By P Gosselin
Germany’s DWD national weather service has released the preliminary figures for Germany’s mean temperature and precipitation for May, 2023. The month was normal in terms of temperature using the 1991-2020 climate mean and drier than normal.
May has shown no warming trend for almost four decades
Those who hoped for compensation after the cool April only got their money’s worth at times in May 2023 – at times it was summery warm, but for the most part, very cool days prevailed.
A cool start to the month was followed by a cool period, and in the last third of the month the “Little Ice Saints” made themselves felt with cold nights despite plenty of sunshine. Unfortunately, the dreaded spring and early summer drought reappeared, especially in northeastern Germany, which reduced crop prospects, albeit much less severely than in 2022.
The 2023 May was therefore not entirely satisfactory – but in the long term neither May temperatures nor precipitation showed any worrying trends.
The figure above shows that despite rising CO2 concentrations, the trend for the May mean temperature has not risen since 1986.
May precipitation 2023 – mostly insufficient
With around 44 mm of precipitation, which is just under two-thirds of the mean for the period 1991 to 2020, this May was far from being one of the driest since 1881.
Unfortunately, the well-known rule “When May is warm and dry, all growth stalls” still applies, even if the sharp rise in CO₂ concentrations helps plants to better survive dry phases.
Longterm precipitation trend shows nothing worrying
The northeast of Germany, already plagued by droughts, was also at a severe disadvantage this May; from about the Elbe north-eastwards, less than 20 mm fell most of the time; after 2018, 19, 20 and 22, the next crop failure are in the works. In Weimar, the usual early summer drought started quite late this time; only in the last ten days of May. The situation is somewhat better in the centre of the country and regionally much better in southwest Germany.
A look at the long-term development of May precipitation shows nothing worrying, however:
Chart: Germany precipitation in millimeters since 1881. Overall trend is wetter. Since th2000 the trend has been drier. Data source: DWD.
See complete article in German at EIKE here.
“Germany Mean Temperature Trend For The Month Of May Sees No Rise Since 1986”
Yet, that nation will continue to invest hundreds of billions to make sure it doesn’t happen- while covering its landscape with hideous wind and solar farms. Perhaps getting smashed twice in the 20th century caused permanent damage to Germany’s common sense.
Much of the West lost a lot, as well.
Wow, look how fast that green line is rising. Who would thought that a 20% increase in CO2 was expected to cause 8°C warming.
That would imply a sensitivity of around 30. About 10 times the IPCC’s best estimate.
The green line only points out that CO2 has increased from 351 to 422 ppm over the interval while temperatures have barely moved. Good effort at deflection, though, Nick would be proud of you.
Yes, sure. The only reason for showing such a steep line over a graph using s different scale was to demonstrate what direction up is.
If alarmists don’t like steep lines, maybe they should plot their beloved ‘anomalies’ against a temperature scale that includes the entire annual range of normal temperature variability.
It’s “up”
Up is supposed to be bad
I guess it’s like the graphs of Greenland or Antarctic ice melt, when you look at a graph of the total volume of ice it cannot be seen.
Such a childish response you provide
Thank goodness there has been a rise in atmospheric CO2.
Otherwise, it would be much harder to feed the world’s population. !
And of course there is no evidence that beneficial increase does anything except enhance plant growth.
“Who would thought…”
People on your side of the argument. The ones who’ve got their knickers in a twist.
Frosty nights are not over in June.
June 21st 1993 there was frost in my just north of Milwaukee garden.
“Mean Temperature Trend For The Month Of May Sees No Rise Since 1986”
That’s quite enough of that real world data stuff. Climate science has other methods (than the scientific one)
“Climate models are extensive computer programmes that rely on certain assumptions when calculating the future development of the climate. These assumptions are combined into greenhouse gas scenarios, resulting in climate projections. Projections are not forecasts or predictions (“this will happen”), but rather “if-then” statements”
https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/en/topics/climate-energy/climate-impacts-adaptation/impacts-of-climate-change/climate-models-scenarios#what-are-greenhouse-gas-scenarios-and-what-are-they-used-for
German futures hang on erroneous assumptions and whataboutery
Attached is the significant reason why =a Humongous High that’s been sat there for over a fortnight now.
