Essay by Eric Worrall
h/t resourceguy – Lucid, a startup which manufactures high end luxury EVs, reports demand has fallen short of expectations.
Lucid to cut 1,300 workers amid signs of flagging demand for its EVs
PUBLISHED TUE, MAR 28 20234:40 PM EDTUPDATED TUE, MAR 28 2023AT 8:13 EDT
John Rosevear@JOHN__ROSEVEAR
- Lucid said in a regulatory filing that it is cutting about 18% of its workforce, or roughly 1,300 workers.
- In a letter to employees, CEO Peter Rawlinson said the job cuts will hit “nearly every organization and level, including executives.”
- The company expects to take charges of $24 million to $30 million related to the cuts, most of that in the first quarter.
Struggling EV maker Lucid said in a regulatory filing on Tuesday that it plans to cut about 18% of its workforce, or roughly 1,300 employees, as part of a larger restructuring to reduce costs as it works to ramp up production of its Air luxury sedan.
Lucid said it will incur one-time charges totaling between $24 million and $30 million related to the job cuts, with most of that amount being recognized in the first quarter of 2023.
News of the job cuts was first reported by Insider earlier on Tuesday. Lucid’s shares closed down over 7% on Tuesday following the Insider report.
…
Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/28/lucid-to-cut-1300-workers.html
Lucid has $4.4 billion cash, which is enough to last until Q1 2024.
I’m no fan of EVs, but I feel sorry for people who are losing their jobs, in what may be a tough year.
Sounds like Lucid may be over-priced. Here is a summary of growth 2021/22:
“Global EV sales continued strong. A total of 10,5 million new BEVs and PHEVs were delivered during 2022, an increase of +55 % compared to 2021. The regional growth pattern is shifting, though. Following 2 years of steep sales increases in Europe, EVs gained only +15 % over 2021 there. Weak overall vehicle markets and persistent component shortages have taken their toll, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine. EV sales in USA and Canada increased by 48 % year-on-year, despite a weak overall light vehicle market which plunged by 8 % during 2022 y/y. The 2nd half of 2022 saw a cautious recovery of auto markets as numbers compared to the low results of 2021 H2. Global light vehicle sales for 2022, 81 million units, were still -0,5 % lower than in 2021 and -15 % below pre-2020 levels.
China NEV sales defied all headwinds the country faced otherwise (real estate crisis, Covid outbreaks and lock-downs) and increased by another +82 % year-on-year. BYD more than tripled sales to 1,85 million units, making it the #1 in the global sales ranking, if their 944 500 PHEV sales are included. Counting BEVs only, Tesla still leads by a wide margin with 1,31 million units delivered in 2022.”
Almost all BEVs are overpriced. They are mainly being bought as part of salary packaging to garner tax concessions. They are not sought after in the second hand market because ownership costs are so high.
They are a fad that will fade until they make economic sense. Hybrids make sense and the small battery is replaceable or even repairable at an affordable cost.
Insurance and inconvenience of charging is already eroding the potential market. And very few jurisdictions are burdening the vehicles with road maintenance cost that is being borne by ICE vehicle owners.
Lamborghini is coming out with a 12 cylinder 6.5 L hybrid. 0-60 mph in 2.5 seconds.
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a43399836/2024-lamborghini-revuelto-revealed/
Think of hybrid as an electric transmission
The same way locomotives have operated for years!
Probably be more expensive on tyres than fuel – extra weight, high torque.
racing weekends used to be 800 in tires.
for qualifying you better use fresh tires all around, inflate with argon
or nitrogen
ONE tire
Aventador STANDARD TIRE KIT LP700-4$5700
Add to cart
I read somewhere that 12 cylinder engines run smoother because they are easier to balance. Basically the amount of mass going up is always equal to the amount of mass going down.
There is nothing exotic about mutually opposed cylinders.
If mutually opposed cylinders was all it took, then all motors with an even number of cylinders would be equally smooth.
BTW, It’s been a long time since I’ve seen a pancake engine.
More fun, although less green, will be the option to replenish it using the V-12 which turns the rear electric motor into a generator. Doing that takes just six minutes to top up the battery pack
like the mazda that uses its rotary engine to recharge the battery
yep – SW a client regarding his Tesla. What is his experience? Worst decision he made, Can’t charge it when he needs to. Build quality is crap. It just stopped dead one day. It buzzes, and drones like an out of tune AM radio, He’s going back to ICE Porsche.. I said — welcome back to the real world..
the real world of the well off- most of us can’t afford a Porsche either- not that I’d want one- I’m happy with just a good old boy pick up- I’ve got a Toyota Tacoma that’s now 20 years old and going fine
Got ya beat. My two cars were built in 1930. Easy to work on, reliable and lots of fun. One is also a pickup.
