Essay by Eric Worrall
Even though President Biden is spending hundreds of billions on climate change, “… those cuts are not enough to offset increases in other nations, particularly China and several midsize economies.”.
āWe are not preparedā: Disasters spread as climate change strikes
The warming planet is causing havoc under the strain from record heat, floods, storms and wildfires. And scientists warn the toll will get worse.
By ZACK COLMAN
07/15/2023 07:00 AM EDTThe floods, droughts, wildfires and extreme heat sweeping the globe are offering a dose of the climate future that scientists have warned about for decades ā and all the ways the world is not ready.
…
āIf you donāt like what youāre seeing today, stick around ā itās going to get worse before it gets better,ā said Michael Oppenheimer, a climate scientist at Princeton University.
…
āWe donāt have a lot of time,ā the president said this week in Vilnius, Lithuania, calling climate change āthe single greatest threat to humanity.ā
…
Even with the U.S. and European climate pollution on a downswing, those cuts are not enough to offset increases in other nations, particularly China and several midsize economies.
…
Read more: https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/14/we-are-not-prepared-disasters-spread-as-climate-change-strikes-00106439
Even if you believe in the carbon demon, if China is completely cancelling all attempts to cut emissions, what is the point of wasting money on further attempts to cut emissions?
China is never going to cut emissions, so long as the communists are in charge. The Chinese Communist claim to political legitimacy is based on delivering economic development.
Even if the communists fall, there are still a lot of poor people in China, who will demand whatever government replaces Communism prioritises continued fast paced economic development.
If China falters, there are vast numbers of poor people who will step in and take their place. India, under their brilliant technocratic leader Prime Minister Modi, is racing ahead. African nations like Nigeria, Kenya, Algeria, Mozambique and Ghana, despite ongoing political and economic turmoil, are quietly well on the way to becoming prosperous.
The billions of people who in some cases are tasting prosperity for the first time in their nation’s history will not allow Western climate cultists to stand in the path of their economic development, regardless of how much CO2 their economic development produces.
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Weāve only got minutes to spare before this climate catastrophe explodes. We are at our beginning of the week new ātipping pointā now!
Climate emotions are running high…thanks to Joey and Johnny….Joey is also building a railroad across the Pacific in addition to his new climate…..Joey calls it Bidenisim….similar to socialism.
Didn’t AOC declare that she wanted people going to Hawaii to ride the train instead of flying?
They will need one hell of a bridge for the last part from California.
They can run it alongside the bridge for the Hawaiian interstate (H1)
Just think outside the box people – a speedboat and 4 or 5 of those towable inflatable boats shaped like giant banana’s or hotdog’s could be a ‘train’ of sorts! It’d get them there (or part way at least).
āāEven though President Biden is spending hundreds of billions on climate change, āā¦ those cuts are not enough to offset increases in other nations, particularly China āā
Well, youād better pull your collective fingers out, then
not to mention India
The USA could drop, not to Net Zero but to Absolute Zero tomorrow AND scrub an additional 100% of relative CO2 emissions (effectively a 200% drop) and China would still be adding MORE than that effectively negating the efforts and making the vast expenditure meaningless
And India. Between these two countries alone, they are adding about one large new coal-fired station every week to their electricity supply. India will be the largest country in the world before the end of this decade.
It is unreasonable to expect that Asian nations should do without electrical supply because of Western nations’ angst about a non-existent threat. This is enviro-colonialism at its worst.
From what I’ve been reading, India passed China in population sometime in the last few weeks.
“āWe donāt have a lot of time,ā”
right, what he meant was that at 80 he doesn’t have much time š
https://www.wedonthavetime.org/about-us
The creators of the Greta Thunberg experience
“The Greta Thunberg Experience” — Is that a new show in Vegas?
It isnāt like Jimi
That’s because “saving us” was only a loose, umbrella Party plank term. The rest of the policy march is about helping donors, voter blocks, and Congressional leaders. In those terms, no amount of counter evidence like China or unauthorized science findings will slow the march. Think Putin and Hitler war management at this point. The best outcome is that this becomes the Vietnam of the Greens.
“The best outcome is that this becomes the Vietnam of the Greens.” Can’t happen quick enough.
Starring John Kerry as Gen. Westmoreland and Joe Biden as himself.
Or Biden’s Afghanistan. Make that Afghanistan II.
Biden’s gaseous emissions are the greatest threat to humanity. They must be ended.
Well what a surprise, China People are doing everything all wrong.