At very least it’s making the East Of England bl***y cold by sweeping in a lot of cold air off the North Sea.
I dunno how long that other High has been sitting on Lithuania but the one centred west of Scotland must be bringing, and have brought, some very cold winds straight out of the North and down over Denmark, Poland & Germany. With that Low above Iceland helping push stuff south and into it.
Then the easterly flow along the south of that High will be what caused the rain in Spain and notably, the Awful Climate Change™ that saw backhoe loaders out on the streets rescuing Spanish cars from mountains of hailstones.
It’s forecast to stay there for quite some time also.
My Wunderground 10-day forecast says ‘no change‘ from what we seeing today though they suggest daytime temps (presently = 16°C) may ramp up from Weds to peak at 25°C this time next week…
What I don’t get, is that it’s quite breezy outside (10 miles inland from The Wash) so why aren’t all the the windmills out there making anything?
(UK wind generation presently 3GW – but solar is loving it)
“The northeast of Germany, already plagued by droughts, was also at a severe disadvantage this May; from about the Elbe north-eastwards, less than 20 mm fell most of the time; after 2018, 19, 20 and 22, the next crop failure are in the works.”
Yeah, that forest of windmills in the Baltic does knock the water out of the moist air early and dry out the soil leeward. Offshore Denmark. Note the early knock-down of moisture drying leeward air.
Sorry the image is ‘forbidden’!! Here is one but it doesn’t show clear dry air near the back rungs of windmills.
Point of Parliamentary Procedure! If Germany isn’t particularly warmer, then Northern Europe must not be warmer. And if Northern Europe isn’t warmer, then can we not assume that all of Europe is not warming? And if Europe is not warming, then doesn’t that indict the entire UN, Western Civilization, scientific and academic organizations and science more generally? And if all those institutions are corrupt, aren’t we condemning the entire structure of politics of the United States of America?
This ‘global warming’, ‘climate change’, or whatever they call it is rubbish.
If you ask me, we are still in the Little Ice Age.
The CET, met office headline temperature for month of May has hardly changed (puny 0.25 C) in over a quarter of millennia, or galloping ahead at 1 degree C in a thousand years.
Click on the graph for a clear view.
data: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/meantemp_monthly_totals.txt
Always interesting to see what these “no warming since a carefully chosen date” graphs look like in context.
Here’s my graph showing the trend before and after 1986, for May. Slight cooling up to 1986, no warming since 1986, yet around 1°C warming between the two pauses.
Here, by the way is what it looks like for annual temperatures.
Those are not real temperature.
They are “adjustment enhanced” urban and airport temperatures.
It’s exactly the same data source used in this article.
Interesting. So what you’re saying is that although there has, indeed, been little or no warming since 1986, there has been only about 1 degree of warming since 1882? Is that correct?
You could say that. The linear warming rate since 1881 has been around 0.07°C / decade, which translates into just under 1°C. Slightly less than the global average. But it’s not a linear rate of warming, with a gentle rise up to the 40s, then a bit of cooling to the 70’s and a faster rate of warming since then.
Here’s the same data with a Loess smoothing
But, of course this is just for May, which seems to show a lot less warming than other months. Taking annual averages shows a different picture. The overall warming rate is 0.12°C / decade, for a total of 1.7°C since 1881.
But here the current warming is much more pronounced. The rate of warming since 1986 is 0.4°C / decade.
My mom sometimes talks about how the Neckar River would freeze over when she was was a kid. It stopped happening around the time a power plant was built upstream, and the waste water for cooling was dumped back into the river. That brings up another point- Germany today is roughly the size of New Mexico, but has over 80 million people. Does Germany have any truly rural spots anymore, and by that I mean what we here in the western US would consider “rural”?
What’s up with making an article about lack of warming on basis of temperature data for one month of the year in one country with .07% of the world’s surface area?