Essay by Eric Worrall
Climate scientists have acted to ensure the world receives their narrative as quickly as possible, whenever a severe weather event strikes.
‘I am an optimistic person’: the scientist who studies climate catastrophes
Friederike Otto, a member of the world’s only rapid reaction force of climate scientists, on looking into the apocalypse of extreme weather
Sandra Laville Environment correspondent
Fri 30 Dec 2022 01.30 AEDT…
Otto, known as Fredi, and a small team of researchers are the world’s only rapid reaction force of climate scientists. They target extreme weather across the world almost as it happens, reach out to local people on the ground, and carry out deep, rigorous statistical analysis, which is transforming our understanding of how human-caused global heating is affecting the planet and our lives.
Until now, scientists have had to be equivocal about whether a single weather event is linked to global heating. Otto’s work makes the connection between the string of disasters the world is suffering and global heating, much clearer. Her work was recognised internationally in 2021 when she was named one of Time magazine’s 100 most influential people.
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The journey from the creation of the World Weather Attribution unit to its current iteration, began with a paper Otto and Oldenborgh wrote on a heatwave in Russia in 2010. It was a classical academic paper, peer reviewed and published long after the event.
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This last study drew her up short by the starkness of its findings. “One of the biggest scientific surprises for me this year was the floods in Nigeria because there was such a huge climate change impact,” said Otto. “They were made 80 times more likely as a result of climate change. That makes me think: ‘Oh wow, there is really a lot that we don’t understand in Africa’.”
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Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/dec/29/i-am-an-optimistic-person-the-scientist-who-studies-climate-catastrophes
Obviously it is critically important to climate science that attribution studies align with news cycles. Otto has been very successful in attracting attention, her World Weather Attribution team made Time Magazine’s top 100 most influential people in 2021.
Another example of desperation. After a bit they will run out of ‘extremes’. And fade away. The globe is not‘heating’.
Some decent news. XR is taking a break.
https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/extinction-rebellion-uk-to-halt-disruptive-protests-2971662
The Otto cycle:
Suck (in your cheeks)
Squeeze nonsense out of the data
Bang out a press release
Blow it around the compliant media.
One for a JOSH cartoon?
The “Attribution” or “Blame Game” has been around for several years now. I saw a few of the “Attributions” in play re the Calgary flood of 2013 where it was compared to one event of something and climate change was blamed. The same female researcher did the blame game thing on Arctic Ocean ice. Somewhere (maybe I have a copy) someone did an article to justify it as a “part of science”. I do not recall if it was in the UN.
Twice the punch.
saying every weather event is the result of co2 explains nothing
Saying a weather event is the result of CO2 is not supported by the science.
And the Rapid Reaction Force doesn’t have the evidence, either. They are blowing smoke. They live in a world of unsubstantiated assumptions and assertions. Human-caused Climate change started out as speculation and it hasn’t gotten any further since. There is no evidence human-derived CO2, or any CO2, derived from any source, is causing the Earth’s weather to do anything it otherwise would not do.
No evidence. None.
“80 times more likely as a result of climate change” how can that ever be quantified?
80 times more likely than what? In the ”Prolonged Siberian heat of 2020 almost impossible without human influence” paper she says they used observation and MODELS to ”estimate” the 2020 heat to be a ”once in 130 years” event in the absence of human influence but then go on to use MODELS to say it is now ”500 times more likely”. Once you start with a presumption that you can model the climate, you can do anything you like.So it’s easy to ”quantify” that if you don’t have to VERIFY it.
Excellent comment, Mike.
I thought it was 81.5 times.
Otto, known as Fredi, and a small team of researchers are the world’s only rapid reaction force of climate scientists. They target extreme weather across the world almost as it happens, reach out to local people on the ground,….
LOL 🙂
The fact that they use “attribution” in their name instead of “explanation” suggests that they’ve already decided that every event is caused by climate change, or whatever it’s called this week.
Including appendicitis.
Association of Appendicitis Incidence With Warmer Weather Independent of Season | Emergency Medicine | JAMA Network Open | JAMA Network
‘Oh wow, there is really a lot that we don’t understand (in Africa’.)”
This is the key line for me. They say it. They write it. They report it. But it never sinks in. They go on as if they understand everything and expect the rest of the world to believe they know what they are talking about.
“there really is a lot we don’t know”
That’s the key line for me, too.
There’s a lot more she doesn’t understand, too.
Delusional as well.
” deep, rigorous statistical analysis”
Yah, right! The schist is deep.
Yes, deep, rigourous analysis of unsubstantiated assumptions. After they are done, it is still unsubstantiated.
“One of the biggest scientific surprises for me this year was the floods in Nigeria… They were made 80 times more likely as a result of climate change.”
How could the floods be such a big surprise to Otto if she knew they were 80 times more likely to happen? It doesn’t add up. I’d like to see the charts that show how floods in Africa are occurring 80 times more often than they used to. But why are floods only 80 times more likely to happen in Africa? What about the rest of the world? Why would climate change single out just one area of the globe? Has Nigeria been particularly naughty lately?
Strange the titles they come up with for the new groupings of Lysenkoists.
Mainstream science has long ago abandoned the authentic scientific method.
The world, including the science world today revolves around manufactured realities.
Just make up the reality that you want people to believe in…………that most people WANT TO believe in (which is why very few people fact check any of the climate DISinformation).
Create the convincing sounding fake facts/false narratives which gets repeated so many times that people accept it as the new Climate Religion.
We’re living in a climate optimum for life right now. Not in spite of CO2 but because of this beneficial gas that’s greening up the planet and causing the slight, mostly beneficial warming and best weather/climate in the past 1,000 years……..since the last time that it was this warm (Medieval Warm Period).
‘Thunderbergs’ are go!
Dedicated to saving victims from imaginary climate issues, the team equipped with the latest fast response rockets and jet transports, secretly stored on Greta Island can tackle anything.
With agents across the world such as Lady Phenomenal and her trusty butler/chauffeur Parker (named such, because he can park the six wheeled RR) the Rapid Response team are ready for any eventuality, providing it involves something requiring long distant first class travel that is.
The rescue team need a visible villain to lend substance to their travel jaunts, sorry, sorry I mean rescue missions, sorry about that. Step forward the Hood, a balding character that has a striking resemblance to Michael Mann.
As Lady Phenomenal develops her catch phrase of ‘Jolly Hockey Sticks’ at the end of every successful climate rescue mission, the syndication of the groups activities on Netflix looks a no brainer…..just like their antics.
False attribution is the basis for these idiotic claims. Circular reasoning locks their delusions into a closed loop of perception which no amount of logic, reason or empirical data can penetrate.
They start with a conclusion and then look for evidence to back it up.
If that is not the classic example of research bias I don’t know what is!
The is much worse than the infamous Doran and Zimmerman study where they set out to prove that 97% of “scientists” (where they had to keep changing the definition of “scientist” to make their point) believed global warming has a human cause.
Brief Saharan plumes to the UK, like in July 2019 (which Otto did an attribution study on), are dependent on negative North Atlantic Oscillation conditions for a wavier jet stream pattern.
While the consensus of IPCC and UK Met Office circulation models predict increasingly positive NAO conditions with rising CO2 forcing. Hence the MetO UK climate projections for milder wetter winters and warmer drier summers with more frequent and longer duration heatwaves.
We know that negative NAO increases during low solar periods, so that’s when to expect the Saharan plumes.
https://archive.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch10s10-3-5-6.html
Another star graduate of the Dr Josef Goebbels Institute of Truth…