Tilak Doshi Contributor
I analyze energy economics and related public policy issues.
49 BCE Julius Caesar crossed the Rubicon river with the 13th Legion, a defiant act that signalled the start of the Roman Civil War.
The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant on 17th March against Vladimir Putin, leader of the world’s largest energy exporter (Russia), accusing him of the war crime of illegally deporting hundreds of children from Ukraine. Five days later, China’s President Xi Jinping – recently confirmed for an unprecedented third term — said he was ready to ‘stand guard over a world order based on international law’ as he met President Putin in Moscow. “International law” seems to have different interpretations, and the ICC evidently does not have a monopoly on what passes as international law in the concert of nations.
According to Wikipedia, the ICC is an international tribunal seated in The Hague, Netherlands with over 100 countries having ratified the Rome Statute, meaning that they are willing to use the ICC in their States. Among the countries that do not recognize its jurisdiction are Russia, China and the US. While the ICC matters little in the daily life of the world’s billions of ordinary mortals, it aims to exhibit a global consensus on criminality including genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes and the crime of aggression.
While opinions differ on criminality, the war in Ukraine has upset the daily life of people around the world. Food, fuels and fertilizers have become more expensive for everyone, and the world energy order has turned for the worse. To be sure, the covid pandemic lockdowns and prior “green” anti-fossil fuel policies had already set the stage for inflation and shortages of essential foodstuffs and industrial commodities even before the outbreak of the Ukraine war. The war itself merely accentuated the inflation and fraying of supply chains that was already apparent across the global economy.
Phone calls and diplomacy
President Xi, we learn, is slated to have a call with President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine after the former’s visit to Moscow. According to CNN, a “senior Ukrainian official” said that “discussions are underway with China to organize a call between the Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to discuss Beijing’s proposal for a peace plan for Ukraine”.
Meanwhile, we are also told by the Biden White House spokesman John Kirby that “President Xi has been kind of busy of late. I mean, he had the People’s Congress, which just ended; now he’s in Moscow. So, look, when it’s the right time and — for both leaders, we’ll get them on the phone.” The last time President Biden’s request for a phone call was not answered immediately was about a year ago, when it was reported that the White House was “unable to arrange calls between President Biden and the de facto leaders of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates” as US officials tried to garner international support for Ukraine and tame a surge in global oil prices.
While global leaders meet (or not) and when they have phone conversations (or not), life goes on. And whether any of the global leaders are alleged “criminals” (or not), they seem to meet and talk (or not) when it is convenient to them. What is clear now, one year into the Ukraine war, is that peace is not around the corner. During their meeting in Moscow this week, Presidents Putin and Xi referred to each other as “dear friend”, promised economic cooperation, condemned the West and described their mutual relations as the best they have ever been.
While Presidents Xi and Putin were confabulating in Moscow, European Union countries agreed in Brussels on Monday for “a 2 billion euro plan to send 1 million artillery rounds to Ukraine over the next year by digging into their own stockpiles and teaming up to buy more shells.” On the same day, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced $350 million in new US military aid to Ukraine (in addition to an estimated $196 billion provided to Ukraine from January to November 2022) and expressed renewed support for the stance of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky who has demanded a complete Russian withdrawal from Ukraine including Crimea.
The Energy World Cleaved
As President Xi departed Moscow at the conclusion of his trip, he told President Putin: “Now there are changes that haven’t happened in 100 years. When we are together, we drive these changes.” In response, Putin replied, “I agree.” President Xi’s parting words seek first to demonstrate what both countries publicly advocate: the transition to a multipolar world beyond the American-dominated Bretton Woods system based on the US dollar as the international reserve currency. Second, they accentuate the growing Russia-China strategic partnership.
After Russia invaded Ukraine, the U.S., U.K., EU and allies imposed the most comprehensive and harshest economic attack on a sovereign nation in recent history. The Western alliance expropriated half of the Russian Central Bank’s foreign exchange reserves held offshore – which had totalled some $630 billion — and blocked key Russian banks’ access to the SWIFT international payments system. Since February 2022, multiple sanctions have been applied on Russian individuals and institutions, with a focus on the country’s main export sectors, in particular oil and gas. The all-out economic warfare launched on Russia was meant to devastate the Russian economy, collapse the ruble and possibly lead to regime change with the ouster of President Putin.
In the event, the ruble rapidly fell to half its value after the invasion in February. But by June the ruble was at its strongest in more than seven years — earning it the distinction of being the best-performing currency in the world. In January this year, Reuters reported that Russia posted a record current account surplus of $227 billion in 2022, up 86% from 2021. Russian output will expand 0.3% this year (and 2.1% next year), defying earlier predictions according to the IMF which upgraded its January 30th forecast from the previous October forecast of a 2.3% contraction. Russia, according to the IMF, will perform better than Germany or the United Kingdom this year.
This was aided by robust oil and gas exports at high prices despite Western efforts to isolate the Russian economy. Russia replaced revenues lost from its reduced oil and gas exports to Europe with a pivot to China, India and other countries which did not participate in the sanctions. India and China quickly became major customers of Russia’s displaced energy exports at discounted prices.
The global energy order has been cleaved into two blocs – those supporting the Western sanctions on Russia and those that don’t. The latter constitutes most of the countries outside the narrow Western alliance of the US, EU, UK and their closest allies such as Canada, Australia, Japan and South Korea. Brazil, China, India, and South Africa (members of the BRICS bloc) share a compelling interest with all developing countries to access fuels, food and fertilizers – of which Russia is a “full-spectrum commodity superpower” – at lowest prices.
For sovereign nations, being told to “take sides” is an affront. This was well illustrated during Antony Blinken’s tour of some African countries in August when he went on “a charm offensive in Africa to regain the US popularity which was lost ostensibly during the Trump administration, and to counter the attempts from Russia to get more African countries on their side.” In pointed remarks to the press with Mr. Blinken sitting at her side, South African Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor said that she objected to “patronizing bullying” coming from the West: “Because when we believe in freedom – as I’m saying, it’s freedom for everybody – you can’t say because Africa is doing this, you will then be punished by the United States…. One thing I definitely dislike is being told ‘either you choose this or else.’”
For leading developing countries such as Brazil, India, China and South Africa, ensuring that they do not become the next victims of a globalizing West wielding its dominance in international financial institutions is as important as protecting their freedom to trade with a commodity superpower such as Russia. China’s Global Times, the daily tabloid published under the auspices of the the Chinese Communist Party, put it this way: “The thought the US may move to grab anybody’s assets who refuses to obey Washington’s dictates is truly unnerving, which is now inducing more countries to diversify their reserve assets away from US dollars.” Gita Gopinath, the IMF’s Economic Counsellor stated much the same thing by noting that “sanctions on Russia could erode the dollar’s dominance by encouraging smaller trading blocs using other currencies.”
While the US dollar’s role as international reserve currency will not be replaced anytime soon, a process of bifurcation of the global economy has already begun. We are now witnessing the emergence of parallel commodity-based financial blocs in trade, investment, finance and development loans. This will be facilitated by new financial institutions such as the BRICS’ New Development Bank and China’s Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the increased use of currencies other than the US dollar in regional energy trade. Moscow and Beijing are working on the creation of an international reserve currency and an integrated inter-bank payments system based on a commodity-linked basket of BRICS currencies to counter Western financial sanctions.
The global energy system: A glimpse into the future
For Europe, the loss of cheap Russian gas — the basis of Germany’s Wirtschaftswunder (post-war economic miracle) — is irreversible even if the sabotaged Nordstream pipelines can be repaired. The damage to the mutual trust necessary for long-term trade between Russia and its European neighbors will not be so easily mended. Europe will undergo continued energy demand destruction, leading to de-industrialization, steep falls in living standards and social strife.
The US, well-endowed with energy and other natural resources, will gain comparative advantage in manufacturing over a vassalized Europe. The US under the Biden administration is beset by an incoherent energy policy that simultaneously wages a regulatory war on its domestic oil and gas producers to “fight climate change” while berating it for not producing enough to bring down domestic gasoline prices at the pump (an important consideration in presidential popularity). Yet, as a federal system, the US boasts many constituent states that fiercely guard their domestic industries that include coal, oil and gas. In January, twenty-one state attorneys-general released a letter that objected to the use of so-called environmental, social and governance (ESG) criteria by investment advisory companies and suggested that this possibly constituted an illegal violation of fiduciary duty.
Developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America that are not themselves net fossil fuel exporters will face more expensive energy supplies and slower economic growth. They will weigh their own national interests and make their own energy choices. Their choices will not necessarily be cynical and transactional but likely reflect their own attempts to climb the energy ladder that led the West to its current high living standards. For these developing countries, the Russia – China axis is a major geopolitical determinant while India’s “non-aligned” role remains important in its own right.
The Ukraine war is a watershed moment in history and the world has changed forever. The future global financial and energy order, bifurcated if not balkanized, will be less efficient with more expensive fuels and greater inequalities of access. When Julius Caesar crossed the Rubicon in 49 B.C., passing “a point of no return” as understood in English idiom, he uttered (according to some authors) the phrase alea iacta est (“the die is cast”) before crossing the river. It is doubtful whether any such self-aware thought crossed the minds of policy makers in the Biden administration when they decided to sanction Russia.
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I have worked in the oil and gas sector as an economist in both private industry and in think tanks, in Asia, the Middle East and the US over the past 25 years. I focus on global energy developments from the perspective of Asian countries that remain large markets for oil, gas and coal. I have written extensively on the areas of economic development, environment and energy economics. My publications include “Singapore in a Post-Kyoto World: Energy, Environment and the Economy” published by the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (2015). I won the 1984 Robert S. McNamara Research Fellow award of the World Bank and received my Ph.D. in Economics in 1992.