(Self flagellation is now Oh So PassĆ©e – lets see if we can gain traction with some Buck Passing)
At some point (it will be ‘well cold’ by then but you’ll be roasting in heatwave) – It Will Dawn that is is your own ‘lack of absorptions‘ causing the rising COā levels.
The Dawning will be an even bigger surprise in that it will come with the revelation that COā does not Control Climate – water does.
Start reinstating some grasslands with a few Buffalo to manage them instead of that hideous pellagra inducing and subsidy-mining weed/mush = Maize
Never know your luck, the climate might change AND you can be friends with China again.
see what I mean when I say ‘wrap up warm‘ – she came for the Night-Life (and Winter-Life – she’s from Texas)
The weather/climate models are beginning to show their age.
Their maintenance is definitely unsustainable
Nah, it’s the lack of humidity – she’s actually only 21!
The floods, droughts, wildfires and extreme heat sweeping the globe are offering a dose of the climate future that scientists have warned about for decades ā and all the ways the world is not ready.
**************
Still don’t understand the difference between weather and climate, do you Zack? If and when you are ready to listen to somebody who is willing to explain it to you, it will be a day to celebrate.
Worse now than it’s been in 100 years.
Climate has been changing on earth for 4.5 billion years.
āā¦ those cuts are not enough to offset increases in other nations, particularly China and several midsize economies.ā
We knew this the day VP Biden and SoS Kerry negotiated an agreement that bypassed the US Congress allowing China to INCREASE emissions while the US had to revert to 1995 levels!!!
“The floods, droughts, wildfires and extreme heat sweeping the globe are offering a dose of the climate future that scientists have warned about for decades ā and all the ways the world is not ready.” (My underline)
Extreme weather, climate disasters have NOT worsened over the last 150 years in either frequency of intensity. (Future problems are based solely on models.)
The above is a carefully worded sentence that implies something that is not true without actually stating it.. (Like “the earmarks of Russian information..”)
What China and India are doing is nothing compared to emissions from volcanoes, and jungles, and swamps, and tidal plains. The Tonga eruption put more “greenhouse gases” into the atmosphere than the human race has done in it’s entire existence. THAT. IS. JUST. ONE. There are continuous volcanic eruptions and out gassing all around the globe. Humans are not causing climate to do jack shit.
Well, we are actually do – locally that is. (just nitpicking here š )
We build lots of things -> UHI effect.
We put dykes on riverbanks -> flooding downstream.
We clear-cut forests -> erosion.
But talking about that won’t win any talking points, tax credits or other subsidies. It’s certainly hard to get Other People’s Money so someone can do something about it while getting a (nice) salary.
The problem with we skeptics of the weather dooming is we need to be unburdened by what has been-
Kamala Harris āunburdenedā by overuse of certain phrase (msn.com)
China state newspaper Global Times on Sunday called its pro-regime observers āwidely pessimisticā and expecting āno concrete progressā as President Joe Bidenās special climate envoy, John Kerry, landed in Beijing for talks to address the alleged climate ācrisis.ā
The Global Times undermined Kerryās impact before he held a meeting on Monday with Chinaās top environmental official, Xie Zhenhua, intended to expand discussions of what the two countries can do together to cut carbon emissions. China has formally vowed to increase its carbon emissions as an āobligationā in the Paris Climate Agreement, which Biden formally rejoined upon becoming president.
I recall when Kerry was Secretary of State and China left him on his plane waiting on the tarmac for hours. They have no respect for Kerry, Blinken (the current Secretary of State) or the Biden administration in general.
Since the above extract of the climate alarmist article by Zack Colman quotes Michael Oppenheimer, “a climate scientist at Princeton University,” here is a fact that all readers should know: Dr. Oppenheimer spent 21 years as the Environmental Defense Fundās chief scientist and is still a science advisor to that organization. (ref: https://www.heinzawards.org/pages/michael-oppenheimer# )
Think he might have a not-so-hidden agenda?
Also there is this quote of Dr. Oppenheimer at the same reference:
“The dangers from climate change can only be addressed effectively with planning long in advance by individuals and governments.”
Obvious questions that are invited by such a sophomoric statement:
ā What dangers?
ā What type of planning (and does it reflect proven technology, or pie-in-the-sky thinking)?
ā How long in advance (10 years, 50 years, 200 years, 1000 years)?
ā Who are the “individuals and governments” that will do such “planning” for all mankind?
ā Most importantly, who are the individual scientists, the scientific organizations, and indeed the national governments on planet Earth that will be excluded from participating in and voting on such planning?
So many questions, so few answers.
