Nothing particularly remarkable here in Central Central England.
June was coolish, but noticeably dry. July was coolish and certainly made up for the lack of rainfall in June.
Manchester ruined a great Ashes victory, but that’s what you expect in Manchester.
I live in Lincoln and it was decidely not as warm as where you live. The rain started in June, as did the cold; it was so cold my heating came on several days in July (I’ve lived here for over 20 years and this was the coldest July I’ve known in that time). The rain stopped for about 3 isolated days during June, July and the first days of August – most days we’ve had a daily downpour lasting 2-5 hours, during July it rained for 4 days without a single break. I hope you, at least, enjoyed your Summer; here we went straight from Spring to Autumn.
In the UK record, June 2023 was the warmest, and July was warmer than the 1961-1990 reference period.
Just below this post is one by “Bellman” with an image attached indicating that the MET Office now uses the most recent “WMO-standard 30-year Reference Period” of 1991-2020.
For the UK July’s “Mean temp” was 0.4°C below the “1991-2020 Anomaly” value …
CET was about 0.7°C below the 1991 – 2020 base. Which just goes to show how much July’s have warmed over 30 years. But it’s still the case that 2023 was not unusually cold. 2012 was colder, as was 2020.
It’s strange that people are arguing this when the claim of this article is this is just normal UK weather.
According to the the long-running Central England Temperature record, June 2023 was the warmest June on record since 1659, so…
“According to the the long-running Central England Temperature record, June 2023 was the warmest June on record since 1659, so…”
No it wasn’t.
For the CET it was only the 5th warmest June.
It’s certainly not been warm in July and cold the last couple of days, but summer also includes the hottest June’s for 150 years, and objectively July wasn’t as cold as several years in the past 15 years.
But I do think subjectively it can be difficult to define whether a month has been hot or cold.
Here’s a comparison of maximum anomalies in July 2012 and 2023.
How bad a month is doesn’t only rely on temperature, as rainfall, sunshine and wind are also important. That is the main reason why people think months are worse/better than what the temperature may show.
For this particular location in England for July.
Year Mean Rainfall
2009 15.3c 178.8mm
2012 14.6c 106.6mm
2020 14.9c 87.6mm
2023 15.1c 159.1mm
They may have been cooler July’s than 2023, but with that amount of rainfall it would be difficult to be much worse with 2009 being similar.
A significant reason for July 2023 being not as cool was due to very high North Atlantic SST’s.
“How bad a month is doesn’t only rely on temperature, as rainfall, sunshine and wind are also important.”
And many other things. That’s why I said it’s subjective. But my comment was in reply to someone specifically saying it was the coldest July in 20 years.
“For this particular location in England for July.”
Location is also important, especially for rain. As is the type of rain. Personally the worst July for rain was 2007, as I experience some major flooding. This July I haven’t seen any flooding, it’s more been an annoyance, but I am living a little East of where I was in 2007, which makes a difference.
Here’s the map for each. It’s easy to see that some parts of the UK (e.g. NW and NI) were wetter in 2023, but others (e.g. Wales through to the SE) were wetter in 2007.
Location is important and especially when it occurs over large population areas as more people experience it.
There will always be different views on how a month fairs because people across the countries will usually be either, worse or better off.
From the article: “There is a school of thought that a warming climate is causing this [jet stream] change.”
The jet stream configuration constantly changes. Good luck trying to connect CO2 to these changes. it’s a lot more complicated than CO2.
There is no evidence CO2 has anything to do with the jet stream and its configuration. It’s pure speculation based on nothing.
Yet if the climate models are to be at all accurate over a lengthy period of time they *must* consider and account for the changes in weather patterns engendered by the jet stream and its movement.
Yet they don’t.
Just like they don’t account properly for clouds.
What is the relationship between cloud cover of the earth and the jet stream? It’s obvious climate science doesn’t know – and equally as obvious that they don’t care. It might interfere with their y = mx + b model of the earths temperature 100 years from now!
Prof Liz Bentley of the Royal Meteorological Society seems to have a more measured view of climate change than most warmunists.
Last year she was on BBC Radio 4 ‘World at One’ (17th Feb 22) commenting on a storm in the UK which had the BBC salivating and said
“If you look back over the last say 50 years or so there isn’t a compelling trend that we’ve seen in the amount of storminess we get in the UK”
“we are not seeing any significant changes or trends within the number of storms or maximum wind gusts over the last five decades”
But but but, she also said
“It will be interesting to see if there’s conclusive evidence that climate change has led to that. And that’s going to be a pattern that we see going forward in future.”
There never will be conclusive evidence because there can’t be conclusive evidence for such things. She is deceiving the public and possibly herself too.
And she also puts the cart before the horse, as her ilk are wont to do. If we have a persistent pattern of such weather for many years then we should state that this is the cause of a changing climate, not that the climate caused the weather.
As a child I recall being told that Britain had a maritime – therefore changeable – and temperate climate – normally no extremes but occasionally there were. This explains why the Country is never prepared for very high, or very cold, or very dry, or very wet weather as some other Countries who have routinely extremes over long periods are.
The cost of being prepared for rare and short-lived extremes in Britain would outweigh the benefit.
I am 71 years old and can attest that the British climate has not changed overall since my childhood. The weather however changes frequently, and two years have never been the same in my life to date. I dare say that moving out of an ice age 12 000 years ago towards the tail-end means there is a very slow, slight increase in warming, but I expect we shall know more in about 5 000 to 10 000 years time.
Earth currently has two ice caps – a rare event in Earth’s history where the norm is none and even one is unusual, so we are in one of the Earth’s cooler periods.
Global warming is a relative, not absolute term. So we are warming compared to what, when?
Most people in the UK wouldn’t know what genuinely severe weather looked like if it ran them over in the high street. It is indeed the distinguishing characteristic of weather here.
Since arriving here (on and off) since the 1960s I have only noticed a couple of changes.
1) Winter snow seems a bit less frequent in this part of central Central England.
2) Green things appear to be growing more luxuriantly than before. I can certainly believe that this may well be partly due to more CO2 in the atmosphere.
Go long on manufacturers of lawn mowers. (I am not a licensed financial advisor and have no financial interests in companies making lawnmowers or other gardening/farming equipment.)
Yeah I didn’t imagine you’d be funded by ‘big gardening’.
AGW is all things to all people at all times, but all bad.
It seems to be all things to all climate activists. Not so much for everyone else.
When EVERYTHING, even things diametrically opposed to one another (e.g., cold and wet vs. hot and dry) are supposedly caused by the same thing, that tells you that YOU ARE BEING CONNED.
The Met Office UK climate projections are for warmer and drier summers, as with the IPCC circulation models, they predict increasingly positive North Atlantic Oscillation conditions with rising CO2 forcing. Positive NAO generally means a more northerly and less meridional (wavy) jet stream pattern. Given that the cooler wetter conditions this July were strictly due to negative NAO conditions, we can safely discount rising CO2 being the cause. I had predicted the hot June and cooler wetter July several months previously, but I doubt that the Met Office would be interested in how the Sun drives the NAO anomalies, or how rough next summer will be.
https://archive.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch10s10-3-5-6.html