Same here. 21 year old Toyota Sequoia that I take on 3,000 mile trips 3 times a year. Pampered and paid for.
typical 911 owner. if they had their way there would be no changes to the car, still air cooled, still rear engine,
dont try to buy Porsche used parts
https://www.pelicanparts.com/Porsche/
Utter garbage. Did I mention 911?
porsche utter garbage? if you say so
It is definitely easier to own an EV if you can charge it at home. It’s always full and you don’t have to stop for gas.
one of a kind vehicles cant be overpriced.
Lucid is at the high end, which is saturated.
growth will happen at the mid range and low end
In 2023, we’re predicting that the sub-$30,0000 used EV market will surge, and a greater variety of makes and models will be found below $25,000. By 2024, this sub $25,000 sector should be filled with EVs offering 250+ miles of range, especially if the Bolt EV and entry-level Tesla prices fall as a result of restored EV tax credit eligibility for those two models.
Thinking about the future of the used EV market also gives us a moment to consider how much it has changed since we began tracking it. In July 2021, for example, almost 57 percent of used EV inventory was priced below $25,000 and 64 percent was below $30,000 A year later, thanks to inflation, high demand, and an influx of pricey, newer pre-owned models, those percentages dropped below 13 and 19 percent, respectively.
250 miles will get me to breakfast.
raise chickens
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-28/byd-s-net-income-jumps-more-than-400-on-ev-sales-surge?re_source=boa_related
They are not sought after in the second hand market because ownership costs are so high.
wrong
In 2018 the Tesla S costs (2018 model in 2018 vs today)…
Excluding tax credits, the 2018 Tesla Model S 75D has a Manufacturer’s Suggested Retail Price (MSRP) of about $74,500, including the $1,200 destination charge. For the high-horsepower Model S 100D, you’ll spend nearly $94,000 and for the P100D with its Ludicrous mode, you’ll shell out over a Ludicrous $135,000
Model——battery cap–Price 2018 vs Price today
Model S —75D battery $74,500 – $39,900(35K MI KBB)
Model S -100D battery $94,000 – $49,990 (35K mi Dlr)
Model S P100D battery $135,000 $63,190 (35K mi KBB)
If anything, they’re not sought after in the secondary market because they depreciate so rapidly
Sales due to getting in before the subsidies stop , just wait to road user charges get applied ouch
last couple of months sales have collapsed
Most electric car sales are to companies due to tax breakes ordinary consumers that pay there own repair bills do not want a second hand one
I predict plenty will be in the wreckers yards soon
Whenever and wherever subsidies were removed, solar cell market also collapsed. More of this to come for all “renewables” and EVs.
All BEVs are overpriced Nick. Without state grants and current tax bribes no one would buy them. Small correction to that statement. No one would buy one using their own money. State funded bodies, councils and so on will continue to be hoodwinked into pushing the scam benefit of all battery powered vehicles.
“No one would buy one using their own money.”
Some will- to impress their elite peers- especially in places like Martha’s Vineyard.
When their neighbors already have EVs, there ends that virtue signal option.
I wonder how many of the EVs in wealthy communities are simply leased?
Owners that will simply return their leased vehicles when they cease getting attention for simply owning an EV.
The Martha’s Vineyard crowd might buy EVs but they sure don’t like wind turbines within site of their mansions or their yachts. They’ve fought against the wind farm for a long time. But they think it’s fine to put huge solar “farms” out here in central Mass. where we poorer folks will love looking at them from our decks.
https://electrek.co/2022/08/24/current-ev-registrations-in-the-us-how-does-your-state-stack-up/
go ahead and prove your point
say what? are you responding to my saying “Some will- to impress their elite peers- especially in places like Martha’s Vineyard”??
What I meant was when the subsidies are stopped- the rich- and there’s a lot of them here in Woke-achusetts, will buy EVs with their own money. Heck, what’s 75K when you’re a millionaire?
North Dakota and Wyoming are the clear winners.
In Norway the government passed legislation that from 2022 all Public Authority procurement of cars had to be zero emission vehicles (electric or hydrogen powered) and from 2025 all city buses likewise. They also have a ‘national goal’ that all cars sold from 2025 should be zero emissions.