The Energy Institutes recently published ‘Statistical Review of World Energy 2023’ notes that the
Asia Pacific region continues to increase its share of total global CO2 emissions, accounting for almost 50%, and that China’s primary energy consumption grew by 72% in 2022.
Emissions in this region are headed in one direction only.
“As of February 2023, 194 states and the EU, representing over 98% of global greenhouse gas emissions, have ratified or acceded to the [Paris Accord] Agreement, including China and the United States”
ā https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_parties_to_the_Paris_Agreement#
Pure virtue signaling at its finest!
Logged in to post something else but I just couldn’t let an error that big go unchallenged.
China’s PEC (excluding the Hong Kong SAR), according to EI, was 157.94 EJ in 2021 and 159.39 EJ in 2022.
That’s an increase of less than 0.1% (I get 0.918% to 3 dp), which is slightly less than 72% …
Calculating the “base number” using X x 1.72 = 159.39, X = 159.39 / 1.72 ~= 92.67 EJ.
China’s PEC was that large sometime between calendar years 2007 (1st Jan. to 31st Dec. = 90.17 EJ) and 2008 (93.67 EJ).
“According to EI (ex-BP) China’s PEC grew by ~72% in the 14 or 15 years from 2007/8 to 2022” would be more accurate.
You are right. I misread my notes. China accounted for 72% of the total growth of primary energy consumption in 2022. Apologies.
point of wasting money on further attempts to cut emissions?
It’s FJB’s pay back to the Chinese for the millions in bribes – china is the big beneficiary of Buyden’s attack on US energy & destruction of the US economy
āEven though President Biden is spending hundreds of billions on climate changeā
Fools rush in
āāJust Stop Oil supporter disrupts own graduation ceremony at University of Exeterāā
https://www.independent.co.uk/tv/news/just-stop-oil-university-graduation-exeter-b2376682.html
āā¦ those cuts are not enough to offset increases in other nations, particularly China and several midsize economies.ā.
Is this a call to action for Just Stop Oil, Antifa, and Extinction whatever? I would love to see those loons glue themselves to runways and roads to see the reaction of the authorities.
It is a false premise to state that anybody is trying to cut our emissions.
How do you cut emissions by increasing the use of heavy industry to build inefficient forms of producing electricity.
Heavy industry works 24 hours a day every day of the year manufacturing billions of tons of raw materials into wind turbines and solar panels.
This manufacturing will never end, or only end when we run out of the fossil fuels and chemicals from fossil fuels that are used to manufacture wind turbines and solar panels.
The premise of the article is false.
But that’s communist CO2, as everyone knows, it doesn’t do any work, so it can’t possibly trap IR.
The energy intensive industry that used to be done in the west has now shifted to Asia. It’s squeezing a balloon.
According the Wall Street Journal, it seems Europeans are buying into this. They want a 30 hour work week and will live on less money.
The only thing that is sweeping the world is climate hysteria BS.
The vast majority of people understand that itās just the weather, in all its natural variability. And of course the warmunists pretend that āextremeā heat in the middle of summer in the northern hemisphere is actually āunprecedentedā. The most grossly overused term in their glossary of BS is āunprecedentedā. My god, it gets hot in the summer? Whoād a thunk it? We never knew!
Any sentient adult over the age of 50 living in the temperate latitudes subject to a Continental climate is well aware that extreme heat in summer and extreme cold in winter are absolutely normal, always have been, and always will be, with no humanly perceptible change in these past 50 years when weāve all collectively gone to hell in a hand basket, at least per the warmunists and their mouseclick-seeking fellow travelers in the media.
I see that you are quite wrong. I could not say whether it is a majority or just a large minority but a great many people who have been around for a long time (in human terms) believe all this tripe about increasing extreme weather and extreme heat and accept that CO2 and it cousins are at fault.
CO2 forcings are logarithmic with concentration, not linear, and we are way into the flat part of that curve. More or less CO2 emitted as an offset to current emissions isn’t going to make an appreciable difference to temperature one way or another. NetZero is a foolish and costly gesture.
“CO2 forcings are logarithmic with concentration”
So True. When I finally realized that, I understood why CO2 driven climate change is a non-problem.
The amount of warming is a fixed increment for each doubling of the atmospheric concentration of CO2. The increment is called the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS).
IPCC (the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) — the climate science establishment says it is 3 Ks = 3Ā° Celsius +/- 1.5. Real climate scientists like Judy Curry and Nick Lewis and Roy Spencer have empirically demonstrated that it is lower.