“more expensive energy supplies”? But oil costs less now than before the run-up to the Ukraine war. https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/ And why? Because of a global banking panic that started in the US but is spreading everywhere, including China. There is still one global capitalist system–supported a great deal by artificially high petroleum prices. Russia and China’s governments are capitalist and can’t opt out of that system. No posturing on TV will change that. But we can opt out. We can help get to a fusion-powered society. see more: https://www.lppfusion.com/ And the financial system based on petroleum, which is already bankrupt, can be swept aside. Result–cheap, clean safe and unlimited energy for all.
Those lower energy prices are due to the U.S. and Europe having near-zero real growth GDP
US real GDP growth in 2022 was at a +2.1% annual rate
That is not “near zero”
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in European Union expanded 1.7 % YoY in Dec 2022.
Real GDP Growth YoY data in EU is updated quarterly, available from Mar 1996 to Dec 2022, with an average rate of 2.0 %
A +1.7% annual growth rate is close to the +2.0% average
And +1.7% is not “near zero”.
‘US real GDP growth in 2022 was at a +2.1% annual rate. That is not “near zero”’
With all do respect, Richard, GDP is a horrible economic metric. In formula form, it is:
Government + Investment + Consumption + Net Exports,
GDP puts public sector spending, e.g., stupid wars, the green new deal, etc., on par with private sector spending, which is an irrational. Better to ignore public spending or to subtract it, since it’s parasitical.
Inflation adjusted GDP’s?
I have heard of actually measured GDP, which is sum of all transactions — which certain school of economists calls “nominal GDP”. And of GDP objectively adjusted by intrinsically subjective factors — which they call “real GDP”. And “GDP growth”, which is simply change in that value.
But what the dumboozle is “real growth GDP”?
Of course, even unadjusted GDP depends on the way of measurement, and is likely to be bogus whenever the state is a major participant. Consider that infamous Pentagon pricing is but an atavism of grift rampant in the Gilded Age, while the newer forms include entire bogus industries (like those windmills). Still, there’s morbid curiosity.
Another reason is that Putin’s natural gas and Oil found it’s way back into the global market….per above article….. Russian Oil and Gas went East and else where. During the transition, prices were driven higher. This is evidence that Russian and China has not, will not or is unable to completely partition their so called Eastern sphere commodities market. The global market continues.
If they are able to partition their commodities market in the East….. Brandon and the WEF climate paradigm will collapse under a fuel shortage crisis.
The only way to stabilize the global situation is to frack on and pump on and every producer side step the WEF climate paradigm and seek peace and partner with China and Russia to develop Russia and the East.
Oil prices are lower because Biden has released an “emergency” 180 million barrels of oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve with another 120 million planned through 2032. Another 60 million barrels were released by other countries in 2022.
According to Harris Kupperman, world oil demand prior to the SMO was about 1 million barrels per day more than supply; the SPR releases offset that.
But China was locked down most of 2022; that’s over now. It takes a little time for a locked down economy to resume – we’re looking at around 6 months before the impact of that occurs.
Strategic Petroleum reserve sales were mainly in 2022.
How could they affect the price of oil in late March 2023?
The following March 3, 2023 article includes a chart:
Finding the Will to Refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve – Northern Trust – Commentaries – Advisor Perspectives
The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Petroleum Reserves announced that contracts have been awarded for the purchase of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to meet its Congressional obligation to sell 26 million barrels in Fiscal Year 2023.
The release from the SPR was purely political so Biden could dupe the gullible media into believing he was doing something. The amount of oil released was too small to make a difference in global prices.
You had me right up until the unicorn fantasy of fusion which negates all of your preceding comments.
Fusion is coming in ten years
Everyone knows that.
Greta knows it too.
She has a PhD in Religion
Indeed. It was coming in ten years for what, a bit over half a century? The easy heuristic (Lindy effect) suggests that most likely it will be coming in ten years for another half a century or so. ;]
Please state your time frame. WTI Intermediate was about $25.00 a barrel May of 2020. March of 2021 it was about $61 both lower than the $69 of recent days.
https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/
March 2021 at $61 is $69.46 in February 2023 dollars
March 2022 CPI index = 264.914
February 2023 CPI Index = 301,648
Change from March 2021 to February 2023 = +13.87%
SOURCE OF DATA:
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average (CPIAUCSL) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)
Thanks for info, Dick, but equal to is not less than as stated by elernegic.
It’s amusing to hear somebody call Red China capitalist. The People’s Republic is totalitarian. This is anti-capitalist by definition. “Capitalism,” a derogatory term coined by Marx, depends on freedom. Market-driven or market economy is the correct term.
While China remains officially communist, it’s economy is better described as fascist. Fascism is not capitalism. Fascism sometimes pretends to be capitalistic, but it’s truly another flavor of Marxism.
As for oil prices, the oil market anticipates decreased demand because of continued global economic problems. Please note that this isn’t a market correction. This is the consequence of multiple failed government policies.
What is your definition of “capitalist”? Or at least, what is its source?
Because it appears to be an anti-concept.
He has some very strange perceptions on recent events.
I assume ‘He’ refers to the author of the above story. There’s a war going on. The first victim in any war is the truth … so there’s that.
Things have been changing for a while, especially with respect to China, but the war has accelerated things.
President Biden made it clear, in his Ottawa speech a couple of days ago that we’re moving into a new world.
The old theory was that, if we integrate China and Russia into the international economy, they won’t dare cause trouble because that would wreck their own economies. That’s obviously wrong.
There are any number of ways to interpret Biden’s speech. Mine is that we’re looking at Fortress North America. There will be greatly increased defense spending and greatly reduced foreign trade. We will be supplying, as much as possible, all our resource needs locally, and that includes oil. There will be trade with ‘friends of the family, like Australia and Japan, but that will be on America’s terms.
But it is wrecking Russia’s economy. There are many YouTube channels that focus on the war and discuss the Russian economy. It’s going down fast.
The idea that American trade with “friends” will be on America’s terms is presumptuous, presuming America is going to ruthlessly exploit those nations. Japan is doing just fine, thank you, for selling millions of vehicles and other products to America- and America lets it get away with a huge trade imbalance, as we’ve done with China, only more so with China. As for Australia, it’s a great friend of America with a similar culture and we saved that nation in WWII. Now, China complains that America is going to send a small number soldiers there – a few thousand. I suppose the China lovers hate it too- but Australia can’t wait for America to beef up its forces in the region. And China complains about America expanding its military presence in the Philipines. Oh, look how America abuses China and Russia. How terrible- and we abuse our trading friends too. Oh, makes me cry.
” the Russian economy. It’s going down fast “
Two sources that contradict that claim:
IMF
The International Monetary Fund delivered some uplifting economic news to Vladimir Putin. The Russian president should now make the case to his own government, which doesn’t share the IMF’s optimism. The international body recently estimated that Russia will avoid a recession in 2023 and expand by 0.3% after shrinking by 2.2% in 2022.
Russian stock investors (a leading indicator) for 2023, for the week ending March 24, 2023 a(nd for year to date through Friday March 24.)
The Russian MICEX average is one of the strongest stock averages in the world so far in 2023, of all the indexes I follow every week:
Honest Climate Science and Energy Blog: Off TOPIC: Financial Data and US Economic News Summary for the week ending March 24, 2023
Russia’s MICEX jumped 3.0% (up 11.0% y-t-d).
S&P500 gained 1.4% (up 3.4% y-t-d)
Dow Industrial rallied 1.2% (down 2.7%)
U.K.’s FTSE gained 1.0% (down 0.6% y-t-d).
Japan’s Nikkei added 0.2% (up 4.9% y-t-d).
France’s CAC40 rallied 1.3% (up 8.4%).
German DAX gained 1.3% (up 7.4%).
Spain’s IBEX 35 recovered 0.8% (up 6.8%).
Italy’s FTSE MIB rallied 1.6% (up 9.2%)
Brazil’s Bovespa dropped 3.1% (down 9.9%)
Mexico’s Bolsa rallied 1.6% (up 8.9%).
South Korea’s Kospi increased 0.8% (up 8.0%).
India’s Sensex declined 0.8% (down 5.4%).
China’s Shanghai Exchange added 0.5% (up 5.7%).
Turkey’s Istanbul National 100 fell 2.0% (down 8.7%).
assuming you actually would like to learn something
INSIDE RUSSIA
read what a REAL Russian economist thinks about the whole affair- he can speak FREELY because he moved to Uzbekistan
https://www.youtube.com/@INSIDERUSSIA/videos
as for the war:
Joe Blogs
a UK economist
https://www.youtube.com/@JoeBlogs/videos
Denys Davydov
a Ukrainian commercial pilot
https://www.youtube.com/@DenysDavydov/videos
Artur Rehi
a former Estonian soldier
https://www.youtube.com/@arturrehi/videos
Jake Broe
an American financial analyst and now a war analyst
https://www.youtube.com/@JakeBroe
Ukraine Matters
a Ukrainian commentator
https://www.youtube.com/@UkraineMatters/videos
Insights from Ukraine and Russia
this site has recordings of Russian cell phone calls
https://www.youtube.com/@insightsfromukraineandrussia/videos
Operator Starsky
a Ukrainian soldier
https://www.youtube.com/@StarskyUA/videos
William Spaniel
had deep analysis of the war
https://www.youtube.com/@Gametheory101/videos
Ryan McBeth
a retired American soldier- expert on weapons
and many, many more as I spend more time following the Russian Disaster than I do the climate lunacy
No, it’s the theory that trading with Russia and China will bring us peace that is wrong. Yes, the war is effecting their economies. No, it didn’t stop the war.
