According to current computer models, snow cover should have been decreasing year-on-year since the mid-20th century. The models make this claim because of global warming. They also predict that this trend will continue and even accelerate. They suggest that soon many countries will no longer experience snow. But, what has actually happened to snow cover?
In this video, we compare the claims of the computer models to the observed historical records. We find the models got it wrong for all four seasons.
Relevant links:
🔹 For the relevant discussion on snow cover in the IPCC’s latest (2021) assessment report, see Section 2.3.2.2 “Terrestrial Snow Cover” in Chapter 2 of Working Group 1’s 6th Assessment Report (AR6): https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ch…
🔹 The paper by Connolly et al. discussed in the video is as follows:
R. Connolly, M. Connolly, W. Soon, D.R. Legates, R.G. Cionco and V. M. Velasco Herrera (2019). “Northern hemisphere snow-cover trends (1967-2018): A comparison between climate models and observations”. Geosciences, 9(3), 135. Link here: https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences90…
Before it’s gone (snow), I’ve decided to ski tomorrow at Arapahoe Basin in Colorado.
dont worry according to the models well have snow even if GSAT is 6C above the 1995-2014 average
According to the models… roflmao !!.
You really do live in a fantasy world still , don’t you !!
From the research cited above: My bolding.
“While the models suggest snow cover should have steadily decreased for all four seasons, only spring and summer exhibited a long-term decrease, and the pattern of the observed decreases for these seasons was quite different from the modelled predictions.
Moreover, the observed trends for autumn and winter suggest a long-term increase, although these trends were not statistically significant.
Possible explanations for the poor performance of the climate models are discussed.”
Oh look ssp585, the famous RCP 8.5 science fiction in disguise….
Here’s a model of me:
Even before the near record snow this year for a couple years running major resorts in the Rockies/Sierras have reported keeping their ski slopes open longer then they ever had before.
During the winter of 1986-87 while stationed at Flint Kasern, in Bad Tolz, Germany, I went through the ski instructor course run by 1st Bn., 10th SFG(A).
Started out with evaluation for the course on a glacier in Austria in late September where prospective trainees were evaluated. Having been selected for the training, from that point on I never went more than two days without skiing until late April.
Though the snows were late in Bavaria that winter and we had to go to the Zugspitze for the first two weeks, when the snows came, they came hard and from then on it was powder, often waist deep, off piste.
That year my ski season began in Austria, the middle part was spent on various mountains in the Bavarian Alps, including a day of helicopter skiing, and it ended at Vipiteno, in Sud Tirol, Italy.
Alarmist climate models are a literal snow job. They even get snow wrong.
Poor alarmist Dr. Viner in 2000: UK children soon won’t know snow. Wrong.
‘Poor alarmist Dr. Viner in 2000: UK children soon won’t know snow.’
Actually, if British education bureaucrats follow the lead of their American counterparts in dumbing down schools, that prediction might yet come to fruition
Johnny..”Teacher, what is that White Flaky stuff falling from the clouds?”
Teacher..”Johnny, that’s a deadly poisonous substance that we can’t go out in because of Globull Worming.”
Johnny..”everyone stay inside, globull worming is poisoning the ground with white poison.
Teacher…(on the phone) “Mr Principal, (whispers) it’s snowing again what do we do about the narrative?
Principal..” Punt”
The dreaded frozen Dihydrogen Monoxide!!
That stuff is so powerful that I have observed it split granite boulders and over time it can even level the tallest mountains!
Teacher: Johnny who was Viner?
Johnny: how should i know?
Teacher you quoted him like scripture, finish your homework
I had always thought that Griff and Simon were the dumbest commenters on WUWT, but then Mosher comes along and proves me wrong.
viner never said that. secondly, he was never a snow expert. go look at Viners publications. opps thats right. he has none.
1 . no hydrology education
“According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.
“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.
Mosh is in full DENIAL mode yet again.
Look at Mosher’s education
Eng Lit… and he’s pretty poor even at that. !
Mosher seems ignorant of the rules of capitalization and punctuation.
Whine whine whine.
Personally, I think wine, wine, wine and a good bourbon would be better.
Needs Cheese Cheese Cheese though
Never bourbon after wine !!!
Never mix grain and grape, so cognac or port after wine, bourbon after beer, or of course malt whisky over here.