Here is the principle expressed as a formula where:
T1 = The global mean temperature at time no 1. (currently approximately 288K thought to be 287K in the late 19th Century)
T2 = The global mean temperature at time no. 2
C1 = The atmospheric CO2 concentration at time no. 1 (19th Century 280 ppm)
C2 = The atmospheric CO2 concentration at time no. 2 (currently 420 ppm)
ECS = Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity see above.
Log2 is the logarithm function base 2
The formula is:
T2 = T1 + (ECS Ć (Log2 (C2/C1)))
That is a logarithmic equation. It produces change at a decelerating rate. It is the mathematical inverse of an exponential equation like compound interest which produces change at a accelerating rate.
Note if your calculator has the natural logarithm function you can calculate the Log2 of a number by as ln(x)/ln 2.
The deep physical principle at work here is that each unit of CO2 adds a fixed amount of heat to the atmosphere. The incremental effect of adding one U is 1/(n*U+1). Adding the incremental effects up is equivalent to integrating the function 1/x from 1 to n. This integral is the natural logarithm of n. I used 2 above because the effect is stated as increment per doubling. but any base logarithm can be converted by applying the formula ln(x)/ln(b).
The warmunists postulate a faster than logarithmic rise in global temperatures by claiming that there are positive feed backs that will amplify the effect of incremental units of CO2 in some nonlinear way.
There are two enormous problems with this claim. First they have not specified the nature of this mechanism or given an algorithm for calculating it or the parameters that would be used in that calculation. It reasonable to suspect that they haven’t because they can’t. Second, if there were such a mechanism the chances that it had been triggered by some event (like volcanic eruptions) at some time in the last 4.5 billion years must be 100%. Yet, there is no evidence of a runaway heating event in the geological record.
From Political Calculations:
China’s CO2 emissions in 2022 (11,876 Mega Tonnes) exceeded the combined emissions of all of North and South America and Western and Central Europe (11,872)
The true danger is that a truly climate/insane leader takes charge, not just some venal arsehat whoās in it to make a buck, like Biden and Trudeau.
A true believer will come to decide that if China wonāt stop then to save the planet china must be eliminated.
So Biden went to a NATO meeting to talk about Swedish admission and those pesky Russians, but somehow ended up bellyaching about global warming again?
For once it really is worse than they thought. Many large manufacturing companies relocate to China so as to escape onerous regulations in West. Many of these large companies are also afflicted by the ESG restrictions piled on by greentard investors like Blackrock, whose writ probably does not run in Beijing.
Further, the investing companies also wished to gain purchase, and favour, in the expanding Chinese market for their products. Yet a company the size of Disney find that they are only permitted to retain about half the percentage of box office receipts as they are used to else where. Their parks investments are genuinely sunk ones and they are Shirley now aware that you provoke the CCP at your peril.
It’s really is worse-than-we-thought squared for these hypocritical green investors
When BP released their “Statistical Review of World Energy” last year it included a “CO2e Emissions” tab, which was what the IPCC would (probably ?) call “Fossil-Fuel and Industry (FF&I) GHG emissions.
NB : LULUCF (Land-Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry) / AFOLU (Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land-Use) emissions are not included in the above, but fairly constant since 1990 (at ~1 GtC per year IIRC ???) according to the IPCC.
The table of “Carbon Dioxide Equivalent Emissions from Energy, Process Emissions, Methane, and Flaring” data, in GtCO2e per year, was only provided from 1990, but I idly did a “sorted list of deltas to 2021” graph anyway.
EI’s updated spreadsheet has the same tab (sheet 9 of 83) with the same start year (1990), so it was easy enough to update my graphic … which is attached below.
Notes
– Of the ~15.4 GtCO2e increase in “World” (absolute, FF&I only, GHG) emissions from 1990 to 2022, ~9.35 Gt came from China. That’s just over 60% …
– The second-largest increase, a long way behind, was the ~2.2 Gt (just over 14%) from India.
– The largest decreases from individual countries — — ironically enough given the current geopolitical situation — — came from Russia (minus 699 Mt) and Ukraine (minus 667 Mt).
– The next best “good guys” were Germany (-375 Mt) and the UK (-261 Mt), a fair distance away from the top 2.
– Obviously, “cherry picking” a different start year will give different results. Note especially that for China those “FF&I CO2e emissions” actually decreased slightly last year (from ~11.97 Gt in 2021 to ~11.88 Gt to 2022) according to EI.
Following on from my last point, there are several reasons why US presidents since Barack Obama have pushed for emission reductions to be measured “since / from 2005“.
The attached version of my graph highlights just one of them.
Note that the two y-axes have the same range (2.6 GtCO2e), but have to be offset by six GtCO2e to accommodate the “World” and “China” datapoints …