Well Norway can at least afford it, with all their fossil fuel sales paying the way.
so, are all those EVs using only “green” energy to produce the electricity they use? funny how some people think all EVs are green automatically since they have no emissions, if you don’t count all the emissions to produce them nor the power source
They better pour a lot of new sidewalks.
well after many posts here predicting copper shortages, lithium shortages
and grid collapse.
i found this
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/02/16/cobalt-a-crucial-battery-material-is-suddenly-superabundant?utm_campaign=a.io_fy2223_q1_conversion-cb-sub_prospecting_nam-us_direct_na&utm_medium=digital-display.external-content.pd&utm_source=outbrain-outbrain&utm_content=conversion.content.non-subscriber.content_staticnative_np-native294-n-oct_na-na_article_1x1_na_na_na&utm_term=sa.lal-websub-15&utm_id=359259139&dicbo=v4-0Nud5eX-1080386085&dclid=CjkKEQjw5pShBhDOoZyb3tqu5YcBEiQAkmq_4n7LXIYP1bH2eaipQ_t221X2cMCw8LA-TgwHuFdNK9zw_wcB
And 7 years from now the world will only need 2X current copper production to support nut zero. No problem. It only takes 16 years to open a new mine in the US, if it can be accomplished at all.
Remember there’s over 2.2bn ICE vehicles on the road that will need to be replaced to eliminate Gas/Diesel transportation fuel in just Cars, Trucks and Busses. They will need batteries and those in use today will need replacement batteries. Homes will also need Powerwall batteries for recharging and emergency outage coverage. And Utilities will need MegaBatteries for Inconveniently generated Solar Power storage so it is available when needed instead of when generated. Also there will be 196 countries globally wanting those same batteries for the same reasons. Then in about 20 years most of those batteries will need replacements.
Cobalt stores needed for Battery tech for Global Transportation and Utility Storage is unsustainable given how long they last. Then, if China creates them both the battery and vehicle is sure to Flambe in 10 years
Tesla sold over a million EVs without tax credit bribes.
Nick Stokes is right about the general trend of EV and hybrid sales worldwide. Sales aren’t declining despite Lucid’s poor performance. They are growing.
And RickWill makes an excellent point about government subsidies fueling sales. Remove the subsidies and they aren’t as popular because they’re still more expensive than the average consumer wants to spend.
When (if) EVs become economical for most people, they will almost certainly become more popular. They’re simpler and cheaper to build and maintain than internal combustion vehicles, they outperform them by almost every measure, and they don’t pollute. Save all your arguments about coal-powered electricity. If Los Angeles had only electric vehicles their (diminishing) smog problem would be vastly improved because EV’s don’t emit air pollution. And coal isn’t the only source of base load electrical power, nor does it pollute much anymore thanks to stringent pollution controls.
The biggest problems for EVs are battery cost, efficiency, and raw source materials. Same for rare earth minerals for the motors. Even more problematic is leftist government that constrains mining of source materials so countries like China dominate the market. The technology of batteries and motors is constantly improving and we haven’t hit an upper limit yet. The problem of stupid government isn’t.
“Sales aren’t declining despite Lucid’s poor performance. They are growing.”
Still lots of rich folk who don’t yet own one- once they all get them, the market will find out that middle class and certainly the lower income people won’t want them. Or, some may want them but won’t be able to afford them. I wouldn’t mind having one if somebody GAVE it to me. I have an electric chainsaw, an electric lawn mower- nice products but I could barely afford them, never mind an EV.
LOVE my little 12 inch battery powered chain saw. I have felled dead standing trees up to 20 inch diameter with it. 2 4 Ah batteries will cut enough rounds to fill the dump bed on my Ranger stacked as high as I can get it.
Actually I love ALL of my battery saws, drills, drivers, impact driver, grinder, etc. Never need to pull out an extension cord unless I pull out a BIG hammer drill/demolition hammer.
2 years ago, when the forest around the cabin were really dry, the forest service restricted the use of gas chain saws. It did slow me down, my Stihl 30 inch gas saw is way faster, but didn’t stop firewood gathering.
Nope, sales are falling and off a cliff when the taxpayers cash stops. The US will be the exception at the moment under the dribbling fool Dementia Joe as he is burning through the money but even in China there has been a drop. Many factors such as rising costs, increasing charging costs, realisation of their impracticality but the huge depreciation of an expensive purchase is dawning on people. In the UK most battery cars are on lease deals so they can be given back but the companies are finding them very hard to shift. In the UK battery cars are taking twice as long to sell on the secondhand market as normal vehicles.
I think second-hand EV are going to be problematic.
Well would you want to buy even a 4 year old EV knowing that in another 4 years you may have to fork out many thousands of pounds on a new battery?
I have not met a person who wants a second-hand hybrid.
“The technology of batteries and motors is constantly improving and we haven’t hit an upper limit yet.”
Yes we have. Electric motors are close to theoretical maximum. Batteries cannot go much further before they become an explosion risk as opposed to simply a fire risk.
Thermodynamics will have its say.
But wishful thinking is more powerful than thermodynamics, right?
Greenies believe that something like Moore’s law applies to battery technology, i.e. that they will smaller and lighter while storing much more per volume and being cheaper to produce.
The laws of physics do not apply to the Climate Nutter religion.