Conveniently disappeared from the Independents website, the internet never forgets
https://web.archive.org/web/20130422045937/http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html
See also for Dr Viner’s various positions
https://www.startpage.com/do/search?query=Dr+David+Viner&cat=web&pl=ie&language=english
Why deny it when it takes all of 30 seconds to find lots of references to it?
Yes, remember the context in which he said it, disappearing snowfall in the south of England. Also he said “Heavy snow will return occasionally, but when it does we will be unprepared. We’re really going to get caught out. Snow will probably cause chaos in 20 years time,” and he was right!
GIGO!!!
Why don’t we call it “The great Snow Cover Cover-up”?
How many pieces of evidence do we have to bring forward before the media realizes that the “climate crisis” is a scam, and that the dreaded “emissions” of CO2 have no measurable effect on climate whatsoever?
Hysterical and relentless exaggeration. Cancellation of any questioning voice, no matter how moderate. Clearly, the media has known all along that the “climate crisis” is a scam, and they remain a principal promoter of it.
Look at the ownership of the most rabid global warming supporting news publishers!
The salaries of reporters, editors and publisher salaries and jobs depend upon their blaming global warming on CO₂ and mankind for CO₂ emissions.
Hansen predicted sea level rise would accelerate. It didn’t.
Wadhams predicted Arctic summer sea ice would disappear. It didn’t.
USNPS predicted Glacier National Park would lose its glaciers. It didn’t.
Sterling predicted polar bears would be endangered. They aren’t.
IPCC AR4 predicted Himalayan glaciers would disappear. They didn’t.
Whole lot of misses, zero successes, for ‘settled consensus climate science’.
Which just proves we are not dealing with science, but rather a weird cult.
“Which just proves we are not dealing with science, but rather a
weirdreligious cult.”fixed it
“Which just proves we are not dealing with science, but rather a weird religious cult.”
fixed it 😉
THAT’S A LOTTA FAILED CLIMATE PREDICTIONS
“Rode and Fischbeck (2021), professors of Social & Decision Sciences and Engineering & Public Policy, collected 79 predictions of climate-caused apocalypse going back to the first Earth Day in 1970. With the passage of time, many of these forecasts have since expired; the dates have come and gone uneventfully. In fact, 48 (61%) of the predictions have already expired as of the end of 2020.”
For 60:40 predictions, the odds of being that wrong are 1 in 13 quintillion; for 70:30 predictions, the odds are 1 in 13 septillion. It’s not just climate scientists being randomly mistaken – they knew they were not telling the truth.
For a refreshing taste of scientific and technical reality, please read:
THE CLIMATE AND GREEN ENERGY SCAMS
https://allanmacrae.substack.com/p/the-climate-and-green-energy-scams
Regards, Allan MacRae, Calgary
Background on the above very-good video – Congrats to Willie and Ben Soon:
Dear Friends of CERES-science,
Here is a nice video project (done by my eldest son Ben who is a senior in high-school) that tries to explain the science of snow cover changes over time.
https://www.ceres-science.com/post/the-great-snow-cover-debate-are-we-seeing-more-snow-or-less
https://youtu.be/bnCNz0LvKzs
I hope you will watch and help tell even more people about our works at Ceres-science.com
Thank you.
Have a nice day.
Best regards,
Willie
https://www.ceres-science.com/support-us
As many as exists, they don’t care, they’re part of the cover-up
Herd mentality and the lemming effect.
It all depends on the location and, more importantly, the latitude. I wouldn’t be surprised if some lower latitude locations around the world are seeing a decrease. But again there are factors. There are 20 year periods were less than average snowfall and snow cover are prevalent due to maybe a change in the PDO and AMO. Otherwise, the climate models are wrong for all 4 seasons.
The one thing that can be said with confidence is as the world has warmed modestly over the past couple hundred years, extremely cold winters have become warmer and less common. That’s the reason for why winter has warmed faster than the other seasons; on a graph, those dips significantly alter the trajectory of the line. Otherwise, it’s a statistically insignificant rise.
“The one thing that can be said with confidence is as the world has warmed modestly over the past couple hundred years”
Actually that can’t be said with confidence. Some places have warmed (mostly cities), some have cooled, some have remained relatively static. But, because we’re presented with a “global average”, whether of temperatures or anomalies, it gives the false impression of uniformity.
Oh good point. Well maybe at least the Arctic? The Arctic significantly impacts our weather.
Joe Bastardi postulates that the warming in the Arctic is caused by increased water vapor pumped into the atmosphere by El Niños.