The unemployment rate is 3.5% in Jan 2023
The MONTHLY rate has been STEADILY decreasing from 6.3% in Sep 2020, to 4.1% in Feb 2022, to 3.6% in Jan 2023
See graph in URL
https://www.statista.com/statistics/277043/monthly-unemployment-rate-in-russia/
Here is a graph for the ANNUAL unemployment rate decreasing from 13.04% in 1999 to 5.01% in 2021
https://www.statista.com/statistics/263712/unemployment-in-russia/
Extremely long winded with everything but the kitchen sink mentioned at least once. Lies about the Ukraine War, as expected. And the history of Ukraine seems to begin the moment Russia decided to stop an eight year- long geno cide within Ukraine. The usual Zelensky is a god, Putin is the devil, bias
“The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant on 17th March against Vladimir Putin, leader of the world’s largest energy exporter (Russia), accusing him of the war crime of illegally deporting hundreds of children from Ukraine.”
This is a lie.
In fact, what happened is that three million Ukrainians VOLUNTARILY fled to Russia to avoid death in the war. This was VOLUNTARY, not a kidnapping. There may have been some war orphans within the three million total. Russia gets no benefit from three million immigrants suddenly arriving and certainly did not invite them or capture them.
The Ukrainians most likely to flee were Russian speaking Ukrainians who had been subject to a geno cide for the past eight years. 11,000 Ukrainian civilians had been murdered by the Ukrainian military since 2014 for the “crime” of wanting a vote for independence from the very corrupt government in Kiev ( that the Biden family loved since 2014 ).
Only one third of Donbas region residents wanted independence, so they would have lost the vote. Instead of a vote, they were turned down with artillery shells and sniper’s bullets for the past eight years. That is a geno cide. And nations all over the world who had pledged to stop geno cides in 1948 (The Genocide Convention) did nothing about any geneo cide in the world until Russia acted in 2022. But 2022 was eight years too late — 11,000 Ukrainians had already been murdered by their own military
Russia annexed ONLY the Donbas region to stop that geno cide. That was legal by the 1948 Genocide Convention and could have been good news for those Ukrainians, even though they did not want to be part of Russia.
The only natural effect the war would have had on energy prices, in the absence of arbitrary government trade barriers was using more fuel for military vehicles by Russia and Ukraine.
The war created a strong incentive for Russian companies to sell more energy products to other nations, increasing profits, and increasing income taxes paid to the Russian government.
It was some Western nations that first arbitrarily decided to stop buying Russian energy products, and then Putin responded by ordering his companies to ship less gas to Europe. A trade war started by politicians that did not benefit any nations involved.
The US responded by blowing up two natural gas pipelines used by Russia — an international criminal act — to make sure EU nations could never be major customers of Gazprom again and would have to buy more US LNG.
“The Ukraine war is a watershed moment in history and the world has changed forever.”
This is speculation not likely to be true. One could have said the same thing about every war in history. It is a meaningless platitude. So what if Russian energy exports now go mainly to other nations after the war started, than before the war? That is unlikely to be a “watershed moment”. The world has changed forever is a bizarre statement. Every day the world changes forever.
The prices of energy products went up with the general inflation rate in the past few years. Helped by Western governments adding energy taxes, new regulations and mandates, and discouraging exploration and production of hydrocarbon fuels for the past eight years. Hydrocarbon fuels capital investment peaked in 2014.
That trend has nothing to do with the Ukraine War. Where the US proxy fights Russia by using over 100,000 young Ukrainian soldiers as cannon fodder in a failed attempt to weaken the Russian military. President Biden should be impeached and convicted for his huge role in killing young Ukrainian soldiers, in a losing effort to get Russia out of the Donbas region — the only section of Ukraine they were interested in, to stop an eight-year geno cide of Ukrainian civilians that everyone outside of Ukraine ignored for the past eight years.
Here’s the latest news on “Winston Churchill” Zelensky acting like the dic tator he has always been:
Carlson: Ukraine is ‘Cracking Down on Faithful Christians,’ ‘Closing Churches,’ ‘Arresting Priests and Nuns’ | CNSNews
Now the Putin haters and Zelensky lovers may begin their usual childish character attacks on me.
A whole lot of unverifiable assertions there. All I know as verified is that Putin is a dictator while Ukraine changed corrupt leaders several times; Russia promised in 1994 to honor Ukraine borders, including the 1954(?) transfer of Crimea from Russia to Ukraine, but has broken that promise at least three times (2014 grab of Crimea, supporting rebels in Donbas, and invading Ukraine); and even aside from the broken 1994 promise, invading another country for territorial annexation as Putin did was far worse than the US invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan.
Putin comes out worse the Zelensky by any verifiable measures I know of. Doesn’t make Zelensky an angel, doesn’t justify all these backdoor billions in aid. But it also doesn’t justify treating Putin as the good guy in any comparison.
Kruschev handed Crimea to the Ukrainian Soviet as a reward for the purges
Krushev used to be a mine worker and union boss in East Ukraine
but look at a map- it makes sense that Crimea is part of Ukraine- it belonged to the Tatars until the Russians invaded a few centuries ago- Stalin exported them to Siberia- it has little justification to have it back other than it would be a nice addition to its empire
Crimea was a vassal state of the Ottoman Empire.
The Tartars were slave raiders of Russian peasants in Ukraine, which was part of the Russian Empire
Tartars were selling the slaves to the Ottoman Empire, for many decades.
Katherine the Great put an end to it by winning multiple wars against the Ottoman Empire, which ceded Crimea and much of the land areas bordering the Black Sea, in 1783.
Prior to all that, the Black Sea was an Ottoman Empire lake, because it controlled all of the shores.
The Russian Empire promptly established a naval base in Crimea to protect its newly acquired lands.
Many Tartars fled to the Ottoman Empire, many were executed by Russian for selling their relatives and because of prior slavery and treachery
But, But, But, slavery is only African blacks sold around the world, not whites sold around the world.
Get your story straight!!
sarc/off
Ukraine threated to seize Crimea and close the only Russian naval base that can be used in the coldest weather. Before 2014, about 90% of Crimeans preferred to be part of Russia, rather than part of Ukraine. They were not upset by being part of Russia.
The Ukrainian military killed 11,000 Ukrainian civilians from 2014 to 2022
That genocide accelerated in early 2022, just before Russia invaded the Donbas region and simultaneously attacked Ukraine military bases to protect their troops in Donbas, without touching Ukrainian civilian infrastructure for the first six months.
The claims that Russia armed eastern Ukrainians has never been verified, along with the claim that Russian soldiers were secretly in Ukraine before 2022, and the false claim that Putin kidnapped children
Which fact above do you want to debate?
Please be aware that governments were responsible for a HUGE number of lies about the 2022 election, Covid, Covid vaccines, Climate change and Nut Zero. THEY CAN NOT BE TRUSTED on the subject of Ukraine, Russia, Zelensky and Putin.
But it seems that people here who don’t trust governments about climate change and Nut Zero, which is why this website exists, seem to trust governments talking about their enemies DURING a war. That trust is puzzling.
Putin and Zelensky are both vicious leaders, and both are probably corrupt.
Nations of the world have never tried to stop any genocide after World War II until Russia acted in 2022, Russia acted eight years too late and had no idea there would be a proxy war with the US, because there was no proxy war with the US over Crimea.
That over 100,000 Ukrainians have been killed in vain is sad.
Russia annexed the Donbas region and won the only battle they intended to fight. But horrible Zelensky and Biden don’t want to admit they lost the battle for Donbas. They obviously missed killing Russian speaking Ukrainian citizens there. So they have never stopped doing that. But now their Donbas targets also include Russian soldiers. Who can not be expected to be “sitting ducks”. Ukrainians have killed some Russians, but they are losing at least five Ukrainian soldiers for each Russian soldier killed. Does that make any sense? That is insane.
Does the US rejecting two peace proposals, that we know of, make any sense?
If you are pro-Ukraine, then you are pro-destruction of Ukraine.
The situation there is like the US fighting a war in Afghanistan for over 20 years — the longest war in American history — just to avoid admitting we lost that war during those 20 years. What was the purpose of that?
The purpose – Geopolitics ala Brzezinski, Bernard Lewis. The US doing British geopolitics, a brain and brawn thing.
Meanwhile the Dollar Reserve is on the way out despite mass murder, color revolutions all over the place.
High time to take on the real problem head-on and reorganize that financial system.Tremors of the looming Big One are Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse…
Russia and China are fully aware of the real problem.
All the talk publicly of $billions for Ukraine sidelines the real problem.
geopolitics is reality- everybody does it- better for the world to be dominated by America than dictators- unless of course you prefer dictators
the dollar reserve isn’t going down- America’s inherent strengths dwarfs any other nation
US debt dwarf all other nations combined. Numerous financial people document that. A huge subject itself.
BUT US debt is OWNED by the world. And when and if the US dollar is no longer the world reserve currency, all of those dollars must be spent in the US. They will be used to purchase US production at whatever cost the debt owners will be willing to pay. High prices I would think.
Why is China attempting to buy up US land. They are spending their dollars on something that is worth something NOW.
The US needs to reestablish itself as an industrial nation, self sufficient in all needs. Stockpile any minerals not available in North America that are NEEDED. That does not include much of what goes into EVs, wind and solar because they are not NEEDED.
‘BUT US debt is OWNED by the world. And when and if the US dollar is no longer the world reserve currency, all of those dollars must be spent in the US.’
There’s a huge difference between US debt and US dollars. The debt represents a dollar IOU that can only be repaid with dollars obtained by the Federal government from taxing the bejesus out of its citizens and/or inflating the money supply until the dollar itself becomes worthless.