Moron’s Law.
“They’re simpler and cheaper to build and maintain than internal combustion vehicles”
Cheaper to build but more expensive price tag? How is that?
On paper they are simpler and cheaper to maintain, but if one factors in the cost of battery replacement, this argument evaporates.
The claim that they are cheaper to maintain has never been realized in the real world, but that won’t stop the electric advocates from making the claim.
“The claim that they are cheaper to maintain has never been realized in the real world,”
Any evidence for that MIUMark? Or did you just MIU? In my experience owing an EV is way cheaper with regard to maintenance. Maybe tell us about your experience? Oh wait….
Poor Simon, reduced to nipping at heels.
So once again….. nothing. Do you just throw words in the air and try and make a sentence? Or perhaps do you just think…. what can I say that will sound “credible,” to see if I can get it past the “gullible” here?
I’ve tried answering your questions. You just keep asking them.
It’s almost as if you have no intention of learning.
You remind me of a Chihuahua, only not as cute and no where near as intelligent.
Well…. What evidence do you have that….
…”the claim that they are cheaper to maintain has never been realized in the real world,”
Don’t throw your toys and use some silly childish putdown. If you have proof, spit it out man?
So again…. no proof. Dare I say it, you “made it up.” As least you are consistent.
Doing some quick research, LA air quality for the last month has been GOOD except for two days which appear to have been not GOOD due to the made up hazard of 2.5 particulates being out of the GOOD range. So LA smog is really a BAD problem.
NOT. BS
As to EVs outperforming etc. I call BS. Articles here show that EVs cannot be the sole vehicle for a typical family due to the limitations for travel distances and charging. Only the “well to do” can afford them even with the massive subsidies which are mostly hidden.
As to EVs not polluting, I call BS. Articles here show over the lifetime of the vehicle, EVs cause much more pollution in mining and manufacture and are much less recyclable than ICE vehicles.
And as to COAL, in China, almost ALL the new EVs are being powered by new COAL power plants. Over 90% of new electrical generation capacity actually coming on line in China is COAL. So the GREATIST country for new EV sales IS powering the EVs with COAL. BS #4
Note: I do not consider hydro as “renewable” in the sense that Hydro has ALWAYS been a major part of the electricity generation mix, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adams_Power_Plant_Transformer_House. All the other NEW highly subsidizes or forced by minimum % state laws crap is all that can be claimed as “renewable” energy. In China, less than15% of total electricity generation is CLAIMED to be from (non hydro) renewables, if you believe their numbers, which I do not.
stinkerp has already declared that he doesn’t care about the pollution caused by the electricity he is using, since it doesn’t occur near where he lives.
So I doubt he will care about pollution caused by mining and manufacturing, unless those activities start happening in or around LA.
If LA switched to 100% electric cars, the change in the level of pollution will be more or less unnoticeable.
The air pollution in LA is not coming from cars. In fact because of all the pollution control equipment, especially the catalytic converer, the air is cleaner after passing through the car than it was going in.
The pollution is coming from 10’s of millions of people just living their lives. House cleaning products, painting, heck, one of the major sources of pollution are bakeries.
BTW, I just love the way you endorse pushing your pollution off on other people.
As to your claims that batteries and electric motors are both improving and have lots of room for future improvement.
That is total BS. Battery performance is determined by the elements used in the two opposing terminals. Since they haven’t found any new, stable elements in over 100 years, it’s a safe bet that there aren’t any more to be found. That means that every possible combination of materials with which to build a battery is already known and has been researched.
As to electric motors, they are a technology that is also well over 100 years old. Until room temperature super conductors are available, there are no non-trivial, improvements left to be made.
Even room temperature super conductors would only improve the efficiency of motors by a few percent.
The biggest problems for EVs are battery cost, efficiency, and raw source materials. Same for rare earth minerals for the motors.
omg!
elon is way ahead of you. do you guys at wuwt actually THINK people in the business dont understand the contraints??
for gods sake
https://smallcaps.com.au/tesla-eliminate-rare-earths-next-generation-electric-vehicles/
when it comes to production cost
look at gigapress.
not seeing that from ICE. why? there is no pressure to reduce cost. ICE will not drive technology will not leverage technology. WHY?
ask yourself why self driving cars will be electric
why it took forever to integrate MP3 into ICE cars.
ICE is dead
Self-driving cars—another really stoopid idea.
Just another component of the globalist de-population agenda.
I’ve not seen a significant evolution in battery technology … in a decade. I guess your definition of maintenance doesn’t include battery replacement.
“The biggest problems for EVs are battery cost, efficiency, and raw source materials.” That’s all? I would add subsidy expiration to that; and not just the overt subsidies, but the hidden ones as well. The federal government is giving Wyoming $25,000,000 to build EV charging stations – to support a population of 330 EVs; a $75,750 subsidy for every EV owner in the state. The insanity of a centrally planned economy, writ large.