It is worth reading Joe’s comments about why and when.
It only makes sense. How else would one explain the fact that temps in the Arctic winter have been warmer but during the summer they run at or below the mean? Does the CO2 control knob do a double back flip and run away from the Arctic during the summer?
Mostly densely populated urbanized cities.
Mostly at night.
Mostly during winter.
Who knew that CO₂ only works nights in winter where the most people live?
AHA, You have stumbled on the cause of the UHI effect. It is all those people snoring out CO2. Sarc
Uh, how low of latitude. Mt. Kilimanjaro is at a little over 3 deg. latitude and its snow cap has actually grown the last few years. First they claimed it would be gone by 2018 and then 2020 and then after being burned on those predictions they granted the glacier/snow cap a reprieve and now say it will be gone by “the middle of the century”.
Mount Kilimanjaro Snow History (snow-forecast.com)
Not looking so good at the moment: index.php
According to current computer models, snow cover should have been decreasing year-on-year since the mid-20th century. The models make this claim because of global warming. They also predict that this trend will continue and even accelerate. They suggest that soon many countries will no longer experience snow
nope
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-9/
WRONG. From your link:
The maximum extent in the NH has been trending upward since reliable global records have been kept.
Hey Steve, this is deliberately a semi public comment. Next time you want me via Charles to vet for you privately one of your increasingly desperate energy storage schemes, check the reality of NH snow cover first.
And the Executive Summary contained in the link is rank speculation and misdirection. Also, what is this ECS they reference as being consistent across the studies? More government lies.
Quoting IPCC.. lol !
Not good.. worse than Wikipedia when it comes to reliability and science.!
Computer games..? meaningless trivia.. !
“Quoting IPCC.. lol !”
And worse, Steven’s quote actually refutes Steven’s claim.
🤣 😂 🤣 😂 🤣 😂 🤣
Like Algeria, Israel, Pakistan and many other subtropical environments?
The concluding paragraph to section 9.5.3.2, “Evaluation of Seasonal Snow in Climate Models”, on page 1286 (just above Figure 9.24, which you added to a later post in this comments section) :
– – – – –
1) Please provide an extract from Chapter 9 that supports this bald assertion.
2) Please show that the “they” who are “suggesting” that outcome equals “the IPCC”, and not “the voices in my head”.
From section 9.5.3.3 “Projected Snow Cover Changes”, on page 1287 :
3) Please “show your working” for the supposedly “logical” argument that starts with the above summary from the IPCC and ends up with “They suggest that soon many countries will no longer experience snow”.
3a) Please quantify the timescale behind the vague and subjective use of the word “soon”.
3b) Please quantify how “many” countries “will be” involved in your claimed complete cessation of “experiencing snow”, or provide a list of (at least 3 ?) specific names.
The warming ocean surface in the NH has to lead to more snow cover. Peak ocean surface temperature is reached in August, which means peak atmospheric water is reached in September. That moisture laden air is transported over land during October, as the sunlight over land north of 40N is dropping dramatically so the surface is cooling.
Heat advection from oceans to land in the cold months of the NH is accelerating. More than half of that heat is in the form of latent heat that results in snowfall whenever ground is below 0C.
The location and time of greatest “global warming” is the Greenland plateau in January. That is resulting in Greenland gaining permanent ice extent and increasing elevation of the summit. It is the inevitable consequence of the peak solar intensity over northern oceans in July increasing. And that increase is accelerating.
The common belief that snow is the result of cold weather is wrong. It actually depends on the amount of atmospheric water, which requires ocean heat, and the surface temperature being below 0C. That is inevitable over land north of 40N in late fall and winter. Once snow is present on the ground, it is hard to melt it so tends to keep the location cool but it took a lot of heat to get it there – every tonne of snow on the ground took the equivalent heat of burning 100kg of coal to liberate is from an ocean surface.
The last four interglacials all terminated with rising June sunlight in the mid latitudes of the NH. Exactly the same time in the precession cycle as now.
The NH snow cover trend from 1972 is around zero.
You are looking at the trend of annual average. The maximum extent occurs in Winter and it is trending up:
https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_seasonal.php?ui_set=nhland&ui_season=1
The Fall extent is trending strongly upward as you would expect with warming ocean surface in the NH:
https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_seasonal.php?ui_set=nhland&ui_season=4
And the Spring extent is falling. That will continue until the snow begins to accumulate on land again. Still a century or two away.