Fortunately, since most of the dollars borrowed by the government were simply poured down unproductive ratholes, a much more logical and moral alternative to tax slavery and/or currency debasement would be for US citizens to simply repudiate the debt and start over with a new currency.
The usual pearl clutchers will have vapors over the thought of US debt repudiation. But it’s becoming much more likely since the collapse of Bretton Woods unshackled the US government from its fiscal, and thereby, Constitutional restraints.
“The claims that Russia armed eastern Ukrainians has never been verified.”
Ever heard of Malaysian flight MH17, shot down over Donbas by a Russian-operated BUK missile?
Ukrainian operated. It also had a huge armament sector, now history.
Remember that in Russia the truth is never acknowledged. This history starts with Prince Potemkin, look up Potemkin Villages. Regarding MH17, read https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/17/three-men-found-guilty-of-murdering-298-people-in-flight-mh17-bombing
…so conveniently. Did not hear of any solid evidence of as much as rebels having Buk at all, however. And then there was some contradicting evidence…
https://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2014/08/on-truth-and-honor-the-mh17-shootdown-and-the-centenary-of-world-war-i-.html
https://ronaldthomaswest.com/2014/07/19/black-boxes-dark-arts-geopolitics/
Ever heard of those beastly Bremen Musicians? It’s a fairy tale.
Your assertions can only be verified by trusting the Russian and Ukrainian governments. I base my decisions on reliable and verifiable sources.
Such as?
Such as the CIA? FBI?
I’d really like to see references on the Ukrainian genocide of ethnic Russians. I’d really like to see independently verifiable references. Do any exist?
The Ukrainians aren’t angels and the Russians aren’t all devils.
In 1990, Howard Baker, US Secretary of State, promised Gorbachev NATO would not expand “one inch” beyond East Germany.
Gorbachev was stupid to believe him
Now it is revealed Yeltsin said privately that he would not mind NATO expansion. A double game.
Now NATO wants to be Pacific, not in the peaceful sense.
NATO successor is named: World Alliance Treaty Organization, WATO
In 1990 beyond East Germany was basicaly USSR lol, whic colapsed few years later
As posted above, Ukraine is in a meat grinder to save the Dollar Reserve.
Russia and China know well the financial collapse underway. Even Asia Times now writes this.
There is a song about that : Rum and Coca-Cola, Andrews Sisters 1944 :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WiayZdPESno
Working for the Yanqui Dollar in 2023 just ain’t what it used to be!
so you’re an American hater- well, you’re on the wrong side of history- America’s best days are to come
The Andrews Sisters were definitely not haters, and could sing!
Ukrainian soldiers should listen to that song again!
I wish you were right, but the US cannot continue to print money without impunity.
we’re seeing it now- high inflation- but that’ll end- I’m old enough to have seen it many times- the feds will just crash the economy, screwing the working class the most- printing all that money and their effort to kill the fossil fuel industry
The fact that people like you and me ‘have seen it many times’ should tip us off that there is something inherently wrong with 1) fractional reserve banking and 2) the progressive belief that a regulatory body of ‘experts’ like the Fed can somehow fix it. One of these times, our financial system is going to disappear below the waves without a trace.
But what’s the alternative? I think they’re trying to develop tools to keep the economy afloat but which of course are influenced by politics. The politics will never go away so any economic system will remain unstable – it’s a matter of keeping the instability to a minimum.
There are more problems than you and I can shake a stick at. First and foremost is the out of control expansion of the Federal government. If not fixed, the entire economy, which means society itself, is going to collapse in a heap. That’s the first alternative.
The second alternative is to repudiate socialism, which means a huge reduction in the scope of government, including the repeal of ‘legal tender’ laws and the repudiation of the national debt. All of this will allow the market to adopt one of more stable systems of money and banking, but will be very painful in the short-term.
It would be nice if there was a third alternative, but there isn’t. The first alternative may play out for a while yet, but our current administration, with their stupid foreign and domestic policies, is burning the candle from both ends.
The US helped fund the new Ukraine leader in 2014 after we did not like a great trade deal offerred by Russia. Much better than the trade deal offered by the EU. The new leader threatened to take over Crimea.
The Russians decided they were not losing their only cold weather naval base and took over Crimea themselves
The US and UK did nothing even after pledging to defend Ukraine in 1994
That gave the false message to Russia that they could march in and stop the Donbas geno cide without US or UK participating.
A big mistake.
But the biggest mistake is Ukraine sending over 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers to their graves with no hope of getting the Donbas region back, which was known in mid-2022. Russia has no interest in the rest of Ukraine and left it alone in the first six months except for military targets.
Russia only later found out taking the Donbas region would be a lot more expensive and deadly than initially assumed. But they will hold that region as mainly Ukrainian solders die FOR NOTHING.
Zelensky doesn’t care
Biden doesn’t care.
But he’s not all there.
Ukrainian families must care as they lose their young men for nothing.
The battle for Donbas is over. Pretending to fight back, and losing, does not change that fact.
The US lost in Vietnam and in Afghanistan. Were the deaths of US service people worth prolonging both wars for so long?
We never fought to win in Vietnam
In Afghanistan we controlled Kabul but the central government did not control many regions of the nation, including the eastern mountains where Bin Laden hid for a while. He quickly escaped to Pakistan, a nation we paid lots of money to find Bin Laden. They took our money. It doesn’t seem like they really looked for him for ten years.
For those who despise the Russian attack on Ukraine, I hope you felt the same way about the US geno cide in Iraq in 2003. A regime change war even though Hussein did not participate in 9/11 and harmed no one before we attacked. It was a disgraceful “Kill those Arabs” year in US history. That was a geno cide committed by the US.
Missing is UN Security Council Resolution 2202 , known as the Minsk Accords. After the 2014 coup this UN resolution for peace, signed by Merkel of Germany and Hollande of France was undermined as BOTH admitted in the press recently. The Nuremberg Tribunal rated Crimes against the Peace above Crimes against Humanity.
Russia used UN Article 51 to deal with this in 2022. Crimea voted to secede from Ukraine, Donbass later.
You state “The usual Zelensky is a god, Putin is the devil, bias”. Where in my article did you find this bias? Stating a fact (that the ICC issued an arrest warrant for Putin) does not mean that I support the ICC or believe that the ICC is correct in its charge against Putin.
so you like Putin? You like his invasion of Ukraine?
You are lying.
I add that charge to my criticism of your article.
Your report starts with these words:
“The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant on 17th March against Vladimir Putin, leader of the world’s largest energy exporter (Russia), accusing him of the war crime of illegally deporting hundreds of children from Ukraine”
You use the clever propaganda technique of stating an unproven criminal charge, that has not yet been defended by the nation charged, and then later diluting your smear with some doubt. You made your strong anti-Putin point at the beginning, but later claim you are personally undecided. That is what I call “alleged libelous journalism”
Here is one example of how you did it:
“And whether any of the global leaders are alleged “criminals” (or not)”
An equivalent statement would be for me to write:
Tilak Doshi is alleged to beat his wife (or not)”
That statement would degrade your reputation whether it is true or not. I could then claim I was “fair and balanced” because I was undecided on whether the claim was true. But just mentioning an unproven claim against you would be a “guilty until proven innocent” approach. That is propaganda and poor journalism.
But your article is bad news mainly for other reasons:
Too long
Too many predictions
(humans consistently fail to make accurate predictions)
Far too many unnecessary facts, unrelated to the conclusion that “The Ukraine war is a watershed moment in history and the world has changed forever.“
And your conclusion is just your speculation.
(It will take years to discover if this war has changed the world permanently)
There are 195 nations in the world
Three are at war Ukraine & US versus Russia
Some others are involved in economic sanctions
Most nations are just spectators.
In conclusion, your article is PhD style claptrap,
to use a scientific term.
Have a nice day
“The usual Zelensky is a god, Putin is the devil, bias”
Most people on this planet agree with statement- other than a few Russian stooges. 🙂
If most people agree, then most people ARE BRAINWASHED
Most people agree that Covid vaccines are safe and effective
That consensus doesn’t convert a belief into the truth.
I thought people here reject the use of a consensus to make a point?
The vaccine may not be truth- but I got 5 Covid shots- and feel terrific. I think nobody should have been forced to get them. I do recall seeing a number of videos and stories about some people who said Covid’s not a problem and they weren’t going to get a shot- then they died of Covid. Suit yourself- it’s your life. So I agree that affair was a mess. Besides, not sure any said anything about truth- it’s more about statistics. About 5 years ago my doctor said I should get a shot for shingles- I didn’t bother to get the shot- then I got shingles and it was extremely painful and I know people with permanent damage from it. And again, everyone here rejects consensus as any kind of proof of anything- I think most people would say everyone should make their own decision but not be forced except in some unique situations- like, maybe, on a navy ship- where if the infection spread, it might reduce the capability of that ship.
Apparently you don’t think Putin wants, simply, to rebuild the old empire- that he didn’t say when he first came to power that the collapse of that empire was the worst thing in the 20th century, that he didn’t say Ukraine isn’t a real country, that, just before the invasion, he and his flunkies all said “we’re not gonna invade Ukraine”- that, he isn’t using some illegal weapons like that bomb – some kind of chemical that will burn everything it hits- can’t remember what it’s called. I could go on all day about Putin. Sure, if you’re a Russian nationalist, you’d like to see your country rebuild its empire. Sure, he restored their economy THANKS to the vast amount of investments from the West- including talented people who taught the Russians how to get oil out of difficult locations, vast investments in their infrastructure, attempts to integrate Russia into world affairs after almost a century of being outcast- yet, you think the west was out to destroy or colonize Russia. You need to do some homework instead of believing whatever bullshit Russia produces- like the Russian televiaion channels that issue hideous, Nazi like bullshit that Zelensky is a Nazi.