I forgot one other, looming, substantial issue facing EVs…grid reliability.
There’s a lot of wealthy people in the world who can afford them- but once they have them, you’ll see fewer middle class people buying EVs and certainly no lower income people. So the large sale volume to the wealthy doesn’t prove they’re going to take over the world.
According to the IEA some 10.8m EVs were sold worldwide in 2022 compared to 64m ICEVs. There are over I.4 billion conventional cars, lorries etc in the world today. EVs taking over? I think not!
All BEV’s are over priced compared to comparable ICE vehicles.
Once the subsidies are removed, they are even more over priced.
Yawn… and if you took the subsidies off the oil industry products, gas cars would be too expensive to drive (for many).
I am livid over this Lucid story.
Livid?
I’m charged up over it, well at least until my batteries fail
You’re charged up? I’m incandescent!
At least it’s not a compact ….
And that’s the last we’ll hear of you, given the exorbitant replacement costs. But you may be wealthy or receiving subsidies, and in that case we’ll expect to hear even more from you.
Making bets on government subsidies is treacherous. If there is no organic demand for the product, there are decided limits on sales.
It was smart of Tesla’s Musk to target the rich, trendy, early-adopter, hot-rod loving, money no object people as he first customers – they don’t care about practicality or economy. Shame the politicians think its ok to give rich people tax money ripped out of the hands of the working class to subsidize the toys of the rich under the guise of ‘curing’ the weather.
Hot rodders don’t like EVs. The allure of a mopar is the sound above all else. 🙂
I don’t do any hot rodding these days, but even so, when I step hard on the gas in a vehicle, I still want to hear the engine roar. OK, my 4 banger Honda doesn’t do any roaring but at least I can hear the engine wind up and know that it’s doing something…. The Hemi engine in my Dodge Ram, now it actually roars!
Accelerating in a vehicle without that roar (even if a very fast acceleration) would be like watching an action movie with the sound turned off…. gunfire, crashes, explosions, etc., and you hear nothing! Or maybe a lion that cannot roar, or a big intimidating dog that cannot bark. In other words, it is missing something.
Street, Lee,
EVs are sympatico with declining testosterone levels in male members of Western societies.
Just play a recording of a mopar revving and screeching off the line as you pull out
The Hellcat Superstock with the Redeye engine sounds pretty sweet.
He also got a cult status for Tesla such that buyers would wait months for cars, overlook their shoddy build, but eventually these types will run out.
Just as testosterone levels are declining in the west, so is IQ.
It takes a LOT of money to push a rope uphill.
Rystad energy consultants reported today that EV sales in Jan fell 50% from Dec as the subsidies expired – no surprise – the whole green energy movement can’t survive without massive subsidies
but.. but… we’ve been told that green energy is FAR cheaper than fossil fuels!
They should give each of the laid off workers a free EV each and a very, very long extension cord…
Nah just give them a small trailer with a Honda Pull-Start
With the money wasted on these EV starups, investors could have built pyramids, or something else useful.
Just what kind of Pyramid Scheme are you proposing?
Given the current (hopeful says Dopey Joe) state of the economy, pyramids might be a great place to store cash.
OK, I LOL on that one, thanks!
Lucid is toast! The gig is up for electric cars because they are failing to come close to meeting expectations based on misleading promises. People are experiencing many problems in the real world with their under performance.
Even if they were a good idea, the grid is already overloaded with too much electricity demand and not enough supply in places like California.
Take away power dense fossil fuels and replace them with diffuse, intermittent and anti environmental solar and wind at a cost of over 400 trillion…….20 times the GDP to do something that’s a really bad idea using grid level storage batteries that don’t exist.
Calculating The Full Costs Of Electrifying Everything Using Only Wind, Solar And Batteries
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2022-1-14-calculating-the-full-costs-of-electrifying-everything-using-only-wind-solar-and-batteries
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/93452/#94200
https://tradingeconomics.com/lcid:us
I wonder if Nick Stokes has invested in Lucid.
He’s more of a Canoo type.
Here in the UK, we had a YT presenter, do a vid, on his journey from Heathrow to the North of England. He was sorely in need of a charge, as he drove along the M1. The first service area he pulled into, the only charging point, had just been taken.
At the next service area, he found the only two charging points, were not working. On them was a notice, chargers not working owing to a lack of grid electricity.
Maybe this set of news stories about Rivian will underline the viability of seemingly massive order backlogs.
story tip
Rivian Has More Bad News as It Cuts Costs – TheStreet
Rivian Makes Progress, Still Has Massive Backlog of Orders (autoweek.com)
At this rate Rivian will cease operations with massive backorders of units.