When the conversation with educated people shifts towards climate change I ask people if they have seen misdirection coming from the government in their areas of education and expertise. I can’t think of a single instance where anybody has said that the government generally provides complete and accurate information, with most people saying they are aware of instances where the government has lied in official communications. I suggest to them that in the climate arena government communications directed to the general population contains gross misinterpretations and, often, outright lies. I generally keep my examples of government lies limited to their assertions that extreme weather events are becoming more frequent or intense. Most people are shocked at the long term hurricane statistics and government’s cherrypicking of short timeframes to misinform citizens.
Most people I know are aware of my background in electric utility generation, transmission and distribution. They generally accept my assertions that wind, solar and batteries will not reliably nor economically provide electric power them.
Dave Fair,
The best example I have seen is the IPCC line that heatwaves are increasing
In severity, getting longer, hotter and more frequent. They rely on about 5 references, all of which start around 1950 and fail to treat the 1930s dustbowl in the USA and the deadly 1896 heatwaves in Australia.
My own analysis, some stations back to 1860s, does not support the IPCC conventional wisdom. Geoff S
My tablet under Windows 10 seems to suffer interference from Microsoft trying to get me to change my ways to use their new software variations. Right now, they have somehow turned on voice recording as well as typing these comments, so I have to forever correct for the voices on radio and TV. Then, in conflict, it sends part-finished comments without me pressing the Post Comment button.
Help appreciated. Geoff S
Microsoft:
Settings, Privacy, Speech. Turn off speech recognition
Settings, Ease of Access, Interaction, Speech. Turn off Speech recognition.
Settings, Privacy, Microphone and Voice Activation. Control what accesses your microphone.
It might help if you uninstall Cortana.
Sometimes, I’ve gone and disabled my microphone and camera drivers to prevent access from unauthorized programs. Just be sure you know where to go to restore both, either.
If its a laptop or desktop get Linux Mint, MATE edition.
https://www.linuxmint.com/rel_vanessa_mate_whatsnew.php
You should be able to resize drive and do dual boot without damaging the windows installation.
If its a tablet, touch and all, get the latest Fedora and try it from a USB drive before installing it. Fedora Workstation. Current is 38. Tablets are often a bit more complicated than laptop or desktop so be careful or get help.
https://fedoraproject.org/
Fedora is also a reasonable choice for laptop, and you can also get a MATE edition, or install MATE afterwards.
MATE is a simple, stripped down desktop environment which just gets out of your way and keeps out.
Have you tried Linux? You can usually use it in parallel with Windoze.
aparently the author doesnt understand charts and graphs
The Chimps are at it again !
Meaningless garbage. !
You are correct, finally!
The author of your comment does not understand that real data is required for charts and graphs.
With fake and adjusted data they are simply kindergarten finger paint pictures.
The author doesn’t accept crap is more like it. Here are some graphs of actual data from Rutgers Snow Lab:
And you apparently do not seem to understand that “charts and graphs” can be “tweaked” to support a specific narrative.
NB : This applies just as much to me as it does to everybody else in the world.
The caption under that graphic in AR6 starts :
Mudryk et al (2020), “Historical Northern Hemisphere snow cover trends and projected changes in the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble”, includes a graphic showing the “improvements” of the CMIP6 model hindcasts (up to 2014) compared to the CMIP5 model runs.
A copy of their “NH snow extent” figure is attached below. Careful examination reveals some “minor” differences between the original paper’s “Figure 3(b)” and the graph “printed” in the AR6’s PDF file.
From the text of Mudryk et al :
If you remove “obvious outliers” from a model ensemble then the end result will be closer to “reality” and have a reduced “error range / confidence interval”.
Who’da thunk it ?
and bang on cue, BBC come up with something.
It’s about tornadoes in the US and is ‘interesting’ is how the presenter turns Nothing into Something
How he uses pauses, stops, breathlessness, wide eyes, exaggeration and of course photos to create a message that Climate Change is making things worse.
While at the same time, avoiding accusations of bias and mendacity by saying ‘balanced things’ but not giving them any emphasis.
headline: “The damage done by 80 tornadoes in a week
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-us-canada-65208609
It’s Psychology, you’re being brainwashed. The art of being alarmist while making out you;re as cool as as a cucumber.