But empires fall- like the Roman, Hellenistic, Babylonian, French, the 3rd Reich, the Japanese. That’s life. Too bad. If you say that America has an empire- I’ll say, “thank God”.
If you think the US doesn’t lie than you are truly delusional.
never said that- of course they all lie- the world is always run by thugs- all nations and empires- I bet I’m more cynical than anyone active in WUWT- cynical about all religion, philosopy, government, political parties and much of science – and of course America has an empire- it’s world wide – a dirty job but somebody has to do it 🙂
So you pushing the same “consensus” just oposite, and saying “consensus” must be rejected by default ? LoL you an idiot 🙂
LOL – US holding onto its raw resources, then blaming them low production! Europe doesn’t get it. US hoarding its resources for the one world gov’t because there won’t be any sovereign countries
Russia is such a great happy rich country that half of its educated youth have already fled it.
Rubicon? That was crossed the moment Western governments decided to make a technology profitable that was economically nonviable. Renewable energy, so called.
Putin merely took advantage of the Wests mistake to make a lot of money and throw his weight ariund. Whait little is left of it. He really isn’t looking well.
His Oligarchs wanted the fossil rich Donbas, He wanted the Russian Empire back. His mistake was not to understand that Ukraine was an acquisition too far.
His strategy has been to mount a relentless propaganda camoaign using his well paid proxies in the Western governments and media,
Such as this author.
Green so called energy is being promoted by the exact same means as Russia runs its country. Objectives are cloaked in facile faux morality ‘they were beating up our people’ ‘CO2 is destroying the world’ that Hitler used. There are strong connections between Green organizations and Moscow. To the extent that the Green movement might not survive the next collapse of Russia.
Russia is a mafia run organisation that is the world leader in carefully crafted bullshit, false flag operations and beyond plausible deniability.
In the end Russia has simply blown its cover. The covers have been drawn off how the world energy markets really work, Especially green energy, which is revealed as utterly dependent on fossil fuel to operate. And the fact that massive hikes in fossil prices inevitably lead to massive hikes in inflstion across the board, and interest rate rises endanger banks operting on the limit.
In short Putin has called his own bluff. Gambling that the West’s dependence on his oil gas and fertiliser would stop them interfering in a land grab, he has instead revealed to the West how utterly shit his military is, how corrupt his whole country is, and how stupid it was to rely on green energy or Putins integrity. As well as how deep his fully paid up myrmidons are in Western government, media and academia. And, how ready he is to engage in complete destruction of anyone who is in the way, using any means at his disposal.
No. There is no going back. The feline has escaped coinfinement. The flag has dropped, and the bullshit is beginning to wear thin. And anyone who suggests rapprochement with Russia in the grounds that they are going to win is either suffering brain damage or has a hidden agenda.
It is no coincidence that the greatest per capita donations to Ukraine are coming from nations who were formerly part of the Eastern Bloc. They understand Russia in a way no American can. And they know that if the US pulls out, they are next in line.
Gentlemen, we are at war already. Each side is attempting to damage the other by all means possible. If the West by worrying about slight economic damage were to let Putin win, it would indeed signal to the rest if the world, and especislly China, that the USA really was weak feeble and ripe for takeover by anyone who cared to walk all over its international and indeed national interests.
Instead the West needs to stand firm, and accept the fith columns within its ranks, understand they they are recognisable by their green clothes, and oh so reasonable ‘concern’ and get replacing fossil fuels with nuclear power, not to save the planet from climate change, but to save the West’s prosperity and dependence on inimicable oil producing nations in Asia.
The USA cannot remain isolationist whilst its economy depends on cheap labour in Mexico, S America,SE Asia and China. And its greatest market is in Europe.
The old world order is collapsing, and the prizes will go to the people who react the fastest and most intelligently to the real nature of the change and who see through the carefully crafted bullshit the quickest.
Russia is such a great happy rich country that half of its educated youth have already fled it.
Russia’s population is about 143 million
About 200,000 Russians were said to have left in 2020
200,000 is one tenth of one percent of the Russian population.
Now your statement appears to be very misleading
In 2022, when avoiding the draft would strongly encourage leaving Russia.
The Washington Post claims 500,000 Russians left Russia
That newspaper is strongly anti-Russia and I have never trusted them on any subject. But let’s look at the 500,000 estimate
500,000 is three tenths of one percent of the Russian population
While a claimed 500,000 left Russia in 2022, about three million Ukrainians voluntarily entered Russia after the war began to be safe.
“Putin merely took advantage of the Wests mistake to make a lot of money and throw his weight around. What little is left of it. He really isn’t looking well.”
Putin has been “dying” for many years.
Like the climate crisis has been coming for many years.
Every “fact” about Russia and Ukraine that you don’t like is “propaganda” and every claim you like is the gospel. No bias there!
Straw man. I didnt say half of the population. I said half of the educated youth.
The uneducated are dead or disabled – about 300,000 probably.
We are all dying. The pictures of the real Putin show he is puffy, has lost a lot of weight and shakes. The two body doubles look OK though.
Every “fact” about Russia and Ukraine that you don’t like is “propaganda” and every claim you like is the gospel. No bias there!
The real fact is that Putuns vivctory hinges on one thung – withdrawal of support for Ukraine by the west. Hence the amarda of Putins Pups infesting the blogosphere pushing the Russian propaganda line.
Have you stopped to think what a Putin victory would mean for Europe? For rhe USA?
So far Putin has lost about half of the invaded territory and after a year and another 300,000 conscripts still cannot take Bakhmut.
He will not win as long as arms flow into Ukraine.
That is why comments here dismissive of his propaganda are being marked down. The St Petersburg trolls have been told what to do.
But you know all this, don’t you.
nailed it again! I wonder what Greene’s name really is? Ivan? Vladimir? Nikita? Probably a Russian bot.
Putin looked fine, healthy, alert, while meeting Xi
Had no trouble climbing any stairs, nor was sniffling the hair of women, and squeezing young girls
They had a tête-à-tête lasting 4 hours
Are you nine years old, or do you hire a nine-year-old to write your character attacks?
closer to 90 than 9
besides, you write some aggressive comments- so if you can hand it out you should be able to take it like a man 🙂
The uneducated are dead or disabled – about 300,000 probably.
300,000 is a complete FABRICATION
The real number is about one fifth of Ukrainians killed
Probably from100,000 to 150.000 Ukrainians killed
That would make Russian deaths at 20,000 to 30.000
Putin long age had the only victory he intended: Stopping the geno cide in the Donbas region by annexing the region. The battle for Donbas is over. Ukrainian soldiers are dying in vain. And that is a tragedy. Where are any real leaders in the world to broker a peace deal and stop the carnage? Bidet is not one — he is encouraging the carnage with Ukrainian men as cannon fodder. That is evil behavior.
“200,000 is one tenth of one percent of the Russian population.”
Mostly IT people and other highly educated types- mostly young men who will no longer be working for the Russian economy- the best and brightest, while the dim bulbs sing patriotic songs and get slaughtered in Ukraine. Last I heard it was more like a million or more. But of course you’d believe whatever number Putin tells you, your beloved Putin, who has so much in common with Hitler.
Why don’t you give us details of Russian emigrants in 2022, or do you just speculate with “the last I heard”?
Did Americans successfully avoid the Vietnam war?
According to a 1978 book by former members of President Gerald Ford’s Clemency Board, 210,000 Americans were accused of draft offenses and 30,000 left the country.
The best and brightest tend to know English. And how to use internet. So… uhhh… extremely unlikely. What is your source, again?
nailed it!
It’s a war of attrition by proxy. Just enough to keep them going
what all Russian and Chinese leaders say- do you go to their web sites to get your message for the day?
https://sonar21.com/
Larry Johnson, CIA veteran , covers this. Not for faint hearted.
How do you know what they say? Do you go to their web sites to get your message for the day? :]
From Wiki ICC : Forty-one additional states[53] have neither signed nor acceded to the Rome Statute. Some of them, including China and India, are critical of the Court.[64][65] Ukraine, a non-ratifying signatory, has accepted the Court’s jurisdiction for a period starting in 2013.[66]
…
No-one was prosecuted for the Ukraine Maidan violent ousting of a democratically elected President in 2014. No-one was prosecuted for the lies that led to the Iraq invasion.
The Article here never mentions the key problem – NATO expansion since 1990.
Even the usually NATO-aligned Asia Times, not pro-Russia nor pro-China, is clear :
US bank trouble heralds end of dollar reserve system
https://asiatimes.com/2023/03/us-bank-trouble-heralds-end-of-dollar-reserve-system/
This has been looming since the 2008 crash and bailout. This, as China says, is something seen only once in 100 years, exactly what Russia’s EAEU economist Glazyev often writes.
The collapse of the post 1990 neo-liberal transatlantic financial system is what has driven NATO to cross the Rubicon. Ukraine means Borderland.
Russia announced tactical nuclear weapons will be soon stored in Belarus, a direct result of US tactical nuclear weapons stored in Germany, Belgium, Italy. There are desperate Washington factions prepared to use them, those who already destroyed the NordStream pipelines.
And German foreign policy, Green, is mum on Britain’s Depleted Uranium munitions for Ukraine.
Ukraine’s famous black earth farmland could soon be deemed unsafe for agriculture! I wonder what Monsanto et. al , who are looting the sector will say about that.
“No-one was prosecuted for the Ukraine Maidan violent ousting of a democratically elected President in 2014.”
Millions of Ukrainians protested during the Maidan incident. Gonna put them all in jail? It was a popular uprising against an administration which according to some was not as legitimate as you think.