Then there is Canoo.
EV maker Canoo has ‘substantial doubt’ about going concern as cash runs low | Reuters
Canoo secures another binding EV order, this time for 9,300 LDVs (electrek.co)
EV company Canoo loses another 8 senior employees as it struggles with 2022 production goals | Fortune
I think one of the major reasons I despise EVs and renewable energy is, with all of the billions wasted on their development, real problems could have been solved. We could have hardened the electric grid to prevent a catastrophic failure resulting from another Carrington Event or perhaps reduced real pollution and environmental degradation in Asia or brought Africa into the 21st Century. You know trivial concerns
We had a near miss on the 13th of March it went the wrong way bet the dumb pollies don’t even blink
They really do hate poor people, Nick and his gang.
Lucid is swimming in an ocean of red ink losing $1.6 billion last year.
Lucid’s cash flow is also abysmal, but I doubt the Saudis will allow them to go under and will keep the firehouse of cash flowing in.
TESLA has the highest net margins (15%) of any large car manufacture with most large competitors having 1~9% nat margins with many losing money in their EV divisions.
TESLA will soon have 15,000-ton gigapresses capable of producing both chassis and car bodies in one shot each, which will further decrease production costs by 30%, reduce the number of robots by 30%, and greatly decrease production time/vehicle.
it’ll be difficult for the completion to match Tesla’s low production costs net and margins.
EVs will eventually replace ICE vehicles.
You had me nodding until that last sentence.
The current kinds of EVs, with all their rare and expensive materials, will never become mainstream.
And by the time solid state capacitators or some other new-fangled storage tech comes along, some entirely different vehicle tech may have beat it to the punch.
Scarecrow-san:
Tesla is developing used EV battery recycling technology that will be apparently be able to reclaim 95% of all the expensive and rare metals, which will be another huge revenue source for Tesla.
How much fossil fuel will be required to reduce all those lithium salts back to the metal?
Note the ‘apparently’. I mean Musk would NEVER mis-represent reality, would he?
He always speaks the truth. I use my class 8 Tesla truck to haul my Cybertruck fleet wherever I go.
So Musk claims.
What’s the count on Musk claims that never panned out, up to these days.
Until the range and charge time problems are solved, electrics will NEVER replace ICE vehicles.
Reducing robot numbers? Robots…the next unemployment crisis
Wonder if they’ll start picketing at the factory gates?
How will they afford to put little Cogsworth through school?
Clever 🙂
Robots can produce either things in high demand, or anything else.
I’d like to see them produce a baby
Tesla will start producing ice vehicles / hybrids to get sales volumes up
HB-san:
Tesla will never produce hybrid or ICE vehicles because they’re too expensive to build, inefficient to run and maintain and don’t fit into Tesla’s philosophy of “The best part is no part, and the best step is no step.”
For example, prior to Tesla’s patented 6,000~15,000 ton giga press technology, a typical chassis was comprised of over 200 stamped and forged pieces that all needed to be welded together involving 1,000’s of steps.
Now a Tesla chassis will be produced as just one part and produced entirely in just one step that is lighter, cheaper, faster, stronger, perfectly symmetrical, and uses far less material.
Moreover, Tesla has patented the extremely complicated giga press process and hardware so it will be extremely difficult for other manufacturers to replicate it,
Trade secrets are as fleeting as military secrets.
“Tesla will never produce hybrid or ICE vehicles because they’re too expensive to build”
Rubbish – EV’s cost more to manufacture that an ICE vehicle – way more..Most of the additional cost is in the battery pack.
SteveG-san:
I was referring to ICE vs. EV production assembly costs.
ICE/hybrid vehicles have 1,000’s of parts, 1000’s of productions steps and huge amounts of labor time required to assemble.
Tesla now has about 20 major parts requiring very few man hours of human labor, and they also don’t need to worry about UAW labor union strikes or funding UAW pensions since none of their few line workers are unionized.
Granted, EVs are initially more expensive than ICE cars, but factoring in lower maintenance costs and no gas costs, the all-in average ownership costs are about the same after 100,000 miles.
“I was referring to ICE vs. EV production assembly costs.”
The same efficiencies in production can be used for ICE cars.
So Tesla has no wheels, brakes, shock absorbers, struts, instrument panels, seats, radios, etc.? You probably need to learn a little bit about vehicles and vehicle production before you make wild statements. If Tesla has “20 major parts” to assemble, I can assure you that the labor to make those parts is done elsewhere and still factors in the vehicle cost.
EVs have lower maintenance cost, but repair costs are much higher. The purchase price of EVs is higher than for a comparable ICEV and they depreciate much quicker than an ICEV. So if you factor in those costs, the EV does not look so good. And at 100,000 miles your ICEV will still get the same range on a tank of gas but your EV will get you a significantly lower range. Tesla warranties 70% of range at 8 years and 100,000 to 150,000 miles, depending on model.