Maybe here’s how the media have learned how to do it – here’s an example of that brainwashing, or ‘selective memory’ in action from a situation as far removed from tornado as you might get.
headline:“Taylor Swift fans report ‘amnesia’ following Eras show”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-65765368
What they describe in the concert goers is effectively ‘Information overload‘
i.e. So many things are happening or are presented, in fast moving slide shows and brief video snippets, that the viewer only recalls very specific little things.
By placing the pauses/ breathlessness, wonder-eyed-wonder and icy eye contact on the dramatic bits and skating over the boring bits, you come away with a picture of “It’s worse than ever”
For tornadoes and weather it works a treat – those things are so photogenic that no matter what happens, a skilled psychologist/photographer/reporter will always make Something Dramatic out of a Really Boring Everyday Event.
(If that don’t describe IPCC reports – what does)
The giveaway and what is especially bugging is the relentless use of ‘At least‘
As in “At least 13 people died”
So how many people did the tornado actually kill? Was it 14, 15 or 1,000?
i.e. They do know but ain’t saying – they are lying.
And nobody is immune – we see the selective recall all around here so very often..
e.g. ‘Kids wont know snow’
Watch out: Minutia Miners and Trivia Creators – you’ve been sussed/outed.
By the very people creating so much of that very thing – the BBC
And they’re so dumb, so blinded by their own BS, that even they can’t see it.
Very good detailed look behind the ‘news curtain’ at how the sausages are made.
That date is May 31st.
Nor am I aware of any F4 or F5 tornadoes so far in 2023.
Tornados have plenty of historical records. Most show the modern era as deficient compared to history.
Right now, tornadoes are not anywhere as numerous as they could be in USA.
Keep in mind that ancient history, i.e. more than 20 years ago, most tornadoes were reported from sightings. A tornado touches down and nobody saw it or cared to report it, means it wasn’t recorded.
Improved radar now allows more tornadoes to be spotted by radar.
Tornadic clouds may cause a tornado to drop down and lift up frequently. Until tornado paths can be analyzed well after the event, every touch down is recorded as a separate tornado.
“8. OKLAHOMA IS GROUND ZERO FOR THESE BEHEMOTHS.The central United States is aptly nicknamed “Tornado Alley” for its tendency to see more tornadoes than anywhere else in the world, and that total includes at least a couple of big, mile-wide tornadoes every year. Central Oklahoma holds the record for both the largest and the strongest tornadoes ever recorded. A tornado that touched down in El Reno, Oklahoma, on May 31, 2013, measured 2.6 miles wide at one point, easily breaking the record for the widest tornado ever observed. Back in 1999, a mobile Doppler weather radar recorded winds of more than 300 mph in an F5 tornado that touched down south of Oklahoma City.”
There are dust devils, waterspouts, tornadoes and severe tornadoes. Neither dust devils nor waterspouts are recorded as tornadoes yet dust devils are common in the American west and water spouts are frequent in the Gulf of Mexico.
Proving that your weather guy is an actor first, a meteorologist a distant second.
America and Canada are experiencing a relatively mild tornado year. Proving that the BBC’s “Disinformation Department” is pushing more disinformation for your TV tax pounds sterling.
In May we set a new record. It now has been over a decade since an EF-5 tornado has been observed. First time since modern records began.
While the spring season this year got off to a strong start it has now been stunted to maybe 2-5 tornadoes a day in N. America. The trend is not the alarmists friend and so they must lie.
Looking at the video (@6:39) we see the IPCC people in a classroom with a blackboard. Two things of note: 1) the writing on the board is business related (“sales increases” vs “profit”) and 2) the intelligent people at the desk are wearing masks.
This must be typical IPCC thinking; how stupid can one get?
Judging by the summit of Pikes Peak here, the correlation that I’ve seen is strongly connected to ENSO, and no, snow cover isn’t declining.
Very nice.
the iron range just saw two of its best snowmobile seasons in, like, forever! or at least since satellites.
Every time I hear “the model says”, I promptly ignore the article.
From experience with modelling, computer or physical, I have found most are driven by the predispositions of the designer or maker. Some have also been poorly designed and have factual errors, especially the computer models.
I admit I am limited to modes relation to underground mining, covering subsidence and ventilation. Some have been poorly designed and have factual errors, especially the computer models.
I suspect my thoughts also can be applied to the “climate models”.
Are We Seeing More Snow or Less?
No matter the answer to that question, the point I think is that we are seeing that the climate model projections suck!
Actual snow cover Alpes