Several hundred were killed/“disappeared” in Kiev, during demonstrations , which lasted several months,
Anatomy of a Coup: How CIA Front Laid Foundations for Ukraine War
https://kitklarenberg.substack.com/p/anatomy-of-a-coup-how-cia-front-laid
NordStream was most likely blown up by the Poles. https://johnhelmer.org/the-bornholm-blow-up-repeats-the-bornholm-bash-poland-attacks-germany-and-blames-russia/
I’d congratulate the Circus World on having one committed vassal worth a damn at last, but it looks like they are screwing up even this. Sikorski is still supported by the suzerain despite jumping the gun ahead of the Narrative, being a rat and being an obvious candidate to be served with “my wife’s son” meme.
Do you the CIA wants you to believe that. 😉
It just makes sense.Using pawns to not get implicated. Demand of commitment (since Poland gets to hold a big chunk of EU by the throat as a result).Also, CIA would probably find a way to screw it up… again. Remember “The Finders”? And all the clumsy false flags and “moderate rebels” after. Hence, an important operation in neutral waters could be delegated to an interested and less dysfunctional party.
Helmer poked holes in Seymour Hersh’s revelation. And Sikorski became British, BoJo getting him the invite. Russia initially said Britain and Poland. The action required US methods. The Norwegian angle is explosive.
Either way it was a NATO job, and the Yacht story is the best they can do,
Precedent : Britain’s Lawrence of Arabia destroying the Berlin to Baghdad Railway.
From the article: “During their meeting in Moscow this week, Presidents Putin and Xi referred to each other as “dear friend”, promised economic cooperation, condemned the West and described their mutual relations as the best they have ever been.”
Nothing new here. They have been doing this for years.
Move along, nothing to see here!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aKnX5wci404&t=48s
Sure looks like Bakhmut!
what’s your actual Russian name? Vladimir Ivan Nikita Bonbon?
Bakhmut is sheer hell on earth.
Understanding the Scale and Brutality and the Global Stakes of the War in Ukraine
https://sonar21.com/understanding-the-scale-and-brutality-of-the-war-in-ukraine/
Larry Johnson, CIA veteran , covers this. All joking aside, anyone caught up in this brutal trap, to “save the dollar”, deserves pity.
From the article: “On the same day, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced $350 million in new US military aid to Ukraine (in addition to an estimated $196 billion provided to Ukraine from January to November 2022″
A lot of that $196 billion is humanitarian aid, not military aid.
Check US Sec. Austin’s Raytheon bottom line.
Right now the US is paying all Kiev’s social expenses. The economy is utterly ruined, on life-support. World Bank Report :
Updated Ukraine Recovery and Reconstruction Needs Assessment
https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2023/03/23/updated-ukraine-recovery-and-reconstruction-needs-assessment
…
estimates that the cost of reconstruction and recovery in Ukraine has grown to US $411 billion (equivalent of €383 billion).
…
The US will of course send the bill to the EU – Brussels will try to send that to the people.
Just imagine what France, already burning over reforms will do with that bill!
no, the money will be Russian money they stupidly put into western banks
Stolen money? That has vanished, and the bill will still be sent.
Pretty dumb for any country to trust western banks, including western countries.
Ask Bern about Credit Suisse….
I think those numbers are vastly exagerated. Much of it is for the future rebuilding of the country- and hopefully much of the funds to rebuild it will come from the Russian funds taken from the banks that the Russians ignorantly put that wealth into, thinking those nations wouldn’t mind a Russian invasion enough to do anything about it.
From the article: “Since February 2022, multiple sanctions have been applied on Russian individuals and institutions, with a focus on the country’s main export sectors, in particular oil and gas. The all-out economic warfare launched on Russia was meant to devastate the Russian economy, collapse the ruble and possibly lead to regime change with the ouster of President Putin.”
Well, the focus is really on trying to force Putin to stop murdering innocent Ukrainians. The sanctions are meant to cause pain. And it’s not all-out economic warfare. The U.S. has not sanctioned the Chicoms yet. If Trump is elected, that’s coming.
It looks like our author is a supporter of Putin and mass murder.
None are so blind as those who will not see.
When you don’t have an argument, you resort to ad hominem attacks as follows: “author is a supporter of Putin and mass murder”. Shoot the messenger when you don’t like the message.
when the message seems to blame the West- then it’s not an ad hominem- which is more about attacking the individual’s personality, characteristics, qualifications, etc.
it certainly seems you are blind to the Russian aggression and its long history of nasty behavior which is why most East Europeans hate Russia and they begged to be let into the EU and NATO
nailed it!
It looks like our author is a supporter of Putin and mass murder.
It seems like YOU supported the mass murders of 11,000 Ukrainian civilians from 2014 to 2022, by the Ukrainian military, hypocrite.
From the article: “Russia replaced revenues lost from its reduced oil and gas exports to Europe with a pivot to China, India and other countries which did not participate in the sanctions.”
Countries which condone the mass murder of innocent Ukrainian people.
What happened to India? Greed seems to have overcome morals.
Be careful who you side with, India. You may get a knife in the back one of these days from your buddy, Xi.
Do you realise what that colonial, patronizing moral admonishment sounds like to the vast majority of humankind? Keep at it – for all the world to see.
Maybe travel more.
is that why so many millions of people all over the world wish they could move to America and the EU? How many beg to get into China and Russia?
China did build the Great Wall to keep out barbarians hundreds of years ago.
The US is right now building a Great Wall along the South to keep out refugees.
Israel has already got a Great Wall.
Germany’s Great Wall fell without a shot fired.
NATO wants a Great Wall , a bit further East, in Borderland.
Rome’s Great Wall, Limes, ran right through Europe.
The Multipolar World now in motion is not about Walls.
Maybe there are more “handouts” in the US and EU than in Russia and China — incentives for where to go.
The EU was the 2nd largest buyer of Russian fossil fuels (after China) during 24 Feb 2022 to 26 Feb 2023. Germany was a larger importer of Russian fossil fuels than India during this period.
The EU is not one nation
The EU is 27 nations
The EU is not the second largest buyer
Germany is temporarily the second largest buyer.
The EU is 27 different buyers combined.
And they are generally replacing Russian energy products as fast as possible.
The EU’s bans and price caps have resulted in a decline of daily fossil fuel revenues from the bloc of nearly 85%, falling from their March 2022 peak of $774 million per day to $119 million as of February 22nd, 2023.
China has been the top buyer of Russian fossil fuels since the start of the invasion. Russia’s neighbor and informal ally has primarily imported crude oil, which has made up more than 80% of its imports totaling more than $55 billion since the start of the invasion.
The Countries Buying Russian Fossil Fuels Since the Invasion (visualcapitalist.com)
The EU’s largest economy, Germany, is the second-largest importer of Russian fossil fuels, largely due to its natural gas imports worth more than $12 billion alone. Germany is finding substitues fr Russian energy as fast as they can.
Let’s be honest here Tom, I don’t think America has any lessons to give about morality, and as for greed…(cough)…
well, at least Russia’s sales of oil and gas to India and China isn’t nearly as profitable as sales to the EU
How profitable are the sales to China and India versus sales to the EU>
Any data, or just shooting from the hip again?
How much discount does India get on Russian oil?
In percentage terms, the discount varied between 0.6 per cent and almost 14 per cent. Russian crude accounted for close to 19 per cent of India’s oil imports in April-December totaling 173.93 million tonnes, or 1.27 billion barrels.
As per the analysis, cheaper Russian oil lowered the average landed price of imported crude for India — the world’s third-largest consumer of crude oil — by just about $2 per barrel during the nine-month period. The average landed price of imported crude for April-December was $99.2 per barrel
do your own homework, Ivan Ivanovich Greene- since you are SO smart 🙂
From the article: “Moscow and Beijing are working on the creation of an international reserve currency and an integrated inter-bank payments system based on a commodity-linked basket of BRICS currencies to counter Western financial sanctions.”
Yes, they have been working on that for years. It doesn’t seem to have done them much good. They are no closer now than they were.
Check Asia Times, just for example, above – the Dollar Reserve is over.
You believe everything you read?
Even a NATO mouthpiece like that outlet has to admit it.
The Dollar Reserve since 1971 is finished. That leaves the US with a huge problem
China is really hoping Russia collapses so it can get back all that land Russia stole from China in “outer Manchuria”. I’ve seen a recent, new map of that region published by the Chinese government which uses only the original Chinese names for the region, the cities/towns, mountains, etc. including Vladivostok.
Pulling rabbits out of hats is a good party trick.
From the article: “For Europe, the loss of cheap Russian gas — the basis of Germany’s Wirtschaftswunder (post-war economic miracle) — is irreversible even if the sabotaged Nordstream pipelines can be repaired. The damage to the mutual trust necessary for long-term trade between Russia and its European neighbors will not be so easily mended. Europe will undergo continued energy demand destruction, leading to de-industrialization, steep falls in living standards and social strife.”
The energy demand destruction is not because of Putin’s gas cutoff, it is because Europe has stupid politicians who refuse to develop their own natural resources and thought it was a good idea to put their fate in the hands of a murderous dictator.
Now Europe is paying the price of electing stupid, clueless CO2-phobe politicians.
NATO destroyed NordStream gas pipelines in a fit of irrational rage.
Free Markets!
This will not go away, even if NYT, DieZeit all say a yacht full of nasties did it.
not a fit of rage- a carefully thought out strategic, military act- a brilliant act, in my opinion- ended the subject of all that gas going to Europe- boom!
An attack on Germany, a major ally. International industrial terrorism means NATO is loosing it.
No country is now safe.
Zorzin supports international pipeline sabotage.