The claimed lower maintenance costs for EVs is often stated, but never found in the real world.
The vast majority of things that have to be repaired or replaced year in and year out exist on both ICE and EV.
Pretty much the only thing that has to be done on a regular basis for ICE vehicles is replace the oil, and even that is done much less often than it used to.
Please provide a link to SOMETHING legitimate that shows what you say. Be sure that the analysis includes all hidden transfers of wealth from tax payers and ICE manufacturers and government and major corporation installations of infrastructure not born by the actual end EV user such as the multi billion dollar charging station funds from the US federal government.
What is apparent is not the whole story.
Also add the transferred costs of road maintenance from EV owners to ICE owners, or REMOVE gas taxes from the total cost of operating an ICE vehicle.
My hope, on the first “reconciliation” bill by a Republican congress and POTUS, is that all avoided road taxes from the beginning of EV production will be charged retroactively to the owners of record for each year of ownership and total miles driven, with a 20% surcharge due to the excess weight. Kick them in their virtue signaling wallet.
If those thousands of parts and steps mattered as much as you believe, ICE cars should be way more expensive to build than electrics, even today.
The reality is that you have been sold a bill of goods and now you are trying to pass them along to others.
As to your 100K cost projections, once again, complete BS,
You are completely ignoring the cost of electricity and the cost of road use taxes, which electrics don’t yet pay.
The only major expense for ICE maintenance is replacing the motor when it wears out. Replacing a motor is a lot less then the cost of a new battery, and the motor will last a lot longer.
“produced entirely in just one step”
then use that same process to produce ICE cars! same benefit
Samurai, patents are supposed to disclose how an invention works in exchange for temporary exclusionary rights. Other companies can overcome exclusionary rights and inevitably will if so desired.
In any case, the market will decide. The market cap of Tesla is down about 50% from its high in 2021. We shall see what happens. Certainly, several Tesla cost trends are down.
Fundamentally, kinetic energy is proportional to mass, something Tesla cannot violate.
Why do you think that an EV body is that much different from an ICE body? The propulsion system is different and an EV can use the battery pack as part of the underbody but EVs and ICEVs are just vehicles. Do you think Elon Musk has hired all the smartest engineers in the world and no other automakers could simplify their vehicle build if it was desirable? Production cost is one factor in automobile design. Serviceability, weight, recyclability and quality are other very important factors which Tesla doesn’t seem to worry about as much as other companies. Time will tell if this is a good idea or not.
You really have been taken in by the hype. While it is possible for a single piece body to be a bit lighter the amount is small. The only material savings are in the welds themselves.
As to the cost of welding, as long as it’s being done by robots, that was never a significant fraction of a car’s cost.
Using a press to stamp out parts, is not patentable.
I’m wondering, do you have a shrine to Musk in your home? From the way you gush over him, one wonders.
They won’t if the governments insist on nut-zero policies. There simply won’t be enough electricity to charge them. Consequently, demand for BEVs, will decline. The result, will be only the super rich will be able to afford them. With a severely reduced market, will there be a justifiable business case to continue production?
how well will EVs work in severe winter weather? if you don’t have a garage, will they even start if left out in subzero F weather? if driving at night in winter with lights and heater on, how much faster will that run down the battery?
If there’s a power outage last several days- it looks like we won’t be able to cook our food, heat our home, have lights nor a car to drive- once we arrived at “clean energy paradise”.
And how will these vehicles be serviced when they are in an accident? They will become throw-aways.
The amount of money spent building the bodies of Tesla cars was never a large portion of the cost of the vehicles.
Even if the claim that production costs are reduced pans out, it won’t reduce the cost of the cars by much.
Exactly my thought, if you buy a battery car, you are buying a battery. Trimming a few dollars off the frame won’t change much.
When the Climate Alarmists talk about sustainable energy options and car choices, they were referring to the sustainability of state hand outs. As the public awareness about the down side of BEV vehicles dawns the market is operating as markets do.
“Honey I grounded the TESLA on the road speed calming humps again, do you think I should ask Larry down the car shop to pull out the dent”….?
Sales are falling dramatically due to income limits on EV credits. This was enacted with the ‘inflation reduction act’.
The AGI is too low for those that would buy these vehicles.
In addition, your modified adjusted gross income (AGI) may not exceed:
$300,000 for married couples filing jointly $225,000 for heads of households$150,000 for all other filersLink for EV credits from IRS website: https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/credits-for-new-clean-vehicles-purchased-in-2023-or-after
I love how these vehicles are considered ‘clean’. They are mobile toxic waste sites – in both the manufacturing and disposal process.
Why do I have to help pay for someone else’s battery car through my taxes?
Because liberals believe they know what you need, better than you do.
Net Zero is BS, and will die in the face of reality. It is already happening.
This is just the wrong product. The large luxury sedan market is small and already has great EV options from Tesla, Mercedes, BMW, and others.
If you think EV demand is low, try calling your Ford dealer to ask about buying an F150 Lightning. After they stop laughing, they’ll tell you that the waiting list is 2+ years.
Or maybe have a look at used Hummer EV listings to see how the used vehicle market is doing. $200k for a supertruck seems to indicate that someone likes them.
The Wrangler 4xe and Rav4 Prime plug-in hybrids are also seeing demand well in excess of production capacity.
The waiting list is 2 years because of parts supply issues and hugely reduced production volume, not because of massive demand. Every manufacturer has a huge waiting list right now.
Ford just can’t afford to make any more EV’s since losing 3 billion dollars on the ones they have already made.🙄
The waiting list is 2 years because they can only build 2 or 3 a year.
The low lying EV fruit has been picked.
Better stick with ethanol (not) and lithium (also not).
story tip
Evacuations underway after freight train derails, catches fire in Minnesota – ABC News (go.com)
Scooter lithium battery investigated as cause of 5-alarm Bronx fire, FDNY says – CNN
FAA: Lithium Battery Incidents On Planes Now Happening More Than Once Per Week (forbes.com)
Firefighter Hell: When an Electric Car Bursts Into Flames – The American Prospect
Maybe if EV’s aren’t going well for them they can move into Tulip futures.
CryptoTulips
The Lucid Air is built in Arizona, but at a starting price of $87,400 it’s far too expensive to qualify for the federal tax credits. The trims that Lucid is discounting are even pricier: The Air Touring starts at $107,400; the Air Grand Touring at $138,000
trying to judge the EV market by Lucid is stupid
https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/used-electric-vehicle-buying-report
In 2023, we’re predicting that the sub-$30,0000 used EV market will surge, and a greater variety of makes and models will be found below $25,000. By 2024, this sub $25,000 sector should be filled with EVs offering 250+ miles of range, especially if the Bolt EV and entry-level Tesla prices fall as a result of restored EV tax credit eligibility for those two models.
Thinking about the future of the used EV market also gives us a moment to consider how much it has changed since we began tracking it. In July 2021, for example, almost 57 percent of used EV inventory was priced below $25,000 and 64 percent was below $30,000 A year later, thanks to inflation, high demand, and an influx of pricey, newer pre-owned models, those percentages dropped below 13 and 19 percent, respectively.
Put down yer money for battery car yet, mosh?
“ In July 2021, for example, almost 57 percent of used EV inventory was priced below $25,000 and 64 percent was below $30,000 “
I recall an early section of Econ 101 regarding supply, demand, and price.
Might be a good time for review. But it is time for bed. 😊
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-22/china-s-nio-very-confident-of-reaching-sales-target-cfo-says?re_source=boa_related#xj4y7vzkg
As a resident of Casa Grande, Arizona this is bad news. Many of those employees live here and surrounding towns and cities that grew fast over the past years just to work at Lucid and other businesses that came here because they did. While I don’t see it as bad as boomtowns like for mining and oil that had fast growth to fast ghost-towns when the mines or oil ran out or prices dropped. It will hurt the local economy and real-estate.
For over 25 years I worked as a durability/reliability test driver at Nissan North America Test Center (NTCNA) and retired in 2022. Many of the employees from all departments went to work at higher pay to Lucid over the past several years. Friends, acquaintances and previous coworkers that I know, are part of this layoff.
Due to the climate in Arizona nearly every automotive company tests their vehicles here and at NTCNA we had several 3rd party manufacturers testing their vehicles from around the globe there and we often used competitors’ vehicles we drove to compare them both on the many test tracks and off property routes around Arizona. In 2016 because of my years of experience I was Awarded as the highest paid Durability Driver in North America. Our job was to put harder than average test miles on vehicles that depending on the test and courses within a year of driving could be equal to 3 – 15 years of average wear and tear. One of the most important parts was calculated to know when replacement parts were expected to be available. As well as giving what we did or didn’t like about the vehicle in every way, that could be improved in current manufacturing or new models. I often drove hand-built prototypes years before production started. For some tests we would nearly destroy a vehicle just to test a single new part for its durability. This included EV’s and hybrids. (I’ll note here that as a teenager working farming and custom harvesting, I often drove equipment from manufacturers that they wanted tested with onsite engineers and test equipment I had to watch and adjust as I worked.)
i hope you guys are all short on EV makers ans all the ICE manufacturers who are going EV.
or do you have no faith in your predictions