Because there are no crimes when the “good guys” commit them
all is fair in love and war
blowing up a pipeline is nicer than bombing hospitals, schools, electric power for common folks
Love the smell of Napalm in the morning?
nailed it!
From the article: “Yet, as a federal system, the US boasts many constituent states that fiercely guard their domestic industries that include coal, oil and gas.”
Yes, that’s one of the beauties of the system of government in the United States. Individual States can shield one from an overreaching Federal government. Like when the federal government was trying to get everyone locked down during the Wuhan virus pandemic. In my State, there were no lockdowns and no mask mandates. We did just fine. We had a Republican governor and a majority Republican House and Senate. Still do. Thank God.
“We”? 1 million US dead from COVID sounds fine?
Keep at it for all the world to see.
‘Individual States can shield one from an overreaching Federal government.’
That was the promise / benefit of Federalism. If only we could get the media, academia and a significant part of the American electorate to take a trip down to “E-deck” – I hear there’s a lot of water coming in.
From the article: “while India’s “non-aligned” role”
I don’t think so. India is financing the mass murder of innocent Ukrainians when they buy Putin’s oil and gas. India *is* aligned. Aligned with some very bad characters: the Cold-blooded Mass Murderers, Putin and Xi.
However, India and China are at loggerheads over some land high in the mountains. India wants cheap fuel and will buy it from the devil but it’s a bit fearful of China. And, at least it’s a democracy of sorts.
From the article: “The Ukraine war is a watershed moment in history and the world has changed forever.”
Trump will change it back. Back to the way it was when he was president.
Trump has lots of good ideas about how to make this watershed moment a benefit to the United States.
All it takes is good leadership on the U.S. side to turn things completely around. Trump did it once. Trump can do it again. The enemies of freedom, both foreign and domestic, do not want Trump back in office. They don’t like it when he foils their evil plans.
Trump had a chance and did not, could not, deliver. Remember Russiagate?
He could not take on Wall Street and break up the banks as he campaigned to do – Glass Steagall.
Whether the US actually does have an election is the question.
Still, SVB tremors of a massive financial crash could be a real opportunity.
I think DeSantis will get the nomination, not Trump. I prefer to see younger people- Trump and Biden are just too old. I’d love to see a battle for the job by 2 middle aged white men. 🙂
Trump lost my vote due to his needless, and false, attacks on DeSantis. He should be constantly attacking Biden, not other republicans he thinks are a threat to his nomination.
I like DeSantis and not just because I’m also Italian American. 🙂 I loved it when he flew some illegals to Martha’s Vineyard. I thought that was brilliant. As for why so many stick with Trump, see what Bill Maher says which I think is insightful. I sort of like Trump in some ways- that is some of his policies- but not a fan of his personality. During the fires in CA, Trump said he supports more and better forestry. The only politican to say that- yet he got slammed for that by many.
What Liberals Don’t Understand About Ultra-MAGA Voters | Real Time with Bill Maher
The Gateway Pundit is reporting that DeSantis’s donors are telling him not to run against Trump this time. Wait until 2028. The message seems to be that Trump is too popular with the electorate.
Well, when Obama decided to run- almost all top Dems told him to back off- he had only been a Senator for one term- but he ran and won. I think DeSantis knows that story and I think he’ll run and hopefully win. Then we’ll see those big spaghetti dinners in the White House. 🙂
Trump left the nation in a mess in 2020 and had the slowest average real GDP growth of any President over his four years (1%) since Herbert Hoover.
You lost me there Richard
I don’t fault a political neophyte for not being able to persevere against the allied forces of America’s deep state and progressive institutions. We’ll see how the primaries go, but right now he’s the only viable candidate with a record of trying – and if he wins, he’ll be loaded for bear.
From the article: “It is doubtful whether any such self-aware thought crossed the minds of policy makers in the Biden administration when they decided to sanction Russia.”
That’s true, that Biden is clueless, but Putin needed to be sanctioned anyway. More sanctions should be imposed, and sanctions should be imposed on those who buy Russian oil and gas. They are all facilitating the mass murder of innocent Ukrainian civilians.
Of course, it would help if the U.S. were producing enough oil and gas to offset Russian oil and gas, and give those nations an alternative. If Trump is elected, that will happen.
nailed it!
US sanctions on China could cause a US depression.
ASd colapse China economy too, its street in two ways flow lol
Sorry for monoplizing the conversation. I get really irritated when I see people, who should know better, making excuses for murderous dictators.
What, like Zelensky?
it’s David vs. Goliath and David will win!
“David: Zelensky has ALREADY LOST but will keep fighting so he does not have to admit the truth.
where do you buy your LSD? 🙂
A NAFO Fella?
never heard of it until now- looked it up- no, not a member- I just watch countless YouTube videos and read about the war in many sources- concluding it’s nothing but raw imperialism so Putin can go down in history as Putin the Great- of course Zelensky and the Ukrainians are no angels either but they don’t want to be part of the “Russkiy Mir”- they want to be part of the EU and NATO to be protected from Russia
Tom, seems you and Richard have a lot to talk about!
You are both articulate, smarts fellows, yet disagree — which should ipso facto give you pause, and motivate humility. Not every fight is between a cowboy in a white hat and another in a black hat.
As for the substance of your string of posts, Who does not have blood on his hands?
me too!
“It is doubtful whether any such self-aware thought crossed the minds of policy makers in the Biden administration when they decided to sanction Russia.”
As Seymour Hersh puts it, Wynkin, Blynkin and Nod (go figure, geniuses) may have high IQ’s but they are driving the US to disaster. Their Straussian ideology is to lie, the bigger the better Then lie about the lie.
Anyone here know the kids poem? Used to put he kid to sleep, and D.C. is sleepwalking to nuclear hell.
This is an excellent summary.
The Russia haters in the Defense/State/Intel troika, who easily manipulate in-the-basement, demented Biden, with 3 x 5 cards and teleprompter, likely had no idea, when they decided to use Ukraine as a proxy to strategically weaken Russia, and
1) impose long-planned sanctions scenarios,
2) confiscate Russia’s gold and currency reserves, and
3) supply money and weapons into a black hole, “for as long as it takes.”
Then it turned out,
1) the ruble did not collapse,
2) the Russian GDP decreased only 2.1% in 2022, will grow 0.3% in 2023, and 2.1% in 2024, per IMF
3) Russian had a record trade surplus in 2022, i.e., reduced imports from Europe, etc, increased exports to BRICS+
4) Russia rebuilt its gold and currency reserves
5) a major impetus to migrate from the untrustworthy fiat dollar to more reliable currencies
6) significant additional integration of the Chinese and Russian economies, and BRICS expansion, etc.
At this point, the Troika is gnashing its teeth, slapping its forehead, etc., regarding how big it miscalculated again. The castle of hate, confrontation and manipulation is crumbling
Most important is that Ukrainian men are dying in vain
“In the event, the ruble rapidly fell to half its value after the invasion in February. But by June the ruble was at its strongest in more than seven years — earning it the distinction of being the best-performing currency in the world.”
The ruble got stronger for other reasons according to reports I’ve seen and not for being “best performing”. It’s now tightly under the control of the Russian government. I’m no economist so I can’t explain it.
The bumbling transatlantic incompetent idiots cannot explain it either.
QED.
Try idiot to cash out USD from Russian banks 😀
Or buy USD at official rate LoL
In USSR 1 USD was 0.8 RUB,the only problem was that YOU CANT BUY USD only SELL, becouse you CANT buy anythink with USD in USSR.
Now go ant take 1 million USD form Russian bank, or try to buy with RUB, for buying stuff outside Russia. Good luck with that.
PS. Central bank now can at any time take your USD from bank for use, and return to you converted RUB at “official rate”, or you can choice to WHAIT when USD will be available, maybe 😀
At this point RATE in Russia doeasnt metter. What you will do with USD?
That’s simply wrong.
There were foreign currency shops. https://wysotsky.com/1033.htm?1850
And black market.
They don’t store “your USD”. Just numbers in database of loans.
Also, USD does still exist as physical money. Which mattered until recently.
Fairly recently, a lot. Let’s see. A currency can be used
For example, gold was removed from (1) long ago, yet it’s still big in two other niches. Not so long ago, USD was reasonably strong and used out of its legitimate habitat in all 3 ways. Mapping price to USD was a common practice in Russia (under euphemism “conditional unit” — virtual currency pegged to dollar 1:1). Because a lot of stuff is purchased in SE Asia, and this used to mean: for dollars.
Lately it became obviously unreliable. Once ineligible as a medium of saving, existing dollar savings are to be converted ASAP (presumably to precious metals).
Though in Russia it became much less attractive once Sberbank offered “metal accounts”: being a virtual goldbug is only slightly more risky financially than being a real goldbug, but less risky physically, a lot more convenient (you can handle these from a smartphone), and still more reliable than anything else.
Of course, if a currency is not good for saving, it’s also much less attractive for transactions that do not have natural restrictions or preferences for medium (such as black market, etc), as it needs to be exchanged soon-ish.
There was constant demand for USD when de-facto Dollar Zone was vast, and demand for one use was feeding demand for others. But when the relevant market shrinks and the currency is dumped (for whatever reason), it’s a run.
“the transition to a multipolar world beyond the American-dominated Bretton Woods system based on the US dollar as the international reserve currency”
Hell no to any such transition- the world is better off with America running things than any hypothetical multipolar world- mostly meaning China.
“The all-out economic warfare launched on Russia was meant to devastate the Russian economy, collapse the ruble and possibly lead to regime change with the ouster of President Putin.”
Sounds like a great plan to me!
To quote the Bard – the Best Laid Plans of Mice and Men go oft Awry.
Or to quote Clausowitz – no battle plan survives the first encounter.
In other words sheer legendary imperial incompetence.
The Peter Principle applies – the transatlantic bumbling idiots were all promoted to their level of incompetence.
“In pointed remarks to the press with Mr. Blinken sitting at her side, South African Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor said that she objected to “patronizing bullying” coming from the West”
I guess she prefers to have Proghozin’s mercenaries shooting their way around Africa, which it’s trying to do in the interest of Russian oligarchs. Meanwhile, South Africa is planning a military exercise with Russia and others. Now that Africans kicked out western imperialists they welcome Chinese and Russian imperialists- to the secondary benefit of African oligarch wannabees. But eventually Africans will kick them out too.
Sounds like a paean for Le Petit, Macron, who is loosing everything?
“The US, well-endowed with energy and other natural resources, will gain comparative advantage in manufacturing over a vassalized Europe.”
Better than becomming vassalized to Russia. So how the hell did Forbes become a lefty rag?
The EU has become a US vassal – even major press, Stern, says it :
Big Brother Joe and little brother Olaf.
And there was I thinking the Trolls and Elves were at the Baltics!
“Europe will undergo continued energy demand destruction, leading to de-industrialization, steep falls in living standards and social strife.”
All it needs to do is fall in love with fossil fuels, again- to save itself.
Molecules of Freedom, US LNG at 6 time the Russian price?
For connoisseurs only!
Main vital point I think was missed in the article was: China is the world’s largest manufacturer. It has more manufacturing capacity than the US and EU put together, by Western analysis based on purchasing power parity.
China’s strategic issue has always been its need to import energy, food, metals and other commodities. That issue is now resolved.
US manufacturing being “more attractive” due to lower energy prices vs. Europe does not mean US manufacturing is “more attractive” than manufacturing in China – which is what matters. BASF is ramping down operations in Europe even as it opens a new $10B plant in China; any increase of BASF operations in the EU is small compared to BASF ramp of operations in China.
That is the pattern most likely to occur and structurally lower energy prices in India and China will accelerate the already rapidly increasing gap between BRICS gdp and G7 GDP as percentage of world GDP:
One of the main reasons Western companies are moving production to China is because energy is much cheaper there and China is not fixated on Net Zero rubbish like much of the West. In the UK industrial demand for electricity has declined by 20% since 2000 as industry has been outsourced to China.
“It is doubtful whether any such self-aware thought crossed the minds of policy makers in the Biden administration when they decided to sanction Russia.”
Amazing that he thinks everything is the fault of America- after all, those nice Russians are just trying to get back their empire- no reason to punish them. America, the evil empire. If it wasn’t for America all Europeans including Russians would now be speaking German- or Russian- having saved that continent 3 times in 2 World Was and the Cold War. And if it wasn’t for the green fascists, the European economies would be much stronger- and Russia wouldn’t have been able to feel confident enough to start a major war- killing thousands and destroying cities- bombing hospitals, schools, everything to get their way with a people who recall the Holodomor. Maybe more people should recall it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor
As the kids learn in Kiev we are all Ukrainian. Even Jesus was born in Galicia, and Pharoah Mena.
This is actually in Kiev school textbooks.
That is what the millions of Ukrainian refugees actually learnt. Just imagine the trouble at schools who teach. This makes CO2 pale in comparison!
Imagine if the US returned to energy independence, stopped the flow of money into ‘renewables’, secured the boarder, worked to return manufacturing onshore, actually addressed the expense of health care.
None of that can possibly work without addressing the imploding financial system, starting with Glass-Steagall, breaking up the banks. The US would immediately find friends where former adversaries were.
The US was last energy independent in the 1940s
Energy independence means the US does not importa energy from any other nation.
That last happened in the 1940s.
It is good that we import mainly from Mexico and Canada
But Canada is become Cubanada
And Mexico has a very high crime rate
Better not to import from any other nation
Especially uranium, where 90% is imported.
It’s impossible to list all the ways the Biden regime had fugged up international relations. In pursuing an agreement with Iran we’ve messed up relations with everyone else in the Middle East. Nations which we once were allied with us against Iran are now allied against us.
China is not a rival, it’s our opponent in new cold war (“new” meaning 3 decades) that many barely recognize. Seems Joe wants an agreement with China on fighting climate change. He’s unconcerned about Chinese imperialism and militarism, he wants a symbolic (worthless) agreement to cement his legacy.
And Europe? I remain convinced our involvement in Ukraine is largely to distract from Biden’s agenda and his fug ups.
I enjoyed The Odessa File and Cardinal in the Kremlin. Where does that place me on the “I love Putin” or “I love Ukraine” scale?
In the DMZ?
H/T to Larry Johnson : You Have Witnessed History Today in Moscow and It Is Consequential
https://sonar21.com/you-have-witnessed-history-today-in-moscow-and-it-is-consequential/
Do not mess with sleeping Bears!
Well, it rolls more toward this: https://imgur.com/gallery/DojNEYN
Need someone to be represented by the polar bears (now that they are abundant), too. But hey, maybe Scandinavia will snap.
In the event, the ruble rapidly fell to half its value after the invasion in February. But by June the ruble was at its strongest in more than seven years — earning it the distinction of being the best-performing currency in the world. In January this year, Reuters reported that Russia posted a record current account surplus of $227 billion in 2022, up 86% from 2021. Russian output will expand 0.3% this year (and 2.1% next year), defying earlier predictions according to the IMF which upgraded its January 30th forecast from the previous October forecast of a 2.3% contraction. Russia, according to the IMF, will perform better than Germany or the United Kingdom this year.
russia has the dutch disease. curse of Oil production.
then again the USA has it too
I am aware of exactly 2 (two) basic meanings:
While the latter did successfully kill the former and wear its skin, it was never able to become functional law — mainly because:
I recommend Moldbug for further reading, as readily available and clear:
If you don’t want to use Google Books he links, they all are on archive.org. Specifically the book by de Vattel — The law of nations : or, Principles of the law of nature, applied to the conduct and affairs of nations and sovereigns.
The energy/economic/market outcome of the Ukraine/Russian war is clear but the political question Why? and Why now? looms large. Why have China and Russia decided to hunker down together seeking to build geographic buffers and using military aggression to get it done? Is the new Eastern economic sphere an unexpected outcome of the war or was the war the step taken by Putin to sever the West to protect himself an build something new? The long term goal appears to establish a sphere of global economic development apart from the West….again the question is why now? Putin decisively, ( strategically?) severed his Western energy market and jettisoned many of his Oligarch’s living in the west and with ties to the West when he invaded Ukraine. Putin is neither stupid nor crazy. I don’t have the answers. But doing the analysis and seeking answers will tell us a far more about the world we live in than the narrative we are expected to consume. I am pretty sure that a sober analysis is very difficult to find in our global media. If a sober analysis is being published, please point me in the direction.
It is impossible to condone what Putin has done in the Ukraine.. this doesn’t mean we have nothing to learn from him. I think we have to think all around and beyond the old categories to see the new categories emerging in the world
The only thing that I have read that sheds any light at all on the “why” is question is Putin’s January Address to the WEF in 2021. His first since 20009…. which is clearly a read between the lines affair.
https://www.russia-briefing.com/news/russian-president-putin-s-speech-at-the-world-economic-forum-complete-english-translation.html/
Putin’s characterization of fascism in his early rhetoric prior and after the invasion is very confusing. The classic connotation is 20th c. nationalistic/militaristic fascism and the neo-fascism that followed and is common on the fringe around the world. Maybe this sort of 20th c neo-fashion was more than fringe in the Ukraine…..? but the rest of the west isn’t fascist by any stretch of the 20th c definition. So is Putin using the term with an entirely new connotation or am I mindlessly trying to parse empty Russian propaganda?
If the Biden Administration had been smart, they would have encouraged development of gas fracking technology and the export of liquefied natural gas to Europe. Then, when the war broke out in Ukraine, the Europeans would not have been afraid of losing Russian gas, because they could use American LNG, and they could have maintained strong sanctions against Russia.
Due to America’s energy weakness under the Biden regime, Europe (particularly Germany, after shutting down nuclear plants to build windmills) is left with two options: beg the Russians for gas, or pray for a mild winter.
How has the home of Mercedes-Benz and BMW, and the industrial powerhouse of the 1980’s that absorbed “broke” East Germany in the 1990’s with ease, been reduced to such a pitiful state? How could a country north of the 45th parallel with frequent cloudy weather believe that solar panels could power their industry?
Much of the commentary here is about what Biden did and didn’t do. Essentially, what he did do likely had little impact on global oil prices. His release of strategic oil reserves happened both before and after Russia invaded Ukraine in Feb 2022. The release in Oct 21,2021 had no impact on oil prices. If you remember, Biden went after the Saudi prince in the first two weeks of his presidency on the Khashoggi murder putting the onus squarely on the Prince and called for the Prince be brought to justice. Very similarly, to Obama’s early presidency, OPEC tightened supply and drove up prices even during a global recession. . On April 7th 2022, the Khashoggi murder case was transferred from Turkey to Saudi Arabia without a word from the White House. On April 11,2022 Biden goes to Saudi Arabia and hangs out with he Prince. The Prince does not commit to increasing OPEC output but later in the summer OPEC output does increase and oil prices level off. This is also at the same time reports that Russian Oil was making it’s way to India and through out the East with 2nd sales around the world. Which was more potent to drop oil prices…. Biden’s intervention with the Saudi Prince and establishing permanent silence on the Khashoggi case or the Transition of Russia’s Hydrocarbon market and supply from West to East and everywhere else and side ways? Fun stuff eh?
BTW, the last word on the Khashoggi case was in Oct 2022 when the Prince was granted immunity based on his royal status. So much for supply and demand in the global energy market place.